Media: "Trump thought 4-5 weeks meant 2-3 days and now he's panicking. He wants nothing more than for the fighting to stop. He's desperate for an off-ramp where he doesn't look weak." Trump: "IT IS MY GREAT HONOR—AS YOUR PRESIDENT—TO KILL THESE DERANGED SCUMBAGS IN IRAN!"

Me: "Oh, yeah. Of course, they're gonna reveal that there were FBI assets in the crowd. Probably about 30-50. We all knew that." "The number was 275." Me:

Rand Paul finally found government spending he doesn't want to cut. His.

Bessent was hired to strengthen the dollar by doing the opposite of all the warning signs he saw in the British Pound. Inflated housing markets, treasury yields, etc. all pointed to the big short that the Soros fund pulled off. Bessent's obsession with the prices of homes and the interest rates on treasury bonds isn't just rank populism. He's looking to strengthen the leading indicators of a currency. This is what I mean by "white hat hacking" the dollar. Mapping out its vulnerabilities to protect it against future exploitation. One of the most glaring vulnerabilities was a heavily overinflated trading market. Wall Street was on a sugar high. Hedge funds were leveraged to the gills, and if that bubble popped, it would have created an 08 style financial crisis. The tariff roll out... volatility and all... was a way of creating controlled detonation. Wall Street FREAKED OUT and deleveraged themselves. Now, there won't be any banks or hedge funds who can't afford to pay off their loans because they overlevered. The extreme tariffs are also coming at a time when Bessent sees a recession or depression happening in China. He emphasized this several times with Tucker. By boxing in China and shutting down their exports, he's creating the same conditions that led to the big short of the British Pound. If the Chinese Yuan collapses, then it'll cause a global flight into US Treasury bonds. Driving down interest rates even further for when they go to refinance the $9T of expiring debt.

Oh? Trump is forcing them to spend that bullet already?

Suddenly, the EU is deeply concerned about what Ukraine does with their money—now that it's their money.

I never thought I'd hear those words from someone in power. Bessent has been an incredible hire.

I was wrong. Bessent wasn't JUST hired to white hat hack the USD. No, he was hired to do that and simultaneously do to the People's Bank of China what he did to the British Pound. And these 2 things are connected.

They baited Obama into opening his mouth...

Trump is a mastermind lol This is about as close as it gets to actually winning a war without firing a shot.

Trump was winning in most polls before you ever endorsed him, and you initially endorsed DeSantis. That obviously didn't work out lol.

Today's declassifications put the RussiaGate scandal into a new light. If Hillary knew that the Russians had compromising material on her and believed she was on a cakewalk to the Oval Office? Everything she did was about slipping out from under the thumb of that blackmail. With Obama's help, they contrived a plan to help her slip the noose when she became POTUS. They would preempt the material by destroying the image of the Russians. But not just making them look bad. No, making them look like they had a motive to contrive evidence against her that was fake. To do that, they needed a patsy. So they used Donald Trump, who was never supposed to win. They painted Trump as an asset of the Russians. So, anything the Russians dropped against Hillary? It just made them look even more like the puppet masters behind Trump. It was a flawlessly executed operation. Well, almost. There was one flaw. Trump won. To cover their tracks, they scrambled to destroy him with the same books they cooked against him. They did anything and everything to ensure that he'd never get to the truth. But he survived it all. And he caught them all.

Trump is predictable if you understand that he basically insists that his every week resembles a Harvey Specter episode arc. - Be faced with a problem - Freak everyone the hell out - Talk about winning a lot even while he's freaking you out - Close the deal and win.

Okay. How the hell did he manage this one?

Trump hired one of the guys who specialized in breaking countries for profit in order to white hat hack the US Dollar and make it stronger. That's Scott Bessent.

You're watching the most convoluted and audacious economic strategy by a political figure in world history. However deep you think this rabbit hole goes? Keep digging. It's deeper. There's another layer still. And that's what was required to win the future.

She's going to become a new RW-Resistard because Trump refused to back her Senate run.

Trump has talked about China using currency manipulation to rig international trade in their favor for decades. He knew they'd devalue their currency to blunt the tariffs from term 1. Now, he has someone who can use that tactic against them—the Bessent Short.

