You can see our full strategy breakdown of the World Cup Survivor contests with Part 1 (free) and the full Group collision grid poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
and Part 2 ($$), which dives into specific team odds to advance, specific pairings to avoid, and 50 potential entry combos that work together poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
NFL favorites of 4.5+ points are 12-0 straight up this season.
Dating back to Week 11 of last year, they’re 52-8 SU (86.7%).
Those favs are also 36-23-1 ATS (60.8%) over that span.
(via closing line @BetIQ_ custom trends too)
No. 1 Myth in NFL Survivor:
"Don't pick divisional games unless you have to."
The data doesn’t back that up, yet players follow this arbitrary rule every year.
Thanks @beatingthebook@VSiNLive for spotlighting it.
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 5)
Projections as of Tuesday:
1. ARI 32%
2. IND 25%
3. DET 16%
4. BUF 10%
5. LAR 8%
Follow for updates as we move closer to the weekend.
#CircaSurvivor
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 4)
Projections as of Saturday AM:
1. BUF 31%
2. HOU 24%
3. DET 15%
4. LAC 8%
5. NE 8%
6. DEN 7%
7. GB 4%
Numbers announced 9 pm ET @VSiNLive on The Football Contest Show w/ @MattBrownM2@Somobomb18 from @CircaSports#CircaSurvivor
The top two picks in Circa Survivor go down.
Nearly cutting the pool in half with just two games.
If you asked for more carnage, then you got it in Week 5.
Derek Stevens on @VSiNLive:
“I think it will be north of 50% of the pool on Buffalo.”
👉 We project Bills 34% picked in Circa Survivor.
Opportunity to use Texans, while saving Buffalo could open +EV spots later.
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 6)
Projections as of Friday AM:
1. GB 42%
2. LAR 17%
3. PHI 8% - ❌ Loss on TNF
T4. IND 7%
T4. PIT 7%
T4. LVR 7%
Will be interesting to see how many entries went down with the Eagles. 🦅
Actual numbers revealed Saturday 9 pm ET on Football Contest Show @VSiNLive@CircaSports with @MattBrownM2@Somobomb18@JeffreyBenson12@DerekJStevens#CircaSurvivor
MOST POPULAR Circa Million Picks:
2-3 record in Week 4
Now 5-15 on the season
🔹Week 1 = 0-5
🔹Week 2 = 2-3
🔹Week 3 = 1-4
🔹Week 4 = 2-3
Still without a winning week.
#circamillionsvii#CircaMillions
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 9)
Projections as of Tuesday AM:
1. LAR 47%
2. LAC 25%
3. GB 23%
4. NE 2%
T5. BAL 1%
T5. JAC 1%
Follow for updates as we move closer to the weekend.
#CircaSurvivor
How many Circa Survivor winners will there be this year? 🏆
Over/Under: 22.5
That's what @JasonLisk projected after crunching the numbers.
Which side are you taking? 🤔
Tough Rams loss on TNF.
🔹We estimated 19% had them in Circa Survivor
🔹Means around 2,400 entries knocked out.
🔹Leaving ~10,000 entries heading into Sunday.
First major wipeout of the season. #CircaSurvivor
Circa Survivor Week 4 Pick Rate 🏈
ACTUAL count as of Saturday PM:
1. BUF 30%
2. HOU 27%
3. DEN 13%
4. DET 11%
5. NE 7%
24 NO PICKS
25 total teams selected.
What surprises you most? 🤔
(according to @DerekJStevens & @JeffreyBenson12 on Football Contest Show @VSiNLive@CircaSports)
#CircaSurvivor
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 7)
Projections as of Tuesday:
1. NE 31%
2. KC 25%
3. CHI 14%
4. PIT 13% - TNF
5. DEN 9%
Follow for updates as we move closer to the weekend.
#CircaSurvivor
Since 2010, WINLESS teams in NFL Week 3 are:
✅ 59–35–3 ATS (62.8%)
vs. opponents with at least one win.
8 teams fit the trend this week (hold your nose) ⤵️
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 7)
Projections as of Thursday AM:
1. NE 28%
2. KC 24%
3. CHI 20% 📈
4. PIT 13% - TNF
5. DEN 8%
Moves: CHI up from 14% to 20%. Small📉in NE.
FOLLOW for updates as we move closer to the weekend!
#CircaSurvivor
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 5)
Projections UPDATED Thursday AM:
1. ARI 31%
2. IND 23%
3. LAR 19% 📈
4. DET 15%
5. BUF 5%
Rams biggest mover (8% to 19%) after 49ers injury news.
Full analysis in the #CircaSurvivor Strategy Show (link below) ⬇️
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 8)
Projections as of Tuesday:
1. IND 32%
2. ATL 20%
3. CIN 16%
4. NE 9%
5. TB 9%
Follow for updates as we move closer to the weekend.
