If you eliminated every nuclear weapon on planet earth tomorrow, the world would see the return of conventional wars on a level it has not known since 1945. The fear of nuclear weapons has ushered in a previously unheard of period of relative peace between the great powers.

Israel could secure a major propaganda victory by offering to transport as many Palestinian civilians to Turkey or Iran as either country would allow, then watch both nations backtrack their rhetoric and make excuses for why it was impossible.

Israel’s decision to continue its war until Hamas is exterminated is the correct one. No nation could live peacefully, side by side, with this:

I swear the B-52 is the one airframe in USAF inventory that the "It can't survive in a peer threat environment, time to retire it!" folks have no idea even exists.

I have not joined in the chronicling of individual casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian war save for those senior officers whose fate may have an effect on the war overall. This is in large part because I do not believe in intruding on or sensationalizing the loss of a comrade in arms or a loved one. In my view this is a deeply private & painful thing that should be respected. I’m going to break my rule today, in light of special recognition from one soldiers’ own government on the event of their death. I was, albeit in a very odd & Air Force way, a member of a ground combat unit. My unit never saw action while I was deployed. However I’ve known a fair few medics, many of them with time under fire. They are without doubt some of the bravest men & women I’ve ever known. They are the best of us. So when anyones “Doc” goes down, it strikes a chord with me on a personal level. Of all the soldiers deserving recognition & remembrance, fallen combat medics must certainly rank among them. Sergeant Daria Filipyeva, Ukrainian Army. Killed in Action. My God bless you and keep you.

As an unrepentant history nerd: Whoever had the idea for the Army to march in the period uniforms that span the history of its quarter millennia defending the Republic actually does need promoting ahead of their peers. Thematically on point, and the troops look great.

An offensively bad WW2 hot take from Owen Jones. Yes, I'm just as shocked as the rest of you (insert sarcasm font), but it serves as a teachable moment. During WW2 the US provided the USSR lend lease aid totaling $11.3B. It included 400,000 jeeps & trucks, 14,000 airplanes, 8,000 tractors, 13,000 tanks, 1.5 million blankets, 15 million pairs of army boots, 107,000 tons of cotton, 2.7 million tons of petrol products, and 4.5 million tons of food. Joseph Stalin at Tehran in 1943: "I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," ... "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war." Nikita Khrushchev: "If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war," ... "One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."

First thoughts on the ongoing Hamas attack against Israel: 1. Massive Israeli intelligence failure. The last time Israel was blind sided this badly was the '73 war. Though we should note Israel came out on top in that conflict 50 years ago. 2. The scope of this infiltration attack indicates a huge level of planning and preparation spanning months or years. Which underscores point #1. 3. The level of brutality already involved; confirmed executions of Israeli soldiers and civilians, parading the bodies of slain IDF personnel (including 1 female soldier), indiscriminate killing of Israeli civilians, etc will help set the tone for what follows. 4. Israeli declaration of war by the PM gives some indication of what we can expect from Israel by way of response. Also indicates the seriousness with which the government regards this attack/invasion. As does the IDF moving to a war footing and immediately recalling reserves. 5. Expect a significant degree of rally around the flag following this. Internal disputes will be put on the back burner for the time being. This is good news for Bibi. 6. The Israeli left's political influence will likely take a serious beating given their long standing conciliatory (by comparison) stance towards the Palestinians. Again, good news for the current center-right governing coalition. 7. Given the widespread support for the Palestinians being voiced by various Arab governments in the region - the progress of the Abraham Accords has suffered significant damage. How much remains to be seen. 8. I expect a significant Israeli response. Whatever it looks like, it will open with the air campaign we're already seeing the beginnings of. I currently regard future ground operations into Gaza by the IDF as highly likely. 9. While Iran supports numerous proxies & militias in the region, including Hamas & Hezbollah, and has openly praised this attack, it's not yet clear how involved Tehran is prepared to be. Some of their official rhetoric has been bellicose. What Hezbollah chooses to do in over the next few days or weeks may provide insight. 10. Which way Hezbollah jumps will have a major impact. Their involvement would create a two front problem for Israel and bring a significant number of additional enemy forces into the fight. 11. Several Arab nations, including Egypt, have made what could be construed as threats against Israel if the IDF were to launch punitive operations against Gaza in ways they deem disproportionate. Whether this is merely rhetoric or a genuine warning remains to be seen. From some nations, like Egypt, it's a threat Israel must take seriously.

