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Happy Yankees Elimination Day 2025. Sixteen years, 0 championships, despite Brian Cashman annually averaging the second-highest payroll and spending $3.9 billion.
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I don’t know how anyone can watch postseason baseball and think anything other than trading Devers was a horrific, pathetic mistake that set the Sox back tremendously.
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We've witnessed a lot of playoff performances here, and Duran's has to be near the worst.
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Hopefully this winter the Red Sox acquire a middle of the order beast of a DH, the kind of freak bat that is impervious to October octane, the kind every Red Sox team that has ever brought happiness has had.
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Passan's intel from last month
Imai: 6 yrs, ~$140M
Murakami: $150M–$200M+
Okamoto: $50+ million
Tucker: ~$400M
Schwarber: 4 yrs, ~$120M
Bregman: 5+ yrs, ~$175M–$200M
Bellinger: $100M+
Bichette: $250M–$300M range
Valdez: $100M+
Cease: Short term w/ opt outs, or huge $
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Refsnyder's 463' homer is the 7th longest Red Sox home run tracked by statcast.
478 Bradley Jr.
474 Cordero
469 Ramirez
467 Arroyo
467 Devers
465 O'Neill
463 Refsnyder
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I love every time a starter is used in relief of the playoffs, gets me reminiscing about the fortitude of the 2018 starters and the masterful usage.
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Watching in real time someone figure out how to use the six infinity stones in unison.
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Do I want Pete Alonso? Yes. Does he completely contradict every action and word this front office has said about the DH spot for the last two years Also yes. Is he basically unplayably bad at first base with his defense and throwing yips? Unfortunately, yes.
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I can't get over the Blue Jays strikeout and power combo this postseason. Unreal.
Death to athletic and versatile, give me all the mutants that hit nukes.
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Crochet got 1st place Cy votes from both New York writers, one in Texas, one in Toronto.
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Yankees lined up Max Fried and Carlos Rodon for Games 1 and 2 of the Wild Card round. Since the All-Star break, the Red Sox rank 26th against left-handed pitching with an 81 wRC+.
The Yankees rank 1st with a 120 wRC+ against lefties, including 5 regulars at 130+.
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“There is just something about a bat in the middle of the lineup that forces another team to game plan against it that has a compounding effect on the rest of the roster.”
Craig Breslow’s Red Sox wish list: Middle-of-order bat, No. 1B starter: bostonglobe.com/2025/11/10/s…
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Judge is heading into the postseason coming off one of the best batted ball months in the history of baseball. His September was the 7th best quality of contact month in statcast history out of 12,000+ individual months. There is simply no way he doesn't perform this October.
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20 of Masataka Yoshida's last 33 batted balls have been hard hit, while he's 13 for 32 (.406) with 3 doubles, 1 home run, 0 strikeouts.
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Here is the average projected contract from Baseball America, Fangraphs crowdsource, Britton, and Clemens.
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In what has to rank very highly on the annoyance index, Sox batters had the least chase of any team in the first round... but in 108 PA, they only produced 3 doubles and 1 home run, and had the highest percentage of poorly hit balls, 45 of 65, 69%. No juice.
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Wilyer Abreu had a .303 xwOBA vs. LHP, which ranked 43rd/101 in LHH vs. LHP.
Roman Anthony ranked 50th/101 and Jarren Duran ranked 57th/101, both getting much more opportunity.
Basically 5 players total stand out in this split, Abreu should get a full-time role in 2026.
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Most Red Sox offseasons feel like clear needs, and multiple clear paths to remedy. This year, that’s true for a #2 behind Crochet — but the position player mix, needs/improvement areas, and shown/stated preferences seem like no clear alignment and could be messy to fix.
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The Red Sox need for a middle of the order bat this winter is in addition to retaining Alex Bregman. The quotes coming out of the GM meetings are not making that double dip seem likely.
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While no one else is doing much of anything offensively, Trevor Story is trying his best to drag the Red Sox to the finish line. He is nearly 7 runs above average with his bat in September.
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NY beat seem to think the Yankees are playing their lefties tonight. Early this season in totality against LHH: .145/.233/.221, 34% K%
In the majors he's thrown his two fastballs against LHH half the time, the majority of them heart of the plate, with no damage done. Bit risky.
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As hot stove season looms, someone in Boston media should try to go full Pablo Torre-mode on just how influential Theo Epstein really is with the Sox, especially on major player acquisition.
