Prediction Market Trader | $300k+ Profit | Kalshi Partner | Trade on Kalshi and earn $10kalshi.com/pmt

Trump’s Wednesday address was our biggest mention market ever - over $60K on the line It also turned into our biggest win ever Full stream highlights
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Jerome Powell coughs → instant $500 profit
We make $500 if Jerome Powell coughs today Lock it in
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INSANE Kalshi Mention Market Edge Before Trump’s Rose Garden speech, the WH stream caught him flipping his transcript - revealing the words “Chuck Schumer.” "Chuck Schumer" was trading around 60% odds to be mentioned. The first traders who noticed made thousands within minutes.
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A lot of people don’t realize this, but most of my viewers are elite hedge-fund quants
you simply aren’t locked in enough.
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Replying to @CFBReport
LOL how is Mizzou still ranked?
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After a mention market speech ends, the fastest traders scoop up NO shares on words that weren’t said, locking in risk-free profits. Watch us grab nearly $100 instantly on Kalshi after the White House Press Secretary speech ends.
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NEW WORLD RECORD TIME ACHIEVED Making $100 on Kalshi in 6.3 seconds
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Thank you @Polymarket for funding the ring!
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POWELL JUST COUGHED AND SAID PARDON ME EASIEST $500 OF MY LIFE I DO NOT MISSSSS
We make $500 if Jerome Powell coughs today Lock it in
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We missed a 100x live on Kalshi's Trump Mention Market🤯 >Trump on the border said "I say" (sounded like "ICE") >Someone bought 10K YES "ICE" at 99¢ >The trader who took the NO side flipped $100 → $10K instantly Watch Live🎥
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2025 has been a year. >Got engaged to my fiancée >Quit my accounting job after 5 years >Going all-in on prediction markets >And now, moving from LA to NYC Lock in.
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We make $500 if Jerome Powell coughs today Lock it in
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Everyone assumes scale makes it easier. In reality: $100 → $1,000 is easy $10,000 → $100,000 is hard $100,000 → $1,000,000 is brutal The bigger your bankroll, the harder it gets
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BREAKING: We officially have the keys to a 2 bedroom apartment One room will be dedicated to streaming It will take a week to move in but once everything’s setup stream quality will be impeccable
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Road to $100K Profit on Kalshi — Week 7 Recap Total P/L: +$59,199 This Week: +$2,759 Past 4 Weeks: Week 6: +$2,687 Week 5: +$2,841 Week 4: +$2,235 Week 3: +$2,937 Up $13,549 over the last 5 weeks - all publicly verifiable through my Kalshi account. Streaming daily on X, Twitch & YouTube
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Crazy flip on Kalshi’s South Park mention market last night. Everyone thought “prediction” was said 4 times, so YES shares on "prediction 5+" traded at just 5¢ (20x). On rewatch + transcript check, it was actually mentioned 5 times. Dollars were on sale for a nickel. First movers scooped and made thousands. This was wild to cover live.
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Excited to be joining @KalshiEco I first discovered prediction markets over a year ago and was immediately hooked. This began a year-long obsession where I compulsively followed markets, trying to find edge and learning what was behind price movements. As an accountant for my day job, and a poker/horse racing player on the side - I was already obsessed with numbers and probabilities which made these markets feel like home. The allure of prediction markets was clear: anyone could become an expert in a domain and be rewarded handsomely. What's more, almost every other avenue currently available to consumers is designed to set you up for failure. Sportsbooks are nearly unbeatable because of the house edge you're competing against and they'll limit you if you're actually a winning player. If you're trying to outperform the stock market, you'll be competing against incredibly sophisticated, well-capitalized institutional players and are more likely to lose money than outperform. Prediction markets like Kalshi are still in their infancy, which means clever, everyday people who develop expertise in a niche can be rewarded monetarily. Just listen to a couple of the interviews I've done with top Kalshi traders who have made over six figures predicting anything from Rotten Tomatoes movie scores and Spotify song rankings to the exact words someone will say in a speech. Kalshi doesn't ban profitable traders; they celebrate them for making markets more efficient. They use the wisdom of markets to reveal clear, data-driven probabilities on events shaping the world. We live in an era of divisiveness. It’s hard to know the truth with biased pundits on mainstream television and misinformation rampant on social media. Media incentives have shifted toward whatever gets clicks and plays to viewers’ existing beliefs. Kalshi offers a new way forward: achieving truth through free markets. Who do you trust more? Someone with an opinion or someone confident enough to put money behind it? I believe prediction markets have the potential to reshape media and the way people understand the world. I couldn’t be more excited to play a part in that.
