Senior fellow for natsec @AEI Co-Chair Future of @USNavy Commission Frmr @US_AWC Board of Visitors & @USArmy Science Board @MasonNatSec & @hamiltonsoc
Washington, DC
- Tweets 4,229
- Following 1,537
- Followers 13,405
- Likes 5,626
A pleasure to highlight China’s actual military spending and its outsized investments in combat power—dwarfing those of its Indo-Pacific neighbors.
Had a great conversation with @MEaglen at @AEI yesterday afternoon.
We covered China’s military spending and how the U.S. can counter the rising threat that China poses.
115
372
1,111
335,171
Beijing's military budget $$$ is *much* larger than the Chinese Communist Party reports publicly.
ALT https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/setting-the-record-straight-on-beijings-actual-military-spending/
Total global military expenditure increased by 3.7% in real terms in 2022, to reach a new high of $2240 billion. SIPRI’s data on military expenditure quoted in this external @VisualCap article ➡️bit.ly/3Q1FqQp
97
358
1,037
657,919
China not only spends about what the United States does per annum on its military, Beijing outspends America’s allies in Asia on defense by 5:1 — increasingly tipping the scales away from freedom & stability.
383
312
892
153,744
Did you know the Predator drone was initially an "earmark" in Congress--forced on the Pentagon?
Tomahawk missile, a "weapon of choice" for military commanders, wouldn't be in production today if not for Congress.
Same with small sats, commercial data analytics, or the SLCM-N.
17
56
319
58,366
Top Pentagon intelligence official testified yesterday that China currently has 16 mega "Manhattan-style" projects underway. (The U.S. = 0)
Global share of R&D spending from 2000 - 2015:
United States dropped 11%
China increased 21%
23
203
253
America’s spy agencies said China’s military budget is actually ~$700B, far higher than Beijing claims.
Factor in lower labor costs, mil-civ “fusion,” PPP, much hard power classified as non-military, & no need to fight an away game, it’s even higher ↗️
19fortyfive.com/2023/06/chin…
35
92
263
42,634
Chinese shipyards have the capacity to build surface ships & submarines 232 times greater than America (in terms of gross tonnage). Source: US Navy
Ron O’Rourke’s Latest @CRS4Congress Report—“#China #Naval Modernization: Implications for @USNavy Capabilities”
bit.ly/_CRS23
USG/N Info on PLAN Ships & Projections of #s Lead thru 2040!
Many citations to @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime pubs, including from our latest conference.
24
86
207
135,404
US Navy shipbuilding is entering its version of the "doom loop" with a budget for today that shrinks the fleet further *and* cuts new ship investments for tomorrow--ensuring there are no plans for recovery to grow the fleet again anytime soon ⚠️
aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…
21
91
209
76,023
It's time for a gut check on Washington's growing preference to instinctively reach for the U.S. military as the preferred tool to address problems outside its core missions.
9
46
152
It is simply unsustainable to remain a global power with global reach at this pace of operations with an ever-shrinking Navy.
aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…
11
39
182
Horrible change of precedent for executive authority and the interpretation of “emergency.” 🚨The pilfering of funds from other legislatively-approved priorities is simply an end run around Congress and checks and balances. 🚨 And It will ultimately degrade military readiness 🚨
FYI: AEI analysts @MEaglen and @bergerrichard weighed in earlier this week in the WSJ...and said DON'T:
13
51
145
Operation “Midnight Hammer” showcased a sad fact:
America’s B-2 bomber fleet is large enough for a raid. Not a battle, and certainly not a war.
19fortyfive.com/2025/06/why-…
15
32
196
29,752
Violence & killing in the name of the state should be left to those sworn to defend it and the Constitution. usatoday.com/story/news/worl…
13
61
131
Worried about still-small-but-growing ethical rot atop the US military flag/general officer ranks. This is not limited to sex abuse/assault, but more a growing culture of entitlement, accoutrements, abuse of power, lack of accountability, toxic leadership & disdain for oversight
14
34
134
- $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill
- $2.25 trillion infrastructure bill
- 16% increase in non-defense discretionary spending in ‘22
- Defense budget that doesn’t keep place with inflation
= The only federal entity on a fiscal diet is the U.S. military.
13
58
147
2020 White House defense budget calls for a
- 3.1% military pay raise
- 0.0% for 750,000 Pentagon civilians
on the heels of 2 gov't shutdowns in 2 years.