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Garrett Whitlock had meltdown performances on April 30, May 4, 9, and 13.
Since then, he has an MLB-best 26 shutdowns to 2 meltdowns ratio, an MLB-best 3.3 Win Probability Added, the second-best Runs Above Average, 0 home runs allowed, a 1.29 ERA, and a 1.83 FIP.
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To me, one the dumber arguments in baseball is "they did better without him."
Red Sox win % without Devers in the lineup: 58%
Red Sox win % without Bregman in the lineup: 58%
Red Sox win % without either in the lineup: 62%
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Romy Gonzalez ranks 1st/280 in RBI Percentage in MLB.
156 runners have been on-base when he came to bat, 34 have been batted in, that 21.8% is the highest percentage in baseball.
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When you wait for years to see Perales' fastball on one of these, and the day comes, and it looks like this. Oh baby.
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The amount of brain drain going on with the Sox, self-inflicted or otherwise, is insane. The scouting department is evaporated.
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The best thing a $415M payroll can buy is the ability to baby 4 aces and a lineup of players 30+ to health in October.
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Story, Bregman, Eaton, Sogard, Yoshida:
13 for 30
Duran, Rafaela, Gonzalez, Narvaez, Refsnyder, Lowe, Abreu:
1 for 34
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I don’t know how else you look at that agreement besides Duran’s agent thought the Sox were going to easily beat them in an arbitration hearing after not picking up their 8M option on him.
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The best rolling trends in baseball are Roman Anthony's launch angle and the average distance on his hard hit balls.
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Every new "2026 Red Sox roster" I see someone post seems to have the Sox acquiring like 40% of the good players projected to be available via FA+Trades this winter, and the lineup still ends up looking sketchy.
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Sounds likely that Kristian Campbell is going to go into next season as a full-time outfielder and not bounce around between positions:
bostonglobe.com/2025/11/11/s…
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We just passed the 13th anniversary of when the Red Sox were one of three teams that had the chance to convince 18-year-old Shohei Ohtani to sign
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Every Bello issue talking point for the last month is shining through tonight. Lack of whiffs. No strikeouts. Cutter being bad. Lefties torching him.
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In an era where the nastiest relief pitchers you've ever seen are seemingly coming off conveyor belts, the Sox long-term inability to produce home-grown reliable middle relievers is baffling.
Red Sox Designate Luis Guerrero For Assignment dlvr.it/TP6mQx
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A lot of pitching can be boiled down to simply K-BB%, and there isn't a clearer indicator of how badly the Red Sox need to acquire someone to slot in behind Crochet this offseason.
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Ben Rice vs RHP cutters this year
9 for 27, 3 2B, 4 HR, .333 BA, .889 SLG, 35% barrel
Bello's cutter in September
6 for 24, 2 2B, 2 HR, .250 BA, .625 SLG, 20% barrel
First pitch Ben Rice sees is a cutter
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Every story last year about how if the Red Sox were serious they would sign Soto and avoid long term deals for Bregman and Alonso should probably just be recycled with Soto’s name crossed out and Tucker’s put in.
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Kyle Tucker
June 2024, fractured shin from foul ball
June 2025, fractured hand from a slide
Sept 2025, left calf strain
Kyle Tucker when he plays
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Option 4: trade your entire outfield, Mayer, and your entire farm system for him, dump as much as possible, sign Tucker, and reboot your franchise with Crochet, Skenes, Tucker, Anthony.
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MLB's back open for business. Everyone's talking big free agent bats and pitcher trades for the Sox, but Ranger Suarez has been the most bandied about guy. Interesting to see if a recent conversation shift from Duran v. Abreu to Duran v. Rafaela is real.
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I was fine with bunting. Even though bunting 1st & 2nd, 0 out, to 2nd & 3rd, 1 out, only increases the generic odds of scoring from 63% to 68%... fast runner to 3rd, Cruz split is wild, you feel good about Sogard/Yoshida contact.
The 2 bunt attempts in the LH batters box BRUTAL.
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I've been looking at the potentially available starting pitching group and got to MacKenzie Gore. WTF is this? From afar, I thought I was going to be looking at a surefire-2 / budding ace. This is insanity.
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Early doesn't have Tolle's fastball - who does - but he has a better current array of secondary pitches that he can control and get whiffs with (31% whiff vs RHH on his CH, SL, CU). He's been working with 6 pitches. Holding velocity has been a question.
