Founded by @LarrySabato. A nonpartisan unit of UVA promoting civic learning & engagement to improve democracy. Crystal Ball & more: linktr.ee/c4politics

Charlottesville, VA
We're thrilled to share @RepLizCheney will be joining us as a Professor Practice. "There are many threats facing our system of government and I hope my work with the Center for Politics and the broader community at the University of Virginia will contribute to finding lasting solutions that not only preserve but strengthen our democracy," says Rep. Cheney. @LarrySabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics, noted, “With democracy under fire in this country and elsewhere around the world, @Liz_Cheney serves as a model of political courage & leadership." @uva @presjimryan said, “Our students will have an incredible opportunity to learn from Liz Cheney, who has fiercely defended democracy as part of a distinguished career. I’m delighted that she has chosen the University of Virginia and the Center for Politics as a next step, and I very much look forward to working with her.” Read more: bit.ly/3L4V8Ij
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Former Rep. Liz Cheney is joining The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia as a professor of practice, the university is planning to announce today. More in Playbook PM: politico.com/newsletters/pla…
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We're thrilled to share @Liz_Cheney will be joining us as a Professor of Practice. "There are many threats facing our system of government and I hope my work with the Center for Politics and the broader community at the University of Virginia will contribute to finding lasting solutions that not only preserve but strengthen our democracy," says Rep. Cheney. Read more: bit.ly/3L4V8Ij @LarrySabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics, noted, “With democracy under fire in this country and elsewhere around the world, @Liz_Cheney serves as a model of political courage & leadership." @uva @presjimryan said, “Our students will have an incredible opportunity to learn from Liz Cheney, who has fiercely defended democracy as part of a distinguished career. I’m delighted that she has chosen the University of Virginia and the Center for Politics as a next step, and I very much look forward to working with her.”
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"The election process has improved every year & it's time for people to stop running it down...When a candidate screams voter fraud, it ought to be considered the equivalent of a concession speech," @LarrySabato told @Acosta, reacting to #BlakeMasters sowing doubt in #Arizona
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As first seen in @playbookdc: Our first Electoral College Ratings for 2024 are out today. Expect another highly competitive and close presidential election in 2024. Our ratings start with just 43 Toss-up electoral votes at the outset. Read the full analysis by @kkondik on @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: bit.ly/3NyLugo
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On today's Kennedy family endorsement of Biden, @LarrySabato tells @CNN: "The Kennedy family is making a very significant move, something that is uncharacteristic of [them] over many generations...They have their private disputes but they come out with a united front...It's very clear that a large majority of the prominent Kennedys who are still active in public life feel very strongly that Biden should win, but also that [RFK Jr.] represents a real threat via the Electoral College to Biden's second term."
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Final Crystal Ball ratings: -Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. -House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. -projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican or net Republican gain of 1 gov icont.ac/4Nxpy
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“It’s not the American way,” Center for Politics Director @LarrySabato tells @Acosta about Hitler-type remarks made by #DonaldTrump. “And it’s not the image of America that a large majority of Americans have.”
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What did Professor @LarrySabato have to say to the #Swifties? "It's terrific that [Taylor Swift] got involved. Too many celebrities are afraid of making an enemy." Sabato continues, "She could have her own SuperPAC... Why not have a SuperPAC aimed at young people, getting them to register to vote and to turn out? That would really have an impact."
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.@briansflood should immediately clarify this misleading @foxnews headline. So far @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball has correctly forecast all states called to this point including Ohio and Florida for President Trump. "Landslide" is not a word we used.
This headline is a little misleading. When the Crystal Ball put out our prediction, we never used the term "Biden landslide," though @LarrySabato is on track to nail 49 of 50 states in the Electoral College. And yes, most can agree there was polling error. foxnews.com/media/larry-saba…
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“I have a hard time even uttering the words election integrity without laughing, derisively.” @LarrySabato with CNN's @Acosta discussing how "election integrity" and other issues will affect the 2024 Election.
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"America saw [in Sen. Britt's response to the State of the Union address] an unreasonable person saying inaccurate, misleading things in a weird way," @LarrySabato tells CNN Newsroom Anchor Jim Acosta @Acosta. "It was weird, no question about it," replies Acosta.
