A lot of people have been interested in farming at Polymarket especially after the rumors of them raising at $15B.
The problem is that most people don't know their way around it, so they end up losing and not making a consistent trading streak.
I compiled 10 safe bets that I think are risk-free to generate some volume and my thesis behind it:
1/ Bet No for "Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?"
This has to be the safest bet. The odds are currently at 1%. Even if the event actually happened, you wouldn't be able to claim the reward, and I don't think the world is ending soon.
As a Christian, it's said that when Jesus comes back, the end of the world will follow. At the moment, we're living in the biggest revolutionary moment of our time with AI, robotics, and other technologies shaping a new world. Not trying to predict anything, but this just doesn't seem like the right time for everything to end.
2/ Bet No for "Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?"
As we already know, there's a lot of mystery around who Satoshi is. We've had many people speculated Hal Finney, Nick Szabo, Adam Back, etc. but no one has ever been confirmed.
If Donald Trump were Satoshi, when did he ever show any proof or credentials in blockchain or cryptography? Back in 2019, Trump publicly said he's not a fan of Bitcoin or crypto. Would he really say that if he were the creator? Doesn't make sense.
3/ Bet No for "Tether insolvent in 2025?"
Nothing is impossible in crypto, but Tether has to be one of the few companies that's too big to fail. Just last year, they made over $13B in profit, making them the most profitable crypto company by revenue over 10x Tron, which is second in that category.
They've been reinvesting their profits into stablecoin infrastructure and global payments, like their investment in Plasma (a stablechain project). By the end of Q3 2025, Tether already reported over $10B in profit year-to-date. The possibility of them going bankrupt is very thin at this point.
4/ Bet Yes for "MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch > $2B"
MegaETH is one of the most innovative L2s we've seen in a while. Premarket valuation topped at $6B, and if we benchmark it with the largest L2s by FDV ~
$MNT at over $8B ~ $2B is a very realistic target.
5/ Bet No for "USDC stablecoin depeg by December 31?"
USDC has been consistently the second-largest stablecoin by supply, and it continues to grow despite competition. The only major depeg happened in 2023 during the SVB bank collapse, when USDC dropped about 13-14 cents below peg.
Since then, they've diversified banking partners and reserve holdings, and they now publish monthly reserve disclosures and attestations to show their financial health. Unless there's another major black-swan event, it's highly unlikely USDC will depeg again.
Moreover, many big crypto institutions like Coinbase depend on USDC it's too critical to fail without external support, similar to how Bybit handled their hack recently.
I'll stop here to see if this gets enough attention. If it does, I'll release the concluding part.
GM.