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Crypto's 100x leverage isn't a feature for traders. It's a revenue model for exchanges. And it's fueling every major crash that retailers blame on market manipulation... Leverage and volatility don't add together. They multiply. Crypto already moves 10% in an hour on a quiet day. Stack 100x on top of that and a routine 2% swing wipes your entire position. You're not trading the asset anymore. You're trading whether you get stopped out before the next guy does. And when you get stopped out, the damage doesn't stay in your account. Forced liquidations push price down. Which triggers more liquidations. Which pushes price down further. Those violent red candles everyone blames on whales and manipulation? A lot of them are just leveraged retail getting flushed in a chain reaction. The volatility people hate most about crypto is being manufactured by the products crypto exchanges are selling. Now look at who profits from the carnage: Exchanges collect funding rates and liquidation fees every single time. It doesn't matter which direction price moves. The house wins on the way up. The house wins on the way down. High max leverage isn't a feature built for traders. It's a business model built on how often traders blow up. US stocks cap retail leverage at roughly 2x. US forex caps it at 50:1. EU forex caps it at 30:1. Crypto offers 100x to 125x on the most volatile asset class retail can legally touch. Every regulator in every jurisdiction sees that number. And they use it every single time they want to make the case that crypto needs to be shut down or severely restricted. The industry is handing them the argument. Repeatedly. For free. This is the conflict nobody wants to say out loud. Exchanges have a direct financial incentive to keep leverage high. More leverage means more liquidations. More liquidations means more fees. The product that's most profitable for the exchange is the one most likely to wipe out the user. That's not a bug in the system. That's the system.
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South Korea's stock market just had its worst single day in 30 years. The KOSPI crashed 9.99% in one session. A 20-minute circuit breaker. $8.5 billion in smart money fleeing. And retail investors bought every share they were dumping. Here's what actually happened: June 23, 2026. The KOSPI closed Monday at an all-time high of 9,114.55. A year ago it was around 3,000. The Korean market tripled in 12 months on a single trade. AI chips. Samsung and SK Hynix together make up roughly half of the entire KOSPI. Then Tuesday happened. Samsung dropped 12.3%. SK Hynix dropped 12.5%. The KOSPI fell 910 points to close at 8,203.84. Down 9.99%, the fifth largest single day drop since 1996. Now here's the part the headlines missed. Foreign investors and Korean institutions combined to net sell roughly $8.5 billion of stock on Tuesday. On the other side of every sell order was a Korean retail investor. Retail net bought a record 11.55 trillion won. $7.16 billion in a single day. The largest day of retail net buying in Korean stock market history. How were they funding it? Margin loans. Four days before the crash, Korean retail margin debt hit an all-time record of 38.48 trillion won. Investors were taking personal loans, borrowing against insurance policies, and pledging stocks to buy more stocks. Regulators had also approved 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs on Samsung and SK Hynix one month before the crash. So retail loaded into 2x products on the two stocks that just fell 12% in a session. Wednesday the KOSPI bounced. Retail bought even more. Institutions kept selling. The leverage didn't go anywhere. Korean retail is now holding the most leveraged position in market history at the highest valuation in market history with the smart money already gone. That isn't a victory. It is a setup. The crash itself isn't what wipes retail out. The leverage going into the crash is. Institutions sell on days like Tuesday because the rules in their system told them to. Retail runs on conviction, FOMO, and borrowed money chasing a story that "still works." Being right about AI in 2030 doesn't matter if you get margin called in 2026. That's what Surmount was built for. Rules-based strategies that hold their size at the top and don't get shaken out at the bottom. When the next Black Tuesday hits, your system has already decided what to do...
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Surmount retweeted
Replying to @SurmountInvest
Better just to send money directly to the people from the Treasury. So long as the increase in goods & services exceeds the increase in the money supply, which will be the case with AI & robots, there will not be inflation. In fact, my prediction is that we will desperately be fighting deflation!