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Replying to @Polymarket
Kamala campaign must have run out of money to prop her up on Polymarket
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Uhhh pretty sure they use yards in football, guys? This shit is too easy man
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What are "bonds" on Kalshi? Bonds are events typically priced in the range of 80-95% probability of occurring, when their fair value should be closer to 98%/99%. In my opinion, they are the most frequent mispricing that occurs on PMs since users naturally gravitate towards long shots and don't see the appeal in earning 10-15% on a position. I try to allocate a significant portion of my portfolio (60-70%) to these types of plays. What I am NOT saying is that you can consistently profit by just buying things priced 80-95% since their a "guarantee". You obviously have to confirm what you are "bonding" is truly mispriced.
.@PredMTrader on why people overpay for longshots “the biggest mispricings are those 99% outcomes that still trade around $0.90 to $0.95 cents. people chase the 100x, but that gap’s insane when you think about it”
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We’ve officially crossed $50,000 total profit on Kalshi! 🥂 Halfway to the $100K goal Here is a long post on what I've learned to succeed on Prediction Markets 1. Find a niche category of markets to focus in If you truly want to have an edge, you need to be an expert in your category. Don’t spread yourself too thin by trying to stay on top of too many markets. 2. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is When you find a market that you think is wildly mispriced after just reading the title, take a pause, pull up the full market contract with resolution criteria and try to understand what you could be missing. While acting quickly can be profitable in reacting to new developments, it can also lead to some big losses if you’re not careful to confirm you fully understand the contract. 3. News trading is still one of the best strategies These markets are always open and operating 24/7. If you are dialed in to new developments in your niche, you can frequently interpret how they impact certain markets and react fast enough before probabilities shift. The reverse of this is also true where sometimes people overreact to news and you can take the other side at often really good prices. 4. Start small if you are new There are a lot of intricacies to trading on prediction markets that you may not realize as a new user. It is a rite of passage that you will make plenty of mistakes so starting small while you learn the ropes is the best way to proceed. I’d even recommend starting with no cash in the beginning and just watching markets and seeing how their odds fluctuate in response to new developments. 5. If you’re size does not move the market odds, you are probably in the wrong market The higher the volume and deeper the liquidity, the more efficient a market will be since there is more incentive for larger players to price them correctly (ie. You can make more money if you’re right). There are now thousands of markets everyday on these platforms, many of which are illiquid. There is not much incentive for sharp market participants to want to focus on these illiquid markets. If you’re a new user with a small bankroll, I’d recommend scouring through illiquid markets to try to find edge. You would be shocked how many already resolvable markets you will find that will still have standing orders up (but make sure to also consider #2 above before buying). 6. Whenever possible, use limit orders instead of market orders This one’s pretty self-explanatory - With limit orders you’ll earn liquidity rewards (on eligible markets), get in at a better price, and won’t run the risk of dealing with high slippage in illiquid markets. One of the top complaints I hear from new users is not understanding why they are getting filled at a bad price and I have even heard some horror stories of new users market selling their already won positions at 1 cent because the order book was empty. If you’re new, spend some time to understand how order books work. 7. Talk to other people in the community! Kalshi has built a really great discord and there are also a ton of other great prediction market focused discords with knowledgeable traders that are open to sharing their thoughts and providing guidance. Overall, I think the prediction market community is extremely positive and welcoming to new users. Most OG prediction market traders just want to see more volume and liquidity in their markets so they will spend the time interacting and helping new users. I will shoutout @Foster, @GaetenD and @thegreektrader as just some examples (there are many more!) of people I think are really great in the community and help new users understand these markets. In conclusion, there is so much more I could write about but these are just a few topics I wanted to cover. I absolutely love prediction markets and it has been the most exciting past month seeing how mainstream they are getting with volumes skyrocketing.
