When I look at this jet stream the word insane comes to mind. It's even more astonishing when you consider it's mid June! This configuration, likely enhanced by climate heating, is fueling a record heat dome so extreme that even experts are astonished!

Life-threatening heat today in Puerto Rico so hot that some meteorologists are astonished. And more of the same to come this week. Heat index numbers as high as 115-125 today!! So what is going on? There are many factors, so let's dig in... thread 1/

One of the most surreal shots of #Helene from Kat P in Pass-a-Grille

Global temperatures from 1880-2021. @NASA visual using @ed_hawkins Warming Stripes.

This is the definition of compound, concurrent heat extremes! What you're looking at is the pressure pattern & wind flow at the 500mb level (5600 m, 18K ft). This is why Death Valley hit 129, the Med may hit 118, Iran heat index 152F and China hit an all-time heat record of 126.

Europe is having one of the most textbook Omega blocks in memory. A heat dome flanked by two strong storms. A true atmospheric stalemate/ traffic jam, dumping Epic rains in Greece. These split flow jet streams & extreme blocks are becoming more common esp in Europe 1/

Report says world's wealthiest 1% produce double the combined carbon emissions of the poorest 50%, according to the UN. The wealthiest 5% alone – the so-called “polluter elite” - contributed 37% of emissions growth between 1990 and 2015. bbc.com/news/science-environ…

The Arctic is more than 12 degrees above normal. Repeat: the average for the entire Arctic is 12 degrees above what was normal in 1990. Would be even more extreme compared to pre-industrial.

Alert: #Milton may threaten #TampaBay midweek. I’m not an alarmist, it takes a lot to get my attention. This has it. If Milton landfalls at or just north of Tampa Bay as a cat 2-3 hurricane, it means up to double #Helene storm surge. And extensive, long term power outages 1/

Rarely if ever do you see a swing in temperatures like this. From historic heat to record cold.

The massive rain bomb in #Dubai - 6”- almost 2 years of rain in a day, was due to a very blocked pattern and slow moving southern jet stream with embedded disturbances. That’s the primary cause. Could cloud “seeding” have enhanced it? Maybe, but something else was going on… 1/

Amazed by how wavy/ extreme this jet stream structure is. Record warm oceans, developing El Nino, Typhoon Mawar wave breaking, climate change ice melt & uneven heating of the Arctic vs mid-latitudes. Excess energy = extremes. And we ain't seen nothing yet. 1/

Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable city in the US to hurricanes, because of the extensive water front population/ property and a huge bay that funnels surge. A worst case scenario is a landfall north of the mouth of the Bay. Circulation forces water up/ into nooks/ crannies 🧵

A testament to how extreme & overwhelming the climate is this summer is, this Record “Shattering” heat dome has been barely covered by the national media. It’s largest US heat dome in recent memory and in a large part of the nation’s middle the most intense, by a long shot. 1/

Remarkable heatwave across Mexico & Texas. Temps 110+. Heat Index 120+. This map shows the upper level ridge “Heat Dome”. Maxes out at 4.5 sigma. This means in a normal “historical” climate it’s basically impossible. But climate change makes the impossible, probable.

Can't say that I've seen a more devastating flood in the US

Neighbors: Cat 5 #Milton is now just 100s of miles away, pushing huge surge toward our coast, promising to be the most devastating storm here in 100+years. The exact landfall location will be elusive, wobbling up to landfall. Life is precious and fleeting. Be smart. Stay safe.

This week’s update on the Western drought compared to one year ago, which ended up being the worst fire season on record. 53% of West now in extreme drought. 26% in exceptional. It’s alarming.

An incredible 3 to nearly 4 feet of rain estimated by Doppler radar over the last 3 days on the peaks of the mountains near #Asheville North Carolina from #Helene #Hurricane Helene Results in the worst flooding there in memory.

Global Sea Surface Temperatures are at record levels, and not just by a little. The North Atlantic is a whole 1 degree F above record territory. From a meteorologist perspective there are few words to describe how out of bounds that is. So what is going on?? Thread...

