Lubar Center Fellow, Marquette Law. Alum of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Chronicler of close Wisconsin elections.
Washington DC
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So reporting of Green Bay absentees nets Biden a gain of about 4K upping his lead to around 11K. that still doesn't include city of Kenosha which will add more to Biden total
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WI update: with Trump up almost 120K over Biden, not sure Biden can make that all up with MKE county absentees. there are other votes still out, including from Kenosha and Green Bay, and GOP votes still out there too. needless to say, have heard bullish things from both sides.
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on the new post-canvass Biden lead in WI of 20,608 votes:
compared to the earlier unofficial results posted by the WI Elections Commission, the Biden vote total increased by 170 and the Trump vote total decreased by 11, which results in a net increase of 181 in Biden's margin.
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Some on Twitter and elsewhere getting hung up on whether turnout in WI was suspiciously high (almost 3.3M) given number of reg. voters on Nov. 1 (3.7K). But WI has election-registration, and historically 300-500K register on el. day.
So nothing crazy about WI turnout 1/3
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Kenosha County has now updated its results to show a less than 3K Trump lead, which is a net gain of around 9 K for Biden, which will push his statewide lead up to 20K or so
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for the zillionth time, the idea that Biden had a suspiciously good performance in city of Milwaukee is bonkers
He got almost the same vote as Clinton in the city of MKE:
2016 Clinton wins city by 58 pts and 143,246 votes
2020 Biden wins city by 59 pts and 146,247 votes 1/4
“Biden underperformed Hillary Clinton in every major metro area around the country, save for Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta and Philadelphia ... in these big cities in swing states run by Democrats…the vote even exceeded the number of registered voters.”
thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11…
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WI recount hasn't begun but unofficial Trump lead of 22,177 is about to grow by 440 votes when an Oneida County reporting error is corrected
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Current poll consensus about Wisconsin could not be much worse for @realDonaldTrump who visits WI today:
@MULawPoll (6/14-18): Biden+8
NYT/Siena (6/8-18): Biden +11
Fox News: (5/30-6/2) Biden +9
common threads:
Trump's edge among men gone (!)
Dem voters more united then Reps.
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crazy thing about these bogus claims of "suspicious" 2020 turnout increase in WI is that biggest increases in total votes cast were overwhelmingly in smaller pro-Trump counties like Juneau and Adams (up 17%). Turnout in Dem MKE County grew less (under 4%) than any other WI county
Using the proper denominator for 2020 shows a Wis. turnout around 72%, firmly in the range of past presidential elections bit.ly/2Uamdy5
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I've heard back from 4 of WI's 5 House Repubs; all 4 say they'll vote to oust Liz Cheney from leadership. That includes Mike Gallagher, who publicly praised/backed Cheney in Feb when she was challenged. This time he says she "can no longer unify the House Republican conference"
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just talked to @chairmang (R-WI) who is sheltered in his office. "I mean, this is banana republic s--t. that's where we are."
"It is beyond shocking. This is the type of the stuff I saw in Iraq when I deployed" (he served in Iraq, USMC) 1/2
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feel stupid saying this but WI really feels like it could go either way ... it's going to depend on how disproportionately dem the absentee voters are in places like MKE, Green Bay, Kenosha, Wauwatosa, etc , along with whatever GOP votes are out there
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so it doesn't like there are any substantial GOP places left to report in WI, making it hard to see where Trump would get votes to close this still narrow gap
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Sen Ron Johnson still under water in new WI @MULawPoll : 36% fav 46% unfav, a net of -10, after being -12 in Feb and -6 and -7 in 2021.
By this time in previous cycle, he had climbed back to neutral favorability after being under water in 2015. But hasn’t happened yet in 2022
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In Waukesha County, seeing Harris outperforming Biden in a number of suburbs, which to me was expected. Way too soon to know what that means statewide
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In new @MULawPoll WI Sen. Ron Johnson is at 33% favorable/45% unfavorable. This is his highest unfavorable rating ever in the Marquette poll (dating back to 2013). Last 3 polls have been his 3 highest unfavs in 9-plus yrs of this poll. Up for re-election in Nov
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The idea that 2020 turnout in Milwaukee is “suspicious” is also bonkers.
