Twitter Algorithm explained. If you want to help each other build your Tweepcred (including me) replies go the furthest. Turns out getting "ratio'd" is not a bad thing.

Ontario only tally (n=1,860) from April 21-25 CPC 51%🔵 LPC 42% 🔴 NDP 4% 🟠 GPC 3% 🟢 PPC 1% 🟣 But last two days have seen a tightening (with Conservatives +2.2 points over Liberals) in Ontario.

3-day rolling average (Apr 24-26) for BC, Ontario and Atlantic Canada only (n=4,030) weighted by age, sex and region CPC 47%🔵 LPC 45% 🔴 NDP 5% 🟠 GPC 2% 🟢 PPC 1% 🟣 Regionals will be posted below

3-day rolling IVR average (Apr 25-27) for Ontario only, weighted by age and sex (n=2,370) using random digit dialing. CPC 46%🔵 LPC 44% 🔴 NDP 6% 🟠 GPC 2% 🟢 PPC 2% 🟣

3-day rolling average (Apr 25-27) for BC, Ontario and Atlantic Canada only (n=4,270) weighted by age, sex and region CPC 45%🔵 LPC 43% 🔴 NDP 8% 🟠 GPC 2% 🟢 PPC 2% 🟣 Demographic breakdowns below

Higher Body Count in Married Women Associated With Significantly Higher Prevalence of Cheating on Their Husband Data from the @GSS_NORC's General Social Survey on the number of male sexual partners in married women were analyzed (n=7,526). Comparisons between women who cheated on their husbands and did not cheat were made (n=736 vs n=6970). The average number of male sexual partners for married women who cheated on their husbands was 2.3 times higher than those who did not (8.98 vs 3.87). An independent t-test found that the difference in means (averages) between the two groups was statistically significant (p < 0.05). The married women were then stratified into groups based on the number of male sexual partners to determine the prevalence in cheating in each strata. Compared to married women with only 1 partner (baseline), the odds of a women cheating on her husband is: - 6 times higher with 2-4 partners - 9.47 times higher with 5-10 partners - 14.05 times higher with 11-20 partners - 16.05 times higher with > 20 partners Conclusion: The results of this analysis show a statistically significant difference in the mean (average) number of male sexual partners in married women and the prevalence of cheating on their husbands. Each interval increase in number of partners increases the odds of cheating by several fold. @jordanbpeterson @RealCandaceO @michaeljknowles @whatever @pearlythingz @freshandfitpod @SartainPodcast @RationalMale @DesirableTruth @J_the_stallion8 @israelpadilla__

Tonight I'll either be a laughing stock or the sole outlier. Either way, I'm ready for it. 🙏

Here's my 4-day IVR tally (n=1,410) for a combination of Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and BC weighted by 2024 demographics (gender, age, region). CPC 51%🔵 LPC 38% 🔴 NDP 7% 🟠 GPC 3% 🟢 PPC 1% 🟣 That said, today was a pretty strong day for the Liberals.

17 @Liberal_Party of Canada MP's Have Turned Their Comments Off on X (formerly Twitter) Adam Koeverden - @vankayak Arielle Kayabaga - @KayabagaArielle Charles Sousa - @SousaCharles Chris Bittle - @Chris_Bittle Darren Fisher - @DarrenFisherNS Emmanuella Lambropoulos - @emlambropoulos Jenica Atwin - @JenicaAtwin Jennifer O’Connell - @JenOConnell_ Joël Lightbound - @JoelLightbound Karina Gould - @karinagould Leah Taylor Roy - @Leah_Taylor_Roy Marco Mendicino - @marcomendicino Mark Gerretsen - @MarkGerretsen Omar Alghabra - @OmarAlghabra Pam Damoff - @PamDamoff Ryan Turnbull - @TurnbullWhitby Sherry Romanado - @SherryRomanado

3-day rolling IVR average (Apr 25-27) for British Columbia only, weighted by age and sex (n=1,150) using random digit dialing. CPC 43%🔵 LPC 40% 🔴 NDP 13% 🟠 GPC 3% 🟢 PPC 1% 🟣

Pierre Poilievre plans on removing the OIC power for banning guns and reclassifying firearms based on a task force of firearms experts, not political groups.

A Deep Dive on Guns, Gun Ownership, and Gun Crime in Canada Grab yourself a coffee, and get ready to learn about guns, gun ownership, and gun crime in Canada. 📍Are legal gun owners to blame for the rise in gun crime over the past 8 years? 📍Are more guns related to more homicides and suicides? 📍 Are women disproportionately affected by gun violence in Canada? 📍 Where are the crime guns coming from? 📍 Will banning guns actually result in a reduction of homicides in Canada? We examine all of these topics in our newly released 9m 07s video.

Just peaked at BC, CPC is up 4 points. Another 1 hour and 45 minutes to go!

This is my final IVR poll for the 2025 Canadian election. A lot of people have asked me why my numbers are different than other pollsters. The truth is, I don't know. I followed the principles of random digit dialing and ran the polls from 9am to 9pm every day to ensure that every single person in Canada had an equal chance of being selected for my poll. The poll stated it's intention up front, that it would take approximately 4 minutes, respondents could answer using the number pad on their phones, and that all responses would be completely anonymous. I then weighted the responses based on age, gender and region according to Statistics Canada population data from 2024. My polls might be right, they might be wrong. But all I can say is that I did my best to provide a fair and unbiased snapshot into the opinions of Canadians. I want to sincerely thank all of you who supported me financially over the past few days through "Buy Me A Coffee". 🙏🙏As you know, running a poll is not cheap, but I wanted to do this to see if what I was seeing reflected what other pollsters were seeing. It appears my polls are different. I guess there's nothing to left to say, other than, let's see who is right tomorrow. 🫡

In the United States, primary custody of children has historically been awarded to the mother. However, over the past 24 years, fathers have increasingly been awarded primary custody from 16.0 percent in 1993 to 20.1 percent in 2017. Learn more at: statcloud.com/govstats/child… #primarycustody #divorce #legalseparation #annulment #familycourt

1% of all police reported violence involving women victims in Canada are firearm related. And, only 3.5% of total homicides in Canada are firearm related femicides, the vast majority of which are not committed by PAL holders. So yes, Pam, your policies are literally useless.