Road to $100K Profit on Kalshi - 2nd Week in Review Total P/L: +$48,677 This Week: +$2,937 Taylor Swift made our week and is my Queen A thread with every trade clip this week🧵
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In an absolute SHOCKER, Trump says he will not be meeting with Kim Jong-Un Who could have seen this coming?
If you saw $925 on the ground, would you pick it up?
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Some people choose alcohol, drugs, or partying I choose the greatest rush known to man - mention markets
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A lot of new people are getting excited about prediction markets. Here’s a list of real, crazy ways I’ve profited on them in the past year to show you how much opportunity is out there. Spoiler: You don’t have to reinvent the wheel with complex statistical analysis (although this would surely work too) 1. Kentucky Derby Horse Race - I made around $1,200 simply buying shares of the horse that won this year’s derby AFTER he had already won the race. Yes, I literally watched the race, saw who won, and quickly bought up all the “yes” shares on the winning horse and “no” shares on all the others. 2. Earthquake markets - I vibecoded a bot with cursor in a couple hours that queries an earthquake API every few seconds and will ping when there are earthquakes above 7.0 so I know to buy all the “yes” earthquake above 7.0 this month shares. My partner who I share this bot with made $2,000 buying “yes” shares AFTER the earthquake already happened (this was the 7.5 that happened like a week ago). 3. Live Trading Mention Markets - Simply watch mention markets live (while finding the lowest delay streams) and bond words after they are said. You can frequently get fills for 90-95 cents on thousands of shares AFTER the word has already been said. Most recently, Kalshi had a South Park mention market 2 weeks ago where you could literally limit fill tens of thousands of shares at 95c on yes of a word that was already said (the word was “woke”). Similarly, you can monitor these markets for when people incorrectly bond a word that wasn’t actually said. This happens more frequently than you might think and you can get some pretty crazy lottery tickets. @Foster specializes in this and has turned $200 into $20,000 twice exploiting someone who incorrectly bonded a word at 99 cents that hadn’t actually been said. 4. Attend a sports game live, and trade based on the few seconds of information advantage you have to people watching via streams or satellite. I know a lot of people are already doing this now so not sure how much opportunity is still available, but in its heyday I knew people making $10K from a single big sports game trading live while in attendance. 5. Cross Platform Arbitrage - Yes this is still a thing with opportunities still available. However, to get a lot of volume down it usually turns into some form of market making across platforms with limit orders on both sides. The real money here is when you identify identical looking markets trading at the same price but one of them has more beneficial resolution rules so you can structure your play to be a free option for if the edge case occur and both sides of your bet win.
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Guy in my new complex asked me what I do for a living Told him there’s a 90% chance the next word out of his mouth would be “what” You can guess what happened next
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If you saw $925 on the ground, would you pick it up?
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College football is almost here - Here's the Natty odds I've gotten on Polymarket vs Sportsbooks
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We Missed Another 100x on Kalshi’s Trump Speech Market >Trump said he was leaving >Traders rushed to buy NO shares up to 99¢ thinking the speech was over >Then he kept rambling... >At the very last moment he said “Biden” - which was trading at 1–3¢ 🎥 Watch it happen live
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We are officially in NYC and like it or not this is what a peak streaming setup looks like The streams will resume tomorrow
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WHY DID I NOT TAIL THIS
Pat McAfee please pick a hammered UGA student to kick the field goal
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Road to $100k profit on Kalshi Week in Review Total P/L: +$50,912 This Week: +$2,235 A thread with every trade clip this week:
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A lot of people are bullish on “create your own market”. Here’s why I’m skeptical: Liquidity: Markets already struggle here. Opening it up to anyone likely makes this worse. Resolution criteria: Even pros find it hard to draft criteria that cover every scenario. Expecting casual users to do it seems unrealistic. Regulation: Approving endless user generated markets would be a compliance nightmare. Duplication: Without strong safeguards, you’d get multiple duplicative/overlapping markets, most of which would die out. Maybe someone smarter than me cracks this, but I’m not convinced. Near term, I’d rather see a better process for suggesting new markets instead of the current ad hoc “Twitter & Discord” system.