City of Milwaukee was 1 of the only places in Wisconsin where turnout did NOT increase.
2016: 248K votes cast
2020: 248K votes cast
2/4
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This is a longtime Republican figure who is no longer a Walker supporter. I don't know how representative his reaction is, but I wonder if WI GOP has underestimated the negative perceptions outside its core supporters toward what they're doing in lame-duck session right now
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1/personal news: I’m retiring from Milwaukee Journal Sentinel after 35 yrs of battleground/swing state/ground zero/tipping point reporting
But not done! I'm starting a fellowship with the Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center, doing WI pol analysis that will appear in MJS this yr
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Again, early WI trend lines are Harris gains in suburbs and Trump gains in rural and small counties, which is exactly what you'd expect. that doesn't tell us yet which trend will be more powerful.
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the Republican WOW counties are almost all in.
conservative court margins in 2019 and 2020:
Waukesha: from +37 to +22
Ozaukee: from +25 to +12
Washington: from +50 to +36
W-O-W
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Dane County WI update with the county almost all in:
Biden wins Dane by >173K votes (53 pts)
Clinton won it by 146K, Obama by 132K
it's a staggering number.
but whether it's enough for Biden ... ?
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Whatever final WI margin is, pattern is striking: Trump lost further ground in same places he under-performed in 2016: Dane, Milwaukee, Waukesha, Ozaukee.
there was a >62K vote shift toward Dems in Dane + metro Milwaukee. (Trump gained elsewhere)
if Biden wins, that's why
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the same new UW/YouGov WI poll has very close Nov match-ups, with Trump trailing slightly vs Dems. Very diff from Quinn. poll. (UW sample in WI was +5 Dem, Q sample was +6 Rep).
bit.ly/37QseEj
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Dem margin in Dane County has already equaled Clinton's margin of 147,000 votes and Dane is still only at 85% of 2016 total vote, so a fair way to go. as suspected, it will deliver in a very big way for Biden.
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looks like Dane County is 100% in. Evers beat Walker by 150,000 votes. The Dem margin over Walker in 2014 was about 102,000 votes. that is a mind-boggling increase in Dem margin from one Walker race to another.
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just to update these numbers, it's now 1,451,462 WI ballots returned out of 1,771,503 ballots sent out, for a difference of 320K. and here is what those people can do if they've been sent an absentee ballot but want to vote in person instead: bit.ly/31Ojxdp
This is remarkable .. 79% of requested absentee ballots in Wisconsin have been returned a week before the election nytimes.com/live/2020/10/27/…
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so it looks like Biden edge in Milwaukee County is now at least 184K, which compares to Clinton's 2016 margin of 163K
.@JoeBiden is now leading President Trump in Wisconsin
projects.jsonline.com/topics…
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my poll dive into where Biden 2020 is most outperforming Clinton 2016 in WI, including white non college women (Clinton lost by 16 in exits; Biden up by 6 per @MULawPoll ) and voters outside MKE, MSN dmas. HRC lost them by 15; Biden tied per @MULawPoll
bit.ly/2YjWSnK
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Dane still not all in, but Biden up by 161K so far.
Clinton won Dane by 146K
Obama won Dane by 132K
Kerry won Dane by 91K
Gore won Dane by 67K
Clinton won Dane by 50 K
you get the idea ...
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and of course nobody measures turnout in WI as a pctg of pre-election registered voters, because WI has same-day registration and tons of voters register on election day, as always. Everyone in both parties in WI knows all this
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it's not just Milwaukee left to report, but Milwaukee's nearly 170K absentees will have by far the biggest impact on the race. still waiting on Green Bay and Kenosha and part of West Bend absentees, at least
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Biden DID do better than Clinton in the COUNTY of Milwaukee -- because he did better in the suburbs, just like he did nationally.