The IDF has handled this very intelligently. When the full extent of the Holocaust was discovered by advancing allied troops, General Eisenhower famously ordered the Press be shown the entirety of what had transpired. He understood it had to be documented, otherwise no one would believe it. No one wants to believe people are capable of such atrocities. The advent of social media has allowed Hamas and its fellow travelers to engage in digital barbarism, proudly proclaiming the evidence of the medieval horrors they have visited on the Israeli people for all the world to see online. Yet even now, most people are unwilling to believe one human being can do such things to another until the international press can confirm for them that it actually happened. Document it all, through as many varied outlets as possible.

The Izium Pocket 🧵: With the caveat that this front is developing so fast there may not be an Izium pocket long, some initial thoughts on the development and aftermath of the current situation. 1/

“Have you ever wondered what happened to the 56 men who signed the Declaration of Independence? Five signers were captured by the British as traitors, and tortured before they died. Twelve had their homes ransacked and burned. Two lost their sons in the revolutionary army, another had two sons captured. Nine of the 56 fought and died from wounds or hardships of the revolutionary war. They signed and they pledged their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor. What kind of men were they? Twenty-four were lawyers and jurists. Eleven were merchants, nine were farmers and large plantation owners, men of means, well educated. But they signed the Declaration of Independence knowing full well that the penalty would be death if they were captured. Carter Braxton of Virginia, a wealthy planter and trader, saw his ships swept from the seas by the British Navy. He sold his home and properties to pay his debts, and died in rags. Thomas McKeam was so hounded by the British that he was forced to move his family almost constantly. He served in the Congress without pay, and his family was kept in hiding. His possessions were taken from him, and poverty was his reward. Vandals or soldiers or both, looted the properties of Ellery, Clymer, Hall, Walton, Gwinnett, Heyward, Ruttledge, and Middleton. At the battle of Yorktown, Thomas Nelson Jr., noted that the British General Cornwallis had taken over the Nelson home for his headquarters. The owner quietly urged General George Washington to open fire. The home was destroyed, and Nelson died bankrupt. Francis Lewis had his home and properties destroyed. The enemy jailed his wife, and she died within a few months. John Hart was driven from his wife’s bedside as she was dying. Their 13 children fled for their lives. His fields and his gristmill were laid to waste. For more than a year he lived in forests and caves, returning home to find his wife dead and his children vanished. A few weeks later he died from exhaustion and a broken heart. Norris and Livingston suffered similar fates. Such were the stories and sacrifices of the American Revolution. These were not wild eyed, rabble-rousing ruffians. They were soft-spoken men of means and education. They had security, but they valued liberty more. Standing tall, straight, and unwavering, they pledged: ‘For the support of this declaration, with firm reliance on the protection of the divine providence, we mutually pledge to each other, our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.’” - Michael W Smith

Once Israeli retaliatory strikes begin to gain momentum - expect to see calls for an end to the violence from various governments, IGOs, and NGOs.

I expect we’ll eventually get a dissertation or book length treatment on the evolution of propaganda in modern warfare with respect to the Russo-Ukrainian War. Guys like Discount Lord Haw-Haw here are a case in point:

Achtung Panzer!, Kharkiv Front 🧵 This is what successful armored warfare looks like. There are many aspects to what appears to have made this operation work & I'd like to briefly go over a few of them. We'll start from the top & work our way down. 1/

Watching the Presidents press conference in real time, responding to the special prosecutor’s report alleging cognitive decline. This was the worst possible moment to confuse Egypt with Mexico while answering a question on Gaza.

I'm seeing unconfirmed reports that Russian units are retreating from Svyatohirs'k and Lyman. If accurate, Russian forces between Lyman and Kupyansk are effectively collapsing in real time.

