Spreading Rational Optimism by sharing good news and countering negativity. Come join us on substack: bit.ly/4cv4nNo
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The ocean is the new Wild West.
Trillions in resources are untapped. 99% of the world's data flows through UNGUARDED undersea cables.
And new "flying boats" are set to move cargo at the speed of a plane for the cost of a ship.
Meet the founders building the autonomous fleets and sea drones to tame this frontier.
w/ @DisruptionHedge, @DavidZagaynov, & @willob
ROP #38
#technology #drones #logistics
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Great to see, we can hope that in the future the citizens of every country will do so when politicians decide to shutter nuclear for no reason.
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For anyone not familiar with @boomsupersonic and what they are doing, while their website does a good job of explaining it I also really recommend this video from @storyandscience they just released on XB-1s first supersonic flight. piped.video/watch?v=Yug5QSI-…
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@elonmusk's the @boringcompany strikes me as one of those companies that has been quietly shaping itself up to do things few people have even considered as possible.
Given what Elon has done for other industries I imagine we will see a surge of innovation in tunnel boring soon.
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Wow. As Rational Optimists we talk a lot about how much things are getting better, but its staggering to see when you do the footwork to compile positive stories just how many there are. Props to @HumanProgress for this treasure trove of great news.
While rational optimism is the more realistic viewpoint to hold about the world, maintaining that perspective is a constant uphill struggle.
Here is our latest contribution to that endeavor: a list of all the good news we could round up in 2024.
humanprogress.org/1066-good-…
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Great chart. This article is great for showing how much of a relative reduction in price there has been with so many of the products we use every day. At times prices will increase, even unbearably so, but the overall long term trend is an abundance of everything.
Number (or multiple) of items the SAME amount of labor buys a typical U.S. blue-collar worker (1971-2024).
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The big implication of this news is, with some regulatory reform, we could have flights going up to Mach 1.3 over mainland USA. That is roughly twice the usual speed airliners are taking. Viva @boomsupersonic!
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Drug overdoses are finally on the decline.
Is Narcan responsible or are we seeing overall drug use go down across the US population?
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Many thanks @sapinker for the shoutout. We love your work!
The Rational Optimist Society: Their goal is to make optimism cool again, with a newsletter on significant positive developments in the world.
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Could airships solve many of our shipping problems?
Airship Industries thinks so, and so does Stephen McBride. In the latest Rational Optimist Diary he covers why airships will return, how the tech you carry will improve your health, and why betting trumps polling.
Link below:
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We've hit 1000 followers on X! Thanks to everyone who is tuning in to our Rationally Optimistic posting, hopefully what we share has made you think both more positively about the future and why it is that humanity is capable of making the world a better place.
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Your average Mississippian is richer than the average Brit. That's despite Mississippi's status as the poorest US State.
Why that is, our visit to UATX, a glimpse inside a Nuclear Reactor Factory, and much more on our latest Rational Optimist Podcast: rationaloptimistsociety.com/…
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"Failure is an option here. If things are not failing, you are not innovating enough." It's clear why Elon Musk believes this wholeheartedly. By sticking with SpaceX he succeeded because its failures led to amazing later success.
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A great beginner to intermediate primer on what @AaloAtomics's goals are and on the nuclear industry more broadly, in the form of an insightful interview between @pronounced_kyle and @MattLoszak.
There are currently zero nuclear reactors under construction in America today. Why?
They're safe. They're green. Our grid needs greater capacity. And entrepreneurs want to build more reactors.
I sat down with @MattLoszak to find out why — and how his startup, Aalo Atomics, might be part of the solution.
00:00 — Introducing Aalo Atomics
02:50 — What is Uranium Zirconium Hydride and how does it work?
06:20 — How does UZrH compare to other nuclear fuels?
08:28 — Why are the Aalo reactor fuel rods so narrow?
10:39 — Why do some experts think this reactor won’t work?
