I talk to thousands of LPs every year. Here's what I'm seeing right now when it comes to how they're approaching VC. 1) Late-stage co-investments have never been hotter. The top 5-7 names have effectively *unlimited* demand. And that supply/demand imbalance has created three real issues: First, the question of *true* access. Many of the SPVs floating around for these companies are not sanctioned by these companies. Buyer beware. These companies are tight on their cap tables, and access can be gated beyond just capacity. The fee creep is getting egregious. Someone shared with me recently that for a top AI lab, a group was charging 15% upfront, 20% carry, and 30% over a 2X. At those economics, you can take what would be a generational company but a bad investment. Fees are the silent killer of returns in late-stage co-invest, and this risk is now being focused on the logo, but ignoring the fee effects. Additionally, for those who aren't getting access to the top companies must go a tier (or two) below. Very dangerous in a high-intensity / valuation market for AI. As I've mentioned, there will be a lot of expensive mistakes made as we figure out what winners will look like in the future. 2) Capital is flowing to large, established brands. This is the clearest trend right now. LPs are concentrating on the top multi-stage and Series A firms. The logic is straightforward: these are easier to underwrite, and given how extreme the power law has become, investors want exposure to the trophy assets soon after investing. If you're a top 10-20 brand, you're oversubscribed, sometimes in multiples. If you're not, the fundraising environment is a different world. 3) Emerging and emerged managers are in the toughest spot, with a notable exception. Spinouts from top firms and operators with strong brands are moving fast and generally very oversubscribed. For everyone else, the bar has never been higher. I think this is actually where the opportunity is for LPs If they have the time/expertise to do so. The issue isn't that LPs don't know this. Most do. The problem is twofold: the time and difficulty of sourcing and diligencing emerging managers is real, and the hangover from 2019-2021 is still very present. A lot of people tried VC during that era who probably shouldn't have, and the failure rate on those Fund 1s has made the entire segment harder to navigate. Matching supply and demand here has become nearly impossible. Supply (Managers) far exceeds demand due to the issues noted.

I can attest that I’ve learned more in 90 days running a startup than I did in 6 years between undergrad and my mba.

Crazy day. After 22 years between SVB and FRB, I'm still at shock. My wife also works at SVB right now. The news today was huge, and here is what I've pieced together across 100's of conversations yesterday/today. 🧵

A lot of panic re: SVB (you should see my phone/emails!). A bank run driven by panic is the real risk here, not the action of selling LT securities at loss I have no inside information as I left SVB in 2012, but know enough about banking to piece together. Quick 🧵

VC and tech twitter has really deteriorated to a point where shit-posting is like 80% of the material.

Writing effective cold emails is an underrated, but insanely effectively skill to learn early on in a career.

I just logged on to Twitter and see doom and gloom in VC/Tech Twitter, including some long threads. As a founder (or investor), wartime operating is where you make your hay. I've been through 3 cycles. Relax.

Emerging managers, what stack are you using to run your firm? Fund admin: Audit/tax: Legal: Banking: LP pipeline: Crm: Email: Deal pipe: Other: We will combine and report on most common

Becoming a new seed VC: Perception: Investing in cool startups,having status, making a ton of $$$ Reality: Constant juggle of fundraising (and rejections) and IR, endless pitch mtgs, solving port problems,working with service providers, being in neg cash flow

I never really understood age-ism (either direction) in startup or vc land. But it is still prevalent I’m now 46 and have more energy and ambition than i did when i was 30.

Wow. Really @WSJ ? "I'm not saying 12 white men would have avoided this mess, but the company may have been distracted by diversity demands" How was this published?

Big personal news. After 21 years in banking, I'm moving on and starting a new chapter as an entrepreneur. Excited to tell everyone about it soon! samirkaji.medium.com/im-star…

Another career tip to learn early: Learn to write. Hone the skill every day. Get comfortable writing to bigger (and more public) groups. If forces cohesive thought, enables effective one to many interactions, and can be therapeutic once you get highly proficient

My convo with a HNW LP the other day: LP: I'm tired of looking at seed funds. Most won't lead, and just follow signals or trends. Me: Have you heard of "XYZ" fund? they are independent thinkers & are raising: LP: Nice, how much have they closed, and who else is in? Sigh

15/ Heartbreaking, and it could have been avoided, both by different strategic decisions by SVB (and better messaging), but also if the VC community hadn't turned so aggressively against SVB. They would have been ok if the run didn't happen. Prisoners dilemma at work

Venture capital is LONG term asset class that tends to overreact to short term disruptions. Stay focused on long term. Panic is why people miss great companies and funds.

