TargetSmart is the industry leader in political data and its applications.
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🎉We are beyond excited to announce that @lizmwalters will join us as our next CEO.
Liz is a proven leader and champion for progress who helped deliver major wins for @OHDems --she brings deep experience in politics, organizing, and innovation that will drive TargetSmart forward.
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"In some states women are actually exceeding their vote share from 2020, which is at this point shocking to me,” said @tbonier
Women are far outpacing men in voting early. It’s giving Democrats hope. ow.ly/mN6P105NlVa
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New @_TargetSmart/@williamandmary FL poll: HRC 48 - DJT 40
Early voters from FL SoS: 55 - 38
Likely voters, haven't voted yet: 42 - 43
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Senior Advisor @tbonier said he has been surprised by what he is calling the “silver surge” in early voting from older Democrats.
Trump lagging in early vote with seniors in Pennsylvania, a red flag for GOP ow.ly/UARe105NyBC
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“I believe there has been a coordinated effort to change the perception of this race,” @tbonier senior adviser at research firm @TargetSmart & veteran political strategist, told Fortune.
Recent polls show an ultra-close race with Vice President Kamala Harris just barely in the lead, but prediction markets like Polymarket and PredictIt tell a very different story. trib.al/mYk3RuB
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Our analysis has found a surge in youth voter registration after Parkland Shooting: targetsmart.com/analysis-aft…
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🚨 Just launched! Our new Voter Registration Dashboard is live!
“With so much noise in our political discourse, this Dashboard brings unparalleled transparency and clarity to analyzing the 2024 election,” said Senior Advisor @tbonier
Start exploring now: targetsmart.com/the-targetsm…
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Excited to release new polling data in partnership with @fairfightaction showing deep unpopularity of AZ GOP's voter suppression agenda and broad national support for key provisions in #ForThePeopleAct and #VotingRightsAct #EndVoterSuppressionNow #AZpol bit.ly/3weYka5
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BREAKING: @_TargetSmart/@williamandmary FL poll: HRC 48 - DJT 40
Early voters from FL SoS: 55 - 38
Likely voters, haven't voted yet: 42 - 43
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"They need to turn out young people and people who don’t regularly vote..." @tbonier talking to @NYMag ⬇️
There is a lot of new data from early-voting swing states — and a lot of uncertainty and anxiety, reports David Freedlander. trib.al/tdNDm7m
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Another solid conversation about early voting with @tbonier, @AJentleson & @ChrisJansing on @MSNBC ⬇️
piped.video/QeHjzCVHBBA?si=VvP3…
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Did he say Montana?
Yes @tbonier did--watch the full @CBSNews clip to find out what a massive increase in voter registration among Native Americans may mean for Big Sky Country
piped.video/watch?v=LrMvDHIA…
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"@tbonier, a senior adviser at market research firm TargetSmart, has identified a few trends suggesting that a female backlash against Trump is already underway."
More in Opinion by @JRubinBlogger in @washingtonpost ⬇️
To put it plainly, Trump’s thrashing at the hands of a smart, strong Black woman — who ridicules his crowd size and calls him a loser — has utterly unnerved him. He practically foams at the mouth talking about her, no doubt unhinged by the prospect that he could very well lose the White House, this time to a woman, and face renewed prosecution.
