Value investor with some opinions. Registered Independent. I mock BOTH parties... especially YOURS. My name is Mark B. Spiegel. StanphylCap.com
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For the average American, this will be the single most disastrous economic policy ever implemented. They will be SHOCKED when they walk into Walmart in a few months.
Trump's popularity will plunge to new lows.
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$NVDA buying back stock @ 25x REVENUE while the CEO dumps almost $20M worth almost every DAY is priceless!
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Right now:
VW stake in Porsche = 45 billion euros.
VW stake in Traton = 14 billion euros.
Total: 59 billion euros
VW market cap: 46 billion euros
VW's ownership of Audi, VW cars, Skoda, Seat, Cupra Lamborghini, Bentley and Ducati: free
(We're long $VWAPY)
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Okay, this is CLASSIC $TSLA scumbaggery!!!
Remember how in Q4 it INCLUDED a $600M mark-to-market Bitcoin (digital assets) gain even in NON-GAAP income?
Well THIS quarter it had a mark-to-market Bitcoin loss so it REDEFINED non-GAAP income to EXCLUDE it!!!
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Even though Trump is a vile human being, his policies are better than Biden's and while I was previously planning to abstain, I may now vote for him just as an F-U to the Democrats who brought a political case that wouldn't have happened against any other person in America.
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When a CEO tells you that 80% of the value of his $1 trillion+ company "heading to $25 trillion" comes from "a product" that is nowhere NEAR existing (generalized AI robots) & has SCORES of competitors...
You might want to wake up & realize he's running a stock promotion.
$TSLA
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The S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio has never been higher.
If you think this will end well, you've never studied financial history.
(No, this time is NOT "different.")
We remain short $SPY.
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But you've been doing this for 7 years already! I mean you wouldn't lie to us, would you?
Welcome @Chiefboltkennyh to @TeslaMotors. He will apply Formula 1 techniques to revolutionize servicing mainstream cars.
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What to know what a big chunk of $TSLA's Q4 income was (besides 25% of it being emission credits that will likely disappear)?
"$0.6B mark-to-market gain on digital assets"
Yup, they booked unrealized Bitcoin gains into profits.
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Keith, did you really go to Cornell? (I know you did- I'm a VBR alum too.)
Did you know all 1.4B cars & light trucks in the world COMBINED contribute only 12% of man-made CO2?
Have you done a "temperature cost-benefit analysis" of spending TRILLIONS on (half fossil-fueled) EVs?
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$TSLA will earn around $4 billion this year. For the next 2 years of part-time work its CEO will be paid $29 billion.
If you still had any doubt that Tesla is now nothing but a giant bubble-fraud stock promotion, that should allay any fear that it isn't.
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Isn't this what Musk "invented" last night, lol.
Okay, not exactly: his version DOESN'T EXIST.
$TSLA remains the biggest bubble-fraud in stock market HISTORY.
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If the Fed does 75bp, then 50bp then 25bp then "pauses"@ 4.625% while continuing $90B/mo of QT, is there anyone with an IQ > room temp who doesn't realize that most asset prices will continue sliding into the toilet?
Do you think current valuations can withstand that environment?
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In case my suspension is near, I at least feel that a large part of my work here is done: it’s now widely understood that Elon Musk is a pathologically lying fraud & scumbag, and his professional demise surely approaches.
And oh, $TSLA was the biggest bubble-fraud in history!
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This Twitter deal will wipe Musk out.
He's borrowing HEAVILY in LTV terms against $TSLA stock that will literally be down 95% before this bear market is over (and, at $50/share/$55 billion the company would STILL be grossly overvalued).
He's DONE, slow-motion train wreck style.
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Has anyone noticed that on this $TSLA call Musk moved the back the date of your personal Tesla working autonomously to the end of 2026?
In other words, for the 10th year in a row, it's "by the end of next year."
Pathological liars are gonna pathologically lie, lol.
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Congrats to every human who actually READ the $AMZN earnings report and saw through the algo-driven action and shorted the stock in the high $3200s. That's what makes this game worth playing.
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You know how $TSLA plunged today upon the release of that horrible earnings report?
Well beginning at EXACTLY 4:20PM "someone" bought it like crazy and took it from $378 to $406.
"Someone" at 420. "Someone."
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Dude's about to go on trial on 100 different counts of fraud, and what does he say?
He wishes he could have pulled off another one!
Genius!
