CEO of Quora, working on Poe: @poe_platform
Bay Area
- Tweets 1,408
- Following 1,415
- Followers 110,507
- Likes 5,087
We are going fully remote first at Quora. Most of our employees have opted not to return to the office post-covid, I will not work out of the office, our leadership teams will not be located in the office, and all policies will orient around remote work. (1/2)
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Wild that the o3 results are public and yet the market still isn't pricing in AGI
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At Quora we recently tested switching from Zoom to Google Meet for a week. Google Meet is better in many small ways, but worse in one big way: audio quality, particularly background noise cancellation and echoing. That kills it so we are staying on Zoom!
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It’s so incredible that we are going to live through the creation of AGI. It will probably be the most important event in the history of the world and it will happen in our lifetimes.
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The pace of change right now is unbelievable. We are going to be living in a very different world a year from now.
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We are opening up a new role at Quora: a single engineer who will use AI to automate manual work across the company and increase employee productivity. I will work closely with this person.
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I think we are permanently done with AI winters. Endless summer from here on.
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We are excited to launch Poe for desktop today at poe.com. With this launch, between our existing iOS app this new web interface, we believe Poe is now the fastest and easiest way to talk to AI across iOS and all desktop platforms.
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Today, we are opening up public access to a new AI product we have been building called Poe. Poe lets people ask questions, get instant answers, and have back-and-forth conversations with several AI-powered bots. (1/n)
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I expect we will see continual progress from here to AGI, without any period that feels like a "winter". There are just too many obvious things left to be done. And the underlying exponential growth in compute has a very long way to go.
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One reason the AI boom is being underestimated is the GPU/TPU shortage. This shortage is causing all kinds of limits on product rollouts and model training but these are not visible. Instead all we see is Nvidia spiking in price. Things will accelerate once supply meets demand.
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I don't think people realize how bad this will be.
Technology is on the verge of being able to generate credible video and audio of anyone saying anything econ.st/2tTpzti
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I am very pro skilled immigration, but to build the biggest coalition it needs to be framed as “how we get the best people on our team so we can win” instead of “look how racist/selfish these people are to not want to allow it”
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We are excited to announce that Quora has raised $75M from Andreessen Horowitz. This funding will be used to accelerate the growth of Poe, and we expect the majority of it to be used to pay bot creators through our recently-launched creator monetization program. (thread)
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Today we are officially launching the Poe API to all developers. Details in thread below!
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Today we are launching Poe subscriptions, which will provide paying users with access to bots based on two powerful new language models: GPT-4 from OpenAI and Claude+ from Anthropic.
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Prompt engineering is a high art and I don't expect that to change even as models get more powerful.
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I'm excited to be joining the OpenAI board. I continue to think that work toward general AI (with safety in mind) is both important and underappreciated, and I'm happy to contribute to it.
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Today we are starting a beta test for a new product called Poe. Short for "Platform for Open Exploration", it lets people ask questions, get instant answers, and have back-and-forth dialogue with AI.
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Possibly the worst takeaway you could have from web3 being overhyped and then failing to deliver is that the optimism around AI means it will fail to deliver. If there was ever a case for first principles thinking or digging into details beating pattern matching this is it.
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Today we are launching creator monetization for Poe! This program lets any bot creator on Poe generate revenue. This is a major step forward for the platform and is the first program of its kind, so we are very excited to see what it lets everyone create. (thread)
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We are launching a new feature on Poe today: user-created bots. This initially allows anyone to create a new bot based on a short text prompt and an existing bot used as a base. We currently support Claude instant and ChatGPT as base bots.
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I have shared more about our reasoning and the benefits I see for Quora, our employees, and society more broadly in this blog post: quora.com/q/quora/Remote-Fir… (2/2)
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We (or our artificial descendants) will look back and divide history into pre-AGI and post-AGI eras, the way we look back at prehistoric vs "modern" times today.
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AGI (AI at avg human level for any job that can be done remotely) will massively impact GDP growth. We might expect >50%/year. Assuming a continuous run-up to AGI, we should expect GDP growth to start to accelerate as we get closer. When will this be noticeable in GDP metrics?
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AI is going to enable the creation and enforcement of laws 1000x as complex as we have today. This is mostly a good thing.
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Pattern matching AI as "the next platform shift" like the PC/internet/smartphone leads to significant underestimates of its potential.
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Building Poe feels very similar to early Quora in 2010 except everything is moving at 10x the speed.
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There is a category of formal proofs that various things are impossible: the halting problem, the traveling salesman problem, Arrow's theorem, etc. As a general rule, I don't like these and don't think they are very useful in building or thinking about real-world systems.
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It's common in in-person meetings to "go around the room" and have everyone share their view on a topic. This is much harder over Zoom since everyone sees the group in a different order, and eye contact doesn't work. My thoughts:
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I got used to Waymo in SF and now visiting other cities feels like going back in time
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Today we are adding an important new capability to Poe: multi-bot chat. This feature lets you easily chat with multiple models in a single thread. (1/n)
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Economists seem to consistently be the most dismissive of AI existential risk concerns, out of all groups of people who think seriously about the future. Why is this and what can we learn from it?