wapo.st/3UEF2ZQ
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"You think she just fell out of a coconut tree?" 🥥🌴
Loving the lead in from @tessastuart in her @RollingStone piece featuring our senior advisor @tbonier
rollingstone.com/politics/po…
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📊 Just days left before Election Day! Our own @tbonier shares pre-election insights using our #TargetEarly data, showing “The Harris Effect” on voter registration:
🔹 16% shift favoring Dems
🔹 Growth among Black, Hispanic, AAPI voters
🔹 Women out-registering men in battleground states
🔗 targetsmart.com/the-impact-o…
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ICYMI: @tbonier & @SimonWDC on @thereidout tonight
on what the surge of early voting may mean this election season ⬇️
piped.video/LBNbo0ij5h8?si=LCLf…
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The Harris Effect: Young voters, women, & communities of color are leading a surge in voter registration post-VP Harris’ nomination. 📊🌊
Check out our latest analysis from Team TargetSmart & @tbonier ➡️ targetsmart.com/the-harris-e…
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"According to @tbonier, young women are out-voting young men at a higher rate than they did in 2020. Even more so, he said, looking at early vote data, “there’s higher turnout from young voters of color, and especially young women of color.” More from @TeenVogue ⬇️
Early vote data in WI, NC, & GA shows strength from young voters - a good sign for Harris. As early vote expert @tbonier tells me: “There’s higher turnout from young voters of color, and especially young women of color.” New @TeenVogue. teenvogue.com/story/youth-vo…
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We are excited to announce the launch of TargetEarly, a first of its kind dashboard of state-by-state early vote data. Information will be updated twice a day & includes a wealth of demographic data and modeled data like vote propensity, party ID and more. targetearly.targetsmart.com
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Talking early voting this afternoon on @MSNBC with @tbonier @AJentleson and @BrendanBuck ➡️piped.video/WRio4kGqjxI?si=lkIS…
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This is big! TargetEarly, TargetSmart’s interactive dashboard, has breakdowns of demographic data and can even compare against 2018 and 2016 numbers. TargetEarly is updated twice daily. Explore targetearly.targetsmart.com
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Despite GOP claims of winning voter registration in battlegrounds, @tbonier notes early vote data shows nearly a million first-time voters leaning Democratic—doubling Dems’ advantage and challenging Trump’s narrative. #EarlyVote
Bonier: We’ve heard from Republicans for four years now how they supposedly invested in voter registration. They say they’re winning the registration battle in places like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. Well, if that were true, we’d expect to see them doing better with these new registrants in the early vote, given their emphasis on it. What we’re actually seeing in terms of partisanship is that the partisanship of these first-time voters—and there’s almost a million of them in the Battleground States who have already cast a ballot—favors Democrats. It’s double the partisan advantage Democrats have across the entire universe of early voters. So, again, it’s an early sign, just one sign, but if we’re testing the theory of the case that Donald Trump himself tells us they’re going to win, we’re not seeing it.
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"You tweet, we call you," @JoyAnnReid to our own @TBonier, Senior Advisor at @TargetSmart, on #TheReidOut @MSNBC --Tom breaks down critical voter trends for #Election2024.
Watch here: piped.video/FwxPhB7iGxE?si=AYXa… #VoterData
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"Democratic strategist @tbonier said the early voting numbers so far are a surprise for Kamala Harris’s camp..." more from @Independent ⬇️
independent.co.uk/news/world…
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Not Just Kansas; Women Motivated to Vote in States with Repro Rights at Risk
insights.targetsmart.com/not…
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In battlegrounds ~12MM ballots have already been cast in '16. In '12 just 8MM were cast a week ahead of E-Day. nbcnews.to/2fbaaf1
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Aaaaand he's back-- @tbonier joined @AlexWitt again in the 2 o'clock hour to talk more about early vote 🗳️
piped.video/L8fySZuv3Ys?si=wtlS…
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On Sept 18 many states will begin the stages of early voting and so far Democrats have a massive advantage in early voting by mail, leading in every state except four. Here are three key takeaways:
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Among those who voted early Clinton leads by 7-points (48 to 41 percent). #LastWord #Election2016
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Women who have early voted give Clinton a 23-point advantage (55 to 32 percent). #LastWord #Election2016
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Our updated state-by-state analysis shows that younger voters are poised to have an impact in key battleground races like PA, where youth voter registration has surged by 10 points since the Parkland shooting
targetsmart.com/uptick-in-yo…
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"Nearly 13 million voters, including more than 6.9 million Democrats and 5.3 million Republicans, have voted early as of Oct. 21..."
forbes.com/sites/saradorn/20…
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These numbers are similar to our Florida findings.
, Among Early Voters:
North Carolina:
Clinton 58 (+22)
Trump 36
#Ohio:
Clinton 58 (+26)
Trump 32
bit.ly/2fiAr9v
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In Georgia and Texas, early vote rates among young voters has increased by nearly five times (not a typo). To stay updated on early vote data check out targetearly.targetsmart.com
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"@SimonWDC and @tbonier, the leading critics of these polling aggregations, are quick to point out that even shifts of a small magnitude produced by GOP polls risk badly misleading people." ⬇️
A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor. trib.al/A7uEKDl
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Key point from new ABC/WaPo tracker similar to our findings in FL: bit.ly/2eSNfpZ Stay tuned for full crosstabs later this morning.
Nearly 1 in 4 in new @ABC News/WaPo tracking poll say they've already voted; they back Clinton, 54-41%. abcn.ws/2edat6k
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"strategist @SimonWDC and data analyst @tbonier, who were skeptical of such predictions in 2022 and ultimately proved correct, are now warning that all this is happening again."
A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor. trib.al/X1HYiEo
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In this morning's @POLITICOPro Morning Score: A top Democratic political data firm is launching a new media buying platform with the hopes of making the digital ad buying process more efficient.
