šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Screenwriter, Member Writers Guild of America West, M.F.A. USC Cinema, Juris Doctor, Tech Investor * Not a Financial Advisor (Always Do Your Own Research)

Texas, USA
$NBIS is a far better BUY right now at $90 with the Microsoft deal in place than it was at $63. I just bought $3500 worth of shares for my daughter at $92.
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I just bought 1,000 $NBIS shares at $96.64
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$NBIS "In 5 years, AI will produce more millionaires than the internet did in 20." -Jensen Huang July 23, 2025
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$NBIS now trading at $109 a share with the average analyst PRICE TARGET at $156.40, a 43% upside. That doesn’t include Goldman Sachs bull case price target of $283 per share.
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Fun Fact: Palantir / Nebius Palantir was founded in 2003 and it took the company 22 years to reach 4B ARR in Q2 of 2025 at a roughly 430B market cap. $NBIS was founded in late 2024. Per top rated coverage analyst Northland Securities, Nebius will reach 4B ARR by end of 2026. That’s roughly 2 years after their launch. Nebius currently trades at a 31B market cap.
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My NEW Price Target for $NBIS: $198 As crazy as it may sound, I believe Nebius is a better buy now at $100 a share than it was yesterday at $63 prior to the Microsoft announcement. Now let’s consider this 20B Microsoft deal at 4B a year over 5 years and a revised valuation and price target. For now I’m going to include within the Microsoft deal the value of the projected 1B ARR for end of this year and even going forward and give this 0 multiple on ARR!! There may be some overlap on the ARR with the NJ data center accounting for some of the projected 1B. Of course I realize that the Microsoft deal won’t be utilizing any of the projected ARR from Finland/Europe but for now I’m viewing this through an extremely conservative lens. I may revise this going forward. Microsoft deal: 17.4B with options to go up to 19.4B. I’m going to give this approx 4B ARR a year for five years. I anticipate this deal will be additive to moat and even expandable going forward. At 10X ARR that’s 40B Subsidiaries valuation: ClickHouse 1.7B, TripleTen and Toloka: 1B, Avride 4B (Motional peer comp)= 6.7B For now I will not factor in share dilution, but I will also not add Nebius 1.4B in cash as I’ll simply view this as Capex. So my new valuation is 46.7B with 235M outstanding shares which makes my new price target $198 a share. Let’s not forget CEO Arkady Volozh said following the Microsoft announcement that more contracts are expected. Not financial advice. Do your own research 😁
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Goldman Sachs just cited their new BULL case this morning for $NBIS as a 92B valuation or $283 per share. This bull case would be a 135% increase from the current stock price!
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JP Morgan going in for MORE $NBIS !! Bullish šŸ”„
🚨JUST IN: $NBIS JP Morgan $JPM has released 13F adding NEBIUS massively with another 526K shares. Total 1.37M āœ… shares or $154.32M Top #9 Institutional shareholder. 🐳
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Congrats to all $NBIS holders today. šŸ™ŒšŸ» 17B five year deal just announced with Microsoft. Today is a historic day for Nebius and in my life. I’ve been very open about being all in on Nebius 100% of my portfolio since April and I’m so grateful to the whole incredible Nebius community today. A day to remember! The future is incredibly bright! A 100B company in the making šŸ™ŒšŸ»
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Just bought 1,000 shares of $NBIS at $93.90. Love the upside here. To be clear I don’t care about short term volatility. I am not a trader. Only investing for long term and plan to hold the shares for years. (Not financial advice, do your own research)
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My father asked his broker about $NBIS today. His broker works for a MAJOR investment firm that I won’t name here. He had never even heard of the company and said it looks like just a momentum play. That’s how early we are with Nebius. My father bought 300 shares and said he plans to double his shares or more on Monday
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Nebius investors — $NBIS reached out to me directly and I will hopefully be receiving some special updates soon including info about Nebius merchandise 😊!!
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For those who don’t understand the recent $NBIS selloff, data indicates that many weak-handed retail investors panic-sold for no rational/structural reason. But the selloff was manufactured, institutions were quietly accumulating shares in volume and using call options to hide their buys. Institutions took some retail to the cleaners, taking their valuable shares at a massive discount. Congrats to all $NBIS bulls who HELD due to reason-based conviction. Always do your own research. Always know what you own and why. You can’t borrow conviction.
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$NBIS potential catalysts on the horizon: āœ… After Goldman Sachs update last week, the Nebius average analyst price target is now $156.40 a share. Goldman issued bull case price target of $283 a share. •Announcement of two new greenfield sites (one site recently purchased in Birmingham, Alabama) • London data center officially launches • New US data center announcement • upcoming Toloka announcement hinted at • New major firm analyst coverage (still only five institutions cover with potential coverage soon by major firms, possibly 3 that handled the recent bond sale/capital raise Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citi) • DataOne CEO announcement of new development expected to transform AI Infrastructure (end of this month) • Dan Ives issues price target / coverage • New Hyperscaler deal announcement! (Arkady mentioned Microsoft was one of a few they expect) • Avride funding deal announcement • December 2025 inclusion of Nebius in the Nasdaq 100 index. All requirements have to date been met. Grok estimates an 85% chance of inclusion end of this year. • ClickHouse IPO (within 6 months) after CEO said last week they will now move toward IPO (Nebius owns 28% stake) • Q3 call Nebius potentially raises ARR projection for end of 2025 again and gives an ARR projection for end of 2026 (w/ revenue from Microsoft deal favored in)
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I believe $NBIS is significantly undervalued right now and actually should be worth $184 per share. Here’s how I get there: •Estimated 3.5B ARR for five years from Microsoft deal (NJ data center) is 17.4B distributed equally at 3.5B per year then using a 10X ARR multiple=35B (For the sake of ease I’m assuming equal distribution of the revenue though it may be more heavily front-loaded w/ pre-payments (as Goldman Sachs noted) to help complete NJ data center. But to be more conservative here I am also not counting the optional 2B additional revenue which if utilized will make the deal worth 19.4B) •Projected end of 2025 1B ARR at 10X ARR multiple = 10B •Cash=1.68B + 1B raised via new shares + 2.75B raised conv bonds = 5.4B •Subsidiaries TripleTen and Toloka 1B, Avride 4B (Motional peer comp) + ClickHouse stake 1.7B= 6.7B Total value = 57.1B - Capex deduction 12.1B (For now I will just be extremely conservative and deduct ALL of the cash and ALL of the combined value of the subsidiaries as future capex) 57.1B-12.1B = 45B total valuation or $184 per share Note — this valuation does NOT factor in any new hypothetical hyperscale deals related to a possible data center build at the recently-acquired 79 acres in Birmingham, Alabama. If a major deal materializes, which Arkady said is likely, then I might soon need to revise upward significantly.
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Five years from now: Wait…you invested in $NBIS back in 2025??