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A lot of people don't know this, but most of my profits have just come from copy-trading Gaeten
On reopening: 1. Both parties want the bill to pass 2. Trump wants the bill to pass 3. There are real consequences if the bill doesn’t pass tomorrow 4. Johnson is going to try to pass the bill tomorrow Yet when I woke this morning, pricing was at only $0.62 for 43N.
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How I made $5,000 shorting GPT-5 on Polymarket
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A lot of people ask me - what’s the secret to mentions? Don’t underestimate having a good computer setup. I recommend 2 screens at a minimum so you can research transcripts, watch film, and trade all at once.
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If your childhood looked like this, you will make it on prediction markets
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Still can’t believe how wild this stream was. Our Swiftie Quant - who had never used prediction markets - went 9 for 11 and we cashed over $2K. He even nailed the 2.5M and 3.0M album sales calls, which were trading at just 30% and 14% odds. His only misses? Two longshots: NO “Lover” and YES “Spotlight.” Watch the highlights and all picks below 🎥
THE SWIFTIE STREAM - LIVE WEDNESDAY 7PM PST Joined by a Swiftie who has never heard of prediction markets but has: >Attended the Eras Tour concert TWICE >Attended the 1989 World Tour concert >Attended 40 total concerts in the past year >Made me money nitter.app/i/broadcasts/1YpJkkMwq…
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If you give me Costco saying "Hot Dog" on their earnings call at 3-1, I have no choice, I'm sorry
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Pros: Kalshi mention on South Park Cons: Lost $400 because of it
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NYC MAYORAL DEBATE - LIVE 5:30 PM ET 5:30 - Debate preview w/ @ZhouJaron 6:00 - Mention market plays w/ @Foster (Kalshi’s #1 mentions trader) 6:30 - Pro poker legend @Joeingram1 7:00 - Live debate reactions + play-by-play w/ @locksybet nitter.app/i/broadcasts/1YqGolZor…
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Road to $100k profit on Kalshi Week in Review Total P/L: +$53,753 This Week: +$2,841 A thread with every clip🧵
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Wedding planning is going well with fiancée
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He made $3,700 on Mamdani's Victory Speech >Kalshi listed a strike for "Free Buses" >Mamdani says he will make buses "fast and free" >He hammers 5,000 NO shares at 30 cents >Speech ends and he walks away with $4K
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Everyone yapping in the comments - meanwhile we cash $1600 Easiest money of my life
Uhhh pretty sure they use yards in football, guys? This shit is too easy man
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Road to $100K Profit on Kalshi - 2nd Week in Review Total P/L: +$48,677 This Week: +$2,937 Taylor Swift made our week and is my Queen A thread with every trade clip this week🧵
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Sports Futures are a Far Better Product on Prediction Markets >Ability to cash out any time during the season and live games >No house, so much tighter lines and you can even find edges live trading >Even if you hold all season long, you'll earn interest on your position
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quit your job to tweet about predicting
quit your job to tweet
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KALSHI MENTION MARKETS JUST HIT PRIZEPICKS. Volume is about to get absurd. This is insane.
Trade prediction markets on @PrizePicks Sports. Movies. Music. Politics. Economics. And so much more are now live. All event contracts listed on PrizePicks are Kalshi markets.