Once again Europe has found itself a victim of severe blocking, resulting in 13” of rain in just 4 hours near #Valencia #Spain, with devastating flooding! Below you can see the storm cut off from steering stuck in between blocking in all directions. #Flood

Remarkable. Before the floods, seems the bears climbed way up in the trees to avoid disaster?? Can someone with some animal expertise weigh in? If so, that’s extraordinary

Yah, but what about 1936? A common denier talking point. NASA: summer of 2023 was the hottest summer on record globally at .41 deg F above RECORD. Yes, 1936 summer was VERY hot in the US - many daily heat records in US were set that summer. But US is only 2% of Earth's surface

Holy moly cannoli (I’m Italian). 102 degrees Fahrenheit in WINTER in Chile. “Rewriting the climate books” “One of the most extreme events the World has ever seen” No Doubt. That’s insane.

This is not an easy statement for a meteorologist to make, as there is a lot of pressure to not wade into these climate waters. Big kudos to Steve for being bold and honest.

The North Atlantic Ocean continues to defy logic. Anomalies are still spiking. Now .7C above record territory (1.26F) and 2.5F above normal. It's hard to put into words how difficult it is to achieve those numbers across an entire basin. Here's why... wfla.com/weather/climate-cla…

Everything is stuck! That partly explains the 20” of rain along the Carolina Coast and extreme rains and snows in Central Europe. Take a look at the jet stream in the US and Europe. Rex blocks (high over top of low) abound with an extremely wavy jet stream!

Wow! Sound up! #Lightningstrikes in Sebring, FL

Unfortunately our fears are now real. This is patch reef in Newfound Harbor SPA, lower Florida Keys (near Big Pine) Photo taken by Lauren Toth Thu July 20, 2023. Many reports now of extensive bleaching in the Keys. Water temps ~92 (normal 85) Thanks ⁦@BillPrecht⁩

Very well done video showing the simultaneous, compound climate shocks going on all over the World. If people could only see how much extreme weather is happening daily in all parts of the World, they’d understand that we are way off kilter.

If everyone was aware of how many flood disasters are ravaging the planet lately, people would have a much better awareness and understanding of the climate challenge humanity faces. This is just the beginning. The below thread compiles many of them.

This is outlandish. The Tropical Atlantic Ocean heat content is so far above normal it’s now normal for Mid August. The stored potential energy in the Atlantic is unreal this year, building on top of last year’s absurdity. 1/

It’s ridiculous that simply relating fact based evidence based on peer reviewed science can bring death threats, but that’s apparently the society we are living in. Chris I’m sorry you had to go thru this, but your next move I’m sure will be a great one. washingtonpost.com/nation/20…

Quite a few meteorologists in disbelief at the pattern across the US. Strong subtropical jet stream feeding widespread severe weather in the south. A winter El Nino pattern in summer. A polar jet extension in the Ohio Valley too with incredible high-latitude blocking. 1/

Relentless heat dome will not only continue for at-least the next 10 days, and intensify by later this week, with a 4+ Sigma (standard deviations) peak. It will be most intense over Mexico.

The "Ring of Fire"... it's a term meteorologists use when the edge of a heat dome helps feed intense severe weather like the violent tornado yesterday in West Texas and the 97 mph gust squall line in Houston. Storms fired up on the edge of the record breaking ridge 1/

Think July was hot in the desert SW? Aug says hold my beer. A monster heat dome likely by next weekend - the most intense yet this summer. Magenta indicates where all-time record heights are forecast. This on top of PHX so far beating its hottest month on record by almost 4F!! 1/

The extent of the drought in Amazonas. The top photo is now. The other, from July.