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I hope everyone who has taken my advice on $NBIS and bought into this incredible company has made money! I’m an investor, not a trader, and I’m officially up seven figures this year on Nebius. I started buying in May at $23 and posting a few insights and with more deep dive research went all in at $33 and been posting almost every day since June. My brother and my daughter have both seen over 100% gains (life changing for them) and my father who is very conservative bought at $90 when I told him the stock was still seriously undervalued after the Microsoft deal. The Nebius community is second to none, the most informed and rational and pleasant. I’m very grateful for you all and proud to be on board with you. Long game šŸ™ŒšŸ»
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Fun Fact: Only five institutional analysts cover $NBIS right now and ONLY ONE—Northland Securities—met with Nebius management to dig deeper after the Microsoft deal was announced. Their price target, a street high $206 a share
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Massive $NBIS buyer just came in — 63M worth of Nebius shares
Someone just bought $63M of $NBIS
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I’ve added 1,000 shares overall to my $NBIS position earlier today at $86 a share and have zero concerns with the pullback as I believe there are no structural issues here. The Ai boom is not a bubble. The spending isn’t stopping. It is NOT slowing. It’s ONLY increasing and will be increasing for years to come. The argument that Ai is being debt financed and companies will somehow collapse under the weight of their own debt is not plausible. Yes capex is enormous and some individual companies balance sheets are too debt heavy with poor interest rates and this is a perfectly valid concern. But all are not built the same. Nebius for example has very low debt at very low interest (around 2.7% average), ~5B cash reserve, 6+ billions of value in subsidiaries, a world class integrated software stack contributing to stable QoQ 71% gross margins, revenue growth outpacing growth of expenses, compounding ARR at historic rates predicted to grow at 600-800% from end 2025 to end 2026 and are financed in significant part (17-19 billion) by Microsoft, who has a better credit rating than the US government. Some are treating Ai as a 2025 momentum play now and are busy panic selling and/or moving toward perceived ā€œsafeā€ sectors that ironically will be hit much harder in the event of an actual economic downturn or recession because they depend on cyclical/consumer financing. Meanwhile governments and big tech will continue to finance the Ai revolution at an exponentially increasing rate for years to come. (NFA of course, do your own research)
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I am revising my $NBIS bear case valuation metrics but keeping my bear case price target of $150 The main reason for this revision is that after completing my deep dive on CEO Arkady Volozh revenue guidance over 44 quarters while at Yandex there has never been a single year from 2011-2022 where he did not meet or exceed guidance (even during COVID in 2020 or the Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022 where guidance was withdrawn but ultimately still met or exceeded). Nebius guidance was just confirmed Q3 setting the stage for 13 years straight. No other major tech CEO has ever achieved this—not Huang, Jobs, Su, Pichai, Nadella, Cook, Zuckerberg or Musk come even close. Nebius has guided for 7B-9B ARR by end of 2026 but during the Q3 call also indicated that OVER HALF of this has already been contracted for. Considering this head start on the ARR and Arkady’s flawless history of meeting or exceeding guidance even during extreme duress, I just don’t think I can reasonably justify assuming even in a bear case scenario that Nebius will come in 2 billion under the low end of the guidance (my prior bear case disaster scenario). So instead my bear case will assume the lowest end of the offered guidance at 7B ARR. Now let’s assume a bear market ARR multiple akin to the lows seen in the bear market of 2022. At that time no public company growing at 100% ARR YoY was trading at a multiple less than 7X. Per Grok during the worst trough of the 2022 bear market ā€”ā€œNo public SaaS or cloud companies trading at 100%+ YoY revenue growth (measured via LTM or forward guidance) dipped below 7x EV/forward revenue multiples during the trough (roughly Q3-Q4 2022).ā€ So we have 7X 7B ARR or 49B valuation. Of course I will continue to view the ~5B cash and all subsidiaries (6B+) purely as capex for the buildout. I will continue to assume FULL dilution (~22M more shares based on the convertible bond sale) plus full dilution for the 25M ATM optional shares which gets me to ~297M shares outstanding. I WILL ADD 10% MORE DILUTION: my prior bear case did not assume additional dilution. Nebius management has indicated a willingness to sell their subsidiaries for non dilutive capex but let’s say they don’t sell them next year. I will add an additional 10% share dilution of nearly 30M more shares (note that this is hypothetical and there is no such plan to do so yet) to take the shares outstanding up to 326.7M. 49B market cap with 326.7M shares outstanding comes to $150 per share
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I started buying $NBIS at 23 and 27 and then after completing deep dive research went all in at an average cost of $34 a share. To date I’m up 113 %. To anyone arriving now, no I do not think you are too late. There are still only five analysts currently covering the stock with an average target price of $83 a share. The institutional ownership is still under 50%. Imo we are still in the early stage with tremendous upside potential from here.
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$NBIS my new rough ARR-based valuation and price target of $198 per share: Within 2 months Nebius will achieve 1B ARR without counting the Microsoft deal. At a 12X multiple (more conservative than peer Coreweave which trades at roughly 14X ARR), we get 12B. The Microsoft deal is worth 17.4B over five years. In its most recent report, Goldman Sachs projects the deal may be more heavily front-loaded with a significant pre-payment, but for the sake of simplicity let’s assume an equal annual distribution of $3.5B each year for five years. To be more conservative here, I will not count the optional 2B in additional revenue. At a 12X multiple, that 3.5B equates to around 42B. The total here is $54B so far. Now to consider cash and subsidiaries: Cash=1.68B + 1B raised via new shares + 2.75B raised conv bonds = $5.4B cash Subsidiaries TripleTen and Toloka 1B, Avride 4B (Motional, Wayve peer comp) + 28% ClickHouse stake currently 1.7B= $6.7B (note that I believe this $6.7B to be conservative due to new estimates of ClickHouse value as they move toward an IPO, and UK peer Wayve’s recent valuation just came in at 8B, making my valuation for Avride perhaps more conservative at 4B) Total value of all cash and subsidiaries: $12.1B To be more conservative here, I will simply assign ZERO VALUE for all the cash and all the subsidiaries and consider all $12.1B to be future capex. Total value = $54B with roughly 250M shares outstanding (which includes the shares sold at $92.50 from the recent equity raise) or roughly $215 per share. Now I will consider future share dilution which will add roughly 22,700,000 shares (assuming full dilution from the recent convertible bond sale). So 54B with roughly 272,700,00 shares outstanding equates to a stock price of roughly $198 per share.
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ANALYST UPGRADE— Arete Research raises $NBIS price target from $84 to $128
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Sarfatti Investment Research (Via Seeking Alpha) just initiated coverage today on $NBIS with a STRONG BUY and a PRICE TARGET of $240 per share They cited comprehensive ecosystem and neocloud leadership, saying they ā€œstrongly believe that Nebius has the potential to become a diversified tech company standing alongside names like Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)…Nebius Group is going to be a technology giant and not just a neocloud running data centers.ā€ seekingalpha.com/article/482…
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$NBIS announces expanding NJ and Missouri data centers PLUS adding new ones this year and in 2026!!!
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$NBIS potential catalysts that could lead to another re-rating prior to Q3 call: • Announcement of two new greenfield sites • London data center officially launches • New US data center announcement • Updated coverage from Northland • New major firm analyst coverage • DataOne CEO announcement of new development expected to transform AI Infrastructure • Dan Ives issues price target • New Hyperscaler deal announcement (Arkady mentioned Microsoft was one of a few they expect) • Avride investor deal announcement
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Updated $NBIS bull catalyst list — āœ… After the last Goldman Sachs update, the Nebius average analyst price target is now $156.40 a share (this includes Goldman’s base case of $137). Goldman also issued a bull case price target of $283 a share! āœ… New Data Center launch in Israel! • Nebius will be announcing news before and during the October 28-29 conference w/Nvidia in attendance in DC w/ Nebius CEO/Founder Arkady Volozh also in attendance. • MtG w/ reps from US Department of Defense tomorrow (see attached doc below) • Fed rate cuts more likely now through year end based on Powell’s comments and CPI data. Highly bullish for tech growth stocks •Announcement of two new Nebius greenfield sites (one site recently purchased in Birmingham, Alabama which already has a building in a state with 6GW excess power and very low power rates. Local company Alabama Power that handles Birmingham has the capability to handle a 150-300+MW DC) • London data center officially launches before end of this year! • New US data center announcement before end of this year • upcoming Nebius subsidiary Toloka bullish announcement hinted at by management • New major firm analyst coverage (still only FIVE institutions cover with potential coverage soon by major firms, possibly 3 that handled the recent bond sale/capital raise Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citi) • DataOne CEO Charles-Antoine Beyney announcement of new revolutionary tech development for the AI Infrastructure sector (within two weeks, see attached quote from last week below) • Dan Ives issues price target / coverage • New Hyperscaler deal announcement! (Arkady mentioned Microsoft was one of a few they expect) • Nebius subsidiary Avride new valuation issued āœ… Avride new funding deal announced w/Nebius and Uber investment of up to $375M. • December 2025 inclusion of Nebius in the Nasdaq 100 index. All requirements have currently been met. Nebius must maintain a market cap of over 30B by the last trading day in November. Grok estimates an 80-85% chance of inclusion end of this year. • ClickHouse IPO (within 6 months?) after CEO said last week they will now move toward IPO (Nebius owns 28% stake). Estimates of ClickHouse valuation continue to climb higher • Q3 call Nebius potentially raises ARR projection for end of 2025 again and gives an ARR projection for end of 2026 (w/ revenue from Microsoft deal favored in); Northland Securities estimates a potential 300% increase in ARR by end of 2026 up to 4B
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I’m all in $NBIS and I’m not selling a single share! Nebius is a far better buy now at 90 than at 63 yesterday. There is some profit taking after the surge, to be expected. But imo the market actually hasn’t caught up yet to the valuation on $NBIS. The company is trading now at roughly 21.5B with an options-in 19.4B Microsoft deal. Let’s say the deal is worth 3B ARR over the next six years. Let’s throw in this year’s end of year projection of 1B ARR. At 4B ARR at 10X multiple it’s hard not to see a 40B value right there. Add in what could easily be 6 billion in subsidiary value and over a billion in cash. We are talking over double the current valuation right now. My price target end of THIS YEAR is $198 a share. Founder/CEO Arkady who is as conservative as it gets when it comes to projections, always under promising and over delivering, indicated yesterday that more deals are on the way. $200 a share looks justifiable right now. The Microsoft deal gives Nebius the solidity to double from there. NFA
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$NBIS recent bullish developments and upcoming catalysts to consider as we approach Q3 Earnings Call on Tuesday, November 11th — āœ… After DA Davidson just raised Nebius price target to $150, the average analyst price target is now $161.40 (this includes Goldman’s base case of $137). Goldman also issued a bull case price target of $283 a share. āœ… New Data Center launch in Israel! • Fed rate cuts through year end. Highly bullish for tech growth stocks if the rate cuts continue āœ…London data center officially launched November 6th! Will add 150M ARR on its own āœ… Nebius launches Token Factory which cuts costs 70%, via custom ODM chassis/software moat, scales to 200B tokens/day, and deploys models with sub-second latency and enterprise security. āœ… Avride new funding deal announced w/Nebius and Uber investment of up to $375M. • Macro catalyst — US government reopens on a deal to end the filibuster •Announcement of two new Nebius greenfield sites (one site recently purchased in Birmingham, Alabama which already has a building in a state with 6GW excess power and very low power rates. Local company Alabama Power that handles Birmingham has the capability to handle a 150-400+MW DC) • New US data center announcement before end of this year • Nebius subsidiary Toloka bullish announcement hinted at by management • New major firm analyst coverage (still only FIVE institutions cover with potential coverage soon by major firms, possibly 3 that handled the recent bond sale/capital raise Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citi) • DataOne CEO Charles-Antoine Beyney announcement of new revolutionary tech development for the AI Infrastructure sector expected to be imminent! Perhaps 1-2 weeks • Dan Ives issues price target / coverage • New Hyperscaler deal announcement! (Arkady mentioned Microsoft was one of a few they expect) • Nebius subsidiary Avride new valuation issued • Nebius will officially be added to MCSI Index on November 24th at close expected to boost liquidity/institutional inflows (~$100M+ est. from passive funds) • December 2025 possible inclusion of Nebius in the Nasdaq 100 index. Nebius must maintain a market cap of over 30B by the last trading day in November for a chance of inclusion end of this year. Per Grok this addition ā€œcould drive $1B+ inflows, pushing institutional ownership to 65%-80%ā€ • ClickHouse IPO (within 6 months?) after CEO said last week they will now move toward IPO (Nebius owns 28% stake). Estimates of ClickHouse valuation continue to climb higher • Q3 call Nebius potentially raises ARR projection for end of 2025 again and gives an ARR projection for end of 2026 (w/ revenue from Microsoft deal factored in); Northland Securities estimates a potential 300% increase in ARR by end of 2026 up to 4B • Upcoming decision on EU AI initiative funding! Decisions made in December with announcements expected in January 2026. Nebius’ experience building large DCs, their sovereign compliant AI cloud and Nvidia Reference Cloud Partner status (one of only a handful in world) uniquely positions them for a possible major grant/win.
