Strategy & Analytics Consultant: Corp, Govt, Ed, + Sports | @USC + @Wharton/@Penn MBA | Fmr @CIA | Sailor | Cyclist | ΣΧ | Awful Golfer. Love helping clients.

New York City + South Florida
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE STATE OF COLLEGE SPORTS FINANCES: (a thread🧵) 1/ There are areas that I think the media misses the boat on the $ state of college sports It starts with revenue: Rapidly growing gaps are getting worse, and unpromoted G5s are going to be in big trouble
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PAC-12 GOES DARK: When the lights go off in Pasadena tomorrow night, Pac-5/8/10/12 football as we know it will come to an end There will be new futures for all, but let's each raise a glass to 65 years of West Coast adventures as we enjoy these last games 🥂 * * * "I closed the box and put it in a closet. There is no real way to deal with everything we lose." "We forget all too soon the things we thought we could never forget. We forget the loves and the betrayals alike, forget what we whispered and what we screamed, forget who we were." - Joan Didion, Cal '56
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Replying to @DanWolken
On a pragmatic level... They're gonna be unpleasantly surprised by what they find in the burry miniscule edges of our genetic fringe. As with most things, Genetics gets a lot more complex than grifting bigots think. We did a study on this, and folks were surprised by (for example) how much more statistically likely it is for a "regular-born" woman to unknowingly have an undescended testicle inside somewhere, or man to unknowingly have an ovary, than it is for them to be trans and relevant to a college-age single-gender org. On a higher level, This is not about sports, though, and disingenuous to pretend that it is. It's just another way for bigots and grifters to needlessly shit on people they don't know, don't understand, and think they don't like. It's funny... Last time I was in a hotel, there was a book in the drawer with some good advice about taking care of those in need and protecting those who are been marginalized by society, while warning not to take advice from divisive grifters. Pretty good book! I wonder if any of these folks have seen it?
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HIGHLY CONCENTRATED CFB VIEWERSHIP: 📺🏈 2016-23 Total Nielsen-Rated Viewers Check this out, gang: 50% of football viewership comes from just 18 teams In updating TV data to add in this year, I continue to be amazed by how heavily concentrated viewers are among so few brands
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NCAA BASEBALL GAMES: ⚾️🧢 2023 Avg. Crowd Size They love baseball at a lot of colleges (especially in the @SEC!), so here's the avg. crowd size per team from last season: Who's your biggest surprise on this list? 😉 One interesting takeaway is the directly inverse relationship between having a local #MLB team and most college baseball crowd sizes. Baseball fans want to have fun at baseball games, and a lot of colleges are doing an amazing job filling that need with great facilities and fun games. (...and thanks to @NCAAStats for keeping track of all the data!)
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As a Michigan native + Michigan fan, it pains me to say this... ...but U-M conduct was egregious enough –and shows such a lack of institutional control or ethics– that all UM wins during this cheating era should be forfeited by @bigten (changed to losses, not simply "vacated")
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WHO ARE THE BLUEBLOODS? Lots of discussion on this lately, with the new rankings... Who do you put on the list? Here's my set for the blueblood list, who prob should be added, who's rocked the modern era, who's close, and who's definitely earned a spot on it, but are a bit dusty there in the back since WWII... ...as well as teams that have the history (let's get the present back in gear!).... and a few that I think have unlimited potential to catapult themselves into the future, if they play their cards right. Who would you guys move around? (P.S. Sorry the resolution came out goofy, but the logos are still easy to see)
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BIG TEN STADIUMS 🏟️ All at matching scale, sorted by size Is it 2024 yet?!? I'm excited for these road trips! Here are all 18 @bigten stadiums. It's fun to compare the impact that seats vs. bleachers makes in how big their overall footprints are when set to matching scale here:
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Replying to @ab00xx
The sky was also outed for identifying as blue yesterday, too...
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This is an unbelievable violent crime. Shilo Sanders had no business being allowed to play for a @pac12 team, has no business being allowed to play in the @Big12Conference and had no business being allowed to transfer in to @CUBoulder. What an absolute disgrace for all three.
Shilo Sanders beat a HS school security guard so badly that his neck was broken & he became permanently incontinent (details below). Sanders lost the lawsuit filed for that beating in 2016 and was ordered to pay $11.89 million in damages to his victim. Sanders made a bankruptcy filing in 2023 claiming that his entire net worth is around $300,000. Is that true or has he been given advice on how to protect his assets? In other words, how to hide his wealth. I’d laugh but what’s the point? If Deion’s program cracks up again this season he’s going to have to seriously start fighting off charges that he’s a conman.
