We were on the air for over 5 hours continually and this undoubtedly was and will forever be one of the most horrifying radar images we have seen. This was an upper-tier tornado of which has produced extreme damage and deaths across three states.

8PM EDT: This is nothing short of astronomical. I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe you the storms small eye and intensity. 897mb pressure with 180 MPH max sustained winds and gusts 200+ MPH. This is now the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded by pressure on this side of the world. The eye is TINY at nearly 3.8 miles wide. This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth's atmosphere over this ocean water can produce.

Remarkable artwork from the lord above here. Rare “fire and ice” on Pensacola Beach, FL today! 📸: Dan Dunn

5th* strongest

This is getting really bad. Preparations should be underway for all of central Florida. Expect mandatory evacuations to begin probably Sunday at some point on the west coast. If this parallels I-4, this is one of the costliest hurricanes in Florida history. Track is key though. Small changes shift the overall impact and surge.

HELENE will be a MAJOR impact well inland. Georgia, the western Carolina's, Tennessee and Kentucky! This is actually a rare meteorological setup for this side of the world. This is called the "Fujiwara Effect" -- notice how major hurricane Helene gets boomeranged NW and around a low pressure aloft over west TN. Think like two planets orbiting each other than consolidating into one. This complicated, and uncommon meteorological process will help keep the forward speed of the remnants very high. Destructive wind gusts throughout central Georgia, Atlanta area and east TN. This won't be like Ike remnants in 2008 in TN/KY but I think will surprise many with the inland wind gusts Friday well inland. I could see 50-60 MPH gusts all the way to the Ohio River solely due to this complex meteorological phasing. Most times, a hurricane this time of the year goes NE, not hooks a hard NW (left) turn when inland. Really, a rare occurrence.

HORRIBLE: WORST CASE scenario is unfolding. Really, I am near a loss of words. "Last chance to protect your life at all costs" is the words from the NHC. Melissa is about to make landfall at its strongest intensity. A humanitarian disaster is about to unfold. The hurricane hunters detected 252 MPH gusts 300 feet off the ocean surface. 185 MPH max sustained winds and 220+ MPH gusts in the eyewall about to obliterate Black River area.

Just insane that a single supercell has caused several different tornadoes and destructive hail over a 500+ mile path that lasted nearly 10 hours Friday night. Truly very uncommon.

Aurora viewing tonight... incredibly far south yet again! Some reports in the Bahamas already visible.

MORE SUNSHINE! Daylight increases substantially during February... over an hour more for nearly half the country! Good for the mind, body, & soul.

Meanwhile in New Hampshire… Peak gust 120 MPH & wind chill -1°F winter is coming…

St Armand's Circle in Sarasota, Florida late Tuesday evening. MAJOR rains fell with significant flooding ongoing there and Bradenton. Rain is over 10.3" just from Tuesday officially in Sarasota. In fact, 3.93" of rain fell from 7-8PM EDT Tuesday, which is the most ever observed in 1 hour in the history of Sarasota weather records (1972). Also, statistically getting this much rain in such short time is about a 1 : 1,000 year flood for this part of FL. That does not mean it happens one only every thousand years, but the chance in any given year is around 0.1%! 🎥: Via @Signia70

Not exaggerating when I say that in all of the years I have been forecasting and following weather... that this may be in the top-10 easily for most wild outputs I have ever seen from the European computer model.

WOW! Tonight's solar storm is PRODUCING quite the aurora and northern lights show across the United States. And this could be a teaser for a bigger episode Wednesday night that is not just more vibrant, but further south. Go look outside! Share your view below. Red areas is the current max naked eye visibility of the incredible aurora tonight. Currently about from Richmond to Paducah, KY to Denver, CO. Areas in yellow need a camera and outlying location to be able to see it. South of the white line does not seem in play for now. A reminder in yellow areas, the longer you can have the exposure set to take a photo on your phone, the better you will see it. Want to keep expectation vs. reality in line here.

HURRICANE MILTON: This is shaping up to be a very rare path. There is a good meteorological reason for it due to the jet stream pattern next week (it has happened before, but very limited). A landfall in Florida is a certainty next Wednesday. Notice the range out outcomes. Each line is a different model. If the eye of this hurricane went over or paralleled close to I-4 -- that is a worst case scenario in terms of overall impact and number of people impacted directly from hurricane conditions from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona and the Space Coast. The angle of attack and motion will remain SW to NE in heading... but WHERE specifically the eye tracks is still very much uncertain and will have massive implications on where the big storm surge is (remember, the south and east side of the eye in this cast) -- the strongest winds, and the corridor of significant rain and flooding (north of the eye). If you live in Central Florida or south-central Florida, I would strongly advice taking the weekend to start freshening up and getting your hurricane plan into motion. I will be getting extra batteries and food today myself.