Some rare and remarkable processes are taking place this week, that we are not likely to observe for a long time! These 2 Atlantic hurricanes are closer than any since at least the 1960s. They are now connected - in each other’s orbit, pivoting. Stop 1. Notice the calm area at the pivot point between the two storms caused by sinking air. Stop 2. #Humberto dissipates and #Imelda cannibalizes its moisture and energy, passes over #Bermuda, grows, then heads out to sea. (2 hurricanes can NOT merge both as hurricanes. One must die or transition extra tropical first) Stop 3. Imelda meets a frontal boundary where it scales the front and is accelerated NE.

What if #Milton went 25 mi north? Disaster for #tampabay! Milton’s eye went south of the bay and winds on north side forced 2-5 ft of water out. Reverse surge. But landfall 25 miles north would have changed fate as 15 ft of surge would have funneled into the narrowing bay. @WFLA

Breaking: #HurricaneLee is now a Cat 5 storm, with winds of 160 mph. In 30 hrs it intensified 90 mph, 2-3X the criteria for rapid intensification. In the past 8 years, there have been 8 cat 5’s in the Atl. Comparing 1970-2000 with 2001-2022, cat 5 frequency has tripled! 1/

No, your eyes are not deceiving you! Next week's cold blast is going to be “near” historic in #Florida for early November. The models are very aggressive and if they are right we may tie or break records set ~100 years ago. These are wind chills for Tuesday morning BUT it is not out of the question that North FL will see actual low temps near freezing next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Fire up the fireplaces! You don't have one? You have a week to get it :)

Competing historic Heat domes across the Atlantic. As intense as the US dome is, France may have it beat on the ground, with dozens and dozens of all time records today. It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change.

El Niño has arrived officially! @NOAA has issued an Advisory with a 56% of a strong episode by winter. Let the “not so” fun begin. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a…

Likely the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic happened today-100.4 F- What's happening in Siberia this year is nothing short of remarkable. The kind of weather we expect by 2100, 80 years early. For perspective Miami has only reached 100 degrees once on record.

I don't think you can understate just how impressive this heat dome is. It covers 2/3 of the nation in which 80% of the country's population over the 7 day heatwave period will hit 90+ for a high temperature (~260 million people) The peak intensity of the heat dome was record breaking for the SE US in late July. It peaked at 3.7 standard deviations, based on statistics from the past climate records we have, which means this heat dome is rare, if not virtually impossible, in our former climate of the 1900s. But human-caused climate change now makes these extreme heat domes much more likely. From the climate scientists at World Weather Attribution: “Every heatwave in the world is now made stronger and more likely to happen because of human-caused climate change.” A note: Its not the strongest heat dome I’ve seen and ground temperatures, although very hot, are not breaking many all-time records. The surface temps are not quite commensurate with the power of the heat dome aloft mainly due to the elevated low-level moisture from the Gulf. Yes, as a climate specialist, I am very aware that climate change is not the only factor as to why it’s hot. I’m aware there is alot of asphalt making it hotter in cities. I’m aware it was record hot in the 1930s. I know the climate has always changed and the Earth goes through hot/ cold cycles. I know we are near sun spot maximum. I know all this, and more, because I have a Master’s degree in climate and I study this Every day. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. A few sources for this post are in the thread below… #heatwave #heatdome @WFLA

At first you’re like, “what is this guy doing?” Then…

As an Italian, this is the last straw. Now I’m motivated. Heatflation: due to heat in Spain they’ve lost half this crop this year. “Worldwide, olive oil now costs $8,600 per metric ton, more than twice as much as it did a year ago” grist.org/agriculture/climat…

Forced ascent… air hits mountain, forced to rise, cools, condenses and forms cloud. Amazing

Massive flood event forecast for Central America over the next 2 weeks!! Certainly possible some locations will receive >4 feet of rain!! Terrain makes it life-threatening with flash flooding. The reason: a common, but unusually strong and persistent, Central American Gyre.