As Israeli casualties continue to increase, the IDF mobilizes its personnel, and the calls for restraint and diplomacy begin to pick up steam - usually coupled with the shrill demands to behave "like a democracy!" - I think some context is helpful. The US lost just under 3,000 casualties on 9/11. In response we began 20 years of warfare that directly cost around 1 million people their lives with the aim of securing our citizenry from further attacks. Israel has been dealing with terror attacks on its citizens virtually since it was founded in 1948. In light of America's own response to a mass casualty terror attack on our soil, it is beyond hypocritical to urge Israel do any less than whatever it deems necessary to secure the safety of its own citizens. watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/…

#IsraelAtWar Silver Lining Hamas jumped the shark by widely spreading the documentation of their initial atrocities in this attack. They are self-righteously evil to such a degree that they were compelled to celebrate what they'd accomplished. Unfortunately for them this seriously undermines their traditional post-attack propaganda strategy of claiming victim status when Israel responds with force. Which is why we now see their surrogates working overtime to try and walk back or discredit the information Hamas itself presented to the world. Unlike the Nazis, who had enough self awareness to try and hide the evidence once they realized they'd lost the war, Hamas just couldn't help themselves.

Kherson Pocket🧵: If this is what it looks like & RU forces are preparing to attempt a retreat over the Dnieper, then the UAF is being given a priceless opportunity. Unless they are logistically incapable, or lack sufficient force, they should crush the RuAF against the river. 1/

Specifically note the two children in this crowd, the obvious armed one and the second in the background on the left. This is a deliberate tactic to include non-combatants in case they are struck by the Israelis. After which Palestinians can claim indiscriminate bombing. Edit: And several in the foreground as well.

If a nation launched 300+ missiles and drones against the US, we wouldn’t care how many were shot down and how many impacted in our country. We’d see it as a declaration of war and we’d respond militarily.

There is significant debate on who started WWII and when. Most agree it was Germany in 1939. Some make a good case that it was Japan in 1937. There are even those who cite Italy in 1935. This is just historical illiteracy masquerading as opinion:

Reporter: “Are the air strikes in Yemen working?” Biden: “Well, when you say ‘working’ are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes,” I’ve never seen a Presidents’ foreign policy failings so perfectly captured in a single answer before.

Seeing persistent reports coming out of Ukrainian sources that mass surrenders around Kherson are being negotiated. I have no official confirmation of this.

Fair warning; this one is brutal. The EOD folks can tear the technical side of this apart in detail, but what immediately struck me was the total lack of effort by the unwounded survivor to treat the casualties.

#OTD 79 years ago the Warsaw Uprising begins in 1944. Polish Home Army units rise up and storm Nazi positions in and around Warsaw, intending to hold the city until they can be relieved by the advancing Soviet Army. Unfortunately the Soviets halt and allow the Polish units, thought by the Soviets to represent a danger to their plans for a communist puppet government post-war, to be slaughtered. British & American forces conduct a belated and half-hearted attempt to support the effort with long range supply drops. The Poles hold out for 63 days, suffering as many as 20,000+ combatant casualties in addition to 150-200,000+ civilian casualties. The majority of the city is subsequently reduced to rubble. I highly recommend following @WW2girl1944 if you're interested in an in-depth accounting of this engagement, and Polish military history during WW2 in general.

I usually make an effort to be somewhat restrained in my criticisms, that will not be the case here. This was an egregious affront to competent historical research. Aside from the selective use of facts, the outright gaslighting, the portrayal of Churchill as a warmonger for not allowing the Nazis to rule over large swathes of conquered continental Europe - something I'm sure @AndreasKoureas_ will rebut in due course, and the manifold faulty conclusions on the various subjects Cooper meanders through - perhaps the most egregious portion of this is the whitewashing of Nazis atrocities on the Eastern front. 47:12: "They [Nazi Germany] launched a war where they were completely unprepared for millions and millions of prisoners of war... and they just threw these people into camps and millions of people ended up dead." This is nonsense. Active murder of undesirables in Germany began in Sept. 1939 when the AktionT4 program began implementation and in Poland following the invasion in the same month. Tens of thousands of Polish civilians were actively hunted down and murdered. Both operations were carried out by the Einsatzgruppen. In the leadup to Barbarossa, each Army Group (North, Center, & South) was assigned its own Einsatzgruppen detachment to follow along in the wake of the invasion, liquidating undesirables - a task they initiated immediately. Moreover the Hunger Plan - brainchild of SS-Obergruppenführer Herbert Backe - was conceived in late 1940 and taken through planning stages during early 1941. By May 1941 Hans-Joachim Riecke's agricultural section of the Economic Staff East began promulgating policy guidelines for its implementation. The expressly stated goal was to starve "tens of millions" of the "superfluous population" to death in the occupied eastern territories.