He's making an example out of China. Showing the world they have 2 paths. Choose wisely.

Ineligible to run again at the peak of election dead season, and he's drawing crowds like this in hundred-degree heat. A phenomenon that will not be replicated.

Trump: "It's a Democrat hoax!" MAGA X: "HOW DARE YOU EVEN SUGGEST THAT?! IT'S GONNA LEAD TO MASS ARRESTS OF BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES OR IT WOULD IF YOU WEREN'T SUCH AN ISRAELI SPYYYYYYYY" /5 minutes later Whole world: "Holy shit, it's a Democrat hoax."

You're absolutely right. This is how China fights. Through money and politics. The war is happening right now, and Trump has long been the American politician uniquely equipped to fight it. But now he has his General Patton. Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Trump agreed to a deal with the Senate that works but includes him needing to wait until September on the outstanding nominees. One of the few he insisted be confirmed beforehand? The US Attorney for the southern district of Florida. And now the report about Bondi authorizing a US Attorney to go to the grand jury about the conspiracy case. "Trust the plan" sounds like a meme, but there's so obviously a plan for this administration.

Well, step 2 chronologically is Wall Street deleveraging themselves massively to prevent the bubble pop that would have created another 2008 crisis. Step 2 by Trump and team? Consider what they did in step 1. They just made the world (but mostly China and its satellites) far more difficult to invest in. So, the natural step 2 is... making America EASIER to invest in. Step 2 is Recission + Reconciliation. Massive tax cuts. Massive government spending cuts. Massive deregulation done at the congressional level (and therefore stickier) All of this will make America EASIER to invest in. And step 3? Energy dominance. Everyone frets about labor costs, but what happens when traditional labor is covered by widespread robotics and we get a job boom from the keepers of the robots? For that, we need power. Energy. And lots of it. Nuclear, drilling... yes, domestic production. But I bet that more of our imports than ever will also be about energy. Energy too cheap to meter.

Looks like Trump will get what he wants. Millei wins big and leftism is crushed in one significant frontier of our hemisphere.

The treasury posted a surplus, and we're talking about a potential cat fight between the AG and DD of the FBI. The treasury. A SURPLUS FOR AN ENTIRE MONTH OF TRANSACTIONS TOOK IN MORE MONEY THAN IT SENT OUT

"You can't short the Yuan! The PBOC manages it so tightly!!" Oh, so you mean it's pegged to a value that the underlying economic situation might not actually support? Well, that sounds like a scaled up version of the British Pound's ERM peg!

Trump is fundamentally restructuring the economy and some people are so brain-dead as to believe a dead pedo is more important than that.

It's not really Trump vs. Musk so much as Musk debasing himself and Trump dismissing him.

Wait. What? Why would you take Ron Johnson out of the Senate to be an ambassador?

The fundamental struggle is between those who believe America has ultimate leverage on the world stage, and those who either don't believe or resent that fact. Trump is the champion of the believers.

If Elon isn't playing a role, it's a spectacular blunder to think he could ever win a political war against Trump. The money is fairly irrelevant when you don't have the political capital.

Thank you! But honestly, I really am pretty happy with my growth on here lol. Nearing 1,700 followers, and I only made this account in July. I wouldn't say I've done my best work until around March, either. Preexisting relationships with huge accounts like Seth helps lol

Not long ago, we ALL thought Trump was going to need to go full Jackson and defy the Courts in order to get his agenda through. What do you think happened? Bondi happened. Every district court judge slapped around, every lawsuit dismissed, that's all Bondi.

I'm not going to say that Ciatarelli should've won. It was a 10-point loss. That out of the way? I live in an exurban part of South Jersey, and my voting location got a ton of turnout. But it was also a joke as far as security went. I could walk in, give my name and address, and simply go vote. There was no need to present ID. There was "technically" signature verification, but not really. My signature didn't even come close to matching the one they had on file because they had me sign with my finger on a touch screen rather than a stylus. That presented no issue. I simply went in and voted. If this is how lax election day voting is, then I shudder to think about what early voting... either by mail or in person... looks like. Is turnout so high because we've made it this easy to pretend to vote as other people?