#CircaSurvivor
Entries that missed a pick (auto-eliminated) in Circa Survivor so far — $1,000 per entry:
W1: 24
W2: 19
W3: 13
W4: 24
Total no-pick eliminations: 80 → $80,000 left on the table.
#CircaSurvivor
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 11)
Projections as of Saturday AM:
1. NE 41% - W on TNF
2. HOU 18%
3. GB 11%
4. PIT 10%
5. BAL 8%
Follow for updates on everything NFL Survivor & Circa Survivor. 🔥
Actual numbers posted Sat 9 pm ET on @VSiNLive@CircaSports Football Contest Show w/ @MattBrownM2@Somobomb18@JeffreyBenson12@DerekJStevens#CircaSurvivor
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 8)
Projections as of Wednesday:
1. IND 32%
2. ATL 25% 📈- was 20%
3. CIN 16%
4. NE 10%
5. PHI 6%
ATL moves up to 25%. TB moves down to 2%.
Follow for updates as we move closer to the weekend.
#CircaSurvivor
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 6)
Projections as of Tuesday:
1. GB 44%
2. LAR 12%
3. PHI 7% - TNF
4. LVR 7%
T5. WAS 6% - MNF
T5. PIT 6%
Follow for updates as we move closer to the weekend. #CircaSurvivor
Rams NFL Survivor Pick Popularity:
🔹 Main Splash Pools: 22-24%
🔹 Yahoo Survival: 9%
🔹 Supercontest Survivor: 32.5% (26 of 80)
Interested to see where they stand in #CircaSurvivor
NFL Survivor Projected Pick % for Week 5
This data is for STANDARD POOLS
Will have a separate post for Circa Survivor.
Anything jump out as surprising? 🤔
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 8)
ACTUAL %s of 4,214 alive entries:
1. IND 34.46%
2. ATL 32.91%
3. CIN 18.15%
4. NE 6.98%
5. PHI 2.11%
6. BUF 2.09%
7. KC 1.92%
8. TB 0.64%
16 entries with Chargers on TNF.
6 on Ravens.
4 no picks. #CircaSurvivor
Wild stat via @VSiNLive@beatingthebook:
Only 2.76% of Circa Survivor entries eliminated so far in Week 1.
We have NFL Survivor elimination data from major national sites going back to 2015. This is the lowest Week 1 exit rate BY FAR.
Prev low: 11.4% out Wk 1 (2019)
The Chiefs narrowly over the Patriots for the most popular pick of the week, with the Bears also getting close to 20%.
Over 70% of picks on those three teams.
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 7)
Projections as of Saturday AM:
1. NE 31%
2. KC 26%
3. CHI 22%
4. DEN 9%
5. PIT 5% - loss on TNF
Will find out on the Football Contest Show @VSiNLive with @MattBrownM2@Somobomb18 at 9 pm ET.
Since 2010, WINLESS teams in NFL Week 4 are:
👉 31–17–1 ATS (64.6%)
vs opponents with at least one win.
2 teams fit the trend this week (hold your nose):
🔹Saints +15.5 (at Bills)
🔹Giants +6.5 (vs Chargers)
Are you betting either of these? 🤔
Most Popular Circa Survivor Picks (Week 4)
Projections as of Tuesday:
1. BUF 34%
2. HOU 25%
3. DET 12%
4. DEN 7%
5. GB 6%
Follow for updates as we move closer to the weekend.
#CircaSurvivor
“To win Survivor pools, you have to be different from how other people pick… and be different in ways that give you an edge”
@JasonLisk uses Week 7 to illustrate optimal NFL Survivor pool strategy:
What if you could map the safest NFL Survivor path for the whole season using win odds?
We ran the numbers with our @PoolGenius NFL Survivor Optimal Path tool — here’s the most conservative 18-week route:
Week 1 – Cardinals at NO – 70% win odds
Week 2 – 49ers at NO – 75%
Week 3 – Seahawks vs NO – 74%
Week 4 – Lions vs CLE – 82%
Week 5 – Vikings vs CLE – 70%
Week 6 – Steelers vs CLE – 73%
Week 7 – Bears vs NO – 77%
Week 8 – Bengals vs NYJ – 75%
Week 9 – Rams vs NO – 80%
Week 10 – Broncos vs LV – 69%
Week 11 – Patriots vs NYJ – 66%
Week 12 – Ravens vs NYJ – 84%
Week 13 – Dolphins vs NO – 69%
Week 14 – Buccaneers vs NO – 79%
Week 15 – Eagles vs LV – 79%
Week 16 – Chiefs at TEN – 73%
Week 17 – Commanders vs DAL – 65%
Week 18 – Bills vs NYJ – 84%
Most faded: Saints (7x)
Next: Jets (4x)
Third: Browns (3x)
Titans? Only faded once...interesting.
