Why is @0xSteadyLads the crypto podcast with the most rabid following this cycle? Watch the short clip below to get a taste of the fun we have- and latest full episode is below 👇 All Steady Lads enjoyoors- RT/QT to show some 🩷 for our "small audience show"..!

Today is a very emotional day for me. Its not about poker or money. Its about my 15 year journey of fighting inner demons and overcoming them to achieve my personal growth. I grew up with a lot of cognitive blocks- insecurities, impostor syndroms, noone to teach me how to structure my life and tap into to my talents. Every year ive inched closer to getting to a place where Im happy with where I am, and every summer Ive been coming to the WSOP to put myself to the test and see if I can keep it together and achieve one of my childhood dreams. Today was the day it all came together. I was fearless all event, even sitting next to Phil Ivey most of the day. Zoned in, no breakdowns or tilt when I got outdrawn on a hand. Just bringing out my best performance, and on this day it was enough. Hugs to you all for far and wide for all your messages of support and love. 💜

They don’t know that within 90 days the fiat system is gonna collapse and $BTC will go to $1million..

Starting a mega-🧵 on life alpha. Insights that appear when my subconscious is lit up (eg shower thoughts, traveling) will be added periodically as they manifest. My goal is to collect the ingredients for making great life decisions, & you are welcome to join for the ride 🚀

Everyone selling UST at 60c and 70c on the dollar is actually just helping it re-peg by reducing the asset-liability mismatch. The game theory is complex and fascinating. And as usual, the ones who lose out from this are those who don't understand what game they are playing.

Only funny thing I see here is that I accepted to give some of my scarce time to q+a for you company’s discord “alpha” members for free- and your repayment is to try to get attention for your shitty product by.. what even is this? Trying to make fun of peoples losses or implying something about me speaking about it? Have some class.

0/ ⚡️💡⚡️💡⚡️ A thread on the Game Theory of the Crypto universe! My most important piece to date for the crypto community: How $BTC Dominance is the gravitational force causing the tidal nature of crypto cycles. or "A Tragedy of the Crypto Commons, and how WAGMI despite it."

1/ I'm not a reg. financial advisor. For that you take a Series65 Exam, fill registration forms, and prove $10k in assets. Then make $85k advising ppl to split $ btw stock ETFs and gvt bonds (by counting years to retirement). Cool story bro. Here's the real stuff for free 👇

Shorting is a dark art- suitable only for the most elite of trading wizards. You pay ongoing borrow costs in a war of attrition, for limited upside, all whilst taking on risk of liquidation- no matter how big your bankroll is! The game theory lens is particularly interesting 🧵

Feel like some haven’t understood it yet so I’ll just spell it out- 1. Stop asking wen Alt season- alt seasons as you know them are no more. Just occasional dumb pockets of liquidity— like when the noob gets his monthly paycheck and goes to the casino or poker room to gamble against the odds and eventually lose it. 2. The 4 year btc cycle is also no more. Inflation halvings dont matter under 1% emissions as now, and macro cycles have been repressed by the US money printing. We will just get more random and unpredictable choppiness now. 3. The retarded ‘L1 premium’ is no more. It finally got saturated with all the chains. You want premium, go build smth that actually innovates and can get to sustainable revenue. Clear enough? Adapt or get chopped up. No pressure— just your whole future bloodline depending on you getting this right.

Lot of crypto folks asking me "What happened?"... It's probably time to dust off the Taleb book 'Antifragile'. The amount of Open Interest that has been taken off in one day is unreal. 15B -> 6B on hyperliquid alone, the real total number must be insane! People always want a clear simple headline. FTX, Luna, Celsius, we've had plenty smoking gun collapses in the past so makes sense to look. But most likely this is more like the liquidation cascade of May 2021 where after months of run-up and low volatility, people start taking more and more risk as they chase more money. Especially in this macro environment where gold is at $4k, stocks break all time high every day, and even if you are up you don't know if you are up relative to others when the denominator USD is rekt. In recent months I've been hearing more and more retarded theses for buying coins. Did you know that CZ's gardener dog is called $ASTERIX? Time to bet on that shit, its BSC season. Solana trenchers used to flipping shitcoins on their mobile phantom trying to tell me why this or that shitty perp dex is worth billions. Zero self-awareness of knowing what their game is and what it isnt. Add to that people chasing perps as a narrative, while the liquidity isnt there to support. Hidden risks everywhere, where people are using synthetic dollars as collateral, trading premarket perps with no funding external reference, and telling you not to cry in the casino like they are some hotshot from a Joe Pesci mob movie. Reality is, in recent months as we were awash with liquidity and every launch was faced with a huge hot ball of money, a lot of the fragility was being hidden under it. Too much FOMO from retail, not enough focus on robustness from founders seeing their token price as the school report card instead of thinking about their product being more resilient to shocks. I get it, if you dont play the hype game in crypto you die anyway. If you dont fomo sometimes you miss the big trades. Its a fine balance and none of us are perfect at finding it. And maybe there are some timeless lessons from that cranky boomer that can at least explain why this happened.

In retrospect, China forcing local miners and crypto whales to dump most of their $BTC to western buyers at fire-sale prices in mid-2021 will come to be seen as perhaps the largest intercontinental wealth transfer in human history.

Pro tip: If a token's website has a header page titled "SCAM" - maybe its a scam.

Today the journey begins. We set the stage for a first Principles framework, guided by the Three Laws of Thermo-Ponzinomics. Join me, as we set off on a hitchhike across the Ponziverse, in "Of Smoke and Mirrors, Part 1". medium.com/@game_theorizing/…

1/ "𝘈 𝘛𝘰𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘌𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘱𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘛𝘩𝘦 Luna" 🌖 What game was Terra trying to play? Where did the deadly asset-liability mismatch really come from? (Hint: Not Anchor)

 Was $LUNA simply destined to fail? Mega-🧵..