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I would hate to be sitting on the sideline with $NBIS right now, knowing the average analyst price target just hit $153 a share, knowing that another major hyperscaler deal could be announced any day. Arkady stated publicly that Microsoft deal is the first of a few. Only a matter of time…
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Goldman Sachs sees EBITDA of 5.2 billion for $NBIS by end of 2026!! They also are forecasting an incredible 6.4B in revenue by end of 2026! Is this revenue even possible by Q4 2026? If Nebius completes their 300MW NJ facility by Q1 they can begin to activate the Microsoft revenue stream there which might account for half of this projected revenue. Can they achieve another 3B from the other data centers combined?
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$NBIS now trading at $106 a share with average analyst price target at $156.40, a 47% upside. That doesn’t include Goldman Sachs bull case price target of $283 per share.
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$NBIS Founder/CEO Arkady Volozh isn’t a normal guy, he’s one of the great visionary tech geniuses of our time. For those who are interested, I’ve compiled more about his pre-Yandex history based on grok deep dive research — By 1986, fresh out of university, Volozh joined the Soviet Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Oil and Gas Problems as a junior researcher. There, he worked on AI-driven geological modeling, writing code to optimize seismic data analysis. His algorithms improved prediction accuracy by 20–30% in simulations. At age 25, he founded CompTek, Russia’s first company focused on computer networking and telecom software. CompTek developed protocols for packet-switched networks, predating widespread internet adoption in Russia. One key product was a TCP/IP stack for Soviet Elbrus computers, which enabled early email and file-sharing systems among academics and enterprises. This was groundbreaking: while the global web was embryonic (CERN’s first website launched in 1991), Volozh was building the infrastructure for Russia’s nascent digital economy. At CompTek he personally authored much of the core networking code in C and Fortran, adapting Western standards like X.25 to Soviet hardware constraints. Peers described him as a ā€œcode wizardā€ who could debug complex systems overnight, often working 18-hour days. His genius shone in foresight: he anticipated the internet’s commercialization, securing CompTek’s pivot to ISP services by 1994, making it Russia’s first commercial internet provider (InfiNet) In 1989–1990, under Volozh’s direction, the Akkadia team developed BibleSearch, one of the world’s first full-text Bible search systems. It indexed the King James Version and other translations, enabling phrase-based queries and handling inflections like ā€œrun/ran/runningā€, and relevance ranking—features that anticipated modern search like Google’s PageRank. Volozh himself coded the core indexing algorithm, using inverted indices and stemming techniques inspired by Soviet linguist Yuri Apresyan’s work. The system ran on MS-DOS and early Unix ports, processing 1–2 MB texts (massive for 1990 hardware). It was commercialized in 1991 as a CD-ROM product, selling thousands of copies in Europe and the US, and validated Volozh’s genius by solving scalability issues that stumped contemporaries (e.g., handling Hebrew/Greek polyglots without OCR errors). Arkadia’s other pre-Yandex milestone was a global patent search engine (1990–1992), built for the International Patent Classification database. Volozh’s team ingested 1.5 million patents from USPTO and EPO, and his code innovations included early vector space models for semantic search, reducing false positives by 40% compared to Boolean systems. Volozh was a prolific coder, not just a visionary CEO. Throughout the 1980s–1990s, he wrote thousands of lines in C, Pascal, and Lisp, focusing on low-level optimizations for resource-starved Soviet machines (e.g., 640KB RAM limits). In interviews (e.g., 2010 Forbes Russia), he credited his ā€œhacker ethosā€ to late-night sessions porting games like Elite to local hardware. Colleagues like Segalovich noted that Volozh spotted inefficiencies that others missed and had an ability to ā€œarchitect code like a chess grandmaster.ā€ Volozh also prototyped an English-Russian MT system using rule-based grammars and statistical models—15 years before Google Translate. It achieved 70% accuracy on technical texts, published in Nauka i Tekhnika (Soviet journal). He got the First Russian AI Patent in 1988 at age 24, a USSR patent for an ā€œadaptive neural network for pattern recognition in geophysical data,ā€ using backpropagation precursors. This predated widespread neural nets and influenced oil industry software. All of these achievements prior to Yandex which he scaled to Russia’s 140M users by 2000. As a Nebius investor, you can be confident that we have a truly unique visionary genius at the helm!
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$NBIS is in a prime position to capitalize on the Ai buildout in Germany which Jensen Huang now says will be one of the largest markets in the world Long game
NVIDIA CEO ON CALL - GERMANY WILL BE ONE OF THE LARGEST AI MARKETS IN THE WORLD; I CAN'T WAIT FOR US TO INVEST EVEN MORE
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JUST IN — $NBIS NEW rough ARR-based valuation and Nebius 12 month PRICE TARGET: CALCULATION: Confirmed on Q3 call, next month Nebius will achieve Guidance of 1B ARR without counting the Microsoft deal. They have on the Q3 call today announced a new 3B deal with META and issued new guidance for 7-9B ARR by end of 2026. Arkady has a history of being conservative with guidance and under promising and overdelivering. Nevertheless I will assume the midpoint case of 8B. Note that this rate of growth 1B-8B ARR YoY from end of 2025 to end of 2026 would be 700% and at this scale would be unprecedented in the history of the stock market. A rate of growth this high tends to command the highest end multiple that hyperscalers/clouds have commanded such as 20X+. Per Grok with this level of growth ā€œthe implied ARR multiple for valuation would likely fall in the 18x–28x range.ā€ But I will be more conservative and use a much lower 12X multiple here. At 12X 8B ARR we get $96 Billion valuation. Now to consider cash and subsidiaries: Cash=1.68B + 1B raised via new shares + 2.75B raised conv bonds = $5.4B cash Subsidiaries TripleTen and Toloka 1B, Avride 4B (Motional, Wayve peer comps) + 28% ClickHouse stake currently 1.7B= $6.7B (note that I believe this $6.7B to be very conservative due to new estimates of ClickHouse value as they have grown rapidly since this valuation and are now moving toward IPO. Total value of all cash and subsidiaries: $12.1B This is a capex intensive business so to be more conservative here, I will simply assign ZERO VALUE for all the cash and all the subsidiaries and treat all $12.1B to be future capex. Total value = $96B with roughly 250M shares outstanding (which includes the shares sold at $92.50 from the recent equity raise) or roughly $215 per share. To account for Future share dilution I will add roughly 22,700,000 more shares (by assuming full dilution from the recent convertible bond sale) and add another additional 25,000,000 optional shares announced on today’s Q3 call. Note that this latest 25M is optional and management indicated will only be issued as needed with respect for dilution and maximizing shareholder value. But to be more conservative here I will add all 25M. So 96B with roughly 297,700,00 shares outstanding equates to a stock price of roughly $322 per share. CONCLUSION: Nebius TARGET PRICE (12 months): $322 per share, a roughly 212% upside from the current stock price of around $103 per share. (not financial advice, always do your own research)
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JUST IN — DA Davidson raises $NBIS PRICE TARGET to $150 from $125 after meeting with Nebius management yesterday!
DA Davidson raised its Price Target on $NBIS from $125 to $150 and keeps a Buy rating 🟢 This follows the firm's meeting with $NBIS' management yesterday during the opening of its first UK data center.