With all this talk of New York and New Jersey earthquakes seemed like a good time to remind y’all about the real beast that has laid quietly in the eastern United States. If you are new to following me, do some research on the New Madrid fault line. Would be incredible far reaching impact if 1811 and 1812 happened in modern times again.

that's literally what the intensity was yes, your point?

Meteorologically this is a heck of a forecast. We all know in the weather-world that hurricanes "talk to each other" and influence one way or the other. Well, the hurricane models are trying to blow up "Margot" in a strong hurricane too. Depending on what that does, I feel like it could throw an extra curve ball we are not expecting in where #Lee ends up. You can see how the HAFS-B model touches their outflows together...

Updated HAFS-B model has been incredibly consistent with an absolutely remarkable intensification. Hurricane #Lee probably reaches into Category 5 this weekend. If taken verbatim (it is a model after all) -- has sustained winds possibly nearing 180 MPH. This is seriously extreme but I guess given how favorable the conditions are this thing could really get into a rare echelon of raw intensity by Saturday night. We shall see on the nitty gritty but this looks like it can really be something else at its peak strength. The HAFS-A model is slightly "weaker" with 'only' winds nearing 170 MPH over the open water this weekend. This is Saturday evening shown below, a few hundred miles NE of Puerto Rico.

As crazy as it sounds this thing may go from a tropical storm to a Cat 4 hurricane in 2 days time. Milton is SO small and already tightly wound that I think the hurricane models showing extreme intensification (barring eye wall replacement cycles) is not unreasonable on MON-TUES. Would not be a shock at all if this shot up to a Cat 4+ in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It may (hopefully) weaken a tad upon approach to landfall in Florida on Wednesday but still...

WOW! What a storm on visible satellite from GOES-17. Pressure nearing 970mb equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane. This storm is thousands of miles wide. Will produce the severe storms tonight in the PNW. A meteorological marvel from space. A perfect Fibonacci spiral.

The #PalisadesFire is absolutely exploding in West LA and is quickly moving toward homes in Pacific Palisades. The images just continue to get worse. Sadly, the weather for Wednesday calls for even worse winds gusting 60-90 MPH in the Santa Ana Mountains. Evacuate if you are in danger and follow all evacuation orders from local officials. Images from LAX and nearby Tuesday night.

5:21PM EDT: **CATASTROPHIC TORNADO** in the Vero Beach, FL area. This is a rare tornado for Florida. This is a large, destructive tornado. Get to immediate shelter and cover your head in Nevins, Riomar, eastern Vero Beach IMMEDIATELY. Debris ball 2+ miles wide.

Tonight will probably go down as one of the most prolific QLCS tornado producing events in Chicago recorded weather history. This may end up being classified a derecho. NWS Chicago Issued 16+ Tornado Warnings this evening, their most in a single day since April 20th, 2004, and which is also the 3rd most ever in one day in the history of the NWS Chicago Office. Look at the archived chart of rotation swaths from the radar. I mean, this is bananas how many areas saw moderate to strong rotation pass over them.

HURRICANE BERYL: Basically unheard of for this early in the year. Will be a major hurricane by Monday. From there, we need to watch close into 4th of July weekend. Here are the hot off the press European model ensembles. Each line a model. I think we can confidently say *Florida is safe* from Beryl. Can not say that yet for Louisiana, Texas, and Mexico. It should weaken some around Jamaica and the central Caribbean... then end of next week could enter the Gulf, and RE-strengthen. Notice a handful of models take it to a Louisiana or TX landfall then hook the remnants up to Kentucky or Tennessee next weekend. A handful too take a landfall to Texas. But the majority are into Mexico. Any 4th of July plans to: Cancun, Cozumel eastern Mexico should follow close and prepare to alter plans in case of hurricane impact.

Been a heck of a 5-year spell of landfalls on the west coast of Florida...

TONIGHT: In some lighter news to share, a G4 geomagnetic storm is impacting Earth starting NOW. Almost as visible as the massive solar storm earlier in the year. From 10PM to 4AM in your local time zone, aurora and northern lights visible with a camera in the yellow, and visible, to possibly HIGHLY visible and vibrant in the red shaded areas!

Major kudos to the brave men and women of the Hurricane Hunters. They risk their lives flying into these high end hurricanes, for meteorological research, analysis, forecasting, and ultimately saving lives. I love the weather more than anything. But not sure I stomach this. You?