They say 5x a year theres free money on the floor to pick up, but noone really says it clearly when its one of those situations-- IMO, one of the times is right now. The risk/reward on buying $BTC here in the low 80s with a 6-month horizon is excellent. It doesn't really matter what you think about these Tariffs. What is undeniable is that the dollar is being weakened, and its reserve currency status diminished. This is a double whammy for BTC strength- not only is the denominator of the BTC/USD pair a tailwind now, but the need and global demand for 'reserve currency instruments' increases. Add to this the power of reflexivity after $BTC already has passed a big test this week by holding up well, and the signs that the supply squeeze might already be under way given the lack of dumping here, and it just seems like a promising spot. Maybe its not quite the bottom, but waiting for lower entries sometimes misses the boat. I'm already allocating close to 1/2 of my max size here and will look for spots to allocate remaining dry powder soon.

I keep seeing the take from influencoors that the 20% yield was unsustainable and thats why LUNA crashed. No frens.. Noone has explained the game properly yet. This weekend I’m gonna write it up, at all costs. Its too important.

"Oh no!!", the influencas cried out. "CZ was counter-trading us! 💔💔" Chillax fat man. So Binance had some affiliated entities trading on the exchange. Do you wanna see how deep the Rabbit Hole really goes? Let's talk about CEX. 1..2..3..4 things to keep in mind. No cap.

Every road I try to follow leads to the same place- Its almost inevitable: USD is too strong. Economy is headed for a downturn. Need to ease- but can't because of inflation. Solution: Tons of USD printing, but only through soft UBI and handouts for the lower class. Heres why:

0/ Decided to give a bit of trading alpha leak to followers- Not to completely bash Technical Analysis- charts do have some signal in them. But there's also a ton of noise, and 95% of chartists are akin to astrologists. A much better way is to just go straight to the source

1/ A 🧵 on the game theory of $LOOKS .. I get asked very often in DMs, "ser is such and such a ponzi?" I've gone through a ton of projects mechanics, plenty of scammy things out there, but also a lot of creative stuff going on.

I have found that one becomes much happier in general, and a much better trader/investor, once you make complete peace with this simple fact- The world isn't "fair". The people making the most money are not always the most virtuous- often the opposite. Crypto doesn't change this, it just accelerates it compared to the trad world. The worst projects often pump the hardest. Their insiders will cash out $100s of millions because they happen to find themselves in the center of a gambling tsunami- either by sheer chance/luck-- or in the case of some projects and memecoins, by design. Those who learn the playbook early gather resources and can afford to do it again and again, milking the market while everyone else is a headless chicken seeing the gains being made and trying to put out a bucket to capture some of the raindrops. Point of this post is not to incite a moral reaction. There is no good or evil. There is simply the game theory equilibrium. The natural order of how group incentives merge together. Best to observe and learn without using judgements as a crutch for our ego on this simple reality. I speak to lots of participants who see the absurd riches being made by those of questionable morals and they will say 'yes xyz is making bank but they will end up in jail' or 'they will gamble it all back'. Maybe that happens maybe it doesn't. What I know is this- Bad decisions get made when hoping for things being a certain 'fair' way and betting on that outcome. It simply is not how it works on average. Plus the mental cope drains energy that can be used on productive thoughts. There is power in silencing our ego's reaction to the 'unfair' things we witness in this space. We observe simply what is, and we position ourselves for reality without bias 💨

Figs arent what they used to be, even 5-10 years ago these days- $100k= dont feel rich $1m = '7 fig hell' $10m+ = unsettled.. the notional loss you take every year from fiat dilution is so high, if you take your foot off the gas even a bit on earning you don't even tread water Saylor been putting in the work for many of these BTC whales in recent years and they can free-ride. For the old money thats been listening to their old bankers and sitting in diversified 'safe' bonds in recent years.. they have to watch out for the rising water level. This is not just an ad for Bitcoin. Society will have to figure out something soon because these trends are about to hyperaccelerate..

Haven't expressed Macro views in a while- but as things are about to really start moving- its time. I spent months analyzing the endgame of U.S. policy. The outcome I saw is now coming into view- Gradually at first.. then all at once, the Fed will poo-poo in their pampers. 🧵

Fiat currency is fast approaching a full-on crisis. Post 2021, inflation got so acute that it finally broke mainstream consciousness- but the fiat game has been rigged for decades. Like c̶o̶b̶i̶e̶ Sauron, it was laying low, building its power before launching its onslaught..

I Want to get out the way all the "Entry, target, ticker pls" people before I start posting the article series about the macro currents shifting under us. So here you go- tldr; March 2020. We are in the middle of a margin flush, that will require intervention. get remaining bullets ready but don't need to deploy until we get intervention. Bitcoin will be fastest horse once the race really starts Gold will be slow and steady, Stocks choppy but it will have strong bounces if can time them. Bonds will rip hard if we get an intervention but otherwise are still a broken asset class. Cash is king right now but will be trash again after printing presses get hot. ================ The closest analogy here is March 2020 when the market suddenly all at once realized Covid was forreal after weeks of ignoring it. We get the liquidity squeeze first as margin calls break down everywhere and panic spreads and people move to cash. This has been a rolling squeeze instead of a one-day one, and is currently at the stage of hitting the long end treasury market. This means we are near the point of aggressive intervention by Central Banks around the world. There is no fucking around with long end bonds- reminder of when a single day of 30-year gilts brought down the UK government as effortlessly as a Federer forehand. What form of easing this takes is unclear. Rates decreases are generally ineffective here, I think some form of QE in the bonds, and Trump will try to push tax cuts as a two-punch. In Asia I expect direct equity support and more money printing. Exact form of easing matters less than the fact that we will end up back in money printing. The one thing that matters is timing, and its very hard to time: There are two approaches one can take- buy early to make sure not to miss the entry and wait out, or wait for the flush to play out. If you have a weak heart for seeing red PNL then just wait until they step in. You will miss the initial V-reaction but can ride the remaining move up. Personally im doing half and half. OK now that this is out of the way, we can focus on examining whats happening next..

