Market cycle detection via novel signal processing techniques. If a cycle exists, we will detect it! Learn about this approach: sigma-l.net/about
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Just keep a note of this cycle, around 700 hours or ~ 28 days. Below wavelengths < 50 days its the only coherent 'cycle' of any correlation to price movement.
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Ok, lots of people always asking how to get into Hurst Cycles so in the following thread are helpful resources! Here we go:
1) Read 'Profit Magic for Stock Transation Timing'. Hurst's seminal work and foundation for this method of time series decomposition. PDFs floating about..
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The Behemoth...
3.5 Year Cycle Peak in the S&P 500, incoming
Sampled since 1992 this prominent cycle is beacon-esque in a bandwidth between 3000 and 230 days. Nothing else touches it's power to dictate price action. Running at around 1259 days or ~ 3.45 years average wavelength.
Superbly stationary in this snippet of 9 iterations and also increasing in relative power over the last decade.
Now starting to approach the peaking zone. Same for #djia #nasdaq, #russell2000 etc. $RUT also shown below (perhaps even clearer?)
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Nothing new under the sun IMHO.
House prices have been bid up way beyond their 'true' value in an economy propped up the mirage of printed money over a couple of decades. Not just UK either.
This was seen as 'good inflation' by some, especially if you wanted re-election.
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Uranium and the bulltrap has been fairly well sprung.
Time to arm longs for an incoming trough of the beautiful cycle around 150 days, troughing imminently.
Below a composite of $NXE $DNN $UEC $CCJ and $UUUU demonstrating this stationary feature over the last 4 years.
@uraniuminsider @UrTokenCorgi @UraniumCharts
Uranium posts seem enthused yesterday after a decent bullish day..I reckon it's a touch too early. Possible #bulltrap similar to Aug 2024.
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Bitcoin and both ~ 30 and ~ 80 cycles now working in unison (both bullish) to accelerate price upward.
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#Stockmarkets and the Global Wave @ ~ 250 Days
One of the most coherent periodic features in equity markets since 2015 is the cycle with a wavelength around 250 days. This is notionally the 40 week nominal wave, described and observed by JM Hurst in the 1960s.
The most recent low was October 2023 and the component is peaking. The next trough is due July - August 2024.
The below composite includes #spx #ftse #djia #cac40 #dax #nasdaq and more.
Watch and bookmark this one.
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The Bitcoin cycle you don't usually hear about:
Circa 30 days average wavelength and recently completing it's latest trough iteration.
Below, a sample since June 2024 featuring 16 iterations of this periodic feature.
Also shown in the context of the more powerful ~ 80 day cycle feature, with which the 30 day minion will now do battle, being out of phase with it's larger brother.
30 day cycle in Bitcoin still exhibiting some good power in the latest up leg!
What a beauty. Below sampled since May 2024 over 16 iterations of the periodic feature.
This is a Bitcoin cycle - but not the one you usually hear about 😃
#bitcoincycle
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#uranium bulls have been battered by the down leg of the cycle around 150 days. Now, it is well within the zone of the next trough, due to peak in November. Crucial rally coming up to see if we fail to breach peaks and fade into big low early 2025.
Beautiful signal within a composite of $CCJ $NXE $UEC $UUUU $DNN.
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Understanding time frequency charts and more on Sigma-L: Essentials
#timefrequency #dataviz #python
sigma-l.net/p/understanding-…
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Progress of the prominent wave ~ 75 days in #uranium via useful ETF $URA as we approach the latest trough in the coming days.
Possibly need to see a few more frustrated/tearful tweets from macro analysts and perhaps a quick capitulation here to finish off the down phase of this particular iteration.
She's a beauty though. 😍
Seemingly lot of exuberance in #uranium on #fintwit, similar to #goldbugs getting excited over the shiny stuff. Often correlated with peaks.
Below evidence of the excellent, highly stationary wave ~ 75 days in $URA, peaking shortly. Similar in other related stocks etc.
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Epic peek at an incoming epic peak
Below, $SPX since 1989 reveals, with clarity, the beacon cycle at around 1300 days (3.56 years, 42 months), over 10 iterations.
The last trough occurred ~ October 2022.