Common themes of successful VCs I've observed from meeting with 1000+ VC's 1/Playing the "game" they can win, and not getting moved into a game that plays into someone else's strengths 2/ Ok with being on an island (non-consensus) and being wrong cont/

I'm now seeing emails from various firms imploring their companies to move all cash to a top 4 bank (including from FRB, Signature, etc). This type of panic will break the system, is frankly, very dangerous. However, a few things to think about: 🧵

Invest in people early. Don't wait until they've made it to be kind and helpful. Rinse and repeat. Still the best piece of career advice I received early in my career. So much more fulfilling to rise with great people.

Over 1200 emerging VC firms in the US formed over last 11 years. Next two years will separate hobbyists from long term practitioners. This is not a bad thing.

Hard to believe but firms like Forerunner, Craft, A16Z, Ribbit, DCVC, Goodwater, Lowercase, 8VC, Susa, etc. didn't even exist going into the last downturn. It'll be exciting to see what the next generation of top VC will look like.

I just spoke to a LP who was evaluating a fund manager, and they mentioned how they were disappointed that the manager "only" had averaged a 26% net IRR across their last 5 funds (lots of it realized). To put in it perspective, you double your money ever 3 years at 26%.

The best round of capital ever is that first paying customer.

Building a great venture firm can start small, and it's totally ok: Fund 1's of some managers you may be familiar with: Lux: $10MM Floodgate: $10MM DCVC: $6MM Uncork: $1MM Felicis: $5MM Haystack: $1MM Focus on running a marathon, not a 40 yard dash.

Glad the @theallinpod & @DavidSacks covered venture debt in the last ep. It definitely is something founders get wrong too often. I was a venture debt lender in 99/00. For founders, here is a quick primer:

Venture LPs are rarely active as contributors on VC twitter, but they sure are watching/listening 👀

Why isn’t there a better LinkedIn yet?

3 banks JPM, Bank of america, wells control 43% of US deposits.... But lets worry about adobe's acquisition of Figma as a threat in the design world.

Updated list of Micro-VC funds (sub-$100MM/seed list). Let us (me or @hanayang ) know others that should or shouldn't be here! docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

5/ And, this was the quickest bank run ever, as it was nearly all digital. In the "old" days, bank runs were slower as it took in person visits/phone calls. When so many deposits move out, it puts pressure on the asset based of securities/loans to cover

Excited to announced the Venture Unlocked podcast, which focuses exclusively on the starting/operating of a vc firm.Let's bring more informed & diverse capital to founders! Recording starts in 3 weeks,& have great guests lined up Sign up here for updates! ventureunlocked.substack.com…

As an angel investor, I'm seeing more memos vs pitch decks as ever before (seed). Personally, I like them better. Better substance, less design fluff.

I'm getting closer to launching my podcast focused on the art of starting, building, and scaling a great and durable venture firm. Will cover fundraising, team building, differentiation, port. construction, and culture. Stay tuned for updates in the coming weeks!

Finally! Here is the list of LP's that are investing in underrepresented VC mgrs (actively looking or a direct mandate).thx to those that helped crowdsource! airtable.com/shrZ7Bh1Is8ElFG… If you are a LP (or know one) & interested in being added,see below. airtable.com/shrEqKWbqyu7Sle…

Power Law in VC is immutable. In seed, it's almost impossible to return a 3X+ w/o at least 1 company returning the fund (or a 50-100X the capital invested in said company).It's the calculus every investor is using when evaluating any invesment ("can it become a fund returner")?

for those raising a sub-$50MM fund, here are the types of potential LPs, ranked by probability type (and often length of allocation decision). 3&4 are close 1 High Net Worth individuals 2 Single FO 3 Fund of Funds/RIA/multi FO 4 Foundations/strategics 5 Endowments 6Pensions

A lot of people have asked me what we are up to. I want to formally introduce our new company, Allocate to the world! Sign up here to stay updated allocate.co/ along with a bit about us! samirkaji.medium.com/introdu… cc: @hanayang

For VC's: What is the best piece of advice you could give an aspiring new VC that you wish you had before you started (feel like a lot of snarky "don't do it" comments will follow :))?