Criminal Intelligence Service Canada (CISC, 2019) states in their 2018-2019 National Strategic Firearms Threat Assessment that: 📍A reduction in the domestic availability of handguns will not lead to a reduction in overall violent crimes, as firearms continue to account for only a small percentage of overall violent crimes involving OCGs (Organized Crime Groups) 📍Legislative changes further restricting handgun ownership in Canada are likely to have little immediate effect on firearm-related violence, as the majority of those committing violent acts with handguns are already legally prohibited from purchasing or possessing them. 📍Handguns used in violent crime appear to be primarily sourced in the US while long guns are mostly sourced through theft or diversion from the legal market after purchased legally. 📍Most illicit handguns entering Canada are smuggled from the US 📍The most commonly smuggled firearms are restricted or prohibited firearms that are difficult to obtain domestically. Source: ATIP Request (A-2020-00160): open.canada.ca/en/search/ati… @TWilsonOttawa @CivilAdvantage1 @CCFR_CCDAF @timthurley @Calibremag @CSSA_CILA @CanadasNFA @NFA_Canada @FirearmsNetwork @GunOwnersofCana @csaaaofficial @TheGunBlog

My poll vs @BagelPolling's poll Actually not too far apart in the battleground provinces.

Oh nice, I'm not the only one! 🥲

Yes, if you are a younger male and want to do your part for a CPC win, drag three of your closest buddies who are hoping to own real estate EVER to the polls with you. The older folks have already bought homes back when they were affordable.

Will be IVR polling all day today as usual and then posting the results later tonight after I've finished polling and weighting the results. This will be my last day polling for the 2025 Canada federal election. Thank you to all of those who have donated via "Buy Me a Coffee"

Number of SOLVED firearm related homicides attributed to licenced firearm owners in Canada (2015-2020) According to a 2020 document released in an ATIP request[1] from the Government of Canada, the number of solved firearm-related homicides where a licenced firearm owner was charged in cases of intimate partner violence (IPV) or in total homicides (TH) was: 2015: (8 IPV, 23 TH) 2016: (4 IPV, 18 TH) 2017: (9 IPV, 36 TH) 2018: (9 IPV, 22 TH) 2019: (8 IPV, 24 TH) 2020: (2 IPV, 18 TH) The Government of Canada, under the Liberal Party is going to decimate sport shooting, seize handguns upon the owner's death, wipe out $1.8 billion dollars annually from the economy and eliminate 14,555 full time jobs because in the span of 6 years, 141 licenced firearm owners, which represent 0.00006% of the legal firearms community, committed homicides using a firearm. This amounts to a total of 9% of all shooting homicides that occurred between 2015 and 2020. #LiberalMath @TWilsonOttawa @CivilAdvantage1 @CCFR_CCDAF @timthurley @Calibremag @CSSA_CILA @CanadasNFA @NFA_Canada @FirearmsNetwork @GunOwnersofCana @csaaaofficial @TheGunBlog Source: [1] ATIP Request: "Number of crimes committed from 2015 to 2022 using a valid registered handgun." open.canada.ca/en/search/ati… Note that the document did not specify only firearm related homicides committed with a handgun but rather all firearms.

Does More Legal Guns in Canada Equal More Firearm Related Homicides? Let's look at the numbers provided by Statistics Canada and the RCMP from 2021.[1][2] Legal gun ownership varies across Canadian provinces quite significantly with Yukon, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Northwest Territories having the highest rates of PAL holders. Registered firearm rates (restricted and prohibited) are highest in Yukon, Saskatchewan and Alberta. Here is how the registered gun ownership (restricted and prohibited) rates look visually across various provinces compared to their respective firearm homicide rates. Using a correlation test (Spearman's Rho is used due to a lack of normal distribution among the variable dataset instead of Pearson's R)[3], we see no statistically significant association (p > 0.05) between any of the following variables. (1) total PAL rates and firearm related homicide, (2) restricted firearm rates vs firearm related homicides, (3) prohibited firearm rates vs firearm related homicides, and (4) registered firearm rates vs firearm related homicides. Conclusion Among Canadian provinces there is no statistically significant association between any measures of gun ownership or licensure and firearm related homicides. References [1] Royal Canadian Mounted Police. (2021). 2021 Commissioner of Firearms Report. rcmp-grc.gc.ca/corporate-org… [2] Statistics Canada. (2021). Table 3a: Firearm-related homicides, by province or territory, 2020 and 2021. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/… [3] Akoglu H. (2018). User's guide to correlation coefficients. Turkish journal of emergency medicine, 18(3), 91–93. doi.org/10.1016/j.tjem.2018.…

