Dem from CT | Progressive and Social Democrat | I wish I didn't get 2024 right.
Connecticut
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November 1st (2nd) Prediction.
My last prediction, I don't have much changing from October, I just don't see Dems doing well this election.
If I'm wrong you can make fun of this post but this is what I genuinely believe the election is at.
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I wonder what is happening right now in the timeline where the Selzer poll was right
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Stop saying Democrats have a guaranteed 2026 blue wave.
This election has shown that there is something deeply wrong within the Democratic Party, and if nothing changes from here, then I don't see any reason why 2026 will be any different from 2024.
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I made a nationwide map of all districts having the same population as the smallest populated U.S. territory (47.3k) making 7,080 districts total including U.S. territories. If you want me to zoom in on a specific state or region put it in the replies.
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When fair districts are drawn the US House should have an approximate partisan breakdown of:
🟦295 Democrats
- 210 SAFE DEM
- 53 LIKELY DEM
- 24 LEAN DEM
- 8 TILT DEM
🟥140 Republicans
- 132 SAFE GOP
- 0 LIKELY GOP
- 6 LEAN GOP
- 2 TILT GOP
When fair districts are drawn the US House should have an approximate partisan breakdown of:
🟥 299 Republicans
- 116 SAFE GOP
- 148 LIKELY GOP
- 30 LEAN GOP
- 5 TILT GOP
🟦 136 Democrats
- 117 SAFE DEM
- 15 LIKELY DEM
- 3 LEAN DEM
- 1 TILT DEM
Large metro areas below 1/16🧵
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Map of the SAVE Act vote today. There is no good reason for any Democrat to vote for this, but four did
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The Democrats have a shot to win EVERY seat up in 2026 *if* they get their top recruits. This could very well happen.
ME - Mills
WV - Manchin
KY - Beshear
OH - Brown
IA - Sand
KS - Kelly
NE - Pansing Brooks
SD - Herseth Sandlin
WY - Cheney
MT - Tester
ID - Minnick
AK - Peltola
The GOP has a shot to win EVERY seat up in 2026 *if* they get their top recruits. This could very well happen.
GA - Kemp
MI - Rogers
NH - Brown
MN - Coleman
VA - Youngkin
NM - Martinez
IL - Kirk
OR - Smith
CO - Gardner
DE - Castle
NJ - Ciattarelii
MA - Baker
RI - Fung
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Get rid of the jungle primary system in California, there is a possibility we get locked out of CA-31, a Biden +31 seat
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i tried making an ai generated image of meatball ron at a pride parade and this is what i got
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August 1st Prediction
Harris has some momentum, but I think much of it will die out after the convention, Trump likely still wins the popular vote, Harris will need a lot to go in her favor to win.
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Tim Walz is not boring like Tim Kaine was. Have you not heard him speak or seen him do anything?
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I genuinely don't get why more people aren't terrified about the election, we are heading for a massive loss
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What has Walz done that is so bad? Feeding children? LGBT protections? Legalizing weed?
There's no reason to call yourself a Democrat if you're not gonna support the Democratic nominee over their VP. There are VP choices I think are bad, but I would never change my vote over it
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I wonder what is happening right now in the timeline where the GOP did well enough for Mark Robinson to win
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If you were given just this election result, how would you assume the rest of 2024 went?
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I think the Osborn strategy was one of the best things we did this cycle. Running independents in deep red states seems to be effective at narrowing margins (KS 14, UT 22, NE 24) & scaring incumbents.
We haven't seen one of these candidates in a blue wave yet, I think...
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Democrats shouldn't win her reelection again
Lisa Murkowski says it was ‘agonizing’ to vote for the megabill ow.ly/TkHf106es6x
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I finally finished it, a 5000 seat map (about 66k per seat) for the House, if you want to see a zoom in of a specific region put it in the replies, and DM me on discord if you want the shapefile for it
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Reminder
I am running for President as a Democrat in 2024.
My campaign will be about four main things.
First and foremost, it will be about the economy. We have to make life more affordable for the middle class, which is the issue that voters care about most. We need to bring down the cost of living and make life affordable again.
