4️⃣Trump 2.0: Tough Inauguration Outlook
Trump 2.0 Looks to Weigh on Markets
-US markets face early challenges in Trump’s 2nd term: with equities erasing gains, credit markets underperforming, and the S&P500 near its 100-day moving average.
-Trump's policies appear more extreme than expected: with radical signals on tariffs, tax cuts, immigration, and foreign relations increasing uncertainty.
-Markets face higher hurdles than in 2016: with elevated valuations (higher S&P500 P/E) and real yields (230bps vs. 50bps), straining risk assets.
-Trump’s inauguration faces rising bond yields, higher oil prices, and falling equities, with the Fed likely to pause rates. Equities remain unattractive, and implied volatility looks undervalued.