Can you find a better path?
Note: No double-pick weeks, no special slates: just 1 pick per week factored into the settings.
The PoolGenius tool builds this as a starting map. From here, you factor in pick popularity, expected value, future value, and your specific pool rules to find the true optimal path and adjust on a week-to-week basis (see below).
Since 2010, WINLESS teams in NFL Week 4 are:
👉 31–17–1 ATS (64.6%)
vs opponents with at least one win.
2 teams fit the trend this week (hold your nose):
🔹Saints +15.5 (at Bills)
🔹Giants +6.5 (vs Chargers)
Are you betting either of these? 🤔
We’ve hit the “Davis Mills road start in NFL Survivor” part of the season.
We project Texans to be picked ~20% in Circa Survivor and ~15% in standard pools.
Since 2000, only 7 teams have lost a game where they were favored by 7+ points AND led by 10+ entering the 4th quarter.
Two happened this year:
1️⃣ Packers (at Browns)
2️⃣ Cardinals (vs Titans)
The last before that = KC vs CHI in 2015.
Eagles lose on TNF — around 6-11% owned in various NFL Survivor pools.
Our latest estimate is ~7.7% in #CircaSurvivor which is lower than our original 11% projection.
How many had Eagles in your pool?
Bills NFL Survivor Pick Popularity:
🔹Main Splash Pools: 15-16%
🔹Yahoo Survival: 27%
🔹Survivor Bowl: 19%
🔹Supercontest Survivor: 23%
Pretty much in the expected range.
Will be interesting to see where they stand in #CircaSurvivor
NFL teams next game after coach fired (since 2010):
🔹20-13 ATS = 60.6%
🔹17-16 SU, +12.82 units on ML
Titans fire HC Brian Callahan, now +7 vs NE on Sunday.
(full article & breakdown below⤵️)
Week 11 Circa Millions selections. Last team out: square dog Broncos +3.5. Loved them all week, but made decision to toss them and add Jags +3 at very last second. We all know how these choices usually end 😆 GL to everyone.
10 Worst NFL Survivor Beats since 2010 💀
We’ve seen some brutal ones this season (two made the list).
Where do the Cardinals rank? 🤔
Let’s count them down 👇
NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks:
🔹Top 6 Candidates
🔹Odds & Popularity
🔹When to Play vs. Save
We’ve helped players win $6.6M+ in Survivor since 2017.
If you skipped BUF, here’s how to handle Week 3👇
Behind the scenes 🎥
Circa Survivor szn 3 @VSiNLive@CircaSports
Hat tip to @JasonLisk for rocking the PoolGenius orange.
-250 to win Best Use of a Secondary Color in a Docuseries.
“The Texans have the same win odds as Seattle last week in the market… and half the ownership.”
@JasonLisk & @StephenAndress1 on if the Texans make sense for NFL Survivor Week 4:
Circa Survivor has 12,406 entries (66%) alive heading into MNF.
Where the field stands for MNF doubleheader:
🔹 DEN = 1,830 entries (13%)
🔹 MIA = 54 entries (0.4%)
🔹 CIN = 1 entry
🔹 NYJ = 1 entry
Plus, 55 entries remain in #CircaGrandissimo and 6 on DEN.
The Rams came in much higher than people were projecting. The late steam and Thursday pick deadline had a clear impact. A unique week with the line moving six points, and the game being played Thursday. And then people certainly made adjustments to their picks after the Rams' loss.
#CircaSurvivor Week 5 picks are in — and the carnage is worse than expected.
The Rams’ OT loss to the 49ers on Thursday night eliminated 3,524 entries as the top pick (28.4 percent of the field).
Throw in five no-picks and that leaves 8,875 entries heading into today’s games.
More in Contest Hub: bit.ly/47spDmB
Playing NFL Survivor?
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The highest ownership percentages in the @RickRunGood 500K OAD World Championship for the Mexico Open:
1) Akshay Bhatia: 16.66%
2) Kurt Kitayama: 10.29%
3) Stephen Jaeger: 10.23%
4) Sam Stevens: 10.02%
5) Rasmus Hojgaard: 7.32%
NFL Survivor Projected Pick % for Week 4
This data is for Standard Pools.
Will have a separate post for Circa Survivor.
Expecting HOU ⬆️ and DET ⬇️ in sharper pools.
