Mathematician, Data science @PFF. A simple mind thinks everything that didn't happen couldn't have happened. Tweets/opinions are my own.
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Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time.
Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is:
pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-…
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It's Pro Bowl week so here is your first annual reminder Mitch Trubisky couldn't complete a pass over a glass panel
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Travis Hunter is the perfect fit for the Giants now, because he can play wide receiver on Jameis' good passes and cornerback on Jameis' bad passes.
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helluva run.
His side of the ball wasn't allowed to keep the good players, unfortunately
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rare occurence where there are six 5-win teams in the NFC, but a 4-win team holds the #1 seed.
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When Taylor Heinicke's career is over, he can just start a yearly column in which he predicts which QBs get benched in the coming season. Because he predicts it correctly every single offseason
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If you think about it Eli Manning was worse at every single on-field trait, but he was a better QB than Justin Herbert because he refused to play for the Chargers.
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Justin Fields has
- fewer rush TDs than Jamaal Williams
- lower yds per attempt than Zach Wilson
- fewer pass TDs than Jared Goff
- lower passer rating than Andy Dalton
(sorry I'm legally obliged to play this game whenever I see it)
Justin Fields has:
▪︎ More rush TD than Christian McCaffrey
▪︎ More rush yds than Dalvin Cook
▪︎ As many pass TD as Tom Brady
▪︎ Higher pass rating than Dak Prescott
Redefining DUAL-THREAT #DaBears
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If the Bears choose between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye..
Williams: Concerns are in-pocket/in structure. Exactly what Fields struggles with in the NFL. Bears might get PTSD.
Maye: No concerns, but North Carolina. Exactly where Mitch Trubisky played. Bears might get PTSD.
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Hot take: The Raiders paid like 60% of what the Rams paid to the same player
The Raiders are signing Hunter Renfrow to a 2-year, $32M deal, per @TomPelissero
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The Chargers just lost 20-23 while their QB had probably the best game a QB had this season and this is not an overstatement
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The Jags drafted Trevor Lawrence without needing to trade up, then got another first overall pick the year after, still have Trevor on a rookie contract and feel completely average and irrelevant going into next season.
We need a study on how they botched this.
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2018: Gurley is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
August: Zeke is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
September/October: McCaffrey is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
December/Janaury: Derrick Henry is the...
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Burrow also played a really really good game overall, I think, but man, when Mahomes is making plays on one ankle to Marcus Kemp while Burrow is throwing to Chase & Higgins, it just hits different.
QB1, always has been.
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The AAF made it only to 8 games and still every single team won more games than Hue Jackson in 2016 & 2017.
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I don't want to be too dramatic and heroize Mahomes too much, but beyond this it can be noted that he received snaps to his feet all night and in a do-or-die drive his other receiver ran 10 yards backwards to set up 2nd&13 instead of 2nd&short. Unreal.
Mahomes led the Chiefs in rushing yards and his two leading WRs were Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson
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Borrowing cap space from the future and retiring when it's time to pay the debts is such a boss move
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Two Patriots users picked Cole Strange in the first round of the @PFF mock draft simulator.
Patriots fans had a total of 783k mock drafts.
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If Trevor Lawrence earns a franchise QB contract at any point in his career, he should give 10% of it to Josh Lambo
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Davante Adams should ask to get traded to the Vikings defense in order to catch passes from Aaron Rodgers
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Ceiling: Justin Herbert
Middle ground: what the public thinks Justin Herbert is
Floor: what Tuanon thinks Justin Herbert is
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Myles Garrett is already back to doing what he does best: Breaking scales
x-Axis: Double team/chip %
y-axis: Performance when not doubled
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Cameron Dicker is 93/99 on field goals in the regular season.
Hit or miss, after his next FG attempt, he will take the #1 spot on the "official" all-time FG% leaderboard, which is regular season only and includes kickers with 100 attempts.
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After being drafted to the New England Patriots dynasty and then being traded to Kyle Shanahan, I'd sure wish for him that he finally gets into a winning situation
Jimmy Garoppolo says he expects to be traded from the San Francisco 49ers and he wants to be sent to a winning situation:
espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3319…
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Quarterbacks went off the board at No. 8, No. 10 and No. 12.
The NFL is overdoing it with QBs in the first round, why don't they use this exact range of picks to select one of these safe blue chip prospects who will transform your franchise to the better
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Honestly, the best combination might be a play-calling offensive HC and a DC who failed at HC before.
