Real-Time Housing Price Feeds, Indices, and Market Intelligence | Trusted by CNBC, the WSJ, Polymarket, and more | Powering @Parcl
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We just shipped a completely new Parcl Research App.
This is a full rebuild. New categories, new use cases, and a very different way to explore housing data.
🧵👇
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As the media and the housing ecosystem is absorbing May sales data, traders around the world have already priced in June.
How? They use our institutional daily updating home price feeds.
These are used by hedge funds in quantitative trading strategies to get ahead on equities that have a high reliance on home values.
These are used in prediction markets like the one outlined below.
These are used in perpetual future exchanges.
$6B traded to date from publicly observable trading (not accounting for private trading)
These are free and public on our site if you want to get up to speed on June reads -> link in comments
UPDATE: With 2 days left in June, @Polymarket is showing an implied probability of 51% that US median home values will land between $433k and $435k on June 30
This is on the coattails of May numbers releasing showing an +$8,400 MoM bump in median home sales prices raising it to $424,900.
A jump to $433k would be another $8,100 MoM increase.
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Introducing Property Manager Intelligence
Know who manages and owns every rental in the US
Tap into it directly from the AI tools you already use
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Use cases we now enable:
→ Vendors selling to PMs: find every manager by fit for what you sell
→ Investors + acquirers: surface and analyze roll-up targets
→ PMs: see where you stand vs the field and defend your book
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Every operator in the US rental market, mapped and refreshed daily
Learn more and get access ⬇️
app.parcllabs.com/property-m…
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Parcl Labs retweeted
BREAKING: Home builders have exhausted all tricks - now cutting prices deeply to find buyers
Austin leads with 60% of new construction units for sale now slashing prices
Denver, Homosassa Springs, San Antonio, Punta Gorda and Cape Coral close behind with 50-57% of new construction units cutting prices
Builders are cutting 10 to 20% off original asking price trying to find buyers
Price cuts are the very last thing a home builder wants to do. It means they have worked through the usual tricks such as rate buy downs which keeps prices elevated to no avail
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Parcl Labs retweeted
Major homebuilders are starting to aggressively cut asking prices to find buyers across Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Tampa, and Lakeland Florida.
What we are looking at is a motivated seller index by builder, by market. It is a representation of how aggressively homebuilders are cutting prices and how quickly are those price cuts occurring.
It's a score between 0 and 10. 0 means no motivations signals, a 10 indicates an extreme fire sale situation. Anything above 5 is indicative of active price cuts, increasing frequency between those price cuts, and deeper cuts.
What we are seeing is major builders in Texas including Lennar, KB Home and Pulte are marking units down lower. This is the last line of defense. This means they have exhausted concessions, rate buy downs, etc.
Meritage Homes is uniquely doing this in Atlanta. Interestingly, Atlanta has the highest concentration of institutional landlords in the country with many zip codes having more than 1 in 10 homes owned by institutional investors.
Meritage Homes, Toll Brothers, and Dream Finders Homes are aggressively cutting in Tampa.
Will be watching if more cards start turning red here across markets this summer as builders try to find a clearing price.
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Parcl Labs retweeted
JUST IN: As of this evening, every other home listed for sale in Arizona and Florida are cutting prices.
Keep in mind, Florida accounts for 1 in 7 homes for sale nationwide.
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The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act passed Congress and is headed to Trump's desk.
We mapped every investor, market, and home impacted by the new institutional investor rules:
app.parcllabs.com/research/i…
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Finest resolution: one glowing dot for every one of 5.7M homes built since 2020, at its exact location.
The country draws itself. The Sun Belt + Mountain West blaze. The big coastal blue metros stay dark.
You can see the divide at the level of individual rooftops.
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The boomtowns built a TON and prices still ripped:
Raleigh +13.7% stock / +56% price
Boise +13.5% / +57%
Nashville +12.6% / +54%
Meanwhile NYC added +1.2% stock and led the country in price growth at +79%.
Demand didn't differ. Supply did.
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Zoom into the 43 biggest metros and the gap widens: red-metro housing stock grew 2.9× faster than blue (+7.0% vs +2.5%).
But here's the twist - building fast did NOT cost price growth.
Correlation between supply growth and price growth: basically zero (−0.15).
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Group all 50 states by who controls state govt (governor + both legislative chambers), 2020–2026:
🔴 GOP trifecta (23 states): +4.1%
🟣 Divided (10): +3.1%
🔵 Dem trifecta (18): +2.4%
Top of the list: Utah +9.3%, Idaho +8.8%, Texas +7.8%.
Bottom: Illinois +0.8%, Connecticut +0.9%.
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America has a housing-supply divide, and it's not subtle.
Since 2020, states run entirely by Republicans grew their housing stock 1.7× faster than states run entirely by Democrats.
We mapped it three ways. 🧵
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A major institutional investor has 8% of its portfolio for sale
In its densest zips, it now accounts for ~1 in 4 homes on the market
Distress, or a deliberate pivot?
See who it is:
app.parcllabs.com/research/a…
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Parcl Labs data featured in @CrainsDetroit on where home sellers are still positioned to profit - and where they aren't
1 in 14 Detroit listings is positioned to sell at a loss, vs. 1 in 3 in Austin
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