As part of making life more affordable, we have to celebrate success. America should be the most prosperous country in the world, and we need to be both pro-business and pro-worker to get there.
Second, it will be about safety. If people don’t feel safe in their communities, not much else matters. We have a drug crisis and a mental health crisis in this country; it’s taking a horrible toll on individual as well as their communities. We have to address it.
Third, my campaign will be about the generational change the country wants and policies that invest in our future, our young people.
And finally, it will be about listening to each other to get back to a less divisive political environment. There’s government reform that will help with this too—we need term limits, campaign finance reform, and things like bipartisan cabinets.
I promised my daughters when Trump won in 2016 that I’d stand up and do something about it, so I ran for Congress and am now on my third term.
I didn’t set out to enter this race. But it looks like on our current course, the Democrats will lose and Trump will be our President again. President Biden is a good man and someone I tremendously respect. I understand why other Democrats don’t want to run against him, and why we are here. This is a last-minute campaign, but desperate times call for desperate measures, and courage is an important value to me.
If President Biden is the Democratic nominee, we face an unacceptable risk of Trump being back in the White House. I know this campaign is a long shot, but that is why I think it is important and worth doing.
As I’ve been listening to voters the past few weeks, I’ve been really heartened by the support, and believe we can win both this primary and general election.
People know in their hearts that it’s time for a change. We can do this together. Everyone's Invited!
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He's very pro-McCarthy to the point that he tried to get McCarthy back as the Speaker nominee after he was ousted, so he probably hates Matt Gaetz at a personal level
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With how these races have been going, with this and MD-3, I think its quite solid that Bowman and Bush lose and I think Omar loses as well
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I put 2024 presidential numbers on the map. If you want me to zoom in on a specific state or region put it in the replies.
I made a nationwide map of all districts having the same population as the smallest populated U.S. territory (47.3k) making 7,080 districts total including U.S. territories. If you want me to zoom in on a specific state or region put it in the replies.
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The State of the Union speech was 100% a disaster for Dems and without serious reform to messaging idk if a counterargument can/will be made against the GOP going into the midterms
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I shifted the 2022 House elections to make Democratic seats swing to the right by enough to make Dean Phillips lose and Republican seats swing to the left by enough to make Tom Emmer lose
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I think a lot of people are underestimating JD Vance for 2028. As much as I don't like it, he is popular and well-liked and I don't think he's as weak of a candidate as people say he is.
If Vance is the nominee in 2028, without a great recession-tier crisis, I think he's favored
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none of the districts outside southern texas were even remotely competitive in 2020
We have our first redistricting submission to the Texas portal, from Andrew Dugan of @Gallup: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congre…
#txlege
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This kind of idea of "were guaranteed to win" will probably contribute to a loss. We are not favored right now and we have to act like it.
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There are still six members of Congress who voted against Armenian Genocide recognition
Jim Baird (IN-4)
Greg Pence (IN-6)
Larry Buschon (IN-8)
Andy Harris (MD-1)
Virginia Foxx (NC-5)
Tom Cole (OK-4)
These members of Congress need to be out as soon as possible
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He would just become a new Sinema/Manchin. I'd rather run someone who will actually vote with Democrats
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Yeah were fucked for Senate
News: NRSC Chair Tim Scott already recruiting Georgia Gov. Kemp to run against Dem Sen. Ossoff next year. They met this month
Scott: “We are looking for a way to make our Number One recruit a senator ... he would be the best candidate in Georgia we’ve had for a very long time"
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July 1st Prediction
At this point, if the election was held today, I don't think a Biden victory is in the range of possibilities. It'll be between a slight Trump victory to a Trump landslide.
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I made maps of who signed on and didn't sign on to this letter
Today, I sent a letter with nearly 200 colleagues in the Senate & House with a simple message: All workers, including UPS Teamsters, deserve fair wages, safe conditions, and decent benefits. If a bargaining agreement can't be reached, we will not intervene if UPS workers strike.
ALT Image of letter sent to Teamsters President O’Brein and UPS CEO Tomé.
ALT Image of letter sent to Teamsters President O’Brein and UPS CEO Tomé.
ALT Image of letter sent to Teamsters President O’Brein and UPS CEO Tomé.
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