Federal Treasury, Head of Global Strategy TD London, Advisor to PM, punter. Speaker. MD Market Economics.
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My 2026 forecasts:
GDP H1 lifts to 2.5%; sub 2.0% in H2
Unemployment rate to 5%
Inflation eases 2.0 to 2.25%
Wages growth soggy at 3%
RBA cuts to 3.10%
10 yr bonds 4.00%
AUD lifts to 75 c
House prices – no change, downside risks
ASX200 – below 8,000
piped.video/watch?v=u6007K2J…
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No sure why so many people are angry at Scott Morrison.
It's not like he's done anything.
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Jim Chalmers is very rude. Interrupting the questions with answers. #Insiders
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On @RNBreakfast right now, Finance Minister Birmingham admits the govt has agreed to build these new submarines without knowing the cost of them or the cost of breaking the deal with France for the old ones.
This is the Minister for Finance!
No wonder the budget is in tatters
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I'm sorry; but when you have the RBA Governor happy to see a recession and people being forced to sell their houses in order to get already falling inflation half a per cent lower in a year or two, I think we have a major problem with a so-called independent policy maker.
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If he gets a chance, Jim Chalmers just showed why he is likely rival Paul Keating as Australia's best Treasurer.
His understanding of the macro drivers of productivity, income & the interaction of policy decisions, fairness & equity show insights that will serve Australia well.
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Mr Dutton has never held an economic portfolio - surely that goes against him being Opposition leader?
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Half price flights?
Not a bad idea to encourage tourism.
How about half price university fees to encourage education?
And while you're at it, half the level of student debt outstanding.
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I did a fact check on all the claims made by Mr Chalmers.
He is 100% accurate.
Every journalist should spend 5 minutes of their busy lives looking at this & take notes before they ask politicians campaigning in the election any questions on the economy & policy.
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Paul Keating's magnificant superannuation policy, implemented 30 years ago, has boosted the wealth of all workers.
It is but one example of what can happen when you have a 30 plus year plan on significant issues.
#Insiders
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First home buyer:
"Great - I can pull $50k out of my super. That means I can bid an extra $50k at the auction"
This is how the horrible super for housing policy will work
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The last time "Labor didn't manage money", the Australian economy avoided the deep global recession, unemployment stayed below 6%, wages kept rising and all 3 credit rating agencies awarded the Australian government a AAA credit rating... Just saying
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This is utterly brilliant.
Worth two minutes of your time
In every way that you measure tax in the Budget this Government has taxed more than the last Labor Government. That's just a fact. @PressClubAust #auspol #ausvotes
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Government debt just hit a new record:
A stonking $857 billion.
The govt will be borrowing a further $4.5 billion next week.
I am sure the media will cover this extraordinary result with the same gusto as it did this week when the PM had a haircut & cooked a sausage.
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Curious to see how the franking credit reform was so damaging to those advocating it (Labor) even though it impacted just 3% of the population, yet those wanting to cut the retirement savings of every worker over every year of their working life (Coalition) is not being crucified
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Staggering that David Crowe & Fran Kelly are suggesting Labor has a problem of 'where the money will come from' to fund its promises.
They fail to note that the Coalition, which promised budget surpluses, has delivered 8 deficits & has 40 more years of deficits ahead
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"Get the government out of peoples lives"
So:
no road building
no Medicare
no education funding
no age pension
no NDIS
no PBS
no childare assistance
no drought assistance for farmers
no child support
no ABC
no NBN
no vocational training
no BOM
no natural disaster relief
No idea!
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The Morrison government borrowed another $2.15 billion today: Will borrow a further $5.0 billion in the next 2 days.
And they cant find $50 million for the ABC?
The hit to the ABC from the government has nothing to do with money
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According to the climate denying extremists, when the sun doesn't shine, solar is no good;
When the wind doesn't blow, wind farms are no good;
But when it's not raining, build a dam!
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When Bob Hawke won in 1983, GDP growth was -2.3%; yes that is a minus sign
Unemployment was 10.0%
Interest rates were 10%
Inflation was 11.4%
This was the legacy of John Howard as Treasurer who somehow now claims to be a good economic manager
#auspol
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Every now and then, Australia has a great day.
21 May 2022 will go down in history as one of those
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Oh no - using superannuation to buy a house!
There's another $50,000 on house prices.
What a horrible decision.
#AusVotes2022
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I get the feeling many people do not understand what superannuation is for.
