This is the official Twitter account for WhatScotlandThinks.org, run by @ScotCen. Tweets by John Curtice.
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On how the waves from Westminster have washed over @ScotTories but left @TheSNP citadel untouched. bit.ly/3McNEkF
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New @finoutnow poll for @ScotNational. #indyref2 vi (excl DK): Yes 54 (n/c); No 46 (n/c). Fwork 11-18.1.23 (ch since 1-8.12.22). bit.ly/3D2qTww
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The headline figure in today's @ScotlandinUnion poll of Remain in the UK 57; Leave 43, is in line with previous readings of this question and thus is consistent with other post-#SP21 polls of #indyref2 that have suggested no change. bit.ly/3lt8AXl
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Latest @OpiniumResearch @SkyNews poll. #Indyref2 vote intentions: Yes 51 (+1); No 49 (-1). Fwork 2-8.9 (ch since 28.4-3.5). bit.ly/2XcL9d7
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How much impact is the police investigation into @theSNP's finances having on @theSNP and #indyref2 support so far? bit.ly/461xRyI
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New @Survation poll for @Quantum_Comms.
SNP 38 (+2)
Lab 33 (-1)
Con 15 (-1)
LD 8 (n/c).
Fwork 14-20.2 (ch since 23-25.1).
survation.com/https-www-surv…
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More from the latest @Panelbase @SundayTimesScot poll - this week on attitudes towards holding #indyref2. bit.ly/306L1rJ
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Actually, note that most of the fieldwork for the @YouGov @ScotlandinUnion poll on holding #indyref2 in 2023 was undertaken BEFORE Tuesday's announcement.
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Now Released. Corrected figures for @HanburyStrategy #indyref2 poll reported in @SundayTimesScot. 12.2-1.3; Yes 56, No 44; 5-9.3: Yes 53 No 47. So drop in Yes between 2 polls was 3, not 6. bit.ly/3vORGXX
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Vote intentions for #indyref2 in @PanelbaseMD ScotGoesPop poll (excl Don't Knows). Yes 47 (-1); No 53 (+1). Fwork 20-26.10 (ch since 6-10.9). bit.ly/3ouYAz0
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On how @AnasSarwar's hopes of becoming FM are fading - and how @reformparty_uk are splitting the unionist vote. thetimes.com/uk/scotland/art…
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from @OpiniumResearch's recent poll. SGP voters (on either ballot): Sturgeon favourable: 87; unfavourable 13. Equivalent figures for Salmond: 12 & 85.
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A correction to its estimates of #indyref2 and #SP21 vote intentions in Dec, Jan & Feb has been issued by @SavantaComRes. See bit.ly/3rt48tV. Main effect is to reduce estimated support for Yes & @theSNP in those polls. Corrected figures now show on our site.
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Note size of the Scottish sample.
NEW - Scottish independence referendum polling:
🏴 Should Scotland be an independent country?
▶️ Yes 39%
▶️ No 46%
▶️ Don’t Know 15%
501 questioned Wed & Thu. Weighted and representative of the population of Scotland.
Details & Data - technetracker.co.uk
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Average of the 5 polls published in last 24 hours
SNP 49/38
Con 22/22
Lab 21/18
Green - /10
LD 7/6
Alba -/3
On a uniform projection = 64 SNP seats.
In short polls suggest 50/50 chance of SNP overall majority.
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On today's @SavantaComRes @thescotsman poll. Without turnout weighting #indyref2 vi = Yes 43; No 46. This is unchanged from equivalent figures in @SavantaComRes' previous poll in early Feb. Turnout weighting had a particularly marked impact in that poll bit.ly/3rt48tV
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The poll of #ge19 vote intentions in #Scotland released today by @YouGov (but fwork 23-25.10) is the first ever to put @scottishlabour in fourth place.
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From today's @PanebaseMD @bizforscotland poll in today's @ScotNational.
#indyref2 vi (excl DKs):
Yes 50 (+1)
No 50 (-1).
Fwork 5-7.10 (ch since 13-17.8)
bit.ly/3CDZ0tD
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Perhaps the most striking finding in the latest @Survation @progressscot poll is that 43% do not know what impact the Internal Markets Bill will have on devolution. Looks as though neither side is winning this particular argument.
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On today's @Panelbase @SundayTimesSco poll, which shows Yes 46 No 47. When Don't Knows are excluded numbers are Yes 50 No 50. Same happened on most recent @Survation @Daily_Record poll - 1 pt No lead with DKs in; none w/out. In both cases just 2-3 more people said No than Yes!