6
44
78
Congress is worried about the @USNavy and the state of military shipbuilding in particular.
I'm pleased to be the @SpeakerJohnson & @LeaderMcConnell GOP Co-Chair of the congressional Commission on the Future of the U.S. Navy.
Time to get to work ⚓️
congress.gov/118/crec/2024/1…
9
19
103
12,251
Troops are not partisan football, Speaker says. And yet...since the drafting of the Budget Control Act 8 years ago, the US military has been THE #1 hostage of both political parties seeking broader budget priorities / "wins."
3
26
81
"44% of U.S. Air Force aircraft are flying beyond their initial design service life."
- General Nahom, Dep. Chief For Plans & Programs
10
38
91
Thinking about @DOGE for @DeptofDefense and suggest greater emphasis on all the waste created by Congress when they fail to fund government operations on time--including now.
Spending freezes called continuing resolutions (CRs) waste $300 million taxpayer dollars per day🧵(1/8)
1
32
91
16,940
America's military magazine depth is a concern...
nationalinterest.org/blog/bu…
U.S. warships launched a dozen SM-3 interceptors to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles this week—that’s a year’s worth of production.
Biden’s FY25 defense budget calls for $400 million cut to missile defense.
Below from @MEaglen
3
41
84
19,755
General Milley tells the Senate that the Pentagon & intel community analysis shows that combined Russian and Chinese defense spending indeed exceeds the U.S. military's budget.
7
33
79
There is a clear consensus America needs more attack submarines.
"If we do nothing else," the Navy should build more attack subs, Secretary of Defense says at CSBA.
6
10
72
As Pres. Trump rails against NATO allies for their inadequate budgets, he should know the United States defense spending as a % of GDP has only been falling for the past decade.
Defense budget (050)
2011 4.6%
2012 4.2%
2013 3.6%
2014 3.5%
2015 3.3%
2016 3.3%
2017 3.3%
18
70
63
Washington is lulled into complacency that breeds crumbling military deterrents by outdated/incorrect stats (eg, “we spend more than the next X countries on defense”)
There is no confusion in Beijing, Tehran or Moscow about our lack of magazine depth or fragile industrial base
@MEaglen, senior fellow at @AEI and author of Keeping Up with the Pacing Threat: Unveiling the True Size of Beijing’s Military Spending, joins the show to discuss the dire situation the U.S. defense budget is in. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
1
25
73
11,011
America's dominance in space is, in part, due to Capitol Hill demanding an alternate space launch provider of the Defense Department--against its wishes.
Congress gets a lot right when pushing the military to change course or invest in key capabilities.
aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…
1
6
73
4,725
The isolation of troops from civilians has indirectly but no less insidiously harmed interest in & support for the US military.
Instead of being intimidating armed forts, bases should be launchpads for outreach to civilians who live nearby —>
militarytimes.com/opinion/20…
7
14
58
19,501
The result of the post-Cold War “peace dividend” was a “procurement holiday” from which the US military never fully recovered.
aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…
5
10
64
America provides global insurance by keeping open worldwide shipping sea lanes, air space, & satellite/GPS assets for 1 reason. Unencumbered commerce is a vital national interest in order that our citizens & economy thrive. The peace that allows for prosperity doesn’t keep itself
1
10
61
Combatant Commands: “sprawling mini-Pentagons” that are the “modern-day equivalent of the Roman Empire’s proconsuls”?
warontherocks.com/2020/11/pu…
3
22
60
IndoPacom’s intel officer says he’s warning about “danger on all fronts”—not just Taiwan.
He summed up U.S.’ position as “too late.”
Pentagon is too late
-in comprehending deadly purpose of China
-in preparedness
-in uniting all forces for resistance
washingtontimes.com/news/202…
7
35
65
China reportedly has over *200 ships* at sea in WestPac, including navy, coast guard, maritime militia & more -- in a considerable show of force
news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/9…
2
27
61
19,503
The Navy has “an inventory issue” with munitions stockpiles,
… along with the Army,
… & the Air Force.
insidedefense.com/daily-news…
6
16
61
32,028
The Navy & Marine Corps announced new D.C. dress codes
Gone are flight suits and utilities ❌
Here are professional service uniforms ✅
All military leaders should get outta BDUs and back into service uniforms.