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My $NBIS BEAR CASE valuation and bear price target. Just to be clear this is NOT my low end price target, this is my BEAR CASE which involves a DISASTER for Nebius. Nebius Founder/CEO Arkady Volozh has a history of always issuing conservative guidance. He has a long standing pattern of under promising and overdelivering and tends to revise guidance UPWARD over the course of a year. BUT let’s assume the opposite, total disaster on guidance and Nebius badly misses their ARR target of 7B-9B somehow coming in TWO BILLION SHORT and only achieve 5B ARR by end of next year. In this scenario Nebius would still be growing ARR at 400% YoY. To put that into perspective, Coreweave would be the best peer comp (they’ve traded at 12-14X ARR this year generally (18X high) but they are now trading down today at their lowest multiple all year at roughly 9X ARR with 5B ARR projected end of 2025 at a roughly 45B market cap). But Coreweave is growing ARR at roughly 350% YoY (not the 400% Nebius would achieve in this bear case). Nevertheless despite the higher growth rate for Nebius in this bear scenario, let’s still assume 9XARR (the lowest yearly ARR multiple for Coreweave). So a 9X 5B ARR would bring Nebius to a 45B valuation without counting the cash/subsidiaries. For the sake of being even MORE bearish let’s take away more value from Nebius. Let’s just take away their 5B cash and make that ZERO as lost capex. Then let’s take all of their subsidiaries which at a conservative valuation would be worth roughly 6B+ and let’s assign ZERO value to all of them. So we still remain at 45B. Now let’s FULLY dilute not only by adding the 22.7M shares from the convertible bond sale but also ADD ALL 25M extra shares from the optional ATM. Assuming all the above we get a 45B market cap with 297M shares outstanding which equates to… A bear price target of $151 price per share. Thats a roughly 50% upside from this morning’s $101 stock price.
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Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO of $NBIS, said NO to Google’s acquisition offer in 2003 when Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page proposed to acquire Yandex. Arkady then built Yandex into a 30B company. Arkady is the real deal. Ninety percent of his net worth is now in $NBIS stock. He’s building Nebius the right way with a vision toward long term value, not short term gain.
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How many shares do we need to own to become $NBIS millionaires by 2030?
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I identified $NBIS early and started buying at $23 and $27 and went ALL IN at $33 a share after more deep dive research. I’ve not sold a share to date and have only added to the position. Thx to @mvcinvesting for leading the way and many other great insights from @Sandeman52 and @MktMavPro, @EndicottInvests, @daniel_koss @sarfatti_IR , @babyfolio, @BagelC47, @MVanbrunsc47513, @yianisz, @geokoutalidis, @aleabitoreddit, @meeijer, @RJCcapital, @genZinvest0r and many others in this community for their thoughtful research and reporting. If you are not following these folks, please tune in! I’ve learned so much from you all and still have much much more to learn. The best part we are still so early in the Ai buildout. This is a revolution that will dominate the next ten years with trillions of Ai infrastructure spending. I’m more convinced than ever that Nebius will be a 100B+ company within 1-2 years. Cheers to the journey.
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$NBIS pullback continues this morning, the stock down 22% now from its recent high as we approach Q3 earnings call
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I’ve heard a lot of talk of $NBIS possibly getting to $100 a share before end of year. $100 is just a number. It equates to a 23.7 billion market cap. Nebius is going to be a 100B company within 2-3 years imo. So just to be clear I’m not at all wowed by the prospect of $100 a share. And I wont be selling a single share when we get there.
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JUST IN: Goldman Sachs reiterates BUY rating on $NBIS and raises Price Target from $137 to $150 per share!
$NBIS: GS Reiterates Buy Rating with PT Upgraded to $155. Goldman, in their latest research note, cites the following factors, leading to a PT upgrade. 1) AI demand-supply imbalance 2) Upgraded 2026 power roadmap 3) Continued strong traction from large hyperscalers 4) UK & Israel are strategic regions for growth They have also updated their topline estimates by between 15%-32% and expect higher margins than previously forecasted.
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Just in today, Finance Flash for Seeking Alpha rates $NBIS a STRONG BUY with a 60B fair value market cap or approximately $238 per share. Key quotes: ā€œā€¦the company needs to only achieve growth rates of 20% per year to justify their current valuation, after the MSFT deal (2028). This seems very achievable considering recent growth as well as the grow needed to fulfill MSFT's order.ā€ ā€œBy just adjusting the growth rates after 2028 of 75% and 50% respectively, we get a fair value market cap of $60 billion. Indicating that Nebius could be undervalued by up to 115%ā€¦ā€ ā€œConsidering this, I currently rate Nebius a Strong Buy, and I used every major drop to extend my already existing position.ā€ seekingalpha.com/article/482…
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Out of five analysts currently covering Nebius, the new average $NBIS price target is now $161.40 a share. Consensus average upside of 53% from current stock price of $105 • Northland Securities: $206 (September 24, 2025) • Arete Research: $184 (September 2025) • BWS Financial: $130 (September 2025) • Goldman Sachs: $137 (October 8, 2025) • DA Davidson: $150 (August 2025)
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The results of my research on $NBIS Founder CEO Arkady Volozh's history of meeting or exceeding revenue guidance. In summary this is not a man I would be willing to bet against as he leads Nebius into 2026. Looking back at his days at Yandex, Arkady met or exceeded revenue guidance for every single year of the 12 years from public listing in 2011 to 2022 as CEO. This even accounts for instances where guidance was withdrawn (e.g., 2020 due to COVID-19 and 2022 due to geopolitical events) but actual results still aligned with or surpassed the initial targets. Here's a breakdown of the results (in summary form courtesy of Grok): 2011 Initial Guidance: 55–60% YoY growth Updated Guidance: Reaffirmed throughout Actual YoY Growth: 60% Met/Exceeded: Yes (top end) Notes: Strong post-IPO performance; consistent quarterly momentum with no downward revisions. 2012 Initial Guidance: 40–45% YoY growth Updated Guidance: Narrowed to upper end in Q3 Actual YoY Growth: 44% Met/Exceeded: Yes (met) Notes: Revenue RUB 28.8B, aligned with forecasts; positive updates reflected steady growth. 2013 Initial Guidance: 28–32% YoY growth Updated Guidance: Raised to 30–35% in Q1, 34–38% in Q2, high end in Q3 Actual YoY Growth: 36% Met/Exceeded: Yes (exceeded initial) Notes: Multiple upward revisions driven by strong ad revenue; growth at top of final range. 2014 Initial Guidance: 25–30% YoY growth Updated Guidance: Revised for economy (e.g., Q3: 27–30%) Actual YoY Growth: 28.5% Met/Exceeded: Yes (within revised) Notes: Economic crisis (ruble devaluation) led to adjustments; met final range despite challenges. 2015 Initial Guidance: 15–18% YoY growth Updated Guidance: Revised down in some quarters (e.g., Q3: 27–30% but overall aligned) Actual YoY Growth: 17.8% Met/Exceeded: Yes (within initial/revised) Notes: Continued crisis impacted growth; one quarterly below initial but full year met with upward revisions later. 2016 Initial Guidance: 12–16% YoY growth (conservative) Updated Guidance: Raised to 17–20% in Q1, 18–21% in Q2, 22–24% in Q3 Actual YoY Growth: 27% Met/Exceeded: Yes (exceeded) Notes: Strong outperformance across quarters; diversification into non-search segments. 2017 Initial Guidance: 22–23% YoY growth (from prior updates) Updated Guidance: Incremental upward adjustments Actual YoY Growth: 24% Met/Exceeded: Yes (exceeded) Notes: Consistent above-guidance performance; boosted by Google settlement and mobile gains. 2018 Initial Guidance: 25–30% YoY growth Updated Guidance: Raised to 27–32% after Q1, then to 35–38% in Q3 Actual YoY Growth: 36% Met/Exceeded: Yes (exceeded) Notes: Robust growth in new segments like taxi and e-commerce; fastest growth in six years. 2019 Initial Guidance: 28–32% YoY growth Updated Guidance: Raised to 30–34% in Q1, 32–36% in Q2, 36–38% in Q3 Actual YoY Growth: 37–39% (ex-Market deconsolidation) Met/Exceeded: Yes (exceeded) Notes: Multiple raises due to e-commerce and taxi momentum; excluded Yandex.Market JV. 2020 Initial Guidance: 22–26% YoY growth Updated Guidance: Withdrawn in Q1 due to COVID Actual YoY Growth: 24% Met/Exceeded: Yes (within initial, pre-withdrawal) Notes: Resilient performance despite pandemic; revenue RUB 218.3B. 2021 Initial Guidance: 315–330B RUB absolute (~45% implied) Updated Guidance: Raised to 330–340B in Q2, 340–350B in Q3 Actual YoY Growth: 63% (356B RUB) Met/Exceeded: Yes (exceeded) Notes: Explosive growth in services; exceeded all updates. 2022 Initial Guidance: 490–500B RUB (~38% implied) Updated Guidance: Withdrawn in Q1 due to geopolitical events Actual YoY Growth: 46% (522B RUB) Met/Exceeded: N/A (guidance withdrawn, but exceeded initial) Notes: Volozh stepped down mid-year; performance contributed during tenure exceeded pre-withdrawal target.