This cycle is due to peak end of this year / early 2025 and will trough again late 2026.
Also shown is $RUT, perhaps showing even more clarity?
This fantastically powerful cycle is at it's most bullish phase, which is why stock markets have been going up - so very linearly!
One to bookmark, for sure.
#StockMarket $ES_F #russell2000
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This is interesting, please do it. Love to see some innovation in time series analysis.
There, at the moment, a very nicely defined and fairly stationary periodic feature around 700 hours (~ 29 days) wavelength in bitcoin since June/July, with predictive power. Easily identifiable even with a simple FFT actually and 'clear as a bell' on a time frequency analysis, as below. Certainly one of the most powerful influences on price action at the higher frequencies over the last six months or so.
Also present in eth, ltc, sol as you might expect.
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A look at 10 of the best cycles in financial markets for 2025 as we start the year. Featuring $USDCAD, Uranium, $SPY, Gold, Bitcoin and more.
Tough job to make this list but here it is..free: sigma-l.net/p/market-cycles-…
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Below, from JM Hurst's 1974 Cyclic Analysis, a demonstration of why it is not possible to have both synchronised troughs AND peaks in financial markets, when assuming periodic functions are present. Note the crest of component C is infact a price trough! #hurstcycles
ALT Synchronised troughs in financial markets. Courtesy Traders Press
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Looking promising for #uranium bulls as the prominent cycle around 75 days is almost at the end of a consolidatory iteration, for the most part. Next move up to mid-late June and a significant peak.
More detail: sigma-l.net/p/uranium-price-…
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Uranium teasing the latest trough of the cycle around 150-160 days. Coming week should be telling.
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#uranium and now the bulls are exuberant it is time for this excellent cycle, circa 150 days, to begin it's peaking process.
Lots of bragging from macro accounts on X a cursory signal for a peak, quite a contrast to relative despair at the trough in August.
This was one of the best bullish trades of the last 4 years with amplitude just about matching the Aug 2021 move as far as the composite goes. Individual sector instruments varied in amplitude (volatility) only.
Composite below is $CCJ $DNN $UUUU $URA and $NXE as previously.
sigma-l.net/p/uranium-cycles…
#uranium bulls have been battered by the down leg of the cycle around 150 days. Now, it is well within the zone of the next trough, due to peak in November. Crucial rally coming up to see if we fail to breach peaks and fade into big low early 2025.
Beautiful signal within a composite of $CCJ $NXE $UEC $UUUU $DNN.
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Working on some new analysis software (browser based). With any new measurement tool it always a good idea to calibrate first!
Alpha v 0.33
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Weekly, logscale in #bitcoin and 18 month tools. March/April 2022 will be a crucial time for #crypto as price will move to a low of at least 40 week magnitude. Would not be suprised to see general tracking of 18 month FLD (yellow) to circa 35k. #CryptoNews sigma-l.net/p/bitcoin-hurst-…
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Bulls being teased in Uranium. Trough is imminent of the exceptional cycle around 160 days.
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What caused this sharp frequency modulation in Uranium, shown below via $CCJ, mid 2020?
The cycle around 150-160 days has been stationary ever since...
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Will the next long in Uranium outperform the excellent move up from the previous trough of the ~ 150 day cycle (Aug/Sept 2024)?
Bottoming process is here, taking out highs within first month of this up leg would be bullish.
Below composite of $NXE $DNN $CCJ $UEC $UUUU $URA $SRUUF $URNM $NLR and more.
Also shown, enrichment names $LBTR $LEU $SILXY which exhibit the same cycle, as you might expect.
I reckon this long trade in uranium must rank as one of the best trades of 2024, such was the increase in power to the upside, most notably in $CCJ $UEC and some others. The metronomic stationarity over time of this component helps of course.
The subsequent down leg (we are in the most bearish phase now) is phased to bottom out at the end of January 2025.
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Should be an interesting week ahead in #uranium as price forms a peak from the excellent wave around 75 days. The next larger, more powerful periodic feature around 150 days is still hard up.