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CHANGE IN ALL-SPORTS SUCCESS 🎓🏆 Pre-Covid vs. Post-Covid Eras Looking at how schools have fared in overall all-sports success in more recent years compared to pre-Covid years is quite interesting. Here are the 15 biggest gains vs. biggest losses in avg. Directors' Cup points:
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Who does the best job graduating football players? 🎓🏈 Here's the latest football Grad. Success Rate (GSR) data from the NCAA's FBS teams: (Note: GSR adjusts grad. rates to include any transfers in, as well as not penalize for transfers out who were in good academic standing)
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TOO MUCH ATHLETIC DEPARTMENT DEBT? (...and those without any!) The wise @KnightAthletics folks have been warning us for years about the crippling rise in debt held by major athletic depts, fueled by a wild arms race in facilities. Now, in fairness: There are often advantages to how cheaply public universities can borrow money (or issue tax-exempt bonds), but the rising amount of athletic debt is certainly a problem. DOUBLE CORNHUSKER HONOR ROLL: Give kudos to Nebraska: They are the ONLY public FBS athletic dept with NO subsidy from the school, and NO athletic debt. That's pretty impressive, Cornhusker friends! Also notable to me is how several Sun Belt teams may have very large subsidies, but aren't financing their growth with debt, which seems wise and is more flexible than racking up debt (Kennesaw State is close, too). (Note: Private schools and a few states do not report this data, so the below chart is limited to schools who report data) The Top 3: The 3 biggest athletic debtholders have all just built (or completely rebuilt) huge, lavish stadiums in major (and very expensive) West Coast cities. As for #1 on this chart: UC Berkeley recently had to rebuild their historic stadium, which is quite literally on topic of an earthquake fault directly underneath the field, and required seismic engineering and construction that dwarfs any normal project, thus the massive price tag and its huge debt bill. Memorial Stadium "moves" independently in different "pieces" during an earthquake... It's incredibly cool, but sure wasn't cheap to build there in San Francisco!
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MSU vs. OSU: 🤔🏈 Which is a better job? As a Spartan football kid, it's interesting to see all of this debate between MSU vs. Beavs fans on the two jobs I do like both schools and both teams... but, in honor of both my Dad + Duffy D, here's a quick comparison of the two teams:
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LET'S TALK ABOUT USC VS. UTAH: Tomorrow is the last @USC vs. @UUtah game for a while, and I'm actually going to miss our still-budding rivalry. 🏈 Over the past decade, @Utah_Football has understood what it meant to be a part of the #Pac12 in a way that many of the Pac's founders (ahem... you two in SF) have forgotten. Despite being the new kids on the block, they understood the spirit, energy, and legacy, and they flung their program in with a determination to win... which they did. 🎓 Utah Pres. Young was a brilliant and transformational leader who imagined everything that the U could be, and shepherded them to get there, most notably joining the @pac12 and the @AAUniversities (which would have seemed impossible just 20 years ago!) in partnership with #USC Presidents Sample + Nikias. I'm glad we have them in both. 🌹🌹 Seeing Utah fans fall in love with the Rose Bowl these past two years made me smile so much because they "got it" in a way that immediately took me back to my first time watching @uscfb in that magical New Year's Day spectacle. Getting to know so many fun, devoted, and awesome Utah fans has been a blast, both in real life and on here. 🏆 I would be happy to see this new rivalry continue for years to come, but we both have new adventures coming next year. When Utah goes into the Big 12, I will definitely be cheering for my Ute friends to win their conference, and I look forward to having them back in the Coliseum for future playoff showdowns. Until then, we get one more big game under the lights in L.A. tomorrow. I am sure it will be a great one! ✌️ Thank you to all of the #Utes for a decade of great games and #FIGHTON TROJANS! P.S. to the Utes... Let the silly fingernail obsession go... Rose Bowl teams are above the little stuff! 🤣
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HOW WOULD THE BEAVS + COUGS FIT INTO THE BIG 12? I don't know if the #Big12 will (or won't) end up being smart enough to make room for #WSU + #OSU, but these two outstanding land-grant schools would fit in better than many of their new teams, and would add a lot to their conf. Some quick data on why I've said for a long time that the two Pac schools who would've best fit in there the entire time would have been WSU + OSU: #GoBeavs #GoCougs
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New Surgeon General: Lady who talks about health on Fox News New Head of FDA: The dumbass who got so many people killed by Covid, arguing hard for herd immunity over vaccines New Head of CDC: Random (totally unqualified) Florida congressman Better stay healthy, gang... 🤦‍♂️
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MOST BASEBALL FANS ⚾️🎓 Check out the Top 25 biggest avg. college baseball crowds: "It just means more" in the #SEC, with 9 of the Top 10 In a data laugh, @HailStateBB + @LSUbaseball are TIED with a current avg. of exactly 10,808 each, so we'll have to see how the season ends!
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TV NETWORK FAVORITES: Most Games on Major Networks 2016-22 Who have networks wanted to air the most? In all the talk on which teams are the biggest brands with the biggest viewership, folks often forget how much bigger TV audiences naturally are on major networks than on cable channels (usually). Lots of factors go into those decisions (ranking, brand, tradition, and opponents are key among them), but it's interesting to see who the major networks choose to put on the air most often, and who they leave to the cable and streaming channels instead. The Big Ten's exciting new TV deal makes a lot of sense in this regard, and note that the four new #B1G teams and both new #SEC teams are all in the networks' Top 25 favorite teams list (...as is #Stanford, too... ahem)... and understand why Notre Dame's opinion and partnership matters so much to everyone else.
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HOW WILL UW+OU FIT INTO THE B1G? 📊 We've talked about this since 2022, but @UWAthletics and @GoDucks are both going to be great for the @bigten! Here are a few quick metrics comps on how they fit in terms of: — Academic rank — Research — Football history — All-Sports success
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WHAT NEXT FOR THE PAC-9 The steadfast silence of the past year looked inept to the public, but would have been fine if the #pac12 Presidents understood each other. They clearly didn't, so now urgent, serious, and immediate actions are necessary. If the Pac-9 schools are serious about wanting to succeed for the future, these are the 8 steps that they should take NOW, beginning with the first four done before Monday. None of them want to join the Big 12 (CU didn't either), but they need to take action now for the legacy of those who came before them at their schools, and those who will follow. In 1957, the Pacific Coast Conf completely dropped the ball by NOT expanding fast enough (despite desperate interest from new schools), or it would still be around today. The Pac-12 should not repeat its predecessor's failures, and begin by immediate expansion to replace CU. Colorado was the conference's worst football team and its smallest, worst-performing athletic dept. Their move is entirely manageable (and even improves the on-field product) if the rest of the Pac leaders move forward and quit dinking around. Here are the 8 steps I think the conference should take in the next two weeks to right the ship: One extra one, too: When teams play that awful CU team this year... Stop treating it like an extra bye week for the 2nd team. Run up the score instead.