Record levels at ALL Tampa Bay Area gauges eclipsed and still rising. Surge has been ~6 feet so far in Clearwater. Record broken by almost 2 ft at Clearwater. These are measured against MLLW as noted on the graphic. I’ll update later as levels continue to rise. @WFLA

There’s so many extreme weather and climate stories this weekend, with #Hilary’s impact, many are flying under the radar. This summer we are 1.5C above preindustrial and here’s just a small glimpse of my timeline. I’ve excluded a bunch of events. 1/

Get ready to rock and roll! A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is on the way. In about two weeks, temperatures 12 miles up over Canada and Greenland are forecast to spike by 50°F or more. That’s a shockwave in the stratosphere — a rapid disruption of the polar vortex high above the Arctic. When the vortex gets rattled like this, it can send ripples downward through the atmosphere, reshaping the jet stream and eventually stirring up turbulent, high-impact weather patterns at the surface all around the planet. Not every SSW delivers extreme cold or storms, but events this strong often tip the atmosphere into a more chaotic setup in the weeks that follow.

Ughhhh "On July 20th, CRF™ teams visited Sombrero Reef, a restoration site we've been working at for over a decade. What we found was unimaginable - 100% coral mortality. We have also lost almost all the corals in the Looe Key Nursery in the Lower Keys.” coralrestoration.org/post/hi…

I think we may have a new winner. Garfield Bight in very shallow water in Everglades Nat'l Park, SW corner of Miami-Dade county just hit 98.1F for two hours straight. Head scratching hot water over South Florida! Shallow water heats fast but this is a whole new level.

Heads up: Residents of #Tampa have never experienced a storm of this magnitude with this track. Latest GFS is a worst case scenario for Tampa Bay. This specific track as a cat 3 would bring 10-15 feet + of surge into Tampa Bay. May change but Take this seriously! #Milton

Big Polar Plunge across Europe as the jet stream takes a nose dive! Temps 10-20C below normal! Lots of snow in the mountains!!

The Tropical Atlantic is not just record hot overall, it’s record hot in each basin.

“Spike in ocean heat stuns scientists. But have we breached a climate tipping point?” A very detailed analysis from the experts: wfla.com/weather/climate-cla… @WFLA

Major power outage in Manhattan. Subways are dark. Everyone walking.

Attention media orgs. We are way past both siding climate change. The climate is warming. It’s due to the burning of fossil fuels. Those who claim differently are either blinded by ideology or paid by special interests. Do better.

Clever depiction of global climate warming for each month of each year since 1940 from Copernicus

The Bay of Fundy has the highest tidal range in the World - nearly 50 feet! #HurricaneLee may make landfall miles from there, which would be not only very dangerous in terms of surge (if timed right with incoming tide) but also a unfortunate science experiment. Depending on 1/

Rare event! Competing heat domes in the Southeast and Southwest US crank out two huge all-time record highs. Palm Springs 124 and Raleigh=Durham 106 with a heat index of 118! Las Vegas is forecast to break their all-time high this weekend and even Death Valley may come close.

I have not checked, but I don't think there have been any solar or wind spills today.

I've seen very little coverage on the historic heat dome in Central America. Highs have reached up to 124, Florida has had heat index #'s to 115. It's only May! Climate change is making heat waves more frequent, intense & larger. This dome will be relentless into next week. 1/

14” of rain in 12 hrs is considered a 1 in 1000 year event in this part of Florida. Southern Sarasota County exceeded 14” in 12 hours. This recurrence is based on historical climate. But the climate has changed and these events will continue to happen more often. Now 20”+ @WFLA

And climate change said, hold my beer.

If you told me last year, that we’d see this in 2023, even with the knowledge that El Niño was coming, I would not have believed you. The extent of the jump in one year is something that meteorologists would never have imagined.

#Ian is now at 155 mph, 1 mph shy of a cat 5. Only 4 US storms have made landfall that strong. It may be taking a similar track to Charley, but it’s no Charley. Ian’s eye is 40mi wide, hurricane winds are 75mi wide. Dwarfs Charley’s 5 mi eye & 30mi hurr winds. ⁦@WFLA⁩ 1/

Vital: If you live in SE Louisiana and you think you've rode out the strongest of storms - you haven't. #Ida will be the most intense hurricane you have ever experienced (stronger winds than Katrina). Like a huge tornado. Take every precaution to protect your life and family now.