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Remember, investors:
Musk cheats with his best friends' wives, but NOT on $TSLA's financial statements!
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On this "blow-out quarter," $TSLA operating cash flow was down almost $600M vs. last quarter, despite payables being up $1.146 billion while receivables were only up $393 million.
Yeah, these "earnings" are bullshit.
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None of these circular AI deals would be happening if there were genuine cash demand for the chips at "list price."
It's obvious that the economics of this industry don't work unless the chips are HUGELY discounted, which means the chip MAKERS are hugely OVERVALUED.
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Isn't it fascinating that even after spending weeks mapping A SIMPLE MOVIE STUDIO LOT Tesla STILL didn't feel comfortable giving unsupervised driverless rides last night on a SIMPLE MOVIE STUDIO LOT???
$TSLA remains the biggest bubble-fraud in stock market HISTORY.
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I know you'd love to keep him in the headlines as a distraction but THAT guy lost.
Now we have someone (a nice guy) mentally & physically unsuitable for the job. If he were a Republican you'd be all over it.
That's why media credibility among independents these days is ZERO.
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All joking aside, Musk is CLEARLY hiding SOMETHING by suddenly dropping litigation and offering to pay full price.
There's no way $TWTR wouldn't have settled for, say, $52.
This makes Musk even dirtier than he ALREADY was.
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So $TSLA SG&A was EXACTLY $961M in both Q2 and in Q3, despite selling 90,000 more cars in Q3???
LOL!
Coincidence, mistake or fraud?
Pick one.
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What kind of fucking idiot levers 5:1 to get long an obvious fraud because he thinks he can "squeeze shorts"??? What's his exit strategy???
How did someone that dumb get so rich in the first place? (It can't be ALL "insider trading"!)
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Wow, that's weird! What was it before Putin invaded?
Checks data...
Oh yes: 7.5%
Yup, it's all "Putin," alright!
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I'm increasingly convinced we're in a roughly 18-month bear market since January's peak that by the fall of 2023 will take the S&P down at LEAST 35% from its ATH (to 3130) and more likely 50% (2400).
Look at the bears of 1973-74, 2000-02 & 2007-09.
Thus we're short a ton of $SPY
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A guy at the $TSLA shareholder meeting just said he "became a marine because he wants to help defend Elon's base on Mars."
You can't make this shit up.
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52 years ago we landed men on the moon, and they walked on it and returned in perfect health.
Today the founder of a giant stock promotion will spend a few seconds flying slightly higher than 65 year-old U2 spy planes do every day.
This country is really dumbed down, lol.
$SPCE
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Narrator: buying call options isn’t “investing in America.”
It’s pure short-term insider speculation from the most plugged-in “public servant” in America, and a goddamn fucking DISGRACE.
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When Musk is inevitably removed as the CEO of $TSLA (maybe even this weekend!) it will still just be a car company with fraudulent financials, stalling sales growth and a market cap of around $475 billion.
See you down another 90%!
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I still can't get over the fact that after $TSLA's CEO said they'd have 1M robotaxis on the road LAST YEAR, it's using DRIVERS for a *0.8*-mile taxi in an ISOLATED TUBE with no cross-traffic, pedestrians or weather!
Lol, Musk is the most in-plain-sight fraudster in history!
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Despite 55% (!) of its operating income coming from emission credit sales, $TSLA's operating margin (INCLUDING the credits) was only 6.3%, which among the WORST in the industry!
This is bubble-fraud a car company that should sell at 4x earnings.
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🚨🚨🚨As predicted, Mr. Fraudsperger's just filed 2 massive Form 4s🚨🚨🚨
The motherfuckier started dumping stock the day after the annual meeting when he said $TSLA could be the world's most valuable company and everything was going amazingly.
He is a vile piece of shit.
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Today $TSLA reported an annualized GAAP earnings run-rate of $1.68/share (.42 x 4).
Automakers with similar or better margins and BETTER growth rates currently sell for around 5x earnings.
That makes bubble-fraud Tesla worth around $8.40/share.
No, that is not a misprint.
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"Elon is just a grifter who found some decent engineers a few times."
That may be the single best one-sentence description I've ever seen of him!
No one is surprised. Elon is just a grifter who found some decent engineers a few times.
Tesla will continue to fail. Elon knows he's made his bed with Trump and will be toast when Trump loses.
