CEO • 500,000 Followers • Seen on Bloomberg & FOX • Top Voice LinkedIn
Not Financial Advice
- Tweets 23,263
- Following 1,021
- Followers 413,928
- Likes 23,810
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Sorry I’ve been MIA…
I’ve been spending time with the best investment I’ve ever made.
Our sweet baby girl Vienna was born two months ago and has completely stolen our hearts 💗
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BREAKING: US Representatives AOC introduces bill to ban Congress from trading and owning stocks.
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Apple is the only major tech company that hasn’t done a big layoff.
Instead the CEO took a $50 million pay cut.
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The government can keep track of every $600 transaction the average person makes, but couldn't keep track of billions FTX stole
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Elon Musk is sitting next to Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch at the SuperBowl.
What are they talking about?
Wrong answers only.
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Elon Musk should hire Tucker Carlson and start a video service to compete with YouTube
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Would you invest in this business?
Total debt: $31 trillion
Assets: $4.8 trillion
Annual revenue: $4.9 trillion
Annual Income: $1.4 trillion Loss
This is the US Government.
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I read the 30 page FTX Bankruptcy court filing.
How bad were FTX's internal controls?
Here are the worst examples 👇
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Germany just shut down its last nuclear power plant
Now, German energy prices are increasing by up to 45%
On top of that, Germany started importing nuclear energy from France on Saturday to cover a shortfall 🤦♀
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The FTX story keeps getting crazier.
Here are new details that have come out in the last 24 hours:
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Uber has no cars.
Airbnb has no real estate.
Crypto exchanges have no crypto.
This is the new economy.
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Here's where the FTX scandal gets really interesting (and scary):
The names and deposit amounts of every single FTX customer could become public in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing
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Thousands of elites will fly into Davos on private jets this week to discuss how regular people should stop consuming so much
If this was really about saving the planet, why don't they do the conference over Zoom?
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The US dollar is losing its reserve currency status
Here’s what you should know 🧵
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The Fed has never raised rates faster
We are all test subjects in a massive economic experiment
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FTX owned an $11.5 million stake in this rural bank with just a few employees.
What the hell is going on here?
Time for a 🧵👇
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My friend said he's having money problems. Here's his monthly budget:
Mortgage: $2,500
Car Payment: $400
Utilities: $250
Twitter Verification: $8
Option Trading Losses: $17,500
Can anyone help him?
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Google's cost savings from laying off 12,000 workers: $2.5 billion
Money spent on stock buybacks last year: $57 billion
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Jerome Powell: "The banking system is running smoothly!"
The banking system:
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This is not oil, a meme stock or even a shitcoin. It’s credit card debt in America.
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Silicon Valley Bank CEO, CFO and CMO sold +$4.4MM in stock over the last 2 weeks.
But they didn’t know anything right?
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Good Morning Everyone! Last night I did some serious analysis on which actors should play the FTX team in the upcoming Hollywood movie:
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Many public stocks are not 'investments'. They are schemes for insiders and bankers to cash out at your expense.
The sooner you realize this is the game Wall Street plays, the better.
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JP Morgan paid $175 million for a college financial aid site called "Frank"
Turns out, the founder created 4 million fake customer accounts just before completing the sale.
JP Morgan is shutting the website down.
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Elon Musk:
- co-founded PayPal
- revolutionised rockets
- created the modern electric vehicle market
- buys 9.2% of Twitter so he can get an edit button
What can this man not do?!?
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ChatGPT has passed:
- United States medical license exam
- The Bar Exam
- MBA operations exam
Knowledge workers should be very worried
Community note
ChatGPT has not passed the bar exam. It got a 50% (not passing) on the MBE multiple choice section which is just half of the bar exam. It has not passed anywhere near passing, the written potion of the exam. vice.com/en/article/ake
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Layoffs announced in the last day:
- Lyft 13% of workers
- Opendoor 18%
- Stripe 14%
- Chime 12%
- Twitter 50%
- Morgan Stanley (% unknown)
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The chairman of the board of Credit Suisse is called Mr. Lehmann.