The pretty new HAFS hurricane model has done great so far with #Lee, maybe a tad even underdoing it. It still tries to make it one of the strongest hurricanes ever documented on this side of the world tomorrow. By Friday midday, it brings the sustained winds to a ludicrous 190-200MPH and gusts possibly over 210-215MPH in the inner eye-wall. This is in the face of some slightly dry air invading the SW side. Meteorologically this is the top of the chart for what the Atlantic Ocean basin can produce for an extreme intensity hurricane.

PERSPECTIVE: Been clamoring this on air, yes the Category will come down but let's focus more on IMPACT at this point. It is deceiving. Katrina and Wilma did this too a 5-4-3 and were very major impacts. It could hit as a 3 or a 4 no idea which. But, the wind field will expand significantly, impacting more people at landfall. This is the tropical force wind field. Right now, it's small. Think an ice skater with their hands close to their body spinning REALLY fast. As they let the hands extend out from their body, and slow down, that's the wind field analogy here with Milton. Hurricane force wind gusts will extend WELL further across the FL Peninsula as it impacts.

7:53PM: This supercell producing a major violent tornado has INSANE structure. KFOR chopper just captured this visual. Very violent tornado about to pass right over I-35 in the Norman area.

Dust to the left, dust to the right, there in the middle, Beryl, a benchmark storm.

8PM EDT: Concern for a "sting jet" to develop on the backside of Milton has increased. We have talked on the air and here all week about the backside winds. Well I feel much stronger now the wind will be major impact in the I-4 corridor. A sting jet is when a tropical low undergoes transition to a non-tropical low and collapses, the wind aloft crashes and rushes down behind it. Very much reminiscent of Europe and a Nor'easter. Peak gusts somewhere between 80-100 MPH along the I-4 corridor. These winds arrive after 11PM and run through 11AM Thursday, peaking though 2AM to 8AM. Substantial power outage and wind impact in the Orlando area.

JUST IN: As we talked about I had a bad feeling this was coming. Here we go folks. Tropical Depression #14 has formed and will become a strong hurricane MILTON. This could make a run at major hurricane status I think. This is a RARE track and hurricane. Why? Rare in the sense that in October, VERY few storms hit the west coast of FL traversing the ENTIRE Gulf west-east, and formed in the Bay of Campeche. Most formed in the Caribbean and hooked into FL. This has the potential to produce major to extreme surge given its long "fetch" over the Gulf. Wednesday is "the day" to repeat. Do not see that changing. Right now we have a high end Cat. 2 forecast from NHC to landfall around Sarasota, FL. Notice how large the cone is though. Remember, cone tells you where the CENTER may go, and not the extent of the impacts. Landfall is possible as far south as Ft. Myers and as far north as the Big Bend. Think the most likely path is somewhere paralleling I-4 corridor through central FL and with the eye going over/near Orlando, but we will see. Figuring out the TRACK specifically is the most difficult. But this will be a major impact event and preparations should start now.

LORD... this thing refuses to stop intensifying. I mean, meteorologically WOW. Hurricane Melissa now has 175 MPH sustained winds with wind gusts to 215 MPH. It probably will strengthen more overnight. There will be a path near the center of tornado like damage and near total destruction of everything in its path in the eyewall. Complete structure failure is possible with extreme roof damage along the path. Towns and communities in the western side of the island may be wiped out or left cutoff to outside access for extended time. The meteorological limit of max realistic intensity is nearing. There is a parameter for it, MPI (max potential intensity) - which is merely a meteorological formula to give a rough estimate of the strongest storm the Earth's atmosphere can produce at a given time. That number currently is around 184 MPH sustained winds. What is also remarkable, and not drama or a stretch of the truth... is the fact this hurricane has yet to start doing ERC (eyewall replacement cycles) -- this is very rare how long it is maintaining its initial eye without doing a replacement cycle yet. This will be a life changing storm for many on the island. Praying for their safety Tuesday in the storm. Many large landslides may occur too especially in the central and western side of the island. If you are reading this in central or western Jamaica, you are going to endure something you may never see again. Going outside during the storm, especially the eye, could be deadly. Shelter as if this is a 12 hour long tornado. Storm surge forecast is "up to 13 feet" for the south side of the island, but I don't think Kingston will see it that bad. Kingston while will still get impacted, will NOT get the extreme impacts the western side of the island will. Wind gusts will likely remain below 90 MPH in the Kingston area. Expecting landfall late Tuesday morning, Oct. 28. ‣ This will be the first Category 5 hurricane to ever landfall in Jamaica, since we have records for in 1850 ‣ Only 1 other Category 4 hit the island, Gilbert in 1988 ‣ This is now, as of this advisory the 9th strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean's recorded history, by pressure

