Danoff Dean of Harvard College @harvard. Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy @Kennedy_School. Newsletter - forklightning.substack.com
Cambridge, MA
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Delighted to announce that @elianalaferrara is joining the HKS faculty starting July 2022. Welcome to HKS, Eliana! Huge win for dev econ @Kennedy_School @gordon_h_hanson @rodrikdani @aikhwaja @rema_nadeem
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My piece in @TheAtlantic today:
Break Up Big Econ
The economics profession has become insular and status-obsessed, and not focused enough on making a positive impact on the world.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…
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Saturday was my last day as Coeditor of AEJ: Applied. I am stepping down to serve as the Academic Dean @Kennedy_School. I learned a ton from the AEJ coeditor team and became a better researcher. Here is a final public audit of my 3.5 years at AEJ plus some reflections 1/X
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I wrote a piece for @TheAtlantic about the growing perception that college is no longer worth it.
It's important for people to know that the value of a BA increases with work experience, peaking at ages 45-55.
Tuition (and loans) must be repaid long before that. College seems like a bad deal initially and tuition is too high. Despite all that, it's often worth it in the long run.
@paultough @DKThomp @JoshGoodman_BU
"The long-term value of a bachelor’s degree is much greater than it initially appears," @ProfDavidDeming writes.
"If a college professor or pundit tries to convince you otherwise, ask them what they would choose for their own children." theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…
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In the @UpshotNYT this morning – nytimes.com/interactive/2018… - coverage of an important paper by Raj Chetty and @nhendren82 about race and economic opportunity in the US. Here are my initial thoughts on this landmark piece of research: 1/x
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Professional News! Starting July 1st, I will be faculty director of the Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School hks.harvard.edu/announcement… 1/n
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Personal news. I am starting a new job on July 1:
news.harvard.edu/gazette/sto…
Still planning to do research and writing, although perhaps at a slower pace!
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New column! nytimes.com/2020/09/17/busin…
Here I make the case that we should make community colleges the centerpiece of a plan to get Americans back to work 1/x
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Incredibly honored to receive the Sherwin Rosen Prize for outstanding contributions to labor economics - sole-jole.org/sherwin-rosen-…
HKS's @ProfDavidDeming has been awarded the Sherwin Rosen Prize for Outstanding Contributions in the Field of Labor Economics by the Society of Labor Economists ken.sc/3w3UzGz
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Check out my new column today in @nytimes ! I am writing about the importance of making socially valuable data available to the public nytimes.com/2021/02/19/busin… 1/x
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New paper alert! “The School to Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime” with @abacherhicks and @billingsecon nber.org/papers/w26257 1/X
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Proud of my employer for seeing the light. The fairest admissions policy IMO is universal testing + a thumb on the scale for disadvantaged applicants.
news.harvard.edu/gazette/sto…
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What I did right 1) I wrote every R&R decision letter like a contract. Do these X things and we will publish. And now here are some suggestions that you should do but don’t have to do. Very straightforward and transparent. 7/X
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1.5 years into coediting AEJ: Applied, here is a public audit on my job performance and then some thoughts on being an editor 1/X
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Professional news: I am leaving my post as coeditor at @J_HumanResource and starting this month as a coeditor at AEJ:Applied. Colleagues, please send me your papers! 1/x
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New (non-COVID) working paper alert! “Team Players: How Social Skills Improve Group Performance” nber.org/papers/w27071 1/x
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My latest NYT column! – this one is about major choice and STEM careers – nytimes.com/2019/09/20/busin… 1/1
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This morning, Raj Chetty, @john_n_friedman and I released a new paper from @oppinsights about the determinants and causal impacts of admission at highly selective private colleges in the U.S. Here is the paper webpage opportunityinsights.org/pape… 1/n
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I wrote a column about what this grand experiment in online learning means for the future: nytimes.com/2020/04/09/busin… 1/x
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Thanks to @HarvardMagazine and @MaxKrupnick for covering my @ecmaEditors paper with @benweidmann on how to identify Team Players!