12:52 — “Nuclear today IS insanely safe.”
14:29 — Are regulators strangling the nuclear industry?
17:43 — Building a nuclear reactor factory
19:42 — Why build a small reactor?
26:44 — Nuclear fuel supply chains
32:11 — Aalo’s connection to MARVEL (the reactor, not the superheroes)
37:00 — Why use sodium as a coolant? Isn’t that unsafe?
40:55 — Beating up a nuclear reactor for fun and science
42:10 — Why not choose a fast spectrum reactor?
44:16 — Why not pursue fusion?
47:25 — What are Aalo’s next big milestones?
50:00 — What does the DOE regulatory path look like?
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This is a really common issue, one we and others have discussed regarding good news. Good news is happening, but it often happens with long slow trends.
Most everything has been getting better over time, but it's the singular bad bits of news that stand out the most.
Sometimes, the most important news is when something *isn’t* happening:
Since the last plane crash by a US airline, they have transported passengers for more than two *light-years*
ALT Chart showing that the cumulative passenger miles traveled without a plane crash by US airlines is 2.3 light years.
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Good news! Self-driving cars are coming soon to a city near you. Our latest Deep Dive is the first in a two part series detailing the upcoming autonomous vehicle revolution.
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Ok, crazy idea, but why don't we have firefighting missiles? You could deliver a payload of some retardant chemical mix with pinpoint precision within minutes of detection at the site of any wildfire that has gotten out of control.
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Happy Thanksgiving! As Rational Optimists, we have a lot to be thankful for. Stephen McBride and Dan Steinhart discuss five of their favorite recent stories on the latest ROPodcast, linked below.
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Happy New Year! To all of you who have joined us at Rational Optimist Society in our first months, a sincere thank you. We only do this because we believe, like with the new year, that a positive outlook and will to change what needs changing is a worthwhile message to spread.
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Watching this excellent explainer of what Bell Labs was and what it accomplished, it seems to beg the question of what further innovations would have come if AT&T wasn't split and Bell Labs had continued operating.
Bell Labs was so cracked that I made a new "historic S3" format just to dive deeper into their inventions and lore.
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Rational Optimism means anti-censorship and pro freedom!
@dan_steinhart and @DisruptionHedge explain some of the reasons to be optimistic today for freedom of speech.
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"The innovation famine is over, real world physical innovation is back."
Watch our latest ROPodcast on why we have so many new innovations, Boeing's botching of Starliner, fracking energizing North Dakota, and how we can save preemie babies.
rationaloptimistsociety.com/…
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Regulations that are so strict the technology is strangled aren't regulations, they are prohibitions.
Delighted to be in the WSJ this morning with my colleague @ckoopman arguing that the NRC is exceeding its statutory authority in reactor licensing.
"Federal courts should simply require the NRC to follow federal law."
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Great to watch, amazing coverage too with the video from the chase plane's @Starlink. Congrats to @boomsupersonic for this first step towards the full reemergence of supersonic flight.
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Seems interesting. At a bare minimum assuming the science works as advertised this would make a lot of sense for large crowded public spaces like airports.
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We have begun healing the paralyzed !
Elon's @neuralink is giving paralyzed people the opportunity to walk again.
This is nothing short of a miracle.
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Amazing video from S³ on one of our favorite new supersonic startups, @AstroMechanica, and the great progress they are making. Especially good here is the breakdown of how their engine will work, high hopes for the future.
This week's S³ features @AstroMechanica: a new startup ushering in the electric-adaptive age — where supersonic, electric jets cross the Atlantic.
This is the first time their new engine has ever been shared publicly.
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Yes, between this and the banning of Golden Rice in the Philippines, those pushing for these initiatives have caused much damage.
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With the advent of near perfect AI voice and video, is there going to be a trend of people taking flawed but potentially great movies and using AI to fix them? This seems like an obvious thing, I think it would be really interesting to see different takes on the same film.