Comparing Rates of PAL Holders Charged with Firearm-Related Homicide With Rates of the General Adult Population Charged with Homicide in Canada As of December 2021, there were 2,236,983 Canadians with a valid Possession and Acquisition Licences (PAL), which are only issued to individuals 18 and older.[1] During the period of 2015 to 2020, there were a total of 3,415 individuals aged 18 or older who were charged with homicide in Canada.[2] Based on the annual population of those aged 18 and older in Canada, between 2015-2020, adults from the general population were charged with homicide at an average rate of 2.06 per 100,000 population. On the other hand, PAL holders were charged with a total of 141 firearm-related homicides during the period of 2015 to 2020.[3] Based on the number of PAL holders for each year between 2015-2020, PAL holders were charged with homicide at an average rate of 1.11 per 100,000 population. The relative risk between the two groups (PAL Holders vs General Adult Population) was 0.54, meaning PAL holders were charged with firearm-related homicide at a rate that is approximately 54% of the rate at which the general adult population was charged with homicide in Canada during the period of 2015 to 2020." Source: [1] Royal Canadian Mounted Police. (2021). 2021 Commissioner of Firearms Report. rcmp-grc.gc.ca/corporate-org… [2] Statistics Canada. (2023). Number of homicide victims and persons accused of homicide, by Indigenous identity, age group and gender. www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1… [3] Public Safety Canada. (2022). ATIP Request: "Number of crimes committed from 2015 to 2022 using a valid registered handgun." open.canada.ca/en/search/ati… @TWilsonOttawa @CivilAdvantage1 @CCFR_CCDAF @timthurley @Calibremag @CSSA_CILA @CanadasNFA @NFA_Canada @FirearmsNetwork @GunOwnersofCana @csaaaofficial @TheGunBlog

7-day demographic breakdown (Apr 21-27) of IVR polling for 2025 Canadian Election

Critique on Nanos Tracking Poll on Gun Control Let's evaluate this poll conducted by Nanos Research that was commissioned by @DonnaDasko Respondents first were told Here are some proposals on the topic of gun control in Canada. Please tell me if you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose each of the following: Then the following 4 questions were asked of respondents in a random order about whether they support, somewhat support, oppose, somewhat oppose, or are unsure about the following topics. 📍Freezing the sale, purchase, transport and importation of handguns - no descriptions of how handguns have been used in Canada lawfully for the past several decades, nor any information about how strict the acquisition of handguns currently is under the existing regulations 📍Prohibiting new assault-style firearms from entering the Canadian market - no definition of assault-style firearms was included in this survey, nor were any descriptions of how they were used in Canada for decades prior to being banned 📍 Allowing firearms to be removed by a court order from a firearm owner who may pose a danger to themselves or others - this already occurs and 1,441 had their licences revoked and firearms seized in 2021, this is not a change that would be added by Bill C-21 📍 Removing a firearms license from someone in cases where there has been domestic violence or criminal harassment - this already occurs and 152 had their licences revoked in 2021 for this reason, this is not a change that would be added by Bill C-21 🚨Top concerns about this line of questioning🚨 Lack of Knowledge: If respondents are not well-informed about the specifics of gun control policies or the existence of current gun legislation and regulations, their answers may not reflect a considered opinion but rather a general or vague sentiment. For example, without understanding what "assault-style firearms" are, a respondent might support or oppose their prohibition based on an incorrect assumption. Influence of Media and Popular Opinion: In the absence of detailed knowledge, respondents might base their answers on how the issues are portrayed in the media or by public figures, which may not always be accurate or comprehensive. Framing Effects: How questions are framed can significantly influence responses. For example, using the term "assault-style firearms" might evoke different reactions than simply saying "certain types of semi-automatic rifles." It's essential to use neutral language to avoid leading respondents towards a particular answer. Sensitivity to Wording: Ignorant respondents might be more susceptible to the framing effects of questions. They might latch onto specific words or phrases that resonate with them, regardless of the actual policy implications. Question Order: The order in which questions are asked (even when randomized) can influence responses. Earlier questions can set a context that affects how respondents interpret and answer subsequent questions. For example, asking about domestic violence and assault style rifles prior to handguns can create an association between these previous topics and handguns. Lack of Context or Definitions: Without clear definitions of terms like "handguns," "assault-style firearms," or what constitutes "domestic violence" or "criminal harassment," respondents might interpret these terms differently, leading to varied responses. Complexity of Options: Offering only four response options (support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, oppose) may oversimplify respondents' views, especially on complex issues like gun control. Some respondents might hold nuanced opinions that don't fit neatly into these categories. There was no "neutral" option. Emotional or Loaded Language: Certain words or phrases might carry emotional weight or societal connotations that could bias responses. Reliance on Heuristics or Stereotypes: In the absence of detailed knowledge, respondents might fall back on general heuristics or stereotypes about guns, gun owners, or crime, which can lead to biased responses. Conclusion: Based on the wording of the questions in this poll, it is clear that the questions were asked in a way that was as vague as possible, and in a way that could potentially invoke emotional responses from respondents. @DonnaDasko repeatedly reposted gun control rhetoric from gun control groups of X (formerly Twitter) and it is clear she is pushing a narrative rather than truly "listening to Canadians".

3-day rolling IVR average (Apr 25-27) for Atlantic Canada only, weighted by age and sex (n=850) using random digit dialing. CPC 40%🔵 LPC 46% 🔴 NDP 10% 🟠 GPC 2% 🟢 PPC 2% 🟣

This is my city. I'm heartbroken 💔 No firearm was needed for this sickening attack. RIP 🙏🥺

Number of Canadian Firearm Licence Holders vs Number of Registered 'Hockey Canada' Players But remember, hunting and sport shooting "isn't part of Canada's culture"! 🇨🇦 Sources: Hockey Canada, RCMP Commissioner of Firearms Reports

That's a great point. Landlines are disproportionately owned by boomers and older. Many pollsters use known phone number lists to keep costs down but it inserts bias into their samples. I use random digit dialing to reduce/avoid this.

The U.K. has been waiting 50 years for their gun bans to work....