harvardmagazine.com/2023/09/…
Link to the full paper:
static1.squarespace.com/stat…
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Last Friday, I was honored to receive the David Kershaw Award appam.org/awards/david-n-ker… from APPAM. At the conference, I gave a talk entitled “What Does Education Do?” In case you missed it, I am going to TWEETSTORM the main points below 1/N
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I wrote a column about free college:
nytimes.com/2019/07/19/busin… 1/4
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18 months after starting at AEJ: Applied, my first paper as coeditor is out in print! aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…. It is ”ProPelled: The Effects of Grants on Graduate, Earnings and Welfare” by @JeffDenning, Ben Marx and Lesley Turner 1/x
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Be question driven. Pick a topic that is interesting no matter what the data turn out to show you.
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In my humble opinion, these results put an empirical nail in the coffin of the “Bell Curve” (care to disagree @charlesmurray?). Based on these results, I see no plausible argument that racial wage gaps are caused by differences in innate ability. END THREAD 12/12
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At least one in six workers in management, business, and computer-related occupations is using generative AI at work every day.
Also, 22% of blue collar workers use AI.
From our new paper, "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI":
static1.squarespace.com/stat…
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ALERT - 🚨 – tweetstorm below about my new paper “STEM Careers and Technological Change”, with @knoray23 - link here nber.org/papers/w25065; 1/N
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In August, 39% of U.S. adults ages 18-64 used generative AI. 24% used it at work at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and almost 1 in 9 workers used it every day.
From the “Rapid Adoption of Generative AI”, paper here:
static1.squarespace.com/stat…
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Finally, and most importantly – the fact that the black-white income gap is so large and persistent for men - but not for women - argues very strongly against any kind of genetic or innate ability-based explanation for racial wage gaps. 10/x
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Thanks to @tylercowen for mentioning my new paper – “Why Do Wages Grow Faster for Educated Workers?” Of course he nails the point about human capital vs. signaling in dynamic settings marginalrevolution.com/margi…
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Excited to begin a new research partnership with Raj Chetty and @John_N_Friedman - climbinitiative.org 1/x
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2) I took some chances on promising papers that needed a lot of work, written by junior authors or authors with less of a network. Not for equity reasons, but b/c they are more likely to listen to feedback than established seniors. Those papers all turned out really well 9/X
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2) The black/white income gap is driven entirely by males. I knew this was true to some extent, but the findings are truly shocking. Controlling for family income, black women earn MORE as adults than white women. 4/x
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I am delighted to pass the directorship of the Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy to Sandra Susan Smith! Sandra will be an amazing leader. It has been an honor to serve the MWC community. @InequalityHKS @HarvardMWC @Kennedy_School hks.harvard.edu/announcement…
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On any given day, 21% of black men born to the lowest-income families are incarcerated. As an otherwise proud American, reading these results filled me with sadness and shame. 6/x
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With some trepidation, I am going to weigh in on the Seattle minimum wage study (tweetstorm follows) 1/N
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Two years after the release of chatGPT, nearly 40% of Americans are using generative AI.
30% were using the internet 3 years after the Netscape IPO, and 20% were using PCs 3 years after the IBM PC.
Generative AI adoption has been faster than both.
pw.hks.harvard.edu/post/the-…
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What does research have to say about the impact of the AK budget cuts? In my paper with Chris Walters scholar.harvard.edu/files/dd… we find that a 10 percent budget cut reduces enrollment by 3 percent, BA degrees by ~4.5 percent and certs/AAs by 14 percent 1/4
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I wrote a short overview for the NBER reporter about the current state of research on soft skills in the labor market:
nber.org/reporter/2017number…
Some highlights:
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Today I published the first installment of a multi-part series at Forked Lightning on technological disruption in the labor market.
To understand the future of work with AI, look to the past. The figure below stitches together U.S. employment data from 1880 to the present.