A few thoughts on the Carlson-Putin interview: 1. This used to be normal for journalists. Mike Wallace interviewed Noriega and Khomeini, and Barbara Walters interviewed Gadaffi and Castro. They've interviewed terrorists, dictators, and serial killers. In the grand scheme of things they make headlines and are sensational, but rarely have lasting impact. 2. Putin has already, repeatedly, said why he invaded Ukraine. What he says here will be interesting only in the context of how he wishes to spin the war and Russia's current position in it to the West. Which may prove insightful or it may not, we shall see. 3. This is not the uncontrolled environment Carlson insinuates that it is. Putin has no qualms about imprisoning or killing journalists, or anyone else who draws his ire by openly and effectively dissenting from his actions. This interview will have had conditional guardrails put up by Putin before he agreed to it. Some things will not be asked, or will only be asked in certain ways. What is and isn't asked and how, will be interesting. 4. I'll be watching it. If you do, keep in mind the points above and then add this to it. Putin is a KGB officer turned revanchist dictator who has initiated a war of conquest that hasn't gone as he had hoped. Understand the man you're listening to when he speaks, and filter what he says through the understanding.

Saudi Arabia has announced it will suspend normalization with Israel. This strategic Iranian victory was the point of the attack . It likely reduces the chances of full Hezbollah involvement. No point risking their second proxy now that the goal has been achieved.

The number of people blithely assuming the US military would assassinate American politicians if ordered to do so is something I find genuinely offensive. It’s a personal insult to the honor every service member & veteran, and betrays a deep disdain for the military on behalf of those making the assumption.

Possibly Unpopular Opinion: I fully appreciate that the "wartime leader attire" of dressing down has become a hallmark for Zelensky. When you show up to the White House, put on a suit & tie.

Historically, Russian autocrats do not fare well in the aftermath of major Russian military disasters. <End>

An American citizen has been executed by a designated foreign terrorist organization during ceasefire negotiations. In my view, the time for speaking has now passed.

There needs to be a hard conversation within NATO on whether Turkey should be allowed to remain a member. This is just the latest example of why that debate needs to be had.

At every opportunity the Palestinian people at large have shown the world that there is widespread popular support among their population for the actions of Oct. 7. Until that changes, what we saw last month will happen again. It's simply a matter of time.

It's almost physically painful for me to say this; John Bolton is right this time. We either confront Iran now or manage the fallout later when they achieve nuclear breakout and our options against them are far more limited.

The current Israeli mood (as much as I can determine it) could best be analogized for Americans to that in the US post-9/11. Many think they're up against Holocaust 2.0, they're in the process of fighting it out with terrorists while they bury their dead. Calls for restraint and protestations about the finer points of international law are going to fall on deaf ears. Agree with it or not, that's where they are and we should prepare ourselves for the implications of that mindset as the IDF gears up to invade Gaza.

“Women are for sex, men are for pleasure,” was one of the first things an Iraqi soldier told me after finding out I wasn’t married on my first tour. I don’t know anyone who worked with them that didn’t run into that mindset sooner or later.

There comes a point where the level of atrocity being committed by the enemy erodes any sense of chivalry or desire to observe the niceties of the rules of war, even in those inclined towards merciful treatment of their foes. Americans famously executed SS guards at Dachau once they discovered the horrors being perpetrated there. In the aftermath of the Malmedy massacre the 328th US Infantry Regiment issued an order to its personnel stating "No SS troops or paratroopers will be taken prisoner but will be shot on sight." Stories like this one have become a pattern over the past 72 hours. Should they prove true, they are emblematic of the kind of incidents that precipitate the degradation of strict morality I described above. "Soldiers encounter unimaginable horrors as they remove the bodies of victims, including about 40 babies and small children — some with their heads chopped off" i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at…

The notion that the Ukrainians can successfully prosecute this war without striking some targets in Russia is genuinely absurd. reuters.com/world/white-hous…

If you've been wondering if you're watching the post Cold War order the US built and presided over unravel before your eyes - you are. America will have to fight to keep it. Militarily, economically, industrially, institutionally, culturally, socially - it is a battle on all fronts. We're not ready for it, but then America has almost never been ready for its wars at the outset. The question is if we're willing to fight as we have in generations past.

