š„NEW
$NBIS 2026 price target: $403 (+211%)
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I currently hold a highly concentrated long position in Nebius. This is my base case, not my bull case. Personally, Iām leaning a lot more bullish š Many questions will be answered if you read the full post to the end. Oh, and this post is not AI-generated, just FYI.
Okay, letās get started š
š§© Sum-of-the-Parts for the subsidiaries:
Fair to say we all underestimated the subsidiaries so far. First we thought they are a nice to have. Then we realized they are actually quite interesting. Now it's starting to become obvious Nebius owns multiple rocket ships. ClickHouse is leading the way, but Avride and Toloka are also incredibly interesting and have explosive potential. I will strictly focus the valution component here, but it's important to understand that Nebius can take debt against their stake in the subsidiaries to raise billions for capacity buildout. If interested in that topic, read my previous posts.
⢠ClickHouse (25%) ā $40 B IPO ā $10 B stake
⢠Avride (80%) ā $10 B ā $8 B stake
⢠Toloka (65%) ā $9 B ā $5.85 B stake
⢠TripleTen (100%) ā $0.5 B ā $0.5 B stake
ā”ļø Subsidiary value end of 2026 ā $24.35 B
Note: Ownership % is after expected dilution, and valuation is estimated for end of 2026, based on constant, high growth.
āļø Core Business (AI Cloud)
⢠Nebius reported $430 M ARR in Q2 2025
⢠I estimate active capacity back then was ā 52.5 MW ā implies $8.2 M ARR per MW
⢠Management said they target āover 1 GW of secured capacity by end of 2026ā
⢠I estimate around 500 MW will be active and monetizable
ā”ļø That implies $4.1 B ARR by end of 2026
š° Gross Margins
⢠Reported 71 % in Q2 2025
⢠I expect it to rise to 75ā80 % by end of 2026 Why? Higher utilization, rising electricity costs offset by increased hardware and system efficiency, but most importantly a rapidly increasing shift toward highly profitable Managed Services (software) as a key part of Nebiusā revenue mix.
āļø Valuation Multiple
If we look across the industry and compare Nebius on quality of revenue, growth, margins, ROIC, and risk profile, I consistently see an ARR multiple range of 18ā25Ć as realistic. Iāll assume an ARR multiple of 22Ć for now. Itās worth mentioning Nebius sits in the top 1 % of the industry for both growth and gross margins. Some people here on X donāt understand the business model well and will tell you that 22Ć ARR is crazy. Itās actually quite conservative in context.
ā”ļø Core business = $4.1 B ARR Ć 22 = $90.2 B
š§® Total Enterprise Value (end of 2026)
Core $90.2 B + Subs $24.35 B = $114.55 B
⢠Let's assume ā 12 % dilution
ā”ļø effective per-share value ā $100.8 B equivalent
š° Upside
Market cap today ā $32.54 B
End of 2026: $100.8 B ā 3.1Ć upside (+211 %)
šÆ Base-Case Target: $403 / share
If Nebius multiples expand to 30ā50Ć ARR, that would get into the overextended area, but I can see it happen (I mean uhm⦠Palantir š).
That would imply:
⢠30Ć ARR ā $550 / share
⢠50Ć ARR ā $916 / share š„š¤Æ
The giga bull case: 600-700+ MW of active capacity, fully utilized with a hot market giving Nebius finally a hot multiple of 30+. That's how Nebius could literally get to
$1'000 / share. I'm not guiding for this, but I do want to point out how easily this would be possible. Basically hot market (I think 50%+ chance) + execution excellence (I think also 50%+ chance) = crazy upside here.
Just to repeat the assumptions and why this is so wild if you only look at the naked numbers: Nebius is scaling from 0 ā $4 B ARR in ~2 years, while expanding margins and owning billion-dollar subsidiaries, in a multi-trillion-dollar market growing faster than any before.
So let me just say it again: youāre not bullish enough š
Nebius is the most asymmetric opportunity in the market right now. That's why I'm not scared of the risks, because frankly speaking: even if multiple worst case scenarios happen, I think the stock would still do fine, because it's that undervalued. I do however still want to share the risk I am monitoring
ā ļø Key Risks Iām monitoring:
⢠Multiple Founders and top executives are based in Tel Aviv. I do NOT want to get political, but I think it's safe to say that that's not the physically most safe place to be on the planet. I hope the current peace deal is going to happen, but as Trump once put it so eloquently "What if anything, what if a bomb drops on your head right now?" There are few regions in the world where that could literally happen. Tel Aviv is sadly one of them. I don't want to spread FUD, but I feel like in order to stay 100% transparent with everyone, I do want to mention this risk, it's the only Nebius risk that I actually care about. And yes, of course the business, customers, etc. are increasingly based in the US, but I think Arkady, Roman, etc. are super important (obviously, duh), so I hope they will always be safe.
⢠Chip access: dependence on NVIDIA supply and relationships.
⢠Power infrastructure: limited grid connections, permitting delays, or poor site access could cap build-out.
⢠Energy costs: spikes in electricity that outpace chip efficiency could pressure margins. The opposite, innovation in power systems and NVIDIAās energy efficiency, could become a huge tailwind.
⢠Execution risk: scaling 10à capacity in under 2 years is operationally extreme. The team has long experience with NVIDIA and data-center builds, but physical challenges are always tough.
⢠Macro/political shocks: mainly supply-chain disruptions in chips (China / Taiwan / TSMC etc.). That's it for now.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts! If you got some value from my post, please share it with your friends / investor group :)