Finally and relatedly, we should really stop worrying about super intelligent, evil AI. I am impressed by, e.g., GPT-4, but it is NOT intelligent and will not take over the world.
It can make huge damage to inequality, wages and democracy without being super intelligent.
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A cool thing you can do with the features we launched today: upload a file and then share the conversation so others can ask questions of the AI about it. For example, here's today's court decision about the FTC vs. Microsoft + Activision Blizzard:
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Amazing to see Nvidia revenue already above Intel and Samsung when we are only one year into the AI boom. There are many orders of magnitude left to go.
The semiconductor industry is poised to see a new revenue leader emerge for the first time in three decades that isn't Intel or Samsung.
s.nikkei.com/3GTQmd8
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Poe for mobile web is launching for Android today, available at poe.com. With this launch, we believe @poe_platform is now the fastest and easiest way to talk to AI across all platforms, with real time sync so you can continue conversations across all devices.
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This paper, a very narrow result which I'm sure only holds under a lot of assumptions, provided a good Rorschach test for people's views on AI... surprising how many of them are expecting progress to stop.
New paper by Google provides evidence that transformers (GPT, etc) cannot generalize beyond their training data
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New consideration in choosing a programming language: how good are LLMs at writing it? Pushes the balance significantly toward Python and away from new languages, at least until the next step function increase in LLM power.
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Fine tuning is going to do two things:
1. Enable a much larger industry contributing to AI progress
2. Create much greater diversity in models and applications
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So weird that you gain status in the ML community by talking about how impossible AGI is, and it’s a taboo to be excited about it. Imagine if JFK or those running the Apollo program inspired their followers by saying “we won’t get to the moon anytime soon”.
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It has been a productive process the last three months working with Bret, Larry, Sam, and Greg to improve OpenAI’s governance. I’m excited to welcome Fidji, Nicole, and Sue today and am looking forward to working with Sam and the company.
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Someone is going to train a model to make professional-quality remixes of songs and it’s going to be awesome to be able to dial up the familiarity vs novelty of listening to any song you want. It will breathe new life into your relationship with all existing music.
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Good chance of major internet attack Nov 8th. Many groups have the ability and incentive. Maps outage alone could easily skew the election.
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A thread with some feedback from using Waymo the last few months as a very happy customer:
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I think "slop" is a great term in the current moment, but I also expect it will become dated within a few years as AI improves and its output generally gets to fewer inaccuracies than the human-created material it is compared against.
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Update: we crossed 100M monthly uniques on Quora: qr.ae/RJDzld
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A clue about why general intelligence evolved in humans first, and a lesson about the importance of scale.
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Unlike RIM, Apple has 200 billion in cash to buy its way into AI as it becomes important. Will be interesting to watch.
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It's now easy to use Langchain to power bots on Poe:
We're excited about the Poe API and have released a repository with some basic examples on how you can use @langchain and @FastAPI to build Poe handlers. Check it out here:
github.com/langchain-ai/lang…
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Today we’re introducing a new way for model developers and bot creators to generate revenue on @poe_platform: price per message! Creators can now set a per-message price for their bots and generate revenue every time a user messages them. Thread 👇
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A lot of philosophers have put time into trying to understand consciousness, but without the experience of trying to actually build systems that think, their speculation was fundamentally limited. I think Francois’ idea here is part of the story, and we will understand more soon.
"system 2 as iterated system 1 with a self-consistency guarantee" is something I considered a few years ago as one of two hypotheses, and it led me to an interesting potential interpretation of consciousness -- consciousness is the consistency guarantee. It explains why all system 2 processing involves consciousness.
Iterated system 1 with low self-consistency = dream-like, incoherent, ever shifting
Iterated system 1 with strong self-consistency guardrails = deliberate, coherent, self-correcting
The maintenance of strong self-consistency enforcing feedback loops between iterations is what consciousness emerges from.
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Just remember: we are only seeing ICOs of services started before it was obvious how much money could be raised. Far more will start now.
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If investors were anticipating unlimited human level knowledge work coming in the next few years the market would not look like this.
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Introducing the Poe API v2! This uniquely lets any bot on Poe query any other bot for free and use the output as input. Developers do not have to pay for this; instead the queries are covered under the *user's* normal message allocation on Poe.
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We just launched Poe for Android, providing access to ChatGPT, Claude, and all user-created bots across all platforms.
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My thoughts on the Twitter algorithmic timeline: quora.com/Why-are-Twitter-us…
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More generally, if I were running Zoom, I would create a platform for anyone to write simple web app overlays to enable all kinds of these mediated interactions. A different app might let people in a large meeting vote +1 or -1 in real time to signal support for a choice.
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I really enjoyed this conversation with Rick Rubin. We talked about the early days of Facebook, Quora, Poe, AGI, user-generated content, and vibe coding. Link in next tweet.