A few ppl have asked me why I am spending so much time on SVB 1) It's personal. I was at SVB, and my wife is there. 2) Regional banks are strategically important to our economy 3) The level of misinformation/bad advice by the industry is reckless 4) I care about the ppl affected

Best thing about conferences? Name badge stalkers: Person walks by and looks straight at you. Looks at your name-badge Makes quick assessment of importance Walks away as if they didn't see you. *Sigh*

There are 771 unicorns globally. Sequoia is in 92 of them (per @CBinsights). That's 12%. Insane to have that kind of market share of runaway companies.

I have no clue why I say "please" every time I ask ChatGPT to do something.

The last 10 years have spoiled a lot of investors and skewed venture expectations. I've had both GPs and LPs this week casually say that 5x net is a reasonable benchmark for seed stage firms. Why is this unreasonable? Let's look at the math. 🧵

16/But no one can really blame a startup or a VC to not want to take a chance of being the last to react. Sad news all around. And many of the contagion worries about certain other banks are frankly misinformed.

July 2011 - 161 VC funds in market targeting $24.5B in commitments July 2019 - 1,004 VC funds in market targeting $95B in commitments

5 months into remote work - Zoom fatigue is real; 4/day is max & no back2backs - Onboarding new ppl is hard - Productivity drain comes from burnout,not lack of engagement - I've now do 10-15K steps per day and use to catch up on podcasts or just think.very helpful others?

Have now been through 600+ venture fund raises with managers (and LP's). The fundraising process is broken & inefficient due to fairly identifiable reasons. Working on something cool here to help solve for some of these issues. Excited to announce fairly soon.

We are excited to announce our $5MM Seed round from a wonderful set of investors! We are excited to have the capital to build a product and team necessary to solve the many friction points that exist in private fund allocating (& raising). techcrunch.com/2021/07/22/al…

A big mistake that many LPs make when investing is being tourists in VC; piling in when times are red-hot & vacate when times cool. VC is the longest of long-only asset classes and is cyclical; Better to moderate deployment over time and not overreact to up (or down) cycles

📢Big news at @joinallocate - We just closed our Series A! cc: @hanayang businessinsider.com/allocate…

Venture studio models are Really hard to execute, but when they work, boy do THEY work. Still a small part of venture universe. Who are your favorite venture studios?

Public investing: sign up on Robinhood and get started in 7 minutes Invest in a vc fund: please fill out this 33 page sub doc that no one understands.

For new managers, don’t be cavalier when speaking about “expected performance” I see too many managers throw out 3-5X like it’s nothing. 3X+ net is top decile in nearly every vintage year in history (in most cases, it’s upper, upper top decile). possible but hard. Thread start/

Someone asked me the other day the one skill that most great VCs have. My answer? Storytelling It's also a skill that far too many don't spend enough time honing.

I'm starting a podcast focused on main aspects of running a venture fund (with emphasis on fundraising, building infrastructure, ops). Anyone have tips on great equipment, best practices?

The myth in vc: the funds that don’t want you are the only ones you want to invest in. The truth: many of the most interesting and successful early managers are undiscovered and accessible. I’ve worked with most of these managers over the last 12 years and 100pct true

Venture Fund of Funds have been a great source of capital for venture managers for decades & are often the group that Emerging Managers speak with when raising. However,it’s important to have visibility into the business model/process/allocation styles. Some basic thoughts/

Just a reminder for those raising a new emerging fund, remember: - easily requires hundreds of meetings - feedback loop is almost non existent - no great way to prove differentiation or show traction -18+ month avg time -getting ghosted after multiple “great” calls is normal

If you had to invest all your capital into one emerging vc firm, Outside of your own firm, who would it be and why?

VC compensation for Emerging GPs is interesting to look at. A $30MM Fund I might charge a 2.5% Management fee in the early years ($750K). Let's say GP + One Associate. Taking out management company expenses (rent, tools and services, employees, mgmt co account, misc), probably leaves ~$350K for GP / ~$200K post tax. But when accounting for GP commit (1-2%) the GP will also have $75K-$100K in outgoing cash flow from capital calls (assuming a management fee offset is not used), for a net take-home of $100K-$125K per year.