Honestly, them doing all of this in a senatorial election where they've already lost the majority, and the presidency is more compelling evidence that they stole 2020 than "Where did X million voters go?"

Entering yesterday, I had 1,630 followers or so. As I brew my morning coffee today? That number is somewhere around 5,200 and still rising. I can't take a screenshot without it becoming old news in seconds. That is incredibly humbling. Thank you to everyone. I'm glad you enjoyed what was essentially some midnight rambling! Some very important credit to @sethjlevy, who DMed me a long thread of a conversation between him and Grok detailing the similarities between the Soros Fund bet on the British Pound and a bet against the PBOC. A lot of my analysis was taking, probably, 30 minutes of content and just turning it into something easily digestible with a post.

Trump hired an autistic billionaire and a POTUS candidate to take a chainsaw to the federal government in the same day he hired a Fox News host to torment the Woke Pentagon DARKEST OF DARK MAGA 🔥🔥

David Axelrod is ready to swear Trump in as 47. WaPo and NYT are running anti-communism pieces against Kamala, and CNN is hosting the writers of it. Democrats are being late-term aborted in Florida. Dem internal pollsters are calling the polls fake. And you're dooming?

The real truth of the matter is that America was destined to lose to China. Really, China's kinda right about that. On a basic level, they're much smarter strategically. Far more fit to be a global hegemon. It just so happens that one American stood up and said: "Hey, wait. I see the game you're playing. Let me play it right back." While Alex and Co scream about 8D chess because they can't comprehend basic strategy.

I said earlier that Trump was getting ahead of an announcement with his Truth Social posts. The CCP just released a statement threatening countries who "cut a deal at the expense of China." It's coming.

My guess: The fracture between USA and China will dissolve the European Union as some countries choose America, and others choose China. Ultimately, I think more choose the USA. But Western Europe can't agree on ANYTHING.

Musk: "Democrats want to cancel elections by flooding the country with illegal immigrants and making them all vote Democrat as suddenly naturalized citizens." Musk, 5 minutes later: "But deportations cost money tho?"

This is what actual power looks like. Trump needs not overreact to anything. Musk can accuse him of being a pedophile, and Trump simply says, "Oh, well. He's wrong about the spending bill he was originally railing against, by the way." That's how useful your Big Bombs are.

And this is why Trump has gone so hard at Canada. The 51st state rhetoric is simply about drawing the point that Canada won't survive on its own. It'll be influenced by one of the world's two great powers. Canada must decide whose influence it really wants.

Like a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat?

MTG has reached the FO phase of proceedings

Bondi never said that, no. Bondi said there were files that were on her desk for review. Stupid media people put words in her mouth. She later clarified, in the same clip, that she'd seen nothing of real significance in those files. Which means SHE NEVER SAID SHE HAD NAMES

Bessent said they avoided a financial crisis. How'd they do it? By scaring markets so thoroughly that they deleveraged themselves, instead of becoming overleveraged on a rickety foundation and falling down a flight of stairs with a noose around their neck.

Trump might have had the time to do this smoothly, but you decided to unleash a virus, shut down the economy, and steal an election. So now you're in for a bumpy ride. Not "us." You.

At this point, the only two explanations are 1) Trump is a master at identifying and exploiting leverage. 2) Trump has some Luck based superpower where the most impossible thing will happen to bail him out every time. I mean, one of these sounds mildly more plausible 😂😂

The play all along. The Bessent short + the Wall Street bond cleanup.

They haven't dumped yet. Though I suspect they might soon. Wall Street dumped amid the deleveraging process. But China hesitates to dump because they have a problem. The US bond is more reliable than theirs right now. It just is. If that bond has a massively higher interest rate TOO? It makes owning Chinese bonds pointless to investors. Why invest in a riskier product for a lower yield? We want interest rates down as part of our longer play. But for the purposes of the Bessent Short? Higher yields put more pressure on the Yuan, and that pressure breaks it. Which then goes to lower the yields... exactly like we desire when it's time to refinance.

"Trump gave Secretary of Labor to someone in exchange for a non-endorsement!" Yes. He's playing for a future endorsement of JD Vance. Do you realize the benefit of flipping the union political machines? Of course you don't.