8
10
54
News that expected nominee for US Ambassador to South Korea Victor Cha will now no longer move forward has a lot of people nervous. Here's why (thread)
9
62
54
A favorite new throwaway line in Washington is to "cut legacy weapons systems" to invest in the future.
But none ever define what a "legacy system" actually is.
A short thread 1/
4
9
57
America’s Air Force cannot prepare for high-end fight against Russia or China *and* maintain current level of commitment in Middle East against violent extremism. Need Combatant Commander to agree and reduce requirements, Sec. Wilson states bluntly at #RNDF
5
17
47
Does not help when senior leaders perpetuate the theme they are above it all, including questioning from the media and/or the civilians they serve.
Ex.) John Kelly espousing the theme that "military is an elite class separated from the American people by its infallible values."
3
9
42
Maybe we need a plan beyond airstrikes & kill-every-bad-guy-forever to solve the terrorism problem?
washingtonpost.com/world/afr…
4
8
46
It's time to talk about capacity as important to defense posture, deterrence, and readiness.
More capability, Pentagon leaders' oft-favored solution to declining budgets, is not a panacea.
1/5
3
16
48
The direct implication here is anyone NOT serving in uniform - teachers, cops, firefighters, EMTs, nurses, religious ldr - is, by default, a freeloader "sitting on the sidelines" of life or less than worthy of respect by those who've joined.
4
3
40
GEN Milley on June 17, 2021:
“I think China has a ways to go to develop the actual, no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize...Taiwan"
GEN Milley on Nov 3, 2021:
China is "clearly & unambiguously" developing the ability to invade Taiwan in the near future.
8
16
52
SecDef Mattis says it’s hubris to think US Navy sea control since 1944 and US Air Force air superiority since 1945 are birthrights and that victory on the battlefield is assured. #RNDF2018
3
14
42
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to Congress:
"China has a ways to go to develop the actual no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize through military means the entire island of Taiwan."
reuters.com/world/asia-pacif…
14
20
48
US Air Force will buy 12 ARRW (Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon) hypersonic weapons in PB22.
This is important because it is a too-rare example of programs moving *out of R&D* and into procurement & production.
4
19
46
“There isn’t a single person happy with the Biden Navy budget: it is dismal, it is anemic.”
NEW: Democrats and Republicans will spar over the size of President Joe Biden’s proposed $715 billion Pentagon budget, even as there’s one thing both parties can agree on: his fiscal 2022 request is unsatisfactory. Features @MEaglen @ToddHarrisonDC
about.bgov.com/news/fights-o…
4
9
45
Confirmation hearing for Dr. Kath Hicks underway. Former Sec. of Defense Robert Gates lauds her "mastery of black arts" deep inside the Pentagon, and her ability to strategically oversee massive defense budget cuts.
3
7
46
Happy to welcome defense budget expert, former US Air Force reservist, fellow coauthor & friend, and go-to analyst @ToddHarrisonDC to the @AEI and @AEIfdp team 📊🎉
3
3
48
20,463
The National Defense Strategy calls for ruthless prioritization of great power competition, but for those working at the Pentagon, their days do not match the strategy. With quotes/analysis from @DWBarno76 and @brooks_rosa and @KatieZimmerman from @AEI. warontherocks.com/2019/10/ju…
2
24
43
The CCP’s rapidly expanding defense budget, military buildup, and the increasing use of force to achieve certain aims all go hand-in-hand.
America’ most capable adversary in generations is spending gobs of money, spending widely, and spending well to quickly surpass us.
19fortyfive.com/2025/06/chin…
U.S. Air Force leadership just testified to Congress about their budget request for next year.
Their assessment of China's military airpower, space, cyber & nuclear modernization is stunning ... and alarming.
Here are the most shocking highlights🧵
2
21
47
11,760
General Milley, meet the U.S. Constitution.
Constitution, Artl.S9.C7.1, meet General Milley.
“My position on SLCM-N has not changed. But it's also a moot point. I'm here to defend the president's budget. The president's already made a decision," Milley said.
1
13
41
She committed no crime except trying to keep others from committing one. GAO said she was right. Awful news for an outstanding professional and patriot who just so happens to be the CFO of one of the world’s largest organizations nypost.com/2020/02/11/white-…
2
19
38
It's worse than you think.
Mother Russia is building combat vehicles & munitions at “an unprecedented pace" according to U.S. commander in Europe.