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TV VIEWERSHIP COMPARISONS: We talk often about the reality that TV viewership is NOT driven by avid fans, but by random American viewers who want to see big, relevant games that matter🤷‍♂️ ...but who STILL gets watched when when their nationally irrelevant games DO NOT MATTER? 🤔 📡 Networks put big games with national relevance on major channels, and they bury the less relevant games elsewhere, where many random national viewers are unlikely to scour the bowels of their cable packages to find them. 📊 Basic stats analysis shows that 65% of viewership is predicted purely by the channel alone, and nearly 90% is predictable by by current + recent team ranking(s). Networks put big games with big (relevant) teams on major channels, where big national audiences (unrelated to their fanbases) watch the games. 🔎 For this reason, it's interesting to take a look at what teams STILL draw large viewership (and who does NOT!) when they are playing on more obscure channels. WHO DO FANS STILL SEEK OUT GAMES FROM when those games likely have no relevance on the national picture? 📺 Here's an interesting look (using data compiled by the awesome YouTuber Ryan from the "D1-360 Conf Realignment" channel, via SMW data), which takes an "apples to apples" look among the ACC, Pac-10, and Big 12 and how games between themselves (so NOT impacted by good or bad OOC games, etc.) compare on those secondary cable channels. ...it's especially telling for our Duck, Husky, Seminole, and Mountaineer friends!
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WHO HAS IVY LEAGUE-LEVEL FOOTBALL GRADUATION RATES? 🎓🏈 Led by #Clemson, congrats to the FBS teams who have graduation rates equal to (or better than) the Ivy League teams, which takes a tremendous academic commitment from their leaders and hard work from their athletes! 🫡
Who does the best job graduating football players? 🎓🏈 Here's the latest football Grad. Success Rate (GSR) data from the NCAA's FBS teams: (Note: GSR adjusts grad. rates to include any transfers in, as well as not penalize for transfers out who were in good academic standing)
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Replying to @bluebloodsbias @BFW
Did I miss something? Wasn't that team 1-8 in conference, and needed 2OT to been a bad G-5 team?
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PAYING BACK THEIR ATHLETIC PROFITS: Only 9 schools did... There are tons of ways to measure athletic dept. profitability, but one metric matters more than any other in the regular business world: Did you pay out profits or not? In the college sports world, only nine (public) schools met this threshold in FY 2022, and I think it's pretty impressive and worthy of a shout-out! These were the ONLY nine schools who actually reported transferring athletic profits BACK to their central campus coffers in the most recent @KnightAthletics data: Granted, there are a million ways to look at subsidies and transfer pricing charges flying in both directions of the accounting books, but the actual transfer & return of athletic profits from the athletic dept. back to central campus budgets is worth a salute to these nine schools and their well-run athletic departments!
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BREAKING NEWS.. MASSIVE HIGHER ED + SPORTS UPDATE... Huge congrats to the 6 new schools who were invited to join the AAU today: — Notre Dame — Arizona State — Miami — UC Riverside — South Florida — George Washington All of their staff, leaders, alums, and fans should be INCREDIBLY proud of these six fantastic institutions today! Congrats to all! This has utterly massive implications for future conference realignment (as we have often discussed), but for today I hope that all the communities from the new AAU members can celebrate this wonderful excitement.
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Auburn fans -and even key administrators!- got weirdly political and nasty to Cal fans this week... ...so the gleeful laughs flowing down the Berkeley hills to the Auburn plains after having beaten their asses is pretty darn funny! 🤣 I learned long ago: Don't mess with Oski!
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ADMISSIONS RATE: 🎓🧐 FY 2023 Freshman Class The Dept. of Education just released new admissions rate data for last year's entering class, and a lot of schools saw significant changes... How'd your beloved alma mater do? ...or your rivals?
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REALIGNMENT ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE A Quantitative Perspective 🏟️📊 We wanted to build a model that quantifies a wide range of key factors to look at realignment attractiveness of each current FBS school, and the results were quite interesting, and help explain a lot about the last three years. (Methodology is summarized in comment below) Now, any individual conference will have its own factors to consider (especially given its existing membership base and geography), and network partners similarly have other factors on how much they would invest in, but this shows a lot about (for example) how the additions to the #B1G, #SEC, #Big12, and #SEC stack up, and why they did what they did, even though their moves might not make sense to many at the time. Any School officials, clients, academic staff, or media with questions are free to reach out, and I’d be happy to set up time to walk you through your scores and key benchmarks!
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ELECTORAL VOTES: By Conference How Red or Blue was your conference last night? Here's a quick look (as of unofficial results while posting) at how each conference's footprints voted last night:
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Congrats to the Elite 8! We learned a lot last night about basketball success this year as we got down to the Elite 8: — The #ACC is a LOT stronger than many people think. — The #B1G and #SEC are just as strong as people think. — The #BigEast belongs with the big dogs. — Fans don't have to like it, but the wise Greg Sankey was right about having high caliber teams throughout the depths of the power confs. — The two confs who bragged the most about their hoops all year are nowhere to be found.