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Five companies just committed $452 BILLION to a single bet this year. And the people who built that bet just started walking out the door... Every fund manager on earth is loaded into the same handful of AI stocks. The thesis was simple. The hyperscalers spend whatever it takes. AI revenue catches up. Everyone wins. That bet got bigger every quarter for three years. In 2022, Alphabet spent $31 billion on capital expenditures. In 2025, $91 billion. In 2026, between $180 and $190 billion. Six times what they spent four years ago. Across the five hyperscalers, combined 2026 capex is $452 billion. Almost half a trillion dollars in a single year from just five companies. Every dollar built on the same assumption. That AI revenue scales fast enough to justify the spend. This week, that assumption cracked. Alphabet's Q1 free cash flow: down 47% year-over-year. Full-year 2026 FCF projection: down 72% from 2025. The CFO told analysts that 2027 capex would "significantly increase" beyond 2026 levels. No guided year when the spending normalizes. No guided year when cash flow recovers. Then the talent started leaving. June 18. Noam Shazeer leaves Google for OpenAI. Shazeer co-authored the 2017 paper that introduced the transformer architecture. The foundation every modern AI model is built on. Google paid $2.7 billion in 2024 to bring him back from his last startup. Less than two years later, he's gone. June 19. John Jumper leaves Google DeepMind for Anthropic. Jumper shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for AlphaFold. The system used by 2 million researchers across 190 countries. Two of the most important AI scientists alive. Both gone in 48 hours, both walking into Google's biggest competitors. Now read this slowly. Google is spending $190 billion this year to win a race the architects of that race just bet against. Monday, the market did the math. Alphabet dropped 7.2% intraday. Worst single day since February. $269 billion in market cap. Gone in one session. The contagion spread. Amazon down 4%. Meta down 4%. Oracle down. Palantir down 4%. By Tuesday morning, the entire AI complex was bleeding. Here's the part nobody on financial TV will tell you. While retail was panic-selling the dip, smart money was already positioned for what comes next. Anthropic filed IPO paperwork at close to a trillion-dollar valuation. OpenAI is targeting a Q4 IPO above a trillion. Both companies just absorbed the talent walking out of Google. The trade isn't dying. It's rotating. Money is flowing from the incumbents that built the AI buildout to the challengers that are taking it from them. Retail won't catch this rotation. Retail never does. Buy the dip on names they already own. Load up at the consensus peak. Panic out when one earnings call changes the story. Same cycle every time. The investors who came through Monday intact weren't reading the news faster. Their strategy was already running before the news hit. A system doesn't flinch when the narrative does. It just keeps executing the rules it was built on, rebalancing and rotating while everyone else is still reacting. That's the difference between owning a story and owning a strategy.
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BREAKING: JD Vance just admitted the White House plan is to take ownership of every major AI company in America. This is the largest reshaping of American capitalism since the New Deal. And almost no one in finance is talking about it yet. Here's why this is a much bigger story than it sounds: Vance didn't pull this idea out of nowhere. He said it on the latest "The Diary of a CEO" this week: "The president is supportive of the United States owning these big AI companies. He likes the idea as sort of a sovereign wealth fund idea of the United States taking some stake in these AI companies." Read that again. The Vice President of the United States confirmed the administration wants equity in OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. Not regulate them. Not tax them. Own them. It gets crazier. The host pointed out that Bernie Sanders wants the public to own 50% of AI companies. Vance's response: "He likes that idea. I don't know that he would say 50% but he does like that idea." And the template already exists: Last August, the Trump administration converted Intel's CHIPS Act grants into equity. The government took a 10% stake. Cost basis: $20.47 per share. Total investment: $8.9 billion. Intel closed Thursday at $133.82. That stake is now worth $67 billion. A $58 billion gain in 10 months. A 650% return. Now they're running it on AI. Let's do the math on what that means: OpenAI is valued at $852 billion. Anthropic is fielding $800 billion bids on the secondary market. xAI merged into SpaceX at $1.25 trillion. SpaceX IPO'd and closed day one near $2.1 trillion. Add Meta AI, Google DeepMind, and the AWS infrastructure layer. You're staring at $5 trillion in AI value openly being considered for partial nationalization. A 10% stake across that universe is $500 billion. Bigger than every hedge fund in America combined. Vance laid out the reasoning himself. The industrial revolution made rich people way richer. Workers stagnated. The political consequences were catastrophic. His exact words: "We're going to wake up and we're going to realize that rich people have gotten way richer." Translation: the White House thinks letting OpenAI and Anthropic compound into multi-trillion dollar monopolies is a political time bomb. Their solution isn't to break them up. It's to own them. This is a completely different relationship between the state and capital than anything Wall Street has modeled. For 40 years, the Republican playbook was simple. Deregulate, cut taxes, let founders capture the upside. What Vance just described is the opposite... The line between US AI policy and US AI ownership disappears. The investors who survive this aren't the ones guessing which lab Washington takes first. They're the ones whose strategy was already running before the headline hit. Rules based. Automated. Indifferent to whatever the Vice President said on a podcast at midnight. That's exactly what Surmount was built for...
