Trader. Sharing on-/off-chain data, in the human centipede of infomation chain.
- Tweets 3,369
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This is my worst day on earth financially. $700K got instant deleted.
Posting the loss here, and let it be a humbling reminder of the risk of leverages, even small ones.
Very devastating both mentally and financially. But not the end of the world. I am still in the game, and will continue to trade and post my research here.
Hang on there fellas, we will recover.
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obviously the road designer should go to jail. The pick up truck has like 10 meters of room (dashed line) to merge into a high way. It is designed to kill.
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Closing all positions on my perp account. $100K profit in a week is a good line for mandatory cool down.
$137K-> $239K. 74% in a week.(No, I am not gonna annualize that)
I remain bullish here. Just a mandatory circuit breaker thing. I have probably depleted my luck any way. Gonna touch grass for the weekend and replenish my luck.
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Cool. So CZ doesn't know how the Binance API works.
It's litreal open secret (They state it in the doc, bruh.) that CEXs like Binance only report the last liquidation order per 1s. If there were 100 liquidation orders for a ticker within 1s, they only report the last one.
There’s really noone else they can get to shill their exchange 😭😭
CZ actually expects us to believe there were only $2B of liquidations on Binance, just shameless
Hyperliquid
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In case you wonder why $HYPE is cucking today:
The sell pressure is not from within HL, but from one of the exchanges that listed HYPE.
Data shows that most top sellers of $HYPE on HL today are MMs.
Assuming these MMs are delta neutral on these trades, they must be buying somewhere else (where some one is dumping cheap token).
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Doing HFT on any CEX: subscribe to ws. Voila.
Doing HFT on HL:
- Run a non-validator node on AWS Tokyo with 16 vCore ($800+/month $$)
- Do the RAM disk trick ($800+ more /month $$), because HL-node only writes data to disk and not RAM, and it is close sourced.
Then you can drive your OB update latency down to ~120ms (median), but if you use orderbook server by Jeff (so you don't need to write one from sratch), the reliability sucks coz the gives you 1000+ms latency every few minutes.
- Worse than that, the orderbook snapshot validation fails all the time, so you need to restart/reinitialize it 100 times/day.
Oh man, I like trading on HL with my mouse. But there's too much BS if you dare venture into the low latency realm.
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For the newbies there, let me translate for you:
- We didn't sell team allocation.
- We are selling/sold 800M tokens from Ecosystem and Growth
We’ve seen a number of rumors circulating since the launch of XPL and want to set the record straight.
1/ No team members have sold any XPL. All investor and team XPL is locked for 3 years with a 1 year cliff.
2/ Of our team of ~50, three spent time at Blur or Blast. Our team members also come from Google, Facebook, Square, Temasek, Goldman Sachs, and Nuvei. To say our team is "ex-Blast" is to say it is "ex" any of these firms. We are proud of the team we've assembled at Plasma.
3/ We have not engaged Wintermute as a market maker and have never contracted with Wintermute for any of their services. We have the same information as the public on Wintermute's ownership of XPL.
We are laser-focused on building the future of money and won’t be commenting further. We remain incredibly grateful for our community's support. Now back to work.
Trillions.
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Fuck MEXC. Said it once and will say again: they are not changing for better.
They knew exactly which accounts are frozen predatorily. Their in-house "analyst" analyze which accounts are too smart and then flag for freezing.
If MEXC wants to, it takes 3 mins to unfreeze all the innocent accounts. But instead they (the real boss behind) play dumb and have @cecilia_hsueh work day and night to unfreeze a peanut number of accounts.
@cecilia_hsueh may or may not be genuinely helping you But it doesn't matter, because she is just a puppet any way.
I Withdraw My Offer to Advise MEXC - Here’s Why (Something Sinister Is Brewing)
After winning my case against MEXC - thanks entirely to the community’s relentless support and the spotlight you helped shine on their unfair seizure of user funds - I made a public offer:
If you are truly sincere in your apology and desire to change, I’ll make myself available, free of charge, to help guide those reforms. I have, in my life, built incredibly large web2 empires after all, and that's all they are - another web2 business.