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🚨 Just launched: The 2024 Early Vote & Vote-by-Mail Dashboard!
📊 Get real-time data on early voting & optimize your outreach.
Learn more here:
targetsmart.com/targetsmart-…
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Thanks to @newsworthypod for having our own @tbonier on to talk about voter registration trends & what it all means!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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ICYMI: Senior Advisor @tbonier appeared on @thereidout last night. Watch the full clip: piped.video/UrZ5BO7nFFI?si=5bBQ…
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When we breakdown these > 46 MILLION early voters by gender we find women far out-pacing men in early voting. #ElectionInsight #Election2016
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That means, as the days tick by, “the campaign needs bigger Election Day turnout in North Carolina than they got in 2020,” said @tbonier
Black turnout is lagging in North Carolina, a warning sign for Harris ow.ly/2g3J105Nt9a
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FULL CROSSTABS NOW POSTED: bit.ly/2eSNfpZ
New @_TargetSmart/@williamandmary FL poll: HRC 48 - DJT 40
Early voters from FL SoS: 55 - 38
Likely voters, haven't voted yet: 42 - 43
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Clarification is key. Our data stands on integrity and accuracy, regardless of any outside spin. Join @tbonier today at 3PM as he briefs the public, takes questions & addresses the mischaracterizations in recent statements by the Trump campaign 🔗⬇️
Just 1️⃣ day ahead of the election, our own @tbonier will give his last briefing & you're invited at 3 pm eastern ⬇️
zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_…
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According to data from TargetSmart, the voter registration rate for young Black women in 13 key battleground states has skyrocketed to 175% — nearly triple the rate from the last presidential election four years ago.” via @theatlantavoice
In the latest by Quintessa Williams for Word in Black, she writes Kamala Harris’s groundbreaking campaign has now spearheaded another phenomenon: young Black women are currently leading the recent surge in voter registrations. theatlantavoice.com/black-wo…
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"The report further points to Democratic strategist @SimonWDC and data analyst @tbonier, who "were skeptical of such predictionsin 2022 and ultimately proved correct," and their warnings "that all this is happening again."
'That's a real problem!' Experts expose 'potentially serious' issue with polling data rawstory.com/trump-momentum-…
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"After voting by mail in 2020, many of the people choosing to vote in person on Nov. 5 will likely be younger and voters of color..." TargetSmart in @WSJ ⬇️ wsj.com/livecoverage/harris-…
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The Midwestern states that have been the center of Black Lives Matter protests have seen the biggest gains in voter registration for Democrats over the past few months according to our modeling.
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According to our analysis of early vote in NC, 57% ballots were cast by women and 23% by African-Americans. #ElectionInsight #Election2106
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In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-m…
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🚀 Following last night's debate performance by @KamalaHarris + @taylorswift13's endorsement, usage of our voter registration check API (powering the @votedotorg registration lookup tool & others) peaked at 4X the daily average!
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NEW ELECTION DATA
More than 3.6 million votes have already been cast in the 2020 general election. By comparison, roughly 415,000 people had voted at this point in 2016. Turnout is surging and Democrats have an early advantage among early and first-time voters.
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Pre-debate @_TargetSmart/@williamandmary poll in Ohio finds Clinton 43 - Trump 40
Full release & dashboard here: targetsmart.com/tswmp-ohio2/
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Senior Advisor, @tbonier, was on @InsidePolitics today discussing the Harris campaign’s momentum with @mkraju!
Don’t miss his expert take—watch here: piped.video/watch?v=kZy4v0Db… #Politics #InsidePolitics #Campaign2024
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“Polls will tell us how people are going to vote, but not who’s going to vote,” Senior Advisor @tbonier said, adding that early voting data is “not going to tell us who is going to win, but it’s good breadcrumbs.”
Here’s What To Know About Early Voting—As Data Shows Some Bright Spots For Democrats
go.forbes.com/c/FzTS
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Early vote has broken the 30 million number mark nationally. Take a dive into the numbers in this week's Smartshot → bit.ly/2fkjY67
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thanks for using our data ☑️
Early vote turnout is good—but we can't let up now
Via @Markos
dailykos.com/stories/2024/10…
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In OH, 28% of registered voters voted early. Our recent poll shows them supporting HRC 48-41 bit.ly/2fwcYla #ElectionInsight
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Our latest analysis shows Likely Clinton supporters leading in Early Vote totals. #ElectionInsight #Election2016
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“That someone is actually taking the time and energy to go out and register to vote, it's a sign that they are engaged." @tbonier ⬇️npr.org/2024/09/20/nx-s1-511…
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Our own @tbonier joined @JoyAnnReid & @MariaTeresa tonight talking voter turnout ⬇️ msnbc.com/the-reidout/watch/…
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How First Time and Low-Propensity Voters Are Helping Joe Biden Build an Early Vote Lead
insights.targetsmart.com/how…
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"Four days from Election Day, 53% of early voters nationally as of Friday have been women and 44% men, according to TargetSmart..."
usatoday.com/story/news/poli…
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While we're dismayed by the election results, we're committed to understanding, learning, and moving forward.
