📚Ichimoku Theory - Free Learning Material Below is the full list of the 17 educational threads I've posted on Ichimoku Theory. If they don't contain the entire Theory they probably contain more than 90% of it. I think that it's fair to say that it's impossible to find in written English this information for free. The amount of characters in all threads are approximately 100,825. One standard page is 1800 characters so this is ~56 pages of pure text. But, in reality books are often issued with bigger line spaces so they fit less than 1800 characters per page. If we account for that and all graphs, videos and images, I think that the page number can go up to 75-100. This is an entire book for you - here, for free. Enjoy it, but don't forget to share it. You got it for free, share it for free. If you like it but you don't feel like sharing it you can still pray for the sinful soul of Doctor Cat. Threads index 👇 1. The Ichimoku TA system nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1807… 2. Tenkan Sen nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1810… 3. Kijun Sen nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1813… 4. Real and fake TK crosses nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1815… 5. SSA nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1817… 6. SSB nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1822… 7. Kumo nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1827… 8. Chiko Span nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1830… 9. Sanyaku Signals nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1834… 10. Forecast lines nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1938… 11. Trend and range nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1945… 12. Key levels for visit and reversal nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1946… 13. Bull and bear traps nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1946… 14. Time Theory nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1951… 15. Wave Theory nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1951… 16. Price Theory nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1951… 17. Kyushu Ashi nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1953…

People who sold $XRP here need to realize that they just sold a fresh bullish breakout on the monthly chart after 7 years of accumulation.

$XRP Ripple The end of this correction should come between the 2nd of August and 4th of August and $2.78 should provide a support if tested on the 3D timeframe.

My macro target for $XRP this bull run is $19 - $32. This is based on 270K $BTC and 7K - 12K satoshi $XRPBTC. Probably in 2026.

For all the people who keep asking where to learn Ichimoku, what is CS and what is SSB: I have posted so far 8 educational threads which cover all the Ichimoku Basics about the indicator. You just need to use the search function but in this post you can also find the exact links like an index and just bookmark it. Keep in mind that these are the basics for how to read the chart and which line represents what. I have a clear plan for more educational threads to post in the future: how to apply the indicator readings, then onto the advanced stuff: Time, Wave and Price Theories and of course Kyushu Ashi. Kyushu Ashi is the secondary indicator and ironically it is the simplest to calculate and read. But to use it you must know first both the Ichimoku indicator and the Time Theory. That's why although it is the simplest to read, Kyushu Ashi is the most advanced level in the system as it requires the other knowledge as a basis. 1. The Ichimoku TA system nitter.app/drpastet/status/180770… 2. Tenkan Sen nitter.app/drpastet/status/181017… 3. Kijun Sen nitter.app/drpastet/status/181365… 4. Real and fake TK crosses nitter.app/drpastet/status/181529… 5. SSA nitter.app/drpastet/status/181783… 6. SSB nitter.app/drpastet/status/182290… 7. Kumo nitter.app/drpastet/status/182775… 8. Chiko Span nitter.app/drpastet/status/183054…

$XRP / $BTC $XRP remains the strongest cryptocurrency chart and while Bitcoin lost the weekly Kijun Sen and most alts entered bear markets, $XRP remains fully bullish on the weekly on the $USD pair. I think that regardless of what happens with the entire market from now on, $XRPBTC has at least one more leg up and the minimum target is the quarterly Kijun Sen which is currently at 5670 satoshi, a level that I have mentioned previously. Short term I said that I expect before that a test of 2264. I may be wrong or right on that time will tell. But the bigger picture is always a priority.

$XRP Ripple - Monthly Timeframe Analysis

Pretty serious unexpected health issues arised suddenly so I haven't posted the last days and I don't know when I will be able to post again. I've no idea how things will unfold, hoping for the best but ready for the worst. I guess the same principle applies to financial markets.

$XRP looks much weaker on lower timeframes the last couple of days than other altcoins. But this is very deceiving because on the monthly it's one of the most if not THE most bullish chart in crypto. $XRP has a very interesting tendency to look terrible for a decent amount of time - until it goes vertical with no retrace and no mercy for sideliners.

$XRP now has made a bullish kumo twist on the monthly chart. This is the "big" golden cross between SSA and SSB signaling that buyers are in control long term. The last time SSA was golden crossed over SSB was in September 2018, more than 6 years ago. $XRP was never really bullish in the 2021 bull run, it spent time accumulating instead. Now, it's breaking from all this long accumulation. And as we know, the longer the accumulation, the more volatile the explosion afterwards. You can read more about the kumo twist here: nitter.app/drpastet/status/182775…

$BTC Bitcoin No matter what happens the next weeks or months is important to remember how bullish the monthly timeframe remains. I feel like too many people are stuck with the idea "bottom here and now and run to 150K - or start a bear market" - which is not something which I necessarily agree with. My main thesis for a super cycle 270K+ target has always remain intact but it's important to understand that a super cycle doesn't necessarily mean green candles and joy every day. No, it can mean a lot of pain because it's a very long term trend on the monthly chart and over a long period of time a lot of pain can happen, including time based capitulation. And if you have to connect two Sandans (entire trend units as per Ichimoku's Wave Theory) on the monthly chart, it's completely normal to have the weekly trend dying in between. From the perspective of the monthly chart the idea for the super cycle can't get invalidated unless we make a lower low below the 74K low. Now if the weekly chart flips fully bearish as per Ichimoku's metrics meanwhile that may be an argument to reconsider the super cycle and even the bull run. But we are very far from this now. However, it's really important to know that if we are bullish on the scale of the monthly chart, bitcoin can literally go to 88k or even 76K while keeping the monthly trend completely intact. And it can continue to range for one more YEAR between the 80s and 120s before continuing to run to over 200K. Is this necesarily my main expectation? No. But it's a completely valid scenario which keeps intact the bullishness of the long term trend and the super cycle idea and I doubt that many people are considering it as an option so I need to point it out. If the weekly timeframe gets cooked it's unlikely to get a bullish continuation for around 26 weeks (6 more months) and if the biweekly time frame gets cooked it's unlikely to get a bullish continuation for around a year. Yet - even this by itself still doesn't mean a "bear market" - just a very big range on the way upwards.

$XRP Ripple If you look at the $XRPUSD pair you can see that if today closes above $3.37 that would be very bullish because this weekly candle has turned up the kumo and Kijun Sen up and that weekly close would result in a Chiko Span breakout. See the time cycles: this is week #27 so if it does all that bullish signals with a big bodied candle this is the Henka-Bi candle. In this case it would be very surprising to end the rally too close in terms of price and it wouldn't make sense to end the weekly rally before the 11th of August as the next cycle is 33 +-2. It's interesting to observe that there is a confluence between Fib extensions and three Ichimoku Targets as per the Price Theory: $4.53 N model / 1.618 Fib $6.31 E model / 2 Fib $9.22 2E model / 4.236 Fib With the condition of this weekly close all of them are on the table for the next 1-2 months and 4.5$ should be the absolute minimum. This was the other minimum target I shared back on the 7th of April at $1.89 in the quoted tweet. Then the market looked different and I was assuming 5.2K satoshi as a minimum and lower $BTCUSD but now things again align for it as a minimum as well.

Thanks for the support. I'm not in the mood to open DMs and engage with comments but I appreciate them. I'm also not in the mood for Twitter but as the market moves and many people get emotional I wanted to (re)share my humble thoughts: 1) The Crypto Autumn scenario which was discussed many times is unfolding. Bullish continuation above ATH on HTF is very unlikely for minimum quarter to half a year from now. 2) Bear market can't be considered unless we make a lower low below the 74K low or the weekly chart flips bearish. For the latter there is no single level to quote as Ichimoku is always a combination from time and price and time is more important. But one possible manifestation of the weekly flipping bearish is a weekly close below $79,466 after the 1st of February 2026. If these signals seem too late and low for you it's your decision to determine whether to derisk at higher levels and to risk missing the super cycle to 270K+. No one including me can read the future, always rememeber that. 3) Price has (barely) found support at the weekly kumo at a time for a weekly cycle low. Some bounce might or might not come here but for the moment I see a good chance to eventually visit the 3W Kijun Sen (which is currently and untill the 4th of January at 87.9K). Please note the wording "eventually", i. e. it might happen even after weeks and initial bounce. 4) Related to 3), a fresh weekly low briefly after the 7th of December implies further downside as the 33 cycle is invalidated. Also if the market bounces here keep in mind that 98K-101K is a strong resistance until the 21st of December 2025. 5) If most people consider either a bear market or this to be a shakeout and to moon soon to ATH the most likely is neither to happen. I.e. instead the chop on HTF to continue for months ahead, hopefully limited to the 80s to the downside, before the bull run resumes. Bearish invalidation for this I mentioned above already. 6) Don't mix Bitcoin with altcoins. Each chart is individual. You saw what happened to $ZEC and what happened to memecoins. $PEPE seems to be starting a fresh bear market with potential -70% downside for example and this has nothing to do with $BTC. 7) You can see on the chart updated the most bullish scenario (note that this is a very rough estimation but just to get an idea for how a lot of chop for a very long time looks like). Once again I don't know when I will post again. I hope soon to feel OK and to post and engage normally but I don't feel OK now and I think that in the best scenario it will take some time to be back to normal. It goes without saying that the market is dynamic so some of the things I say here are prone to change and update but if I don't update the biggest picture should be the best guide as it changes the least.

$XRP / $BTC Ripple / Bitcoin Here comes the first bullish kumo twist on the monthly timeframe since 2018.

I may be wrong but if you follow me you know that since February I haven't been bullish a single time at a local top, made it clear that we will not trend up in March and I nailed with deadly precision every single pico top and bottom I called. Right now, for the first time in months I'm getting so bullish that I feel butterflies in my stomach.

If I'm wrong about $6-$9 $XRP by EOY even better. Because then I would be even more confident about $20-$30 $XRP in 2026.

Increasing the 85% confidence to 90% regarding 2026. Also the target remains 270K for $BTC and $19-$30 for $XRP. But something tells me that quite some painful months can be seen before that - when many should believe that a bear market has started - to big extent because of the 4y cycle narrative.