Behind the scenes, I asked MEXC to provide a mutual NDA, because I couldn’t help them if they weren’t willing to be honest with me. I even rejected their “non-disparagement” clause - which, to their credit, they removed at my request - because I made it clear: I will always reserve the right to call you out publicly if this is all just smoke and mirrors.
Unsurprisingly to any of us: it was.
The first piece of advice I gave them concerned their so-called “Proof of Reserves”
Publishing wallet addresses they themselves provide to show the assets they hold means absolutely nothing. Offering a tool to verify your individual balance means nothing, either. Every user balance is a liability to the exchange - and publishing only the assets without an independently verified list of liabilities is 100% meaningless. It’s deceptive marketing pretending to be transparency.
When I told them this their response was:
“Well, it’s better than nothing, right?”
No. In fact it IS nothing, by design.
Seeing MEXC continue to push this fake “proof of reserves” narrative reminds me of an old saying:
“If you have to tell people you’re a lady, you aren’t.”
The second point I made - both publicly and privately - was clear: Stop confiscating user funds. If you suspect illegal activity, turn it over to law enforcement. Otherwise, give people their money back.
They’re still doing it. And it’s getting worse.
Take the case of @loveme4994
This user reached out and sent me evidence, which I verified through screen recordings and other account data. MEXC cited their Risk Control Guidelines:
mexc.com/announcements/artic…
The document still includes language like “suspected” - meaning they can permanently keep your funds based on suspicion alone.
Here’s the deeper problem: almost every major item on that list could be prevented through code if they truly wanted to. But removing the loopholes would also remove their excuses to seize user funds.
And here’s where it turns sinister - and why I feel partly responsible.
After I made my account history public to prove my innocence, MEXC seems to have learned from it. In this latest case, they completely wiped the user’s transaction history after confiscating their funds.
They stole the user’s money. They admitted to it.
They offered no specific accusation.
And they erased the evidence that could have helped proven the user’s innocence.
My case was over $3 million.
This user lost roughly $4,000 - which, for most people, is life-changing.
Their $4,000 means more to them than my $3 million ever did.
While some high-profile cases have been resolved, I continue to see new ones daily that aren’t.
As long as this structural rot exists - fake “proof of reserves,” arbitrary justifications for seizures, lack of due process, and the ability to block users from their own records - MEXC remains a rotten apple.
Rotten to the core.
🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋
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Aster volume post stage 2 farming:
Date Volume Daily change
Oct 8 $9.5B -31.08%
Oct 7 $13.7B -2.76%
Oct 6 $14.1B -86.71%
Oct 5 $106.2B
Looking like a nice steady trend.
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While you lot are all dunking on HIP-5. It is actually something already on the Hyper Foundation Roadmap.
Stop jumping to conclusions and start to read the actual proposal and analyze, please.
HIP-5: Staker Governed Assistance Fund (AF-2)
This HIP proposes allocating up to 5% of protocol trading fees to a new Assistance Fund (AF-2) governed directly by HYPE stakers.
AF-2 extends the current buyback model (AF-1) by introducing real-time, on-chain voting that allows stakers to direct part of the fees toward Strict List tokens (e.g., HYPE, PURR, HFUN).
This mechanism supports ecosystem growth while maintaining HYPE’s deflationary structure and attracts new builders.
The proposal includes a detailed empirical simulation analyzing market impact, liquidity effects, and risk mitigation measures such as LSD governance safeguards and TWAP execution design.
Co-authors: @Ericonomic (Supercexy), @CalebAndersDev (Flowdesk), @CFrugho, @0xHakai_ (Three Sigma), @FSobrini (Chorus One) and @HansonBirringer (FlowDesk).
This post is also available in the Governance section of the Hyperliquid Discord channel.
The full research version is available here:
docs.google.com/document/d/1…
Feedback, questions and governance discussion are welcome.
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Brother, it's not "just tax", the tax forces a less efficient production/transportation route. It's net loss for everyone, that ain't a quesiton. The question is whether that net loss is justifiable for the sake of subsidizing domestic production
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Some may be wondering why $HYPE pumped so hard. Everything says bullish, my friend.