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How to Profit on Prediction Markets - A Short Guide Why Now Is the Best Time to Start If you’re reading this, you likely come from one of three backgrounds: sports betting, traditional finance/trading, or crypto. Here's why prediction markets may offer a better path forward: Sports Betting In today’s environment, being profitable long-term in sports betting is nearly impossible. Sportsbooks charge a built-in commission or “vig” that eats away at your edge. And even if you're one of the rare few who do win consistently, sportsbooks will often limit or ban your account altogether. Finance/Trading If you come from a finance or trading background, you’ve probably dreamed of profiting from stocks, options, or forex. But you're competing against deep-pocketed institutional players with better data, tools, and execution. The numbers are clear: most retail traders lose money - and even those who profit often underperform a simple index fund. Crypto Crypto has produced massive gains for some, but unless you're an insider, the odds are stacked against you. Pump-and-dump schemes, insider trading, and thin liquidity are rampant. While I’m not bearish on crypto overall, its current structure often leaves retail traders holding the bag. Why Prediction Markets Are Different Prediction markets are still in their infancy. That means: - There’s little to no institutional money involved. - Markets are highly inefficient, creating exploitable opportunities. - Fees are minimal, especially compared to sportsbooks or brokerages. Platforms like Polymarket currently charge no fees while Kalshi, the leading U.S.-regulated platform, charges low to no fees on limit orders and a reasonable 0-2% scaling fee on market orders. In short, prediction markets offer a rare opportunity: you can trade in a real-money environment with a clear edge—without competing against institutional money (yet). Four Key Strategies to Profit 1. Arbitrage Arbitrage is the strategy I recommend most for beginners - and the one I’ve personally used to generate the majority of my profits. What is it? You buy both sides of the same market on different platforms when odds diverge. It’s easiest to understand with an example: Let’s say the Dodgers are playing the Angels. - On Polymarket, Dodgers shares are selling for $0.65. - On Sportsbooks, Angels shares are selling for $0.33. If you buy one share of each, you spend $0.98 total. One team will win, and that share will pay out $1.00, guaranteeing a $0.02 profit per trade, or a 2% return. Scale this up to 20,000 shares, and you’ve just locked in a $400 profit with no market risk. Why it works: - Your edge is quantifiable - if the spread is 2%, that’s your edge. - New platforms emerging mean more pricing discrepancies. - Lower "vig" on prediction markets make these arbitrage opportunities way more frequent when compared with traditional sportsbooks Caution: Always read the resolution criteria. Even if two markets seem identical, small wording differences can lead to dramatically different outcomes. 2. Information Advantage Prediction markets operate 24/7, and news breaks constantly. If you're the first to react, or better yet, the first to interpret, you can move in before the market adjusts. For example: A breaking news tweet says Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire. Immediately, you buy “yes” shares on a Polymarket for the ceasefire. Or you buy “no” shares for future missile strikes by Israel. The odds adjust shortly after—and you’ve already locked in profit. Beyond just speed, your ability to interpret the news is crucial. Many traders make mistakes by reacting emotionally or trusting unreliable sources. If you can stay grounded in reality and judge news objectively, you can consistently beat the market. Identifying and having solid information sources is crucial. Setting up notifications is also a must to be able to react timely to new developments. 3. Live Trading This refers to trading during live events - a debate, a sports game, a congressional vote, etc. The idea is simple: react in real time faster than everyone else. Example: You're attending a soccer game in person. The home team scores a goal. You quickly buy “yes” shares on their victory seconds before the market adjusts. That time edge translates into profit. Live trading requires: - Quick reflexes - A fast internet connection - Ideally, low-latency access to information others don’t have yet 4. Building a Predictive Model This is often the first strategy people think of - but it’s also the most technically demanding. If you have skills in statistics, programming, or data science, you could build models to forecast: - Election outcomes - Weather patterns - Tweet frequency - Sports stats - and much more. Prediction markets offer recurring markets, so a good model can be reused and refined. While it’s difficult and requires a time investment, the payoff can be significant if your edge is strong and repeatable. Final Thoughts This guide is meant to give you a broad overview of strategies that work on prediction markets. It’s far from exhaustive - and that’s the point. This space is still early, and the lack of structured guides or courses is a massive signal. If you’re curious, analytical, and disciplined, prediction markets might be one of the best trading opportunities available today. Who Am I? I’ve been a part-time prediction market trader for the past year and have made roughly $35,000 in profit on about $2 million in total trading volume. While I am clearly not the most successful prediction market trader out there, it has generated me a solid side-income. Most of my profits have come from arbitrage, but I’ve also employed all the strategies covered in this guide.