There is no sugar coating or toning down needed. But also no "hype" from this either. Wednesday this week is the "real deal" for a regional severe weather outbreak in the mid-Ohio to mid-Mississippi Valley. At this point I don't see how at a minimum the day of won't end up in at least a Level 4 (out of 5) "moderate" risk from the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center. Significant severe weather is not just possible but probably likely at this point across parts of southern Illinois, southern Indiana, west/central Kentucky, the western half of Tennessee, far NE Arkansas, and southeast Missouri. Significant straight line winds, very-large to possibly giant hail, and a more localized risk for strong-long tracking tornadoes all appear on the table. Let's hope things temper down with the data but there's no use in not making you aware of the fact the setup overall has a high celling. It is only Sunday night, so a lot CAN change between now and then. But consider the take home message of this to be it's not too early to review your severe weather warning plans, what you'd do when a warning is issued for you, and do both of those things for your friends and family too. CWASP value below in blue of 85+ is strongly correlated historically with significant severe storms and/or significant tornadoes occuring. Timetable would be Wednesday afternoon through the evening and possibly into the overnight.

This is the recommended time 'to be in your place of shelter' Wednesday where you will ride out the hurricane. #Milton

BREAKING: And I mean WOW this is huge. The quake was prelim. an 8.0 but upgraded now to a massive 8.7 magnitude. This struck minutes ago off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. This was a pretty shallow quake with depth of 19km (only 11 miles down). Tsunami Alerts are now active for all of Hawaii and the Alaskan Islands. A quake of this extreme intensity and shallowness can pose major tsunami risks. Tsunami alerts are expanding immediately around the Pacific Rim. Tsunami waves over 3 meters (10 feet) above normal tide levels are now possible along portions of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands and coastal areas of Russia.

BREAKING: This is now a mass casualty event in western Kentucky. ‣ Deaths are possibly between 70-100 lives from this Mayfield tornado ‣ 181 national guardsmen are arriving in communities this morning ‣ Heavy equipment will be sent from state level

Yet another example of nature exhibiting mathematical obedience...

Some big weather news today, the historic severe storm that started in Texas and ended in central Florida Thursday evening into Friday midday has now been designated a "derecho" wind storm. Early damage estimates are several BILLION dollars just in Houston, Texas alone. It started in Texas and ended in Florida, but the majority of the damage was in Texas, Louisiana, and the Florida Panhandle. I also plotted the Severe Storm Warnings that occurred and each icon a severe wind report. These are what often happen in the Heartland and northern United States in the summer when they ride the periphery of a "heat dome" -- just like this one did.

2:40PM EDT: #Milton undergoing another window of intensification. Should become a Category 5 again this evening. We will see how much deepening it does before shear kicks in tomorrow. Could it challenge last night's intensity? Do not know. But it has the "loop" current of the hottest water in the Gulf ahead of it for the next 8-10 hours. This will be its last window of intensification. Notice the eye clearing out and lightning returning all around the eye.

JUST IN: Debby is now a Category 1 hurricane, in one of the most peculiar satellite presentations I have seen in a hot minute...

We need to keep close tabs with the track tomorrow for major Hurricane Helene. Some models, including the IBM, and the GFS modeling are consistently outside the "cone" and bring the eye of Helene closer to Cedar Key and the Lake City/Gainesville area. That would mean obviously significantly more wind gusts of hurricane force in the Ocala area, The Villages, and much stronger gusts closer to the Orlando area. For now, the consensus and most likely idea remains the eye going up near Tallahassee but let's "nowcast" this storm carefully tonight into Thursday and monitor for any eastward shifts. If the eye does go to Tallahassee, central FL still gets Tropical Storm force gusts as advertised, but the Tallahassee area would get slammed with destructive winds and major outages. Any and all subtle east shifts mean significant adjustments in the magnitude of wind/power outage/tornado risk in central-north-northeast FL.

Take yourself on a fly-over and through of rare Hurricane #Lee tonight... the eye appears to be slowly shrinking... eye-wall replacement cycle could be coming soon. Most of where you see black on this image indicates cloud top temperatures at or below -100°F! It never gets explained to people as much I feel it should. Have learned many of y'all don't know what the colors are. Remember a hurricane is exerting extreme latent heat release (the thunderstorms are exploding and throwing tremendous amounts of water into the air that cools at an extreme rate). These are called "IR" image (infrared) satellites. Do not show precip. or intensity of. Verbatim -- cloud top temps. and the intensity of the thunderstorm in that given spot. Hopefully that helped at least one of ya reading this!