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This new $NBIS partnership with Accenture is highly bullish per Grok: ā€œAccenture’s global reach (700,000+ employees) could onboard 50–100 new clients, adding $300M+ ARR by 2026. It mitigates customer concentration (Microsoft ~70%) and supports 80%+ utilizationā€¦ā€
🚨 $NBIS x Accenture partnership officially announced during today's GTC session. "Nebius Ɨ Accenture = an AI-first cloud + an execution blueprint that moves enterprises from POC to production - fast, governed, and sovereign. Nebius brings supercomputer-class performance with modern cloud flexibility Accenture brings industry know-how and delivery at scale. Together, we deliver a secure, full-stack sovereign AI cloud, from infrastructure to applications, that helps enterprises and public-sector organizations deploy AI faster." — Laurelle Roseman, VP of Global Partnerships at $NBIS BIG news.
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Virtually no premium is put on $NBIS for the fact that one of the great tech minds of our time is founder/CEO and has virtually 90 percent of his net worth in Nebius stock. Arkady Volozh is the real deal. Almost incredible thinking we have the opportunity now to invest in his masterwork company when it’s only valued at a 12.5B market cap. There is a very achievable path to 50B MC by end of 2026. Some believe there is a path to 100B within the next 3-5 years…
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Not selling a share of $NBIS, buying under $130 is a gift. Long game
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Someone just picked up 4M worth of $NBIS shares …
$NBIS seeing a little 🐳 action after-hoursšŸ‘€ šŸ‘€We spotted this 🐳 picking up $4M worth of $NBIS shares after-hoursšŸ‘€
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$NBIS acquires massive land purchase in Birmingham, Alabama. The site is large and could facilitate a new data center buildout of significant size
🚨 $NBIS update: Massive land grab for U.S. expansion! Nebius has acquired 79 acres of land in Birmingham, Alabama šŸŸļø about the size of 45 soccer fields. The site is large enough to support a 300+ MW AI data center campus āš”ļø They paid about $90M. At full build-out it could power $2–3B in annual recurring revenue šŸ’° This makes it a strong candidate to become Nebius’ flagship Southeast AI hub 🌐 Everyone can buy land or power, but only Nebius can use it to power the best AI Cloud. $NBIS $CRWV $IREN
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$NBIS down 15% now from last week’s high. A good discount with Q3 earnings coming up soon
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Massively bullish update for $NBIS!! Wow. NJ data center is already capable right now of delivering 50MW. To put this in perspective, the Finnish data center alone is projected to yield 1B ARR for its 75MW. The question is how fast Nebius can get these 50MW utilized. Btw it appears that this update was confirmed in the chain by the CEO of DataOne, the contractor hired by Nebius to build the data center.
🚨JUST IN — $NBIS datacenter in New Jersey is now capable of delivering 50MW. This datacenter could deliver up to 300MW once completed in 6-9 monthsšŸ”„
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$NBIS will be launching its first AI data center in London not by end of this year but rather in a matter of weeks šŸ”„
In the coming weeks, $NBIS will launch its first UK-based data center and deliver its first Blackwell Ultra cluster. ā€œStay tunedā€¦ā€
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Rock star tech analyst Dan Ives has just added $NBIS to his AI Revolution top 30 list !! šŸ™ŒšŸ» Major recognition coup for Nebius here to be included in Dan’s top 30 companies that will define the future of AI !
We are updating the IVES AI Revolution 30 list reflecting recent momentum in the AI Revolution. We are adding CrowdStrike, Roblox, GE Vernova, and Nebius to our list of 30 tech companies that we believe will define the future of the AI theme over the coming years. šŸ”„šŸ†šŸ‚šŸŽÆšŸæ
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$NBIS trading at a 23B market cap now with Goldman Sachs estimating 6.4B in revenue just from the core business by end of next year. I believe Nebius is significantly undervalued and should be worth about 45B right now. Here’s how I get to 45B with a quick rough ā€˜napkin’ valuation: •Estimated 3.5B ARR for five years from Microsoft deal (NJ data center) is 17.4B distributed equally at 3.5B per year then using a 10X ARR multiple=35B (For the sake of ease I’m assuming equal distribution of the revenue though it may be more heavily front-loaded w/ pre-payments (as Goldman Sachs noted) to help complete NJ data center. But to be more conservative here I am also not counting the optional 2B additional revenue) •Projected end of 2025 1B ARR at 10X ARR multiple = 10B •Cash=1.68B + 1B raised via new shares + 2.75B raised conv bonds = 5.4B •Subsidiaries TripleTen and Toloka 1B, Avride 4B (Motional peer comp) + ClickHouse stake 1.7B= 6.7B Total value = 57.1B - Capex deduction 12.1B (For now I will be more conservative and deduct all of the cash and all of the combined value of the subsidiaries as capex) 57.1B-12.1B = 45B total valuation or $184 per share with a 94% upside
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Five analysts including Goldman Sachs currently cover $NBIS with an average price target of around $89. Shares currently trading in the mid 60’s
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$NBIS Q3 results JUST IN with headlines ANNOUNCED!! šŸ”„šŸ”„ WOW 2026 ARR guidance of $7 billion to $9 billion: We expect annualized run-rate revenue for the end of 2026 of $7 billion to $9 billion, reflecting the impact of major customer agreements including Microsoft, Meta, and others coming online. Major upgrade to capacity expansion guidance:
We now expect contracted capacity at the end of 2026 of 2.5 GW, up from the 1 GW we previously forecast. This increased capacity will directly fuel accelerated revenue growth as we meet exceptionally strong market demand. Strategic customer wins: Today we announced an agreement with Meta for Al infrastructure valued at around $3 billion over a five-year term. These large-scale deals drive our growth trajectory and fuel the accelerated growth of our core Al cloud business. ā€œ2025 has been a building year as we put in place the infrastructure and framework for future rapid growth. This year, we believe that we have successfully laid the foundations for an outstanding 2026 — a year that should firmly position us among the top AI cloud businesses globally. And at the same time, 2026 is still just the beginning.ā€ —Arkady Volozh
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Northland Securities reiterates its OUTPERFORM rating for $NBIS and price target of $206 a share
Northland reiterates its Outperform rating and $206 Price Target on $NBIS ahead of Q3 results 🟢 The analyst noted that $NBIS reportedly bought a 79-acre site in Birmingham, AL for $90M, apparently without power currently contracted, but with good potential to secure additional capacity that could put the company ahead of its 1GW contracted power target for CY26.
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$NBIS — Courtesy of Sarfatti Research, the majority of 13Fs are in now and the results show massive volumes of institutional BUYING of Nebius: ā€œThere is a net buying of 18.5 million shares in Q3 2025. That is almost 24 million shares bought versus 5.4 million shares sold.ā€ ā€œTop investment banks like UBS (+2.3m shares), Wells Fargo (+2.4m shares), and BNP Paribas (+1.5m shares) have added as well. This is in addition to other investment banks like Citi, Baird, JP Morgan, William Blair, etc.ā€ ā€œEven George Soros' fund, Soros Capital Management added 229k shares. These are top investment managers. Nebius's ownership consists of the world's best investment managers, not just retail. I cannot get more bullish.ā€
$NBIS: The majority of 13F filings are out and institutions are buying huge amounts of Nebius shares. Not just any institutions, but some of the world's best investment managers. There is a net buying of 18.5 million shares in Q3 2025. That is almost 24 million shares bought versus 5.4 million shares sold. Top quant funds like Two Sigma (+2.2m shares) and Hudson River Trading (+450k shares) have added to their positions. Top investment banks like UBS (+2.3m shares), Wells Fargo (+2.4m shares), and BNP Paribas (+1.5m shares) have added as well. This is in addition to other investment banks like Citi, Baird, JP Morgan, William Blair, etc. Even George Soros' fund, Soros Capital Management added 229k shares. Ray Dalio's fund, Bridgewater, added 55k shares. Blackrock added a small amount as well. These are top investment managers. Nebius's ownership consists of the world's best investment managers, not just retail. I cannot get more bullish.
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In ā€œNebius: Microsoft Deal Crushes Bear Thesis; A Bear Turns Bullishā€ Seeking Alpha Investing Group Leader Julian Lin sees the possibility for a re-rating of $NBIS to $147 a share (63% higher than the current price): ā€œEven after the large run-up, I am of the view that the market has still not woken up to the significance of this deal.ā€ ā€œThe deal positions NBIS for further upside if it secures additional hyperscaler contracts, potentially driving a re-rating to $147 per share.ā€
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$NBIS catalysts that could lead to another re-rating prior to Q3 call: āœ… Northland Securities raises PT to street high of $206 after meeting w/ Nebius management •Announcement of two new greenfield sites • London data center officially launches • New US data center announcement • upcoming Toloka announcement • New major firm analyst coverage • DataOne CEO announcement of new development expected to transform AI Infrastructure (October) • Dan Ives issues price target • New Hyperscaler deal announcement! (Arkady mentioned Microsoft was one of a few they expect) • Avride funding deal announcement
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$NBIS rises on being added to the MSCI index! Next up the Nasdaq 100?