Don't know who out there needs to read this 🧵today. Being under immense stress for too long can literally kill you from within, wrecking the body. My personal story of how chronic stress almost cost me my life- Plus 3 effective tips on how to become more antifragile to it..

A tip for my fellow traders spending these next 24h in front of their screen: Remember how these events play out from a liquidity rotation perspective- Once the smart money get a strong read on the binary outcome, the most LIQUID things get hit first, even if they arent the most strongly correlated. In this election it will be $BTC first. Because if you want to put on a huge SHARP position long-Trump or short-Kamala thats the best place to do it in. However- $BTC is actually not even that vulnerable to the election, neither are US Equities. So there will be a HUGE Catchup trade available with a timely rotation to other coins... The +/- % spread from the two outcomes from BTC will be ~12%. Smth like 74k trump, 65k Harris. But for $ETH it will be ~20%. $2300 Harris, $2800 Trump. Once the BTC move happens ill be looking to trade the $ETH catchup move, especially hard if Trump wins. This is the best risk/reward on election day I see. If Trump loses OTOH, the high beta free money once $BTC falls is shorting $DOGE. No Department of Government Efficiency means it could become a single-digit (cent) shitcoin. If Trump wins it will have a beta of course and I can see it flying through $0.20+, but it will have a sharp reversion once it runs too far. Time it at your own risk that way. Exciting day ahead, good luck timing your rotations! And keep some dry powder in advance so you have some flexibility. Good luck Dragons, keep hydrated.

Hats off to @thiccyth0t for the great writeup- the dude sat and transcribed it out old school. Typewriter and all. One of the things I'm glad we covered was hardware vs software, but for the human brain. For years growing up I was not using anywhere near my potential because I was stuck on "hardware mindset". Hardware is your processor speed, like raw IQ. You need this for doing well on SATs and getting into competitive classes growing up. Hardware gets the most attention growing up-- Its like the 100m race at the olympics: One quick conversation and most people can see your hardware. Its on display as much as Usain Bolt when he sprints out of the blocks. This creates a common trap though for early high-achievers. You start associating your Hardware with your identity- it fuses with your ego growing up. Now hardware is good and all- especially as it slowly decays over time, its good to start with a bit extra in the tank. But the ego-association can hold one back in life- instead of searching for objective truth and building your software on the solid foundation of reality, you instead develop your frameworks and habits around ego-preserving biases. This was me through my 20s. Its not a happy time to go through life when you can't reconcile the high potential you feel you have internally, with the outcomes in the real world not matching anywhere near your expectations. The reason I would fail at my goals through my 20s was because the foundation of mental frameworks I was using was biased. Full of holes. Trying to build a tall skyscraper on top of soft sand. One of the eye-opening moments for me was seeing some of the people I idolizeds a achieving the goals I had for myself, titans of the financial world like @RayDalio, didn't even seem to have that great of Hardware. Had I gotten it all wrong? Ultimately achieving anything in life is just a compounding of good-decision making. And perhaps these real-world high achievers were instead using excellent Software- relying on ever advanced concepts they built on top of solid foundation of seeking inconvenient truths. The best advice I could give someone in a spot like I was in my 20s, full of potential and low on results-- Walk away from the castles you've built on the sand. Gently let go of the ego that is attached your hardware and the bitterness of the world not handing you success because of it. Instead- start compounding and growing every year by focusing on building clean, bug-free upgradeable Software. Leveling up over time is the most enjoyable game in the world. I hope as many people as possible out there can join this game- its even better when its done with heartfelt collaborations. 💜

A message for all Steady Lads listeners: First off-- much love to all of you tuning into Steady Lads Podcast for the past.. 92 weeks!! We put a huge amount of effort to create the best content we could for you guys, and its been very rewarding to see it become a true staple for crypto natives. We took no sponsorships- despite many on offer- and paid out of pocket for a great editor, Brad. Overall I'm very proud of the output we put out with amigos @TaikiMaeda2 , @JustinCBram , @thiccyth0t . and the sick lineup of guests over the last 2 years. One thing I strongly want to address- I know there's a lot of bearish sentiment in Crypto atm-- And a lot of people have been writing on twitter or Tg that this is the Lads being "burnt out"// "capitulating". Far from it, this is not crypto exhaustion. Remember - We were born in the bear.. molded by it. It is simply time for the Lads to experiment with new content formats and try to discover a new formula that levels up the output even further. Personally I have a strong desire to keep growing as a content creator, I am obsessed with pursuing this rare intersection of content that is both entertaining *and* useful. Stay curious, hopeful, and positive, and will be with you soon in new ways. Upwards!

26/26 So in Summary, my totally NOT 'financial advice' advice to a young person wanting to set a financial basis for their future- Bonds: 0% Equities: 20% low cost-index ETF Real Estate: 15-20% Commodities: 10% Cash: 20% in stablecoins Crypto: 25% BTC, 5-10% Alts ++education

1. This amount of OI % of the token supply should have been hardcapped upon listing not to happen in the first place but 2. Given it HAS happened, the right thing to do is as soon as the code push allows, announce DELISTING - freeze contract and settle the positions at an oracle price. 3. Going forward set protocol size limits per coin, again a bit of centralization theatre -- but anyway the decision on so so many things like how to give points, what coins to list, and many more are centralized. This should be a clear one. Lets see if the gigabrains there navigate this one well-- in my opinion its much more dangerous than the exploits on BTC/ETH previously.

It would be a shame if somehow the Binance Whale that filled their maxpos of 10k+ BTC SHORT -- against a backdrop of stablizing macro conditions-- gets short-squeezed by a decentralized cabal of autist traders, grouping up to hunt down and chop up his blubber. A real shame.

Ok in an industry that has had the most crime season to tap all crime seasons, this MYX thing takes the cake. $200M in Open Interest stuck on binance alone paying negative funding- A random token without Any Tier 1 or even Tier2 listings, trading at 10 Billion FDV. Binance gets tens of millions in fees today by having this thing listed and trading 9b volume, but their customers are getting rinsed of way more. Similar tho bit smaller on other Exchanges like Bybit. Perps are fundamentally unsound when spot liquidity isnt there. I keep repeating this and now they find out the hard way. Question is what do they do about it. Will they listen or repeat the mouthbreather's line of 'Dont cry in the casino'? If there internal MMs arent hit Im guessing business as usual. They delist this at some point and it just gets run on the next token.