A monster, borderline category 5 equivalent. #Mocha Let’s hope for a miracle.

While all eyes are focused on Hurricane #Hilary, the nation's middle is in for an epic #heatwave. While it will be intense with highs 105-110, the biggest aspect is it's size and longevity. From Saturday to next Friday 200+ record highs will be challenged. 1/

Spain is under climate siege

That blue dot… that’s 75 ft waves. Not a maximum wave height… a significant wave height. This is a forecast from the GFS Wave Global Model. These long track systems build huge waves. #HurricaneLee

Drought in Mexico & C America is off the charts. Extreme in dark red. This is making a long term water shortage much worse, turning it into an acute emergency. Mexico City is running out of water and some say their Day Zero is only a month away, unless heavy rain comes. 1/

#Hurricaneerin is hungry. It will feast on hot water up to 88 degrees. After using this heat to power its engine, it will dissipate said heat. Leaving a cool ocean wake in its path, ~10 degrees lower than it found it. The water cools not just due to heat absorption, but also overturning /upwelling, wind and rain.

"How worried are you about climate change?" Pope: "Unfortunately, we have gotten to a point of no return. It's sad, but that's what it is. Global warming is a serious problem," Francis replied. "Climate change at this moment is a road to death." cbsnews.com/news/pope-franci…

The Amazon is in trouble. That's been the case for years. But this winter -now spring- the region is in it's worst drought on record due to El Nino, a warm Atlantic & climate change. Oct temps +5-12F! Locally deforestation, much from the beef industry, enhances heat + aridity 1/

In case you missed it. “The temperature soared as high as 100 degrees in the Northwest Territories on Saturday, the hottest temperature ever measured north of 65 degrees latitude in the Western Hemisphere”. Tough keeping up with all this climate chaos. washingtonpost.com/weather/2…

“Bears all over the world are coming out of hibernation more than a month ahead of schedule after one of the hottest winters in human history.” google.com/amp/s/www.dailyma…

Oh just your average 140 mph wind gust, 938 mb storm, clocking Ireland Friday morning.

All-time record shattered today in Las Vegas, beating the former record by 3 degrees F. Records that once seemed impossible, made possible - if not likely - by climate heating. As I say, with climate change expect the unexpected.

Sarasota's 3 hour rainfall today was a ~1-in-1000 year event and also a new all-time record for most rainfall in one hour with 3.93" Here's more: wfla.com/weather/sarasota-ra…

Ya'll ready for a full country Arctic press?!

July 21st (Sunday) was the hottest day ever on record on planet Earth. The most anomalously warm places were Antarctica and Western Canada where several hundred wildfires blaze, many out of control. July 20th pictured on the map (21st not available yet via Copernicus)

One of the smartest climate scientists in the 🌎

Well that escalated quickly. The Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth. As ice disappears , nature’s cooling mechanism does too. #ShowYourStripes

You often hear us talk about the wavy jet stream. Here’s a good illustration of how this manifests in extreme weather, connecting the Europe flooding to the Heat Dome in the US West. Some scientists have found a connection between climate change and a more amp’d - wavy jet 1/….