BREAKING: $NBIS rises 5% after getting added to MSCI index.
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Highly bullish for $NBIS
JUST IN: $NBIS is spiking after Bloomberg reported that Microsoft is forecasting data center constraints through 2026, longer than previously outlined. šŸ‘€ They are literally turning away Azure customers right now due to lack of capacity. BULLISH.
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Massive $NBIS buy this afternoon
$NBIS 🐳 ALERT 🚨 🚨At 3:50 pm today some 🐳 picked up $11.8M worth of $NBIS 🚨
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$NBIS strong institutional BUYING continuing today, and with all of the volume buying, per Fintel Institutional ownership of Nebius has officially reached 50% as of today! Fintel other key highlights: • The number of institutions holding shares rose by 26.47% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). • Total institutional long shares increased by 13.22 million shares, a 14.88% QoQ gain, bringing the total to approximately 110.11 million shares held by 616 institutions. This reflects strong accumulation, with average portfolio allocation to $NBIS up 38.42% QoQ—well above peer levels. fintel.io/so/us/nbis
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$NBIS CEO founder Arkady is very conservative when it comes to projections. He consistently under promises and over delivers. Yet he stated publicly after announcing the $NBIS deal with Microsoft that he expects more big deals. So my only question is when does the ink dry?
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D.A. Davidson analyst Alex Platt reiterates BUY rating and raises $NBIS PRICE TARGET to $150 a share after a MTG yesterday afternoon with Nebius management. Per TipRanks, Platt has an analyst success rate of 100.0% and a total average return of 174.6% over the past year… moomoo.com/news/post/6115056…
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$NBIS currently trading at 15.4B valuation. But what is the aggregate value of its subsidiaries: Avride, Bezos-backed Toloka, and TripleTen? The 28% ClickHouse stake alone is worth at least 1.7B based on recent funding, but ClickHouse is quickly building a premium name and reputation with clients like Tesla! The IPO could be double its current valuation in the next 12 months. I’ve seen projections for Toloka at around 2B. Grok claims the closest peer comp to Avride in terms of its operational model and ride-hailing partnerships is Waymo which currently has a 45B valuation. Motional is another peer comp in a more similar earlier stage of development with Hyundai partnerships also using the IONIQ 5 with an approximate 4.1B valuation (per Grok). Avride is partnered with Hyundai and Uber with autonomous taxis slated to deploy this year in Dallas. Although not as far along as Waymo, the trajectory is bullish. So factoring in the growth trajectory, within the next 12 months it is quite possible these subsidiaries will have an aggregate value approaching 10B. That would mean its core cloud business is currently trading at only 5X projected end-of-2025 ARR with a massive growth runway for 2026. The future looks very bullish for Nebius
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In a way this latest pullback for $NBIS has a psychological upside. The burden of expectation has shifted quite favorably now just a couple weeks away from earnings, with solid Q3 numbers and guidance no longer priced in. I like the setup.
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$NBIS and IREN each now with a massive Microsoft deal in place! NBIS: 300MW = 17.4-19.4B IREN: 200MW = 9.7B At a glance Nebius deal is nearly 2x the total revenue ($17.4B vs. $9.7B) for only 1.5x the capacity (NBIS 300 MW vs. IREN 200 MW), achieving $58M per MW over 5 years compared to IREN’s $48.5M per MW—a 20%+ premium per unit of power. This translates to $11.6M/MW/year revenue for Nebius versus $9.7M/MW/year revenue for IREN. That does not include the 2B expansion option for Nebius which adds a bit more scalable upside without renegotiation. But again I say ā€˜at a glance’ because there’s so much more to consider here to gauge each company’s net profit from the respective deals. Hoping for more specifics mainly from the Nebius team on the Q3 call and I suspect that DataOne CEO’s promised ā€œrevolutionaryā€ energy breakthrough related to Nebius’ 300MW data center may play a role in the final picture.
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Updated $NBIS bull catalyst list — āœ… After the last Goldman Sachs update, the Nebius average analyst price target is now $156.40 a share (this includes Goldman’s base case of $137). Goldman also issued a bull case price target of $283 a share! • Fed rate cuts more likely now through year end based on Powell’s comments yesterday. Highly bullish for tech growth stocks! •Announcement of two new Nebius greenfield sites (one site recently purchased in Birmingham, Alabama which already has a building in a state with 6GW excess power and very low power rates. Local company Alabama Power that handles Birmingham has the capability to handle a 150-300+MW DC) • London data center officially launches before end of this year! • New US data center announcement before end of this year • upcoming Nebius subsidiary Toloka bullish announcement hinted at by management a week ago • New major firm analyst coverage (still only FIVE institutions cover with potential coverage soon by major firms, possibly 3 that handled the recent bond sale/capital raise Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citi) • DataOne CEO Charles-Antoine Beyney announcement of new revolutionary tech development for the AI Infrastructure sector (end of this month) • Dan Ives issues price target / coverage • New Hyperscaler deal announcement! (Arkady mentioned Microsoft was one of a few they expect) • Avride funding deal announcement; last week it was reported that UK peer comp Wayve’s valuation has soared to 8 billion • December 2025 inclusion of Nebius in the Nasdaq 100 index. All requirements have to date been met. Grok estimates an 85% chance of inclusion end of this year. • ClickHouse IPO (within 6 months?) after CEO said last week they will now move toward IPO (Nebius owns 28% stake). Estimates of ClickHouse valuation continue to climb higher • Q3 call Nebius potentially raises ARR projection for end of 2025 again and gives an ARR projection for end of 2026 (w/ revenue from Microsoft deal favored in); Northland Securities estimates a potential 300% increase in ARR by end of 2026 up to 4B
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Worth considering this $NBIS thesis and price target of $403 by end of 2026
šŸ”„NEW $NBIS 2026 price target: $403 (+211%) Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I currently hold a highly concentrated long position in Nebius. This is my base case, not my bull case. Personally, I’m leaning a lot more bullish šŸ˜‰ Many questions will be answered if you read the full post to the end. Oh, and this post is not AI-generated, just FYI. Okay, let’s get started šŸ‘‡ 🧩 Sum-of-the-Parts for the subsidiaries: Fair to say we all underestimated the subsidiaries so far. First we thought they are a nice to have. Then we realized they are actually quite interesting. Now it's starting to become obvious Nebius owns multiple rocket ships. ClickHouse is leading the way, but Avride and Toloka are also incredibly interesting and have explosive potential. I will strictly focus the valution component here, but it's important to understand that Nebius can take debt against their stake in the subsidiaries to raise billions for capacity buildout. If interested in that topic, read my previous posts. • ClickHouse (25%) → $40 B IPO → $10 B stake • Avride (80%) → $10 B → $8 B stake • Toloka (65%) → $9 B → $5.85 B stake • TripleTen (100%) → $0.5 B → $0.5 B stake āž”ļø Subsidiary value end of 2026 ā‰ˆ $24.35 B Note: Ownership % is after expected dilution, and valuation is estimated for end of 2026, based on constant, high growth. ā˜ļø Core Business (AI Cloud) • Nebius reported $430 M ARR in Q2 2025 • I estimate active capacity back then was ā‰ˆ 52.5 MW → implies $8.2 M ARR per MW • Management said they target ā€œover 1 GW of secured capacity by end of 2026ā€ • I estimate around 500 MW will be active and monetizable āž”ļø That implies $4.1 B ARR by end of 2026 šŸ’° Gross Margins • Reported 71 % in Q2 2025 • I expect it to rise to 75–80 % by end of 2026 Why? Higher utilization, rising electricity costs offset by increased hardware and system efficiency, but most importantly a rapidly increasing shift toward highly profitable Managed Services (software) as a key part of Nebius’ revenue mix. āœ–ļø Valuation Multiple If we look across the industry and compare Nebius on quality of revenue, growth, margins, ROIC, and risk profile, I consistently see an ARR multiple range of 18–25Ɨ as realistic. I’ll assume an ARR multiple of 22Ɨ for now. It’s worth mentioning Nebius sits in the top 1 % of the industry for both growth and gross margins. Some people here on X don’t understand the business model well and will tell you that 22Ɨ ARR is crazy. It’s actually quite conservative in context. āž”ļø Core business = $4.1 B ARR Ɨ 22 = $90.2 B 🧮 Total Enterprise Value (end of 2026) Core $90.2 B + Subs $24.35 B = $114.55 B • Let's assume ā‰ˆ 12 % dilution āž”ļø effective per-share value ā‰ˆ $100.8 B equivalent šŸ’° Upside Market cap today ā‰ˆ $32.54 B End of 2026: $100.8 B → 3.1Ɨ upside (+211 %) šŸŽÆ Base-Case Target: $403 / share If Nebius multiples expand to 30–50Ɨ ARR, that would get into the overextended area, but I can see it happen (I mean uhm… Palantir šŸ‘€). That would imply: • 30Ɨ ARR → $550 / share • 50Ɨ ARR → $916 / share šŸ”„šŸ¤Æ The giga bull case: 600-700+ MW of active capacity, fully utilized with a hot market giving Nebius finally a hot multiple of 30+. That's how Nebius could literally get to $1'000 / share. I'm not guiding for this, but I do want to point out how easily this would be possible. Basically hot market (I think 50%+ chance) + execution excellence (I think also 50%+ chance) = crazy upside here. Just to repeat the assumptions and why this is so wild if you only look at the naked numbers: Nebius is scaling from 0 → $4 B ARR in ~2 years, while expanding margins and owning billion-dollar subsidiaries, in a multi-trillion-dollar market growing faster than any before. So let me just say it again: you’re not bullish enough šŸ˜‰ Nebius is the most asymmetric opportunity in the market right now. That's why I'm not scared of the risks, because frankly speaking: even if multiple worst case scenarios happen, I think the stock would still do fine, because it's that undervalued. I do however still want to share the risk I am monitoring āš ļø Key Risks I’m monitoring: • Multiple Founders and top executives are based in Tel Aviv. I do NOT want to get political, but I think it's safe to say that that's not the physically most safe place to be on the planet. I hope the current peace deal is going to happen, but as Trump once put it so eloquently "What if anything, what if a bomb drops on your head right now?" There are few regions in the world where that could literally happen. Tel Aviv is sadly one of them. I don't want to spread FUD, but I feel like in order to stay 100% transparent with everyone, I do want to mention this risk, it's the only Nebius risk that I actually care about. And yes, of course the business, customers, etc. are increasingly based in the US, but I think Arkady, Roman, etc. are super important (obviously, duh), so I hope they will always be safe. • Chip access: dependence on NVIDIA supply and relationships. • Power infrastructure: limited grid connections, permitting delays, or poor site access could cap build-out. • Energy costs: spikes in electricity that outpace chip efficiency could pressure margins. The opposite, innovation in power systems and NVIDIA’s energy efficiency, could become a huge tailwind. • Execution risk: scaling 10Ɨ capacity in under 2 years is operationally extreme. The team has long experience with NVIDIA and data-center builds, but physical challenges are always tough. • Macro/political shocks: mainly supply-chain disruptions in chips (China / Taiwan / TSMC etc.). That's it for now. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts! If you got some value from my post, please share it with your friends / investor group :)
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Wow!! $NBIS UK data center to open tomorrow! A blistering pace from announcement to opening! 4,000 Blackwells!!