Celebrating 47!

I do understand why inst Lps focus on throwing capital at big brands, however imagine having been early in firms like IA, founder collective, dcvc, forerunner, felicis, initialized, first round etc. venture is risky inherently. Emerging vc should be part of Every Lps fund model

I'm more convinced today than ever that venture capital will be the most important asset category in the world going forward. Cycles will occur and the mega-bubble of 2021 will washout returns, but this is the only class that meaningfully will drive societal transformation

Tough time to raise a fund, but if you do, the next few years should be an amazing time to deploy.

1/Now that the SVB auction is live, know that we believe them to be a very attractive purchase given relationships and core business. I expect that both banks and private capital will bid and there will be a lot of bids

Myths in VC that should be retired: - Only top quartile funds are worth investing in - Emerging managers are inexperienced - Every manager with a big portfolio is "spray and pray"

Fundraising as a fund manager is tough for 90% of firms of the market. As I've mentioned, we are extremely likely to move into the hardest fundraising cycle I've seen since 2008. So, what to do in these markets to understand/adapt? 🧵

I haven't take more than 9 days off in nearly 15 years (& off for me means 70-80% off). I'm going to take about 3 weeks away in February at nearly 100% to recharge. Any tips on how to truly recharge during that time (maybe 3 weeks isn't enough)?

My favorite thing about VC LinkedIn is the work experience sections that are longer than CVS receipts

In case you've missed VC twitter the last month or so: -SPACS -Miami -NFT's -Clubhouse Welcome back.

Since everyone has thoughts on the market & VC, thought I'd share our recent newsletter (we also compiled some great resources and data from @DavidSacks @CBinsights @fintechjunkie @cartainc) ventureunlocked.substack.com…

Most people have no clue how rare a 5x fund in vc is. Reading all the rhetoric about how a portfolio of small funds will somehow result in an easy 4-5x is not realistic. 5x+ funds are essentially unicorns

Putting a projected fund return of 5X+ in a venture fund deck is equivalent to getting a pitch deck from a company stating that it will be the next unicorn. It could happen, but it equivocates to naivete (Fun fund question: what % of venture funds do you think hit 5X+?)

3 things every VC fund deck should address: -Why you will see the most interesting companies and entrepreneurs within your thesis -Why entrepreneurs will take your capital versus other investors (ability to win based on value add) -Why you are uniquely positioned for the model

Areas in VC where I think are points of stability - Be a tier 1 large AUM platform, and see everything. - Be a specialist enabling non consensus - Be small and early and invest before things are obvious Need to be in at *least*one. Mid size generalist likely danger zone

A few tips for emerging Vc -Don't get cute with fees & deviate off 2/20 (creates noise). 2.5% during inv. period ok. -Don't offer up GP economics or reduced fees unless big anchor type(i.e. 15%+ of fund 1) -Premium carry, even w/hurdles are hard -Don't offer contractual co-invest

I just went through my email and notes in 2019; I met with 227 people starting brand new VC firms this year. Shocking for me because I thought it was more than that.

For what it's worth, I'm very bullish on seed funds focused on markets outside of SV. This isn't meant to be anti-SV at all, but just strong belief in future of non-SV tech hubs (i.e PNW, Austin, Colorado, Minny, Pitt, Atlanta, DC, etc).

We are building a database of the top inst. LPs (or non-inst FO's that have been public) focused on diverse manager investing (and by focused, I mean putting capital to work). I'll compile and share publicly.

There was a time not to long ago when investing in VC had one flavor, but now there are so many different options with widely different characteristic & profiles (the below isn't meant to fully comprehensive and of course there are other sub-categories). Very exciting times.

Spoke to 6 different VCs today who mentioned they are slowing down investing and have raised the bar for net new deals I think this is actually a good thing and healthy

I know there are scout programs & some large VC firms invest in seed managers. But if you are a Series A fund w/good AUM to afford it, wouldn't it make sense to set up a seed VC co-work space/VC incubator to get a first look at great seed to A companies?