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The approaches of both Tesla and Waymo have both demonstrated the extreme safety efficacy of Self-Driving tech. It is going to be widespread very soon.
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The latest ROPodcast is up. Stephen and Dan talk Marc Andreesen's podcast episode, focusing on debanking, regulations, and drones, before covering defense contractors being disrupted by Anduril, airship cargo transport, and more!
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Nanotechnology is a field of technological progress at a scale so small we are rubbing shoulders with atoms.
In this weeks Rational Optimist Diary, Stephen McBride tackles nanotech and building on such a small scale, plus how it is startups may revolutionize nuclear fusion.
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Nearly every power plant today uses steam turbines. But one of the best potential sources of steam to produce energy, Geothermal, has yet to amount to much.
The latest Rational Optimist Diary digs down into why that may soon change.
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Defense startups might not seem like a topic for Rational Optimists to write about, but the world is a dangerous place. We are glad that some of America's best and brightest are working on startups that are revitalizing America's military tech industry.
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We are at the start of a new space race. @SpaceX deserves clear credit for starting it, but it is amazing how many new space related startups and businesses are popping up.
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Nice to see Brightline getting more coverage. While many US infrastructure projects have been disappointing in their cost and time overruns, Brightline has done quite well. Especially, as the thread points out, in comparison to California's which is now estimated to cost over $100 billion (in 2008 it was approved for 33 billion). Not to mention nobody knows when it is supposed to be finished, and this is only Phase 1 of the project.
The Brightline, a newly *privately* constructed, owned, and operated Florida railway from Miami to Orlando, is the most successful infrastructure story today in America. A thread on how it got done, how nice it is, and how it plans to replicate its success across America 🇺🇸 🧵
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Realistically speaking, we are at the first point in history where we could implement total government financial transparency if we wished. While it would have been technologically impossible to do in the past, it could absolutely be done now.
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Cut the budget?
An impossible task?
@elonmusk & @VivekGRamaswamy might be up to it!
Join @dan_steinhart and @DisruptionHedge for Episode 13 of the Rational Optimist Podcast: piped.video/watch?v=q1e2dsF0…
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When drones are delivering burritos and robots are folding laundry, what else can we call it but the year of the robot?
The latest Rational Optimist Diary covers some of the latest advancements in robotics technology and what you can expect to see in the near future.
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Imagine pressing 'print' and out pops a new house. This is no sci-fi—it’s happening now!
Read up on 3D Printing at rationaloptimistsociety.com/…
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Fracking is a much misunderstood and maligned source of energy. Our latest Deep Dive helps explain the process and the amazing real world impacts it has had.
Read it here: rationaloptimistsociety.com/…
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Want to know why history proves that innovation leads to more jobs than it destroys?
Watch the latest Rational Optimist Podcast, with our hosts @dan_steinhart and @DisruptionHedge
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The real killer of most of these things is likely apathy. People have been given jobs to decide if things like nuclear plants should be built, but they do not care for the jobs, and they don't care about the meaning and consequences of their decisions.
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Fantastic historical deep dive into the adoption of coal as fuel. It is a bit dense due to the level of detail, but if you find historical innovation interesting it is well worth a read.
Why did coal, having been used in Britain for centuries, very suddenly take off in London in 1580-1600?
I dove deep into the archives, unearthing a story *never* told before. It was thanks to German inventors, and through brewing, that coal really won.
ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-…
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Watch the latest ROS Podcast to learn more:
piped.video/watch?v=bsLua5Tk…
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Can robots now learn by watching? Looks like it. This weeks ROPodcast covers Figure Robotics' Helix AI, Clone Robotics' somewhat creepy demo, Microsoft's Majorana chip, and why Grok has dethroned Claude as the most powerful model.
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Elon's @neuralink is giving paralyzed people the opportunity to walk again.
This is nothing short of a miracle.
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Hadn't heard much about this, good story. A simpler option, done well, and punching above its monetary weight is a great thing to see.