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Today's @Survation @ScotlandinUnion poll is far from the first to find that voters are opposed to an early #indyref2. See, for example, bit.ly/3k28zuF
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For clarity, this post is not in any way connected with @WhatScotsThink
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Thanks to @WingsScotland our figures for @Panelbase Sept 2016 now reflect the co's post-publication corrections. bit.ly/2lbF5c7
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Three polls since @HumzaYousaf became @theSNP leader:
average #indyref2 Yes = 48% Same 3 polls mid Feb = 47%
average @theSNP vi for Westminster = 38%. Same 3 polls mid Feb = 41%.
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As @BorisJohnson prepares to come north later this week, at midnight tonight we will publish a new blog on the most recent political polling in #Scotland. #indyref #SP21 #Brexit #CoronavirusScotland
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New @StackStrat @ukonward poll of #indyref2 vote intentions. Yes 45 (-3); No 49 )+1). Fwork 1-8.9 (ch since 7-8.5). bit.ly/3A8n5q5
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Average @theSNP Westminster support in 4 polls conducted between election of @HumzaYousaf and arrest of @PeterMurrell; 38%. Average in 5 polls conducted since that arrest; 38%. bit.ly/45Zrnk8
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Report in @TheScotsman of new @Survation poll for @scotlandinunion which asks #indyref2 vote intentions using the language of the #EUref ballot. 60% Remain in UK; 40% Leave (excl DKs). bit.ly/2qUwhfX
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From latest @Survation @scotlandinunion poll.
Remain in UK 51 (-1)
Leave UK 36 (-2)
Fwork 28-29.9 (ch since 29.4-3.5).
bit.ly/2ZOQHZn
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Here is @WingsScotland's take on the @NatCen @ScotCen #bsa35 #ssa17 research on the impact of #Brexit on Scottish politics we published last night. bit.ly/2HxfzsO
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On the challenge posed to both unionists and nationalists by today's @YouGov @timesscotland poll. bit.ly/3VUj5Eq
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Report of latest @PanelbaseMD @SundayTimesScot poll of attitudes towards #indyref2. #SNP21 bit.ly/2XbCUO4
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Report of first poll of #indyref2 vote intentions since the death of #QueenElizabeth. Note though the relatively small sample size (659) and that @DeltapollUK have not previously polled on this subject north of the border. bit.ly/3SfXqnY
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The 45% vote for @theSNP on the constituency vote in today's @PanelbaseMD ScotGoesPop is the lowest for the party in any poll since #ge19. bit.ly/2Sq9O8m
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From @SavantaComRes @TheEconomist poll:
Holyrood vi - regional
Con 21 (+3)
Lab 20 (n/c)
Lib Dem 8 (-1)
SNP 34 (-4)
Greens 14 (+2)
Record high Green rating (previous high = 13%)
Fwork 24-28.2 (ch since 14-18.1)
bit.ly/3tYXiyZ
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Seat projection for today's @PanelbaseMD @SundayTimesScot poll is based on assumption of uniform change since 2016 for parties that fought that election, but a party's % share of vote by region in the poll for those that did not. Given poll's size, inevitably highly uncertain.
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Brief upsum of latest #SP21 polling. bbc.in/3sW5flU
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Latest @YouGov poll confirms how #Brexit has reshaped #indyref vote intentions. 34% of Yes/Leave voters now say 'No'; 27% of No/Remainers (who are far more numerous) now say 'Yes'. bit.ly/2VlU74H
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More polling from @PanelbaseMD (for @BizforScotland) suggests that it is not just in #Scotland that @NicolaSturgeon is more likely than @BorisJohnson to be thought to be handing #corinavirus well. bit.ly/2Csa3L1
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New @tnsbmrb #indyref2 poll. Yes 47 No 53. 6% swing to No since last reading in Sept. 15.
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3 polls have now shown @NicolaSturgeon's popularity falling. bit.ly/2cRXokx, bit.ly/2d8UKJr & bit.ly/2cXgQLu
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New post & briefing on whether #Scotland wants a different kind of #Brexit? It seems mostly not. bit.ly/2oAV4lM @ukandeu
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New polling by @Survation for @scotlandinunion. Excl. DKs. Remain in UK 61 (+1); Leave UK 39 (-1). Fwork 18-23.4.19 (Ch since 9-13.11.18). Not the question asked in the 2014 referendum.