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#nq #NASDAQ and 1 of the clearest phasings in global equity markets. So clear infact I have included @SentientTrader composite model line (light grey) as it reflects pretty much exactly the price action I expect with support at the 18 month FLD for the 18 month low in mid June.1
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Bitcoin ~ 30 and ~ 80 day cycle phase as we proceed.
Also shown ~ 80 day with more iterations from a longer sample and ~ 30 day in isolation from a shorter sample.
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Battle update: ~ 80 day and ~ 30 day cycles in Bitcoin.
Appears now that the much more powerful 80 day feature (hard down) is resuming bully mode to the spritely yet puny 30 day (hard up) feature.
Again, when these two both align in phase the biggest price move will occur.
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Hey Bob, is this 60 trading days rather than calendar? Running the tools on any cycles < ~ 120 days in bitcoin over the last 2 years or so reveals a fairly noisy spectra. There is a hint of stationarity around 80 days (calendar days).
Around 60 days power is akin to the general noise and not statistically significant.
We do have a lovely burst of stationary power around 30 days wavelength over the last 6 months though.
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History, The Market and Cyclicality. Standing the Test of Time!
The 40 week nominal wave then, and now:
1) 1935 - 1951: From JM Hurst's seminal 'Profit Magic for Stock Transaction Timing'. Filter output (comb filter approach) number 4, average wavelength 34.6 weeks or 242.2 Days. Performed on the $DJIA
2) 2016-2024: Time frequency analysis on composite of $SPY $QQQ $IWM and $DIA. The dominant feature below bandwidths < 500 days. Running around 35.7 weeks or ~ 250 days over 14 iterations.
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~ 80 day cycle feature in Bitcoin as we proceed.
Bitcoin over the last 4 years or so and the emergence of the cycle around 80 days. Previously a feature around 120 days was present in price movement, according to this analysis.
Coming into dominance at the start of 2023 and putting it 13 iterations since then! Slight interference from a (likely) transitory feature around 60 days evident since late 2024.
Peaking
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Uranium and perhaps a replay of the really quite nasty bear trap of Aug/Sept 2024 in prospect here.
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Good morning all, a couple more iterations of the ~ 30 day cycle in Bitcoin since August to kick things off this week:
#bitcoincycles #timefrequency
🌊Progress of the ~ 30 day cycle in Bitcoin as we approach the next peak. Below a sample since early 2024 and over 17 iterations of this periodic feature.
Very nice.
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$VIX and the excellent 80 day component (circa 68 days). Excellent spectral spacing shown nicely on the 3d plot here with 20 week, 80 day and ostensibly the 40 day component all strong signals.
#plotly #matplotlib #python
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House price inflation is not a positive, it is a false signal of wealth! Indeed some voted out with the hope prices would come down..
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Progress of the beastly large cycle around 3.5 years wavelength as we progress to turn down.
Sampled below over the last 20 years, ~ 6 iterations of this component.
Next low mid-late 2026.
Composite of $SPY $FTSE $DAX and $QQQ
We will shortly be entering the peaking phase of this beastly cycle in #stockmakets around 3.5 years wavelength. It's been a relatively serene path upward over the last year or so.
Below a composite of #dax #ftse #spx and #nasdaq
sigma-l.net/p/understanding-…
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There is also a tremendous periodicity in the VIX, the most notable of which is around 75 days.
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Add a smooth 3 Pole Butterworth band pass filter to your Tradingview charts to help visualise dominant cycles in markets.
Free Indicator with code in article.
sigma-l.net/p/tradingview-bu…
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$VIX close to forming the latest trough of the excellent periodic component ~ 75 days, sampled since Feb 2021:
#stockmarkets #optionstrade
sigma-l.net/p/volatility-ind…
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Another example of the 80 day nominal wave in #stockmarkets over the last 3 years.
Fairly stationary in this sample and most dominant in the period July 2022 to October 2023, when larger cycles were neutral.
Now peaking. Next trough due early July ± FM.
Composite includes: #dax #cac #spx #nasdaq #bvsp #nikkei #nifty #ftse #djia #russell2000 and more.
sigma-l.net/about
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Sublime in #uranium for some years now (sample here since Nov 2021) with the exemplary cycle around 75 days punctuating the larger components profitably.
Currently in it's most bullish phase with a peak anticipated mid-late April.
