How does this affect the chance of making the major? (This was calculated before the current M8 vs Inner Circle match, this is more an evaluation of the decision)
M8:
This does slightly hurt their chances, but by an incredibly small 1 or 2%. Due to their anchor, their gain rate is weakened. Losses are incredibly limiting and having a guaranteed loss in the Quarters is quite the limitation (this was an assumed exit point).
Swapping to EPL also means that good performance will mean no cash earnt, which (while small) is of some benefit whilst having a full LAN bucket where decayed wins are being replaced.
This is a change which mostly affects who theyre fighting the final major spots for, with now a direct matchup against HEROIC. That opening match is crucial for both teams. Theyll also get the benefits of potential bigger H2H wins at EPL, but this is somewhat offset by the baked in loss.
Overall for M8 this is a fine change, it has little overall major impact. This also has significant benefit for the future with the chance of making the EPL.
Fnatic:
Fnatic will have declined the invite for it to drop to M8. Fnatic are in a similarly difficult situation, but with a bigger Anchor penalty affecting their seed modifier gains.
This bigger anchor makes the potential larger H2H gains rather appealing, as well as key matches against major competition helping close the gap.
Again its a small change, but Fnatic wouldve seen a slight net benefit from attending EPL (assuming that FRAG groups arent covered and they couldve gone out 3rd in their group). This benefit is due to their higher penalty making the EPL teamlsit a better source of points as well as that key swing against HEROIC.
This is mostly just the risk / reward of swapping to EPL and having to spend a loss to do so.
Unfortunately
@Lynnvision_ are unable to field a complete roster at
#ESLProLeague Season 22. Due to their ineligibility and a short replacement window, Lynn Vision will be replaced by
@gentlemates who were the next eligible team to accept the invite per our rules stating:
3.2.6 Last minute replacements
Any withdrawal occurring less than two weeks prior to the event's start date will result in the invitation being granted to the highest-ranked team on the Valve Regional Standings from the host region of the event. Only teams with valid visas for the region or country where the tournament is being held will be considered.