A reinvigorated Russian defense industrial base is rolling out
-1,500 tanks,
-3,000 armored vehicles, &
-200 Iskander ballistic & cruise missiles this year.
By comparison, the U.S. builds just
-135 tanks/yr and
-0 / no longer produces Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
China now boasts the world’s largest
-navy,
-army,
-air force, and
-strategic rocket force.
China’s robust maritime industry is primed to build and repair ships at a wartime tempo. In a drawn-out conflict, China would have the clear advantage in building, repairing, & maintaining warships at sea.
19fortyfive.com/2025/04/russ…
One shipyard in China made more commercial ships in 2024 than the total number the US has produced since World War II.
The destruction of America’s industrial base is a massive national security threat.
1
21
45
10,750
Of the 59 Presidentially-appointed Senate-confirmed positions in the Department of Defense, just 4 are filled by women. Zero minorities.
4
20
33
Beijing *again* raises its defense budget by <7% y/y
Before any hot takes that this is still just "a fraction" of what America spends on its military, consider not taking the CCP's self-proclaimed figures at face value 🇨🇳
apnews.com/article/china-leg…
Beijing's military budget $$$ is *much* larger than the Chinese Communist Party reports publicly.
ALT https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/setting-the-record-straight-on-beijings-actual-military-spending/
2
11
38
10,834
I'm a Meals on Wheels driver. The seniors get more nutritious food as a result of program. For some this is their only human contact all day
3
11
34
“I don’t use the term ‘carrier-killer’ missiles. Trust me, they are targeting everything."
- IndoPaCom Chief Adm. Davidson at Halifax Security Forum 2020 after the PLA tested anti-ship ballistic missiles [DF-21D & DF-26B] against moving targets at-sea.
washingtonpost.com/world/the…
1
15
33
RAND wargames:
"Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes, U.S. air bases across the Pacific come under attack, and American warships and aircraft are held at bay by the long reach of China's vast missile arsenal."
nbcnews.com/politics/nationa…
2
12
39
Hint: They are.
Munitions industrial base is critical, GEN Milley says. He notes the "incredible consumption of conventional munitions" in UKR limited regional war
Pentagon is now reviewing OPLANs to determine if munitions expenditure rate assumptions in major war (read: China) are too low 🚨
1
5
37
10,179
Let's talk about the elephant in the room-->
Marines are basically out of the crisis response business—too small & lacking amphibs to respond to allied earthquake victims, train outside of bases in Asia, and help evacuate America’s embassy in Sudan.
aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…
7
12
39
19,998
Ahh @ratemyskyperoom why oh why didn’t you appreciate my F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jet over the right shoulder?!
1
1
35
More from RAND: "When you look at the numbers and ranges of systems that China deploys, it's pretty easy to deduce what their main target is because pretty much everything they build can hit Taiwan. And a lot of stuff they build really can only hit Taiwan."
2
9
36
SecDef today to Congress:
I want to increase shipbuilding. You want to increase shipbuilding.
The Navy needs "adequate, sustained, predictable, and timely budgets."
Congress:
We're gonna start the year without enacted appropriations, with a spending freeze, & no #FY21NDAA.
2
6
35
New Secretary of Defense Mark Esper holds press briefing, signals new post-Mattis era of more openness with media and more accountability within the Pentagon bureaucracy.
3
8
29
Sec. of Defense Austin is "disappointed" but not surprised the Russians aren't returning his phone call.
4
7
35
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Congress today: The 2023 defense budget request includes the “largest R&D request this Department has ever made.”
With inflation, even "historic" RDT&E levels don't hold as a % of defense budget.
3
12
33
20 senior US military leaders.
1 woman.
Sigh
Last night, it was my great honor to host America’s senior defense and military leaders for dinner at the White House. America’s military is the GREATEST fighting force in the history of the world. They all have my pledge of unwavering commitment to our men and women in uniform!
7
12
29
Military posture hearings in a nutshell:
Joint Chiefs: we gotta buy the future, now!
Congress: capacity, capacity, capacity. To meet combatant commander requirements.
🚫No divestment without a replacement on hand.
6
33
"We're losing in Afghanistan & shooting down planes in Syria. Give us a strategy before markup, or we'll write it for you" Sen. McCain says.
2
23
28
2017: Pentagon R&D $75B
2018: Pentagon R&D $92B
2019: Pentagon R&D $96B
2020: Pentagon R&D $105B
2021: Pentagon R&D $107B
2022: Pentagon R&D (proposed) $112B
It is past time to move programs out of Research & Development and into Procurement.