Liam Coen called NFL plays for one (1) season and was offered the highest coordinator contract in NFL history, per Albert Breer, and "Ben Johnson money" to be the next head coach of the Jags, per Dianna Russini.
Coaches who don't call offensive plays (like Todd Bowles) are going to face a constant uphill battle to retain good OCs.
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when missing wide right gets a new meaning
🚨3x Catholic Super Bowl Champ Harrison Butker SLAMS BIDEN on FULL-BLAST during Commencement speech:
"Our own nation is led by a man who proudly proclaims his Catholic faith, but at the same time is delusional enough to make the Sign of The Cross during a pro-abortion rally... being "Catholic," alone, does not cut it."
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I'm not sure what to make of the fact the 49ers chose the much worse quarterback in 2005 and yet they've made it to the Super Bowl more often than the Packers since then.
Having an elite QB *can* be bad when it masks organisational deficiencies, because you never bottom out.
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Patrick Mahomes will throw to a 34 year old tight end and a few unproven or proven mediocre receivers next season and is favored to win the Super Bowl after losing his long time offensive coordinator.
Let that sink in.
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In other words, the Carolina Panthers have the same number of wins as the NFC #1 seed
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I really wonder what Patrick Mahomes is doing on the field if it's not quarterbacking
.@danorlovsky7 says Joe Burrow is the “best quarterback in football” 👀
“Patrick Mahomes, best player. He’s the most talented player in the NFL and he’s the most dynamic weapon. Joe Burrow’s the best quarterback in football when it comes to quarterbacking.”
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Oh no, Chris Jones is ruining the scale here.
(He is basically what Aaron Donald was when Aaron Donald was still in the league)
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One of the weirdest things is that NFL teams always tend to wait until the offense under the bridge QB had enough bad games before they start the rookie QB.
That's literally waiting for confirmation that their team is too bad to support a QB and then starting the rookie
A QB change in New England: the Patriots are now planning to turn to rookie first-round pick Drake Maye to start Sunday’s game against the Houston Texans, per source.
Maye now will join Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix as the fourth rookie quarterback to start this season.
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Trevor Lawrence career arc
National champion
Runner up
Semi-finalist
AFC South 4th place
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If you think about it the Panthers could have had Lamar for two first-round picks and opted to take Bryce Young for two first round picks, two second-round picks and DJ Moore
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If Jared Goff had a "perfect" game, how do we call the better QB's performance in the same game?
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Brady's last two drives were touchdowns to tie a game, including a 55 yard bomb to Mike Evans over the best corner in the league. Dude is 44 and leaves the game on top. Unreal career.
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The Chiefs already have a better point differential at 5-3 then they had at 15-2 last year
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165,214
Offensive tackle performance when left on an island (no help, no chip etc.) and how often that happens.
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Saying Jordan Davis can only play 50% of the snaps means you haven't seen Vita Vea rushing the passer. And Davis is more athletic
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Biggest QB contracts/extensions this offseason:
Aaron Rodgers 3-6
Russell Wilson 3-5
Kyler Murray 3-6
Deshaun Watson - suspended
Derek Carr - 2-6
Matt Stafford - 3-5
...
wait for it
...
Kirk Cousins 7-1😤
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Since 2010, Tom Brady got a roughing the passer call on 2.1% of his sacks or hits, that ranks 61st among 91 QBs with 100+ sacks/hits since then.
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The AFC has three types of QBs.
Those who have all-world weapons: Tua, Stroud, Burrow
Those who don't have all-world weapons: Herbert, Lamar, Allen, Trevor
Those who win the Super Bowl: Mahomes
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Mitch Trubisky got drafted in 2017, sat behind Glennon for a few games, was benched in 2020, didn't play at all in 2021 and has 200 more career dropbacks than Jimmy Garoppolo who was drafted in 2014 and had two deep playoff runs.
It's insane how little Jimmy G has played still.
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The Chargers once threw a pick-six and lost the game and ultimately the season because Gerald Everett did not sub out when he was not physically able to play the next snap.
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Imagine the feeling when you are an active NFL quarterback with longer MVP odds than a retired quarterback
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The Bengals went 9-8 against the hardest schedule with like six of their games with a healthy starting quarterback
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How Tom Brady adapted to Arians' downfield offense without losing his ability to get rid of the ball quickly is one the most impressive things we've seen from a QB, let alone a 43-year old QB, I think.