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Interesting comparison of when Major news outlets reported the Israel retaliatory strike on Iran. NYT 4:36PM WSJ 4:28PM CNN 4:27PM Axios 4:18PM #Polymarket 3:52PM
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MENTION MARKETS GO MAINSTREAM
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How we knew “Pardon” YES was a lock before Powell even spoke 👇
Jerome Powell coughs → instant $500 profit
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There are so many edges live-trading Kalshi mention markets >Jimmy Fallon asks Taylor about her ring >She talks about it for 2 minutes without saying “ring” >As soon as the topic changes, we hammer NO “ring” at 75c >She never says it - we cash $100 🎥 Watch the clip to see how we caught it live
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Market makers trying to price parlays on prediction markets
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The Government Shutdown officially ended last night when Trump signed the funding bill at 10PM. But trading on Kalshi didn’t stop. After Trump's signature, odds of the shutdown ending before 11/13 instantly spiked to 99¢ - fully bonded. Except… the market didn’t resolve. Kalshi’s rules were based on the OPM’s website, not the President’s signature. opm.gov/policy-data-oversigh… Midnight hits. 2 hours go by. No update. The shutdown market tanks from 99¢ to 80¢ as traders start pricing in the risk that OPM wouldn’t update in time - meaning the market could resolve as if the shutdown never ended. Then comes the play of the night: User Tangent starts loading up - nearly 400,000 shares in the 80¢ range. Finally, at 6:28AM, OPM updates the site: shutdown officially over. Tangent walks away with ~$70,000 profit.
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Highly recommend you guys check this guy out He’s run up $1K to close to $30k in not much longer than a month Very sharp new mentions trader and not afraid to size up as portfolio increases I love seeing new people kill it
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BREAKING: We have $10K on Zohran Mamdani
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Road to $100K on Kalshi - Week 8 Recap Total P/L: +$60,790 This Week: +$1,591 Past 4 Weeks: Week 7: +$2,759 Week 6: +$2,687 Week 5: +$2,841 Week 4: +$2,235 UNACCEPTABLE PERFORMANCE THIS WEEK
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If your childhood looked like this, you will make it on Kalshi
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Road to $100K Profit on Kalshi Week in Review Total P/L: +$56,440 This Week: +$2,687 We’re up $10,700 in our first month of livestreaming every trade and position Strap in. Lock in. Tune in - LIVE on X & YouTube daily
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This is what peak performance looks like
The people behind the prediction market Kalshi, where people can place wagers on everything from elections and sports contests to the anticipated bridesmaids at Taylor Swift's wedding, say its users trade a billion dollars every week. But as prediction markets are expanding, this burgeoning business model is coming under the scrutiny of some state regulators and attorneys general. cbsn.ws/4i2SiBZ
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Everyone thinks I’m just a mention market enjoyer. In reality, I’m a deep technologist and scientist.
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Why would Powell even say “rate”? What is he a food reviewer or something? What is he expected to rate?