4
7
32
Piling non-essential responsibilities & tasks onto the military allows policymakers to leave unaddressed the root failures or causes of concern elsewhere in government.
7
19
Takeaways from Pentagon's latest China military power report, thanks to @AndrewSErickson
By the *end of 2019*, China had achieved:
- the world’s largest standing ground force
- the world’s leading maritime militia
3
19
31
the Pentagon needs to start closing entire offices, agencies and organizations -- shifting any necessary statutory requirements to other shops when possible
Workload must decline alongside headcount
The Pentagon's Under Secretariat of Defense for Personnel and Readiness oversees activities "that collectively consume some two-thirds of the defense budget."
@MEaglen: Don’t overlook the importance of reducing workload alongside reducing headcount.
aei.org/articles/less-paperw…
1
6
35
6,061
🚨 This is new 🚨
The military is moving toward a more maritime overall defense strategy, Mattis says, and he is therefore supportive of Congress increasing the shipbuilding budget above requested levels.
1
23
31
Beyond defense as % of GDP or how much NATO allies spend on equipment modernization, the West is not investing enough in munitions.
In 2014, @NATO members agreed to stockpile enough ammo to be able to conduct a 30-day high-intensity war.
This goal has yet to be met. 10 yrs on
12
13
31
4,232
Across the federal government, “instead of planning for the worst case, they hoped for the best case, which is exactly the wrong approach to take.”
As DOD struggles to confront a global pandemic that has sidelined an aircraft carrier in the Pacific, Mark Esper is increasingly under fire.
"There is an increasing tone in the building of not a lot of faith and confidence in Esper." My latest politico.com/news/2020/04/02…
4
5
26
The People's Liberation Army Navy fleet is the largest on earth and bigger than the U.S. Navy -- a gap widening every single year.
The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence confirms that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times greater than the United States.
"Across the Pacific, estimates place China’s shipbuilding capacity at more than 200 times that of the United States."
Passing the SHIPS Act is critical to our national security.
nytimes.com/2025/05/01/opini…
14
24
66
30,940
Where I compare conventional military deterrence to parenting a toddler. They (bad guy or small child) are gonna act differently if I’m physically there (on the ground/steaming the high seas/flying overhead or in the kitchen) versus not.
🎧 Each week on The President's Inbox, two experts are sharing their different opinions on how the U.S. should handle a foreign policy challenge.
This episode with @WilliamHartung and @MEaglen tackles defense spending:
on.cfr.org/2QVcR8f
1
1
29
SecDef Esper laying landmines all over the place with Battleforce 2045:
🔥"diversified shipbuilding industrial base"
🚨"retire older ships and systems"
🚨🔥"8 to 11" nuclear aircraft carriers
🔥🚨🔥more shipbuilding money from Combatant Commands, 4th Estate & other services
1
12
30
The U.S. military’s 2024 budget is $90 billion short of what’s needed to just break even & keep pace with inflation
realcleardefense.com/article…
1
9
27
6,579
With quotes & insights from @ahfdc @RisaBrooks12 @KoriSchake @kath_hicks @jimgolby and more
warontherocks.com/2020/06/is…
1
12
26
I shall never accuse the US Army of being inflexible or unready to change on the fly after my meeting with a ⭐️⭐️⭐️-star today in the Pentagon’s Mall parking lot following a hiccup with building access
1
29
U.S. Air Force leadership just testified to Congress about their budget request for next year.
Their assessment of China's military airpower, space, cyber & nuclear modernization is stunning ... and alarming.
Here are the most shocking highlights🧵
2
17
33
16,001
Thanks for letting this newbie in for an enlightening convo @djrothkopf @brooks_rosa @KoriSchake on this week's #DeepStateRadio podcast. nitter.app/djrothkopf/status/9203…
1
6
26
Not tweeting #debate. Not because the race is over (it is), but a candidate for Leader of the Free World described textbook sexual assault.
6
8
29
Prediction: 🔮Congress will fully fund Aegis Ashore on Guam in this year's 2022 defense authorization and appropriations bills.
3
30
"Service Chiefs v. Combatant Commanders" is pretty one-sided for now. But the Chiefs are taking the long view, & Congress is finally paying attention.
realcleardefense.com/article…
4
7
25