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STUDENT BODY DIVERSITY: 🎓 Minority Enrollment at Power Conf Members The sad events last week in Idaho remind me how important education can be as a tool for getting people to grow past hate, and the role that a diverse student body plays in that. Here are the student body breakdowns for the power conf. schools. Many are commendable... but a few need to do better. ❌ Please note, if you're secretly a racist asshole, this is probably not a good post for you to comment on... 😉
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PAC-10 TV VIEWERS BY CHANNEL: Regular season games excluding USC+UCLA 2016-22 In all the talk about Pac-9 teams, media values, and attractiveness, I thought we should revisit this data again on who attracts viewers... and who doesn't (Remember: viewers are driven by relevancy)
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TOP 15 BEST AG SCHOOLS: 🌽 One crucial metric that we often don't give enough attention to is the key role of ag schools + ag research, which is done at some of the best schools (and best football and basketball schools!) in the country. Here's US News' Top 15 for Ag Sciences:
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BIGGEST CHANGE IN FOOTBALL FANS A-5 Confs 🏟️📣 2016-18 Avg. vs. 2022-23 Avg. Where are football crowds growing the most in recent years? #Kansas, #Purdue, #Pitt, + #Rutgers Where are they shrinking the most? #UCLA, #Northwestern, #Miami, + #Stanford Check out the Top 15s:
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My Personal, (perhaps?) Unpopular Hot Take: If the #SEC is going to expand beyond the states of North Carolina and Virginia, a key school to consider is West Virginia State flagship, great sports, rabid fans, owns the state, strong TV draw, rich history, great tradition at #WVU
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BASKETBALL SCHOOLS: Who has the biggest hoops budgets? Basketball financial data is fun because it's not just the "usual suspects" who pour the most resources & devotion into their team Here are last year's Top 20 MBB spenders, together with conf. avgs. Any favorite surprises?
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THE "B" IN "B1G" STANDS FOR "BILLIONS" When the @BigTen added USC+UCLA, OSU Pres. Johnson talked about her vision of the Big Ten leading the world not just in sports, but also in sciences If the current expansion discussions pan out, the new Big Ten will be surreally unmatched:
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With all the stadium talk, people forget how ENORMOUS the LA Coliseum actually is, because it has 100% big chair seats, with no tiny bleachers When putting at scale, even the biggest stadiums in the country fit fully inside @lacoliseum Ha... Note how far those back rows are!
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UCLA is officially a member of the Big Ten... ...the issue is done.
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BASEBALL & SOFTBALL: ⚾️🥎💰🏟️ BIGGEST BUDGETS + ATTENDANCE 1 of 2 ⚾️ - Per Dept. of Education + NCAA With all the focus on the 64 teams making the NCAA's Baseball + Softball tournaments, here's a look at which 64 teams invest the most in each sport, and how many fans they draw:
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WHY D-III SPORTS MATTER: 🎓🏈 Spoiler Alert: It's more than Sports As colleges face the huge demographic cliff that's coming, D-III sports are going to become even more important. Many D-III FB schools are in a tough spot, and recruited athletes will be a incredibly important source of securing much-needed students. Many schools already use sports to meet their enrollment goals. and it will become crucial over the next decade. What's great about D-III sports, though, is that they not only do all of the wonderful things that sports can "do" for student life, alumni engagement, retention, branding, etc., but they do it profitably. Every single "normal" D-III football team comes out ahead financially for the school, a claim that not even every FBS team can make! Below tries to show that with numbers from their latest financial disclosures, and I thought you guys would find it interesting to see:
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REALIGNED TOTAL AP POINTS: Should we call the "Pac-2" a "Power 4" conference? I know it's all the rage right now to make jokes about the "Mid 12," but their on-field situation speaks for itself, meanwhile OSU+WSU continue to look great this season! XII really should add OSU+WSU
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ROSE BOWL CHAMPIONS: All teams with more than one Rose Bowl win Lots of fun talk on the timeline today about the Rose Bowl, so here is every team who's ever won more than one @rosebowlgame: There's no more enchanting and magical experience in all of sports than the Rose Bowl!
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TWO ROADS DIVERGED IN KANSAS... One of the most interesting trends I've noticed in new data is the split directions of the Kansas schools. #KU has gone back to growing its enrollment, and the #Jayhawks reported the biggest athletic budget in the Big 12 (even before counting their CapEx / stadium project) in FY24. Meanwhile, #KSU continues to see falling enrollment, and now has the smallest operating budget in the #Big12. While both have had success on the field/court, it will be interesting to see if they continue trending in opposite directions, especially with the ramp-up in spending and investments related to the House v. NCAA settlement.
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CROWD SIZE: FOOTBALL vs. BASKETBALL 🏈 🆚 🏀 Check out how this season's football crowds compare to YTD basketball crowds: It's interesting to see how some schools stand out (especially the "Big 3:" #B1G, #SEC, + #ACC), but also how many are closely clustered together in both.
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TV IMPACT OF ACC LOSING FSU, CLEMSON AND ND: A rough day for ACC fans today, with #Clemson suing to get out, along with #FSU. I don't know what will happen in court, but the more home cookin' local judges involved, the worse it looks for the ACC, regardless of legal precedent or case merit. (Trust me... ask the Pac-10 fans) I continue to believe that #NotreDame is the key "Jenga block" holding @theACC's tower from crashing, but also they have the easiest (and cheapest) exit path of anybody, should they choose to pull the ripcord. If ND also leaves, here would be the impact on the ACC's viewers and relevant games big enough for major TV networks: It ain't good, folks... ACC fans better hope this whole mess ends up in federal court for many years to come.