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Just quit my job. Content about to 10x next week
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Mention Markets have some insane edges. Since 2022, Capital One has sponsored the World Series and donates to charity for every walk-off. In every Game 1, the broadcast mentions "Walk Off" while explaining the promo - and it traded at 50%. 2022 Video - piped.video/QjmQlbKArvM?si=LXe0… 2023 Video - piped.video/ds-RCR17xgM?si=zdow… 2024 Video - piped.video/gMm3EODDb6w?si=2h_L… Credit to @Jerkboxx for finding this (I gave him a cut)
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LIVE OUTSIDE ROCKEFELLER CENTER LESS THAN 5 HOURS TO THE DEBATE
NYC MAYORAL DEBATE - LIVE 5:30 PM ET 5:30 - Debate preview w/ @ZhouJaron 6:00 - Mention market plays w/ @Foster (Kalshi’s #1 mentions trader) 6:30 - Pro poker legend @Joeingram1 7:00 - Live debate reactions + play-by-play w/ @locksybet nitter.app/i/broadcasts/1YqGolZor…
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The adrenaline of election night trading hits different Ben calls Jay Jones at 65% → we fire the trade Seconds later, Jay Jones rockets to 90%
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How Trump talks when I have NO China 3+ and Iran 3+ mentions on Kalshi
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Replying to @DemocraticWins
I love how it’s just trump talking the entire time
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A live debate between the largest YES and NO holders on a market. That’s the content I want to see
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Prediction Markets are in their bullposting era
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Wow - a trader up $1.4M in politics just came on stream Hearing how he approaches these markets was a humbling ego check I’m going to be a lot more cautious expanding beyond mention markets
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WHY DID POWELL HAVE TO SAY "BALANCE SHEET"
JPOWELL DELIVERING FED SPEECH IN 5 MINUTES WE MAKE $2,500 IF HE DOESN'T SAY BALANCE SHEET TUNE IN LIVE
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HUGE GUEST TONIGHT @LoganLajTrading $500 to $100K on Kalshi in Under a Month >How he did it >Trading Strategies >What's next for him Live on X & Youtube - 6PM ET
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I said I need to bond more Bond #1 at a very high APY
Replying to @PredMTrader
Takeaways >I need to start sizing up more >I need to start “Bonding” more to put idle cash to use. Have already started this with the Bad Bunny Spotify market >I need to automate more through use of API and other tools
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Be GrandeTop10 >Study music charts for 12 years >Predict Billboard rankings for fun >Become an actual certified music predictor >Discover Kalshi + music markets >Use those skills to print on music rankings >Turn $4K → $50K in your first year >Use the profits to pay for grad school Left out the part where he became the world’s biggest Ariana Grande fan - but seriously, one of the coolest come-up stories.
Can’t believe this is real. I hit 50K profit (combined wins & losses) on @Kalshi. This has changed my life so much and the addition of more & more music markets thanks to @Ianmakesmarkets has been a tremendous help getting me here. Thank you so much @luanalopeslara @mansourtarek_
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Me 1 month ago: “Once I’m in the new apartment the production quality gonna go crazy.” The production quality 1 month later:
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I spoke to him for 20 minutes and he made me question everything. Interestingly, he is unique in actually recommending people read the Kalshi comments section on markets.
KALSHI TRADER HIGHLIGHT @iabvek is the most profitable public trader with $1.45M in trading profit. Starting with $100 heading into 2016, he hit two big trades: Democrats to win the Nevada Senate and the West Virginia governor's race. His biggest win was the 2024 popular vote margin market. These days, he trades with a small team he met through Discord. They pool money, share models, and catch each other's blind spots. He recommends working with smart people and reading the comment section on Kalshi. A random comment once helped his team spot a massive modeling error in New York vote counts. His advice to new traders? "Trade on conventional wisdom, and then try to find some factor on top of that to really give you an edge... Even bad ideas are valuable. You only need one good one." Go big or go home.
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If sportsbooks had to display their odds in probabilities, everyone would be wondering why binary events add up to 110-120%+
Love using the different numbers on Polymarket. They make things easy and value their audience unlike their competitors.
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We literally went 17 for 18 BTW Only loss was YES on China at 40c
Earnings Season kicks off tomorrow with 5 calls (Starbucks, Meta, Chipotle, Microsoft, Google) Here’s how I’m playing the Kalshi Mention Markets Starbucks – 4:15 PM ✅ YES – Holiday (< 90c): frequent mention, holiday season = bond ✅ YES – Protein (< 90c): new Protein Cold Foam launch ❌ NO – Comparable Sales (< 33c): rarely mentioned recently ❌ NO – Pumpkin Spice (< 50c): usually Q3 only, already discussed Chipotle – 4:30 PM ✅ YES – Supply Chain (< 90c): comes up almost every call ❌ NO – Automation (< 70c): historically low mentions Google – 5:30 PM ✅ YES – Acquisition (< 70c): broad ways they use the term ❌ NO – Profitability (< 35c): alot of recent mentions but less when zooming out ❌ NO – Regulator (< 65c): rarely appears ❌ NO – Wiz (< 70c): no reason for update now Meta – 4:30 PM ✅ YES – Hiring (< 80c): constant topic ❌ NO – Virtual Reality (< 40c): mentions fading ❌ NO – Algorithm (< 45c): very rare lately ❌ NO – Channel (< 65c): brief spike last call only ✅ YES – China (< 40c): common historically, missed last call Microsoft – 5:30 PM ✅ YES – Microsoft 365 (< 95c): obvious ✅ YES – Teams (< 95c): obvious ❌ NO – Cybersecurity (< 75c): hasn’t come up recently
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The #1 Ariana Grande fan on the internet… also happens to be up $40K trading her markets on Kalshi Here’s how @TheGrandeTop10 is playing the “#1 Album” market
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There’s a perfect parallel between poker and prediction markets. In poker, the lower the stakes, the higher your win rate. As you move up, your win rate drops - but your total $ returns grow (along with the volatility). The same thing happens as your bankroll grows on prediction markets.