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Duran: 29, 3 yrs control, 73M surplus on baseball trade values
Abreu: 26: 4 yrs control, 33M surplus on baseball trade values
Every piece of information I've heard over the last year would lead me to hypothesize that, in actuality, right now both are probably around 50 surplus.
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Washington is assembling the pre-Breslow Red Sox scouting Avengers.
Source confirms that Pirates director of amateur scouting Justin Horowitz is moving to the Nationals to become an assistant general manager.
Horowitz was with the Pirates for two years and oversaw the drafting of No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin.
@JoeDoyleMiLB first with the news
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Since being moved to Triple-A, Campbell ranks 13th/167 in Poor contact and 143rd/167 in Barrel + Solid contact among AAA hitters.
96th/146 quality of contact in July
126th/146 quality of contact in August
There should be a deep dive into what's going on.
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Thinking about the state of the roster and this offseason, the only thing that seems clear is that either this gets remedied and the Red Sox start doing business as business is being done, or there is little chance of being a contender anytime soon.
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Schlittler gave up the same amount of hits and runs in his first 5 games that he has in his last 9. He's basically eliminated homers, but still gives up a ton of air contact.
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No matter how you slice it, the lack of any dominance behind Crochet last year was ridiculous, until Early's cup of coffee at the end.
Every dot is a Red Sox starter's month over the last 5 seasons, with 2025 labeled.
This is Craig Breslow talking about what he is prioritizing other than the middle of the order hitter:
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Sox fighting and clawing for every run
Red Sox quality of contact
7th — before all-star break
18th — after all-star break
Red Sox barrel rate
5th — before all-star break
25th — after all-star break
Red Sox isolated power
5th — before all-star break
23rd — after all-star break
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Duran dropped from $73M to $49M surplus on baseball trade values in the last few days, for anyone that likes to post those hypothetical trade screenshots from that site.
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Tolle's changeup has been in the zone 23% of the time in AAA+MLB. Lg avg for SP is 39%. Tolle will need it to combat stacked RH lineups. There are some v good SP that use their change near that zone%, but they keep them around edges w less waste. This next dev step will pay huge.
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Take a Red Sox offseason survey; results tomorrow
forms.gle/kaYS1Lrmmoycy2u3A
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Did anyone notice what Zach Ehrhard and James Tibbs (Devers trade) did after they were traded for Dustin May (28 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.69 WHIP)?
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MLB's best quality of contact since the All Star break
1 .606 Shohei Ohtani
2 .572 Kyle Schwarber
3 .550 Roman Anthony
4 .533 Nick Kurtz
5 .527 Dansby Swanson
6 .505 Julio Rodriguez
7 .503 Rafael Devers
(min. 75 batted balls)
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Red Sox right-handed stacked lineup is hitting dribblers to the left side of the infield while Fried is not showing them an inside pitch.
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Chapman, Whitlock and Slaten have combined to allowed 3 of 34 inherited runners to score this year, 9%.
All other Red Sox relievers have combined to allowed 64 of 168 inherited runners to score, 38%.
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Rodon’s past month looks a lot like what Fried did to the Sox last night: absolute dominance with swing-and-miss stuff on his breaking and offspeed pitches. However, hitters have been able to get to his fastball a bit, particularly with plenty of contact in the air.
Red Sox have 15 whiffs on 23 swings against breaking and off speed pitches.
1 whiff on 18 swings against fastballs.
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I have no idea what Story is going to do. I think he could easily gain $15M+ guaranteed on a new deal, even if his AAV decreases.
The most interesting, unmentioned factor about his decision I’ve heard so far is:
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If a pitcher is coming to Fenway Park, which ones give up Air Pull to right-handed batters?
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After Duran's breakout 2024, Steamer projections had him coming back to Earth in 2025. They aren't seeing much of a change for 2026.
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October 2025 Survey Results
redsoxstats.substack.com/p/o…
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I hope Schwarber's bat doesn't slow down.
In 2025, he ranked 5th in average bat speed and 4th in fast swing rate.
His 2026 steamer projection is .227/.351/.481, 40 HR.
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Abreu ends up missing 34 days. Leading into his injury, he was on a tear 18-60, 5 2B, 2 HR, 8 BB, 12 K, .300/.377 /.483
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