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Most importantly I avoided a long right tail. 2 of my papers hit 120 days, and 1 hit 133. Everything else was under 120. I’m very proud of that record. I know the pain of long publication delays, especially for those on the tenure track 5/X
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In conclusion – editing was a great experience. But the workload became tough to manage and I’m ready for a break. I hope this was helpful for folks out there who want to understand the publishing process! 13/x
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Actually - one more thing! - paper here: equality-of-opportunity.org/ and we will be discussing these results in my Inequality class today:
scholar.harvard.edu/files/dd…
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I’m not saying that students should avoid STEM! But I am saying that we should avoid the impulse to make college curricula narrowly career-focused. College must prepare students for the next 40 years of working life, and for a future that none of us can imagine. 5/5
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My conclusion - while Chetty and Hendren have not *proven* that labor market (rather than pre-market) discrimination against black men is a primary cause of racial inequality, they have pushed it into pole position. It is hard for me to see the facts any other way. 9/x
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Black boys and girls obviously have common genes, and they have similar test scores throughout childhood. Yet outcomes are much worse for black men. Chetty and Hendren can’t nail down the exact causes, but they are clearly environmental. 11/x
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Fun article about my recent QJE paper on social skills news.harvard.edu/gazette/sto…
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Last week, Yale announced it would start requiring tests again, while U Michigan announced a permanent "test optional" policy.
Dartmouth found that "test optional" harms the low-income, first-gen applicants it is intended to help. I explain why in the thread below 1/x
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They calculate that the government likely *fully recoups the cost of Pell grant aid* within 10 years because of the fiscal externality generated by earnings gains 5/x
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Really excited to chart the future of work and skills alongside @JosephBFuller @pqblair @rachel_lipson @_ibald. Check out the new virtual home for our collaboration, the Project on Workforce @harvard pw.hks.harvard.edu
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New paper! “The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job” static1.squarespace.com/stat… 1/x
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Tweetstorm about my new working paper with Chris Walters - nber.org/papers/w23736 - in 3..2…1/N
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First, the most important facts: 1) Black children have much higher rates of downward mobility. White children born in the top 20% are almost 5 times more likely to stay there than to drop to the bottom 20%. For black children, both outcomes are equally likely. 2/x
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This helps authors but it also helped me, because when the paper came back months later I could just go back to the list. I think it made the time from R&R to publication quicker and less painful for everyone. 8/x
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3) After controlling for income, differences in family characteristics – including marriage rates, education and wealth – explain very little of the black-white income gap. 7/x
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Things I did wrong. 1) I was too harsh in the first few months. Looking back there were some papers near the beginning that I could have treated more generously. Perhaps I was trying to prove myself by imposing high standards. 11/X
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Thank you for saying this, @jasonfurman. I agree completely.
In my classes, I strive to create an inclusive environment for all perspectives. That's partly why I avoid public statements outside my lane. But as a member of the Harvard community, I feel compelled to address the statement from 36 Harvard student groups docs.google.com/document/d/1…
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This paper with @benweidmann is now forthcoming in Econometrica! @ecmaEditors. Preprint here: econometricsociety.org/syste…, and see below for original tweetstorm. Happily the paper has not changed too much...
New (non-COVID) working paper alert! “Team Players: How Social Skills Improve Group Performance” nber.org/papers/w27071 1/x
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Congratulations to my brilliant colleague @MarcellaAlsan on winning a MacArthur "genius" fellowship!
hks.harvard.edu/news/marcell…
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This is so amazing, congrats @PikaGoldin, you are the best!!!
BREAKING NEWS
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2023 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Claudia Goldin “for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes.”
#NobelPrize
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My latest in @TheAtlantic:
Eliminating BA requirements for govt jobs (aka skills-based hiring), as both presidential candidates propose, isn't good enough.
We need to create better career pathways in fields like health, IT, and manufacturing.
Don't just subsidize, build.