It’s now official: $NBIS will open its data center in the UK tomorrow. šŸ‡¬šŸ‡§ CEO Arkady Volozh will be speaking at the Future of AI Summit in London, a conference the $NBIS team is attending. Source: Dr. Ilya Burkov The initial deployment is expected to include 4,000 NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPUs, marking one of the first installations of its kind in Europe.
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JP Morgan sees MORE upward revisions for Ai data center spending! The boom is just beginning… Bullish $NBIS šŸ”„ ā€œFrom a data center capex standpoint, we still see ample room for upside to spending in coming years, supporting a 40-50% CAGR for the AI accelerator [total addressable market], and a growing AI 'pie'... Based on where Street numbers have landed though, we anticipate a period of sustained positive revisions to AI revenue estimates as visibility improves and additional capacity deals are announced, which in turn we think will help to drive upward momentum for the stocks.ā€ seekingalpha.com/news/450592…
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$NBIS — Thought I’d share a bit more about Nebius CEO/Founder and visionary tech genius Arkady Volozh from my recent deep dive! ā€œI don’t follow trends. I wait for the right problem, then solve it completely.ā€ — Arkady Volozh (Kommersant, 2017) A few quotes about Arkady: ā€œHe imported the first PCs into the USSR, taught computers to understand Pushkin, and now teaches AI to think in 100 languages. Arkady Volozh is Russia’s quiet Leonardo.ā€ — Forbes Russia (2020 Profile) ā€œArkady is a grand chess master. He sees the whole board — 10 moves ahead, while the rest of us are still figuring out the opening.ā€ — Ilya Segalovich (Co-founder of Yandex) shared in DER SPIEGEL, 2024 ā€œArkady doesn’t just build search engines — he builds ecosystems. He thinks in layers: technology, culture, market, timing. That’s why Yandex became more than Google in Russia.ā€ — Esther Dyson, 2011 (Early Yandex Investor, legendary tech investor) ā€œVolozh turned Russian morphology into a competitive moat. While Google used brute force, he used elegance. That’s the difference between an engineer and a poet.ā€ — John Boynton (Former Yandex Board Member) 2019 podcast ā€œThe Russian Enigmaā€ ā€œArkady doesn’t code much anymore, but when he walks into a room, the algorithm gets smarter. He asks one question and suddenly the whole approach changes.ā€ —Anonymous Yandex Engineer recounted in ā€œOnce Upon a Time in Russiaā€ (Ben Mezrich, 2015)
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Just another example of when $NBIS was down over 20% from the high at that time. Now Nebius is down over 19% from last week’s high of $140. I have zero concerns here as fundamentals look excellent as we approach Q3 call. Not selling a share.
$NBIS now down over 21.5 percent from its high of around $56.50 !!
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First Principles Partners writing for Seeking Alpha today issued $NBIS a BUY rating, raising the Price Target to $176.30 a share. This translates to an upside potential of about 97%... seekingalpha.com/article/482…
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Bullish ClickHouse = Bullish $NBIS
$NBIS ClickHouse has acquired LibreChat, the leading open-source AI chat platform that provides a unified interface for interacting with multiple LLMs, giving users and organizations full control over their data, agents, and conversations. šŸ‘€ LibreChat will become a core component of ClickHouse's vision for Agent-Facing Analytics, forming the foundation of an open-source Agentic Data Stack. By combining LibreChat's agent framework with ClickHouse's analytical performance at scale, it's now easier than ever to build AI analytics agents capable of exposing massive datasets to agents operating on behalf of users. Example: Shopify Shopify is one of LibreChat's users. Leveraging the open-source platform, $SHOP built tools like an RFP assistant that pulls from company data, rates response confidence, and improves over time. ā€œLibreChat powers reflexive AI use across Shopify. With near-universal adoption and thousands of custom agents, teams use it to solve real problems, increase productivity, and keep quality high. By connecting 30+ internal MCP servers, it democratizes access to critical information across the company.ā€ — Matt Burnett, Senior Engineer at Shopify "Internally, we also use LibreChat for data analysis and it now handles ~70% of our data warehouse queries for 200+ users. The productivity boost has been remarkable." — Dmitry Pavlov, Director of Engineering, ClickHouse Why this matters: the Agentic Data Stack The Agentic Data Stack aims to dramatically reduce time to insight. Traditional analytics workflows often involve several handoffs between engineers, analysts, and business users, introducing latency that can take hours or days. With agentic analytics, that process collapses to seconds or minutes. A product manager can ask, ā€œWhat caused the spike in churn last week?ā€ and immediately receive not only the answer, but also the underlying queries, visualizations, and follow-up insights. ClickHouse's internal agent, Dwaine (Data Warehouse AI Natural Expert), demonstrates this potential. It allows internal teams to query business data in natural language, answering questions like ā€œWhat's our current revenue?ā€ or ā€œWhat issues are customers experiencing?ā€ almost instantly. Since launch, usage has skyrocketed from 15 million to 33 million LLM tokens per day, transforming how teams access insights and eliminating the bottleneck of hand-written SQL queries. With LibreChat’s agentic layer now part of ClickHouse, this vision expands beyond internal tools, bringing agentic analytics to organizations globally. What's next for LibreChat and ClickHouse users "What doesn't change: āœ“ LibreChat remains 100% open source (MIT license) āœ“ Community-first development continues āœ“ Your existing LibreChat deployments work exactly as before What gets better: āœ“ Enterprise-ready features for production agentic analytics workloads āœ“ Native LibreChat experience alongside ClickHouse Cloud instances āœ“ Extended data visualization support, enterprise-grade security and governance, and a tailored semantic layer"
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Uttam Dey writing for Seeking Alpha this morning gives $NBIS a DOUBLE UPGRADE to Strong Buy— ā€œMy estimates show NBIS can expect at least $2-2.6B in revenue this year from the Microsoft deal, with potential for further large contracts from other hyperscalers.ā€ ā€œValuation supports significant upside; I double-upgrade NBIS to Strong Buy, citing ARR growth, bullish sentiment, and potential new customer wins.ā€
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Out of five analysts currently covering Nebius, the new average $NBIS price target is $153 a share! Consensus average upside of 44% from current stock price • Northland Securities: $206 (September 24, 2025) • Arete Research: $184 (September 2025) • BWS Financial: $130 (September 2025) • Goldman Sachs: $120 (September 17, 2025) • DA Davidson: $125 (August 2025)
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Yiannis Zourmpanos rated $NBIS a STRONG BUY in his new piece ā€˜Nebius Pullback: The Smart Money Entry Point’ just published for Seeking Alpha. Here Yiannis makes two salient points about the recent pullback and future trajectory of the company: 1. Over the last few days while retail were panic-selling $NBIS for no reason related to fundamentals, institutions were quietly accumulating shares. ā€œTotal open call contracts are higher above 420,000, while the bear puts contracted at 253,000, an indication those are unmistakably institutional confidence and not speculationā€ and ā€œWhalestream reports that approximately $100 million of net inflows were concentrated within the $103.90 area, indicating fresh institutional interest. This was confirmed by Fintel data (extracted from Nasdaq, FINRA, and Capital IQ), which records the off-exchange short-volume ratio near 19%, and reinforces the thesis of significant Nebius buying through dark pools by the institutions. In practice, this supports the view that much of the Nebius buying is happening quietly through dark pools, as aligned with the observed build-up of call options.ā€ 2. Nebius is emerging as a foundational player in the next phase of global AI expansion via its sovereign-compliant design. ā€œThe launch of Nebius AI Cloud 3.0 ā€œAetherā€ marks its shift from GPU leasing to full-stack orchestration with enterprise-grade security and governanceā€ and ā€œNebius’ sovereign-compliant design positions it well to benefit from coming regulatory changes. More than 45 nations are projected to implement sovereignty-based data restrictions by late 2025 or early 2026, representing an estimated $8.2 billion in addressable opportunity by 2030. Unlike hyperscalers that must retrofit compliance across sprawling global systems, Nebius was purpose-built for sovereignty from day one.ā€ seekingalpha.com/article/483…