Just leaves a pit in your stomach looking at this as a forecaster and meteorologist. The narrow corridor of wind around the eyewall is going to be beyond extreme wind and weather impact. Similar to western Pacific Ocean-based typhoons, it appears the mountains are "bouncing" or influencing Melissa as it nears, nudging it unexpectedly back NW before landfall. IF this continued, more highly populated Montego Bay could take the catastrophic eyewall once it crosses the island this afternoon.

Tornado Warnings, as they happened during #Milton. At one point there was nearly 15 active tornado warnings at the same time.

#Milton back to Category 5. Intense hurricane at the core. Does it go to astronomical level again back below 900 mb tonight? We'll see. Hurricane hunters will be in there tonight. Has about 6-10 more hours of interference free atmosphere for intensification.

HISTORIC SNOW: Just one that will be talked about for a lifetime for many. New all time state record snowfall in Milton, FL for the Sunshine State. Shattering record in New Orleans with over 9" of snow. These numbers as of 12AM Wednesday.

Our tropical FOX Model just updated, and is interesting for sure. Continues on the point that the Texas coastline to Louisiana should keep tabs closely with Hurricane Beryl. I think the most likely path at now would be more into far SE TX or NE Mexico, but there is clearly a wide range of outcomes. The FOX Model did good with Hurricane Ian's southward track from range. It did good so far with #Beryl and it's track from this weekend. The test is Wednesday, it takes the center basically over southern Jamaica, as opposed to keeping the center out over the water. Watch how it is on the "edge" of the cone this weekend in the Gulf, then "feels" that window of renewed favorable conditions for strengthening. Definitely do not think "tossing" this outcome is reasonable. Once it crosses Jamaica Wednesday I think (hope) maybe some more clarity will come in. Water temps are still extremely high in the Gulf remember too.

20 years away... the next great American SOLAR ECLIPSE... can you imagine what the hotel rates will be in Disney World and Universal for this!?

Super Typhoon Kong-Rey is easily one of the largest eye's in a major tropical system you will ever see on Earth. Thing is absolutely massive.

INCREDIBLE TWISTERS: Hurricane Beryl will be talked about for a long time by many for memorable tropical systems. Over 200 tornado warnings were issued from July 8th to 10th, the most since Hurricane Ivan in 2004! The strongest tornado so far occurred in the west KY/southern IN risk zone, with an EF3 rated tornado so far. All of all the days, that area probably under*performed the most. The final day in New York State was the MOST tornado warnings ever issued in a single day in the NWS history of NY. NWS Buffalo issued their most tornado warnings ever in a single day, at 18. NWS Shreveport issued 67 tornado warnings themselves, their most ever in a single day too. Again, a reminder the next time you watch a TV forecast or see online, yes, big hurricane and systems should be watched and followed well inland for this exact reason. Not every will be this widespread, but many are. Also, a reminder of the fact that tornadoes occur even WELL inland on the RIGHT side of the system. Simply put, that is where the shear and instability is highest. Texas to New Hampshire got in on the tornado warning action from Hurricane Beryl's remnants. The remnants now will become fully non-post tropical and the energy that does still remain will get catapulted across the Atlantic and help fuel rains and wind in the United Kingdom early next week!

Complete pattern flip for February. Much more La Nina like. Warm, possibly very warm in Florida and the southeast. Dry too. Severe storms/tornado chances from TX to TN and AR. Major cold and snow in the high plains and PNW.

Incredible doesn't cut it. This truly is something else of a hurricane. Hurricane models have largely done great so far. Updated HAFS model indicates #Beryl could definitely get into the upper echelon of Category 4 by Monday morning, if not knock on the door of rare Category 5. 155+ MPH gusts possible in the eyewall Monday especially near the island of Carriacou, part of Grenada. Catastrophic damage likely where the eyewall is. Will be a fast moving storm, but for a few hours will be just hell on earth Monday AM.

WOW, this has gotten very bad very quick. A rare Flash Flood Emergency was just issued for North Miami to Hollywood, FL. Between 6 and 9" of rain has fallen in the past 5-6 hours, and up to 8" additional of rain may fall in the next few hours. That would be at maximum up to 17" of rain in an extremely short time. Massive, life threatening flooding ongoing. @fox35orlando

This is actually bizarre and I am not just saying that. This will be one of the more notable severe storm nights in March in recent memory. In the past hour, over 16,000 individual lightning bolts from western New York to NE Texas -- spanning over 1,200+ miles!

One week away from likely another (and bigger) cold front into the United States. Very cold start to December ahead my friends...