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UPDATED SPORTS FINANCIALS: Now that we have updated reporting from ALL schools, here's some interesting looks at: - Overall OpEx - Size of Depts - Spend on Olympic Sports (not FB or MBB) - Overall Spend per Athlete Note how the schools rebuilding to elite status stand out, along with the SEC, and how schools with a more participative focus look quite different, as do the schools that want to compete everywhere in everything. We'll dig into more later, but it's why I love the idea of a hybrid model that captures more of the best of both, along with upgrading club teams to "virtual varsity," which can be lavishly done at 5¢ per varsity $1.
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MEN'S LACROSSE: 🥍 Budgets + Avg. Attendance I'm fascinated by how #Lacrosse is growing so fast, and I think there is a lot of potential for it on campuses, either as a @NCAALAX varsity program or a @MCLA club team. As FYI, here's the latest budget + current attendance data for the biggest D-I programs. (Note that this appropriately includes the $ value of student aid that Ivy teams cover on a need-based level out of central campus coffers, rather than from Athletic Dept. funds for 12.6 total students. Don't whine about it, pls.) I'll be interested to see if fan numbers rise in coming years, especially at schools who aren't as big on football and baseball!
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A PERFECT MATCH: Pac-2 + CW Network In seeking a home for their games, #Wazzu + the #Beavs probably couldn't have done better than the #CW for their #Pac2 home games, and I'm excited for them. @TheCW has massive distribution, and its new football lineup viewership was on par with long-established cable competitors, despite having some of the least desirable #ACC games. This will put fun @pac12 games in practically all American homes, much like their old long ago USA Network deal that I used to love in the Pac-10 era. Great job to #Pac12 Commish @TKGould on doing with Kliavkoff couldn't: Getting West Coast games a TV contract to air in homes nationwide!
Oregon State and Washington State are wrapping up the deal for their 2024 home football games. Exposure was the focus. And it appears they got it. Read: bit.ly/49bhi3Q
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🚨 BIG NEWS: 🎓 2024 U.S. News rankings just came out ...and there have been lots of changes in the most popular college ranking! What's your biggest surprise? I usually prefer to average multiple rankings in my data, but fascinating to see how great some of these schools are
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HOW DOES FSU FIT INTO B1G RANKINGS? 🎓 With no doubt on how well FSU fits athletically into the #B1G, here's a quick look how they compare across a diverse mix of 7 key academic rankings, too. I put in the full #B1G - including affiliates - so that you guys can comparatively see ND, as well. For folks who haven't studied college success recently, you'll be impressed with the @Seminoles' academic ascendancy. (Note: I didn't do the SEC, since FSU's relationship with ESPN looks about as frosty today as Edward Snowden's relationship is with the NSA... but I can update if that changes...) 😜
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UPDATED LOOK AT EST. AVG. MEDIA RIGHTS VALUE: With the ACC settling things down for a bit, here's a quick update on how confs compare with media rights values from now into the early 2030s The sidebar breaks down why the ACC number often confuses folks, and has the latest estimates of their breakdowns from Tomahawk Nation + ACCFootballRX. Pac + MWC are still sorting out their new contracts, so theirs are estimates (per various media reports). MAC + SBC aren't forgotten, but parts of their deals make for a suboptimal comparison, so they're not on here (since focus is on ACC).
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CONGRATS to all of my Stanford, Cal, and SMU friends! This is an exciting day for all! CONGRATS to my ACC friends! You have wisely solidified the future of the conference, and firmed up its role as an elite leader of the athletic and academic world! Today is a great day! 🥰
Sources: ACC Presidents and Chancellors have voted this morning to extend invitations to Stanford, California and SMU to push the league to 18 teams.
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FOOTBALL GAMEDAY REVENUE: 🏟️💵 How much does an Athletic Dept. receive from tickets and stadium revenue? In looking at the latest available data, it's surprising how little value many schools are capturing from football games, and I think this is one of the most important charts I've shared. Below shows how much of the avg. total value at each football game from tickets + concessions + programs + souvenirs + parking at home CFB games goes to the athletic dept. For some of them, it's not much, and needs to get higher. Many schools make a lot less per game than people would think, and suboptimal accounting allocation decisions by school CFOs, Comptrollers, and CSOs may need to change. More Athletic Depts. should benefit from the parking, concessions, facility $, bookstore merch, etc. that their football team is responsible for. There are historical reasons of Athletic Dept. largesse and departmental noblesse oblige towards other auxiliary services depts. that should be reevaluated. Interestingly enough, I was part of a similar change in accounting strategy to recapture lost value at CIA many years ago, and it's hard for the peripheral depts., but these things need to change to better support the Athletic Dept. to capture and benefit from its value. If any of the ADs or school leaders reading this want to chat about how to better capture the revenue you're giving away outside the Athletic Dept., shoot me a DM or email anytime, and let's chat! Now, every school has its own peculiarities and eccentricity to their accounting, but these important benchmarks are what they are. A big thanks to the great folks from @Sportico, @CFB_Data, and @KnightAthletics for the data they publish that let us see these benchmarks! PLEASE NOTE: Source data and methodology issues are broken down in the sourcing footnote. For example, some schools may receive $0 from student tickets (as it arguably should be!), thus appropriately impacting averages, and away games have some small impact, but that's part of the reality of the financial picture. FANS: Please do NOT whine in the comments (for real, please don't!) about why your favorite team's number is lower than rivals, but instead focus on how you can better support the Athletic Dept. by getting their numbers up. This data is ONLY available for the public schools shown, but I'm happy to work with any private schools to help benchmark your internal data, if you have it and want to share!