We live in a simulation.
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Bank of America just posted a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses
JP Morgan’s was $2.3 billion
This is a very bad sign for the economy in 2023.
Let’s dive in 🧵
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Elon Musk says that A.I. is ‘one of the biggest risks’ to civilization and needs to be regulated
He co-founded OpenAI
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13 year old asked Warren Buffett about the U.S dollar losing its reserve currency status.
Asking a better question than 99% of journalists.
CNBC
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President Trump and his wife Melania paid $0 federal income taxes and claimed a refund of $5.47 million on their 2020 income tax returns.
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Credit Suisse, a bank that lost $7.8 billion last year, is being rescued by a bank that lost $143 billion last year.
Gotta love the banking system.
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Google really messed up with how it laid off 12,000 employees yesterday
Employees who had worked at Google for years were suddenly cut off from internal systems and given their notice by email, without the chance to say bye to co-workers
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Good Morning Everyone! Is inflation cancelled? Container shipping costs are back to pre-pandemic levels.
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Silicon Valley Bank's customer withdrawal made history.
$42 billion was withdrawn Thursday.
That's $4.2 billion an hour.
Previous largest bank run in modern U.S. history was Washington Mutual bank in 2008, and totalled $16.7 billion over 10 days.
History is being written.
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2008: 25 banks with $373 billion in combined assets failed
2023: 2 banks with $319 billion in combined assets failed
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The S&P is up +13% YTD.
7 stocks are responsible for 93% of this.
Rest of market is only up +1.4%.
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The US Treasury has $57 billion in cash on hand while the government carries $31 trillion in debt
That's the equivalent of an average person having $1,000 in cash on hand and $543,859 in debt
Scary.
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ChatGPT launched just 5 days ago and already crossed 1 million users.
Here’s what you should know about one of the most disruptive technologies ever created.
🧵👇
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Only 2.7% of Silicon Valley Bank deposits are less than $250,000.
Meaning, 97.3% aren't FDIC insured.
Ouch.
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Five bank failures in less than a month.
- Silvergate
- Silicon Valley Bank
- Signature Bank
- First Republic.
- Credit Suisse
Now Deutsche Bank is wobbling.
Probably nothing.
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Banks have successfully fooled depositors into accepting 0.4% interest on savings while the bank makes +5% on treasuries
The biggest risk for banks is the consumer figuring out they can move their money out of banks and buy treasuries or money market funds themselves
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The 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in US history just happened within 3 days of each other.
My head is spinning.
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Good Morning Everyone! Janet Yellen testified before the Senate Finance Committee that she’s not concerned about U.S debt soaring from $32 trillion to $50 trillion “as long as we’re on a sustainable fiscal course”.
Newsflash, we’re not on a sustainable course.
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Harvard MBA grad salary: $175,000
Kim Kardashian salary: $80,000,000
I think everyone’s making fun of the wrong person here
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BREAKING: Janet Yellen says the government won't bail out Silicon Valley Bank.
Community note
This quote excludes the rest of Yellen’s statement:
“WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that the federal government would not bail out Silicon Valley Bank, but is working to help depositors who are concerned about their money.”
apnews.com/article/silico
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FTX Balance Sheet:
Assets: $900 million
Liabilities: $9 billion
I'm not an accountant, but this looks bad.
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This is not oil, a meme stock or even a scam. It’s the median monthly mortgage payment in America
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Bill Ackman says there will be bank runs everywhere on Monday unless the FDIC does a system-wide guarantee.
FDIC only has $124.5 Billion on its balance sheet and a $100 Billion line of credit.
US banking system is +$22 Trillion.
FDIC assets cover only 1.26% of deposits.
Disturbing.
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Blackstone’s $69 billion real estate fund announced today that it’s limiting redemptions.
This is a scary sign for the real estate market.