This "Can't Retire w/ $10M" thumbnail was clickbait. Point is-- Retirement planning is simply wrong mindset to have anymore. The FIRE movement should be extinguished, before it one-shots all the Zoomers. Yes-- grow out of menial jobs and 'survival mode' as I call it. It drains you of the creativity, self-reflection time, and self growth work that is sorely needed to be productive in the coming 10 years. No-- dont imagine a panacea of living off savings and being economically unproductive. You will turn into an NPC and be left out to graze with your precious savings turning into sand while the world around you transforms. These next 10 years are going to have incredible opportunity for those that remain economically relevant to the world. The wealth generated in these years will be enormous, and mindset should be set on making the bar to stay relevant and participate, not on checking out from the productive economy. In the podcast I talk about the relevant skills that truly matter now. **Building good judgement **Aligning with some of the emergent technologies **Focus on resilient non-fiat forms of wealth And much more. I've received a ton of kind messages on this episode and its one of the most important conversations I've had so far. I love the fact that it can be shared with anyone of you who wants to participate in this discussion. Links below to pod on X and its youtube. More to come..

Migration towards Defi Exchanges- Like WFH, it was always going to happen, but this is the Covid accelerant moment. At Selini Capital we have many HFT veterans amongst us, with an intricate understanding of market microstructure. Lessons that are guiding us on evaluating DEXes:

"What we learned this month":

Theres a lot of tariff derangement syndrome going around. I really have *never* seen as many unsound takes here from otherwise intelligent people as in the last few days. Some saying this is a strategy to weaken the dollar and make it more competitive, and others are saying its actually a 5d chess to strengthen the dollar and collapse the chinese yuan. Some saying its to solve inequality (lol), others saying its to help the rich by creating the conditions to pump stocks to the moon. Fuck it, you're gonna get me tweeting here with you every day until some sanity comes back to the public discourse. I get it, its a confusing and overwhelming time for all of us- these multi-sigma moves only happen a couple times a decade and it can be scare. Macro Jordi is back, lets try to break things down together using sound principles ONLY and clean up this mess of random takes going on. Stay tuned day by day..

Adam Cochran is a lot of things, but hes not exactly a LARPer. To say Sifu knows something, I assume he knows something about Sifu knowing something..

If I'm not hallucinating.. mETH has already surpassed 200,000 doses! Zooming up the leaderboard and closing in on $500M TVL.. 🫣 Its time for a mETH party to celebrate! The mETH LaB is providing a huge party budget: 20 whole mETH have been packaged up as party favors... >>$46,000!!💸💰 Rules below: 1. Reply with your best mETH memes! Be creative- and above all hilarious! You can submit multiple bids, but only one per account can win a prize. 2. Prize breakdown: Top 10 memes: 5 referencing 'mETH' and 5 referencing 'mETH LaB!': 𝟏 𝐦𝐄𝐓𝐇 𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡 ($𝟐𝟑𝟑𝟎). Honorable Mentions: Next 50 memes- 𝟎.𝟏 𝐦𝐄𝐓𝐇 𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡 ($𝟐𝟑𝟑) At the end, a group of CT personalities will vote to appoint one mETH Master Chef for a 5 mETH grand prize (>>$10,000)!! 3. Themes All kinds of pepes, movie Tv shows, CT native jokes- go wild!. If a known PFP collection wants makes a mETH 1/1 that will be 🔥! So will videos! The theme has to be related to mETH or the Lending and Borrowing mETH LaB. If they provide information even better- see my giga-alpha thread for info inspiration! 4. Like and Retweet this tweet to be eligible! Thats it- Lets cook some Memes!!🧑‍🍳 Tagging just some of CT's finest Memers and Artists to pass by for some free mETH: @poordart @intern @DegenSpartan @inversebrah @greg16676935420 @JohnWRichKid @gabrielhaines @MrEdogtagnft @JessieMorii @pix_bun @beeple

Two Scenarios: a) Dip is just year-end selling. We get a massive BTC-led rally Jan1-15th that creates momentum, and we get on the merry-go-round for 1 more ride (75%) b) If no big uptrend in early Jan = cycle over. Macro only gets worse. 6 months+ of downward chop coming (25%)

1/ Just like 1 year ago only a few of us were talking about imminent inflation but now its in every news story, later this year the new popular word will be stagflation. If you are shuddering, don't. Next year it'll be even scarier- The 2023/2024 word will be 'CBDC'. 👇👇

Macro is a mess. Here's some clarity: The Fed wants to see something really crack before pausing. They are focused on the labour market- but it is still strong! Because labour participation rate is low and most balance sheets ok, its likely that something else breaks first👇

I couldn't take it anymore!! Every day I was waking up. See airdrop announced. Check my wallets- Bad airdrop 😡 It is what it is, but I need my airdrops to go up! So this Steady Lad got real Mad. The @MadLads community has been impressing me for some time. They are solid at the core- forged in the depths of the Bear, not just fair-weather moonbois. And now they have undeniably become one of the most sought after communities. I have long spoken about how NFT collections could potentially earn awesome collective purchasing power, due not only to positive brand association, but also the huge value of getting the targeted attention of a strong and real community. And thats why im now glad- to be Mad.