Mirco
- Hanging 9 fig buy pressrue from DAT, the pressrue is hanging, not to be exeucuted soon, which is the best tyep of news
- Techno finished panic dumping (Thanks @mlmabc for the clues)
- @laurentzeimes started buying spot HYPE (instead of long perp) which signals a long term hold/bullish view
- HIP-3 started gaining interest, stock perps being listed
- gtrove.hl deposited $20M USDC, presumably waiting to buy 500K $HYPE (whether they will actually buy is another story)
Macro
- stablecoin supply still skyrocketing
- perp delveraging mostly done, and OI recovering
Disclaimer: I have closed my perp long earlier today Spot holding and Hypurr is my only exposure to HYPE at this exact moment. Just spreading good vibe.
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they are selling. and trying to mislead you into thinking they didin't.
That's all you need to know about the ethics of this team.
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sounds like you have not paid the tuition fee for shorting yet.
Statistically this port would have much better SHARP than shorting the top 5 shitters, which can liquidate you before you know it, even with <1 leverage.
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My special thanks goes to:
@GarrettBullish 's client making the BTC direction very obvious
@realDonaldTrump pumping my $ASTER bag
@Rewkang 's associate on the $ENA liquidation
@technorevenant panic dumping his $HYPE so I could max ape into $HYPE with haste
Last week's wins wouldn't be possible whthout their help.
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Just closed my first trade after liquidation. Booked $2.4K profit. Just need to do this 300 times and I will make back my $700K liquidated account😂
I am bearis, and I posted my short thesis, and I shorted. "知行合一" --- Unity of knowledge and action
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Just friendly reminder that after a deleveraging event like this happened, lot of OI got wiped out.
That usually means much lower volume in the coming days, and by extension much lower revenue for trading platforms, HL included. So you would see ATH fee today, but expect shitty numbers coming.
Jesus, I am already fudding my staked bag, after my perp got insta deleted.
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LMAO. Aster is not even capable of distributing airdrops through a smart contract and opts to airdrop through a centralized DB (hint use merkle tree or 3rd party service).
If you think Aster can move any of their trading engine on chain,...
Heads up, community.
We’re moving funds on-chain to prepare for the upcoming Stage 2 $ASTER airdrop claim.
A total of 4% of $ASTER tokens will be transferred from the Airdrop Reserve to the Aster DEX Treasury contract.
These are official transactions conducted by the team.
Please stay alert, ignore the FUD, and rely only on official Aster channels for updates.
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You made the transfer txn 16 days ago, never execute the buy. Then 16 days later annouced this before executing.
What's the plan? You got me confused there.
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"a bit more fair" really depends on what ticker you trade.
Crypto people can at least figure out what is the circulating supply for most tokens, but no human on earth know what is the exact outstanding shares of any DAT company/
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Stop being stupid there @cecilia_hsueh, seriously.
"Allocating" a user's fund to community because of your vague ToS is a bad bribing technique. OXFUN tried it once and the brand ceased to exist.
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just let us know how big is your coin bag so we know how much to discount what you say.
Before then, the discount is 100%.
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Absolute dogshit token $MET. At first glance it seems undervalued at $270M MC.
But if you look at their tokenomics, there is no cliff for ecosystem fund and team. Not even a 3 month cliff, just linear from day 1.
Team made it very very clear that they want to start selling on day 1, fearing the market liquidity might be gone later. This TGE is max extraction.
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The BTC Whale linked to Garrett Jin just started longing BTC and ETH 2 minutes ago. $32M notional size currently.
That's the only whale that I would trust my money on.
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Holy smoke, I am on a streak reading BTC moves, calling every local bottom/top and bull trap with receipts.
I don't think any one did this better for the past weeks.
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LOLOLOL. If the agreement is undisclosed offchain. Would I be surprised that every one gets a "structurally senior to all other lenders" agreement?
These guys really don't do background check on who's running their partner's protocol, do they?
Just ask around what's reputation of @0xlawlol, I am sure many OGs farming the Aero eco would have stories to tell you.
Just some fun fact, dude's discord handle is literally "law beats women". And you trust him with your money?
rate has spiked / xUSD depeg has worsened since Elixir came out saying they are structurally senior to all other lenders per a previously undisclosed offchain agreement
looking at 6figs of bad debt in this morpho market based on current xUSD market price (no liquidations as oracle price is hardcoded, so losses have not been materialized)
dying to know if MEV knew they were subordinate when allocating to this market. have a hard time believing that could be true. all around not a good look for defi tbh
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$XPL holders seek therapy pls
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Under the proposal, someguy says the money 120M should be used to buy back W.