Eliminating degree requirements for jobs is very popular with voters, but would do almost nothing to help workers who don’t have a college diploma, @ProfDavidDeming writes: theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…
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Today I released a new paper called “Allocative Skill” with Andrew Caplin, @leth_soren, and @weidmann. We introduce a new way to measure the quality of economic decision-making called the Assignment Game. Play the game here!
skillslab.dev/assignment-gam…
1/x
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I gave a revise and resubmit to 6 percent of the papers I handled. So far, every single one of them has made it to publication. There are some fantastic papers in there! I also ended up rejecting some pretty fantastic papers. I won’t miss that. 6/X
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We are hiring – please spread the word! The Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy is seeking a Project Coordinator / Research Assistant. Here is the link to apply: sjobs.brassring.com/TGnewUI/… 1/x
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I don’t care who the authors are, I just want to publish the best papers I can. That is part selection but also part treatment - so I try to make them better along the way! END 17/17
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This is just horrible. Had such great convos with @Rodprime while I was coding furiously at TSP on our school accountability project @eduwonkette_jen @SarahCohodes. Such a funny, brilliant guy. I'm so sad. Rodney, you burned bright and left us way too soon. RIP my friend.
Rodney Andrews has died
I can’t believe I am saying these words
He was a gift to the world and our profession
profiles.utdallas.edu/rodney…
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I'm back, Twitter! Lots to say after a summer hiatus, but first priority is to congratulate @KiraboJackson on winning the Kershaw award @APPAM_DC! So well deserved. Honored to be in your company, my friend! ipr.northwestern.edu/news/20… 1/2
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TL;DR – community colleges should be the centerpiece of our economic recovery strategy. They can be local job creation hubs and pave pathways to economic opportunity - in partnership with employers and ed-tech innovators. 12/x
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In principle, racial wage gaps could exist even if employers are race-neutral, because black workers might have accumulated fewer skills due to “pre-market” discrimination (poorly funded schools, polluted drinking water, family stress etc..) 9/x
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Least favorite part of the job – rejecting great papers, especially from junior faculty who are trying make their way in this brutal profession. I take no pleasure in it. 10/x
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thanks to @AlexMasPton and @Ben_Olken for your leadership, and @nealemahoney , @seema_econ, @ikuziemko and @landais_camille for teaching me so much about econ through your own great editorial service. the colleagues were BY FAR the best part! 15/15
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4) Racial wage gaps exist everywhere, even within narrowly defined geographic areas. In 99% of the neighborhoods in the US, black boys will earn less as adults than the white boys who grew up next to them. 8/x
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The Harvard Skills Lab is hiring for a Product Manager to work with @Weidmann and me + a small team of software developers to design and develop “soft skills” assessment tools. See the full job ad here harvardskillslab.com/_files/…. Please RT + send to your network, and/or apply! 1/x
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They find big impacts of Pell aid on freshmen just beginning at 4 year colleges. An extra $1k of financial aid increases graduation within 7 years by about 15 percent. They also find earnings gains of 7-10 percent using TX admin data 3/x
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She gave the paper an R&R but listed 3+ pages of detailed comments (points 1-17, with multiple sub-bullets!) with advice on how to write and frame it better and which referee comments I should listen to and which I should ignore 15/x
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For better or worse, I try to be clear and decisive. I will definitely get it wrong sometimes. But I can give authors timely and clear feedback to smooth the publication process. I do enjoy the job, but I will probably also enjoy the time back when my term ends :) 11/11
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3) I formed a prior on the paper and then selected referees that would help me update my prior. If the key issue was methodological, I’d pick an applied metrics referee. If it was about country context, a country expert. And so on….10/X
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I’m a proud alum of @GoldmanSchool #8foldpath
Congrats to @Kennedy_School Professor @ProfDavidDeming (MPP '05) who was awarded the David N. Kershaw Award by @APPAM_DC for his contributions to the field of public policy analysis and management. buff.ly/2M7Zaxt
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I handled 551 manuscripts (this includes some still pending, which I will continue to shepherd until they reach a final decision). That’s about 160 per year, or 1 every 2.3 days. I tried to be fast because it takes as much time to do it sooner as it does to do it later 2/X
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I also have a taste for really interesting descriptive work and/or papers that take the “old school” approach of attributing rich patterns in data to models (either explicit or implicit) - e.g. see my recent paper on social skills academic.oup.com/qje/article… 10/x
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@c_r_walt is taking over for me, which is going to be an improvement :) Chris is a great researcher and has superb judgment 14/x
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Last thing – @abacherhicks deserves most of the credit here, and was the driving force for this project from start to finish. If you like what you see, hire him! He is an HKS PhD student on the job market this year…. 12/12
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Excited to present our paper on economic decision-making at the NBER summer institute:
nber.org/conferences/si-2024…
Here's the paper (NBER):
nber.org/papers/w31674
and ungated:
static1.squarespace.com/stat…
Today I released a new paper called “Allocative Skill” with Andrew Caplin, @leth_soren, and @weidmann. We introduce a new way to measure the quality of economic decision-making called the Assignment Game. Play the game here!