To illustrate why $XRP is the strongest chart in crypto (I barely follow altcoins but at least I don't know any other stronger than $BTC): You can see how Bitcoin has lost the Kijun Sen and has got a death cross, even if a fake one it's a "score point" for bears which needs to be overcome. While $XRP is still in full position to attack ATH and 4.5$ in May: price holding Kijun Sen and with Tenkan Sen above it. Plenty of altcoins are already in a bear markets on the weekly, including $ETH. $BTC is struggling to fight back to regain bull control. But $XRP bulls still have full control.

$BTC Without Ichimoku you simply see a neutral range that doesn't tell you anything: But with Ichimoku you see that the 4h timeframe is on the edge of flipping bullish for the first time since the range started: You should already know by how many candles the confirmation comes, it's a single digit number.

$BTC Remember: any dump the next few days - if it happens - is most likely the last shakeout before the bullish breakout expected next week. Also time is more important than price so even if the Kijun Sen is frontrun *again*, but a low is formed between the 31th of July and 4th of August it's a valid one and most likely a bottom.

"This is not a prediction" - so I will not say "I told you" and that's not the point. I don't care about that. Just remember that this was the initial plan which was NEVER invalidated by ATH AFTER the 6th of October: as I posted clearly here as ultimate invalidation one month ago: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1974… The last ATH was exactly on the 6th of October so the time cycles were never invalidated. Yet... some people believe that cycle highs can't be used in time cycles and only cycle lows matter (oh dear!). But that's another topic. I only wish that most people learn Ichimoku and benefit from it. I'm spreading a lot of Ichimoku knowledge for free here, hope it helps someone. My point is, no need to panic as if something non-planned is happening. Super cycle is invalidated either at a lower low below 74K or the weekly chart flipping bearish - both events pretty far from here. Unless that happens we stay ultra bullish for 2026-2027 and awaiting 270K.

Let's make him hit 500K it's the least he deserves! I mean if there is anyone who follows me who doesn't follow @CredibleCrypto 😅 He has brought me around 3K followers out of 9K.

The Ichimoku TA System This is the first thread from the series of educational Ichimoku threads I'm starting as requested by my followers. They refused to see my feet pics and insisted on educational content instead. Here I will cover what is Ichimoku in general. 🧵👇

By the way.... Accounts with much more followers than me probably feel this stronger. But exactly after the 10th of October crash my Twitter engagement dropped like a rock. Probably the lowest ever and hardly any new follows. I think that plenty of people have left crypto forever this unfortunate day. Of course I'm sorry for them but let's hope for us who are still here that this was the needed capitulation to send the market higher. TA is still not clear short- to mid-term but at least from sentiment perspective that makes sense. The other thing I feel in terms of sentiment the last couple of weeks is that crypto is slowly but convincingly starting to turn into a very hated asset class, probably the most hated one. I think that most people have seen endless downtrends of their alts, painful chop of Bitcoin, ("supposed" market manipulations - I'm not in the group who strongly believes that as I think no one can prove it but virtually everyone believes it), and being outperformed even by traditional assets. Ultra max pain during "a bull market". And the funny thing is that when you zoom out, $BTC is 7X off the bear market lows which is a ridiculously high return. Another good sentiment point obviously. Normally the market goes up when everyone gives up but let's see.

$BTC Bitcoin A daily low and a potenail end of this correction should be set between the 9th and 13th of October.

$BTC Bitcoin 🚀 The pump should start the latest next week. This is when the best conditions for bulls are based on the future angle of Kijun Sen. If it doesn't start then, the daily uptrend will start to die and then I may need to reconsider my expectation for 144K the next weeks. But, for now, this bullish scenario remains my main expectation. Otherwise, about this week. In the quoted tweet 4 days ago I said that the minimum time for recovery was 5 days and the first window of opportunity for the 12h timeframe to flip bullish is on the 29th of July. This is tomorrow and as LTF is starting to lose momentum, the chance for bulls to use this opportunity is getting lower. I still can't write it off bull continuation this week completely but if LTF keeps getting ugly, we can't write off also to finally touch the Kijun Sen, which, is already higher than the low which for now I consider as a bottom. Which, ideally, if happens should be a last shakeout before explosion to the upside.

🧠 One of the things I learned from my PhD was that under strong emotions humans learn and memorize very well - but they can't effectively recall their knowledge in this state. ❌🧠And the opposite - when they are calm they can recall easily what they know but it's hard to learn something new. 🎉📚So I decided to use the emotions from the $XRP pump for something useful, to explain really briefly how Ichimoku's Time Cycles work and how they helped me call the last $XRPBTC bottom on its exact day exactly when the giga pump started for the first time since 7 years. Some people were asking since long time about the Time Theory - it deserves a separate educational thread and please keep in mind that it's way more extensive than what I can post here. But through this practical example I want to demonstrate a common and useful case for it as briefly as I can. So here we go: 🫴The time cycles idea, assuming we are looking for a cycle low or high (because Ichimoku can use the time cycles also for something else) is quite simple: We count the days between the cycles and measure their length. We can measure in all four ways: high to high, low to low, low to high or high to low. 🟢If a high/low happens on a date for a valid cycle low and high, we can assume that it will form a swing high/low and the market will reverse. ❌If it doesn't happen on a valid date we can assume the bottom/top is not in until the earliest valid dates for that comes. 4⃣Ichimoku has 4 models for spotting and forecasting time cycle patterns. But from all 4 models Kihon Suchi is by far the most important, reliable and prevalent model. The Kihon Suchi model has two rules for a low or a high to be a valid cycle low/high: 1⃣ No gap between the cycles (or just one cycle) 2⃣ The cycles length must be any Kihon Suchi number (with the acceptable deviation +-2). The Kihon Suchi numbers are special numbers which took decades of research to be discovered and are naturally appearing in the time cycles in all assets. Theoretically we can generate custom Kihon Suchi numbers using the guidelines formulas, but over the years with practice the following KS numbers have been established as the most common ones: 9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 51, 65, 76, 83, 97, 101, 129, 172, 200, 257, 676. 🤯As you see on the $BTC chart below, they tend to magically appear a lot of the time on the chart on many levels (zoom-in/zoom out, major/minor cycles). It even feels like someone has done this on purpose but it occurs naturally: So for example if we get a cycle 19, this is 17+2 so it's a valid low and it can hold. But if we get 20, we look for the next KS number which is 26 and expect this cycle (or 9 as it's the lowest one). So now let's look at what the high timeframes were telling us on $XRPBTC and how the time cycles made it clear that 12th of November was not only a valid cycle low, but a huge chance for the final low. 🗓️🗓️🗓️On the monthly, June was a 42 cycle which is an exact KS number so we assume it's a valid low - and the final bottom may be in. However, after this the chart didn't go straight up but dipped and started to form another low. So assuming that the 42 monthly cycle holds, we needed just to find the bottom of the higher low. 🗓️🗓️For this, we zoom-in at the weekly cycles and we see three cycles: 172, 9 and 24. 172 and 9 are exact KS numbers, 24 is 26-2 so acceptable deviation from 26. So all these weekly lows were valid and the low could have been set within this week, or up to 4 weeks ahead (as 26+2 extends up to 28). 🗓️So now to be more precise as 4 weeks is too long period of time, we zoom into the daily cycles. And there we see a confluence between three big cycles: 40, 131 and 100. With the acceptable +-2 deviation, they give us 42, 129 and 101 all of which are KS numbers. Well pretty much that't it. TA is never 100% it's always about probabilities and exactly for this reason we seek as much confluence we can. On the 12th of November we had a confluence between multiple time cycles on three timeframes, price reaction and rising volume - so it was obvious that this should be the bottom and the big run was finally starting.

$BTC Bitcoin - Quick Summary As per the analysis in the quoted tweet which I posted on the 11th of July, we are looking for a weekly top around 144,278$ (V model of the Price Theory) between the 18th of August and 21st of September (Kihon Suchi 33 cycle as per the Time Theory). As usual, we observe when the time comes to confirm or change this idea if a change is needed. It's interesting to observe that altcoins and especially $XRP have the window of opportunity to outperform $BTC confidently exactly from the 18th of August onwards. So I won't be surprised if $BTC sets a (local) top then and alts follow the next few weeks even higher. But that's just an idea for now, not a prediction.

$XRP Quick Update So far frontran the daily Kijun Sen by 4.5 cents, still not closed candle. Still not clear whether it will be tapped eventually or this was it. But in any case, time-wise, the chance to set a bottom by the 26th of July is over 80% and the biggest confluence between the time cycles is for today (the 24th). Both on the $USD and the $BTC pair. Otherwise the weekly, 3D, monthly timeframes perfectly align if they hold here (which is most likely) to coil up and explode after the 17th of August. All in all: an excellent buy the dip opportunity. $9 very possible, very soon (September-December IMO).

I'm so bullish for the next few months that I can't put it into words.

$BTC Bitcoin - Weekly chart 🗓️In terms of time, it makes sense the market NOT to top before the 18th of August. See the two time Kihon Suchi cycles, 9 and 26. Assuming that the current breakout is their Henka-Bi candle, for a top I would be looking earliest at the next ones, respectively 17 and 33. With +-2 deviation the earliest date for a top then is on week #31 which starts on the 18th of August. And the earliest forecast window is between the 18th of August and the 28th of September. 📈In terms of price, these are some targets based on the Price Theory: V model: 144,278$ N model: 134,213$ E model: 169,135$ 2E model: 228,914$ 3E model: 288,693$ 4E model: 348,472$ While the long term macro targets remain logical around and above the 3E model on the monthly timeframe, it's important to go one step at a time (and I'm still not sure whether this is the run to 270K+ or not). On the weekly though, from these targets by late summer for me the V model target seems doable. It's not over optimistic, and in the same time the price is breaking out of 7 months long head and shoulders formation and already almost at 120K so too shy targets don't make too much sense for me here even on the weekly scale. A few things to remember are that in TA we always keep observing and if needed adjust expectations. 👑⌛️And the second is that in Ichimoku time is always more important than price because time determines price. So the time cycles and how the price reacts on these dates is more important than the Price Targets. But if a key Price Target is hit on key dates this gives even more confluence for a (local) top.

$XRP / $BTC Why it was so difficult to look at this chart on the bigger scale and see that it was one of the very, very, very few charts in the entire cryptocurrency market which was making higher lows against $BTC above the monthly timeframe? If one in hundreds or even thousands of coins can do this, how was that not freaking bullish? But instead, most people prefer to stick to narratives and hate the most hated coin saying it would go to zero because of fundamentals. I've said it and I will say it again: $XRP this cycle was one in a 1000 opportunity and it was SUCH an obvious play since so many months! But very few saw it on time...