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We’re looking to hire a small number of experienced iOS and Android engineers to work on Poe. If you’re excited about making AI accessible to millions of people around the world, and being part of a talented and hard-working team in a fast-moving environment, we’d love to talk.
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What are the strongest arguments against the possibility of an outcome where strong AI is widely accessible but there is a “balance of power” between different AI systems (or humans empowered by AI) that enables the law to be enforced and otherwise maintains stability?
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Quora's new mission is to grow the world's collective intelligence. This company-wide mission encompasses both the Quora product and Poe. More below on what this means to us:
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We're opening our first international engineering office in Vancouver, initially focused on ML engineering. We chose Vancouver for three reasons:
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If you're interested, you can apply here: jobs.ashbyhq.com/quora/b0ef4…
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New post: 10-Year Exercise Periods Make Sense dangelo.quora.com/10-Year-Ex…
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But people who learn them don't typically remember all these limitations, and they end up drawing the wrong conclusions about what is possible, which tends to lead to conclusions about technology that are both pessimistic and wrong.
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We are launching an API for Poe today. Poe accounts can now be used to power Cursor, Cline, Roo Code, and anything else you or others build. All models and bots can be accessed via the API, and you can purchase points at cost to go beyond subscription limits. See thread below.
Introducing the Poe API for developers, with three important features:
1) Access to all models and bots on Poe across all modalities
2) A standard OpenAI-compatible chat completions interface
3) The ability to purchase points beyond subscription limits 🧵
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1) A lot of people are trying to forecast the coronavirus impact on Q2 US GDP right now. I have one small piece to add to the conversation. There is a Goldman Sachs forecast from Friday that is being widely misreported as -24% from Q1 to Q2. The forecast is actually for -7%.
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First Quora Dataset Release: Question Pairs data.quora.com/First-Quora-D…
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New: Poe Apps. Vibe code new visual interfaces for any combination of the 100+ models on Poe, and use others’ creations. You can make workflows, media editors, quizzes, and almost anything else. See thread in the linked post for details and much more to come in this direction!
Introducing Poe Apps: a new, easy way to create and use visual interfaces into any combination of the 100+ text, image, video, and audio models on Poe. (1/5)
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I bet they fix most of these in the next 6 months. Waymo is an amazing product that has made a real improvement on the quality of life in SF and I hope our governments don't strangle it.
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In practice, there is almost always a way to make technology do what you want. It may be a lot of work, it may be difficult, but it is rarely impossible.
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For this purpose, I define AGI as the ability to do anything a human can do while working at a computer with internet access (e.g. excluding robotics). I have less confidence in physical machines.
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If you are quoting pricing for an LLM, you should include speed numbers. Without any speed target it's easy for someone to crank up the batch size and lower costs but at the expense of speed.
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We are launching two new subscription options for Quora creators today. We want to make sharing knowledge more financially sustainable, which will in turn let people share more knowledge with the world. (1/n)
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Which AI product is currently the best at matching writing style given examples? Is there any eval for this?
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Zoom should add a feature for a person running the meeting to organize this. It could let them choose an order for others and then guide the group through the process, with a number over each person's video to show the order, and highlighting to show whose turn it currently is.
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In my view, this dynamic, combined with the ability for AI to accelerate its own progress, makes the advent of AI less like the internet and more like the industrial revolution. It should get society onto a permanently higher GDP growth rate, as long as we manage it well.
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My bet is this starts to happen within 4 years, e.g. measured US GDP growth is 3% instead of 2% and the change is largely attributed to AI. I am ignoring all the critiques about GDP being an imperfect measure of the economy here. I think it will be good enough for this purpose.
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These proofs typically apply in extremely narrow cases: worst-case adversarial input, needing to optimally maximize an outcome rather than find something good enough, or other assumptions hidden in axioms needed to make the proof work.
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The real world rarely fits the assumptions these proofs rely on. You can use an approximation that may not be 100% optimal but is likely good enough. You can find things that work in practice even if the theory says they may not always. You can re-structure your problem.
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Today's human-limited complexity means new laws often benefit 60% of people but are worse for the other 40% and it is a huge fight to make any progress. With AI-enabled unlimited complexity, "pareto" laws can be negotiated and passed that benefit every single member of society.
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We are also initially providing all Poe users with the ability to send 1 free message per day to both GPT-4 and Claude+. Other bots on Poe, including those based on ChatGPT and Claude, will continue to be free for unlimited usage.
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We are heavily investing in adding features and will be prioritizing the top requests from developers. You can get started by reading the documentation on our Github at github.com/poe-platform/api-… .
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1. Automation reduces employees per company
2. # of companies soars
3. Long term net employment not clearly negative
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This may sound too optimistic but you need to remember that in-person meetings are usually far from optimal. It takes a lot of work and skill to run a meeting well, and offloading this to the software could take a lot of burden off the moderator and greatly improve most meetings.
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There is now scientific evidence for the Sarno method for chronic back pain (and likely applies to RSI as well): dangelo.quora.com/Scientific…
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