But even in the county of MKE, turnout rose less than it did in all but 1 other county in WI
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in new @MULawPoll in WI, Sanders jumps out to Dem primary lead with 29% followed by:
Bloomberg 17%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 13%
Klobuchar 11%
Warren 9%
In Jan @MULawPoll it was:
Biden: 23%
Sanders: 19%
Buttigieg: 15%
Warren: 14%
Bloomberg: 6%
Yang: 6%
Klobuchar: 4%
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WI posted new figures tonight showing absentee ballots returned are now just shy of 1M (990,129). they are clearly headed past 1 million and will still be counted until April 13 if postmarked by election day. the figure this a.m. had been 864,750. just shy of 1.3M were requested
Ballots must be postmarked today but may arrive until April 13.
As of 7:30 am today 1273374 ballots had been sent. So as of 8 tonight 77.76% return rate. Usual is 80-85%. More to come in before 4/13.
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WI turnout right now is 3.2M+.
That is 72%+ of the state’s 4.5M+ voting-age adults.
That’s high, but it’s not even a record.
2004: 73.2
2008: 69.2
2012: 70.1
2016: 67.3
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This Washington Post write-up of new @TimAlberta book on Trump and GOP portrays a Paul Ryan far more open with Alberta about his alarm over Trump than he was in public as speaker, or even as ex-speaker until now ...
Paul Ryan tells @TimAlberta the presidency is in worse shape now because there are no longer people like him to stop “knee-jerk” reactions. And, now out of office with no power, he says a lot more. washingtonpost.com/politics/…
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Just interviewed @SenRonJohnson who holds hearing tomorrow on election "irregularities."
He said he acknowledges Biden's victory. Asked if the election was legitimate, he said, "Yes."
Contends there were "irregularities" but hasn't seen anything that would alter the outcome 1/2
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Wisconsin's Supreme Court race doesn't look all that suspenseful -- another "wake-up call" for Republicans in WI, another sign of energized Dems/progressives -- 81% for Dallet in Dane is remarkable
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pretty stunning turnout in WI in 2018
unofficial count right now is more than 2.6 million votes cast, which is more than the 2012 recall, and looks like almost 60% of voting-age population, which is off the charts for a mid-term and bigger than many states achieve for president
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On top of which, the next two court seats up in 2026 and 2027 are now held by conservatives, so next opportunity to win a WI court majority for conservatives won't happen until 2028, and that assumes they win in both 26 and 27
Conservatives once had what seemed like an insurmountable 5-2 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. They've now lost 4 out of the last 5 races and are in a 4-3 minority.
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Dane County in WI cast more Dem votes for gov this year (at least 232K) than it did for president in 2016 (218K for Clinton) or 2012 (216K for Obama) !!!
Again, pop. growth plus both the city of Madison and esp. its suburbs getting bluer and bluer ...
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In huge shift since '16,Trump now more pop. than Ryan w GOP voters in Ryan's state.A WI polling dive into GOP duo
bit.ly/2nzRPxl
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we just went through a roller coaster ride in WI.
and you know what?
right now it's only the state's third closest presidential race since 2000.
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acc. to FOX 11 news, Dem Caleb Frostman is beating Repub Andre Jacque by 4 pts and 1000 votes with 91% precincts reporting in WI state Senate district Trump won by 18 in 2016 and Walker won by 23 in 2014
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@SenRonJohnson of WI will lose his Homeland Security chairmanship whatever happens in GA due to GOP term limits on chairs.
If GOP holds Senate, he'll chair the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.
If Dems win both GA seats, Johnson loses that investigative power
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it looks like Republican Washington County is now in (it added another 8K votes). Biden is now up 8K with city of Kenosha and Green Bay still to report. not sure what other GOP communities are still out there
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so suburban Waukesha doesn't seem to be bouncing back for GOP in WI tonite. with 94% in, Ron Johnson is up by 25.4 pts. he won Wauksha by 37.7 in '16. In Gov race, GOP lead is 20.5 compared to 34 pt margin in 2018.
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the small central WI county of Juneau (11K+ votes) is an example of rural county that shifted hugely from Obama to Trump, and hasn't snapped back at all, which is pretty remarkable
2012: Obama plus 7
2016: Trump plus 26
2020 right now: Trump plus 29
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30 yrs ago, in 1988 - the last time WI had big contested primaries in both parties - Dane County produced around 18,000 GOP votes and 52,000 Dem votes.
so far tonight it has produced around 18,000 GOP votes and more than 100,000 Dem votes.