What an irony: Doctor Cat has passed 10K followers on Twitter exactly on the International Cat Day! I'm wondering if the Time Cycles could have forecasted that 😅 But anyway. Thanks to all of you. And especially to the people who have supported me and helped me get here: @ChartingGuy @CredibleCrypto @CryptoCoiness @CryptoSays @nology3000 @Osemka8 @phoenix_cr47 @TonyTheBullCMT

$BTC Bitcoin - Quick Update I trust this pump. Now all the 1h, 2h, 3h and 4h are valid bullish. So to answer the poll I posted today: for me that's enough evidence 109K to come before 99K and the HTF balances to remain unaddressed here and taken care of later, opposite of what I was previously assuming yesterday here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1923… If people think that this is a scam pump simply because it's on Sunday and attempt to short, I think that we can see a short squeeze. As had posted previously a while ago my first target above ATH is 112.8K, then 122.7-122.8K. At some point the market will need to address the imbalances and late longers will likely get punished: but we need to assess this later, for now immediate bullish continuation is the default assumption. BTW, I don't like indicators and rarely use them as most of them are lagging and useless. But one notable exception are the Bollinger Bands which are an excellent way to gauge volatility. As the price spends most time inside them, when the price closes above them and they expand wider, this implies not only a valid breakout but an immediate volatility incoming in the direction of the breakout. When you combine this with Ichimoku, and you see a BB breakout just around the kumo level, you get the strongest confirmation possible for a late breakout. Of course optimally you should try to long on a retrace, but if you've missed the train, and the market doesn't give a retrace, this is the best "late" setup from my experience as normally the price doesn't look back and a SL below the breakout candle is very safe. If you see, this exact long setup (BB + early kumo breakout) occurred twice at early 2024 when the vertical legs started, and the same is observed now. P.S. I'm not telling you to long now (and neither not to): if you do so you need a clear exit strategy which is way more important than the entry and take the decision yourself. I'm simply giving an example of this late entry setup as it occurred just now.

Study the comments of this tweet: If that was the $XRP bottom, I had never seen before so much hate and calls for lower on any of my posts in my humble Twitter career.

$TOTAL3 Altcoins On the 5th of June I said that the first obvious window of opportunity for altcoin bulls is in August. That was fairly easy to see with Ichimoku just by looking at the chart for a few seconds. As you see Chiko Span has finally showed up above the candles on the weekly and the daily is bullish. This time all bulls need is a fresh high to 1.18T to turn Kijun Sen up and get it above the kumo. Then the full send starts 🚀

Altcoins keep giving hints not only that the $BTC bottom is somewhere here but that the altseason may finally start. Or at least that alts have bottomed against Bitcoin. Because this altseason may be just dead cat bounces on HTF for many. To officially consider calling the altseason I will wait for the monthly close and evaluate. You know how patient I've been about it so far - and how accurate hehe. But look at this: in early February alts nuked when $BTC sneezed. Now Bitcion nuked and many alts are holding better than last time with higher lows. Even higher lows against $BTC. Even $ETHBTC which is one of the weakest charts has made a higher low so far. This means that most sellers have sold and left. P.S. Don't get me wrong about $ETHBTC I'm not bullish on it just giving an example with a weak chart. Will update it also after end of month.

Altseason (Real $BTC.D without stables) Using this chart with custom formula so far I was able to achieve 100% accuracy on my altseason forecast since I post on Twitter: - before Q4 2024 I said multiple times "no altseason" - in August 2024 I said "mini alt-season" in November/December 2024 under certain conditions and that came true exactly then. Forecasted a few months in advance thanks to CS divergence. - After that I said "no top for btc against alts minimum till February 2025" Right now, the same time cycles which projected Bitcoin to dominate over alts minimum till February 2025, are invalidating the 51 cycle, because now is month #54. Even though there are "custom" Kihon Suchi numbers which can be built using the guidelines formulas, and they can very well occur as well, in the markets is "established statistics" that after 51 comes 65 most of the time. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin to keep dominating over altcoins minimum till March 2026 (May 2026 +-2). And potentially to take the 2021 highs. This aligns to some extent with another chart I posted recently: $TOTAL3/$BTCUSD which is a flashing fresh bearish breakout on the monthly so the bear party for alts against Bitcoin can accelerate.

$XRP $XRPUSD As opposed to $BTC which is yet to balance the 3D Kijun Sen, $XRP just balanced absolutely all pending imbalances on every single HTF. 🐂 And in the same time, every single HTF is bullish. 🍀 This is VERY rare to see in the charts. It means that the price can continue 100% HEALTHY for a big move without worrying about any pending retrace. ❌⚖️More about Ichimoku's imbalances here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1810… nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1813…

$BTC Bitcoin 🚀 The weekly just closed with a B pattern Kyushu Ashi bullish breakout. As already mentioned, this is the strongest KA bullish signal. 📚Y pattern is when one bullish KA candle closes above another KA candle. B pattern is when the close is above an entire range of KA candles. 📈Also at the kumo you can see that SSA has broken above the previous SSA highest point which is also a bullish continuation signal. 🐍 With the bearish crossed Tenkan and Kijun Sen remaining the only non-bullish thing, Chiko Span is still above the candles and as you see now it has support at 99.8K. 🫴That's why I said that I don't necessarily expect a retrace but if we get one it should be limited to mid to high 99s. 🐂Also, the 3D chart just flipped bullish as well. On the daily chart any fresh high after the 12th of May would invalidate the 101 cycle. So if we still measure from past ATH the next forecast dates for Henka-Bi (cycle high or acceleration in the direction of the trend) remain 28th of May +-2 (which is also a Henka-Bi on the weekly and monthly timeframes). Because the next Kihon Suchi number after 101 is 129. 🗓️👀⚠️That's why on these dates we must be super cautious if at fresh highs and observe carefully for a (local) top - of course, if we are at fresh highs at the time which we don't know yet as we can't see the future. ❓🔮My guess remains that by this time we will be trading above ATH, but as usual we are here not to predict but to observe so we go one step at a time. ⏳When it comes to the time cycles, assuming we make a fresh ATH followed by another swing high before the 28th of May, we can alternatively measure and forecast different cycles from the fresh swing high. 2⃣8⃣🗓️But until this happens, 28th of May +-2 remain key dates and also it's not uncommon to have confluence between two cycles so I keep an eye on these dates, even more because $USDT.D is scheduled to test the lows at the last week of May as well. 📉🎵🎙️ In the quoted tweet I gave significance of this date also being a confluence between Ichimoku's Time Theory, the Bitcoin Conference, and Lil Bubble scheduled to DJ there. 😏🎵🔮As mentioned recently he released a video of an old bullish song and I was rather skeptical that it would play out also due to nice technicals now. ⚠️🎵 But on the conference I'm pretty confident that he will have a fresh track. 1⃣🐂 Otherwise the first bullish target remains 112.8K as explained last time based on the daily chart. 2⃣🐂 And if we hit it depending on when and how, we reevaluate if to expect the next major target which remains 122.7-122.8K, as explained previously confluence between E target as per the Price Theory based on the last monthly bullish wave and 1.382 Fib extension of the last bearish wave. 👀🐻 With that being said, speaking of bullish targets, it's a bit unclear to me what will happen the next 5-6 days due to mixed signals: 1⃣ If you remember I posted yesterday that $TOTAL3 is expected to see red days this week. ❓Not sure if we can use this as a hint for $BTC. 📈📉But if I'm not wrong and alts indeed correct at least some more the next few days, I wouldn't be surprised to see $BTC consolidating during that time before the next leg up. 2⃣ In the same time, $USDT.D keeps following the CS tracing and suggests that this week should close red, i.e. green for crypto. So one options is I'm flat wrong for alts and we simply pump straight from here. Another is $BTC pumps but alts dump (not very common scenario TBH). And another scenario I can think of is alts dip more while $BTC consolidates or just slightly dips, but eventually at the weekend or so the entire market runs and closes green. 🚀So in that case I won't try to guess what's gonna happen this week for $BTC, but multiple bullish signals on HTF suggest ATH and my targets above it should be a matter of time.

$BTC Bitcoin Aaaaaand $BTC made a fresh ATH and is breaking bull on the daily chart EXACTLY on the 13th of August! I made multiple posts about that the last 6 days explaining how this is the first most likely day giving opportunity for bulls to breakout on HTF. Is there anything more impressive than that in the entire cyprto universe last week I want to ask??? In fact, there is... The release time of Lil Bubble's bearish song "My bags are dumping":