Featuring: $URA $URNM $UROY $CCJ $UEC $DNN $URNJ $UUUU $UEC
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Essentially wrong. It is the availability of credit (debt) that has pushed up prices in the main. Physical supply is a much smaller issue. Those with access to the credit at emergency level rates hoover up those ‘assets’ to the detriment of ‘society’. Suprisingly naive from JRM
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Thanks Bob.
There is some power around that 60 day mark for a proposed cycle, although it has been more dominant since mid 2024. Prior to that power is more centered around 80 days avg. wavelength.
The component ('mid cycle'?) around 30 days is better separated (more predictive power) in the frequency domain, at least since July 2024.
Both below since mid 2023
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Here's the periodic feature you want to keep tabs on for the ride down, around 1300 days or 3.5 years. Dominates the spectra of most stockmarkets, notably in the US.
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🌊In addition to peaks of the 40 and 80 day wave as described previously, one of the longer term Global Waves in stock markets is also peaking.
This cycle runs at around 250 days and is notionally the Hurst 40 week nominal wave. The next trough of this component is due in July this year.
The composite below reflects this component running through global equity indices including $SPX $DAX $FTSE $BVSP and more.
Also shown in #spx and #dax in isolation.
🌊Friday and the #stockmarkets Global Wave(s), continued!
The ubiquitous and clear as a bell 80 day nominal wave has now peaked and is turning down --> circa 78 days average wavelength.
The remaining bullish power comes from the component around 37 days (the 40 day nominal wave) and that is now peaking.
The 40 week nominal wave, running smooth at around 250 days from a sample below since 2015, is also peaking, shown below. This component naturally attracts a wider margin of timing error due to the frequency modulation of a longer wave.
Have a great weekend all!
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Happy Friday....a good week for Bitcoin but why?
Below, ~ 80 day and ~ 30 day cycle as we proceed in phase for the most bullish stage of the combo of these two.
Detecting for all periodicity below ~ 100 days since late 2023.
~ 30 day also shown in isolation with a smaller sample.
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Heads up over the next couple of weeks for the trough of the powerful ~ 80 day cycle feature in Bitcoin..and other crypto.
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Long term periodic driver of price in #stockmarkets since 1987, via the #russell2000 which exhibits the cleanest signal from $SPX, $NDX and $DJI. This wave features a wavelength around 1300 days (3.56 years).
Gradually modulated in amplitude (volatility) but super stationary in frequency.
Also shown in $DJIA below.
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Good morning all from Airstrip One.
Bitcoin bulls: stay frosty for the ~ 30 day cycle trough, due this week.
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#stockmarkets $SPX and support at the 18 month FLD (yellow) for the anticipated 40 week nominal low. Price will likely track this FLD for months to come culminating in a test of 40 week low end of the year. This 40 week component will form rounded top of the 4.5 year component
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Bitcoin ~ 80 day cycle once again coming to dominance as we proceed.
Below: > 10 iterations, sample over the last 3 years at wavelengths < ~ 112 days.
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The beautiful periodic feature of $XAUXAG since Oct 2015, running at around 260 days and peaked. Next low around June this year.
#silversqueeze
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Here's the sublime #ccj #cameco as a proxy for #uranium and the wonderful cycle around 150-160 days. Sampled here since 2020.
If price can stay above the lows of Aug/Sept by the end of January 2025 (the next projected trough area), this will likely rocket.
Wow! Signal.
Also shown: $UEC and a only slightly less sublime example of this cycle.
sigma-l.net/p/understanding-…
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New changes to our analysis software and a new cycle scanner means more understanding needed!
Part 2 of Understanding Charts on Sigma-L below!
sigma-l.net/p/understanding-…
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Grok 3 is quite good at coding up some more advanced dashboard style stuff now. Check out this interactive morlet wavelet dashboard I made in around 45 mins..all javascript.
morlet.static.domains/morlet…
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@SentientTrader Composite model line does a decent job of displaying what I am expecting in equity markets and more specifically the S&P. Below #SPX and the next 80 day will likely find support at the 80 day FLD early May followed by 18 month low at 18 month FLD mid July. #hurst
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The '4 year cycle' is readily bandied about in Bitcoin discussion, but peer beneath the surface to examine a cycle that is much less likely to be random, the ~ 80 day feature.