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WHAT ARE THE MOST POPULAR COLLEGES FOR KIDS TO APPLY TO? 🎓 Here's brand new data from the Dept. of Ed. on what the most popular colleges were for students applying last year: P.S. Anybody who comments with a cringey excuse for why their favorite school is less popular than others is only getting coal from Santa Claus next week... 😜🎅
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LACROSSE vs. BASEBALL FANS 🥍⚾️ 2024 at Top Lax Schools Here's a fascinating look at crowds for Men's Lacrosse vs. Baseball at the biggest lax schools: Check out the differences at a few of them, and how both thrive at a few more, like #UVA, #UNC, #Utah, + #PSU Any surprises?
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FOOTBALL REVENUE PER FAN 🏟️💰 2022 Season, per Sportico + NCAA data With new data recently released, we can now see the FY2023 in-stadium football revenue per fan attendee, and it's remarkable to see how much it varied by school: (More details + context in the source notes) ⤵️
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To be clear, THIS is the flag that needs to be flying over our campuses Its history isn't perfect, but it stands for trying harder every day to bring our ideals of freedom, peace, prosperity, equal rights, & safety from tyranny for all Let's see IT more... and a few others less
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I warned you, ACC fans, that the State of Florida fights dirty, and that you should have worked out a settlement with FSU... It's going to keep getting uglier.
Good morning. @AGAshleyMoody this morning has filed a lawsuit against the ACC. The Fla. attorney general is asking a judge to force the ACC to turn over media rights contracts that are at the center of an ongoing legal dispute between the ACC and Florida State University.
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Huh? Cal just dropped a school-wide rebrand that simply refers to the school name as "Berkeley," including using a big "B" instead of their famous and historical "C." That's... a choice. I expect sports won't follow it, which is... another choice.
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LATEST ATHLETIC DEPT. BUDGETS 💵 We're still waiting for the full data downloads from the Dept of Ed, but we can now fill in the private school gaps for a better picture on FY23 finances Many increases, and much normalization, but the next two years will flip it all on its head
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BASKETBALL CROWD SIZE: 🏀🎉 Current Season YTD How's your basketball team doing so far this year? As we kick into the heart of the season, here's an update on crowd sizes so far this season. Below is current MBB attendance, grouped in forward-aligned confs: Any big surprises?
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CONFERENCE ACADEMICS 🎓🏆 2026 US News Rankings Check out how the schools and conferences compare in the new US News ranks: Realignment has made a lot of changes, and a lot of schools have been working hard to move up
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The time for statements has long since passed by. It's time for ACTIONS, not "statements" (Also: Time for a new Executive Committee, Commissioner, and PR team who would know this)
Statement from the Pac-12 Conference:
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IF MSU can play a game on an aircraft carrier... And the #Big12 can claim they "might" play in Mexico... Then there's only one place now for @VillanovaU to host an epic @NovaMBB game! Make it happen, @BIGEAST ! (I bet we could even get the famed @coleadamss there in person!)
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USC vs. ND: A RIVALRY WE NEED TO PROTECT There's really nothing like the unique, century-old national rivalry between #USC & #NotreDame, we must preserve it, even if it's hard. Think about what it takes for games big enough to be the focus of obsessive Hemmingway characters, and to credibly distract the "Die Hard" characters: 🏆 15 Heismans: #1 + #2 🏆 22 National Titles: #3 (tied) 🏆 1072 Draft Picks: #1 + #2 🏆 194 All-Americans: #1 + #5 These are the best two private school football programs in the sport (nobody else is even close), and this rivalry was built on a foundation of deep respect that is rare. Fans are more engaged with each other than other rivalries, and it feels like the rest of the world goes on pause once the ball kicks off. Uniquely, these two fledgling schools were both built off more 19th century chutzpah than bricks in their early days, and both quickly rose to to be truly great institutions, AAU members, and to exceed their founders wildest dreams... and they unabashedly used football -- and each other -- to help make that happen. We both have our natural rivals (UCLA, BC), and the local rivals really fueled by too a bit more hate than we like to admit, and aren't even playing much anymore (Mich/Pur, Cal/Stan... both of whom the OTHER one now plays, ironically enough), but this showdown, whose history book is called "The Glamour Game" stands alone every year. No matter how much of a pain it is for scheduling, we owe to both our grandparents and to our grandchildren to keep the rivalry alive. I grew up thinking I wanted to go to Notre Dame, and then fell in love with USC. One of the things that made USC palatable for my Dad (who played for MSU, and was a G.A. coach for their legendary 10-10 tie vs. Ara P's best Irish team) was that I would always be on the other side of Notre Dame... (He hated every minute of that South Bend college visit... LOL) Fight On Trojans, and sending a salute to all of my Irish Friends. Let's keep this rolling for future generations. ✌️🍀🏈
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MEMPHIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE BIG 12: I've been saying this for 2 years, but after some fun calls last week going through data with the guys from @memBig12, I'm more convinced than ever that UM would be a smart addition for the #Big12, and worth any strategic investment needed:
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BEST FOOTBALL SCHOOLS: 🎓🏈 Football Success vs. Academic Rank What are the best schools who have the best football teams? Just for fun, here's a comparison of sustained football success with sustained academic success:
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If the Pac-12 has screwed this up badly enough to make CU leadership change their mind on moving (which they did NOT want to do), the Pac-12 CEOs should replace their commissioner immediately, as well as the Executive Committee, also immediately
Sources: Colorado is in discussions about a move to the Big 12, and the school has just completed a board meeting and scheduled another for tomorrow to discuss the move. The Big 12 is also holding a presidents meeting tonight where there's expected to be an expansion update.