"Trader's paradise, Investor's Hell." One day after the biggest single Market Cap increase day EVER, we get a top2 largest *decrease* EVER. IS THIS REALLY HAPPENING??🤯 I've been ringing the alarm bell- And I've been prepared. Sharing some of my tips for navigating below👇 Many have been getting chopped up-- Panic selling bottoms bc of fear.. or bc "the chart structure broke". 📉 Then- Buying blow off tops bc of some vague headline. Only to have a complete structural collapse, yet again. Anyone can make money in bulltard months like November 2024 where the pie is growing so fast and most are biased long.. But elite traders are the only ones that survive, and perhaps even thrive, in these conditions -- A few key things they do in this kind of turbulence: 1. You *MUST* prioritize having CASH to buy the DIP! You should even give up some EV to make sure you do. Jane street is famous for this one. They spend money buying deep out-of-the-money puts all year at a loss. Because that time when the market completely collapses, it is *SO* valuable being one of the only ones in the room that can snap up all the clear bargains. Everyone else is busy finding capital to cover margin calls. If anything, this is even more true in Crypto than Trad markets. Most retail is running on leverage and dislocations can be massive. What I do? Moves like yesterday's rip, I am happy to sell at the shoulder and miss the profits of the head. Refueling cash reserves for future is well worth the "suboptimal" exit. 2. Think in price terms, not in time. I remember last cycle when HighStakesCap would post an 8 figure PNL shot from FTX on an entry that was like 2 months prior. Its a powerful thing to have in the toolkit: Decide what price you consider "clearly good value" and what price you feel like the risk/reward isnt as positive, and that is your exit price. Then be patient. It could take an hour to hit your exit price and take profit, it could take weeks. You can and *should* re-evalute the new information as it comes in to change your "great entry price" and "great exit price". But if you are inflexible on the time component because "i only like to trade intraday" or "i only trade multiweek" you will underperform by definition. Don't step out of your comfort zone if you aren't ready, but the elite traders are just lazer focused on 'buy lower + sell higher' and let the market volatility determine their holding time. 3. Keep a clean, cool head and stick to the plan. Be well capitalized for the sizing stakes you are running, so when your dips keep dipping you stay chill and stick to your thesis. My thesis is there is no multiyear bull market possible when there's still a lot of tailwinds to the space and liquidity. That helps me feel confident buying. I also don't expect some magical "alt season". That helps me ready to take profit on rips and be happy to wait for the next opportunity. One mental trick I use on deciding whether to act (eg sell) at a certain level- When I see the current price I ask myself if I think there is a high probability it will at least retrace below this exact price. If there is, then this isn't some special entry point anymore, and I can follow the old adage of "usually the best position to have is flat". ======================================= I'll finish with a typical example of a trade I do in this kind of market- Bitcoin dips from 100k to 90k. I start deploying cash- I start scaling into buys from 90k down, by 82k I am at the large size where I am comfortable holding for months if needed. Seems this Dip got hands! Keeps going down to 78-79k. Down bigly on uPNL. *However * the r/r now even better, so I free up some extra capital to get some final clips in bc I dont believe in a long bear market. Average price at 83-84k, and I'm happy with this entry- many ways to see a future knocking back on the 100k door. As market recovers in the next days, those final clips at 78k get unwound for profit at 85k-- because in case market re-dips I have ammo to play the lower range again while I wait for my larger position's higher range to come into play again. In this case market is feeling friednly and offers no re-test of 78k to re-enter and instead continues higher. Take profit 87-93k and fully out, expecting to see a re-entry at least as good if not better than the 93k again. Miss the run up to 95k (sidelinedooooor). The initial plan was to re-enter at 88k but after seeing market can go higher, new re-entry price is put to 90k. Market comes back to 90k and scale up again on the way down aggressively. Take some uPNL again as I wait to either deploy final clips lower or take profit again (we are *here* now). ======================================= These tought conditions? I was born in them. Molded by them. Hope this helps a bit to make it a paradise instead a hell. Till next time 🐲

Turned 38 today. Ate otoro and A5 wagyu. NFP came hot. Thought I was gonna be down bad- instead up 7 figs. Recorded a debate on BTC where I had the chance to give form to original thoughts I've been wanting to contribute. I've had many bad bdays. But this one was good 💜

Bet you $10m it doesnt do a 280x this time. I’ll give you 2:1. @cobie can escrow. Lfg Richard- clear chart, full of sh*t Heart, cant lose.

A small victory lap before we continue into what will be a truly wild Q4- Easy to forget now with every asset looking like its about to pull a 2000 dot-com bubble chart but just 6 months ago the sky was falling under tariff tantrums. Since then-- 50% return in 6months in a low vol asset with minimal drawdowns. First-principles driven and with little luck involved 🥂 The key wisdom that will drive the discovery is same as it was in the one in April- "Water follows the path of least resistance". Trump tried to do something other than print money but once the political blockades of that became apparent the water found a way to flow through. The uncertainty around currency status also increases the TAM for USD alternatives. Now we are about to enter a high-volatility period- with rips up and inevitable liquidation cascades. Still possible to PvE in this stage as there are overdue inflows coming from the tradfi world into crypto now. Gold:BTC ratio will fall, Wall St will keep finding ways to come in, and the most interesting part hasnt even started- when the geopolitical game theory of digital assets between US and China starts. Strap in. We may witness more great risk/reward moments soon, in either direction. Clear eyes, full heart, controlled Fomo, cant lose.

If $UST had been better designed (didn't leak out so much of its treasury) and it managed to survive until today, this USDC/Tornado-freeze event would have been a rallying cry. @stablekwon had some good ideas, but the problem he was tackling was harder to solve than he realized.

People surprised by the ETH + BTC squeeze. Wait till you see what happens in 2024. Simple clarity- 1. Only 2 tokens have crossed the chasm of being a crypto store of value. 2. ETH supply has run out and BTC's is shrinking to under 1% soon. There. aren't. enough. coins.