$BTC Bitcoin Overview of the big picture ⏲️⏰📈In Ichimoku time is always more important than price because time determines price. 🐻🪤If the Kijun Sen is lost, but CS is still above the candles, this can still be a bear trap and the Kijun Sen can be recovered. 📚Remember, CS is NOT a level, and NOT an indicator derived by the price. It's the price itself, used as a pure time factor with zero lag, based on the most important 26 Kihon Suchi cycle from the Time Theory. More about it here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1830… ⚠️From all warning trend signs above the kumo, the loss of the Kijun Sen is the least important, then it's the bearish TK cross, then is the bearish CS cross - CS is the biggest deal. 🐂⏰For this reason I've posted weeks ago that bulls must close 18th of May above 99.8K to keep the uptrend healthy and even they need to close as well 11th of May above 93.5K - in order to keep CS above the candles. ⚠️🐂 If 11th of May closes below 80.3K or 18th of May closes below 89.4K this would be already a very serious concern though and we may need to consider the end of the bull run and look for exit pumps. ❌📈Because the weekly uptrend would get already seriously broken. ❓You may ask yourself, the weekly trend got broken also in 2024, CS went below the candles, we lost Kijun Sen, got bearish TK cross, why didn't we consider end of the bull run then? Because of the Wave Theory and the monthly chart. 🌊📈As per Ichimoku's Wave Theory each trend should consist of at least one Sandan and most trends consist of exactly one Sandan. 🌊🌊🌊 A Sandan is a wave structure built from 3 linked overlapping N waves, and each N wave is built of linked simple waves of other types. In 2024 the Sandan was not completed so we were expecting at least one more wave to the upside but now it is. 🗓️In the same time, we have a confluence with the Time Theory for a monthly top - Jugi cycles with Kihon Suchi 17 marking a valid cycle high: 🔮🧮 You can learn more about the Kihon Suchi numbers here where I explain how I called the $XRPBTC bottom on its exact day thanks to them: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1864… 🌊➕⏰The combination of the Time Theory and the Wave Theory is very powerful and helped me call almost a month in advance two moves and the lower low (the nuke on 5th of August 2024) with a precise date range as you can see here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1810… ❓Now you may question yourself the other way around: if we have confluence for a monthly top, why not consider end of the bull market from now? First of all, of course the top could be in, no one knows that and no one can read the future. But, one big difference between Elliot Wave Theory and Ichimoku's Wave Theory is that EWT has strict rules and must be always right at least in hindsight. I.e., the trend must have exact waves and if things don't play out as expected it means the waves need to be recounted. While, Ichimoku's Wave Theory doesn't pretend to be right 100%, it gives only a big percentage probability. 🚀🚀🚀And if the trend stays bullish after one Sandan, it gives a decent chance even for another Sandan on top (3 more directional waves or a super cycle in simple words). 😏🥳 As the sentiment was not bullish at the top and the last I wave is not very long, I still don't think that there is enough confirmation for a macro top and as long as the weekly chart stays bullish we must be bullish as well. ⚠️However, if the weekly gets broken as per the signs I pointed above, we would get a triple confluence from the indicator as well and would need to consider end of the bull run and look as exit opportunities for the next big pump - which even in the very worst scenario I'm really confident that will come. 💡One last very important thing I want to bring up is another idea I mentioned recently. ❓❌🐻As the market matures and obviously changes a lot, even if the bull run ends here we need at least to consider the possibility NOT to get a bear market after this. Or at least not the bear market we are used to get with down only moves and severe price decline. 🦘Instead, to get a "kangaroo market" with many months, maybe even years of consolidation in a decent range before the next bull run. This would be very hard to play TBH and impossible to predict from now. But we need to keep it in mind as an idea IMO.

$BTC Bitcoin If tomorrow, the 4th of July, the price closes above the 9th of June high that would make the daily chart bullish. Because CS will close above the candles and Kijun Sen will turn up. For now, the said high was almost touched but not renewed so Kijun Sen is still flat and at current prices CS will enter the candles by midnight which still means: neutral. So still it's possible to set here a daily high and a (local) top as per the time cycles: 2th to 4th of July unless the bullish signal mentioned above happens. By the way today I realized how funny it is that if you look even with a naked eye at this chart you will see how for the last month it's a pure obvious range. The same last month where I kept repeating over and over again that this chart is not bullish but neutral but some people decided to unfollow me or to post nasty provocative comments. I don't post 24/7 bullish stuff like a pathetic moonboy, especially when there is no bull trend on the chart, if you are looking for that you must follow someone else. I post detailed analysis on different timeframes with different perspectives but it seems like few people can understand and appreciate that.

$XRP / $ETH Ripple / Ether The reversal seems to be around the corner. When the true king shines and proceeds with the flipping.

$TOTAL3 (Altcoins) Similar to $ETH, altcoins are not ready to pump on the weekly and need minimum 1-2 months for that in the most bullish scenario. Because as you see not just Tenkan Sen is below Kijun Sen, but Chiko Span is below the candles - and this is a very big deal. It is very hard the price to overcome more than one obstacle at a time, and here there are 3: price below Kijun Sen, bearish TK cross, Chiko Span below candles, and even an extra one: Kijun Sen will turn down next week. Also when CS is below a "forest" of candles normally if it breaks out from it it is from a very "easy" place where the breakout can be clear: and as you see this is 8 weeks from now, so around 2 months. So obviously there are two options: 1) Nor Bitcoin nor alts pump the next few weeks 2) Bitcoin solo pumps and the dominance destroys alts Note that this is a weekly chart, by "real pump" here I mean big weekly candles above ATH which are very unlikely in June, maybe even in July. The daily is still bullish (for now) but in danger of losing the bullish momentum.

The $BTC moon party is scheduled to resume in October

The people who keep waiting for 114K at this point are at serious risk of missing to get on the train before it leaves the station.

A quick note about @tonythebullBTC As I feel recently he's getting some negative responses for being bearish or for changing his opinions. Please keep in mind that over 99% of the accounts on Twitter are pathetic moonboys who will permabull post no matter what - and will eventually get their followers rekt at the top. And if you are unsure of what will happen next there's nothing wrong about admitting it. Although I disagree that the top is in, I think that everyone who does objective TA and shares honestly their thoughts deserves respect for that. The easiest thing is to make only bull posts - never admit you were wrong, never get judged about that, always be "cool" - as being bearish is generally perceived as negative on Twitter. Anyway I just think Tony deserves to be treated better for all the work he does and for sharing his honest thoughts.

Out of 20 charts I watch including $BTC and $ETH the only one which made a higher low instead of a lower today is $XRP. Everything else is making bearish retests so I'd say more likely than not bottom is NOT in for the market as whole. But for $XRP I'm rather 50/50.

$BTC Bitcoin - Update At this point the "crypto autumn" scenario has over 55% chance of happening and if this week closes below 106,635$ this chance increases to over 75%. A quick note, in real life autumn is before winter but here I expect "autumn" to be before "summer" and to simply mark a few months long period with no bullish PA on very high timeframes but with no bear market either. It's important to understand that this scenario, if it plays out, can take many shapes and versions, it's impossible to tell from now how it would look and needs to be (re)evaluated at all steps one day at a time. But just to get an idea for it, I'm presenting a very rough illustration of the most bullish version possible of it I could see. I.e., Range between ~100- ~120K goes on for few more months, we keep the weekly kumo support above SSA and the first obvious opportunities for a breakout above ATH would be the weeks 5th to 11th of January and 2nd to 8th of March, respectively.

$BTC Bitcoin Chiko Span just retested the kumo and is back above it, the daily chart is bullish. IMO the price keeps consolidating before the next move to the upside and a significant retrace again is getting unlikely, limited mostly to 91K (if that).

$BTC Bitcoin - Update TL;DR 1) ATH briefly after the 6th of October = full bull mode in Q4 2) A weekly close above 119.6K would be also very good mid-term 3) A bit of caution is advised till fresh highs are made ⬇️Detailed analysis: 🐂⛳️The 1D, 2D and 3D have technically broken out bullish but need ATH for confirmation for further continuation, preferably after the 5th, even better after the 6th of October. ▶️The fresh high is needed to turn up SSB on the daily and Kijun Sen on the 2D and 3D - these are currently flat/pointing down and the last turn is declining on 1D and 2D as in the bull traps on the daily in early/mid summer 2024. 🗓️And even better the fresh ATH to come on these dates due to the time cycles because as I've already posted until then a daily cycle high can be set. 🗓️7⃣🚀If ATH comes briefly after the 6th of October it would be the ultimate confirmation for a bullish Q4 - invalidation of my previous idea for non-bullish Q4. ⚠️Until then, unless fresh high is made some acution is advised because on top of everything MTF/LTF is overextended on days for cycle high while we still lack the key high on a key date for immedaite bull continuation confirmation. 🗓️On the weekly chart, if Sunday closes above $119,514 on Bitstamp, that would be a Kyushu Ashi B pattern breakout, which, combined with the fact that the weekly Kijun Sen starts going up exactly next week would be very bullish mid-term. 👀One very interesting observation for the market as a whole is that many altcoins are not ready to trend bullish and need quite some time for that, and on top of that are at key resistance levels. Which gives me 3 main ideas: 1⃣ This entire thing is a bull trap for the entire market (lowest probability, I'd say max 25% chance, and if we get the weekly close mentioned above even max 15% chance). OR 2⃣ Bitcoin needs to pause here for a while until alts catch up OR 3⃣ Bitcoin solo runs and dominance pumps again for some time

$BTC Bitcoin I think that the bottom is in and the bull trend should resume latest in August. Fake bear break on MTF, plenty of volume, frontrun orders on the obvious support and a triple confluence for a valid daily cycle low - you can hardly ask for more evidence for a bottom here. The first window of opportunity for the 12h timeframe to flip bullish is on Tuesday, the 29th of July. If missed we may see some more chop before more upside.

It's very interesting how when in April and May I was non-stop bullish from low 80s to the top, how plenty of people in the comments supported me. And when in June I started to post that there is nothing bullish on the chart, people started to comment "this time you will be wrong", or simply moved away from my comments. Some of them who follow me, I recently saw commenting on moonboys with bull posts and again, supporting them. How sad and funny at the same time is that people don't want to hear the truth but want to hear what they like. Even though I've been deadly accurate since I started posting on Twitter, seems like the majority of people prefer not to track someones performance, but to go and listen to someone who fits their bias and to believe that they will be right this time. I get it, psychologically that's more calming down. But in the financial markets this can be absolutely destructive.

Out of nine swing highs since the May top I have been bullish on ONE. The only one that led to a bull breakout. On Twitter the norm is to post "HIGHER" without any timeframe. And if the daily fails, zoom out to the weekly, if it fails - zoom out to the monthly. Until the price finally pumps and these same people who were calling for "150K next week" the last 2 months now can finally say "I told you". Doctor Cat doesn't do that. He provides objective TA.

$BTC Bitcoin If the 31st of August closes below $108,389 on Bitstamp the weekly chart will flash the bearish signal: end of Kihon Suchi streak of Kyushu Ashi candles. This is when a streak of only bullish or only bearish KA candles ends in a valid Time Cycle. I have marked on the chart when and where this signal flashed the last two times. It signals either a trend reversal or a weekly consolidation underway. The same thing can still happen if the 7th of September closes below $109,231 or the 14th of September closes below 119,140. More about Kyushu Ashi in the quoted tweet. This signal combined with the monthly cycles may be another hint that a local monthly top is forming.