Pattern recognition in VC is important (whether investing in companies or funds), but requires people to continuously and *consciously* question it. If not, the personal algorithm becomes replete with biases, rigidity, and is unamenable to new types of ideas & people.

Over the last few days, our team has had 200+ email and phone inquiries about the CARES act, and specifically around what it means for early stage VC backed startups. A lot of confusion out there, so here is what I know as of now: /Thread

LPs are moving to risk-off in VC, meaning passing emerging managers in favor of established. Data showed this in 22'. For Emerging Managers, there are ways to be more successful in raising, which requires being able to answer the "why" Short🧵

For seed VC's raising, I see too many slides focus on high level thesis/market strategy. More time should be spent discussing why *You* are uniquely positioned to win. *You* are the product,strategy is meaningless unless you can demonstrate what the product/market fit is.

False VC narrative: VC's just just golf and go on vacations. Maybe true for small %, but those that are seed VCs and VCs are at newer firms in particular are some of the hardest working and scrappy ppl I've ever met outside of founders.

That’s VC’s r all wealthy is one of the biggest myths ever. SOME are filthy rich but vast majority have all wealth tied up in illiquid uncertain shares and very small pct have ever seen meaningful carry check.Not saying anyone shld feel sorry but funny when it’s offered as gospel

1/ So, this AM California state regulators put the bank in receivership under FDIC control. This has created a spiral in the banking industry overall, although it is clear to many of us the issues at Silvergate & SVB are very idiosyncratic.

Math note on the importance of recycling in venture: For a fund to provide a 3X net return to LPs but doesn't recycle a single $ would need to provide a ~4.6X return on invested capital.

A Data driven thread on the state of VC today, which we characterize as a "Tale of Two Cities" So much data seemingly conflicts of whether things are "back" or whether things are dire (Hint: It's both, but with qualifiers). It's a long thread, but packed with data 🧵

I think LP's that will not under any condition invest in Fund 1's are making a massive, massive mistake. GP/LP Alignment, fund sizing, and inherent hustle required by manager all outweigh risk (which many are perceived).

I still talk to LPs who can't get over the solo GP model. I remind them: - Partnership dysfunction risk >>>> Someone getting hit by bus (and protections built into LPA). - At early stages, firm brand is really GP personal brand - Performance of solo GP funds has been very good

Investors in VC should seek returns that are 6%+ to public market. Using @PitchBook for vintages 97-2021 Median VC: +3.6% average annual to public market average Top quartile: +10.2% Top decile: +31.2% Bottom quartile: -6.6% Bottom decile: -15.6% Asset quality.

4/ Now it is absolutely not the responsibility of the clients (VC/startups) to prop up a bank. But the reaction will create consequences that are far greater than what would have happened by not moving en masse.

Pro tip: Never underestimate those that are perpetually underestimated.

LP's: The 2/20 model needs to go When a GP attempts to bring a model that is different than 2/20 LP: "Hmm, something must be wrong for them to get creative with economics" not all LP's of course think like this, but I've heard this far too often

It still surprises me to see so many new fund managers not fully grasp the intensity of operating a venture firm. Like I’ve said before, running a firm has parallels to running any company. You just are writing checks not code.

About 85–90% of the funds I see are having unbelievable difficulty raising (just came across a quality emerging manager that I thought would raise in 6 months or less, but it's now month 22 of their raise). This is especially true for emerging managers that aren’t spinouts. But the other 10–15% of VCs? I'm seeing these firms raise faster than ever. Single closes, substantially oversubscribed, often wrapped up in 4 months or less from data room open to final close. It's the biggest dispersion of fundraising difficulty I’ve seen, maybe ever. That said, I’ve noticed that the quality of new EMs raising (not just spinouts) in the last 18 months is significantly higher in general than what we saw in 2019–2021. Capital-constrained periods result in real practitioners launching and staying with it. LPs that went in hard in 19-21 are probably still dealing with the aftermath, but there are some really strong EMs coming to market, which is really exciting.

Huge - and anyone thinkimg there was no contagion can read this and signature and know that was wrong wsj.com/articles/first-repub…

Venture Debt is very cheap these days, but 4 common mistakes I see founders & investors make: 1)Agnostic about the lender; it matters more than you think 2)Conflate w/equity 3)Take too much; limit to ~30% of recent funding 4)Not having clear visibility to next round milestones