$100 billion of altcoin VC money pumping false "better than Bitcoin" narratives made "crypto" the top-of-funnel for new people getting into Bitcoin from 2017 through 2023. That battle is over, thanks to a spate of massive crypto scams and collapses, followed by the 2024 launch of the ETFs. Now, as in the early days, most new people come straight to Bitcoin without needing to slog through crypto, as non-Bitcoin altcoins are firmly segregated into a different bucket by the industry, investors, the media, regulators, and legislators. With crypto in the rearview, Bitcoin's biggest battle is well underway. What do you think it is?

The post in the quoted tweet was from when Bitcoin was trading at ~$27,000, before our run to 100k+. At the time, many were adamant that due to the "4 year halving cycle" we would not see new all time highs (65k+) until AFTER the halving in April of '24. The consensus at the time was that we should expect chop/sideways action until the halving, and then a post-halving run up to new all time highs after (like "every time before"). At the time I was confident we would see new all time highs SOONER than most were expecting, that the "5th wave" to 100k+ would occur BEFORE the halving, not after. Part of the reason for this was market structure based, but I also noted that LTHS (long term holder supply) had reached record levels at 70+%, and I explained why this would lead to a price rise higher and faster than most were expecting. Fast forward a few months and the aggressive/impulsive rise was well under way leading to new all time highs BEFORE the halving leaving many in disbelief during the rise along the way. Today, LTHS has hit NEW record highs, with 16.6M Bitcoin being HODL'd, accounting for nearly ~80% of total supply. If we consider that around 1M Bitcoin have yet to be mined, this 16.6M figure amounts to around ~83% of all circulating Bitcoin. Again, the HIGHEST recorded amount of Bitcoin being HODL'd in history. This is very similar to the situation that we had at 27k- panic sellers had dumped all they could from the prior highs at 65k, forced sellers sold all that they could, a new cohort of buyers accumulated all that dumped Bitcoin, and Bitcoin supply became the most constrained it had ever been before. This meant that when buyers did finally actively step in, we shot back up to prior ATH much faster than most were expecting. There is no doubt in my mind that we are preparing for something similar now. This does not mean we can't go lower, theoretically if we were to get another LUNA/3AC situation where a portion of these HODL'ers become forced sellers more supply could technically come onto the market- but this would be an exception to the rule (HODL'ers typically sell into price rises, not dips) not something we would expect is most probable but rather least likely. And even if this were to occur- it would only just delay the inevitable rise, the same way our breakdown from 30k in 2022 due to forced selling from LUNA/3AC/FTX did not derail (but only delayed) the rise to 100k+. Ultimately, a secular (think 5-10 year) bear market does not occur when 80% of supply is being diamond-handed. It occurs when long term HODL'ers have sold much of their supply to short term speculators (typically as price goes parabolic) who panic sell (rather than buy) to other "weak hands" as price collapses in on itself- leading to a long, drawn out "death spiral" after which point long term holders once again step in at a deep discount to absorb all the supply they sold much, much higher. In other words, odds are that a bottom is closer than most think, and barring a black swan event that forces the hands of some HODL'ers, price will recover faster from this point than most are expecting- just like we saw in '23/'24 when conditions were similar. $BTC

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