3.11.24 1022 am ET CNN Newsroom Anchor Jim Acosta @Acosta w/ The director, UVA @Center4Politics and the Author of the Kennedy Half Century, Larry Sabato @LarrySabato and CNN Contributor @pbs @firinglineshow host, Margaret Hoover @MargaretHoover 10 +++++ 8 Minute Video
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Following Hunter Biden's guilty verdict on three federal gun charges, Center director @LarrySabato joins @CNN to discuss the political implications of the guilty verdicts: "The political effect of the conviction of Hunter Biden... is zero."
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We look forward to honoring Officers @SemperWry, @SergeantAqGo, @libradunn, Michael Fanone & Sandra Garza, partner of Brian Sicknick (posthumously) as Defenders of #Democracy on 9/23 @ 12 pm in @UVA Rotunda. Limited seating remains: bit.ly/3U3Nu2G cnn.com/2022/09/13/politics/…
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Welcome @GaSecofState Brad Raffensperger as newest @Center4Politics Scholar for the 2024-25 academic year to teach classes & assist in developing and presenting timely public programming. @UVA is fortunate to have you with us.
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Due to high demand, the location for tomorrow's forum with CNN's Jim @Acosta has been moved to the Wilson Hall Auditorium. Click below to register. eventbrite.com/e/the-fourth-…
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What a wonderful afternoon on the Lawn for the eclipse!
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Claim your seat FRONT ROW AT THE TRUMP SHOW tomorrow (Tuesday, April 7) as @Center4Politics' @LarrySabato interviews @ABC News White Correspondent @jonkarl on his jarring new book & 26 years of covering Donald Trump. Live Tues 4/7 at 3:30 PM Eastern at: livestream.com/tavco/frontro…
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Center director @LarrySabato to @CNN responding to @TIME's profile of former Pres. Donald Trump: "It's very Orwellian but this is not a novel. This is real life. One of the oldest lines in politics is, 'When they tell you who they are, believe them.' Donald Trump has not only told us repeatedly who he is, even before this campaign began, he has proven that he really is those things. He intends to be an authoritarian."
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"Donald Trump did not win that debate, Joe Biden lost it." @Center4Politics director @LarrySabato details his reaction to the first presidential debate with @CNN and @Acosta.
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Thank you to the Virginia Gentleman for joining us again in Pavilion IV to celebrate @uva Lighting of the Lawn. The weather may be frightful but your music is always delightful!
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Sen. @TimKaine tells @LarrySabato that he would support a 9-11 type commission to investigate the Capitol insurrection of Jan. 6. Stresses importance of safe and peaceful transition of power. piped.video/watch?v=qWNvCDNI…
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Truly gruesome photos of Senator Kennedy, post-autopsy, are included in today's release of RFK files. @Center4Politics @LarrySabato choose not to reproduce them in any way, and while we have no right to dictate to others what they do, we would urge everyone not to distribute them, out of deference to Senator Kennedy and the Kennedy family.
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The pick is in - Vice President Kamala Harris selects Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. @Center4Politics director @LarrySabato reacts to the selection with @Acosta and @CNN: "With the vice-presidential nomination, you do no harm... I don't think he (Walz) does any serious harm at all."
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2023 Gubernatorial races: -#Kentucky will likely see most vigorous 2-party competition. -In #Louisiana: “crazy things” could happen in #Republican primaries -In #Mississippi, #Republican primaries will likely see most action Read more by @JMilesColeman: bit.ly/3is3bmx
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“What she had to endure is astounding. Still, she stood strong in the face of unprecedented attacks to do what she felt was right for the future of this country.  And that’s why she’s here, as profile in courage and to pass on these important lessons in leadership.  You don’t see people making sacrifices like she did,” @LarrySabato welcomes @Liz_Cheney as the Center for Politics’ new Professor of Practice at a reception at Pavilion IV.