One of Bessent's most important quotes on Tucker—I'm paraphrasing: "The only people in a position to speak on policy related to the dollar are myself and President Trump." Contrary to fake news about Bessent being overruled or whatever, he's the chief architect of all of this.

All of the reports are focused on the proximity of a Japan deal. But the most brutal domino to fall for China is India. India is their replacement model. India just opened their markets to Tesla after meetings with Musk. And they've started imposing new tariffs on China.

Bessent explains it for everyone: "China's current economic model is built on exporting its way out of its economic troubles. It's an unsustainable model that is not only harming China but the entire world. China needs to change. The country knows it needs to change. Everyone knows it needs to change. And we want to help it change because we need rebalancing, too. China can start by moving its economy away from export overcapacity and towards supporting its own consumers and domestic demand. Such a shift would help with global rebalancing that the world desperately needs."

Bessent's career was made shorting the British Pound. He did that by exploiting vulnerabilities in England's currency that wasn't visible to most people at the time. Part of his assignment is to rid the USD of such vulnerabilities over the long term. White hat hacking the USD

If you want to see signal through the noise in the Trump administration, follow JD Vance's speeches closely. Between Munich, Greenland, and now India... Vance is the one being sent around the world to do this work and build political support While Trump distracts everyone

People are becoming desensitized to the history they're watching unfold. You need to go back to FDR, if not further, to find a POTUS this aggressive in implementing his agenda and changing the country. And the world. Trump's peers are not contemporary. They're men of history.

Wow. 20% blanket. 40% transshipment tariff. And total access? Now there's a deal.

Very true! A great insight. When the Yuan collapses, the dollar will be one of the most attractive safe havens. That will deliver the interest rate crash that they're looking for. Just in time to refinance.

Trump manifests a narrative into public existence with the sheer power of trolling. Vance curates said narrative into something that the smart-set have difficulty refuting.

750 billion dollars in energy sales going to the US instead of places like Russia or the Middle East. Trump has Europe acting like an ally!

Oh, this is diabolical. Humanizing Biden to go after his cabinet 🔥😂

Elon made the tremendous mistake of believing that his money gave him power over Trump. You were always around at the pleasure of the President, Mr. Musk. You're no different from the bureaucrats you went to war against.

An underdiscussed thing going on here... and this isn't directly about tariffs... is that Bessent wants to deregulate the banking industry. The effects this could have on the financial sector are enormous for long-term health. It means more money is betting on good products again. Not giant hedgefunds leveraging themselves to absurd rates in order to profit on financial tricks like basis trading.

So, let me get this straight. WE HAD NEARLY 300 FBI AGENTS IN THE CROWD AND OTHER FBI AGENTS WERE COMPLAINING THAT THE ONES THERE WERE POLITICAL?!?!?! THAT'S A SMOKING GUN AND A BODY WITH A BULLET WOUND WITH A DAMN SIGNED CONFESSION

You actually believe that... a label... will be more effective than arrests and trust busting? A label? Over the decimation of the guilty? A label? Are you insane?

Rubio has a path to becoming a legendary figure in American politics even if he never becomes POTUS. Or VPOTUS. Like Kissinger, he's developing the gravitas and know-how to rewrite how America approaches foreign policy for decades to come. A pillar of the new establishment.

For the people who are panicking, what exactly was India doing for the United States before? Be specific.

Trump is circumventing the Triffin dilemma. Its thesis is that reserve currency status creates an issue where the dominant currency grows continuously and prices the nation's exports out of the global market. The Miran papers floated the possibility of moving off the dollar as the reserve currency in order to balance trade for specifically this reason. It's important to note that Miran was clear that Trump supported a "strong dollar" and specifically called losing reserve currency status "worse than losing a war." So it was unclear how Trump would balance trade without just falling victim to the Triffin dillema. But now it's VERY clear. Trump has tied buying American products to accessing American markets. He's demanding productive foreign investment from countries around the world, be it investing in American production capacity or purchasing American goods, as a price for accessing the American market. He's turned the Triffin dillema into a weapon. The other side of the Triffin dillema is that imports become continuously cheaper as the dollar leaves other currencies in the dust. This means other countries are more and more reliant on America's market as time goes on. Meaning they'll pay more and more to retain access.