Let’s dive in 🧵
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BREAKING: BuzzFeed will use ChatGPT to create content instead of writers
The stock is up 92% today
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Silicon Valley Bank had about $209 billion in assets
Credit Suisse has about $578 billion in assets
This is a much bigger problem in the making
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The First
JP Morgan was able to acquire First Republic Bank, despite the rule against one bank controlling more than 10% of US deposits
JP Morgan now holds more than $2.4 TRILLION in deposits
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BREAKING: Apple launches a high yield savings account.
Offering 4.15% interest rate.
Meanwhile, the average savings account interest rate in America is 0.37%.
Is Apple the new JPMorgan?
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Microsoft: let’s hire Sting for a private concert for 50 executives at the World Economic Forum.
Also Microsoft: let’s layoff 5% of our workforce.
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BREAKING: UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse for more than $2 billion, according to the Financial Times
Credit Suisse was a $7 billion company on Friday
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Google's CEO mentioned AI 3 times in the email announcing the layoffs of 12,000 workers
AI is already replacing thousands of jobs
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The current debt ceiling is $31.381 trillion. That's $31,381,000,000,000.
The government has raised the debt ceiling almost 100 times since 1960, and needs to raise it immediately to avoid defaulting in the next few months.
Imagine if a company was run like this.
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QE is Back!
About $300 billion in assets added to Fed balance sheet in the last week
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China told companies to stop using Big 4 Auditors
They want to limit Western influence in Chinese businesses and overtake the US economy.
Here’s what you should know🧵
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My new favorite sport is to watch journalists chasing CEOs and asking them tough questions
Rebel News
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If you're worried about your bills going up by $100 a month, don't worry: the Fed is going to fix this by making sure you lose your job first
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FED: “The U.S banking system is fine”
U.S Banking System: “Biggest monthly loss in deposits in history”
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I looked through the 2023 macro outlooks from the largest financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and BlackRock.
(Links to all reports at the end)
Here’s what they’re expecting next year:
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This is not oil, a meme stock or even a shitcoin. It’s the average monthly mortgage payment in America up 50%
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🚨JUST IN: U.S. RECESSION UNDERWAY.
According to the Sahm Rule it is.
Named after FED economist Claudia Sahm: a recession is likely if the unemployment rate (3-month avg) rises by 0.5% from its low.
Bloomberg reports it has been triggered.
“Three-month average for the unemployment rate is 4.1%, which is 50bps higher than the 12 month low”
Triggered in every U.S. recession since 1970, with only two false positives (1959 and 1969) which were just premature by a few months.
Probably nothing.
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While big tech is laying off thousands, Chipotle just announced plans to hire 15,000 new workers
The future is burritos
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People are worried about a Chinese spy balloon watching a patch of dirt 10,000 feet over rural Montana
Meanwhile, they already gave TikTok all their personal data
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Ridiculous businesses that zero interest rates created:
- 15 minute grocery delivery
- Buy now, pay later
- Algorithms for buying homes
- Metaverse offices
When capital is cheap, weak ideas can raise billions.
Now, we will see which businesses actually work.
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Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB is in trouble.
It sold off a $21 billion bond portfolio for a huge loss to shore up liquidity.
The market is worried and the stock is down 54% today.
Here’s what you should know 🧵
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Do you have good credit?
Congrats, you can now pay for someone else's mortgage
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Why doesn't the media ever mention Mira Murati, CTO of OpenAI?
She runs the tech behind the most innovative product the world has seen in years. Before that she worked at Tesla, an aerospace company, and Goldman Sachs.
One of the most brilliant people you've never heard of.
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Companies that have disclosed exposure with Silicon Valley Bank:
- Circle: $3.3 billion
- Roku: $487 million
- BlockFi: $227 million
- Roblox: $150 million
- Ginkgo Bio: $74 million
- IRhythm: $55 million
- RocketLab: $38 million
- SangamoTherapeutics: $34 million
- LendingClub: $21 million
- Payoneer: $20 million
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Silicon Valley Bank just failed.
Will contagion spread across the financial system?
Let’s take a deep dive 🧵
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1. Employees submitted expense reimbursements over chat
A random manager would accept or reject those reimbursements with an EMOJI
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