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New quantitative analysis by @SplitTicket_ places @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball at top for accuracy among all 2024 election forecasters rating House, Senate & Presidential races. AND @SplitTicket has "best-performing quantitative model in the industry this cycle". *Lower score indicates higher accuracy. Read more here: split-ticket.org/2024/12/06/…
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UVA Center for Politics scholar @costareports wears Center “Politics Is Everything” mittens we had custom made in #Vermont for him as he covers former president Donald #Trump’s testimony today at the civil fraud trial in #NYC. #TrumpIndictment #DonaldTrump
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"If not a deathblow [for American democracy] then a very damaging blow," says @Center4Politics director @LarrySabato responding to @CNN on the Supreme Court's immunity decision and the possible implications if Trump wins re-election.
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Max capacity crowd with @Center4Politics director @LarrySabato today during Reunions 2024. 50 years since Prof. Sabato's graduation, Class of 1974, UVA’s first fully coed class!
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“I have never seen a party change the way the Republican Party has changed,” says Center for Politics Director @LarrySabato speaking with @Acosta this evening.
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Today, Sept. 23rd noon-1:30 pm @Center4Politics' @LarrySabato & U.S. Sen. @TimKaine honor U.S. Capitol Police Officers & D.C. Metro Police Officers who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with first annual “Defender of Democracy” awards. Rotunda Dome Room.
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Center for Politics Director @LarrySabato with @CNN on Trump's bond reduced in civil fraud case to $175M: "Every time we try to put a period at the end of the sentence about Trump's trials, we end up with a comma, and we ought to remember that. That's what we're going to have, a series of commas all the way through November 5th."
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Continuing the political analysis following Hunter Biden's conviction, Center director @LarrySabato tells @CNN, "I have heard so many people... comparing and making equivalent the 34 felony convictions that Donald Trump had to the 3 felony convictions that Hunter Biden had. Hunter Biden is not running for president; the other guy is the nominee of the Republican Party."
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We're pleased to welcome two new seasoned @Center4Politics Scholars, broadcast journalist Jim Acosta, @Acosta, and former Trump White House aide Marc Short, @MarcTShort. Center Scholars offer guest lectures and help plan and participate in public events.
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New supply of @Center4Politics VOTE face masks are in. @LarrySabato models below 🙂. How to get 1 FREE while supplies last? 1. Subscribe to our FREE YouTube channel (UVaCFP) 2. Check out our new PBS docuseries pbs.org/show/dismantling-dem… 3. Send name & address to gac4t@virginia.edu
Here’s why professor Larry Sabato wears a mask. Do your part, for all of us.
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Scenes from our inaugural Defender of Democracy Awards ceremony today. @LarrySabato and the Center's staff honored officers -- and the family members of officers -- who answered the call of duty on January 6th. (Thanks to Sanjay Michael Suchak for the photos)
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On behalf of Professor @LarrySabato and everyone at @Center4Politics @UVA thank you Professor @Liz_Cheney for another great semester.
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Center director @LarrySabato on FL ruling putting abortion at the forefront of 2024: “This really is a terrible development for Trump and the Republicans generally, not just in Florida but also maybe in Arizona and Nevada…Anything that happens in a mega state like Florida, any horror story that may be coming forth because of this six-week ban beginning in May, that’s going to be a national story so it’s going to affect voters everywhere.”
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In last night’s high-stakes state Supreme Court race in #Wisconsin, Democratic-aligned @janetforjustice comfortably dispatched former Justice Daniel Kelly, giving liberals a 4-3 majority on the court. 2023 featured the second highest-turnout April state Supreme Court race of the last decade, falling only behind 2016. A liberal state Supreme Court could revisit redistricting-related matters, to the benefit of Democrats, although there are a lot of moving pieces. With that in mind, we are downgrading our rating for southeastern Wisconsin’s 1st District from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Read more by @kkondik & @JMilesColeman on @LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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With a number of swing states becoming more competitive, @Center4Politics director @LarrySabato details to @CNN that the energy and enthusiasm behind Kamala Harris has tightened the race: "It's really a matter of getting people activated and dedicated, and determined to vote... Well, Kamala Harris is doing that. That's where the difference is."