WOW! Aurora is nearing a G5 magnetic storm over North America now. This is nearing a rare level of solar storm that makes the northern lights visible as far south as the Gulf Coast and Florida. These level of solar storms can also impact electrical grids, cell towers, and satellites.

We got this shot from a lake house on Lake Barkley… we just down from Boyd’s Landing. The tornado was tracking across the lakes at this time. Absolutely remarkable shot.

Man, that light is DANCING up in the night sky. Auroras typically form between 55 and 80 miles above Earth's surface but can extend up to 370 miles into space. Very strong auroras can cause low-frequency hisses, crackles, or clapping noises— heard close to the ground during intense displays, even though the light originates over 60 miles up. 📷: Jesse Henning (Colorado)

Seldom do you have a hurricane and blizzard warnings within view of each other on the same weather map...

Want to make something else clear -- #Lee will reach extreme intensity tomorrow. But, it will *not* be at that intensity forever. Should go back and forth between Cat. 4 and 5 this weekend. Then once it turns north it will gradually weaken, but still be a strong hurricane. These things take a while to "spin down" and disperse all that energy into the atmosphere. Today's new ECMWF ensemble indicates New England and Nova Scotia definitely need to keep close tabs on #Lee next week. Several members are too close for comfort to New England. Some a landfall in Nova Scotia, others a huge hooking re-curve safely into the open waters of the Atlantic. Something else we can say now probably is Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina do *not* appear to have much to worry about, a direct hit there is not expected. But very large swells and rip currents will occur on all Atlantic-facing beaches for several days next week.

NEW overnight: The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe outlook now has a rare, Level 5 out of 5 risk of severe weather in the Deep South later today. This is the first HIGH risk issued from SPC since May 20th, 2019. The last HIGH risk in the month of March was in 2012.

I do not share these words without significant thought beforehand. I do NOT like how tonight is trending. Data is converging on there being some lone, large supercells blossoming rapidly ahead of the 'main line' of storms. These are extremely concerning to me. The parameters at play are stronger than what occurred on 12/10/2021 should any supercells actually form. That chance is rising. I circled the area of greatest supercell concern which is west TN, KY, and far SW Illinois. Between 5:30P CDT and 8:30P CDT is the greatest supercell concern. I can not lie this has me a but worried. Let's hope and pray they don't form but trends are not good. Any supercell in this environment will move RAPIDLY to the NE and have the ability to produce: strong to violent (EF3+) tornadoes, baseball size hail, and good be on the ground for long periods of time. Specifically that includes the KY Lakes area, Evansville, NW TN, Graves and Marshall County areas. After that timeframe, if any supercells did form, they will get cannibalized and overtaken by a monster QLCS (line of storms) approaching from the west. That crosses the Mississippi River around 9PM. That line then which will extend from NW Ohio, through Indiana, SE Illinois, west KY, west TN, east Arkansas, and NW Mississippi could produce tornadoes, excessive straight line wind damage, and very large hail. This is an uncommon example to the rule I have told y'all many times before that "lines of storms generally dont produce big tornadoes." This line tonight can and probably will -- regardless of what the uncertain # of supercells did ahead of them. *Post made: 3:40PM EDT / 2:40PM CDT Wednesday*

EXTREME and some have called generational flood in the mountains of North and South Carolina. Georgia got hit bad too from flooding today. 40"+ of rain fell in spots (second image) with this highly unusual Fujiwara-induced track NW of a hurricane remnant. That unusual track maximized upslope flow on the mountains to produce extreme rains. This was all predicted unfortunately very well days in advance and I hate that it came to fruition. Even the rain in Nashville, while much less, 4"+ Friday alone is more than the entire September monthly average for middle TN. Major impact to Florida yes, but one could argue this storm will be remembered as much or more for the inland flooding.

Crazy day for tornadoes in central and south Florida. Nearly as many tornado warnings as occurred in Alabama during the super outbreak of 2011 on April 27th. Sadly, turned deadly.

Stop me if you have heard this before in 2024. Hurricane #Rafael is quickly re-strengthening tonight over very warm water and low wind shear. Look at the convective burst on the west side of the center. Will become a Cat. 3 or 4 hurricane in the southern Gulf next few days.

in Lake Mary, Florida. About 4 mins from our TV station on Blue Iris Place. Two homes nearly leveled, about 6 with major damage. Path appears at least 1/2 a mile. @fox35orlando

To say the tornado ingredients are off the charts for Saturday evening in Oklahoma and southern Kansas is an understatement... top-end tornadoes are possible with hail sizes maxed out!

Rough timeline of potential path of #Milton next week.