The Isolation Endgame. Nobody predicts Donald Trump 100% of the time—that includes me. When he decided to exempt electronics exports from the "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs, that wasn't something I predicted. I was never against it. Tariffs are best understood as levers through which outcomes can be achieved. Not policy in and of itself. I just never thought of it. I want to be honest about that. When it happened, my initial instincts were to see how that move transforms the conditions of the game. The initial thought was actually one of "controlling damage." How much does this dilute our play? How much of China's exports are electronics in any form? 35%. It's a sizable dilution, but not a gamechanger. The pressure on China remains unbelievable. The relief to American companies is real. Probably more significant for them than for China. Through that lens, it makes sense. Moreover, it was easy to spin that from a political standpoint. That was the advantage I picked up on immediately. However, the economic play was something I didn't realize until later. This isn't taking a sledgehammer to the Chinese economy. It's downloading a virus into their operating system. Less flashy, but equally pernicious. People think decoupling is the endgame. It isn't. Isolation is the endgame. See, when decoupling happens, it's the nature of the interwoven global economy that someone will be left out in the cold. Should we have gone full throttle towards decoupling, then both the USA and China would be rushing to build or expand alliances and economic relationships. There'd be a mad dash to freeze out the other by both parties. America could win that race. But it's messy. Risky. And it doesn't come without short-term pain. What if there was a way to isolate China in the same breath as the decoupling? Bypass the frantic scramble entirely. It starts with the structure that Trump has assembled, which is why I'm confident that this is the road we're on. 10% tariffs on the globe. 145% tariffs on non-electronics out of China. 20% tariffs on electronics out of China. Off the rip, for China to be priced out of 65% of their largest export market is a brain scrambling blow. But what happens when allies want to get below the 10% tariff rate? Trump won't let that happen easily, but he will let it happen. For the right price. First, eliminate all of your transshiping routes. No more China exporting to you—to export to the USA. That's already happening. Vietnam is working on that right now, and they won't be the last. That will mean China's largest buyer just completely frozen them out of 65% of their business. Meanwhile, non-electronic goods are the easiest to absorb initial price increases while American companies get online elsewhere. The cost? Nothing to cry about. Their electronics exports aren't safe either. China's being charged 20%. That's not brutal. Companies can bare that while they work their way out of China, but make no mistake... they'll be moving out ASAP. The rest of the world is at 10%. It'll happen slower with electronics, but the result will be the same. China will lose all of their electronics exports to the USA. And they'll lose it to market competition. Meanwhile, the lack of a 145% tariff means China loses while Americans barely pay more on electronic goods. Things get worse, though. That wasn't the only condition. Want your tariff lowered? Here's another thing: Tariff China yourselves. Now, China's rapidly losing its export market entirely. We are talking upwards of a trillion dollars simply vanishing from their economy. And the USA? Prices stay easily manageable. For the price of bankrupting China. Donald Trump defined his endgame today as it relates to his game against China. The endgame isn't decoupling. He's not that merciful. The endgame is—isolation.

Trump was right. This is their next hoax, and Rs got duped.

Fundamentally, Trump 2.0 is about realizing that he didn't think nearly large enough in Trump 1.0 and delivering on decades-long promises. It's about renegotiating the world. That's going to come with volatility. We will be better off for it.

"The United States is in a race with China over the next generation of computing, building artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and other emerging technologies. This is the kind of situation where—if we lose, there may be nothing left to fight over" - Scott Bessent, July

Stupid Canadians fell for it. Trump got his Manchurian candidate in office. NOW WE INVADE

Bessent is still one of Trump's best picks in either term lol

Trump didn't upstage the DNC tonight. He upstaged the entire Kamala campaign.

He's almost surely coming out ahead of a deal. Big news either tonight ahead of the Japanese market open or tomorrow.