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Welcome to what portends to be a sleepy but explosive presidential election year. In a new analysis for @LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball, @kkondik shares what to expect as primaries and caucuses begin. We’ve decided to stick with our 2024 Electoral College Ratings, at least for the moment. These have been our ratings since summer '23 & reflect a close & competitive #election but also one in which Biden is in better shape than what polls show now. Read more: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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The @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball is experiencing heavy traffic today, and we forecast similar conditions over the coming days. We apologize for the delay and thank you for your interest. Politics is a good thing!

ALT Traffic Jam GIF by memecandy

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Looking at the history & current state of democracy in the U.S., preserving it will be a feat no less significant, no less difficult than establishing it in the first place. Catch up on @Center4Politics new @PBS series "Dismantling Democracy" free online. pbs.org/show/dismantling-dem…
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"WAR" author @realBobWoodward and @Center4Politics Scholar @costareports join us on Sunday, Nov. 10th 2-4PM at @UVA Colonnade Club. Tickets required. Sign up here: centerforpolitics.org/event/…
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Celebrating #PresidentsDay by remembering President Jimmy Carter's mid-1980s visit to @LarrySabato's class. Were you a student in that class? We'd love to hear your memories as we wish the former President well.
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.@LarrySabato: How did you deal with negative tweets from Donald Trump? "I'm asking for a friend." Paul Ryan: Let it roll off your back. Sabato: I'll tell my friend. livestream.com/tavco/PaulRya…
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Due to popular demand, posting one more wish to @uva & beyond for a happy & peaceful holidays from the Virginia Gentleman @LarrySabato’s Pav IV.
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Happy Birthday to @Center4Politics Scholar Robert Costa @costareports, Chief Election & Campaign Correspondent for CBS News, seen here at our event with @SenSanders earlier this year.
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"We have to do what we can to remind people what happened and why it matters," says @uva Center for Politics Director @LarrySabato welcoming folks to a private screening of our new documentary "Defenders of Democracy: The Thin Blue Line" which focuses on #January6.
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Speaking with @CNN, @Center4Politics director @LarrySabato offers some words of wisdom regarding the polls, "When a poll strikes at the essence of reason, disregard it! There will be another poll tomorrow... another 10 polls by next weekend."
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"A rising tide lifts all boats," says @Center4Politics director @LarrySabato to @CNN on the growing enthusiasm behind Vice President Kamala Harris reflected in recent polling, but notes, "Everybody should be cautious... people can shock you!"
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"The Shock of January 6th" LIVE now. Join us. First guest will be CNN's Jim Acosta @Acosta. livestream.com/tavco/theshoc…
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Center Director @LarrySabato discusses with @MSNBC where RFK Jr.'s support might go following his decision today to (sort of) "suspend" his Independent campaign and endorse Donald Trump.
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Beyond the 2020 elections, what matters most for the future of democracy in this country and around the world? All new @Center4Politics @PBS three-part docuseries "Dismantling Democracy" now available on @Amazon @PrimeVideo.
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Harvard Political Review recognized @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball as the #1 election forecaster in 2020. Please help us continue this FREE resource with a tax deductible gift to the UVA Center for Politics on this Giving Tuesday. 👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 bit.ly/3mEQgdu
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For helping us celebrate 25th anniversary of @UVA @Center4Politics & break ground on new building, we thank (!) our participating faculty, scholars, board members, presenters & panelists: @Liz_Cheney @OfficialMLK3 @GovernorWilder @cindymccain @GaSecofState @presjimryan @TikiBarber @C_C_Krebs @haddadmedia @CISAJen @TaraSetmayer @AGTheodoridis @Redistrict @AndriaMcClellan @chucktodd @DonnaFEdwards @SarahLongwell25 @jbouie @PaulBegala @JamesCarville @amyklobuchar @margbrennan @SusanPage @BobbyScott @JennMcClellanVA @uvausingers @LarrySabato @DavidIRamadan @jonkarl @kkondik & an army of dedicated student interns.
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Just how much does the vice-presidential candidate matter? As Kamala Harris nears her decision, @Center4Politics director @LarrySabato joins @CNN to detail what VP candidates bring to the table: "If you can swing even one state with a substantial number of electoral votes (by the VP selection).... This could be the election."