Remember when on the 26th of October I said: range resolution by the 5th of November. 5th of November was needed for Kijun Sen to turn down but ALSO to wait for 4th of November to close. And here I explained the significance of the 4th of November: "Also, the 4th of November is the 26th day after the biggest crypto crash which melted alts to near zero: so on the 5th we will see if CS on their daily charts will enter convinsingly the candles or will try a bearish continuation to replicate the crash wick at least in terms of direction." Now see the price broke exactly on the 4th. Because CS tries a lot ot times to replicate past PA exactly on the 26th period candle. It's extremely easy to see future dates with Ichimoku. Leaving aside the Time Theory if you simply use CS and the 26 cycle... it's a piece of cake. All you need to do is count to 26, no complex formulas, nothing. You can learn more about CS (the second price in the Ichimoku system) here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1830…

$BTC Bitcoin To make it clear, this is not a prediction because as I posted recently I'm 50/50 whether we've topped for 2025. But as I see some people discussing either a bear market or an immediate bull continuation - and nothing else. This is another alternative scenario to which I give minimum 50% probability now. That would be a valid monthly cycle high and a bearish wave from the second Sandan we seem to be forming as per the Wave Theory, which implies two more bullish monthly waves (super cycle). A further hint for it is the fact that it's impossible mathematically $ETH to flip bullish on the monthly in 2025 as I posted in July and it might need some more time for a real bull explosion.

$BTC Bitcoin - Update TL;DR 1⃣ If today closes above 120.3K bears are cooked. 2⃣ Bears are trying to set a daily high on the forecast days we were monitoring (5th of October), but even if they succeed, the cool-off should be temporary and limited to mid 119Ks (IF THAT - we can even not get further significant retrace). 3⃣A bit more balacing of MTF is needed for optimal healthy continuation Detailed analysis ✨5⃣🗓️A big shooting star is forming on the daily exactly on the 5th of October which was the last day with biggest confluence from the two cycles for a daily cycle high. 🐻I.e., bears are trying to set a daily high here - but it's still unclear whether they will succeed. 💀🐻In any case, unless today closes below 120.3K, bears are cooked and I will not try to guess whether we will set a daily high here indeed or not - sometimes these wicks are just filled. 👨‍🍳🐻The reason bears should be generally cooked by that weekly close is that we got already the daily SSB up, 2D and 3D Kijun Sen also turned up. 🚀🚀🚀Three daily timeframes with clear confirmed breakouts coming from low volatility - means explosive volatility with little to no retrace should follow to the upside. 🫴🐂Another very important bullish argument is the Kyushu Ashi B pattern on the weekly combined with the weekly Kijun Sen starting to go up next week. 🐂So if today closes above 120.3K, even if we set a daily cycle high here for me is a matter of time till we take off and next week should close green as well due to the KA signal. For the KA signal 119.6K is enough but 120.3K would also keep all three daily timeframes bullish as well. 1⃣1⃣9⃣Also, IF we see further dips for me the downside is limited to mid 119Ks, because these is the lowest high of the candles at CS on the 3D chart. ▶️Optimally MTF needs some more balancing for a healthy trend, preferably 3h and 4h to touch the Kijun Sens (currently at 121-122K but going up).

$BTC Bitcoin If 108.6K is hit on the 26th or 27th of August, it's likely to offer support and to end this daily correction. But I'm not confident that this would be final bottom.

Summary of my humble macro expectations I have been wrong before, I may be wrong again and I may change my opinion. But the more people I see disagreeing with me, the more confident I am in my current idea: 1⃣We are in a super cycle. Extending MINIMUM into 2026 but probably even beyond that. I have provided TA arguments for a super cycle based on the monthly chart multiple times during the last months. And I expect $BTC to do minimum ~2.5X from here this bull run. 2⃣The best conditions for a monster explosion of $CRV and $XRP start in 2026. 3⃣I'm not bullish on Bitcoin for the rest of the 2025 and I think that $BTC is headed to sub 100K before any of the bullish events above happen. My conviction for the thee three points is respectively: 85% for point 1⃣ 85% for point 2⃣ 55% for point 3⃣

$BTC Bitcoin ⚠️It's important to understand that this dip is not the casual 5 months dip because from Ichimoku's time perspective it's playing on the fire line of the weekly Kijun Sen. 🫴This week it's $109,824, next week it opens at $112,256. 👀⛳️So it's best to keep it as support or this would be the first red flag hinting for crypto autumn. The next flag would be CS entering the candles while Kijun Sen is lost. 🐍🐍🐍Last time in April we lost Kijun Sen but CS had more gap ahead to the candles, both on the weekly and 2W which is always safer. 🚀In any case as I've said many times, even if crypto autumn comes the bull run is way too far from being invalidated. 🧠But if that happens people just need to be prepared mentally. 🐂For now, both CS is above the candles and the price is above Kijun Sen on the weekly which is good. 👀But the daily is bearish so bulls need to push hard a bit more. 1⃣1⃣2⃣Othwerwise what I've said, even with the fresh lows we made, if bulls only keep 112K and don't make further lows, on the 5th of November things will look quite bad for bears on the daily.

OK I reposted all three threads again. You can bookmark them again as I deleted the old ones. Also everyone who engaged previously with likes, shares etc... please do it again so there is some engagement on the new ones: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1951… nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1951… nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1951…

$BTC Bitcoin 🫴⚠️I warned multiple times that we can't be bullish on the weekly before the 9th of June. 👀And I didn't know what would happen this week on Sunday but gradually lower time frames started to give hints and now it's pretty obvious that bulls lost the guard in the very last moment. 🗓️Also the time cycles which I warned that also give a valid cycle high on the weekly I think at this point obviously printed a valid cycle high as per the Kihon Suchi 17 cycle. 📈📉Because CS entered the candles, the weekly chart now is simply neutral. 📈Because the monthly chart is bullish, things are still long term bullish. ❓⏰So the question is, when to finally start the moonshot, potentially to 270K? 🐍Provided that CS stays in the candle on a close basis as well (pretty likely), currently there are two obvious scenarios for that: 1⃣Breakout in the week starting on the 16th of June 2⃣Or, if the 16th of June opens below $99,881, a pretty clear CS tracing will have started already. And in this case, the next most obvious time for a breakout is the week starting on the 14th of July (or the week after, i.e. 14th to 27th July). Simply because these are the places where CS can make a clear breakout above the candles terminating a CS tracing. You can learn more about CS tracing here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1830… 3⃣If option 2) is missed as an opportunity time-wise, and/or the Kijun Sen at 93.2K is lost, we consider much later breakout, and the next huge window of opportunity for bulls on the monthly is between November 2025 and April 2026. Because then Kijun Sen will start moving up each month. Currently I'm not confident that the bottom is in and 97-98K is on the table, which next week is a confluence between the daily kumo, weekly Tenkan Sen and 2D Kijun Sen. In brief, as long as 93.2K holds, we are good to go latest in mid/late July. Please note that even though such scenarios are very obvious right now, a lot of things can happen till then so of course we keep observing and updating if needed.

$BTC Bitcoin When Chiko Span breaks like that below the candles after an uptrend, and there is a spike up in the past PA in front of it, normally it doesn't go above the spike before the spike but after it or earliest at it. So based on that I think that we will not close above ATH before the 8th of September.

Altseason 🤧💣The reason why today $BTC sneezes and alts nuke is that the price ratio has hit very high timeframes support. I posted about it a few days ago and I was wrong about the timing of the bottom but price-wise it was pretty much inevitable to get at least some reaction off levels above on the monthly timeframe and higher. 👀 Now look at the entire picture: in December we also got the daily flipping bearish, the weekly Kijun Sen getting lost and price hitting monthly support - but it held. No matter how challenged bulls have been so far on the weekly, as you see the most important support was always held: the past candle at CS. ⚠️I have written many times that this support is way more important even than Kijun Sen. 🪄2⃣6⃣As you see, the price has NEVER closed below it with a gap so far during the entire run from the bottom. The "magic" of the 26th candle back. For me if that happens, this will be the most important hint that a big altseason is finally starting. Kijun Sen has been lost and recovered - as it can be many times during a "non-perfect" uptrend. 2⃣6⃣📉But, if CS closes below the candles with a gap - this is a very big deal and normally it takes a lot of time to recover. 🫴🗓️In the same time, as you see, a bearish TK cross can come earliest on the 18th of August. So if things develop optimally until then for bears (CS close below the candles with a gap), alts can explode in late August and in September (against $BTC, against $USD is on the table even in August).

$BTC Bitcoin 🗓️So far fresh highs on the expected dates and now keep in mind that IF fresh highs are further seen after the 18th of Setpember it invalidates the 26 cycle (the 33 one will be invalidated even on the 18th). 4⃣2⃣So this would mean no top minimum till the 23rd +-2 of September, based on the 33 day cycle and 24th +-2 of September based on the 42 day cycle. ❓🐂So if that happens it may be the first hint that the bearish scenario is not on the table at least till we see the next weekly bullish wave to complete the Sandan about which I wrote a few times. Note the wording, just a hint for now. 🐻☁️Keep in mind that when the daily kumo is that fat bearish it implies either an initial (or a complete) rejection at worst or a bumpy road upwards at best. 💪🐻In summary, bears can still reject here by the 18th. 👀🐂On the other side, fresh high from the 19th of Sept onwards however implies further fresh highs. ⚠️For now, there is still nothing bullish on the 1D, 2D and 3D and this is a danger zone for a rejection. 📅So unless we see fresh highs after the 18th the expectation remains a rejection. 👀Otherwise, if fresh high is seen after the 18th, the picture must be reevaluated because the weekly chart implies one more bullish directional wave, but the 1D to 3D timeframes are not bullish yet.

$BTC Bitcoin - Quick Update Still not clear whether the Kijun Sen will be touched ( respectively yesterday's low will be swept) but keep in mind that the dates for a cycle low are 31st of July to 4th of August (biggest confluence 1st of August to 4th of August). So if yesterday's low is taken on these dates, especially at the Kijun ($115,321) that gives good conditions to set a bottom and should be a time and place where it's optimal to be bullish.

$BTC Bitcoin There is still nothing bullish on the 1D, 2D and 3D timeframe. There is a window for a daily cycle high between today and the 6th of October, biggest confluence till the 5th of October - until when bears can reject. So one bullish thing to look for is a fresh high after the 6th of October. The other one is obviously the daily to flip bullish as per Ichimokus metrics, as you see for this the kumo needs to flip bullish, and CS to close above the kumo shadow ($119,325). Keep in mind that this is on the daily, if these things happen we should evaluate also 2D and 3D as well. On the bullish side, as I've mentioned many times, based on the Wave Theory, we expect one more bullish wave on the weekly, because the 98K low held. On the other side, due to the warning signs on the daily timeframes and the monthly cycles we expect a fresh low after September, which is yet to come. Obviously contradicting information, for this reason unless the daily frames give the above bullish hints I am yet to consider that the bottom is in. But if they do flip bullish we need to trust the weekly bullish continuation.