Crazy Stronger than Ian Faster than Charley Nearly 2.5x the size of Ian

One thing to remember that came from Melissa is the highest wind gust, potentially, ever observed within a tropical system - which came from the Hurricane Hunters in Melissa Tuesday morning. Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines holds that record at 247 MPH currently. Will be verified for Melissa if becomes official or not at a later date.

WOW -- The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports a storm Tuesday north of Mackay may have produced the largest hail ever in Australia. It was estimated at 16 cm (6.3 inches) in diameter... which would mean it fell at a terminal velocity of well over 100 km/hr (62.13 MPH)!

NOW: Significant to extreme delays at Orlando International Airport with average delays around 3 hours. FAA has issued a 'ground delay program' and expecting a period of time tonight (Thursday, 10/30) when *no arrivals* will be allowed to land as there will be no certified ATC available at MCO.

It’s becoming clearer by the hour that given ample fuel from elevated sea surface temps. and lighter mid-upper level wind shear, that #Idalia could strengthen all the way up to landfall. As others have discussed, once the center gets into the Gulf tomorrow, how quickly it gathers will dictate how up the intensity chart this thing can get. But the point is there appears to be at least some % chance (see HWRF below) that this thing is high end Cat. 3 or even low end 4 by landfall. But remember, if you’re reading this in the impacted zones in the forecast, focus more on impact and less specific categories. Will be a major hurricane regardless. But it could really get gnarly if things line up just right. Tuesday night appears to be the time that if this thing is going to “reeeeeally takes off” that it will.

Sweet shot of this morning's shelf cloud rolling into western Kentucky! 📷: John Goodwin | Trigg County, KY

FLORIDA AURORA! Crazy strong geomagnetic storm to see it this far south. 1: St. Cloud (Alexandra Opal) 2: Jacksonville Beach (Linda Johnson) 3: Orlando (Monica Fabregat)

SARA SCENARIOS: Door #1 could likely become a high-end hurricane when in the Caribbean if avoids land interaction. Meanders some this weekend then lifts towards the FL Peninsula mid-next week. Could be be central or north-central FL? I guess, but that would be unprecedented. I'd lean more south FL/Keys in this scenario but both would be possible where the center could go. Very much to some degree a Wilma-y 2005 vibe if panned out possibly. Highlighted area in each scenario indicates where the center could go in that outcome. Door #2 very much a weaker, further west track with the storm going into/over/through land in Central America and/or Mexico. Keeps it sloppier/weaker but still may manage to emerge in the Gulf, then get hooked into the FL Peninsula at some point also mid-next week. Want to stress there is a long way to go, but the chance of a direct tropical impact somewhere in Florida is growing slowly for next week. Details are still far too uncertain. Stressing to continue to watch without worry... but be aware of this potential. Also if you have a cruise/vaca to Mexico/FL Keys/Bahamas next week, you definitely need to keep close tabs with how this evolves. Both scenarios tonight are equally as possible. There are many models within both camps.

6:15PM CDT: Wow! What a LIVE shot. This from FOX Chicago. ORD airport radar is detecting strengthening rotation just ~2.5 miles south of O'Hare International Airport!

The center/eye of hurricane #Milton may come right over the Orlando area early Thursday morning. Think our model is on the right track with winds being strongest on the 'back side' in the NW flow. Winds peak everywhere in central FL with 70-100 MPH gusts seems like a good bet at this point. Hurricane force still into midday Thursday on the coast. Updates on @fox35orlando throughout this storm.

Remarkable. Rarely in this part of the world do you see such an intense hurricane so slowly moving and not weaken. The storm has done a loop/stall tonight. The NE turn is about to start. The Air Force is in there now and it's starting to strengthen again. May dip below 900mb overnight. White line is the observed path so far.

This darn storm man... back for more intensification now over the waters between Jamaica and Cuba. The eye has rapidly reformed this evening, with significant lightning in the western side -- that is indicative of fast intensifying hurricanes. Santiago de Cuba is Cuba's 2nd most populated city and could take hurricane conditions overnight. Only three major hurricanes have ever tracked across eastern Cuba in history: Matthew (2016), Ike (2008), Dennis (2005) Melissa will become the fourth overnight into Wednesday morning. Should be a pretty solid storm surge into Guantanamo Bay even away from the eye.