Canadian gun owners 👇

Fully automatic weapon used in shooting in White Rock, BC. Banned in Canada since 1978. #NotIPSC #BillC21

I'll be posting a 3-day rolling tally tonight. Haven't peaked at the results yet.

Are Women Disproportionately Affected by Gun Violence in Canada? According to Statistics Canada, in 2022 approximately 76.5% of homicide victims were men, and 23.5% of homicide victims were women.[1] Gender-related homicide is specifically defined as homicides of women and girls that committed by a male accused who: (a) was an intimate partner or family member of the victim, (b) inflicted sexual violence on the victim as part of the killing or (c) killed a victim who was identified as a sex worker. Gender-related homicide account for 16% of all homicides in Canada. Between 2011 and 2021, of all gender-related homicides of women and girls, the largest proportion died by stabbing (34%), shooting (23%), beating or blows (21%), and strangulation, suffocation, drowning (17%).[3] To put this into perspective, 3.5% of all homicides in Canada were gender-related homicides involving a firearm. Furthermore, among police-reported intimate partner violence involving female victims, only one percent (1%) of cases involved a firearm, compared to 3% involving a knife or sharp object, 1% involved a club or blunt instrument, and 7% involved an "other" weapon.[4] And in fact, overall police-reported violence involving firearms affects men at a rate of 2.3 to 1.[4] That being said, only 4% of total police-reported violence involving either sex involve a firearm. It is important that if Canada is going to be passing sweeping policy changes based on very emotionally charged subjects like gender-related intimate partner violence that politicians are operating within the realm of fact and not feelings. Sources: [1] Statistics Canada. (2023). Victims of homicide, by gender-related criterion and incident characteristic, Canada, 2011 to 2021. www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1… [2] Statistics Canada. (2023). Gender-related homicide of women and girls in Canada. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/… [3] Statistics Canada. (2023). Victims of homicide, by gender-related criterion and incident characteristic, Canada, 2011 to 2021 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/… [4] Statistics Canada. (2023). Victims of police-reported intimate partner and no jfrte of weapon present and level of injury, Canada, 2019 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/…

Do More Legal Guns in Canada Equal More Firearm Related Homicides? (Part 2) In our analysis, we compare the rates of registered (restricted & prohibited) firearms per 100,000 in Canada from 1978 to 2021 with the corresponding years' homicide rates (all methods) per 100 and firearm-related homicides per 100. Restricted and prohibited firearms, classified as most dangerous by the RCMP and Canadian government, face potential bans due to their perceived public risk. Our null hypotheses posit (1) no association between registered firearm ownership and homicide rates in Canada, and (2) no association between registered firearm ownership and firearm-related homicide rates in Canada. Building on the analysis from Part 1, we use Spearman's rank correlation to assess the association, given the non-normal distribution in the firearm ownership data (Shapiro-Wilk p=0.0047). This statistical method measures the strength and direction of association between two ranked variables. Result (1): Spearman's rank correlation coefficient for registered firearms and homicide (all methods) = 0.13539 (p=0.3809). This indicates a weak and statistically insignificant association. Result (2): Spearman's rank correlation coefficient for registered firearms and firearm-related homicide = 0.23462 (p=0.12528). Similarly, this suggests a weak and statistically insignificant association. Conclusion: After analyzing 44 years of data on registered (restricted and prohibited) firearm ownership in Canada, and comparing it to the corresponding homicide and firearm-related homicide data, we find no evidence of a statistically significant association. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficients in both cases suggest weak associations that are not statistically significant, leading us to retain both of our null hypotheses. This implies that, based on our analysis, registered firearm ownership does not have a discernible impact on homicide rates or firearm-related homicide rates in Canada over the studied period. Source: [1] RCMP Commissioner on Firearms Reports (2005 to 2021) [2] Statistics Canada. Table: 35-10-0069-01

Nope, nope, and nope. There is no correlation between between the number of legal firearms in Canada (as a whole) and the firearm homicide rate. nitter.app/StatisticCloud/s… There is no correlation between the number of legal firearms among provinces and the firearm homicide rate among provinces. nitter.app/StatisticCloud/s… Finally, when adjusting for population size, firearm discharges with intent were 3.45 times higher in Toronto than 8 other urban Canadian cities combined during the years 2016-2017 despite Toronto having the LOWEST PAL rate among those cities. nitter.app/StatisticCloud/s…

Death toll of last night's "mass-casualty event" has risen to 11 people. 😔 Not a single post about it from @Polysesouvient who supposedly cares about preventing mass-casualty events, because a vehicle was used instead of a firearm.

.@IanRunkle's Legal smackdown on anti-gun advocate "Progressive Canadian (PC Party) candidate-of-record" @BrianMarlatt over self-defence in Canada

Repeating "assault weapons" over and over doesn't make it truer the 100th time. Semi-automatic-only rifles with fixed magazines like the SKS are not assault rifles; they do not have detachable box magazines and are not capable of automatic fire.

If young and middle aged men show up, then absolutely.

Whoever donated $50 to me this morning through "Buy Me a Coffee" you are a legend. 🙏🙏 I'm spending approximately $250 a day polling right now, which is coming out of my pocket. Going to be posting another update tonight after dinner hours.

As confirmed by running the numbers (unweighted) myself, what @datepsych said is true. The narrative that only young American men are reportedly having less sex is only part of the story. Although, I'm not super happy about the small sample sizes, which is why I decided to report the proportions in two year increments to increase statistical power. Despite this, the margins of error are still large. To be fair though, it's not only the "Manosphere" pushing this talking point. I remember when the 2016-2018 data come out, a lot of feminist blogs were reporting the decline in male sexual frequency as evidence that women are being sexually liberated and leaving the "loser men" behind. Then once the 2021-2022 numbers came out, many on both sides were silent.