Oil infrastructure is exactly the type of vulnerable industrial target the Ukrainians should be destroying whenever possible.

The notion that the US/NATO is responsible for Russian aggression because we offered military protection to former subject nations who wished to remain free from Russia, is nonsense. Russia has been an expansionist power for centuries. The US/NATO are the reason countries like the Baltics are still sovereign, because otherwise they would have already been reconquered. The mistake was not going all the way and putting everything on Russia's western (European) border under the US nuclear umbrella when we had the chance.

The F-35 is a failed platform. The US Air Force should immediately pivot to the Sienar Fleet Systems TIE/D "Defender."

This remains one of the most militarily incoherent stances of the Biden Admin. Advocating military & industrial targets in Russia should be immune from Ukrainian attack, is advocating for Ukraine to lose the war. nitter.app/Azovsouth/status/17751…

There are bad ideas, dangerously bad ideas, and then there are catastrophes in the making like this:

4. If another "back-to-the-river" massacre of Russian units can be orchestrated at Kherson, it will do incalculable damage to the Russian army in terms of morale, manpower, and materiel. This must be the goal. Killing Russians, in large numbers, while minimizing risk.

The US giving up the Panama Canal was an imbecilic unforced error by one of the worst foreign policy presidents of modern times. Reasserting control of it would be squarely in US national interests. Not only to secure it for friendly use, but to deny it to our adversaries if and when we deem it necessary. It is a key maritime choke point.

For Americans who don't think a potential war between Venezuela and Guyana is any of our business, and we'll even set aside the long term strategic implications for the purposes of this discussion, what do you imagine war in South America does for illegal immigration into the US?

Rep. Greene, destroying conventional Russian military capability for a decade or more, w/o risking US personnel in the process, is certainly in US interests. This is an opportunity we cannot afford to pass up. Should we ignore it, the cost later will dwarf current aid spending.

The entire assessment from @TheStudyofWar is well worth the read, but I want to highlight this point in particular. If US intel has this right and 87% of the pre-war active duty ground forces are gone, that means the pre-war Russian army has effectively ceased to exist. That's a staggering level of casualties, and would naturally be concentrated in the combat arms. Institutionally, that means the bulk of the Russian army going forward will be comprised of conscripts (some with previous training), and those who've lived long enough to gain battlefield experience. This is also the first hard indication from a third party source as to how bad Russian casualties may in fact be.

The Collapse 🧵: Conventional warfare is rare in the modern era, even rarer is when a portion of one army effectively collapses. That is currently the situation facing Russian forces between Kupyansk & Lyman. The situation is highly fluid & only those UAF personnel at the 1/

There is no precedent I'm aware of for an army allowing this many third party civilians access to an active warzone in order to resupply a hostile population.

Once again, the systemic leaking of US intentions and now movements prior to the expected retaliation strikes represents a deliberate effort to telegraph the US response. This is not only foolish and counterproductive, but invites further attacks.

I never thought we'd get here, but some Europeans may (grudgingly in many cases) have finally seen the light on mass, unassimilated, immigration after the latest wave of pro-Hamas rallies and anti-semetic violence across Europe. Olaf Scholz has publicly stated the need for "large scale" deportations and the Bundestag has approved the plan for expedited removal of rejected asylum seekers. dw.com/en/germany-cabinet-ap… Macron, under pressure, has slowly been driven towards similar policies. euronews.com/2023/10/16/fran… france24.com/en/europe/20221… Denmark was ahead of the curve when it began deportations in 2021. bbc.com/news/world-europe-57… Greece and Italy are also making efforts in this direction under their respective governments. dw.com/en/eu-countries-again… The, unpalatable to some, fact of the matter is that the Western democracies of the world operate with their own set of values. Among these are a general level of toleration for differences among our fellow citizens, a respect for civil/human rights, respect for the sanctity of life, etc. These are values that much of the rest of the world does not share. Immigrants that wish to align themselves with us and legally join our societies because they agree with these values, should be welcomed. Those that reject our society and seek to undermine it with value systems antithetical to our own after immigrating into our nations, should be deported. This is a war of ideas. Either the free world will fight to uphold its values, or the societies those values created will eventually be destroyed and replaced by something far worse.