Survivor Bowl Pick Breakdown - Week 6
🔹79 entries remaining
🔹7 lost with Eagles on TNF
🔹Steelers 2nd most popular this week
Full leaderboard: survivorbowl.poolgenius.com/
Circa Survivor Availability (Week 11):
DEN 6%
LAR 12%
BUF 18%
GB 23%
DET 24%
SEA 29%
ARI 31%
NE 52%
KC 54%
Want another team’s %?
Comment and we'll reply with it ⤵️
The $100k entry Circa Grandissimo NFL Survivor Contest @CircaSports received its 2nd contestant over the weekend.
Signed up anonymously via @FootballContest@_FoxyProxy
Full scoop of the guaranteed $1.5 million high-stakes NFL Survivor Contest:
poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
Vikings playing overseas for 2nd straight week.
This has been done twice — those teams covered both times:
🔹2024 Jags: -7 vs Patriots, won 32-16
🔹2023 Jags: +5 vs Bills, won 25–20 outright
Certainly a travel angle worth noting.
Vikings -3.5 vs Browns on Sunday.
Another entry into the $100K Circa Grandissimo NFL Survivor: that makes three now.
Per @MikePalmCirca on @VSiNLive, the latest is a local, regular bettor at Circa.
Palm also set the O/U at 30.5 total entries, and noted that NFL Survivor is up 23% @CircaSports vs last year.
Since 2010, 17 teams scored 0 points in a game during the first four weeks of the season.
👉 They went 13-4 ATS (76.5%) in their next game.
Falcons lost 0-30 at Panthers last week.
Now -2.5 vs Commanders on Sunday
Circa Survivor Show Week 3 🎥
“If you don’t have the Cardinals available… you might want to save the Bills for Week 5”
@JasonLisk and @slimbach21 on if it makes sense to use Bills NOW in #CircaSurvivor or later:
Two 90%+ survival weeks to start 2025 feels crazy… but it’s not that rare.
Circa Survivor history (100 total weeks, 18 split weeks) shows:
🔹 39% of weeks: 90%+ survival
🔹 10% of weeks: 80–89.9%
🔹 15% of weeks: under 50%
Last season alone, 9 of 20 weeks hit 89%+ survival
@VSiNLive@beatingthebook@KelleyBydlon@MattBrownM2
🏀Bracketology in November? Absolutely. Our first episode, powered by PoolGenius’ preseason 2025–26 model, breaks down projected top seeds, rising mid-majors, and shifting conference power. Follow to stay ahead of every bracket storyline heading into March.
piped.video/_WM3XgpdRIg?si=M35P… via @YouTube
Projected Circa Survivor Pick Popularity (Week 3)
Just how popular will Seattle be?
We'll see how it all shakes out with the Football Contest Show at 9 pm ET @VSiNLive w/ @MattBrownM2@Somobomb18
NEW EPISODE 🚨
Circa Survivor Strategy Show (Week 5) 🎥
🔹 No. 1 Decision Point this week
🔹 What about Rams on TNF?
🔹 Where to take a stand vs. crowd
@JasonLisk & @slimbach21 cover every angle of #CircaSurvivor Week 5 ⬇️
🔗 piped.video/Ay53t7th4nQ
NFL favorites of 4.5 points or more this season:
🔹 Weeks 1-2 = 12-0 straight up
🔹 Weeks 3-5 = 12-7-1 straight up
Favorites dominated early, but the pendulum has officially swung back.
(via closing line @BetIQ_ custom trends tool)
NEW EPISODE 🚨
NFL Survivor Week 4 Picks 🎥
@JasonLisk & @StephenAndress1 break down their top plays, future value planning, and whether it’s time to pick — or save — the Bills.
🔗 piped.video/4MkC2pqTJJg
5-1 in NFL Upset Picks over last two weeks:
✅ DEN +105 @ HOU
❌ NYG +127 vs SF
✅ ARI +130 @ DAL
✅ NO +215 @ CAR
✅ NE +120 @ TB
✅ PHI +110 @ GB
Get our Top 3 NFL Upset Picks every Thu (FREE):
➡️ teamrankings.com/newsletters…
With St. John's going down, the public just lost:
- 20% of its Final Four teams from the West
- 11% of its finalists from the left side of the bracket
- 5% of its champ picks
🚨 New for Circa Survivor players 🚨
We just rolled out our Circa Survivor Picks Tool (beta) -free to use. 🏈
If you’re in Circa Survivor - or any NFL Survivor pool with holiday slates - this tool will help you navigate the season like a pro.
🔗 poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
🚨 NFL Survivor Picks Week 2 video just dropped 🚨
@JasonLisk & @StephenAndress1 break down the burning question:
Should you use the Ravens now…or save them for later?
Plus - the best alternatives if you’re passing on BAL.
🔗 piped.video/uQNrLoLfv04?feature…