Over-promise and under-deliver has been Elon's play. Sad.
theguardian.com/business/202…
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Revenge is best served cold.
I think it's time @JeffBezos took a 14.9% stake in $TWTR and forced the board to sue Musk for "specific performance," sending $TSLA into a death-spiral liquidation as Musk tries to come up with the equity.
Just an idea, Jeff!
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$TSLA CFO just now: "Repeating these margins in Q4 will be challenging."
Yeah, because unlike Q3, Q4 is AUDITED.
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I know it's hard (for politicians) to believe, but running $2 trillion annual budget deficits might be inflationary.
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Apparently, shelling a nuclear power plant is good for the price of gold.
This was previously unknown, because NO ONE IN HISTORY WAS EVER FUCKING STUPID ENOUGH TO SHELL A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
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Fun fact:
In Q4 $TSLA recalled twice as many cars as it sold!
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I'm half-listening to this $TSLA scam, but did he just say "Optimus will increase the economy by a factor of 10"???
How on earth is there anyone stupid enough to swallow this stuff???
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1) With 84% of S&P 500 companies having reported as of February 15th, Q4 GAAP earnings came in at just $38.38/share, which annualizes to $153.52.
A 16x multiple on that would put the S&P at just 2456.
TTM GAAP = $171.52. 16x that = 2744.
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There's this rapper tonight at Summerstage named Kenny Beats. Every 10th word out of mouth is "the N word."
Can someone please explain to me why this isn't a terrible societal double-standard?
Community note
That’s not Kenny Beats, it’s Zach Fox. This is stated later in the thread.
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The vast majority of $TSLA's alleged "free cash flow" came from a huge increase in accounts payable.
As usual, this company barely has any REAL free cash flow.
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I just found out Hermès is publicly traded. (I'd always assumed the Hermès family owned it, but they own 67% and most of the rest trades.) Check out the margins on this crack dealer for rich women trying to fill their empty lives with handbags!
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$TSLA has 1.123 billion diluted shares.
That means that at today's closing price of $1023.50 its diluted market cap is approximately $1.15 trillion.
IT IS STILL BY *FAR* THE BIGGEST BUBBLE-GARBAGE-STOCK IN THE HISTORY OF THE STOCK MARKET.
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(Not to mention the fact that it's a $50 billion buyback and the company's total cash balance is $35 billion, lol.)
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We've gotten *killed* this year running VERY net short, yet we remain as net short as we've ever been.
From MANY perspectives, this stock market has the greatest disconnect from reality I've ever seen.
That which cannot continue, won't continue.
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It seems clear as to what fraudster Musk is now doing with $TSLA:
He's essentially putting the car business into "runoff mode" (because once Tesla had real competition he couldn't handle it) and is betting everything on maintaining a massive market cap based on FSD vaporware.
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This fucking guy (Musk) just lies and lies about "driverless autonomy" that $TSLA is nowhere NEAR creating and CAN'T create with the existing (no LiDAR or radar) hardware, and every sell-side analyst just plays along on the call as if it's coming next Tuesday.
TOTAL SCAM.
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Narrator:
Elon Musk prides himself on never, ever, ever settling lawsuits.
He paid this woman $250,000.
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I've often wondered if $TSLA is like Worldcom, with phony profitability making all the auto OEMs wonder why THEY can't be as "profitable as Tesla" in EVs, & thinking something was wrong with THEIR companies (the same way Worldcom did to other telecom companies in the early 2000s)
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This is incredible!
Apparently Tesla downgraded the brake calipers on the "Performance" Model Y to the same size as on the regular Y, but put a fake cover over them to make it LOOK as if it hadn't done that!!!
$TSLA is truly the world's scummiest company!
h/y: @BradMunchen
As we took delivery of our 2023 Model Y last month. At some point Tesla decided to put caliper covers on the Performance Y. What does that mean? It's a smaller caliper and a smaller rotor which is the same on LR. So now you are just paying for the same brakes just red.
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I just want to say that $TSLA operating margin was *500*bp (5%!) lower than the year-ago quarter when it sold >200,000 FEWER cars.
TESLA IS JUST ANOTHER CAR COMPANY.
CAR COMPANIES GET SINGLE-DIGIT PE MULTIPLES.
THAT IS ALL.
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"Elon Musk: Tesla boss praises Chinese workers and says Americans try ‘to avoid going to work at all": finance.yahoo.com/finance/ne…
And that, my far-right "friends," is your new hero.