Sorry everyone. I will go over the numbers and try and figure out what happened with my polling. This was my first ever time polling a federal election, and I honestly think nobody expected the NDP to do so poorly that they couldn't vote split any of the Liberal vote.

In response to the rise in home invasions, @TorontoPolice gives a list of actions people can take to protect themselves and their homes. Note the absence of anything related to self defense while you wait 22 minutes for the TPS to arrive to your home.

Badge of Honour! 🫡

Once again, @EKOSResearch and Frank Graves have proven that they are not a serious polling firm. The national spread is +2 LPC, and they predicted anywhere from LPC +6 to LPC +10. Even I was closer than to the real result than that.

In response to the announced handgun freeze in 2022, Canadian PAL holders (individuals, not law enforcement) legally acquired a record breaking 164,519 handguns before the freeze came into effect, according to an ATIP request from the RCMP. This is in contrast to the period of 2015-2021, when Canadian PAL holders acquired an average of 102,652 handguns per year.

Vicki, the math ain't mathing 🙄 The net deficit over almost 10 years of Harper was -$119.4 billion The net deficit over almost 10 years of Trudeau is -$607.8 billion. Source: Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada (2006-2024)

Gun control logic be like....

.@ElectionsBC estimates that approximately 49,000 ballots are still to be counted, and will be part of the final count on October 26-28. elections.bc.ca/news/initial…

Mendicino's talking points for the media when announcing changes to Bill C-21 in April 26, 2023. #1) One Canadian killed by gun violence is too many Imagine if they applied that standard to literally any other cause of death. Source: Public Safety Canada. (2023). ATIP Request: Documents from November 2022 to April 28, 2023 regarding the impact on crime coming from the first step of the government's gun buyback program. open.canada.ca/en/search/ati…

PAL holders are charged with firearm-related homicide at a rate that is approximately 54% of the rate at which the general adult population was charged with homicide in Canada during the period of 2015 to 2020. Source: nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/… One of the biggest narratives pushed by gun control advocates is that homicides when committed with a gun are somehow worse than other types of homicides, which is why you will never hear them talk about: 1) 2022 Saskatchewan mass stabbing (12 dead, 18 injured) 2) 2021 London truck attack (4 dead, 1 injured) 3) 2021 North Vancouver mass stabbing (1 dead, 6 injured) 4) 2018 Toronto van attack (11 dead, 15 injured) 5) 2014 Calgary mass stabbing (5 dead) 6) 1992 Giant Mine Murders (9 dead) Or any of the other many stabbings that occur in Canada on a regular basis.

Only 14% of Canadians want to re-elect the Liberal government. 85% say it's time for change via Abacus.

Confirmed real. Google Maps Coordinates: 53.8580855, -122.6868505

During the period of 2009 to 2022, there were a total of 2,624 police-reported firearm-related violent crime incidents involving a fully automatic firearm in Canada. Those guns have been banned since 1978. 🤔 Source: Statistics Canada (2024). Firearms and violent crime in Canada, 2022, Table 4. Juristat.

Somethings not adding up here. How can an addition of 777,931 handguns entering the legal market in Canada have no discernible effect on the number of PAL holders charged with homicide during the same period? Unless #ItsNotTheGuns 👇

Repeating "assault weapons" over and over doesn't make it truer the 100th time. Semi-automatic-only rifles with fixed magazines like the SKS are not assault rifles; they do not have detachable box magazines and are not capable of automatic fire.

Higher Body Count in Married Women Associated With Significantly Higher Prevalence of Cheating on Their Husband (Part 2) Continuing on from the last post in this series, we compare the prevalence of women ever cheating on their husband between currently married and divorced/separated women from the @GSS_Norc GSS data set (n=11,528). 9.8% of currently married women have cheated on their husbands, compared to 25.8% of divorced/separated women who cheated on their husbands while they were married. When stratified by number of male sexual partners (body count), women who have had > 20 Partners had a 58% prevalence of cheating on their former husbands compared to 31.8% of currently married women. To check for statistical significance of our results, we ran a chi squared test for: (1) the differences between the frequency of cheating in married and divorced/separated women, which was statistically significant (2) the differences between the frequency of married and divorced/separated women cheating on their husbands and and body count, which was statistically significant Conclusion: There is a significant difference between the prevalence of women cheating on their husbands in married vs divorced/separated women and the frequency of cheating increases linearly with higher body counts. The differences between the marital status groups are statistically significant. @whatever @freshandfitpod @SartainPodcast @RationalMale @StirlingWisdom

Femicides in Canada involving a firearm occur at a rate of 11.8% of the rate of homicides of all women and girls, 22.2% of the rate of gender-related homicides of women and girls, and 3.9% of the rate of homicides of all men and boys. Most importantly, the vast majority of intimate partner violence homicides using a firearm were committed by people who were not PAL holders