Now is the time to rebuild, strengthen our strategies, and keep pushing toward the progress we believe in.
Together, we'll come back stronger.
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Early vote numbers have reached 35,995,565! Stay tuned for more analysis throughout the day. #GOTV #Election2016
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THIS JUST IN: Latest National Early Vote total has surpassed 40 million. More analysis forthcoming. #Election2016
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Setting the Stage for Decisive Midterm Elections - insights.targetsmart.com/set…
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Watch @tbonier at 10pm!
We have Breaking News @TheLastWord at 10pm: important Florida poll. Remember @realDonaldTrump can't win without Florida.
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The big FIVE-OH.
50 Million Votes In & How to Interpret TX Turnout
insights.targetsmart.com/ins…
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Noteworthy Early Vote trends among Likely Clinton voters, women and low-propensity voters in our latest SmartShot → bit.ly/2fkjY67
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We are on pace to break the 40 MM mark of early votes cast. Follow us to stay up-to-date on the latest from our SmartShot analysis.
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New from @gdebenedetti: "@tbonier, the prominent Democratic data scientist, said he’d expected to see more of a Republican advantage in early voting among those voters who hadn’t been registered in 2020."
Ask any plugged-in Democrat how they’re feeling in the final 100 hours before Election Day, and there’s a good chance they’ll tell you they’re “nauseously optimistic.” @gdebenedetti reports, in one of his final pre-election dispatches: trib.al/HF4z9Np
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ICYMI earlier tonight. Full crosstabs available tomorrow.
New @_TargetSmart/@williamandmary FL poll: HRC 48 - DJT 40
Early voters from FL SoS: 55 - 38
Likely voters, haven't voted yet: 42 - 43
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Listen in on the convo as @tbonier helps break down what's really going on in the run up to Election Day ⬇️
Trumps Turnout Problem and Bold Predictions on Latest Episode of “That Trippi Show” podcast podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Get the full press release here: targetsmart.com/targetsmart-…
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52% of Registered Voters voted early in North Carolina. Using Party Scores, they break 54 Dem, 46 GOP. #ElectionInsight #Election2016
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"O’Rourke specifically brought up a recent finding from TargetSmart’s senior adviser, @tbonier -- nice shout @BetoORourke!
Doug Emhoff, husband of Vice President Kamala Harris, continued his Texas tour on Tuesday with former congressman Beto O’Rourke, raising over $1 million at an Austin fundraiser before enjoying lunch at Whataburger. texastribune.org/2024/09/24/…
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Let's go!
New @TargetSmart voter files for GA, FL, NC, KS, NV, CO, AR, MT, and VT are now live!
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Check out our recent FL poll through an interactive dashboard to see how the candidates perform based on our models: bit.ly/2eE0DeT
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Newly registered voters cast 10.2% of all early ballots. Analysis shows they're likely 45% Dem to 37% GOP. #ElectionInsight #Election2016
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we can't shake it off--adding on with another 24 hr surge of voter registration checks post debate + Swift endorsement.
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🔎 Early vote numbers are just the beginning.
Rushing to analyze them could lead to inaccurate conclusions. Get the full story in our latest from @tbonier ⬇️
targetsmart.com/the-case-for…
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what we need is a registrationomenon✨
Rise & shine! It’s #NationalVoterRegistrationDay! If you recently moved, changed your name, became a citizen, or haven't already registered to vote, today is a GREAT day to get #VoteReady.
Register to vote/check your #VoterRegistration status at bit.ly/2024nvrdreg
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TargetSmart and @Catalist_US partner to share phone data for voter outreach.
targetsmart.com/catalist-and…
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Democratic strategist @tbonier said one notable takeaway is that women are voting early at higher rates than men by "pretty substantial margins in every battleground state except Nevada."
Men and women have been voting differently in presidential elections for decades.
But could the gender gap be the deciding factor in this year's razor-thin race between Vice Pres. Kamala Harris and former Pres. Trump?
Read more: trib.al/Xmf6zCO
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