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Hey Chamath,
In case this drug doesn't work, can you get a discount on an Uyghur replacement?
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When does Musk try to stop $TSLA's death spiral by vowing to "quit politics & return to Tesla full-time to save the company"?
Of course it's a shitty car company that's beyond saving, but having studied the scumbag for a decade, I wouldn't be surprised if he announces this soon.
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$TSLA is a fraud through and through.
It's been obvious to many of us for years, and nothing will be funnier than hearing the wailing shareholders screaming how "no one could have seen it coming."
It sure seems like the Optimus robots at Tesla's event were under human control electrek.co/2024/10/11/it-su…
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I usually avoid tweeting THIS kind of political stuff but this Greenwald piece is remarkable.
With just a handful of exceptions (mostly Murdoch-owned stuff), America's media companies are now 100% dishonest re covering Democrats (and, of course, climate). It's all "advocacy."
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Did anyone notice that on tonight's $TSLA call the execs acknowledged that "the team" is working hard to fix all the "robotaxi" software problems before they CARRY CUSTOMERS IN 60 DAYS.
Do you realize how INSANE that is from a safety/testing standpoint???
Musk is a PSYCHOPATH.
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Gold selling off on a hot CPI report (because of fear of higher rates) is the wrong LONG-TERM move.
The market will gradually realize that central banks will NEVER raise rates enough to slay inflation, which means that the higher the CPI number, the better gold will do.
$GLD
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I just want to point out one thing in advance of tomorrow's $TSLA scamshow:
Tesla doesn't have even ONE mile testing a driverless robotaxi on public roads.
Not
One
Single
Mile
That is all.
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One thing puzzling me after last week's awful $TSLA earnings report:
Who is now the incremental buyer of that stock? It's certainly no longer a "growth" or ESG investor, and I assume that the idiot cult is maxed out.
Is it mostly Musk, jamming it up illegally via call options?
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Guy who used Twitter to tweet the largest securities fraud in American corporate history is now on the board of Twitter.
Welcome to 21st century American securities law enforcement, where $50k insider-traders go to jail and billionaire fraudsters tell the SEC to suck his cock!
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It's absolutely astounding that on 9/30 $TSLA had capitalized "Construction in progress" on its balance sheet of $4.5 billion, despite holding "grand openings" for its only 2 big construction projects (the Texas & Berlin factories) *6 months* earlier.
This company is a fraud.
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This is HILARIOUS!!!
Apparently the crown prince bought a bunch of $TWTR in the open market last week when he though Musk was buying the company, then dumped it all today at a loss!!!
Sooner or later, EVERYONE gets Musked!
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***China tariffs likely coming down to between 50% and 65% - WSJ.***
Only 50% to 65%???
That's an absolute bargain!
Business will come ROARING back!
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Hey, I have a question:
If an army of home-invaders overwhelms Elon Musk's private security force and gang-rapes him, steals his possessions, and blows up his house, should he forget about it and negotiate a settlement?
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“Hear me out on this one: we’ll connect 100 separate containers on rails, but instead of needing 100 people to drive them we’ll do it with just TWO! We’ll call it…. a FREIGHT TRAIN!”
“It’s a great invention! Just like Elon’s ‘tunnel”!
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$TSLA's manipulated Q3 "free cash flow":
Claimed: +$2742
-$424 drawdown in receivables
-$1598 increase in payables
-$985 increase in deferred liabilities
=*Negative* $265 million
Great business you've got there, Elon!
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You're about to see HUGE, MARGIN-DESTROYING $TSLA price cuts WORLDWIDE!
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I am now officially on the lookout for Morgan Stanley-filed Musk $TSLA Form 4s.
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And there it is:
The part of $TSLA he said is worth $500 billion is COMPLETELY GONE, yet there is NO change to his absurd price target.
This clinches it:
Adam Jonas and his bucket-shop employer Morgan Stanley are currently the biggest crooks on Wall Street.
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Good thing this is "an AI robot company" (with no AI robots) and not a "declining car company with a PE of 170"!
$TSLA
Q4 2024
Production: approx. 459,445
Deliveries: 495,570
Energy storage deployments: 11 GWh
A record for both deliveries & deployments
–
Full year 2024
Production: 1,773,443
Deliveries: 1,789,226
Energy storage deployments: 31.4 GWh
→ ir.tesla.com/press-release/t…
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