🚨FACT CHECK FRIDAY🚨 Canadian 🇨🇦 Member of Parliament @JenOConnell_ insinuates that "more guns in our communities will" make Canadians more unsafe and that any belief to the contrary is an @NRA talking point. Let's look at the facts. The most "dangerous" firearms in Canada are classified as restricted or prohibited, and both must be registered with the RCMP. The number of registered firearms in Canada has steadily increased 19.1% between the period of 2015 to 2020. During the same period, the total number of Possession and Acquisition Licence (PAL) holders charged with homicide, or intimate partner violence homicide has remained flat and low.[1] PAL holders were charged in only 9% of all shooting deaths from 2015 to 2020 despite three quarters of all homicides in Canada being solved within a year.[1] Violent crime and total homicides are up in Canada, but it's not PAL holders who are responsible for this. Quite the contrary. 📍PAL holders commit firearm-related homicide at a rate of 54% of Canada's general adult population's total homicide rate.[2] 📍During the period of 2000 to 2021, the proportion of suicide by firearms in Canada decreased a total of 5.4 percentage points (19% vs 13.6%) despite the number of registered firearms in Canada nearly doubling during from 2010 to 2020.[3] 📍When adjusting for population size, violations of firearm discharges with intent were 3.45 times higher in Toronto than 8 other urban Canadian cities combined during the years 2016-2017 despite having the lowest PAL holder rate among Canada's top 10 largest cities.[4] 📍There is no evidence that more legal guns in Canadian provinces is associated with higher rates of firearm-related homicide when applying the appropriate statistical tests.[5] Conclusion: Jennifer O'Connell is pedaling typical firearm-phobic lies. Source: [1] nitter.app/StatisticCloud/s… [2] nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/… [3] nitter.app/StatisticCloud/s… [4] nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/… [5] nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/…

Proportion of firearm-related homicide suspects charged in Canada during 2015-2020 that were PAL holders was 18%. In 2022, it dropped to 12.9% despite having the highest firearm-related violent crime rate recorded since comparable data were first collected in 2009. Not looking good for anti-gun lobbyists. Source: Statistics Canada www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/…

100% of the polls reporting in the federal by-election of Cloverdale-Langley City. Conservatives win with 66.3% of the vote, followed by Liberals with 16.0%. Absolute blowout. Exceeded all polls and predictions.

Proportion of Suicides by Firearms vs Other Methods in Canada Has Steadily Decreased From 2000 to 2021 During the period of 2000 to 2021, the proportion of suicide by firearms in Canada decreased a total of 5.4 percentage points (19% vs 13.6%), while the proportion of suicides by hanging has increased 9.8 percentage points (42.9% vs 52.7%). This decrease occurred despite the fact that during the period of 2010 to 2020, the number of registered restricted firearms (assault style rifles and handguns) nearly doubled. Source: Statistics Canada. (2021). www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/tbl/…

Atlantic Canada (n=640): CPC 51%, LPC 43%, NDP 4% BC (n=1,040): CPC 45%, LPC 43%, NDP 10% Ontario (n=2,200): CPC 46%, LPC 47%, NDP 3%

Repeating "assault weapons" over and over doesn't make it truer the 100th time. Semi-automatic-only rifles with fixed magazines like the SKS are not assault rifles; they do not have detachable box magazines and are not capable of automatic fire.

Didn't do a thing for the UK

Marriage Rates in the United States Continue to Decline Marriage rates reached an all time low in the United States in 2020 at 5 marriages per 1,000 population followed by a modest rebound in 2021 to the second lowest rate of all time of 6 marriages per 1,000 population. Less Americans are getting married now than ever before since marriage rates began being tracked in 1900. statcloud.com/govstats/marri… #marriage #marriagerates #divorce

Not a PAL holder. Had firearms prohibition. #BillC21

Canada's Violent Crime Severity Index has only gone down in the past 25 years under a Conservative Government. That's a fact.

Remember folks, in Canada, if any of the victims had carried a "weapon" for self defense, they would have been arrested and charged.

Extremely Liberal Women, Atheistic Women and Spiritual Women Most Highly to Cheat on Husbands (Part 3) Continuing on from the last post in this series, we compare the prevalence of women ever cheating on their husbands with their political views and beliefs in God from the @GSS_Norc GSS data set (n=14,557). Women who rate themselves more Liberal and women who don't believe in God have the highest prevalence of cheating on their husbands and among the highest number of sexual partners. Interestingly, women who "Believe in a higher power", more commonly referred to as spiritual but not necessarily religious had a higher prevalence of cheating and higher number of sexual partners as well. Both chi square tests show this association between variables is statistically significant with a p value < 0.001.

Donna Dasko has a history of polling on gun control issues circa 1995 and has been pushing for a handgun ban since the 1990's. Read the article below 👇 producer.com/news/most-women…

Yep, multiple shootings on some days. Handgun transfers have been frozen for over a year and yet there is no impact on gun crime because these shootings aren't being committed by PAL holders.

Gender Breakdown Men: 52% CPC, 40% LPC Women: 39% CPC, 48% LPC Age Breakdown: 18-34: 49% CPC, 33% LPC 35-54: 51% CPC, 40% LPC 55+ 37% CPC, 56% LPC

Once Bill C-21 fails to have any demonstrable effect on homicides in Canada, Liberals will reintroduce the long gun registry and forcibly confiscate the remaining "frozen" handguns. And then finally, ban hunting rifles. Still, just like in the UK, it will have no effect on homicide rates.