Everyone laughed when Elon said he'd dig tunnels to fix LA traffic..
Now his underground Vegas loop is making $75M a year.
But how this business grew is actually wild.
Here's what's actually happening beneath the strip: 🧵
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Read about startups like @anduriltech and @castelion in our latest Weekly Diary.
rationaloptimistsociety.com/…
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There are so many examples of false doomsayers, but by the time we get around to the date of their predictions their damage is done and most everyone moved on a decade before. Unless we can figure out a good way to keep it in the public spotlight this will keep repeating.
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AI is a job killer... but not in the way you think.
This weeks Rational Optimist Diary shows how technological progress has never led to mass unemployment, and ponders what effects AI may have on our future.
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The Weekly Dose of Optimism by @packyM is a great and concise retelling of stories on human innovation from the last week. Check it out if you want to read more content like ours.
Osmo teleports scents.
Physical Intelligence (π) robots fold laundry.
GLP-1s may help fight Alzheimer's AND knee pain.
OXMAN's O° grows shoes and fabrics with biology.GLP-1s may help fight Alzheimer's AND knee pain.
Plus, some Astro Mechanica test fire videos.
What a week for the optimists.
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$500 billion dollar Stargate project? This week's Rational Optimist Podcast covers the new massive AI database announcement, Pro and Cons around social media and the status of TikTok, and why AI could allow for every child to have their very own tutor.
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How is it possible for planes to go supersonic without a sonic boom? Or for nuclear reactors to produce nearly no waste?
Stephen Mcbride talks about the solutions we have right in front of us in this week's Rational Optimist Diary.
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WTF Happened in 2024? Nowadays when we look up from our phones we often see aging subway cars or other decaying infrastructure. We've made great digital progress, but what happened to so much of the physical progress we were promised.
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Amazing to see the rate of progress. More than likely this is just the tip of the iceberg, and if you ever needed proof of the viability of autonomous cars here it is.
NEWS: Waymo has announced they are now providing over 150,000 paid Robotaxi trips per week, up from 100,000 per week in August. Waymo’s entire robotaxi fleet is now driving over 1 million fully autonomous miles every week.
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War is not a topic we will often cover, but in this weeks Rational Optimist Diary Stephen McBride writes his thoughts on the future of the military and what impacts AI and drones will have.
After all, while war is a pessimistic topic, it is a part of reality unlikely to change.
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Quality thread from @MattLoszak, CEO of @AaloAtomics.
In it he illustrates the reasons Aalo expect Small Modular Reactors to be the future of energy and the role mass production will take in reducing costs.
Read about our recent visit to Aalo here: rationaloptimistsociety.com/…
What would it take to create the SpaceX of Nuclear, cutting costs by 10x?
For rockets, the answer was obvious: Make them re-usable.
What is the equivalent insight for reactors? 🧵
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Supersonic flight and Small Modular Reactors aren't some sci fi concepts. They are part of the future we were promised, and they are here right now.
Our latest Rational Optimist Diary covers both @boomsupersonic's latest breakthroughs, and the great progress SMR's are making.
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Any thoughts on this idea? I've never seen this discussed before I thought of it earlier, but surely somebody has considered doing this before (at least the weather manipulation part). This could go a long way towards protecting human settlements from fires like those in Los Angeles right now.
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The newest Rational Optimist Diary by Stephen McBride, covering his thoughts on why he thinks Solar is reaching a usability tipping point. For this and more, read it here at: rationaloptimistsociety.com/…
My latest Rational Optimist Diary is out:
"The awesome near-future of solar"
Plus, the end of superbugs?... my ride in a driverless waymo... some fun 'out there' things we could do with abundant cheap energy... and more⬇️
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What is driving these self-driving cars? How are Tesla and Waymo competing? And where is the world headed once they are widespread?
Discover our answers to these questions and more: (part 2 in February) rationaloptimistsociety.com/…
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