Good time now to imagine what happens if fiat<>crypto ramps get SHUT hard by the gvt: NO way to get money in. Bearish right? Could actually be a huge step forward. An entire separate economy can be built around the digital assets- With no choice to convert to fiat, people will save and spend them for each others' goods and services. Similar to a 'Black Market' economy but it would be a '0s-and-1s Market'. As the governments cause inflation and crash the fiat economy, it will be an avenue for people to opt out of their local corrupt or inept governments. All we need is some organization, because right now when people say 'Crypto' we have a group of: - serious assets with good distribution and some potential for moneyness (BTC, maybe ETH) - total ponzi /casino stuff - tech investments/ basically securities - stablecoins but with different categories- only ones backed by crypto-money not bank deposits can work in this system There needs to be a coalescing and the global crypto users to get their shit together and figure out how a non-fiat money can work. The most important consideration is seignorage. We cannot print shit out of thin air and expect there to be money-coordination. Value has to be earned. Time for philosophers to step in and not just techies and casino operators.

Being in a position where you lead a group of uber-talented people is a deep privilege. The sacrifice for this privilege is that the only way it is sustainable is if you keep your hustle level to 100%. I remember a decade ago a CEO friend told me he stays at work till 2am every day- he tried once to reduce it to "only" 1am, and within a month his lieutenants effort dropped to 90% and the level below to 70%. Back to 2am he went. I think about this story often. He's compounded this now 20 year effort, and his team have had several historical achievements and are having a profound impact on humanity. Challenges for any business keep coming, especially if the growth mode dial is kept at 'High'. The only way to lead through this is by eating burnout for breakfast. It doesn't mean ignore it, it means hack it. This summer my 'vacation' was playing 12 hours a day of world class poker for 20 days, a grueling task in and of itself if trying to maintain an elite competitive level. Normally I can take a bit of break from work and clear my head during these 20 days, but with markets busy and Selini in growth mode it was impossible. It meant laptop out at the table sometimes around hands or on breaks. It meant getting back to room exhausted from dialed-in day at 2am, and catching up w/ work for another 3 hours. Emotionally and physically this was so intensely grueling, that going straight back into "only" work mode feels almost like a vacation. Its like taking off a weighted vest- you're still running but the mental hack of going at Nightmare Difficulty on the game and dialing back just a bit feels downhill now. Am I sure on choosing this kind of tough life? Actually I feel like there is no choice to make. It is the responsibility I have. Now what am I gonna do with all these 12 hours I've freed up from my day? I think August is gonna be Jordi content month..

Another WSOP comes to an end for me as I leave my Vegas escapade and return to civilization- and it was quite an eventful end — came within a whisker of repeating last year’s victory, just like then in my final event of the summer. Had 70% of all chips in play with 3 players left, alas it was not meant to be this time. Its been more brutal than any other year, fighting ill health and a tremendously busy work schedule to try and get some events in. Although no bracelet this time, three top 10s and seven deep cashes out of 12 events played Im still happy with. Even more importantly, as always during this annual challenge I give myself, there were some strong takeaway thoughts and realizations I kept from the grueling process. Will share these soon- though first some needed sleep! 😴♠️

'The Revenge of The $ETH' is starting. Everything has lined up, it will now run for weeks. Alts ran; Saylor fired his clip; Eth ETF next up. The risk/reward on Ether is so compelling here, that I see a liquidity black hole now forming in January. "Imajin being bearish ETH"..

With Trump's approval rating over the economy starting to fall off a cliff, its just a matter of time before we likely get back into the same asset-positive routines. Not direct QE of course but stealth QE, and maybe the new stuff which I've been predicting- yield curve control and heavy-handed attempts to force buyers of treasuries (like these wild "you buy-100 year bonds and I use the U.S. military to guard you" ones) I get what they are scared of: Ever-rising 10-year yields threaten a much larger problem for the U.S. taking a flesh wound on the stocks in pension funds. But practically speaking, ALL the possible solutions to this looming bond collapse problem are painful. And when thats the case, eventually the one that plays out is the options that has the path of least resistance. And unless the culture is such (e.g. in Germany) where the electorate loves them some austerity pain, the least resistance is MOAR intervention- debasing currency and attempting to inflate away the debt while giving free stuff to the people at the bottom to keep them on board. People at the top holding assets win as usual, and I dont think this game is over YET which is why I don't personally expect a bear market now. Part of the reason is that people dont understand the game they are playing still-- The middle class is net losing and being hollowed out as has been the case for decades now, but those of them aligned politically with the ruling party accept it and don't understand it- so there is more juice still to squeeze out of them. What they *SHOULD* be comparing is how fast their Net Worths are rising as a ration of the National Debt level. Not just the absolute number. Ultimately, Trump loves him some chaos and drama. This current dramatic situation is the kind of thing he thrives in and will likely squeeze some deals out of, despite it eventually ending with him backing down on many fronts. The most difficult question of course, is timing the pivot. Tough spot to go blindly long of course- The market might test bulls one more time, shaking the weak hands out and causing more pain-- just before the administration taps out from this game..

To be clear, you won't see me cheering $OHM price going down, today or ever. What is there to cheer? Early giga-whales r cashing out the gold coins, while the little guys are left dreaming of wooly mammoth steaks. Price goes down bc of whale selling, mechanics & 9,9 timebombs.

In 2021 it seemed like everyone in the world was buying crypto. The few resisting were gonna HFSP. We were all starting to believe we were in the midst of a historic SuperCycle that wouldn't end until Dogecoin Millionaire guy bought Finland for the LOLs. What went wrong? 🧵

Here's some α for you: -When to heavy buy the risk asset dip? If treasuries (orange line) are falling with stocks, watch your step. When they finally react to the selloff and reverse, thats the early sign the market believes the Fed has seen enough bloodshed to ease off a bit.

Yep. I realized recently that one of the secrets to my success has been a high tolerance for quieting my ego in situations that other people get triggered —and they end up reacting to a temporary insult/humiliation and losing a bigger opportunity. If you manage to not trip over your ego and be patient, theres moments in life where you can turn the tables in profound ways. Learn to eat a bit of dirt— Insults and discomforts are momentary, while compounding wins leads to sustained success and satisfaction.

I will say this much- Exchanges that have tokens should start prioritizing their users instead of their token holders, or they will quickly be left with neither. We have a long way to go on the road from casino to serious financial infrastructure— And instead of posting how much this vault or that one made from its users, I suggest thinking about how to address the obvious fundamental issues with the market structure. For those individuals rekt from participating in these flawed markets, I know theres many of you out there. Stay strong, you can absolutely rebuild stronger if you learn the right lessons now.