Below, the last 4 years and a scan across wavelengths from ~140 days to ~ 40 days for periodic features.
The only power in town is evident, in this case over 19 iterations of it.
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The struggle is real for many #uranium lovers on X recently it seems but the low of one of the most stationary periodic features is v.close.
Official update w/detail due on site next week but below is general picture of this beauty across various names in U sector.
sigma-l.net/p/uranium-price-…
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Progress of the ~ 80 day feature in Bitcoin, one of the most coherent cycles of the last 3 years in the OG crypto!
Further progress of the ~ 80 day cycle in Bitcoin as we move down more readily into the strongest bearish phase of this consistent feature.
Sample below includes 16+ iterations over the last 4 years or so. Most dominance coming after early 2023.
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Although nice to be featured on a video, this has a fundamental error. The approach I take is based upon JM Hurst's initial numerical analysis pioneered in the 1960s/70s. It brings his work up to date with modern time frequency analysis techniques which can easily be performed now with the increased compute available to us.
Not the Hurst Exponent which is a measure of time series memory and fractal scale. An easy mistake to make of course.
Props to flash for the feature.
piped.video/W68H77gDN5Q?si=kOG0…
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#bitcoin and the prominent 80 day wave heading down, below a sample since May 2022 featuring 10 iterations of this cycle. Also a @tradingview chart annotated as best I can..😇
Also shown: the recently swiss clock like wave around 330 hours (~ 13 days), troughing soon.
#btcusd
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Uranium via $URNM, entering into the final stages of the down leg for the dominant cycle around 150 days. This component last peaked back in October.
Watch for volatility as the trough forms over the next few weeks.
Happy new year Utwits!
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$UEC sampled back to 2019 and the clear emergence of the cycle around 160 days which has been so profitable since.
Many uranium names struggling at this particular trough but we are still well within the zone.
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#stockmarkets and many of the global indices finding resistance at the 40 week FLD after pop from 80 day nominal low 7th Sept. Below, $SPX largely tracks this FLD (green). 54 month FLD (orange) looms below as likely support for the larger low coming in around later October. $SPY
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The Big Top?
S&P 500 and the 3.5 year cycle (~ 1275 days) sampled since 1994. Superbly stationary and approaching a peak, full report:
sigma-l.net/p/s-and-p-500-lo…
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🪙 Golden Seam: Bitcoin ~ 30 day cycle over the last year or so.
Sampling between wavelengths of ~ 12 to 50 days reveals the periodic feature of significance. Within this sample are ~ 16 iterations of the cycle.
Yield for this feature across the period (if you were to buy and sell at the close of the exact peaks and troughs) is ~ 195%.
#bitcoin #btcusd #CryptoMarket
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End of the week and here is the 40 day nominal wave in US #stockmarkets, currently dominating within the main trend.
Running at around 842 hours (~ 35 days) in this sample since April 2023. End of Sept for the next peak. Also shown is #spx in isolation and highpassed (huge excursion on the down leg in Aug!).
Super. $DIA $QQQ $IWM $SPY
sigma-l.net/p/understanding-…
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$SPX and in line with other equity indices around the globe a swift fall into the 40 day nominal low occuring now. Possibly will come down to test 80/40 day FLD and 80 day VTL circa 4600. 20 day FLD cross was modest and heavily exceeded. sigma-l.net/p/sp500-hurst-cy…
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~ 30 day cycle in Bitcoin continues to be bullied by the more powerful cycle around 80 days. Both now coming into their final stages, troughing around end of Nov.
Battle update: ~ 80 day and ~ 30 day cycles in Bitcoin.
Appears now that the much more powerful 80 day feature (hard down) is resuming bully mode to the spritely yet puny 30 day (hard up) feature.
Again, when these two both align in phase the biggest price move will occur.
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$XAUUSD Gold very much in the zone too for the 40 day nominal low with the FLD peak directly above price currently. COnfirmed by cross of 20 day FLD to the upside...80 day nominal low due late May.