Extreme central Florida Flooding from Sunday night in the Mount Dora and Eustis area. 📷: Danielle Mallard

It's so early in the game but one thing is clear other than that #Lee becomes an intense hurricane... that everyone from the Carolina coast to New England (and Bermuda) needs to follow the forecast closely. Anyone calling it a total 'fish storm' now is incorrect. Way too soon to eliminate any landmass from an impact in 10-16 days from now. One thing that gives me a pause is that strong Atlantic ridge of high pressure in the box. Anytime I see something like that raises my eyebrows for New England. Models though are all over the place with that ridge strength and position. One other thing can be said, if that ridge strengthens and remains a bit more west, this could really turn into something... for now we just continue to watch. By this weekend should start being able to get a better handle on it.

JUST IN: Helene now an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane. I think it is going to try and make a run at Category 5 which is 157+ MPH sustained winds. Whether it does or not, this storm will intensify all the way to landfall. Look how large the eye has gotten.

Melissa continues to chug along. Trying to re-strengthen now for the *third* time in its life after two landfalls. Firing lots of lightning and convection in the Bahamas this evening, will become a Category 2 again tonight. Thanks to a cold front, moving away from Florida.

Global computer models today generally took future tropical system #Sara towards the Yucatán Peninsula this weekend then try and hook it NE towards the Florida Peninsula next week. We will update daily how these trend. Remember, no spaghetti models yet until the NHC declares the tropical wave officially. @fox35orlando

This will be in a textbook someday. Supercell had a major tornado, deviant motion then hooked hard to the north, then split into two, may have briefly produced 2 concurrent tornadoes, now the southern circulation is becoming dominant as the northern, original tornado occludes.

Apparently outside of Jacksonville, FL it was -23°F for a high temperature Monday. The end is near LOL

Satellite loop of Melissa over the past 24 hours. White line is the center track. Crazy how it has moved around. Notice towards the end the eye is now back over water and is starting to rapidly strengthen once again.

Wild radar loop tonight in North Dakota. Hurricane like feature embedded within this developing derecho. Instead of getting its energy from the ocean surface in a tropical system, draws the energy from instability high aloft in the atmosphere. Note the tight swirl at the top!

Simply put there appears to be two clear scenarios later next week for our hypothetical tropical system forming between and Cuba. A stronger, farther south cold front over the central-eastern U.S. probably pushes said system into Florida, possibly a tad faster with less time to intensify over water. Other scenario is a much weaker cold front and farther north over the Northeast, and/or a stronger high over the Bahamas. Then, the system would likely push west of FL and into MS/AL/LA/TX. And possibly be much stronger due to a slower pass over extremely warm Gulf water. Models will do this. Models will do that. They will bounce around. After all, they are models. And we are meteorologists, not model-ologists. So let's not get too worked up about any one computer model run. A strike to FL is equally as possible as anywhere else on the Gulf Coast from a tropical system late next week. For now, storm or no storm in your town, best served reviewing your hurricane plan and supplies level. And then we sit back and wait. @fox35orlando

This thing is turning into a beast of a hurricane. Incredibly fast eyewall replacement cycle it just underwent. Dangerous to the Mexican coast Thursday.

TSUNAMI ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIMES U.S. WEST COAST

7:30PM: WOW! @wdsu LIVE coverage shows an active wedge tornado tracking just east of downtown New Orleans, LA right now. Tornado over the Lower 9th Ward.

We are now in range of the hurricane models' opening bid for #Lee and its possible New England impacts. Interesting to note 1st that both HAFS models are showing the storm not getting swept by with the trough... and slows down (uncommon for Northeast tropical systems) and even retrogrades and hooks slightly NW back towards the coast on Saturday. This would be much more impact than what the GFS and Euro are advertising.

Quite the satellite loop the past 24 hours. Tornadoes from Pittsburgh to Michigan to Alabama to Kentucky to Illinois to Missouri to Oklahoma to Georgia. Just endless convection in the atmosphere in the eastern U.S.

TROPICAL SCENARIOS: Listen, the model and pattern data is very convincing -- meaning that there is a high confidence this system is not a "fantasy" in the data and is credible. In short there appears to be two camps of outcomes. Scenario 1: Potential #Sara gets forced northward into the Gulf early next week, then likely would be again forced but this time to turn NE at/near/around the FL Peninsula as another cold front approaches from the Midwest. Scenario 2: A small window "opens" of which where the system can get pushed NE across the central Caribbean then out into the Atlantic. If you have family/interests in/a cruise or vaca planned to Cancun, Cozumel, or anywhere in the Caribbean next week, you'll extra especially want to follow this closely. This has been as expected, a very impactful and busy hurricane season, and may have one final act of a credible threat. Question is ultimately to whom and at what intensity next week. The level of land interaction with Central America also has a big role in how strong it can get. If the center stays offshore, could become a strong hurricane quickly. If it is close to/on shore this weekend, could keep intensity down longer. We'll see. @fox35orlando