US Ambassador to the UN @USAmbUN has stated that any attack by the Wagner Group on NATO will be treated as an attack by the Russian Federation on NATO. This is absolutely the correct response and that line needs to be spelled out explicitly for Moscow. piped.video/TWKHI1K33m0?t=420

The western democracies are entirely too long on moral outrage and entirely too short on moral courage.

7. Should both the Kherson & Izium sectors fall & fall hard, Russian casualties will be extreme. This will have ramifications inside Russia. If Putin's response is to demand mobilization & fresh offensives, his own position in the power structure will become far less secure.

5. If the UAF can push the Russians over both the Oskol & the Dnieper rivers, it will be in an excellent position to hold for the winter while it consolidates, trains, reequips, and refits its forces. Spring 2023 will not be pleasant for the Russian army in such a scenario.

2. The retreat must be harried. When an army breaks as the Russian army currently is, it becomes an opportunity to generate maximum casualties & maximum panic. Defeated armies tend to suffer the most casualties once they begin to rout, it is then they can be comprehensively

The USAF would wipe the floor with the Russian Air Force. It might get ugly, but the result of that contest isn’t a question. The problem is what comes next, which is Russia escalates to its strategic deterrent once its conventional forces have been badly damaged/destroyed.

Outside my usual lane here: Is there a reason California doesn’t build desalinization plants to alleviate its water shortage issues? I genuinely don’t know & would appreciate any insight. It would seem like a sound solution.

I cannot fathom what good Zelensky thinks a statement like this will do. Accusing Poland & Slovakia (and others) of being proxies or stalking horses for Moscow b/c of a dispute over grain exports is incredibly insulting to two nations who've been stalwart supporters.

This is your periodic reminder that TikTok should be banned in the US as a foreign intelligence and propaganda tool.

destroyed. The UAF must (as it is able) stay on their flanks & rear and continue to shell them. Air strikes on retreating columns would also be ideal, circumstances permitting. This is the time to break them, while keeping yourself from overextending. It will be a balancing act.

I would not advise anyone, military or civilian, to voluntarily fly on an Osprey. Let alone someone of @VP Harris' seniority within the US government.

This is the worst mindset to have. When attacked, the US response should be disproportionate, overwhelming, and in service to our strategic interests whenever possible. A critical component of deterrence is instilling fear in your enemies. This won't accomplish that.

In my view, SrA Hebert should be court martialed under Article 134 and separated from the Air Force. Wholly unacceptable conduct.

I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you. defence-blog.com/russian-mil…

6. Keep an eye on the level of equipment captured in the current offensives. It will indicate both the level of panic experienced by Russian troops, and provide a critical source of resupply for non-western systems still in use.

1. Welcome to kesselschlacht, or in English, the battle of encirclement. UAF appears to be conducting a double (north-south) envelopment of Russian formations in/around & north of Izium. Whether this pocket becomes closed, or remains somewhat open - the Russian situation is dire.

In the back of every good analyst's mind for 7 months has been at least one question: "What will Ukraine look like on offense?" We're finding out. They're giving us all a hell of a show on their 1st time out. 16/16

This falls under “Be careful what you wish for.” Last time Egypt & Syria went up against the IDF the Soviets had to threaten direct intervention to prevent the IDF marching on Damascus, the Egyptian 2nd & 3rd Armies were badly mauled, & the Suez Canal overrun by the Israelis.

& gamble everything he has on Ukraine. It is unlikely the bulk of these other individuals will make the same choice. If they become convinced Putin is no longer a rational actor, the possibility of something drastic happening at a high level within Moscow becomes more likely.

Well friends, it’s that time of the year again:

Claiming the man who almost single handedly kept Europe in the fight against the Nazis, in the face of comprehensive defeat on the continent, is the “chief villain” of WW2, is to utter a statement so moronic that it calls into question both your intellect & motives. #Churchill

stabilize the sector of front, they have no choice. Once that move begins in earnest, the UAF will be granted another window to hit the Russians hard in Kherson. The Russians are short on manpower, keeping them off balance & reactive will pay dividends.

AP needs better experts. The US bombing campaign against Japan killed between 250,000 and 900,000 people, with the March 1945 firebombing of Tokyo accounting for between 80,000 and 130,000 deaths alone.