"The most important part of a chart is the lowest tick of the highest bar and the highest tick of the lowest bar." - Gann See what happened each time when the low of the highest bar has been taken. This just happened again.

Personally at this point I'm at least 85% confident that the bull run will extend into 2026+. But I'm 50/50 whether $BTC has topped for 2025.

$BTC Bitcoin - Quick Update 🔥 Almost there (110.7K) - if it hits it before the 5th of August it's the best thing bulls can hope for. 📉📈Big straight dump with no retrace into support on a days for a cycle low: that's where and when the bounce and (local or not) bottom should occur. This may serve also as a retest of the inverse HnS neckline. ⚠️⌛️But, keep in mind that even though price-wise that's a good time to find a bottom, time-wise it's getting increasingly likely, and should be confirmed by Wednesday, that the bull explosion above ATH is postponed minimum by a few weeks.

$BTC Bitcoin As you see, the 2D looks like a typical bear trap where the current price breaks below the kumo but lacks a quick continuation from CS breaking below the past kumo as well. As long as we keep ranging here for the next 2-3 weeks this creates good conditions for bulls to attack the highs as per the deadlines recently shared. But, if CS closes below the kumo, the 2D will flip bearish which changes the picture a lot. For the newcomers, CS is the price itself shifted 26 candles in the past: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1830… So CS closing below the kumo (cloud) simply means the price closing below kumo's value 26 candles back. Its current value is 81K. The daily downtrend is clearly getting broken which is a good sign especially after settings a valid cycle low on the daily: weekly: and monthly timeframes: In other words, many conditions are aligned for the low to hold and bulls to start gaining strength in the next few weeks. But we need to keep an eye on the bidaily chart as explained above and make sure it doesn't flip bearish as this may change the picture.

$BTC My base case for the next ~3 months: 1⃣ Kamala Harris to win the US elections 2⃣ Bitcoin to trade below 49.4K on any day between 28th of October and 15th of December, most likely between 11th of November and 8th of December 3⃣ Weekly swing low between 28th of October and 15th of December, most likely between 11th of November and 8th of December 4⃣ September, October and November to close below 72K and above 44.6K Explanation / detailed TA: ❌📈The weekly uptrend now is completely broken: price below Kijun Sen, death TK cross, CS in the candles, Kijun Sen turning down. I provided more details about what this should tell us here: nitter.app/drpastet/status/182563… And I made a short video showing what has happened in such cases here: nitter.app/drpastet/status/182298… ⌛️📉Statistically it's most likely to get a correction at least to SSB - and we still haven't done this. 📅 The time cycles suggest a window for a cycle low between 28th of October and 15th of December. We have three time cycle patterns suggesting this: Kihon Suchi 17 LL, Jugi 17 HL/LH and Taito Suchi 15 LL. 📕 The Kihon Suchi model is when we have cycles without a gap between them but any cycle can have different length, provided that the length is a Kihon Suchi number. 📗 The Jugi model is when we can have cycles overlapping one over another but they all must be with the same Kihon Suchi number. 📘 The Taito Suchi model is when we have equal cycles and they can be with any number, even if not a Kihon Suchi one, but the cycles must be equal. ❌🟰 And equal actually means +-2: the max acceptable deviation. The last two LL cycles were 15 so this could be technically perceived both as Kihon Suchi 17 and Taito Suchi 15. As we allow +-2 deviation, what is 15 could be 17-2 and thus Kihon Suchi, but could be also a straight 15 and in this case if it's Taito Suchi 15 we need to consider the next cycle also as low as 13 (15-2 deviation). The latter I personally doubt (but can't write off) as explained below: 🗓️🎯 While we have this whole range from the earliest to the latest forecast dates by merging the three cycles, the strongest confluence between them is between 11th of November and 8th of December. ⏰⏲️🕰️This is when the forecasts of the Kihon Suchi overlaps with the Jugi one - and even the Taito Suchi one fits inside for three weeks as a triple confluence. And to be honest, while technically Taito Suchi is possible here, for me it's more likely the 15 to be just a 17-2, i.e. Kihon Suchi because since the bear market bottom this is a consistent pattern which keeps repeating and Bitcoin and crypto in general tends to respect Kihon Suchi based-models. So while the entire window is a possibility, the highest chance for a swing low is within this tighter window: 11th of November to 8th of December. 🗓️⚠️🗓️On top of that the monthly cycles also suggest a cycle low between October 2024 and February 2025 - so a very major low is likely to be set in this period and the weekly cycle window is a good confluence fitting into this bigger monthly window. SSB is below 49.4K in this period and as I explained already, statistically it's most likely to get visited after the trend gets broken. 🔽 So I can see Bitcoin going there or even lower at the window for a weekly cycle low. ⏬Or, if it goes to SSB earlier, it makes sense to go even lower in the window for a cycle low - because the low should not be in yet in this case. That's why I expect a weekly swing low in these dates, and I expect these prices in them (weekly SSB or lower). ❌🔼🗓️On the other side, exactly because the weekly uptrend is broken, as I have explained and backed with data a few times that it is very unlikely to see a new uptrend before resetting in the cloud and waiting 26+ weeks since the initial broke time - which translates to late December. I don't write off completely ATH but I think that if we see one it will be quickly faded if the uptrend hasn't reset properly - as in 2021. That's why I don't see a monthly close above 72K - because 72K is the key resistance which if broken we may start mooning. ❌🌕And I don't think we will moon at least before December, or even 2025 (when the monthly Kijun Sen will turn up) for the reasons above. More details are available in the links I posted above. 🐂❌☠️ 🌊I don't believe this bull market is over and I've said this many times. Because we lack the last bullish wave of the monthly bullish Sandan structure as per the Wave Theory. And we haven't seen full euphoria yet. 🐼 44.6K is the monthly Kijun Sen and closing below it always has meant that we are in a bear market. That's why I don't see a monthly close below it either and I provide this range: >44.6K to <72K. Because these are the invalidation points for nor bull, nor bear market. 🗓️🇺🇸The US elections are on 5th of November and the forecast window for a weekly cycle low with highest probability is exactly after them. 👨👩‍🦰📉That tells me that we should see a dump immediately after them. 👨🚀As Trump is seen as a pro-crypto president, even if we were to see a dump after his potential victory, I think it would make more sense his victory to mark a major top or even a cycle top as a sell the news event. 🐂⬅️➡️🧸Because normally bullish news are actually - bearish (they come at tops), and bearish news are actually - bullish (they come at bottoms). ❌👨For the TA reasons above I don't see the price mooning before the elections, thus I don't see a crash from a major pump above ATH and therefore I don't see Trump winning. 🍾👩‍🦰🎉 Instead I see Kamala Harris to win as this should be seen as mega bearish - while in reality it might be a shakeout before the next, probably last big leg up. Speaking of a shakeout before the next big leg up - as I said above and many times before, I still believe that the bull market is not over. 🖐️But I prefer first to wait and see if at least all the bullet points 1-4 from this scenario will play out and then to reevaluate and confirm if I still think that we go up after that. Too many things can change in three months, let's go one step at a time. A forecast for a quarter of a year ahead is a enough of a big deal. ⚠️🐂🪤Also, speaking of going up, as I mentioned a few times recently, we must be cautious of bull traps for the next couple of months when a bull rally is unlikely. ⚠️🐂🪤🇺🇸👨👩‍🦰I don't have a clear indications for this from now, but especially before the elections I wouldn't be surprised to see a bull trap as normally the biggest traps come before the biggest dumps. So if we see bullish news just before the elections, or just a bullish PA, we must be very cautious of a potential bull trap. It goes without saying that I can't read the future and I may be wrong. But while I have done quite some efforts to challenge myself against this scenario during the last few weeks, I still think that it is the most likely scenario by a decent margin. If it's invalidated at some point and my opinion changes I will provide an update.

$BTC Bitcoin After the daily uptrend had been entirely broken, the price has closed inside the kumo. There was just one time in the 14 years trade-able history when this happened and it didn't reach the kumo bottom eventually: in January 2025. It's important to note that yesterday's tag of 102.7K was a logical place and time to set a bottom "theoretically", because this was the 2D Kijun Sen on dates for a cycle low: 21st of June +-2. But, I'm not sure whether this will be a bottom or not due to the look of the five lines on the chart so it's better to observe till Tuesday before making conclusions. If a fresh low is made after the 23st of June, I would lean more towards bottom not being in though as the cycle low would have been invalidated. Then I may update as well.

After non-stop traveling to 12 countries in the last 2 years I'm back home. That's why I've been pretty incative the last couple of days and that's why I will most likely remain rather incative till the end of month. When I start traveling again I should have more time for Twitter, currently there are too much other things to focus on. Othewise, briefly, and not sure when and if I will udpate that: $BTC bulls managed to set again a bear trap on the daily chart. But the 2D remains in a non-bullish state under double resistance: price below Kijun Sen at 115.9K and CS below the candles. So this level if tested again it's likely to be at least an initial obstacle. And based on CS, there is a small window of opportunity for a bull breakout on 16th to 17th of September which if missed the next window of opportunity should not come before the 2nd of October. $XRP has been looking better on the daily all these last weeks but it's in a similar situation on the 2D, likely to reject at least initially from $3.03 and also needs more time for a bull break.

$BTC Bitcoin - Quick Update 👀The price closed below Tenkan Sen. 🐻Now based on the "essential rules" you can read everywhere about Ichimoku the daily chart is bearish. ❌🐻However, as I've pointed out to me that's either "passive-bearish" (needs a trigger) or neutral. 🫴Because all of SSA, SSB, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen remain flat AND the 4h and 12h are not bearish. ⚠️If 4h flips bearish while the daily still looks like that, short-term we can expect some more downward movement. ⚠️⚠️And if the 103K low is taken, as I've said let's evaluate at the time but most likely the "crypto autumn" scenario is triggered, i.e. "non-bullish" mid-term. 🚀🚀🚀But even in that case the bull market stays intact on the monthly - as discussed previously. 🐂Now short-term bulls still have some time to push up, optimally by the 1st of November when the daily Kijun will turn down. 🔥The good news is that if the price doesn't make fresh lows from here and holds 110K+, on the 5th of November bears may be considered pretty cooked or even completely cooked. 🫴Because in this case we will get a bullish TK cross and CS will enter the candles. 👀Of course when we get to these dates/events we will reeavalute for more accuracy and confirmation but this is what I see from now.