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This is too funny: #SEC and #BigTen games are blacked out... but no issues with the #ACC Network... and both #Wazzu & the #Beavs have such wide distribution hat every US TV gets their games, even with rabbit ear antennas? LOL.. We could cut the irony with a knife 🤣🤣
🚨 Attention @SEC fans: If you are a @DirecTV customer, you no longer have access to SEC games and coverage on @espn or @SECNetwork. As negotiations continue in an effort to restore ESPN programming to DirectTV, be reminded that other major TV and streaming providers like @dish, @sling, @hulu, @YouTubeTV, and others carry @espn and @SECNetwork.
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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LEADERS WHO KILLED THE PAC-12? 🤔 Half of the CEOs at the helm of the #Pac12's collapse are out of a job this year (or may be by day's end?)... so what happened to them? Here's a quick refresher on each of their: - Roles in the Pac's collapse - What happened to them - How they're seen by their own faithful What's wild is that this is how similar this is to the 1957 collapse of the old Pacific Coast Conf, where only 2 of the 9 PCC Presidents survived into the new @pac12's 1959 creation.
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Unlike the Pac-12, the ACC ain't messin' around... They silently sued FSU first... This may get interesting!
#BREAKING: The Atlantic Coast Conference has filed a lawsuit against the Board of Trustees that was filed yesterday in Mecklenburg County. On page four, the ACC claims that “Florida State matters regarding the ACC are subject to the jurisdiction of the state of North Carolina.”
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Replying to @amyklobuchar
Amazing and savage... @amyklobuchar and her comms team just won the internet. 🤣🫡
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BEST BASKETBALL CONFERENCES No. of Sweet 16 Teams 🏆🏀 No surprise for history fans, but @theACC and the @BIGEAST have put the most teams into the #Sweet16 this year, with 4 from the #ACC and 3 from the #BigEast Now we'll see who makes it on to the #FinalFour...
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FBS ENROLLMENT GROWTH: 2009-22 Part of the recent arms race in sports spending and facilities at many schools has been fueled with subsidies... which have been largely absorbed via growing enrollment I'm concerned at how schools with declining enrollments will endure continued spending pressures, especially with the coming student enrollment cliff, which will badly hurt lower academic rungs (but may better justify the marketing benefits of bigtime sports)
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WHICH WAS DUMBER? 💥🤔 World War I's start or the Pac-12's collapse? Reading a great essay on World War I made my history dork self wonder which was dumber? The chaos that launched WWI or the chaos that killed the #Pac12? For your Thanksgiving reading laughs, here's a humorous comparison of which Pac schools feel most similar to which WWI countries... Feel free to chime in your own funny comparisons below! 🤣
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FAREWELL TO THE WAC... 🫡 Yesterday was sad for all of us who grew up watching wild @WACsports games late at night as kids, as the end of the conf was announced 🥹 Here's a look at how the UAC dissolution/merger will work out, as well as a look back on its rich past & alumni...
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Replying to @RedditCFB
That would be the WORST result, allowing the committee to just make it: - Bama - OSU - TCU anyways - SEC flavor of the week
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SCHOOL SIZE vs. FAN SIZE 🎓🏈🏟️ Do bigger schools have bigger crowds? ...not always! Here's an interesting look — suggested by a Clemson friend — at the relationship between school size and football crowd size, and who outperforms (and who underperforms) the advantages of a big base of students and alumni Any surprises? (Note that we used on-campus enrollment, so remote, online-only students aren't included)
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MOST POPULAR U.S. COLLEGES: 🎓 Total No. of Applications As HS seniors (& parents) begin to fret about next year, here's a quick reminder of the Top 35 most popular colleges that U.S. students apply to, disproportionately with forward-aligned #BigTen, #BigWest, #ACC, and #IvyLeague schools, especially from @UofCalifornia:
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Once again: Nobody is going from the Pac to the Big 12, and they never were Every single school is on record, and the below should be utterly humiliating for CBS & Endeavor, where #Big12Karen keeps lying to the public Kudos to Utah and Pac leaders for repeating it: No means no!
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A New Football TV World: 🏈📺 B1G/SEC/ND/FSU vs. ACC/XII/Pac-2 TV Viewers 2016-23 The significance of what happened yesterday with the #B1G + #SEC cannot be understated. With FSU on its way out and ND standing alone, take a look at how intra-conf group viewers compare between the two groups: Now, this illustrative view is inherently limited by games played (for example, boosting ND+FSU a bit due to a much smaller sample size), but it clearly makes the point of the bifurcation that we will see growing, especially with the new TV deals. Note to Whiners: If you're tempted to whine with excuses about the calculation process... don't... because you've missed the point entirely and you won't like what the future is bringing.
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WHO DO NETWORKS AIR THE MOST? 📺🏈 2016-22 Reg. Season Games The most valuable slots for TV networks are games on the major networks: ABC, CBS, NBC, + Fox... so who do the networks put in their key slots vs. whose games are relegated to cable, with typically smaller viewership?