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Emergence of a beauty: 30 day cycle in Bitcoin
Rising mid 2024, this wave has been stationary ever since and has put in over 10 iterations thus far. The latest trough is imminent.
Very nice.
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Timid so far in Uranium composite from the latest trough of the cycle around 160 days. Early in the up leg but a possible similar iteration to the sideways move of June 2022-November 2022.
April 2025 the next peak of this cycle, July 2025 the next trough, at current wavelengths.
This scenario may well send many U bulls to the asylum if they are not already resident.
$CCJ and $URA also shown individually.
#patience
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Monday morning and an unbiased sweep of global #stockmarkets reveals a fairly noisy spectra, save for the ubiquitous 80 day nominal wave. This cycle, running on average at around 79 days according to the below composite, is narrating price moves below the underlying trend and has been for years.
A pullback from the smaller wave (40 day) likely soon prior to a flush into early September.
Below sampled since November 2021, 10+ iterations.
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Progress of the ~ 80 day cycle in Bitcoin as we proceed to the imminent peak of this stationary feature. Sampled below over the last 4 years and 15+ iterations. Fairly dominant across the spectra since late 2022...
Here we have the dwindling power of the ubiquitous 30 day cycle in Bitcoin as it tries (and fails) to push price down much in the latest down leg - which is just about ending.
Bullish pressure comes from the much more powerful ~ 80 day cycle, which is phased as hard up currently and smashing bears on the way. Also shown below.
#bitcoincycles
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Fair but not quite. Buy mid Sept / Sell early Oct. Buy Mid November / Sell Mid Jan. Very periodic is #bitcoin
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Progress in $RIO with this beautiful cycle around 75 days.
Metronome. 🕰️
Incredible periodic feature in RIO, mirroring Copper to a large extent, around 75 days. Sampled here since 2022 over 15 + iterations. Super stationary wow! signal.
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40 day cycle in #stockmarkets via #nasdaq #spx #dji #dax and more well on the way now with a trough in site. Tech the biggest faller within this iteration. Currently running around 36 days average wavelength.
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Hmmmm....
Clear ~ 80 day cycle in #litecoin as a proxy for the wider crypto market. 14 iterations over the last 3 years shown below.
Bulltrap
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Although horribly noisy (don't be fooled by randomness) in general across #bitcoin below 100 days, there is some clarity starting to emerge around the component @ ~ 85 days. Below is a sample since 2021.
A move down further into late April will further clarify the emergent stationarity and predictive value of this feature.
#cryptocurrency #BTCUSD
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#stockmarkets now firmly making their way to the nominal 18 month low although the interesting amplitude variation amongst the US markets remains. Below, the $RUT and $SPX. Same frequency, different amplitude...
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$SPX and barring a yuge drop in the next few days / next week I think it is likely the 18 month low has occured, the phasing below revealing perhaps a nominal 40 day component margin of error. Tricky when the smaller cycles' amplitude has been crushed. @SentientTrader
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A nice example of the two main periodic features in #uranium below 200 days, via $UEC. Namely around 150 and 75 days, both shown below. The 150's phase is hard up whilst the component around 75 days is hard down.
There is a fight on.
When the phase of the 75 day component turns up (mid-late May) both will be working together to produce a bullish finish.
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#uranium starting to establish the down leg of the excellent periodic feature around 150-160 days wavelength. Mid-late Jan 2025 the bottom for this one.
sigma-l.net/p/uranium-cycles…
#uranium and now the bulls are exuberant it is time for this excellent cycle, circa 150 days, to begin it's peaking process.
Lots of bragging from macro accounts on X a cursory signal for a peak, quite a contrast to relative despair at the trough in August.
This was one of the best bullish trades of the last 4 years with amplitude just about matching the Aug 2021 move as far as the composite goes. Individual sector instruments varied in amplitude (volatility) only.
Composite below is $CCJ $DNN $UUUU $URA and $NXE as previously.
sigma-l.net/p/uranium-cycles…
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Bullish 40 day nominal low being established in #Cryptocurency. Both #bitcoin $BTCUSD and #Ethereum $ETHUSD not interacting with the 40 day FLD and undershooting 20 day FLD cross targets to the downside. Expecting 80 day nominal peak early-mid Sept, more precision as we approach
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