Are Women Disproportionately Affected by Gun Violence in Canada? According to Statistics Canada, in 2022 approximately 76.5% of homicide victims were men, and 23.5% of homicide victims were women.[1] Gender-related homicide is specifically defined as homicides of women and girls that committed by a male accused who: (a) was an intimate partner or family member of the victim, (b) inflicted sexual violence on the victim as part of the killing or (c) killed a victim who was identified as a sex worker. Gender-related homicide account for 16% of all homicides in Canada. Between 2011 and 2021, of all gender-related homicides of women and girls, the largest proportion died by stabbing (34%), shooting (23%), beating or blows (21%), and strangulation, suffocation, drowning (17%).[3] To put this into perspective, 3.5% of all homicides in Canada were gender-related homicides involving a firearm. Furthermore, among police-reported intimate partner violence involving female victims, only one percent (1%) of cases involved a firearm, compared to 3% involving a knife or sharp object, 1% involved a club or blunt instrument, and 7% involved an "other" weapon.[4] And in fact, overall police-reported violence involving firearms affects men at a rate of 2.3 to 1.[4] That being said, only 4% of total police-reported violence involving either sex involve a firearm. It is important that if Canada is going to be passing sweeping policy changes based on very emotionally charged subjects like gender-related intimate partner violence that politicians are operating within the realm of fact and not feelings. Sources: [1] Statistics Canada. (2023). Victims of homicide, by gender-related criterion and incident characteristic, Canada, 2011 to 2021. www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1… [2] Statistics Canada. (2023). Gender-related homicide of women and girls in Canada. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/… [3] Statistics Canada. (2023). Victims of homicide, by gender-related criterion and incident characteristic, Canada, 2011 to 2021 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/… [4] Statistics Canada. (2023). Victims of police-reported intimate partner and no jfrte of weapon present and level of injury, Canada, 2019 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/…

I don't know because they don't detail how they conduct their polls.

Should I start IVR polling Albertans on whether or not they support separation?

Has the United Kingdom's Strict Firearm Regulations Had Any Effect on Overall Homicide Rates? Over 50 years later and banning of the vast majority of private ownership of guns in England and Wales, the homicide rates (all methods) remains virtually unchanged with some fluctuations throughout the years. Source: Office for National Statistics. (2022). Crime and justice: homicide in England and Wales. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationa… @TWilsonOttawa @CivilAdvantage1 @CCFR_CCDAF @timthurley @Calibremag @CSSA_CILA @CanadasNFA @NFA_Canada @FirearmsNetwork @GunOwnersofCana @csaaaofficial @TheGunBlog

No, Tracey, it's hunters and Olympic sport shooters. /sarcasm

Glock 43's were prohibited in Canada even before the handgun freeze. 🤔

Fact checking The Hill Times (@TheHillTimes) article titled "Gun control is a women’s issue" Full article: archive.is/7i3Re Claim #1) Access to firearms is linked to a more than ten-fold increase in the likelihood that intimate partner violence will be fatal, making gun ownership the single greatest risk factor for femicide. Firearms are also used by men in the context of coercive control to threaten, dominate, and terrorize female intimate partners. In rural Canada, they are the most common method used to murder an intimate partner or a child. Response: Between 2011 and 2021, of all gender-related homicides of women and girls, the largest proportion died by stabbing (34%), shooting (23%), beating or blows (21%), and strangulation, suffocation, drowning (17%). To put this into perspective, 3.5% of all homicides in Canada were gender-related homicides involving a firearm. In addition, 77% of firearm related homicide victims are men. Rural Canada is cherry picked here by the authors because referencing all of Canada does not fit their narrative. nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/… Claim #2) Armchair experts are telling Senators that C-21 will not protect women because it focuses on “law-abiding citizens,” that is, legal gun owners. They are spreading the dangerous rhetoric that if someone has been background checked, they are not a threat. That if someone is a legal gun owner, they are not violent. That the problem is limited to gangs, and street violence, and loose borders. Response: The relative risk between PAL Holders and the Canadian General Adult Population was 0.54, meaning PAL holders were charged with firearm-related homicide at a rate that is approximately 54% of the rate at which the general adult population was charged with homicide (all methods) in Canada during the period of 2015 to 2020. Meanwhile, gang related homicides have risen 92.6% under Justin Trudeau since 2015 and is a major driver of firearm related homicide rates. nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/… nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/… Claim #3) If only abusers walked around with “I am violent” written on their forehead. But, as the real experts know, domestic violence is far from exceptional. The idea that people who appear law-abiding, who have a particular hobby, or who are not in a gang cannot be abusers is a domestic violence myth. Ask the neighbours of any femicide victim: they’ll swear the killer was just an average Joe. Response: An average of 6.67 PAL holders (out of 2.2 million) are charged with intimate partner violence homicide involving a firearm per year. That equates to 0.0003% of PAL holders. nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/… Among police-reported intimate partner violence involving female victims, only one percent (1%) of cases involved a firearm, compared to 3% involving a knife or sharp object, 1% involved a club or blunt instrument, and 7% involved an "other" weapon. nitter.app/StatisticCloud/status/… Reality check: Femicide involving firearms committed by a PAL holder is VERY rare in Canada. And police reports of intimate partner violence with female victims involve firearms only 1% of the time. While it is not an issue to be trivialized, banning millions of firearms from safe and responsible firearm owners for the actions of 0.0003% of the population hardly seems fair or justified when more could be done under the existing regulations.

A surprisingly critical response by @GlobalNews to Trudeau's most recent gun ban. Has hell frozen over? Could they have gone further? Sure, but they admit legal gun owners are not the problem. piped.video/watch?v=VL1MZSwc…

Just a reminder I'll be polling until 9PM Pacific Time for folks in BC, so I will be posting polling results after that.