Financial illiteracy is a massive problem
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What sort of person would undertake a $750,000 house renovation and have the temerity and absence of shame to claim $25,000 from the government?
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And to think, 10 years ago Australia had a price on carbon, carbon emissions were falling, business investment was booming and real wages were growing solidly...
Those were the days #qt
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A friendly reminder of the data on annual inflation.
On #insiders it was suggested inflation was troubling and accelerating:
Dec 2022 7.8%
Mar 2023 7.0%
Jun 2023 6.0%
Sep 2023 5.4%
Dec 2023 4.1%
Mar 2024 3.6%
Lazy journalism or mischievous in the extreme
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Adam Bandt will lose his seat:
If the non-Green candidates in Melbourne preference each other before Bandt, he will be rolled.
That would be a good thing
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Amid this climate carnage, recall that Australia once was a world leader on climate policy with an effective price on carbon. Emissions fell, businesses & consumers easily adapted. The Coalition vandalised this & need to be held accountable for their role in this current mayhem
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I just discovered @JEChalmers has only 61,000 twitter followers:
Jim will be Treasurer in a few months, will present a budget in about 7 months and will inherit a shit sandwich of a budgetary position to fix over the next few years.
Follow this man!
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There is something fundamentally wrong when society relies on charity for basics - food, shelter, care, research, emergencies, etc. It’s a clear reflection govt policy in those areas is woefully inadequate. There would be no need for charity with a genuinely decent system of govt
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Iron ore around US$100 a tonne:
If only we had a mining super profits tax - would be collection tens of billions of dollars exactly when it is needed. Mining companies would still be making a bucket of cash.
Tony Abbott abolished that - classic policy vandalism
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What a shit show.
NSW developing a Vaccination Passport app which will no doubt be different to that of VIC, WA, TAS etc.
Surely the Federal Govt should be doing this and have a consistent app for consistency? When people travel?
Will we need to download 8 such apps in time?
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Good old Australia Day!
Australia:
Unemployment 4.0%
Inflation 2.3%
Wages 3.5%
ASX - record high
Household wealth - record high
$4 trillion in superannuation
2 Budget surpluses
One of the highest per capita GDP countries in the world
I'll take that scorecard any & every day
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Adam Creighton was Senior Adviser to Tony Abbott; then Economic Adviser to Mathias Cormann.
I think QandA should have disclosed that.
#QandA
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At the MCG last night, they flashed up an apology for the huge queues at the bars & food stalls. They said they could not get enough staff to meet the demands of a crowd of just 53,000
A couple of issues. The economy is at over full employment; pay more & you will get more staff
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It is looking more likely that inflation will be close to 9% by year end. This will be a huge issue - obviously - that needs to be addressed aggressively now. The policy errors of the RBA and Morrison govt are something to behold. In a very bad way.
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I assume a good journo will ask Mr Morrison what level of government debt the Coalition inherited from Labor in September 2013 and what did the recent budget papers project it to be at the end of this financial year?
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Huge shout out to Jim Chalmers re Newspoll. From a gap of 20 points on the “better economic manager” question, the gap is now 2 points.
“It’s the economy, stupid” no longer a plus for the Coalition. This is an important change
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In the first 113 years of the Australian Federation, all governments accumulated total debt of $280 billion - including wars & depression.
In the last 8 years the Coalition government has added $605 billion to government debt.
#insiders
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The revenue lost from Abbott abolishing the mining super profits tax is extraordinary. If it was still in place it could fund free childcare, $100 a fortnight rise in JobSeeker and still leave a lower budget deficit
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One the first things the newly elected Abbott Govt did in 2013 was abolish the mining super profits tax.
That single misguided decision has damaged the budget by many tens of billions of dollars, money that could have been used for health, aged care, roads - whatever.
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I’m old enough to remember when Australia had a price on carbon, that drove per capita consumption of electricity lower and sparked a surge in investment in renewable energy. Envy of the world it was
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Mr Frydenberg doesn’t realise that the cash giveaways he’s talking about are adding to inflation pressures Its making things worse. What a debacle
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A deep recession; mass unemployment; mass business failures.
Let's build a few gas pipes over the next 5 years and call it a great big plan for fixing the economy.
Come on... Wake up folks - you're being conned
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The government borrowed $2.0 billion today: Couldn't find $50 million or so for the ABC?
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Two of the early decisions of the Coalition government in 2013/2014 were to abolish the mining profits tax and end the pricing of carbon.
At the time, they were shortsighted & illogical.