Everyone assumes scale makes it easier. In reality: $100 → $1,000 is easy $10,000 → $100,000 is hard $100,000 → $1,000,000 is brutal The bigger your bankroll, the harder it gets
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Road to $100K on Kalshi - Week 9 Recap Total P/L: +$67,407 This Week: +$6,680 Past 4 Weeks: Week 8: +$1,591 Week 7: +$2,759 Week 6: +$2,687 Week 5: +$2,841 We are up OVER $20K since we started streaming daily 2 months ago LOCK IN
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I am formally announcing that I will no longer be purchasing NO shares on mention markets as YES shares are significantly better for content
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THE SWIFTIE STREAM - LIVE WEDNESDAY 7PM PST Joined by a Swiftie who has never heard of prediction markets but has: >Attended the Eras Tour concert TWICE >Attended the 1989 World Tour concert >Attended 40 total concerts in the past year >Made me money nitter.app/i/broadcasts/1YpJkkMwq…
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2 months into the #Polymarket road to $100K challenge and we have officially broken through $10K . Just the beginning!
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You guys aren’t ready for the NYC Mayoral debate stream tomorrow…stay tuned
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BREAKING: I am now paying $40/month for X Premium+ 1st X article dropping soon - I promise no AI slop
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“Prediction Markets are gambling” Bro, you can literally be THE HOUSE on prediction markets
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LIVESTREAMING on X TONIGHT - 6:30 PM PST Special guest @Foster the #1 mention market trader on Kalshi by profit making $180,000 in 2025 alone. Learn from the best - DO NOT MISS THIS
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Spotted in the Kalshi discord I may need to start playing weather markets
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Ole Miss beats Georgia tomorrow BOOKMARK THIS
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Highly recommend everyone watch this interview Gaeten is one of the most profitable culture and music traders of all time and just overall a great guy There’s a ton of value to be gleamed from this and it’s really well edited
The man who made 500k Predicting Movies, Politics, and Pop Culture Volume 007: Finding your Niche & Perfecting edges w/ @GaetenD & @Koios9
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Continuing to build out the studio The PMT interview hour Coming soon
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Crazy Price Action on Kalshi’s Super Bowl Halftime Market 🚨 >Ten days ago, Bad Bunny was trading at 2% (50-1) >Yesterday morning he surged to nearly 80% >Seconds before the announcement, he cratered back down to 10% >Minutes later, Bad Bunny officially named headliner Wild to cover this live
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Live trading mention markets = instant reaction profits >JD Vance made a surprise entrance during Leavitt’s press speech >Her speaking time shrank → we hammered NO shares >Cashed out for +$400 on Kalshi, all in real time Watch it happen live
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I could not be more bullish at this point
so it’s 1am and zohran just showed up at the gay bar
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$100 → $400 live-trading Trump’s speech on Kalshi >Trump kept naming EU countries instead of saying “Europe” >We grabbed 400 NO shares for $100 live >He never said “Europe/European” once Watch it unfold live
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Prediction markets are bad for you? Then why have I spent this week listening to: 10 earnings calls (plus transcripts) Taylor Swift on repeat Every White House announcement
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Please God don’t let this hit tomorrow
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