Some thoughts on Trump’s Gaza relocation plan:
1. The main effect of the plan is to block Gaza reconstruction until further notice. It doesn’t matter if relocation happens or not. As long as it’s the official US position, no one will rebuild Gaza against US wishes. No one will pour money into Gaza knowing Israel could bomb everything tomorrow, with US backing.
2. For Hamas this is a huge problem. It has no real answer. Hamas has no way of rebuilding Gaza on its own, it needs outside help. Without it, Gaza will remain a disaster zone and local residents will increasingly become angry. Gazans hate Israel, but they’re also learning to hate Hamas.
3. Hamas has very few options. Yes, it can decide to end the hostage deal or renew attacks, but this will trigger renewed IDF action on a large scale. More of Gaza will be destroyed, more Hamas assets lost, more local anger, and still no way to start rebuilding.
4. As time passes, Trump will likely convince at least some countries to take in some Gazans. Even if not in large numbers, a growing trickle of Palestinians leaving Gaza will put further pressure on Hamas. Time will no longer be on their side.
4. In essence, Trump is shattering the traditional Gaza reconstruction model. He's also reinforcing his plan with extra moves, like defunding UNRWA. This was always a key weapon for Hamas, the knowledge that as long as they survive the war, foreign money will rebuild Gaza and all will be back to normal. No more.
5. Bottom line: Trump will try to advance the Gaza relocation plan, but is also open to other options. As long as he doesn’t get an offer he likes, Gaza is stuck. That’s not a bad tactic.
6. In the bigger picture, sooner or later some relocation from Gaza will happen. The idea is out there, many Gaza residents want to leave, and they will find ways to do it. In any case, Hamas and Gaza will not be the same.