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Bay Area Ideas writing for Seeking Alpha reiterates a BUY for $NBIS — ā€œNebius' fundamentals have gone from strong to extraordinary, with explosive revenue growth and ambitious expansion plans driving robust long-term prospects.ā€
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$NBIS has just guided for increasing ARR from 1 billion end of next month to 8 billion by end of 2026. This guidance represents 700% growth YoY and would be quite simply unheard of at this scale. Per Grok — ā€œa 700% YoY from $1B → $8B is unprecedented in public market history.ā€
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Five recent bullish updates/market factors to consider related to $NBIS 1. Strategic Partnership with Accenture for Sovereign AI Expansion to build a sovereign AI cloud tailored for enterprises and governments. Accenture contributes its distribution networks and compliance expertise, while Nebius supplies the critical GPU hardware and software backbone. • Bullish Implication: This marks an expansion toward more enterprise-grade AI services, unlocking access to hundreds more clients within the global Fortune 1000 and possible government contracts. 2. Equinix’s ($EQIX) Q3 report highlighted Nebius as a key AI client alongside high-profile names like Groq and Bristol Myers Squibb. Nebius already operates in Equinix’s PA10 Paris data center and is actively expanding. • Bullish Implication: Positions Nebius for more European growth. 3. Macro Tailwinds from AI CapEx Boom, Fed Chair Powell comments and rate cuts • Bullish Implication: Microsoft and Meta reported record CapEx surges (>80% YoY) focused on AI data centers, validating explosive demand for GPU capacity and increased Ai infra spending. Fed Chair Powell directly denied a dot-com era bubble related to Ai infrastructure buildout, citing fundamental metrics including revenue growth in the course of announcing another rate cut. 4. Deepening NVIDIA Ecosystem Ties with Nebius integrated NVIDIA’s Nemotron Nano 2 VL models into its AI Studio, enhancing its developer platform and full-stack AI offerings. • Bullish Implication: Strengthens alignment with NVIDIA’s framework, attracting more developers and independent software vendors. This integration bolsters Nebius’s competitive moat in AI model deployment and will entail higher margins (70-80%) 5. U.S. Enterprise Sales Ramp-Up as Shane Zide, Nebius’s VP of Sales, revealed plans to build a ā€œworld-classā€ U.S. enterprise sales team by hiring 7-8 seasoned Account Executives over the next few quarters. Targets include AI frontier labs, innovative software ISVs, and NVIDIA-aligned Fortune 1000 verticals (e.g., large-scale software and cloud deals). • Bullish Implication: Indicates aggressive go-to-market execution and confidence in capacity expansion, a ā€œmajor accelerationā€ signal...
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$NBIS guidance has blown away my expectations! Guidance end of 2026: 2.5GW secured and 7-9B ARR This is a once in a generation company. Literally no company in history of the stock market has ever grown 1BARR to 8B ARR in one year.
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$NBIS buyers after hours today
$NBIS seeing some after-hours 🐳 actionšŸ‘€ šŸ‘€ At 4:20 pm some 🐳 picked up $11.4M worth of $NBIS shares šŸ‘€
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Retail has taken the street to the woodshed on Nebius. And now the best retail minds I know on X have updated valuations on $NBIS w/Microsoft deal in place and nobody is selling. We know what we have now and it’s a goddamn beautiful setup.
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$NBIS — Bezos has already invested in Nebius subsidiary Toloka. With AWS planning to quadruple its data center capacity, would a hyperscaler deal (like the Microsoft deal) benefit both Amazon and Nebius?
According to BloombergNEF, AWS is planning to nearly quadruple its current 3GW+ capacity to more than 12GW. $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT $META
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Right before close today order blocks for 155M worth of $NBIS shares…
$NBIS 🐳🚨 🚨 Massive triple order block on $NBIS heading into the closing bell today. All 3 order blocks printed at the same price and all were well over the current time frame bid/ask prices. 🚨 These 3 blocks combine for $155.4M worth of shares.
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Bullish for $NBIS via their ClickHouse stake
JUST IN: Anthropic is projecting $20–26B in ARR by 2026, up from an expected $9B at the end of this year. 🤯 Friendly reminder: Anthropic runs its observability data on ClickHouse, billed on a usage-based model. Long $NBIS. With major customers like Anthropic, OpenAI, Tesla, Meta, and other AI leaders, it's no surprise ClickHouse has quadrupled its ARR over the past 12 months.
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Worth reading—Nebius vs. Noise Teufel made $NBIS almost ā€œ50% of my portfolio and bringing my cost basis up to ~$89, comfortably buying as high as $120...AI bubble narrative in the media has felt like a gift for me to form conviction and accumulateā€¦ā€ matthewteufel.substack.com/p…
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I am also all-in $NBIS and unable to find a more compelling thesis. I also do not recommend everyone do this as I happen to have an extraordinary appetite for risk
I would LOVE to not be 100% in $NBIS. Being in 1 stock makes you look and feel like a monkey gambler. Here's my problem: I want to invest in hypergrowth companies with highly profitable business models, recurring predictable revenues, strong moats, and highly aligned S-tier leadership. Being aware of the situation we're in, that very clearly means investing in a company that is vertically integrated and essentially correlates with inference growth over the next decade, but outperforms peers with world-class execution and product obsession. I've looked at so many companies, but the only "inference provider" play that is public and meets all those requirements right now is Nebius. There's not a single other company that I could research and afterwards see as even comparable to $NBIS. Many other data center providers currently trade at comparable numbers and people do weird stuff like compare who has how much contracted power. As if stock price is a result of purely contracted power. I think stock price is a result of market + team. The market (in this case inference growth) is essentially defining the possibilities, but the team will then build the product, which will create good or bad numbers, which lead to an increasing or decreasing stock price. Comparing stocks purely on metrics like P/S, EBIT multiples or other external valuations completely misses the fact that the underlying quality can lead to a 1'000x+ difference in results. To me it feels like comparing 1 ton of poop with 1 ton of gold and saying they are both 1 ton, so should have the same value. Wrong metric. But it doesn't stop with me seeing Nebius as the clearest winner in the space, it's the combination with the fact that almost all AI-related companies are already super expensive, while I still see Nebius as ridiculously underpriced and growing many hundreds of % over the next few years. So long story short: I would LOVE to diversify. Usually, I have max 20%, rarely 30-50% in one position. But comparing my opportunities, I just can't sell a stock I think will for sure multiply 3–5x in not too much time for stocks that I think could double, but with multiple significantly higher risks.
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$NBIS More institutional buys… Rovida 13F reveals adding 453k MORE shares, increasing their position by 26% and now holding over 2M shares
🚨JUST IN: $NBIS ROVIDA Investment has released 13F adding NEBIUS again with 453K (+26.2%). Total 2.19M āœ… shares or $246.19M Top #12 Inst 🐳🐳 Rest of Top 10 will release today & tomorrow
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I’ve heard some misinformed talk that the Open Ai deal with AMD is somehow bearish for $NBIS because Nebius uses Nvidia hardware, not AMD. First of all Open Ai deal with Nvidia dwarfs their deal with AMD in both scale (10 GW vs. 6 GW) and financial commitment ($100 billion investment vs. tens of billions in expected revenue for AMD). But even if that were not the case, Nebius has no contractual exclusivity with Nvidia. If AMD open source architecture proves to be strategically valuable, Nebius could eventually or gradually integrate it as they see fit or just use the threat of integrating it to negotiate even better prices with Nvidia or priority access to new Nvidia architecture. The Open Ai deals with Nvidia and AMD are both bullish for Nebius and AI infrastructure in general
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