#WIPrimary
bit.ly/2Msv2AX
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My look at WI Gov. Tony Evers' polling numbers. Like most guvs, his approval has risen in pandemic. But since he took office he has been less polarizing than predecessor Scott Walker and has gotten higher approval from the other party's voters than other pol. figures in WI
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in the WI exits, Trump was viewed unfavorably by 63% of voters, but he won 21% of those voters who don't like him.
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not to beat a dead horse, but Dane County ...
Dem margin there of 181,368 was:
almost as big as Milwaukee County margin (!)
35K bigger than Clinton's 2016 margin
49K bigger than Obama's 2012 margin
growth in Dane margin (35K) bigger than Biden's current WI lead (21K)
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Fond du Lac County with what appears to be full reporting, it's Trump 62 to 36
in 2016: it was Trump 60 to 34
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numbers of times states have been decided by <1 pt for president since 2000:
WI: 4 (00 04 16 20)
PA: 2 (16 20)
FL: 2 (00 12)
IA: 2 (00 04)
NM: 2 (00 04)
no other state more than once
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in Feb intra-party challenge to Cheney, WI's Mike Gallagher had said GOP needed Liz Cheney's leadership and “we must be a big-tent party, or else condemn ourselves to irrelevance.”
this time he'll vote to oust Cheney. Full statement below:
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Likeliest explanation for Dem lead in WI Sen disappearing from Marquette’s Aug poll to new Sept poll is simplest:
Aug poll (Barnes 52-45 over Johnson) caught Barnes at high pt after primary win but before he drew heavy gen election ad fire. Now race is virtually tied 1/3
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Republican Jim Sensenbrenner of WI just told WISN’s Mark Belling he won’t seek a 22nd term in Congress. He’s 76 and second in seniority in the House, having served since '79. His district includes the state’s highest-turnout GOP communities in the suburbs and exurbs outside MKE
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Here's the surge in Dem enthusiasm in WI, closing a big enthusiasm gap with Repub. voters dating back to last fall per last 5 Marquette polls, based on % of voters who are “very enthusiastic” about voting for Pres in Nov (includes indep. voters who lean toward 1 party) @MULawPoll
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in zoom presser, WI Dem chair Wikler and natl Dem chair Perez called for mail-only voting in WI's May congressional special, said Republicans tried to steal April 7 el., said "every legal option is on the table" over April outcome, called it "voter suppression on steroids."
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WI's Ron Johnson is one of 11 senators (all Republicans) who voted against the Trump impeachment trial rules agreed to by leadership of both parties
11 GOP NAYs on the bipartisan rules for the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection
CRUZ
HAGERTY
HAWLEY
JOHNSON
LEE
MARSHALL
PAUL
RUBIO
SCOTT
SCOTT
TUBERVILLE
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90% of suburban Waukesha is in and Republican Michels is leading Dem Evers by 21 points for WI governor.
But GOP Gov Walker won Waukesha by 33.6 % in 2018 and 45.6% in 2014.
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Whatever your position on recusal, I think Protasiewicz made an accurate statement when she called WI's leg. maps "rigged." The share of R and D seats is overwhelmingly predetermined by the (very partisan) map and predictable (within a seat or 2) long before any votes are cast:
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Biden carried the relatively small el. day vote in the city of Milwaukee by only 60-29, per county web site. which suggests that the absentee vote is going to be even more Dem than you would expect the city as a whole to be. which suggests the absentee vote will be very lopsided
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Dane County has hit 80% of its 2016 turnout -- tops in WI. Though the Dane factor in Trump v Biden doesn't get as much attention as Milwaukee or WOW counties or rural vote or even Green Bay/Fox Valley, it could matter a lot for the following reasons 1/2
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Went to GOP Cong. Jim Sensenbrenner's town hall this morning in the Wisconsin town of Rubicon (pop 2,249) and just 1 constituent showed up. Dave Mantz had the floor to himself. The two politely discussed their differences on net neutrality ... then discussed them a little more
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WI's very red "WOW" counties outside Milwaukee are no longer a deep red bloc as some suburbs, esp. along MKE county line, grow more purple, like Mequon below Cedarburg (above Mequon) became 1st "WOW" community to vote Dem for pres since 1996 1/4
story: bit.ly/3kPUpcX
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looked at some differences btw Biden's lead in WI and Clinton's lead 4 yrs ago:
fewer undecided voters this time
fewer voters dislike both R and D candidates (these voters helped swing WI for Trump in '16).