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I don't know if the rumors are true or not, but fingers are crossed!
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Live images tonight from the Pac-12 Embassy in Saigon...
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WHO COULD MAKE A HYPOTHETICAL #3 CONFERENCE? All right, gang... Let's have a fun (but friendly!) Friday debate: If you had to consider ALL the factors, who would you put in a hypothetical #3 conf to rival the #SEC + #BigTen? Here's my draft list: Who's on yours? 😜 (I'm assuming that FSU is already going elsewhere and that ND is doing their own ND thing, since they'd obviously be atop any reasonable list)
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Illustrative Example: 🤔💡 WHAT MIGHT PROMOTION & RELEGATION LOOK LIKE IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL? There is a lot of talk right now on what a European-style promotion & relegation model could look like, led by the Pac-2 + MWC, so here's an illustrative example of the last three seasons if they also included the AAC + Indies: I think it's pretty cool, would make for some great and exciting games, and be worth giving a try! (Note: Obviously, the actual promote/relegate status would be based on actual games (which weren't played), so this illustrative example uses SP+ to rank teams, with 2023 season only through this week for example purposes only. In this example, the top 2 teams in each group are promoted up, and the bottom 2 are relegated down.)
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CONGRATS TO TEXAS STATE! All of us who grew up cheering for the @pac12 look forward to seeing @txst write exciting new chapters in the history of the #ConferenceOfChampions Welcome aboard @kdamp + @TxStateBobcats! (But good luck in Corvallis at night... haha... it's cursed!)
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HOW DOES FSU FIT? 🤔🏆 1/2: Athletic Factors As #FSU searches for a new conf, here's how they fit both athletically + institutionally into the "Power 4" confs You can see they fit well into the #B1G + #SEC, and are better at sports + a higher-ranked school than anybody in #XII
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The Big XII ref whose awful calls blew Utah's BYU game is an ex-Pac ref JomBoy used their lipreading skills on Utah AD Harlan's on-field ref fury, and believe they flagged him after yelling: "That's why we fired you from the Pac-12!" Worth the flag + fine every time, Mark! 🤣
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MOST UNSOLD FOOTBALL SEATS 🏟️ 2023 Season: Top 25 D-I Teams Which fanbase left the most empty seats unfilled? They each have a different story or a reason, but I hope they can all see more fans turn out next year Here were the Top 25 most empty seats in D-I stadiums last year:
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GROWING BASEBALL FANS: ⚾️🏟️ 2013-23 Growth in Avg. Crowd Size As college baseball grows in popularity at its powerhouse programs, who is growing the most in fans? Check out which programs have grown their avg. crowds the most, led by 11 #SEC teams, along with #OKState, #USM, #ECU, #Nebraska and more: Any surprises?
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HOW DO YOU DO ON THE BIGGEST STAGES? 2002-24 Games With BOTH Teams Ranked When the eyes of the country are on your team, how do you do against other ranked teams in big showdown games? #Bama leads the Top 5, with #OSU, #OU, #UGA, + #USC Note that #Wazzu + #BSU are both Top 15
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WHO COULD MAKE A "NEW" PAC? It is looking more & more like WSU+OSU will just integrate themselves into either the MWC or AAC (possibly under the Pac brand), but if they could put together an "All-Star Team" to build a new #5 conf, here's who I'd bring into a great new conf: (Credit to the great @therealtmac13 + @Mmarion8 for helping craft the best list)
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GREAT STADIUM ADDITION: One thing that's not being talked about enough is the really cool way that @TexasTech is actually using the architecture of their campus to add character, continuity, and functionality into their big stadium addition. It's going to look really cool...
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Replying to @PeteThamel
LOL... What about the games he already missed for <checks notes> a different cheating scandal? ...which he also did.
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What happened the LAST TIME Oregon State was left out of a conference? 🤔🦫 OSU is resilient, and – just like they found a way to succeed back then – they will find a way to succeed now. Let's call out and salute the Beavs' impressive success from realignment history after the PCC. Below breaks down what happened last time OSU was in the same circumstance, and they came out of it with great success. Not even #OSU's lawyers know the school's conference realignment history (sad, but true... they actually said false things about OSU's history in court filings, funny enough!), but here's how OSU handled the #PCC's 1958 collapse, which was almost identical to the #Pac12's 2023 collapse.
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🚨 REALIGNMENT FIT: B1G vs. SEC for UNC, UVA, FSU, CU, UM With @PeteThamel calling out ACC schools as #B1G/#SEC targets, here's a quick look at how the ACC's big five fit with them in terms of: 🎓 Institutional Fit / Rank 🏈 Long-Term Football Success 🏀 Long-Term Hoops Success
ESPN’s Pete Thamel says expansion candidate rankings are: 1) North Carolina 2) Virginia 3/4) Florida State/Clemson (in some order) “People at Florida State and Clemson don’t like to hear this.” Right at 32:00: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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SHOULD NOTRE DAME + FLORIDA STATE JOIN THE BIG TEN? The rumor mills about #FSU and #ND are swirling. I don't pretend to know what exactly they will do, but they certainly both fit into the #B1G, and would be great additions. I also think that might help stabilize much of the uncertainty right now, because nobody else would seem to be close in accretive value. Here's a look at how they compare in football, athletics overall, and the university itself (including the other affiliates... after all, ND is already an affiliate member of the Big Ten in hockey!)
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