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A comment on the possible implications of #EP2019 in #Scotland for the #indyref2 debate. bit.ly/2W51bmT
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My take on the @Panelbase @SundayTimesScot poll, which suggests the decline in @theSNP and Yes support (which began at the turn of the year) is about more than the #SalmondInquiry. bit.ly/2PxSeki
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The level of support for Yes in #indyref2 vote intentions is the highest in any @Panelbase poll since Sept. 2016. bit.ly/2DMNCzR
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Note that today's @Survation poll for @scotlandinunion shows no significant change in attitudes towards remaining/leaving the UK as compared with 2 previous readings of the same question. bit.ly/2lZbBnS
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Details of @StackStrat @scottish_future polling on identity and values in Scotland, England & Wales released today can be found at bit.ly/3EmhK0O
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Report of new @OpiniumResearch @Sunday_Mail poll suggesting all @ScotTories Westminster seats are at risk in wake of #PartyGate is at bit.ly/3EsqWjk
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New @SavantaComRes @TheScotsman poll. #Indyref2 vote intentions (excluding DK): Yes 48 (+1); No 52 (-1). Fwork 3-9.9 (ch since 11-14.5). bit.ly/3hjGGMu
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New @YouGov poll. @ScotParl vote intention (Const/List): SNP 54/45; Con 23/23; Lab 12/12; LD 8/7; Grn 2/8. Fwork 24-27.4.20. bit.ly/2WipUSF
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Latest @Survation @ScotlandinUnion poll. #Scotland should remain in the UK 57 (+1); leave the UK 43 (-1). DKs excluded. Fwork 9-12.3.21 (ch since 10-12.9.20). bit.ly/2OX4pXI
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New @Panelbase @SundayTimesScot poll suggests @theSNP & @scotgp currently heading for less than 65 seats in @ScotParl election, while 44% back independence. bit.ly/2JIKGaW
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New post and analysis paper (with @IanMontagu using @ScotCen #ssa19 data) on the role that #Brexit has played in influencing attitudes towards how #Scotland should be governed. bit.ly/2Jwubzn
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New post on 3 lessons from the first round of #SP21 polling that the parties will need to take on board when campaigning restarts. bit.ly/3mBYBzC
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On the reasons behind @theSNP support. bit.ly/45jjHbd
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New post on today's @YouGov @thetimesscot poll that puts support for Yes in #indyref2 at 53%. bit.ly/2Cin4am
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Analysis of today's @PanelbaseMD @timescotland poll. bit.ly/3qQw0Nh
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Results of new @Panelbase @WingsScotland are gradually appearing. First instalments at bit.ly/2HvviZv
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Re today's @TNS_UK #idyref2 poll. When 3 polls find no change and 1 finds a swing, latter could be chance variation. bit.ly/2czgtf1
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Figures from @Survation @Daily_Record poll suggests suggest fall in support for @scottishlabour. bit.ly/2L1YcpZ
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Although the options offered were a little different from last time (see the notes) today's @Survation @ScotlandinUnion poll seems to show an increase in support for holding #indref2 within 5 years. bit.ly/2lW7kkS
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In the midst of the interest aroused by today's @IpsosMORIScot poll, showing 58% support for Yes in #indyref2, it should be borne in mind that over the weekend @SavantaComRes reported 53% Yes in a poll that was conducted at the same time as today's. bit.ly/2GPnesk
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New @YouGov @thetimesscot poll. 60% don't know how well @LabourRichard is doing; @theSNP @ScotParl support lowest in @YouGov since #indyref. bit.ly/2mKoGPq & bit.ly/2FM1I2i
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Some interesting observations on @ScottishLabour polling from @rachelormston @IpsosScotland. bit.ly/3jvmUBQ
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Westminster vi for today's 3 #Scotland polls are all very similar.
Average of the 3 is as follows:
Con 14. (-9)
Lab 31 (+12)
LD 7 (-3)
SNP 45 (n/c).
Changes since 2019 election.
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From new @Survation poll for True North. #indyref2 vi (excl DKs): Yes 46 (-1); No 54 (+1). Fwork 10-12.1.23 (ch since 5-9.8.22). bit.ly/3GUCDm6
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ICYMI: Yesterday's @Panelbase poll also replicates the finding from @Survation's last poll that support for @theSNP on the @ScotParl constituency vote may have slipped below 40%. bit.ly/2C0tDtc
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Except that @indyref2 vote intentions not weighted by turnout are available in the detailed tables of previous @SavantaComRes polls
Seeing a lot of comments on here that the comres scottish poll "wasnt weighted". It almost certainly was weighted by all the usual demogs (age, gender, etc), so a legit poll.