$XRP Update It didn't even pause around 1.72$ as I expected and went straight for the more bullish option - a monthly close above that level. In fact, this monthly close is: - a close above all HTF resistance levels as per Ichimoku - the first kumo breakout in the history (at the early bullish years there was no kumo yet) - a Kyushi Ashi B pattern breakout (reversal or start of a new trend, the stronger Kyushi Ashi signal). Now 1.66$ - 1.74$ is a strong HTF support (previous resistance) and IF tested I think that it will be bought quickly. And I'm not even confident we will see that retrace. Below 1.66$ quite unlikely, if it comes should be a quick wick. Remember, I warned when I called the $XRPBTC bottom: after a long consolidation the train leaves the station quickly. In this case max pain is letting everyone sidelined.

$BTC I just found something in the charts. I covered the daily and weekly cycles the past few weeks and everything played out as expected there so far. But as you see there is also a triple confluence for a cycle low in February on the monthly. However, the most interesting is that the biggest cycle is 28 months, i.e. 26+2 which is the max acceptable deviation and the deadline for a cycle low for Kihon Suchi 26. So this increases the chance this low to be the ultimate bottom, especially when it respected the Tenkan Sen. Just an observation for now, let's keep an eye on the PA the next 3-4 weeks.

$BTC Bitcoin A renew of the 25th of September low ($108,652) after the 28th of September would imply a bearish continuation and no bottom before the 1st of October (3rd of October +-2) - on the daily chart. Apart from the time cycles, you can see that this would turn Kijun Sen down and make a valid bearish TK cross and CS is in a position preparing for a bearish cross as well. If you remember in the quoted tweet ~3 weeks ago I said that the bottom should not come before October - this was based on the monthly chart. Now the daily is preparing to align with this, probably if this low is renewed at the said time that would be the trigger.

Altseason You can see how it looks that the price is resisted by the red line after the wick. But if you zoom in you will see that the daily is making a bullish retest exactly on the same red line: I think it's super obvious at this point the significance of this red line which was my key level for so many months and I patiently kept waiting for the price to touch it over and over again while many kept calling altseason (and the time cycles gave me a hint the hit of the red line should not come before February which was also spot on). So, are you wondering which is this mysterious red line which worked so accurately? It's the only visible resistance level on the monthly chart: the past Kijun Sen at Chiko Span and the upcoming SSB at the current price ratio. And it is also a confluence with the 0.5 Fib retracement level. I was curious why people who use Fibs but don't use Ichimoku didn't see that the price ratio was right between 0.382 and 0.5 and it made sense even from this simple perspective to tap 0.5. My explanation is that most people are looking at the wrong chart: $BTC.D. I do NOT use the dominance chart because as I've explained many times in the past, it includes the stable coins which make it less accurate. Instead, I use the custom formula which removes the stables and leaves only alts against Bitcoin. I think I finally proved as well that this is the chart to watch for altseason as it's as accurate as it gets with this custom formula.

$BTC Bitcoin 🫴In the quoted tweet you can see the last three Kyushu Ashi time-based signals on the weekly chart. ⌛️The last one was triggered on the 31st of August and obviously led rather to a time-based cool-off/range. ⌛️🐂🐻The previous two: to price- and time- based reactions, one bearish and one bullish, respectively. 💪On the monthly timeframe there are no warning signs when it comes to Kyushu Ashi and as you see we are in a bull streak since the bottom of the bear market. 🫴🗓️If you remember, on the 1st of April I posted another KA analysis observing the 26 cycle here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1907… Then I said that "if July closes above 70,202$, August should close above 96,471$ and September should close above 93,347$". 🫴And exactly that happened - so until that moment there are not surprises from the KA cycles. 👀3⃣3⃣Now we have extended the 26 cycle of the bullish streak and are on candle #32 so this is at the point where a 33 +-2 Kihon Suchi cycle may be set IF the bull streak ends with a bearish candle any month by February 2026. If: October closes above 102,408$ and November closes above 84,316$ and December closes above 82,537$ and January closes above 94,181$ and February closes above 104,646$ and ❌⚠️We will NOT interrupt the streak and there are not any warning signs when it comes to Kyushu Ashi. 🚀🚀🚀Furthermore, if all these conditions happen and the monthly chart is still bullish we may jump directly onto the next Kihon Suchi cycle #42 so quite some more bullish KA monthly candles should come. Which would further support my current main expectation for a super cycle. 🔮In this case I might post the exact forcast for future monthly closes as I've posted in April the one about July, August and September. 👀⚠️If, on the other side, any of the above conditions don't happen we will interrupt the bull streak at a moment where a Kihon Suchi cycle may end. In this case, we need to evaluate the entire picture with the main Ichimoku lines because Hosoda clearly states that KA must be used always as a confluence with the main Ichimoku. 👀⌛️But, if we do get one of these, it may be a hint for at least a bit longer time-based cool-offs on the monthly chart. Even if that happens it's important to note that a prolonged range must not be mistakened with a weakness. In fact, the longer the price consolidates without breaking key levels to the downside, the wider the kumo gets, and the stronger and healthier the bullish momentum gets for further trend continuation. ❌🐻So far, it's hard to even consider a bear market when we are literally above the minor support of Tenkan Sen, let alone breaking any level. 📕More about Kihon Suchi and the Time Theory here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1951… 📗More about Kyushu Ashi here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1953…

"If you get on the wrong train, get off at the next station – the longer you stay, the more expensive the return trip will be." - Japanese Proverb

$BTC Bitcoin For the moment I was clearly wrong that the bottom was in. Yesterday's close was ugly and there is heavy pressure on LTF but still no new conclusions before at least we see if Kijun Sen holds or not. Support is support until proven otherwise especially when visited on days for a potential cycle low. Meanwhile one shorter term observation: There is a clear Chiko Span divergence on the 4h timeframe suggesting a reversal which comes now at a very nice moment. Let's see if it plays out. You can learn more about CS divergence in the quoted tweet.

$BTC Bitcoin - Quick Update The 1h and 2h are bullish now. I think that it's time for a moonwalk.

$BTC It would be pretty funny if the Kijun Sen is frontrun for the second time. I mean if it is it shows super demand it is what it is. I won't try to to guess whether it will get touched again even though today was NOT a forecasted day for a cycle low. But I warn you that if you are waiting for the Kijun you might miss the train. Last few posts I said which are the only two things I'm confident in short term: bottom is in, we take off latest next week.

$BTC Bitcoin ⚠️LTF keeps pressing down and while it's still unclear whether we close above or below the Kijun I need to warn that: IF the weekly Tenkan Sen/3D Kijun Sen is touched ($110,720), preferably by the 4th of August, this is a must buy the dip opportunity. The quicker the price goes there, the better. Also because of the 12h timeframe. Look at the kumo and the position of CS, which is still above the past kumo: 🐻🪤In this situation virtually any quick dump below the kumo is destined to be a bear trap. 4⃣🗓️So if we hit the next major support by the 4th of August which are the dates for a cycle low, this is an excellent opportunity. 🩸If the price slow bleeds to there and hits it after the 4th of August, and/or when CS is already below the 12h kumo things may look different and we need to reevaluate. ⚠️With that being said, keep in mind that if the price doesn't hold here and nukes to there, even though price-wise this may be a very nice bottom level, the chance for a quick instant bounced recovery and 144K in August is significantly reduced simply because time-wise the price may need more time to recover.

$BTC My logic for the 13th of August earliest breakout on the daily is because of Chiko Span, see how it's positioned. If the price holds 119.3K CS will be in an open space on the 13th of August. And I give one day in advance deviation (12th of August) as a "reserve" as sometimes the price likes to go one step ahead of schedule when smart money already "sniff" what's coming around the corner. Also 12th is the first day on which the price will do a golden TK cross, coming at midnight. So it didn't make sense to breakout before these events. With that being said the 12h timeframe already broke bullish yesterday which is 1 day earlier than I expected. So the chance for a successful attack on the daily on the 12th and 13th increases. Only if 13th of August opens or even worse - closes below 119.2K then things will not look good and the operation may get delayed further.

$BTC Bitcoin This is the first time when it's safe to be bullish at the highs since the May top on the daily chart. The 3rd of July high was taken. I've made enough posts about that recently explaining how this is the last confirmation for the daily chart to flip bullish. Before that since Sunday I posted 3 other bullish hints: 1⃣Kyushu Ashi B pattern breakout on the weekly 2⃣Sentiment expecting a dump (mostly to 105K I saw calls) 3⃣Earlier today - LTF and MTF flipping bullish Now this high renew can already serve as an official bullish confirmation. Remember that since I called the top in May, this is the FIRST time I'm bullish at the highs. On the previous 8 swing highs since then untill now I haven't been bullish a single time. Last month I kept warning that the chart was neutral. All 8 swing highs ended up as rejections when many people were bullish at them. Now, on the 9th high, I am bullish.

$BTC Bitcoin I didn't update yesterday but in hindsight we observe that a Lil Bubble's fresh song video and a Chiko Span divergence on the 12h marked the top. The CS divergence suggests that the next 1-2 12h candles should close red as well. You can learn about CS divergence here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1830… Probably for the bottom of this correction it makes sense to be price-wise between 112.9K and 115.2K. 115.2K is the 12h Kijun Sen just a wick below the daily Tenkan Sen And 112.9K is 1.1 ATR below that level, a quite reliable trailing stop loss signal which I don't expect to flash on HTF after a fresh weekly breakout, but if it does, we will reevaluate. You can learn more about ATR here: investopedia.com/terms/a/atr… Time-wise, the daily cycles have two valid cycles today for a daily low and since tomorrow three valid cycles. You can learn more about the time cycles here: nitter.app/DoctorCatX/status/1864… So time-wise the pico low may come even after today based on the CS divergence and the time cycles but if the said level is hit today it may be a nice dip entry IMO. Just since tomorrow we get more time-based confluence. Then, a some consolidation may be observed this week before a potential bull continuation next week. The weekly close last week was super strong and turned up the kumo so on the weekly scale things remain very bullish and as preciously posted, assumed no weekly top before the 18th of August as per the time cycles. P.S. As some people keep asking about some Ichimoku explanations, for this refer to the pinned tweet and the comments to it.