In 2021, these decisions are reprehensible and economic and environmental vandalism.
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If the govt abolished franking credits refunds, JobSeeker could increase by around $60 a week and there would be no net effect on the budget bottom line in perpetuity.
Just saying.
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I've had a look, but can't find a time when a Coalition govt delivered, simultaneously, 4% unemployment, with 2.5% inflation, 3.5% wages growth, a record high on the ASX & consecutive budget surpluses - as we have now.
This is using a data base that goes back to the late 1960s.
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The financial wreckage 'left by Labor' in September 2013:
Gross govt debt $273 billion
Net Govt debt $175 billion or 10% of GDP
Today:
Gross govt debt $570 billion
Net govt debt $430 billion or 21.5% of GDP #qt
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Katy Gallagher is Shadow Minister for Finance.
Not one question on Insiders on her portfolio.
Curious, when on Friday the govt confirmed debt at $851 billion - a level never before seen in Australia & the Budget deficit this year is set to be around $100 billion.
#Insiders
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The last time the unemployment rate was below 4%, namely 1974, average wages growth was 27.9%.
Just sayin'
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Imagine how Brittany Higgins is feeling watching this disgusting performance of Gaetjens. More concern for the PMO staff than her.
I trust she is getting a lot of support in these difficult times.
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Seriously, all issues aside, this is grossly inept.
Australia's economic policy response to the coronavirus is the slowest, stingiest, meanest, most vindictive in the industrialised world.
I am not aware of any govt in a developed country that has been so utterly incompetent.
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WTF was that rubbish on @abc730 ?
Sarah Ferguson suggested Jim Chalmers ask Yellon for suggestions on managing the economy.
Last 3 budgets in the US averaged a budget deficit of 6% of GDP pa
Last 3 budgets in Australia averaged a budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP pa
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Accessing super to buy a house is another unfair gendered policy decision.
Men have significantly higher super balances than women, even from a young age. This means men will have a much great opportunity to draw down their super to buy a house than women.
#WomenVote
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So Dutton will go to the next election promising to lift income tax on those earning below approx $130,000 to fund tax cuts for those earning more than that.
I see
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Fabulous marketing from Mr Morrison.
Everyone talking about daggy photos & his shorts & not:
Record low wages growth;
7.0% unemployment;
10.4% underemployment;
Record budget deficit;
Record govt debt;
Bastardisation of super.
The proverbial dead cat on the table.
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If Labor were smart, they would pledge to restore ABC funding to 2013 levels (in real terms).
Not only would it be good for the community & society, it would likely be a significant vote winner. Focus the increase on local content.
The cost to the budget is peanuts.
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Can the same person be Australian of the Year two years in a row?
Not sure Grace would want to, but I suspect there would be strong community support @TamePunk
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That's not a budget, that's economic vandalism.
Adding to inflation pressures, adding to debt in good economic times, adding nothing to productivity.
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Atheists have few hang ups about who others have sex with, what clothes to wear, what days of the week we can work, what food we can eat, what other people think. They don’t demand money or tax breaks. There might be something in this
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An observation:
If you have a full time job, with regular pay, 4 weeks leave, sick leave, super, you have all but won the lottery.
Freelancers, gig workers, casuals are in severe stress - this is where a large part of the next fiscal stimulus should be directed
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People generally don't retweet pictures of the contents of a toilet before it has been flushed, but they freely retweet the articles written in the The Australian.
This is a paradox I don't understand.
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They don’t call it the “Rudd recession” because there wasn’t one!
This is unlike just about every other country in the western world which fell into recession.
Kevin Rudd’s policies avoided a recession in Australia.
Morrison’s policies have not avoided a recession in 2020
#qanda
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And what do you know?
Electricity prices are about 6% lower today than when Labor won the election.
It's funny how things evolve
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The Australian government is sending money to Russia in the form of interest payments on the Australian bonds the Bank of Russia holds.
An interesting decision from the Treasurer.
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I did a radio talkback segment:
One caller complained they were ineligible for the pension because they had too much money in super ... and they were complaining about that.
What do you say to greedy, socially unaware people?
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In terms of seats in the House of Representatives, this is likely to be the worse Liberal result in its history. Amazing the more you dig into the election results.
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Just when the economy was looking good, very good in fact, along comes another epic failure in leadership from Mr Morrison in planning for & dealing with the coronavirus.
Hard to get tested, waiting months for 3rd dose - businesses being hit, holidays cancelled. Another stuff up.