Addition: This is almost moving faster than I can write it. There are now (thank you to those who directed me to them) reports that UAF units are hitting Izium from the south with heavy fighting within the city limits. The entire tenor of the war in the east has changed.

There was a time when a man’s personal honor was held as something that was often more precious than his own life. I think the world could use a reintroduction of that social norm.

At some point, a broken & ravaged Russian army becomes a threat to undermine the power structure that supports not only Putin, but the three centers of power in the Russian system: the Oligarchs, the Generals, & the intel/security services. Putin may be willing to throw the dice

I see a great deal of merit in the idea the IDF should simply flood the Hamas tunnel network in Gaza with as much seawater as it can hold.

3. Russian command & control is, for the moment, absent in any observable sense from the Russian units heavily engaged or retreating. Nor do the Russians appear to possess the combat power to halt UAF advances at present. They will begin pulling troops from the south to

I rarely comment on the Snowden situation, but in this case I think there's an observation worth making. Knowing how Putin's Russia functions, privileges are transactional. The question I always ask is what Snowden gave the Russian Govt in exchange for his current treatment.

The captured equipment tally in the Kharkiv assault continues to grow. This may be the only time in recent memory a large conventional army could resupply itself in the field from captured stocks of equipment of all kinds, composed of platforms already in use by their own forces.

US needs to get its messaging in order. Either we support Israel’s right to defend itself per @POTUS , or we’re pressuring for a ceasefire per @SecBlinken . It can’t be both, b/c Israel has been crystal clear it’s planning to retaliate.

Poland is set to reach 4.7% of GDP spent on defense in 2025 according to its current draft budget proposal. This is what a responsible European NATO member looks like. polskieradio.pl/395/7784/Art…

How do we deal with drone swarms? One the most effective ways (IMO) isn’t going to be fancy. Put up a wall of lead from multiple radar guided high cyclic rate SHORAD guns with detonating submunitions. History may not repeat, but it does rhyme.

For anyone shocked by this, I suggest you go look up Operation: Vengeance. 18 April 1943. Specific targeting of senior uniformed military personnel during a time of war is not assassination.

The UAF have pulled off a remarkable strategic deception. By initiating, even telegraphing, an offensive in OpComSouth as their main effort they have successfully induced the Russian command to transfer a considerable number of troops south. Including some higher quality 2/

Bingo. The West hasn't had to fight a hot war for survival in 80 years and in the interim while it fought wars of choice against 3rd rate opponents, elements in the West developed some very odd ideas about how wars "must" be conducted.

In the case of a closed pocket the task will be to reduce the formations inside while isolating it from relief attempts. In an open scenario, the object will be to close the trap, or harry fleeing units to the best of the UAFs ability.

I was reminded of the Battle of Khasham today by @BA_Friedman. Very few people were aware of it when it happened, and given current events I thought I'd post this write up. Punchline: US destroys Wagner Group Battalion in Syria circa 2018. coffeeordie.com/wagner-group…

I have some thoughts on this. They are all both highly descriptive and utterly profane. @TheEconomist

I can't believe I need to say this after 20+ years of the GWOT, but... "The jihadists promised they'd be moderate this time, so we have to throw money at them for regional security!" is a certifiably insane foreign policy proposal.

I’ll say it again: Under NO circumstances should Turkey be allowed access to the F-35 program. This is the nation openly siding with terrorists against Israel and in whose streets US military personnel face abduction attempts in broad daylight. It is an unreliable ally at best.

An exemplary exhibition of cowardice, dishonesty, and stupidity. This kind of mindset has been Biden Admin SOP and it’s why so much of the planet is literally on fire right now.

This type of aggression against US assets used to be rare. Because America's enemies were terrified of what they knew the US response would be. Under increasingly weak and feckless US leadership, the consequences have all but disappeared, and so America is attacked regularly.

The UAF have now effectively launched two assaults in two seperate operational areas. A fixing attack at Kherson that the Russians cannot ignore, & an armored/mech deep penetration strike into the rear of Russian forces in the east. This will force Russian commanders to make 4/

formations. This seems to have denuded the Russians opposite OpComEast of ready reserves & robust combat units in general. Furthermore the UAF was able to mass combat power in excess of what many analysts (including myself, I must admit) thought was possible. 3/