-Uniquely skilled people across all disciplines seek each other out. The top actors, athletes, businessmen, etc are just 1-degree of seperation apart from each other. If one can level up enough to get access to the elite group, growth goes parabolic. It truly is a binary thing.

Steady Lads-- we are finally back next week. Recording all of us together in person -- Yes, @thiccyth0t will be there too so we can thank him for his $ETH call to reach $200 just before him and @gainzy222 finally bottomed it together 😘. Happy to share it w/ you all soon 💜

Its World Series of Poker szn from tomorrow— Time to go full retardio and chase another bracelet..!!

Worst thing about Hyperliquid is the ongoing listing of “hyperps”. Ive explained to @chameleon_jeff at length about why this is simply a broken design, and the market has proven it time and time again— Price always dislocates upward from cex premarkers and is just a digital honeytrap for retail. Yet they keep listing them without a fix, its a slap in the face for anyone of us who cares about market structure. I love the ambition of going after Housing all of finance- great. This hyperps arent it though. Time to look at facts and not theoretical formulas. Fix it or stop them.

I know FTX offered their biggest clients "no-liquidation" accounts. This means they trusted you to repay a negative balance, so they'd let you top up whenever instead of liquidate you. Its like a casino giving you credit- its just chips for them, they dont need $ in the bank.

The epic trilogy "Of Smoke and Mirrors" proceeds with the rare sequel that is even better than the original- 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝗱𝘀'𝗙𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 A Masterclass on building your own Ponzi empire; The Caveman Classic; Learning the 10 cOhmandments; medium.com/@game_theorizing/…

The solution is this my friend- —Forget the old concept of working to save and then retiring to live off what you saved. This paradigm is going to be increasingly obsolete Instead: —Focus on the rate of your income and skill growth- learning the new tools. Refining your judgement (this takes a lot of ego work as only a healthy ego can have unclouded judgement). In the post AGI world we are going into soon, what you have saved in a fiat bank account will matter a lot less than how well you are navigating the new societal dynamics.

A simple description of why I keep saying the economy is fucked. 2020-2022 is a period of negative real growth- There simply is less stuff being made because lockdowns and supply chain disruption made the global workforce a lot less efficient than previous years. However..

Vitalik, glad you responded - These are the moments that offer a chance to appease pent up concerns by opening dialogue and offering clarifications if there are misunderstandings. We'd like to invite you to come on to @0xSteadyLads and discuss the things on the minds of the broader crypto community- while Bankless is great, this would be more valuable than an 85th Bankless cheerleading appearance. • What even the most successful Ethereum Defi founders (Stani responded also) experience • Permissionless/decentralized building vs needing "Ethereum-alignment" stamp of approval • The role of ETH the asset vs Ethereum the chain • L2 fragmentation endgame(s) to visualize .. and a lot more to discuss with you. Please consider it.

Btc ETF is about to Drop. Awesome! But markets are fw looking- and ETH Etf is about to have 'next'. The ETH community has been depressed. Its time to just take some mETH. A double-dose in fact. Christmas may be over but Santa Jordi is just starting: The mETH giga-alpha 🧵👇

1/ What does it mean to be at the end of the long term debt cycle? Lets start with a short term debt cycle: Hard times make easy policy Easy policy makes strong bitcoin Strong bitcoin makes frothy altcoins Frothy altcoins make hard times Rinse and repeat. But…

Been a while so lets do a quick twitter AMA. Whatever you wanna ask, markets, life.. Lesgo!! 👇

8/ Unlike the anons who have been deleting their accounts, I’ll be staying here to do my part to help us piece it all together from first principles and try find the right ways forward. No bulltard posting, no coin schilling. Just searching for +Sum outcomes. (💜,💜).

8/ So the game is set: The wealth effects of Bitcoin are a shared resource for all Crypto Plebs. If BTC stays healthy, we all make it. Despite inter-protocol tribalism, many token founders do support BTC- they want to build on a solid foundation. But remember the Tragedy..

This cryptocurrency “expert” thinks he can fix the shitshow of a launch they are responsible for in $LIBRA by taking the $100million and putting it back in the chart”. Ok buddy.. Im sure that way it will all go back to the same people who lost it 🤦🏻‍♂️. Great plan. Him saying that does make me think less criminal and more complete RETARDIO. The other person working with them also the same one as with the $MELANIA launch that halted the entire bull market. So its a real All-Star team of retardios we are dealing with here. It is broadly obvious that none of the onchain token launch methods work well at the moment, and the amateurs trying to do it for high profile launches are too clueless to design them well. Even ICO era was better than this crap.

I don't like to post random stuff 10x a day, so when I do I try to make it count. Glad this post helped a lot of people avoid capitulating the lows- Happy ATH day to all BTC believers!

1/ First of all, sorry for being MIA this week- I know many of you are hurting with this price carnage and looking for some guidance on how to process all the wild headlines. Some of these headlines (Celcius) I could foresee but others (eg 3ac) have caught me off guard too.

Last last year, before Trump got into office, I was saying how it was certain that soon him and Powell were going to be locking horns throughout 2025-- Trump trying to force Fed cuts, and Powell refusing to do them as he is more concerned with his legacy. This played out, and I expected it to continue until 2026 when Trump could replace him with a loyalist that would do it. What I didn't expect was Trump would care so much about winning this confrontation that he is willing to start a recession to do it-- it now does look like Powell is going to be forced to cut rates. But... then what? Dog chasing the car... Catches the car, gets his 1-2% reduction in rates. However the long end still looks like it won't budge that much, foreign buyers won't be coming in to buy long bonds like they did before. Debt servicing through the back end of the curve, and 30-year mortgage rates, likely won't change much. The obsession with rate cuts isn't going to achieve anything special, meanwhile the geopolitical effects of this strategy will reverberate for years. Best thing on a personal level is to prepare mindset for chaos, and try to be a fish in its water of this global uncertainty period that has begun. First-principles thinking is needed to navigate it and win.