LMAO he doesn't know where the money comes from
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这就是典型的瞎JB教。
首先，你这里列的凯利公式是二元结果(binary)版，只适用于结果非0即1的，比如赌球队输赢（甚至不能处理平局）。炒币炒股等连续性结果的要用(mu-r)/ sigma^2。
其次，用凯利不是“不会最快致富，但几乎是唯一不会破产”。恰恰相反，“凯利是致富最快，但是爆仓风险也很大的方式”。业内下注一般都用半凯利，或者1/4凯利。
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Surprising fact:
The number of non-dust $HYPE holders are steadily dropping since August.
If you've ever tracked the number of $HYPE holders, you likely see this, a steady growth line:
But if you would just apply a filter of >10 $HYPE, and see the "non-dust" holders, the story is very different:
Same story if you check the "middle-class" holders, it;s even worse: the decline is more consistent:
NGL. This is something I DIDN'T expect. We are so cooked.
Data source: @hypertracker
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@ManaMoonNFT did a great job there
OK so I actually dug into what happened with $XPL, the vaults, and the Wintermute accusations.
First, I wanted to see where the Plasma Team Vault was sending their tokens so I looked at each notable transfer from their vault.
Vault address: 0x000000000000000000000000000000000A11B004
I made a note of each wallet that received tokens from the vault and where it went exactly
A bit over 600 million $XPL tokens were sent to exchanges from a bit before until TGE up until today.
People were blaming Wintermute for the price action so I checked some of their wallets and they do indeed seem to at least be responsible for some kind of marketmaking on this coin.
Wintermute bybit deposit wallet:
0xe401A6A38024d8f5aB88f1B08cad476cCaCA45E8
The Wintermute bybit depo received a lot of tokens from many exchanges and seemed to have most of their activity starting around day 2/day 3 (around the time the chart topped)
Wintermute Binance deposit wallet:
0xEae7380dD4CeF6fbD1144F49E4D1e6964258A4F4
The Wintermute Binance deposit also received a lot of tokens from exchanges and seemed to have started marketmaking a bit on day 1, but the activity and size of tokens moved seemed to increase starting day 2.
These are not all the wallets most likely, as I didn't go any further.
As for the incentives for Plasma: There is about 3-4m of sell pressure per day from increased incentives for the first week. I doubt this was responsible for the price action we witnessed.
The presalers were also up quite a bit, but I also don't think that was fully responsible for how the chart played out so far.
Personally I believe that someone was TWAP selling an excessive amount of tokens that retail buyers could not withstand.
You can draw your own conclusions with the information here with what happened with Plasma.
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Insane returns by DeepSeek and Grok in just two days.
DeepSeek is literally developed by a quant firm for financial applications. Grok has access to the latest news and tweets.
So I’m not surprised these two are leading. Let’s see how consistent they can be in the coming weeks.
Alpha Arena is LIVE
6 AI models trading $10K each, fully autonomously
Real money. Real markets. Real benchmark.
Who's your money on? Link below
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Something is not right about $ENA.
This fresh wallet, presumbly insider, was funded with $1.2M on HL 45 hours ago and started max bidding $ENA right away.
Right after that, $ENA had a instant rally, from $0.38 to currently $0.45, up almost 20%. The account is now up $2.7M in just two days.
Crazy part? He didn't take profit, and instead rolled his profit into more longs. The account currently holds $20M $ENA long with a liq. price of $0.43
hypurrscan.io/address/0x579f…
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I turn slightly bullish here. I believe BTC hits a local bottom.
Brief Thesis: CME OI
CME BTC future has monthly seasonality. It almost alwasy has a OI low point at the begining of each month ,usually around the 4th.
It could be due to futures/options expirary date, IDK. Important thing is, empirically this almost always marks a local bottom, followed by a mini pump along with OI increase (see dashed vertical line in pic 1).
Mechanism of this is unconfirmed, but I suspect it is related to CME basis trade.
I am only slightly bullish, but not mega bullish as the basis is still kind of low lingering around 6% annualized (see pic 2).