Critique on Nanos Tracking Poll on Gun Control Let's evaluate this poll conducted by Nanos Research that was commissioned by @DonnaDasko Respondents first were told Here are some proposals on the topic of gun control in Canada. Please tell me if you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose each of the following: Then the following 4 questions were asked of respondents in a random order about whether they support, somewhat support, oppose, somewhat oppose, or are unsure about the following topics. 📍Freezing the sale, purchase, transport and importation of handguns - no descriptions of how handguns have been used in Canada lawfully for the past several decades, nor any information about how strict the acquisition of handguns currently is under the existing regulations 📍Prohibiting new assault-style firearms from entering the Canadian market - no definition of assault-style firearms was included in this survey, nor were any descriptions of how they were used in Canada for decades prior to being banned 📍 Allowing firearms to be removed by a court order from a firearm owner who may pose a danger to themselves or others - this already occurs and 1,441 had their licences revoked and firearms seized in 2021, this is not a change that would be added by Bill C-21 📍 Removing a firearms license from someone in cases where there has been domestic violence or criminal harassment - this already occurs and 152 had their licences revoked in 2021 for this reason, this is not a change that would be added by Bill C-21 🚨Top concerns about this line of questioning🚨 Lack of Knowledge: If respondents are not well-informed about the specifics of gun control policies or the existence of current gun legislation and regulations, their answers may not reflect a considered opinion but rather a general or vague sentiment. For example, without understanding what "assault-style firearms" are, a respondent might support or oppose their prohibition based on an incorrect assumption. Influence of Media and Popular Opinion: In the absence of detailed knowledge, respondents might base their answers on how the issues are portrayed in the media or by public figures, which may not always be accurate or comprehensive. Framing Effects: How questions are framed can significantly influence responses. For example, using the term "assault-style firearms" might evoke different reactions than simply saying "certain types of semi-automatic rifles." It's essential to use neutral language to avoid leading respondents towards a particular answer. Sensitivity to Wording: Ignorant respondents might be more susceptible to the framing effects of questions. They might latch onto specific words or phrases that resonate with them, regardless of the actual policy implications. Question Order: The order in which questions are asked (even when randomized) can influence responses. Earlier questions can set a context that affects how respondents interpret and answer subsequent questions. For example, asking about domestic violence and assault style rifles prior to handguns can create an association between these previous topics and handguns. Lack of Context or Definitions: Without clear definitions of terms like "handguns," "assault-style firearms," or what constitutes "domestic violence" or "criminal harassment," respondents might interpret these terms differently, leading to varied responses. Complexity of Options: Offering only four response options (support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, oppose) may oversimplify respondents' views, especially on complex issues like gun control. Some respondents might hold nuanced opinions that don't fit neatly into these categories. There was no "neutral" option. Emotional or Loaded Language: Certain words or phrases might carry emotional weight or societal connotations that could bias responses. Reliance on Heuristics or Stereotypes: In the absence of detailed knowledge, respondents might fall back on general heuristics or stereotypes about guns, gun owners, or crime, which can lead to biased responses. Conclusion: Based on the wording of the questions in this poll, it is clear that the questions were asked in a way that was as vague as possible, and in a way that could potentially invoke emotional responses from respondents. @DonnaDasko has repeatedly reposted gun control rhetoric from gun control groups of X (formerly Twitter) and it is clear she is pushing a narrative rather than truly "listening to Canadians".

Canadians living in Conservative run provinces are less likely to have unmet healthcare needs than provinces run by Liberals and NDP It's disappointing that so many people believe these Liberal talking points from people like @fredhickey Source: Statistics Canada. (2023). 13-10-0836-01

Over the last five years, 44 per cent of all people charged with homicide in Saskatchewan were on court-ordered conditions, bail, parole or probation at the time. thestarphoenix.com/news/loca…

All teenagers, safe to say not PAL holders. #NotAGunRange #NotIPSC #BillC21 toronto.citynews.ca/2024/02/…

Boomers.

Love it!

Fact Checking Minister LeBlanc on Support for Bill C-21 During Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc's (@DLeBlancNB) testimony before the SECD at @SenateCA, he specifically stated "I don’t think that Indigenous peoples were at large opposed with this bill, and I don’t think hunters or sports groups oppose this legislation". This testimony is in direct contrast to the largest stakeholder engagement project of its kind on this topic in the fall of 2018 by Public Safety Canada which found that all the shooting sports clubs/associations and retailers, most of the academic/researchers and wildlife/conservations associations, as well as a territorial government, an association representing rural municipalities and a group representing LGBTQ+ firearms owners who provided written submissions to Public Safety Canada were in opposition to a ban on handguns and assault-style firearms. Source: Public Safety Canada. (2019). Engagement Summary Report - Reducing Violent Crime: A Dialogue on Handguns and Assault-Style Firearms. publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs…

Let's see the poll.

Most Common Homicide Methods in Canada Shootings were the most common method of homicide for 2 out of 10 years under @StephenHarper's Conservatives, while shootings have been the most common method of homicide for 8 out of 8 years under @JustinTrudeau's Liberals. See more at: statcloud.com/govstats/homic… #homicide #justintrudeau #crimeincanada #guns #firearms #guns @PierrePoilievre @RaquelDancho @brianlilley @thevivafrei @LeslynLewis @TWilsonOttawa @CPC_HQ @Skamski @JohnNaterMP @LarryMaguireMP @KevinWaugh_CPC @ziad_aboultaif @annarobertsmp @CCFR_CCDAF @CivilAdvantage1

Support you say?

So today I've been polling BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. The lead has only grown and I don't even know if my results can be trusted, that's how big the lead is for the CPC right now. Either Liberals are absolutely refusing to answer polls right now or something has shifted.

Can't buy these in Canada. Not PAL Holders. #BillC21 #NotIPSC

This type of rhetoric is incredibly irresponsible. Tell me you don't understand what an epidemic is, without telling me you don't understand what an epidemic is. This is why Poly should not be dictating policy. They don't understand basic definitions.

There are literally several tweets from @Polysesouvient applauding the handgun freeze and supporting the Bill C-21 (now withdrawn) amendments which would have banned several legitimate hunting rifles. #TheyAreAntiGun

Lesbian women significantly more likely to be victims of spousal violence than (1) women in heterosexual relationships with men, and (2) men in heterosexual relationships with women during the period of 2009-2019 in Canada. In all, the large majority (80%) of spousal victims said the violence they experienced was not reported to police.