Just not additionally weighted by turnout, unlike their previous polls, so not comparable to them.
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4 polls of #indyref2 vote intentions have been published since Thursday. Average = Yes 49; No 51. In late April/early May the average in these same 4 polls = Yes 50; No 50. bit.ly/2GPnesk
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Yes are ahead by just 1 (weighted) respondent in tonight's @Survation poll. It just happens to push Yes up to the next integer. Without DKs it's 50-50.
Drama as Yes storms back into the lead in Survation poll -
scotgoespop.blogspot.com/202… #sp21 #indyref2
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Polling by @PanelbaseMD for Wings over Scotland on @NicolaSturgeon's achievements as Scotland First Minister reported at bit.ly/3crZI0q
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Note that a correction has been made to the figures for #indyref2 vote intentions in the latest @YouGov @thetimesscot poll. Corrected figures (excl DKs) are Yes 47, No 53 - not Yes 45, No 55 as initially reported. bit.ly/3vHAv9V
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There are some slight differences in the administration and weighting of the question from previously, but it seems that the 'Remain/Leave the UK' question asked on the latest @Survation @ScotlandinUnion poll also shows a decline a support for the Union. bit.ly/2ZOQHZn
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20 yrs after devolution referendum, new @SundayTimesScot @Panelbase poll on impact of @ScotParl. bit.ly/2eXf8Q9
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New guest post from @eichhorn_jan: Who might be willing to back @AlexSalmond's @AlbaParty? bit.ly/3w6aMZV
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New @Panelbase poll: local elex vi for @WingsScotland: SNP 47 (+15 on 2012) Con 26 (+13) Lab 14 (-17) LD 5 (-2) Grn 4 (+2). No Ind figure.
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The 6 point @theSNP lead over @ScottishLabour in tonight's @Savanta_UK poll is the narrowest since shortly after the #Indyref. bit.ly/3r3nOX9
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Today's @PanelbaseMD @SundayTimesScot poll records the lowest level of support for Yes in any of the company's polls since May 2019. #indyref2 bit.ly/3gXzPsw
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Poll of polls updated to take account of both of today's #indyref polls. bit.ly/1rHFPD1. Yes 43, No 57 = no change.
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There are also vote intention figures in the latest @scotlandinunion @Survation poll just released.
Westminster
SNP 44 (-1)
Lab 31 (+4)
Con 15 (-4)
LD 6 (n/c)
28-29.9 (ch since 24-28.3)
bit.ly/3e5EgDb
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Just released: @whatscotsthink podcast with @ailsa_henderson & @RWynJones discussing some of the key findings of their new @OxUniPress book on Englishness - including on attitudes to #Scotland and #Brexit. bit.ly/3vaZZgq
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Who would make a good/bad FM in @IpsosScotland polling.
All voters
Forbes:
16.2: 31/18 (+13)
6-7.3: 35/27 (+8)
Yousaf:
16.2: 20/37 (-17)
6-7.3: 29/36 (-7)
2019 SNP voters
Forbes:
16.2: 44/13 (+31)
6-7.3: 40/28 (+12)
Yousaf:
6.2: 29/23 (+6)
6-7.3: 46/22 (+24)
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New post on the #Brexit day polls that showed increased support for Yes in #indyref2 vote intentions. bit.ly/2UEHlhn
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Write up by @RevStu of @Panelbase @WingsScotland local election vote intentions is at bit.ly/2l4gZ4t
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New post by @AlexScholes6 on 20 years of changing attitudes towards how #Scotland is and should be governed, based on today's @ScotGov @ScotCen #ssa19 report. bit.ly/3cO8ci0
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This much has been evident for over a year. bit.ly/34928hg
The document includes an interesting analysis on how Brexit has changed the political landscape in Scotland: “Put simply, there are not enough Leave voters to convert to the ‘No’ side to make up for the movement of Remain voters into the ‘Yes’ camp”
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Report of new @NorstatUKPolls @timesscotland poll of party popularity and reaction to #Budget24 is at thetimes.com/uk/scotland/art…
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On why support for independence has been falling (for a while) - written before today's @Survation poll (which btw shows a much smaller - 1pt - drop in support for Yes than other recent polls). bit.ly/3uCn0ZE
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At midnight: new guest post by @eichhorn_jan on which voters might be most likely to back @AlexSalmond's @AlbaParty.
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Report of latest @PanelbaseMD @SundayTimesScot poll of #indyref2 & #sp21 vote intentions is at bit.ly/3gqU4LX
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