more volatile news environment but more stable polls/public opinion
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spent a week in rural swingy SW WI ("Obama-Trump" country) where frustration with politics is unabated a year after region swung hard to Trump. first in a periodic series I'm doing on political winds in WI in Trump era.
bit.ly/2jgh9J4
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i can't recall a contested/competitive statewide election of any kind in WI where the liberal or Dem candidate got 80% of the Dane County vote, as Dallet is on track to get in WI Sup Court race. Is there one? Herb Kohl didn't even hit 80% in Dane in blow-out '06 Senate victory
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Biden leads Trump 53% to 44% in WI in new UW-Madison ERC panel survey, which finds Biden with huge edge among those who have already voted (73% to 26%) and Trump leading among larger grp of voters yet to vote (57% to 39%)
Biden led by 4 pts in Sept. poll
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pretty stark numbers for pols in both parties in WI in new Marquette poll:
Biden (D) approval: -10
Gov Evers (D) approval: -1
Sen Johnson (R) fav: -6
Sen Baldwin (D) fav: -1
Trump (R) fav: -17
Evers: 40% reelect; 53% someone else
Johnson: 38% reelect; 52% someone else
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how people say they plan to vote in coming elections in WI per @MULawPoll May survey
Dems: 66% by mail
Indies: 41% by mail
Reps: 25% by mail
pretty dramatic
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@SenRonJohnson of WI votes against the objection to PA's Biden victory, as he voted against the objection to AZ's Biden victory. This after last weekend saying he would join in objecting to Biden elections.
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Growth in votes cast from 2016 to 2020 was a bit more than 10% statewide. That increase was highest in Repub counties, and in small counties Trump won by 20+ points.
Increase was lowest in the biggest Dem county, Milwaukee, where total votes cast went up just 4%
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Gallagher said this "undermines the argument that there is no cost to having this debate" when objections were doomed to fail yet 1000s were told election could be overturned and now people storming Capitol "want to overturn the results of the election" 2/2
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Thread worth reading on recount in Dane County WI. As others have observed, the Trump/GOP goal is not a "recount" in the sense of counting the ballots again to see if there were errors. It's an effort to toss 1000s of ballots in state's 2 big Dem counties
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just some back of the envelope math: Biden right now is trailing Trump by 100K. there are almost 170K city of Milwaukee ballots still to be counted. it's quite plausible those could net Biden 100K or more. that doesn't factor in outstanding votes elsewhere in WI
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Dem raw vote margin in Dane County in WI gov is already bigger than 2018 and it's still below 90% reporting.
current margin is 152,247 (Evers 206,750, Michels 54,503). 2018 Evers margin was 150,846.
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City of Milwaukee counts its absentees (almost 170K) separately from election day vote and they get reported later because of the volume, etc. this was expected
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Hovde's numbers in this statement are wrong. He says Baldwin got "nearly 90%" of the absentee ballots in city of MKE. She actually got just over 80%, which is hardly shocking, since she got 74% of the election day vote in the city. Nothing strange about the MKE vote!
Many people have reached out to me with concerns about the voting inconsistencies we experienced on Election Day. Here are my thoughts:
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outgoing Mayor Tom Barrett is only the 4th elected mayor of Milwaukee since 1945 (!)
Frank Zeidler 1948-60
Henry Maier 1960-88
John Norquist 1988-04
Tom Barrett 2004 to present
and none of them were ever defeated, they just left.
the electoral wheels turn slowly in Milwaukee
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is expected to be named ambassador to Luxembourg by President Biden jsonline.com/story/news/loca…
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the troubling thing for Scott Walker right now is that he remains deadlocked with Evers with fewer and fewer votes in red counties left to be counted, and all those MKE County absentee ballots still to be counted
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As others have noted, timing of overnight tally of almost 170K city MKE votes was entirely expected and forewarned. And rather than being "strange," the lopsided Biden tally gave him almost exactly the same final vote margin (59 points) in the city of MKE that Clinton got in 2016
Look at this in Wisconsin! A day AFTER the election, Biden receives a dump of 143,379 votes at 3:42AM, when they learned he was losing badly. This is unbelievable!