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Why index perp though?
Don't want to be that guy.... But index is one of the the least attractive underlyings for perp contract for many reasons:
- Low volatility, less attractive for short term traders
- High cost to hold long term, so not attract for long term traders
- Hard to hedge or arb, so less attractive for MM or stats traders.
Basically I don't know who would trade this.
Equity perps are now live.
Trade [XYZ100] with up to 20x leverage 24/7, 365.
The XYZ US 100 Index tracks the value of the top 100 non-financial companies.
The first 100 users on the waitlist will get alpha access to trade.xyz today.
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Their tech is too gud. Someone please open a poly market for Aster exploit in 2025 already.
Earlier today, airdrop claims briefly opened ahead of schedule unexpectedly. The issue has been fixed now.
Existing users are not affected, and the airdrop will be opened as planned on Oct 14 at 12:00 UTC.
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Thank you @danielgenius81 !! Daniel is such an amazing person and artist!
So happy to create this beautiful piece for @Colasama
I feel super excited to have a new nft in my art style! We’re back!!
The @HyperliquidX style🤩🤩
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Counter trading ChatGPT can be more than just a joke. This shit is actually a counter signal with statistical significance.
If you assume the trade results to be random. It is HARD to lose 42 out of 44 trades, as hard as wining 42 out of 44. Statistially, that's 1 in 9.3 billion chance.
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Context on this incident:
- Accumulated TKN token and somehow got the mod role in Discord
- Running around other servers claiming himself to be the CFO of TKN project. When called out, sent Skibidi Toilet gif (It was max trolling, lol)
- Fast forward severa days, proceeded to one clip dump his TKN bag, liquidating everyone leverage farming it on Aero.
- People were left hang dry and started asking their "CFO" questions. Then he changed discord name to "deleted" so people don't bother him anymore.
This guy is a master of deception...
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Watching the $Zerebro show closely. Here's what we know about it:
Apparently someone at Gate must really like $ZEREBRO. Gate now holds about 23% of total supply, up from 10% just three days ago, while all other exchanges saw major outlfow.
The accumulation seems to have slowed down/stopped since yesterday.
OI remains high and flat. Insiders clearly have not closed their longs yet. OI is about 1x of MC, this thing is still subject to a massive squeeze and manipulation if the gate whale has a few more million cash available.
There is no conclusion here. Do what you will with the information.
-----
The insider wallets opened millie long on HL four days ago:
hypurrscan.io/address/0x8d0a…
hypurrscan.io/address/0x234a…
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geez... I was so stupid not to follow the news and deposited today. USDC withdrawal to OP stuck, their hot wallet runs out of USDC. Still some USDT though.
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WTF Trove annoucing a txn done 16 days ago
Trove has officially raised $20m to buy 500k $HYPE for HIP-3 integration
hypurrscan.io/address/0xebE0…
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You have a fair point. I am gonna review my trades and risk management and get better on it
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Jokes aside, there is an important lesson here (which cost me a lot to realize) :
The wallet linked to Andrew Kang was hedging his $ENA long with $BTC and $ETH shorts, presumbly to maintain "beta neutral".
Problem is, when you are trading an event. There is no beta for the asset. Or worse the beta could be negative and double rekt you.
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Why are you intentionally ignoring the fact that fee is not the only cost of trading.
Crossing the spread is another cost, dude is pointing at this, and you ignore it and talk like fee is the only cost.
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Thesis for short.
Context
- Binance only listed perp, not spot
- $400M MC is high for a meme on BSC
- It already had an insane 3x rally is one day
Micro-structure
- Super high positive funding. Given context, this rally was obviously perp driven.
- It wicked up but then instant down with meh volume
- At the same time, mid price went below index price for more than a minute
This set up almost guarantee MM unwinding (their basis trade).
I got lucky because I happened to be wathcing. It is not often you see a set up THIS CLEAN.
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My guess is that Hyperliquid team is trying to identify which wallets were used by the manipulator to self trade and profited from this.
It was easy to identify with Jelly Jelly since there hte manipulator made 0 efforst to hide his alt wallet. Unforunately, it is different this time.
There was another "attack" on HLP with multiple wallets going max long on POPCAT after a manipulated pump to $0.21.