Three altcoins with a very good potential I see: $KSM Kusama Realistic moon target: 323$ (past Kijun Sen at Chiko Span) $EOS Realistic moon target: 7.84$ (past Kijun Sen at Chiko Span) $FIL Filecoin Here it's below the monthly Kijun but has a golden CS cross on the monthly and the weekly seems ready to breakout any moment. Realistic moon target: 120$ (past Kijun Sen at CS) Also, no matter how these play out I need to give credit to @CryptoSays for the ideas. I do my own analysis and I have my own opinion. But I'm a lazy bastard who watches between 1 and 2 charts most of the time. So we need someone like him to put the work of scanning hundreds of charts so we can just take a look and see what's interesting to us. Give him a follow, you won't regret it. BTW I'm also starting to share his opinion that this altseason may be the altseason of "dino coins". This cycle the only alt on which I have been super bullish since months has been $XRP. It had the best position: hated/capitulated sentiment, but in a super long consolidation without showing weakness. And now I think that some other old coins (although nothing looks as strong as $XRP IMO) may have similar conditions and may at least provide better entries if you missed $XRP. Remember, the market screws most people most of the time. The most obvious fundamentals "utility" coins etc... are most likely to pump the least - exactly because most people expect them to do so. In the same time, many "ancient" charts may have released above selling pressure as old holders may have capitulated after many years.

$BTC Bitcoin As Credible Crypto and me both are having decent amount of unfollows the last few days, related to what I said in the quoted tweet below, I would like to clarify the following: - I don't care if people unfollow me or not for being bearish. I care only about saying what I think regardless if I am right or wrong, I just want to be honest. If I wanted plenty of followers I would permabull post instead, never get trolled about my opinion in advance, never get attacked when I'm wrong, but I would be ashamed to look at myself at the mirror. The reason why I am still not invalidating 49K is simple. It's not because I am stubborn, but because I have clear arguments, which pretty much are approaching their invalidation point right now: 1⃣ We are at a turning point exactly at a time for a major cycle high just before a forecast for a major cycle low when we STILL don't have even the weekly close above 72K which confirms the bullishness on the weekly. All of which happens at the background of giga bullish news which is always dangerous. 2⃣ I do acknowledge that there is a lot of support above 49K. But, if I am right and we set the cycle here by today, then start the dump next week and close below 72K which is so close to us, Chiko Span will enter back the candles which still as per Ichimoku means one thing: RANGE, and not a bullish trend. 3⃣ If the weekly is not bullish anymore, and especially if the daily gets broken by closing below Kijun, what's the problem to go to 60? If we close a weekly below 60K, 54K should be programmed. If we close a biweekly below it, not only 49K may come, but even lower prices. 🐻🐻🐻 That's why a small thing as confirming this daily cycle high and closing this and/or next week below 72K may lead to a cascade of bearish reactions. 4⃣ On the other side, if we renew the high tomorrow or the next couple of days, and preferably we close this week above 72K, optimally with a big body green candle, plenty of arguments would turn against my thesis and I would see more arguments to invalidate it. Why? 5⃣ Because if we renew the daily high shortly after today, it means the next cycle high should come minimum next week. 6⃣ If a fresh daily high comes next week, this means that we might invalidate also a major cycle high on the weekly. Which, doesn't have as long and as stable pattern as the cycle pattern the daily, but must not be ignored, and if invalidated, would suggest more pump for the next 5 weeks. 🐂🐂🐂 As you see, exactly the opposite may happen, a cascade of bullish events. 7⃣ If we still set the daily high here as I expect, and dump next week, but very shallow and hold above 72K as a low, I need to observe but I may consider that this has been it for the awaited dump and we are moving up next. But I can't see the future so I can't say what will happen next week so I need to OBSERVE in the exact moment. 8⃣ Last but not least, something very important related to the time cycles and to whether we close this week with a big green candle. 🔮🗓️Ichimoku's Time Theory don't make the forecast only for cycle lows and highs. It makes them for the so called "Henka-Bi" which in Japanese means "Day of Change". This may be either a cycle low/high as expected, OR, a big candle accelerating in the direction of the trend. ⚠️🐂🗓️If we get a big green candle at the forecast dates for the awaited cycle low, this may mean that the Henka-Bi candle (with big body), DID happen on the forecast dates, but instead of setting a low, it set an acceleration in the direction of the trend. 🐂Which is another strong bullish argument. As you see, we are at a turning point where we should find out very soon what the market is telling us. I always do my analysis based on arguments and don't change my opinion just because it's unpopular, or because I am in the mood of doing it. If you want to hear only what you love to hear you need to follow someone else, I am doing objective and honest TA here regardless if I'm right or wrong.

$BTC Bitcoin Look at the weekly kumo: it's expanding, widening. This means that bullish momentum is building for potential trend sustainability even though the trend is not active as Kijun Sen is flat. Now look at CS: it is above the candles without a gap but has 4 weeks deadline to close above ATH or will enter the candles. In the same time, as I posted, there are multiple warning flags on the daily hinting for a bearish scenario which can escalate on many levels. So how do you interpret such a conflicting information from different timeframes? When a bullish kumo is moving up/expanding - as it's now on the weekly, it is hard for the price to dump a lot. Normally the kumo needs first to become flat. If the price doesn't make a fresh ATH in 2 weeks from now, the kumo will stop expanding. You can calculate that from the formula for SSA. So what all this tell us, in combination with the daily chart which has a lot of red flags hinting for the bearish scenario I shared? 1) If the bearish scenario based on the warning signs on the daily (and also seems 2D as welk as tonight we may get a death TK cross there) indeed plays out, the price will likely need at least 1.5 month or so for a very big dump on the weekly scale, because the weekly kumo will keep expanding for 2 more weeks. Within that time, the price may range around / just do small dumps to the 90s instead. 2) If bulls on the weekly want to save the chart from the warning signs on the daily and 2D, they need to push latest by the week starting on 14th of July anyway, or CS will enter the candles on the weekly. In other words, unless the invalidation I provided is hit: make a higher high above the 110.6K high shortly after the 27th of June, and unless the daily flips bullish by Ichimoku metrics, the bearish scenario on the daily remains on the table. But, based on the weekly, the price may need to range around at least for a couple more weeks even in the most bearish case where it dumps eventually. And if by the the 20th of July (the Sunday of the week starting on the 14th of July) there is made no fresh ATH and this day closes below ATH, and the price is still ranging around without the daily chart being bullish with the same warning signs as now, this is when we will get further red flags for bulls from the weekly as well - because then the kumo will have stopped expanding and CS would have entered the candles.

$TOTAL3 Altcoins 8 weekly candles ago, in the quoted tweet I said that altcoins need 1-2 months more to be ready to pump above ATH. See what I've posted then: Also when CS is below a "forest" of candles normally if it breaks out from it it is from a very "easy" place where the breakout can be clear: and as you see this is 8 weeks from now, so around 2 months. Now look at the chart and see where the arrows is "Easiest place for a breakout comes in 8 weeks" - on the same place I posted it back then. Now see where is Chiko Span? Exactly at that point, exactly 8 weeks later, pressing for a potential breakout. If only more people could master the timing aspect of Ichimoku and be able to see such things within the blink an of eye it would be wonderful. It's not hard all - all you need to do is to count to 26, even kids can do it. Anyway, as I said before, June was extremely unlikely month for bullish breakout, July - so/so, August - best bullish conditions. Now it's a decision time so the price might breakout here or not, because at least now CS is in a position for a clear breakout. Let's see.

This $XRP post went viral and got 600+ likes and 75K+ views in less than a day. But what's more interesting is that it got at least 7 comments pointing out that the price went below $2.78 "already". So my conclusion is that next time I should post the exact level with a full scale precision which is 1000X more accurate: $2.78695. And then I will get at least 7000 comments when the price dips 1 cent below. There are more than 24 hours till the candle close which will show whether I was wrong or right that this level would provide support. But now I realize that I've missed on a ton of potential engagement meanwhile.

If you hold a few coins the worst thing you can do is to take profits from the good performing ones to buy more from the worse performing ones in order to get a "better average price". You must forget about the bad ones and instead focus on betting more on the good ones.

$BTC Bitcoin - Quick Update The weekly closed above Kijun Sen but opened below it. Now the level to watch is 112-112.3K, if the 5th of November closes above it it's a good sign short term. But for now bulls are still not out of danger and the daily is still bearish. If next week closes below 112K this is already obviously bad on the weekly as it's both loss of Kijun Sen and CS closing in the candles. If the market doesn't dump till then but this still happens, it's a serious hint for the "crypto autumn" scenario.

$BTC Bitcoin So far the best long level was frontrun and some low *is starting to form* on the days for a cycle low (1st to 4th of August). 📉📈If we assume that the stock market influences the cryptocurrency market, I am not confident that $SPX has already bottomed, but I'm pretty confident that if it dips *next week* (note the timing due to the time cycles), it should find weekly support around $6,185 and form a weekly low around that level. ❌🐻❌🐂Related to this for $BTC this is definitely not a moment to be bearish but also it's still not clear whether the bottom is in. 👀Maybe if $SPX dumps on Monday/Tuesday but $BTC does not renew the low outside its cycle low window which ends on the 4th of August, that might be a hint that $BTC has bottomed. But let's first get there and evaluate for now it's just an idea. ❓Now the question is: if a bottom is in or very close to here, what is the upside potential in August? Chiko Span is still above the candles despite the damage the price has done below the Kijun Sen. 🧮 It's definitely much less likely than a week ago to expect bull expansion to 144K in August but there is at least still some slight probability for that, if bulls act quick enough. 🐍For example, if the price keeps pumping from here so CS stays at worst inside the candles but not below them, in 10+ days the uptrend might be able to reset under optimal conditions. 🫴 For CS not to go below the candles, the 5th of August must close above $115,226. If it closes below but slightly we need to reevaluate. If it closes below the candles and the past Tenkan Sen with a gap: the chance for a bull expansion in the next couple of weeks should be significantly reduced.