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Is this a joke? A senior Minister who, with the stroke of a pen, could find billions of dollars and resources to help people
A true bludger expecting others to do the heavy lifting in this disaster
Thank you so much to those who have already donated to help those Australians so devastated by the bushfires. Here is the link to the Red Cross Appeal - please donate if you can.
redcross.org.au/campaigns/di…
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The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, will be getting some ugly news in his discussions with Treasury Secretary Kennedy and RBA's Lowe.
Jim has been handed the proverbial shit sandwich
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I am surprised the Labor Party doesn’t help the self confidence to sell the fact to the electorate that the Stage 3 tax cuts are unaffordable, reckless, unfair and economic vandalism and that things have changed since the election so they should be repealed. It’s an easy sell
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Imagine the swing to Labor Federally in a years time when the tax cuts are being paid, interest rates are cut, real wages are rising strongly, the govt is paying down debt and people are even wealthier. #DunkleyByelection
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NFF on the @RNBreakfast claiming a scarcity of labour to pick fruit & veggies.
This is wrong - more than 2 million people unemployed or wanting more hours.
The problem is poor pay - simple. If workers were offered decent pay, every mango & cauliflower would be picked.
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Not sure why Frdenberg is peddling this 'death taxes' stuff form Labor.
Mr Frydenberg prefers to tax you when you are alive - he is set to become the highest taxing Treasurer Australia has ever had
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No more Royal Commissions on basic policy issues please:
Ministers - just do your job. Don't waste time and money finding out what a TV program can find with a hand full of reporters
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When government debt was below $275 billion, the Liberal Party said it was a "debt & deficit disaster".
Now, with government debt on track to hit $1.1 trillion, the same people are saying it is "entirely appropriate".
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Annual inflation in Australia:
Dec-22 8.4%
7an-23 7.5%
Feb-23 6.8%
Mar-23 6.3%
Apr-23 6.7%
May-23 5.5%
Jun-23 5.4%
Jul-23 4.9%
Aug-23 5.2%
Sep-23 5.6%
Oct-23 4.9%
Nov-23 4.3%
Dec-23 3.4%
This free-fall in incredible.
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Humiliating for the RBA. Inflation is running rampant. What a policy error from this rabble of an institution.
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If China is a military threat in the Asia-Pacific and to Australia more specifically, why does the Morrison government allow Australia to export unlimited amounts of iron ore, coal, natural gas, copper & rare earths to China?
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I wonder how Mr Morrison will deal with issues relating to men and boys, given he doesn't have a son?
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A few sick refugees are allowed into Australia. The rabid frenzy this causes highlights the sad state of politics. Meanwhile 1.75 million people are under or unemployed, wages growth is at near record lows, wealth is falling, biz investment is falling, govt debt is at record high
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PMO is now frantically looking for some country where wages growth is lower than in Australia ...
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I'm old enough to remember when the ABC's Chief Political Correspendent left to work for Prime Minister Tony Abbott.
abc.net.au/news/2014-12-23/m…
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If you didn't think the Trump political play book was evident in Australia, I suggest you look at the horrifying Gaetjens testimony before the Senate.
An utter disgrace.
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Can someone show me any research / work done that shows the Coalition are better economic managers than Labor?
Anyone?
Given no one can, I think it important the media pack stop saying the "Coalition is campaigning on the economy, it's strong point" #auspol
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Sunday observation:
Wages & the value society puts on different jobs:
Teacher ~$80k
Nurse ~$70k
Senior merchant banker ~$500k ++
Partner consultancy firm ~$1M ++
Not sure we have this right
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I've lived 3+ decades of economic policy making in Australia.
The current crop of those who pull the policy levers are the worst I have seen.
Backward looking, frightened, unaware, sluggish & always expecting tomorrow to bring better time that never come.
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Ross Greenwood is not aware Australia is one of the best performing economies in the world.
So too Tinker Taylor.
Can they or anyone name another country with 2.4% inflation, 4.1% unemployment with govt debt under 25% of GDP?
No - I deplore the economic debate
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The Kevin Rudd we are seeing now is the one we admired so much when he won the 2007 election & amazingly saved Australia from recession ... Good on him - I hope he keeps this up
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Fran Kelly saying Australia "at the mercy of international supply chains" for COVID-19 vaccination.
I wonder how 56 other countries who are vaccinating their citizens have not been at that mercy?
The Australian govt has been asleep at the wheel getting the vaccine @RNBreakfast
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