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An NFL front office really thought Jamal Adams would be worth two first round picks, this is insane.
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People will get super mad at that tweet, but my honest takeaway from week 1 is that Patrick Mahomes is probably further away from the rest of the league in terms of quarterbacking than we already thought to begin with.
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*If* Tua fails in the NFL while Josh Allen succeeds, it might be time to address the magnitude with which receivers in college matter for a QB.
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Imagine someone telling you 10 years ago that the All-Pro votes for QB after the 2021 season are entirely split between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
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Getting from 3-13-ish to .500-ish is relatively "easy". We see that happen all the time.
Building up on that and proceeding to 12-5 and 15-2 is almost unheard of. A lot of things falling in place there, but this is one of the best multi-year coaching jobs we've seen.
The Detroit Lions since hiring Dan Campbell:
🦁 2021: 3-13
🦁 2022: 9-8
🦁 2023: 12-5, Loss in NFC Championship
🦁 2024: 15-2
DAWG 😤
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Justin Herbert is the only QB who could put up a MVP performance in a 15-17 loss lmao
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Hot take: If you call a QB sneak, you subject yourself to a situation where the refs can't really see the ball and still have to make a close call. It's just a risk you accept, so you better want to leave no doubt that you got it.
However, the sneaks before that 4th down sneak didn't give any confidence that the Bills could sneak this clearly beyond the marker. So they subjected themselves to a judgement call as the road team. It's just not clever at the end of the day.
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I still can't believe the Saints tried the "pair an aging HoF QB with one of the best rosters in the league" approach four times straight and failed each time just to see the division rival Bucs do exactly the same and succeed in the first year
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#Chiefs yards per play rank in the Patrick Mahomes era:
2018: 1st
2019: 2nd
2020: 2nd
2021: 1st
2022: 1st
2023: 9th
2024: 22nd
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What I don't understand about these trades. Why in the world is Kenny Clark involved.
The Packers would need Kenny Clark in 2025 more than a 2026 3rd round pick.
The Cowboys would need a 2026 3rd round pick more than Kenny Clark in 2025.
It makes no sense for either team.
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Bengals OL combined pass blocking grade yesterday
w/ Joe Burrow in the field yesterday: 49.9
w/ Jake Browning on the field: 73.1
In 2023 it was 67.2 with Browning and 54.6 with Burrow.
It's a weird paradox that Burrow is much better, but his play comes with diminished returns, because the Bengals OL just can't deal with his offense.
Will be interesting to see how Zac Taylor can adjust this time over a long time of 3 months.
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Most valuable non-QBs during first 4 years in the NFL per PFF WAR, since 2006:
1) Michael Thomas
2) Darrelle Revis
3) Richard Sherman
4) Mike Evans
5) Tyreek Hill
Chris Godwin and Jamal Adams both can surpass Hill in 2019 (both need roughly 80-90% of their best year in 2020)
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The Bengals just got
- a touchdown on 4th down
- a 2pt conversion
- a successful onside kick
- a 29 yard touchdown with the game clock hitting zeros
- a 2pt conversion
Imagine this happening in a meaningful game. Everything would explode.
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The Saints only recovered the onside kick in Super Bowl 44 because Peyton Manning counted 17% against the cap in that year.
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Sauce Gardner covered Gabriel Davis and Stefon Diggs for a combined 25 snaps and gave up one target for six yards, no first down.
If he doesn't win DROY because of "only" two interceptions, we riot. When Stefon Diggs earns zero targets against you, you can't catch INTs.
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it's definitely way too early to say this gives me Jalen Reagor - Justin Jefferson vibes, so I won't tweet it
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PFF passing grade on incompletions or interceptions over the last three weeks:
Justin Herbert 71.7
Dak Prescott 58.9
Josh Allen 46.9
Kenny Pickett 46.2
Everyone else below 45.
Herbert hat 10 dropped passes beyond the sticks over this timeframe. Dak ranks second with 5.
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Patrick Mahomes just completed a first ballot hall of fame career within 5 years of starting and people choose to be mad about refs. Amazing
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Double team rates for edge rushers and how well they perform when not double-teamed.
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I know probably 5 people in this world are going to even watch the film, but Herbert is just having the greatest QB game ever on a team that scores 10 points.
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the funniest thing about this Saints loss is that a high draft pick means it's even harder for them to get under the cap
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No matter how obvious, once an ironic tweet reaches a certain number of people, there will always be people missing the irony
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