I don't think Trump wants Congress to do anything too fast. For 3 reasons. 1) Moving too quickly isn't good for the economy, unfortunately. 2) he's whipping for the BBB, and whipping for too much is going to make the house of cards fall down. But most importantly? 3) Trump does not want a world where Congress needs to sign off on every spending cut. Once upon a time, POTUS had near unilateral authority to cut spending via impoundments. This dates back to Nixon. @sethjlevy explained the history. Impoundment was the POTUS simply deciding not to spend money. Even if Congress appropriated the funds. Recission, the process that we're talking about here, is a mechanism made in the wake of the Impoundment Control Act that was enacted after Watergate. Trump would much prefer the Supreme Court to either limit or eliminate the Impoundment Control Act based on constitutional grounds. And that's why there's so many cases around spending cuts going up to the Court. Trump wants that fight. Recission is a failsafe plan.

This REALLY feels like he's getting ahead of an announcement.

When you understand this, you can grasp the magnitude of what Trump did today. The European Union, NATO, these institutions were founded to limit the power of the USA and to direct its capital into the will of Europe. The US president rounded up their figureheads like children around his desk, and he made them sing his praises. Only Germany could even muster a struggle—a futile one.

It's actually getting funny how many times Trump is correct even over the objections of his own base.

Because this is about getting Trump. The Epstein Hoax. Do you understand now, Benny?

Today: - Trump arranges a peace treaty between Rwanda and Congo that will end decades of bloodshed. - Trump gets recognized by Pakistan for preventing a war between two nuclear powers. - Dudes on X argue Trump is trying to lie everyone into an invasion of Iran.

60,000 pounds of explosives designed not to detonate until they've burrowed 200 feet into the ground. And CNN thinks that scuffed the doors.

"I think there was a chance China could have worked. And I think Xi Jingping has made the decision that he knows more than the market. There was an interesting symbiotic relationship between the state and the free enterprise system from 2000 to 2012. Capitalism with Chinese characteristics. I was never sure it would work, but I thought there was a possibility it could work. In 2013, when Xi Jingping came in, I became very concerned about his telos or ethos that we would end up in a much more autocratic place. And we have. The other thing, too, is that because China is such a big country, such a big economy, so populated, that we tend to think the rules of gravity and economics don't apply to China. That's just wrong. The debt profile, the amount of debt, the unproductive debt, it's all coming home to roost now. It just took longer because they had a lot of unfair trade practices. They kept a very big current account surplus. And you can do a lot of silly things when you keep a big current account surplus. They've just run up this gigantic unproductive debt. We will see in the next year or 2... whether the Chinese economy exists in the way we believe it does." Scott Bessent, 11 months ago.

My favorite thing is: Trump literally got elected because Americans didn't believe that the stock market adequately depicted the state of the economy. And now people think, "There's gonna be a midterm wipeout because the stock market had a bad month"

Russia is a nation of fools. They had Trump's sympathy for months, but they kept pushing and pushing. They believed that they had leverage. That was a grave miscalculation with no motive behind it beyond sheer stupidity.

They say there are no winners in a trade war. Clearly, those people didn't see the before and after photos of my X following! And because they didn't see that, they also don't know about the Bessent Short.

My experience so far... X Trump voters: "THE FOREVER WAR IS HERE" RL Trump voters: "Bro, B2s are fucking sick."

"Drop the tax cuts"? Who the hell voted for that?

Bessent seems 0% interested in calming the markets at open. Guess they have more basis trades to unwind. And he's confident that the PBOC breaks before the Fed. Should that happen? You'll get your plummeting yield, alright...

The engineered panic triggers a massive sell-off, and then Trump floats the idea of a 90-day pause, which I suspect will be for negotiating countries. The massive sell-off? It came largely from hedgefunds and investment firms who had loans to pay and levers to clear.

They heard something. And they're afraid.

Since the Alaska Summit ended - Russia has said repeatedly that they're happy. - Zelensky has agreed to White House discussions on Monday and said that his call with Trump went very well. - Putin vocally took it for granted that Ukraine will need security guarantees to end the war. - European leaders who've spoken up have uniformly seemed pleased with the progress after Trump called them.

As funny as the memes are, the takeaway for me is that Trump trusts Rubio more than anybody outside of Vance.

He's beginning to see the grander game.

People assume China can just do things independent of consequences while the USA is a tangled mess where all of its actions backfire. It's so stupid. "CHINA IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR!" And what will they prop their own currency up with now? Thin air? Think. FFS

Elon realized that the GOP isn't Trump.