The real world constraints for hashrate growth are becoming very serious in my opinion. Let me explain.
If network hashrate were to grow at 40% year YOY for the next 4 years. This would put hashrate around 2,900 EH. That means between years 3 and 4 there would need to be just under 1,000 EH added in just one year... more than the entire network right now. In one year...
We are going to have to compete directly with the MAG 7 companies for chips and energy now. I don't like our odds competing against them for these valuable resources. They can simply outbid us for both.
Adding 1,000 EH is in insane amount of ASICs and energy. There would need to be 5,000,000 new generation 200TH ASICs consuming 3.5 kwh of power. That's 17.5 GW of low cost power. Keep in mind this is just in one year.
What does this all mean for Bitcoin miners? We are going to have a really difficult time keeping up with Bitcoin price. It's well within reason we see Bitcoin price increase 40% YOY this cycle, some people would even say that's bearish lol
One involves manufacturing millions of ASICs, adding gigawatts of power, transformers, containers, repair techs, etc. While moving the price of Bitcoin is as easy as clicking buttons on a computer... I don't see how we can possibly keep up. Buying $1,000 of Bitcoin versus buying $1,000,000,000 as basically the same amount of work. Move the money and click buy.
This is where all the money is made mining. When hashrate cannot keep up with price.
Would love to hear your thoughts, as this is something I have been thinking about A LOT.