Is the Indian stock market in a bubble?
The answer isn’t a simple yes or no.
Nifty 50 doesn’t look overvalued. (See image)
But the Nifty Midcap 150 index’s valuations will shock you. Let’s break it down.👇
We checked the PE ratio of different indices:
- Nifty 50
- Nifty Midcap 150
- Nifty Smallcap 250
The PE ratio is a popular valuation metric that tells you how much money investors are willing to pay for every rupee of the company’s earnings. So, if a company’s PE Ratio is 40, it means investors are willing to pay Rs 40 for every rupee the company earns.
The ratio indicates whether the stock or an index is expensive, cheap or fairly valued.
Now, there are two ways to look at the PE ratio. You can check either the trailing or the forward PE. Let’s first look at the trailing PE ratio. As the word trailing implies, we look at the historical earnings of the companies. So, we use the current price of the index and the historical earnings reported by companies to calculate the trailing PE ratio.
1. NIFTY 50 VALUATIONS
Currently, Nifty 50's trailing PE is around 22.44.
Now, let’s compare this with historical data:
20-Year Median PE: 21.35
15-Year Median PE: 22.37
10-Year Median PE: 23.43
5-Year Median PE: 23.15
So, compared to 5 years, 10 years or 15 years, Nifty 50 doesn’t look overvalued.
The current valuation is a bit higher than the 20-year median, but not by much.
So, overall, it doesn’t seem overvalued.
Now, before you form any judgment, let’s also look at the forward PE ratio of this Index.
What Future Earnings Reveal?
A forward PE Ratio simply implies that you divide today’s index levels with the expected earnings over the next 12 months. This will tell you how much investors are willing to pay for every rupee of future earnings.
Earnings growth has been significantly high from 2021 onwards. Thanks to that, the index's EPS compounded at 19.5% over the last five financial years.
Now, the good thing about earnings is that they generally follow a rather linear pattern. Barring some colossal event like a pandemic, they tend to be quite predictable.
So, if we expect a similar healthy growth trend in the next financial year, here’s how it will look:
20% Earnings Growth: Forward PE = 18.7
15% Earnings Growth: Forward PE = 19.51
10% Earnings Growth: Forward PE = 20.40
In all three scenarios, the forward PE is lower than the long-term median PE.
Overall, judging by the PE ratio, the index with India’s biggest 50 companies doesn’t seem to be overheated, even after a 24% return in the past year. This is largely because the index's growth has mirrored the earnings growth of India’s top 50 companies
2. NIFTY MIDCAP 150 VALUATIONS
This index is relatively new, so we have only been able to find its PE ratio since 2019. We used the 5-year median PE of the index to look at its valuation.
Currently, the index is trading at around a PE of 43.14.
If you compare this with the PE ratio of Nifty 50, the midcap index looks extremely expensive. But that’s not the correct comparison. So, we looked at the historical trend.
The 5-year median PE of the index is around 27.25.
The current PE is about 58% higher than its median PE. Clearly, the midcap companies are trading at a higher valuation. But why?
Why Is The Mid-Cap Index In The Overheated Territory?
The short answer: Downtrend in the index's earnings.
Between March 2022 and March 2024, the mid-cap index traded in line with its medium PE. However, from April 2024, valuations significantly jumped.
The index has increased by nearly 17% since April, but the earnings of midcap 150 companies have decreased. The Q4 earnings of FY24, which companies start reporting from April onwards, were lower than previous quarters, resulting in lower EPS for the index.
The lower earnings in Q4 of FY24 have pushed the midcap index into an overvalued territory.
High interest rates and inflation could be some reasons behind the muted earnings. These two could stress the company’s financials.
What Future Earnings Reveal About Nifty Midcap 150?
When we analyse the forward PE, the mid-cap index looks significantly overvalued.
Even at an expected earnings growth rate of 20% for the next year, the forward PE is 35.95.
So, the index seems quite overvalued, given its 5-year median PE is around 27.25.
3. NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 VALUATIONS
Like the midcap index, this index is relatively new. So, we used the 5-year Median PE for our analysis.
Current PE = 30.57
5-year median PE = 29.21
So, the small-cap index seems slightly overvalued, but the difference is as high as the mid-cap.
What Future Earnings Reveal?
Here are the possible scenarios assuming different earnings growth rates:
20% earnings growth: Forward PE will be 25.48
15% earnings growth: Forward PE will be 26.58
10% earnings growth: Forward PE will be 27.79
In all 3 scenarios, the valuations of the small-cap index don’t appear to be as stretched as those of midcap companies.
We were curious to know why this was happening. So, we examined the earnings growth of small-cap companies.
Why The Small-Cap Index Isn’t As Overheated As Midcap Companies?
Here, unlike midcaps, there isn’t a drop in earnings.
This is the primary reason why, despite the 57% plus return, the index is not in overvaluation territory. Small-caps are currently trading slightly above their 5-year median PE.
Of course, the conclusion is based on analysing just one parameter, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE). When analysing the three indices, we looked at trailing and forward PE. We need to make some assumptions for calculating the forward PE. And when we assume a certain set of data, there’s always a possibility that things can turn out differently.
Nonetheless, combining the trailing and forward PE Ratios can be a good indicator of the equity market's valuations.
To wrap up…
Large-cap: It doesn’t seem overvalued (except when you look at 20 years of data).
Mid-cap: Appears to be significantly overvalued.
Small-cap: Seems to be slightly overvalued.
What do you think about markets? Let us know in the comments.