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Dane County appears to be responsible for more than a third of WI's total raw population growth in the decade, per Census (and grew at a much faster rate than any other county)
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This striking WI poll number – Barnes up 7 over Sen Ron Johnson – says less about Barnes (who isn’t well known) than about Johnson, who has been 5 to 10 pts under water (fav/unfav) for > 1 yr @MULawPoll
In new Marquette Law School Poll, 51% of registered WI voters support Democrat Mandela Barnes, 44% support Republican Ron Johnson in US Senate race. In June @mulawpoll, it was Barnes 46% and Johnson 44%. #mulawpoll
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along with this pt below, worth noting that as Trump seeks to toss all in-person early votes in Dem Dane/Milwaukee, the top 6 WI counties where in-person early made up the highest share of all votes were:
Racine
Washington
Ozaukee
Waukesha
Walworth
Kenosha
all voted for Trump
Republicans built the Wisconsin voting system that President Donald Trump is attacking bit.ly/2J9y0dN
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So Milwaukee County in the end saw only very modest growth in turnout over 2016. but Biden won it more than 40 points after Clinton won it by 37.
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In addition to having Biden up 9 over Trump, new Fox News WI poll also suggests an enthusiasm gap between Dems and Reps, which hasn't shown in 2020 Marquette polling.
"extremely motivated" about election: Dems 70% Reps 62%
"extremely interested" in election: Dems 58% Reps 51%
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what's happening w absentee ballot requests is remarkable to me. Dane County had almost 68,000 absentee ballot requests as of today for April 7 vote. in Nov election of 2018 there were only 166,000 mail-in votes cast STATEWIDE. it's spiking across the state. preview of fall?
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Ron Johnson said in a WI radio interview today that "I just don’t think Joe Biden ever should have run for president" and said "our investigations" will "reveal that this is not somebody we should be electing president"
Asked Senate Homeland Security Chairman Ron Johnson how his upcoming Ukraine report will reflect on Joe Biden.
“I don’t think it will reflect well on him,” the GOP chairman told me. Asked to expand on that, “You’ll see when you get the report.” Johnson wouldn’t detail a timeline
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Waukesha saw the biggest net vote shift of any WI county from 2018 gov to 2022 gov: almost 29K votes.
2018: Walker wins Wauk by 75K
2022: Michels wins Wauk by just around 46K
second biggest shift: Dane County: 22K
18: Evers wins Dane by 151K
22: Evers wins Dane by 173K
Big drop in Waukesha county for GOP. Walker '18 received 66%. Michels only pulled 60%. This was key to Evers win, IMO.
Can't wait to see how election deniers blame this on DEM fraud.
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Republican County chair in Fond du Lac County, WI openly calls out US Senator from his party for seeking to overturn presidential election result:
Ron Johnson is a perfect example of what happened to the GOP. He was a TEA Party outsider who talked about budget deficits, Entitlement Reform, the Debt Bomb, and the incursion of big government. Accomplished none of those things and today will vote to overturn an election. Sad!
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state Dem chair declares victory in WI nitter.app/benwikler/status/13239…
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current Dem raw vote margin for Gov in Dane (158K) at 89% precincts in is already bigger than the Dem raw vote margin for PRES in both 2016 and 2012, which tells you a lot about:
how Dane has grown in pop.
how much bluer it keeps getting
how helpful that is to Dems statewide
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the new absentee totals bring MKE County Dem margin for Evers to close to 140,000. that would seem to be the ballgame ...
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new WI poll by Suffolk is the latest piece of evidence that right now, Dem Sen. Tammy Baldwin is in better shape for re-election than GOP Gov Scott Walker:
Walker 44 Evers 46
Baldwin 50 Vukmir 42
bit.ly/2okS7HT
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