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The Federal Reserve just told us to forget EVERY rate cut we were promised. And anyone trading the old narrative basically got run over. Here's what happened yesterday: June 17, 2026. Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chairman. The decision itself was boring. Rates held at 3.50% to 3.75%. Markets expected it. Then the projections dropped. Six months ago, the Fed's own dot plot showed one rate CUT coming in 2026. Yesterday, that flipped to one rate HIKE. Nine of 18 officials want higher rates this year. Six of those nine want TWO quarter-point increases. Three months ago, zero officials penciled in a hike. That's a 50 basis point swing in expectations. In one quarter. And Warsh himself refused to submit a projection at all. He told reporters dot plots aren't "helpful." The most hawkish signal a Fed Chair can send without saying a word. The results? The S&P 500 dropped 1.21%. The Nasdaq fell 1.34%. The Dow lost 507 points after touching a fresh all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The 2-year Treasury yield surged 16 basis points to 4.21%. The 10-year hit 4.49%. CME FedWatch now shows a 60.7% chance of a rate hike by October. Some Wall Street desks have it above 90%. Six months ago, the same tool was pricing in three cuts for 2026. Read that again. Three cuts to one hike. In six months. Now let's talk about what this means for your investments: Retail investors entered 2026 with a clear thesis: - Inflation was cooling - Powell was out. Warsh was in - Trump wanted rates lower - Rate cuts were coming That story drove every major trade of the past 12 months. Yesterday, that narrative collapsed. The economy isn't weak enough to cut into. And it's hot enough to potentially hike into. Warsh said it directly: "Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people." Translation: cuts are off the table. Hikes are on it. Trump appointed Warsh expecting cheaper money. Yesterday, Warsh told reporters he hasn't communicated with Trump about anything. Then he formed five task forces to overhaul how the Fed operates. A new chair. A new framework. A new direction. Trump's response when asked about a hike? "Hard to believe." Even the man who picked him didn't see this coming. The investors who survive this transition aren't the ones with the best Fed take. They're the ones whose strategy doesn't require a Fed take at all. Systematic. Rules-based. Adjusts automatically when the inputs change. That's what Surmount was built for. Automated strategies that don't flinch when the narrative does...
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Elon Musk just executed the fastest IPO-to-mega-acquisition in tech history. 96 hours. That's how long it took SpaceX to go from public listing to spending $60 BILLION on a company. And nobody realizes how this ONE play could change the whole AI narrative.... Friday, June 12. SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq under ticker $SPCX. $75 billion raised. $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in human history. Musk became a trillionaire on paper. The story dominated every financial outlet for 72 hours. Was it overpriced? Was it the top? Should retail chase it Monday morning? Tuesday, June 16. 7:32 AM ET. SpaceX files an 8-K with the SEC. The filing announces the acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of AI coding agent Cursor. All-stock deal. $60 billion implied valuation. In plain English: Musk used the public stock he printed on Friday to buy a $60 billion AI company on Tuesday. You cannot do that as a private company. The IPO wasn't the deal. The IPO was the funding mechanism for the deal. Now let's talk about what Cursor actually is. Founded in 2022 by four MIT graduates. An AI coding tool built on top of Visual Studio Code. Pre-deal valuation three months ago: roughly $29 billion. Today's deal valued it at $60 billion. Annualized revenue: $4 billion, projected to hit $6 billion by year-end. Musk had this deal locked in since April. SpaceX secured an option: buy Cursor for $60 billion, or pay $10 billion to walk away. The option was signed before SpaceX had a public ticker. Here's why this matters for the broader AI market: Cursor was Anthropic's biggest customer. It ran on Claude Sonnet, trained on Claude foundation models, paid Anthropic for compute. By Q3, when this deal closes, Cursor becomes a direct competitor to Anthropic's Claude Code and to OpenAI's Codex. The foundation model layer just lost a major customer and gained a major rival in the same SEC filing. Three months ago the AI leaderboard had two names on it. This morning it has four. And the fourth one just listed on the Nasdaq. The math on this deal is brutal. SpaceX's 2025 revenue: $18.7 billion. Cursor's run-rate revenue alone: $4 billion, growing toward $6 billion. A single acquisition just added 30% to SpaceX's top line for less than 3% of its IPO valuation. This is the most cost-efficient AI consolidation deal of the cycle. And it happened in a window so short that most investors didn't even have time to update their thesis on SpaceX before it had already changed. The only fix is to stop trying to react in real time and let a system do the work. A system that doesn't need to know what Musk filed at 7:32 AM. A system that holds positions based on rules, not narratives. Surmount was built for this exact problem:
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This has to be one of the smartest pre-IPO marketing moves ever orchestrated. If you genuinely think the government is scared of you using Fable 5, you're wrong. Anthropic files for a $1 trillion IPO in October, and they're doing everything they can to own the news cycle. Especially now with the SpaceX IPO yesterday... Let's go back to June 1, 2026. Anthropic confidentially files its S-1 with the SEC. Target valuation: $965 billion after a $65 billion Series H. Revenue run rate: $47 billion, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025. A 5x jump in five months. It just leapfrogged OpenAI as the most valuable private AI company on earth. June 9. Eight days after the IPO filing, Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5. The first "Mythos-class" model ever released to the public. State-of-the-art on nearly every AI benchmark. Stripe tested it on a 50 million line Ruby codebase migration. A two-month team project. Fable 5 finished it in one day. The launch blog labels it "too powerful" for unrestricted release. Translation: the most capable AI model ever made public, dropped right after the company files to go public. You couldn't script better PR if you tried. Then 72 hours later, everything changes. June 12. 5:21 p.m. ET. The US Commerce Department sends Anthropic a letter ordering it to block every foreign national from accessing Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Inside or outside the US. Including Anthropic's own foreign employees. Anthropic can't tell who is a foreign national in real time. So they shut it down for everyone. First time in AI history a frontier model deployed to hundreds of millions of users got recalled by the US government. Anthropic's own statement says the government provided no specific national security threat. Earlier that same day. June 12. Morning. SpaceX rings the bell at Nasdaq. $1.77 trillion valuation. $75 billion raised. The largest IPO in financial history. Stock closes at $161, up 19%. Valuation pushes past $2 trillion. Elon Musk becomes the first trillionaire in human history. Hours after the closing bell, the Fable 5 letter lands at Anthropic. SpaceX proved the public will throw record amounts of money at any AI-adjacent IPO right now. OpenAI filed its S-1 this week. Targeting a Q4 listing at $1 trillion. Anthropic is right behind them. October. Three trillion-dollar IPOs in six months. Combined fundraising north of $200 billion. And Anthropic spent the same Friday SpaceX went public owning the news cycle with a "too powerful for the public" model right before its IPO roadshow. Bank of America called this IPO cycle a large-scale transfer of accumulated private risk to retail investors. The math says they're right. SpaceX: $2 trillion valuation. Lost $5 billion last year. $41.3 billion in accumulated losses since 2002. OpenAI: $852 billion valuation. $14 billion in losses this year. Not cash flow positive until 2029. Anthropic: $965 billion valuation. Projected to break even in 2028. The three most valuable companies in history are still losing billions a year. The public market is being asked to fund what private capital couldn't. The companies driving this rally also own pieces of each other. The biggest customers of the AI boom are the biggest investors in the AI boom. Same circular structure that broke the dot-com bubble in 2000. Bigger numbers. The Fable 5 launch and recall isn't a coincidence. Anthropic wanted to be the most discussed AI company in the world the same week SpaceX rang the bell. It worked.
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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BREAKING: A 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher just became one of the largest hedge fund managers on Wall Street. He has ZERO professional investing experience. Yet he's up 270% this year. And he is about to make ONE very big bet... He left OpenAI's Superalignment team in 2024, raised $225 million from Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, and the Collison brothers, and launched Situational Awareness LP. He had never managed money professionally. His entire thesis came from a 165-page essay arguing AI was bottlenecked by physical limits, not algorithms. Today his fund manages over $20 billion. Same size range as Bill Ackman's Pershing Square and Dan Loeb's Third Point. The Wall Street Journal reported it Monday: The fund is up 270% after fees in 2026 through May, and up more than 1,000% since launch less than two years ago. Jane Street, one of the most selective trading firms on earth, just became an investor. The interesting part is what he's shorting. In his Q1 2026 13F filing, Situational Awareness disclosed $8.46 billion in notional put options against the AI chip stocks every retail investor in America is buying. $1.6 billion in puts against Nvidia. $2 billion in puts against the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Plus put positions on Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron, ASML, Intel, and Corning. Read that again. The most successful AI investor on Wall Street, a guy who actually worked inside OpenAI, is paying billions to bet against the exact stocks retail piled into this year. And his trade is already paying. Last Friday, June 5th, the AI chip sector lost roughly $1 trillion in market value in a single session. Marvell dropped 17%. AMD dropped 11%. Nvidia dropped 6%. Aschenbrenner's puts gained value on every single one of those drops. His thesis, in plain language: AI's real bottleneck isn't model quality. It's power, compute, and memory. The companies that win are the ones selling the inputs AI absolutely needs. The companies at risk are the ones whose entire valuation assumes infinite demand from buyers who are themselves losing money. So he went long the inputs. And he hedged the assemblers. This is the difference retail investors almost never see. Retail picks a narrative and rides it forever. Aschenbrenner picks a thesis and structures around it. Same belief in AI. Completely different position. Automated, rules-based strategies that don't marry a narrative. That rebalance when the math changes. That don't care if Nvidia is at all-time highs or down 6% on a Friday. That's the approach Surmount was built around. When the smartest insider in AI is hedging the trade everyone else is doubling down on, the right move isn't to guess which side wins. It's to run a system that doesn't have to:
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BREAKING: $2.5 trillion just got wiped from global markets in 24 hours. Bitcoin crashed below $60,000. The Nasdaq dropped 4% in a single session. And every retail trader's feed is full of people posting their losses in real time... Bitcoin fell from $78,000 to $59,300 in 5 days. A 24% drop in under a week. $1.5 billion in leveraged crypto positions got liquidated in 24 hours. Long positions made up $1.28 billion of that. The fourth time in 5 days that daily liquidations crossed $1 billion. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now posted 11 consecutive days of outflows. $3.5 billion pulled out by institutions in less than two weeks. Then the equity side cracked. Broadcom dropped 13%. Micron dropped 9.5%. SanDisk dropped 11%. Western Digital dropped 8.5%. Roughly $1 trillion in market cap erased from semiconductors alone. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder on earth, dropped 10% after disclosing its first Bitcoin sale in years. 32 coins. $2.5 million. A rounding error against their $59 billion stack. It didn't matter. When the maximalist sells one coin, everybody else hears permission to dump everything. Now here's what actually triggered all of this. The May jobs report came in too strong. 172,000 new jobs against an 85,000 estimate. Prior months revised up by another 93,000. That single data point killed the rate cut narrative. If the economy is too strong, the Fed doesn't cut. If the Fed doesn't cut, risk assets get repriced. Crypto first. Tech stocks second. Everything else last. The entire rally of the past 12 months was built on one assumption. Rates are coming down. That assumption got vaporized in one report. And the market reacted exactly the way it always reacts: Panic. Right now Twitter is full of people posting their losses. "Down $40,000 this week." "Sold my entire crypto position." "Out of the market until things calm down." This is the exact moment retail always loses. Not because the market crashed. Because they're making decisions while watching the crash happen in real time. Every single one of these crashes follows the same pattern. October 2025: $19 billion in liquidations. The biggest wipeout in crypto history. Bitcoin made a new all-time high three weeks later. March 2026: S&P 500 dropped 7% on the Iran war. Retail panic sold at the bottom. The index recovered to a new all-time high in 18 days. February 2026: Bitcoin dropped 15% in one day. Two days later it had bounced 11%. Same script. Every time. The crash creates the opportunity. The panic transfers the assets. The people who sell at the bottom always fund the returns of the people who don't. Here's what's actually different this time: Crypto is no longer separate from equities. Bitcoin used to be the "uncorrelated asset." That story died this week. Bitcoin moved down with the Nasdaq. Down with semis. Down with tech. Down with everything. The diversification most retail investors thought they had? They never had it. They held the same trade in three different wrappers. A Nasdaq ETF. A Bitcoin position. A pile of tech stocks. All three crashed together because all three were the same bet on cheap money. This is the moment that exposes who has a system and who was just riding a narrative. The narrative investor sees their feed full of losses and panics. They sell at the bottom. They sit in cash through the recovery. They buy back in 6 months later when the headlines feel safe again. They have already locked in the worst possible outcome. The systematic investor sees the same feed and doesn't react. Because the system already decided what to do at every price level before today happened. Surmount was built for exactly this moment. Automated, rules-based strategies that execute when the market crashes, not when your emotions do. No panic selling. No FOMO buying. Just rules. Running. While everyone else is screenshotting their losses.
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🚨The U.S.-Japan Genesis Mission deal is worth $1 billion over five years. Japan's separate domestic technology investment plan through 2030 is $376 billion. The bilateral deal is 0.27% of what Japan is already spending alone. That framing matters because the coverage is backwards. The $1 billion isn't the investment story. It's the access story. Japan's core problem isn't capital. It's that AI model development, frontier computing, and scientific data generation are concentrating inside U.S. institutions faster than any allied nation can replicate independently. RIKEN Japan's flagship research institute is deploying 2,140 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs across two new supercomputers. Fujitsu and Argonne National Laboratory are co-developing the software stack. The hardware is Japanese. The AI infrastructure it runs on is American. That dependency is precisely what Genesis Mission formalizes. For NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI, this is the more important data point: the U.S. government is actively constructing a framework in which allied nations' most advanced research institutions become long-term consumers of American AI infrastructure.
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