These wallets were then all liquidated and HLP had to take on a $28M long. Eventually it was closed for a $4.9M loss.
I'd expect an update from Hyperliquid soon.
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Okay. Thank you @monad . Was not expecting 40k tokens as a permanent underclass, who didn't even touch the monad chain.
Free airdrop, no complaints
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How tf does the entire village knew it was Andrew K. frontruning a DAT and I didn't?
Where did you guys got these kind of news?
Something is not right about $ENA.
This fresh wallet, presumbly insider, was funded with $1.2M on HL 45 hours ago and started max bidding $ENA right away.
Right after that, $ENA had a instant rally, from $0.38 to currently $0.45, up almost 20%. The account is now up $2.7M in just two days.
Crazy part? He didn't take profit, and instead rolled his profit into more longs. The account currently holds $20M $ENA long with a liq. price of $0.43
hypurrscan.io/address/0x579f…
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The news side has been uber bearish. I don't know how one can long anything after reading these.
- Chinese gov. reinforces the crack down on crypto trading
- HK Exchange refused to approve DAT applications.
- Strategy getting B- rating from S&P
- ETH DAT ETHZilla mNAV goes below 1 and sold $40M ETH as part of $250M sale plan
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Sold this cat for 1500 HYPE, netting a loss of 200 HYPE.
I really like this cat. There is the fire Katana and the Grad cap, a blend of Martial art and Intelegence. But I do need some liquidity now, fairwell cat.
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FYI. The BTC whale is shorting more 4m ago.
hypurrscan.io/address/0xb317…
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I think "what they do with those shares" is the wrong question.
Ofc they will dump shares on retail. That's the sole purpose of any DATs.
The real question is what they do when the mNAV goes below 1. Do you buyback shares by dumping HYPE, or they diamond hand. That's the real question.
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再说着关于这事的恐怖细节：
MEXC在八月份的时候曾要求当事人肉身飞去马来西亚做真人KYC（即使人家已经做过ID，地址，视频等等多重认证）。
想想这用户要是选择不曝光，而是肉身去了，这人还在吗？这交易所是有多黑才敢提这种要求
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There isn't much OI left to be flushed. OI on HL is almost back to pico low level of the Oct 10. This could mean two things.
Good news:
Probably won't be a waterfall flush like Oct 10.
Bad news:
It will be slow bleed instead. There won't be a clear signal when people say "This shit is oversold, I am gonna all-in bid here."
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I couldn't care less about max pain. That's the most retarded concept invented by some financial journalists that had nothing to write about.
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别被当枪使了。Jeffy这是借机操作操控zerebro的价格。他明显话只说一半。CEX的上币费用来干什么我不知道
但是指控wintermute那个就搞笑：他曝光的“协议”就是个借贷协议，WM要求项目方借代币用作做市，这是标准流程，做市商做市都会要求借币来确保做市过程中尽量保持delta neutral的
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不太同意这事东/西方沟通方式的问题，就这就是流氓的沟通方式。这戏码上演过，后续发展都有剧本了。
就几个月前，OXFUN扣了JEFEDAO 的$1M，理由是当事人在做空一个meme的合约后，在现货市场砸盘，违反TOS。事情闹大以后交易所CEO Nico（也是被摆上台的，背后老板是三箭的Zhu Su）才认真谈判，私下谈判过程中要求当事人在删帖以外，必须持续发推正面宣传以消除影响，才可以返还$1M。并威胁不干就把$1M分给其他用户。
后来。。。。。就不赘述了，反正OXFUN这个品牌已经没了
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coinmarketcap is bad... but have you tried coingecko? It's absolutely the most biased dogshit info site.
Just see what they show as the top exchanges for BTC:
Left CMC / Right Coingecko.