skillslab.dev/assignment-gam…
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.@JakeVigdor I am confused about the implications you draw from this. The increase in R2 from Col 2 to 4 just shows how important HS FE are. It implies that the GPA-maximizing policy would weight high-income high schools very heavily. that seems bad!
And sure, the SAT can occasionally promote equity. But if it’s an equity agenda you want to pursue, standardized tests can’t hold a candle to:
1) Ending legacy admissions
2) Ending donor child admissions
3) Ending most athlete recruitment
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STEM majors earn more right out of college, but liberal arts majors gradually catch up and by age 40 there is little or no earnings difference between them 2/5
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Today on Forked Lightning:
Do colleges have a free speech problem?
What a study of social norms in Saudi Arabia teaches us about free expression on campus
X throttles links, so hopefully you know where to go but if not just check out my website - it's there!
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The second reason is that a liberal arts education teaches valuable soft skills like critical thinking that are broad, transferable and “future-proof”. These skills are learned best through dialogue and deep engagement with material, even if it abstract 4/5
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I use this fantastic website for my course on inequality (syllabus link scholar.harvard.edu/files/dd…) - keep up the great work!
Huge congratulations to @MaxCRoser and the @OurWorldInData team on winning nearly $1.8m from @gatesfoundation to continue their amazing work. Read all about it here! inet.ox.ac.uk/news/our-world…
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Overall, suspending middle schoolers at a higher-than-normal rate appears to harm kids substantially, especially African-American boys. So this evidence supports recent calls to limit discipline in schools, such as the law just passed in California (SB 419) 11/X
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So in the AK context, we could expect a decline in enrollment-years of about 12 percent, and then falling degree completion rates of around 15-20 percent for 4 year degrees – a massive blow to the state @dynarski @dylanmatt @JMitchellWSJ @paulfain @jscottclayton @jdmatsudaira 4/4
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These low mobility rates are the primary cause of slow convergence in black/white income gaps.3/x
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For my faculty colleagues – or others with a platform – here is one way you can make a difference. Alums of my classes this year (my freshman seminar, and SUP-206 / Econ 1084, “The Causes and Consequences of Inequality”) decided to donate to @ColorOfChange 1/4
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My latest @nytimesbusiness Why the risk of AI isn’t about technology, but about politics and economic fairness. We need a new social contract to make the jobs of the future *good* jobs, so we can all share the bounty of technological progress. Enjoy! nytimes.com/2020/01/30/busin…
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2) I wore down and started giving less feedback than I should to rejected manuscripts. It didn’t change any decisions, but when pressed for time I focused less on feedback and helping authors improve the paper. I’d rather cut feedback than be too slow, but better to do both. 12/x
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The primary question I have in mind when reading a paper is “what have I learned from reading this that I did not already know?” This is a heuristic that helps me weigh impact/contribution vs. methodological strength 6/x
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Here is a link to the NYT story nytimes.com/interactive/2023…. Here is the short non-technical summary opportunityinsights.org/wp-c…
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At the Malcolm Wiener Center, we are supporting 18 undergraduate RA positions, many for low-income/first gen students who lost jobs due to campus closure. One of many ways that @Kennedy_School is stepping up during the COVID-19 crisis (@HarvardMWC @thecrimson @InequalityHKS)
As students seek out remote work opportunities, Harvard College Dean of Administration and Finance Sheila C. Thimba says the College can press, but not force, campus employers to offer jobs to undergraduates. ow.ly/1pIB50znaY0
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If you're interested in the details, see scholar.harvard.edu/files/dd… for the slide deck (including references). Thanks for reading! 23/23
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