I’m pretty good at debates Peter, if you want a challenge I’ll gladly take the other side of this against your goofy ass. Maybe @blockworks macro podcast moderating.

The sponsors of crypto treasury companies rn—

Crypto is (so) back! Despite limp equities, $BTC rose like a Phoenix 🪽 The prophecies foretold it.. long time coming! So enjoy the moment- Toss dice on Ponzi-coins if you want that PnD adrenaline! But then we have smth serious to discuss. *Trigger warning: 'S-word' .. 🧵

Pushan was of my fav game theory prof's back in the day. It's hilarious to see him still fleecing the students EVERY cohort with this same game theory auction trick! 🤑 Many successful Crypto protocols owe their success to it, without even realizing it. Heres how it works:

Celebrating 39 🎂! My sister made her first ever meme, and its a banger- well played sis!

Told myself I wasn't gonna get suckered in to a response game but here we are. Ser, choose your fav 15 of the top30 coins; use your last 2 years data, or astrology if you prefer. If 10 of them outperform BTC in 2022 you win. $1million bet, 5% to charity. Personal money. In?

Decision making is the meta-skill that rules them all. We have limited time in life, so enormous success can only come from having superior judgement, not from working harder. Even with superb routines and efficiency, you cant outwork 100 ppl. They have 2400 hours to your 24.

Back To The Future, IV Crypto Edition. Plot: You travel back in time to 2018 and find Do Kwon sitting in a cafe, sipping a matcha and scribbling in a notepad. He's reading an article he printed out- "A Note on Cryptocurrency Stabilisation: Seigniorage Shares" by Robert Sams..

We all know @bankless are hyper-ventilatingly bullsih on the merge- but really Kudos to them for exiting the echo chamber a little bit to get another perspective! And 🙏 to all of you who helped me improve this piece, I am proud of the final outcome: newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/…

I've been playing out the macro endgame through my head for the last 5-10 years. Days on end, running different simulations and thinking through what the long term equilibrium(s) would be. It started becoming clear to me that it all would come down to the weakening of the US Dollar. At some point the money printing would actually be unsustainable for the rest of the world. However!! I fully expected that this *special* reserve privilage of the dollar would chip away when the rest of the world got truly fed up with getting pieces of printed paper in return for their real scarce resources and labour. Little did I know that in 2025 there would come along a 'Chief Economic Advisor' that would through sheer incompetence start advocating for policy that would just seek to voluntarily give away this magic privilege. It was truly a pleasure to host the legend Ben @EpsilonTheory Hunt on Steady Lads in this new episode, as we chopped up the downsides but also the incredible upside of 'Pax Americana'. If anyone from the administration is listening, less Stephen Miran and moar Ben Hunt please. For the sake of all our famiglias. Full episode in the reply.

Dip will be ok, market will get bored and grind it back up soon enough. 🌴 But you know what won't be ok? Hard Rock Nick is getting very agitated and has a message for @SBF_FTX: Take care of @FTX_Official community asap, cause Nick is really losing his shit. 😡🎇 RT..!

Lol.. +30,000% 24/hr change.. Short-term crypto options might replace the other drugs as much stronger crack cocaine.. Robinhood apes just need to take one hit.

BTC took the punch well. We avoided the abyss. Good start. Now its counterpunch time- If a whale steps up here and starts a $1bn TWAP to send us green on the day, it will be a powerful, lasting narrative shift. BTC can and should behave more like gold here (+2%) than EQ (-2%)

My comment to Bloomberg @crypto today on the market— “Today’s poor price action in crypto assets is in our opinion the result of the market being tired from the repeated failing attempts to break higher and follow traditional assets. We are in an a hangover phase from both the DAT buying which has ground to a halt, as well as the recent liquidation shock of October 10th. The market will have to first convincingly show that a convincing bottom in price is near, before making a fresh attempt at breaking upwards.” So… lets see if some value buyers emerge at this level. It seems like a good spot for slow money.

-There is a "2σ trap" : being better than almost anyone you know in IRL and letting your ego's identity get tied to this. Losing humbleness will stop your growth there. -Insights from the world's best are immensely valuable. Level up enough first so you can appreciate them.

After you spend a couple decades making macro investment mistakes, you start to see how the economy's plumbing works... The hidden levers and butterfly effects. And I'll tell you- If you want your stonks and cryptos to keep rising: We need more nuclear power. That simple.

My taxi driver in Barcelona tells me he bought $HBAR. 200 euros in, made another 200e. I asked him how he decided to buy this coin. Hedera how does he know about that? He saw it on the MEXC that it was up a lot ++% and asked ChatGPT why it was up so much!! And he got the response on what it is and this deep research showed him the fundamentals are strong and he made his bet. Interesting prism into retail crypto relationship. P.S. Unfortunately he then took it all and tried his luck on futures after watching some video of an influencer trade at 400x leverage. We know what happened next :/ gg no re.

I've been saying we are closer to things breaking tha people realize, and after the latest hawkish FOMC, I consider this to be the first shoe to drop. Hawkish Fed-> Stronger Dollar-> Other CBs dump dollars to try and fight back. Japan starts as they have the most reserves..

Explosive blog post dropping tomorrow. You can then decide if you want to follow the Official Party Lines of EF Devs, Researchers, Influencoors & Moonbois- Or this random independent analyzoor who moonlights as a blogger. I tell ya- It ain't no fun when the rabbit got the gun.

1/ I really dislike the cliqueness around coin/tokens. The brain gets re-wired when someone has a high financial investment. The same reality gets interpreted in warped ways around it. And when a gang, er community, supports the same investment, they seem to become.. lunatics

GCR the absolute legend. I can visualize and grasp fluid probability distributions in my head, pretty rare skill.. But this mofo GCR somehow doesnt need distributions, he just directly sees the actual base Truth. Unreal!

Ahhh... I'm rotatingggg