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呃。。。连你也有这个误解，HLP不会接，也用不着接这清算的单。
上次jelly的事故有几层原因才导致HLP backstop。最重要的一是因为参数有漏洞所以没有触发ADL，参数已经修复了。二是JELLY本来就几乎没有流动性，外部做市商的量也可以忽略。
最重要这这两个条件现在都不存在了。
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That's some poetic and ass licking way of saying the price went +12% compared to public sale price
$PUMP is trading at just a ~12% premium to its cash on hand
$1.48B circulating mcap ($0.00042)
vs
$1.32B raised in july
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Biweekly port update Nov 8th:
Overview
$239K -> $269K: +12% in two weeks (No, I am not gonna annualize that)
Max drawdown: $120K, basically ~50%
I predicted the BTC down move almost perfectly but my port still down bad for a while because I shorted the wrong coins. (yea, I am a good macro analyst but such a dogshit trader, losing money when predicting market correctly)
Reasons for being bear: nitter.app/Colasama/status/198301…
Key Trade Review
- Shorting $VIRTUAL and $TAO
Knowing that crypto would go down, I decided to short something. Could have shorted BTC directly and make money, but I got greedy and wanted to max my beta. And hell yea I got burnt.
$VIRTUAL and $TAO showed up as good candidates as they scam pumped for no good reason.
I checked $VIRTUAL staking contracts, no one was staking while price pumping. So it was pretty obvious that the PA was speculative and everyone was ready to dump any time. Plus, I was never a fan of the staking mechnism of VIRTUAL, it is a straight up dumb mechnism IMO.
What I didn't expect, was that @Rewkang came out of nohere linking his robitic narrative to VIRTUAL and my $VIRTUAL short got raped.
Adding to the wound, $TAO also kept rising with the stupid halving + AI narrative. Luckily both garbage came down at the end, but the drawdown was painful.
Lesson:
I had too much short exposure to the AI narrative. Should have checked my sector exposure and diversify a bit.
There were also other zillion trades I made, but I am too lazy to write, so...
Hyperliquid.
The news side has been uber bearish. I don't know how one can long anything after reading these.
- Chinese gov. reinforces the crack down on crypto trading
- HK Exchange refused to approve DAT applications.
- Strategy getting B- rating from S&P
- ETH DAT ETHZilla mNAV goes below 1 and sold $40M ETH as part of $250M sale plan
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Bro, you are dumb to think the "trader" actually lost $3M on this. Who do you think took the short side of the $30M OI, and probably more on CEXs?
While Hyperliquid likely needs to reduce leverage for tokens like $POPCAT, it’s also important to zoom out and look at the bigger picture || @HyperliquidX
It appears someone tried to exploit $HYPE again, resulting in about $3M in losses for the trader and roughly $5M for HLP.
In reality, the system functioned largely as intended: you can’t expect HLP to make +$20M on 10/10 without occasionally taking a hit.
My first impression, similar to the Jelly Jelly attack, is that risk management could still use some fine-tuning, but it’s important to remember that these are not normal market behaviors.
Who in their right mind deliberately self-liquidates and loses $3M just to hurt a protocol ? 🤐
Waiting for the team’s update on this.
Hyperliquid.
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Think this is worth re-iterating. Normie would see last 24H volume/fee and think trading platforms are eating well.
But the volume/fee in the coming days/weeks would be really bad due to significant OI drop and much less (solvent) active traders.
This pertains to all trading platforms, not just HL.
If you hold spot, feel free to diamond hand. But if you are lev. longing... risk management is advised.
Just friendly reminder that after a deleveraging event like this happened, lot of OI got wiped out.
That usually means much lower volume in the coming days, and by extension much lower revenue for trading platforms, HL included. So you would see ATH fee today, but expect shitty numbers coming.
Jesus, I am already fudding my staked bag, after my perp got insta deleted.
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$ASTER Buyback napkin math
TL;DR: Long it and you will feel the pain.
Total fee to date: $225M *
Buyback executed: 100M token, cost about -$191M **
Unspent fee for further buyback: =$34M ***
Sell pressure on Oct 14 airdrop: 320M tokens, or $416M at the current price of $1.3
Net sell pressure $382M on airdrop day if aster team choose to use all remaining fee to buy back and absorb airdrop
-----
Note:
*Self reported daily fee break down
** $191M cost of buyback is assuming an avg. buyback cost of $1.91 (simple avg from 9-23 to 10-5, when most fee accrual occured)
*** $34M is an upper bound, since there would be users that choose fee refund instead of airdrop. But if they do so, that will reduce the sell pressure upon airdrop, so it is okay to just use 34M and compare to the full amount of 320M airdrop allocation
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