Global Oceans are severely hotter than we have ever observed since records began. There are several ocean heat waves. El Niño = danger for Galapagos marine life. Boiling Tropical Atlantic = early hurricanes. Cat 5 marine heatwave in UK! Here's a quick tour and thread 1/

The potential for historic flooding tomorrow - perhaps 1-in-100 year rain event - in or around NYC is growing. Flash flooding likely. Here’s a combined future radar followed by rainfall total forecast from the GRAF model. Here’s a thread… 1/

Update on the multiple ocean heat waves... And make sure you Wait for It. Global oceans reached 21C today (~70F) that's 1.4F above norm & .5F above record. North Atlantic even more impressive at 2.5F above norm & 1.4F above record! The new winner: the NW Atlantic spots at +14F

2X increase in the most extreme hurrucanes! Yesterday’s post connecting Melissa’s extra intensity to warmer ocean temperatures ruffled some feathers. Some complained that “one storm” doesn’t prove climate change. That’s true. So I dug deeper. Looking at every Cat 4 & 5 in the Atlantic since 1980 (reliable records/ good data gathering) I broke the record into 2 equal parts. 1980-2002 and 2003-2025 What I found surprised even me. The most recent period has more than double the number of most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic!! That’s not coincidence. Humans have become a force of nature. Through greenhouse warming and changes in aerosols (pollution) the oceans have warmed dramatically. For instance, the water under #Melissa was about 4 degrees F hotter than it would have been ~100 years ago. That’s huge! That extra heat powers a higher horse power engine with heavier wind & rain. Is there a natural oscillation (AMO)component too? Perhaps, but IMO it’s tenuous. In post analysis it’s very possible Melissa will be upgraded to the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever given lots of unprecedented data collected just before landfall. With that said, personally I post this info simply because I find it interesting the degree to which we have changed the trajectory of our climate. But - to be clear - I don’t ask that you do anything about it. The way you use this info and take action - or not take action - is not my business. To each his/ her own. Personally I want to be sure I’m not denying reality by ignoring the symptoms. And I want to be sure I’m communicating the science to the public, as my position requires. What you do with the info is your business.

It's hard to overstate just how off the charts warm the Pacific is right now. The swath of the basin from California to Japan (a HUGE area) from 25N to 60N is ~3F (1.6C) above normal. To put it into math terms that is 6 Sigma/ standard deviations above the mean. I won't bother calculating the chances of this happening against the late 20th century climate - let alone the pre-climate change climate - because the numbers would show it simply could never happen without global warming. So let's talk about why this is happening. Since the last El Nino a couple of years ago the ocean has been rearranging its warm/cool water, as it typically does as a normal part of it's natural oscillation. (This summer a record ridge/ heat dome was parked over the N Pacific). But each next time this configuration lines up (warm north Pacific/ cool tropical Pacific) it piles on a higher and higher baseline temperature over time due to greenhouse warming, air pollution reduction, and the feedbacks (clouds & direct insolation) of both. So we end up with the bottom chart which shows the standardized anomaly (departure from normal) is sloping upward at a very unnatural rate an alarming rate.

“Monday’s forecasts remain unanimous and alarming across all models. With raw temperatures of 40 to 44 °C (111 F) across vast regions, we will far exceed the tolerance thresholds of all plants and animals present. It wouldn’t just be monthly records broken, but absolute records shattered, not in isolated cases… but by the dozens. If these forecasts come true, it’s an absolute nightmare for all farmers in southwestern France.”

Wow. Sound Up!! Via Brittany Labonte Madeira Beach around noon. They are fine. @WFLA

The atmosphere is a fluid and it's all connected. Waves of energy ripple through the upper levels as the jet stream with ridges (heat domes) and troughs (cool pools). We see TransAtlantic ridging and then most prominent is the giant heat dome that builds across the US next week.

I've posted a lot lately about how hot the Gulf of Mexico waters is. The question I always get is, how may this impact hurricanes? I'll answer that and show you just how "off the charts" the Gulf sea surface heat is in this thread, with a couple of stellar visuals 1/

“If you could live 1000 years in this spot, you’d likely only experience a heat dome like this ONE time” … “It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change” ….“Extreme heat waves like this will become common place in the next few decades” @CoveringClimate

Lots of talk about the very warm Gulf of Mexico, specifically focused on South Florida. Sea “surface” temps in the Florida Keys are 92-95 degrees. That’s boiling for them! More typically it would be in the upper 80s. This map shows departures from normal of ~5 degrees F 🧵 1/