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NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @kkondik and @JMilesColeman on the race for the Senate, where Democrats are still in the game but Republicans have the upper hand centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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RIP Sen. Bob Dole. We celebrate your life and service to the nation, and remember fondly the times you spent with us at the @UVA @Center4Politics. Below is @LarrySabato's introduction from our mock Constitutional Convention of Oct 2007.
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Center Director @LarrySabato to @CNN on Hur's testimony to Congress today: "The whole point of this hearing was to give Republican partisans...the opportunity to say when Trump's turn comes in court...to say the only reason Trump's on trial is because that Democratic justice department is going after him. That's what this is all about politically. From a political standpoint no one is going to convince me that this highly intelligent, able man, Robert Hur, did not realize the political implications of including his judgment that Joe Biden was an elderly man with a poor memory. He knew exactly what the public reaction would be and the political reaction would be.
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@Center4Politics Scholar Jim @Acosta is with the Center today! Director @LarrySabato joins Acosta NOW (jimacosta.substack.com/) to discuss the politics of the day. Later, former J6 Officer Michael Fanone joins Acosta for a live taping of "The Jim Acosta Show" tonight at 7p ET. Watch: piped.video/live/aQTi62MKiOo
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We were proud to meet with 7 of the 9 outside consultants on this important project. @LarrySabato is available to console @uva students and alum as we work through this change to be more reflective of what we stand for.
Today, @presjimryan announces an important change at the University that reflects what we truly stand for – and what stands for us. #GoHoos
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"Never underestimate the ability of one event to excite you and get you engaged in politics,” Professor @LarrySabato @uva tells @UVaSummer_JTerm students in a course with us this summer sharing a poster from a #JFK campaign stop in Norfolk, Va he attended when he was 8 years old on the Friday before Election Day 1960.
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Event with @realBobWoodward and @costareports MOVED to larger venue. Tickets reopened at link below. Join us.
"WAR" author @realBobWoodward and @Center4Politics Scholar @costareports join us on Sunday, Nov. 10th 2-4PM at @UVA Colonnade Club. Tickets required. Sign up here: centerforpolitics.org/event/…
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What an incredible semester & year at the Center for Politics! We are deeply grateful to all of our partners, scholars, colleagues, @UVA students, and supporters who make our work meaningful and impactful. We look forward to continuing to lean into politics and working to strengthen our democracy in 2024. @Liz_Cheney @GovernorWilder @jonkarl @Acosta @DevalPatrick @jbouie @jdickerson @margbrennan @costareports @libradunn @BarbaraComstock @TaraSetmayer @C_C_Krebs @mikepompeo @ToddPillionVA @jonesjay @laloalcaraz @DarrinBellArt @AnnTelnaes @Wuerker @ClintHill_SS @PatrickRuffini @DavidIRamadan @presjimryan @LarrySabato @ken_stroupe @kkondik @carahong @JMilesColeman @megheubeck @WorldLearning
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What's the key to preserving democracy? @Center4Politics' newest Professor @Liz_Cheney on that & more in BIG start to new @Center4Politics Professorship of Practice. Read more below & watch special "Fireside Chat" wi/ @LarrySabato: livestream.com/tavco/convers… news.virginia.edu/content/li…
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Polls are open for 2 more hours! You better follow Professor @LarrySabato! Thanks to @uva students at SERV for golf carting voters to the polls on this beautiful #ElectionDay2023!
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Sen. Bernie Sanders to Speak at Center for Politics Forum at Old Cabell Hall on Thursday, March 2. icont.ac/4OWur
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"Almost certainly @Sen_JoeManchin would pull more votes from #JoeBiden. When you examine his record, he has a better chance of throwing the electoral college to #DonaldTrump - btw something he said he's concerned about doing. If somehow #JoeManchin elects #Trump, his name will be blackened in history & he might want to consider that," Center for Politics Director @LarrySabato told @FWhitfield on @CNN. Watch full clip:
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The 21 #Republicans who did not vote for #KevinMcCarthy on every roll call generally, but not exclusively, come from uncompetitive districts. Read "The Political Profile of McCarthy’s Detractors" by @kkondik on @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Join @Center4Politics' @LarrySabato @UVA @presjimryan @timkaine @SpeakerRyan @margbrennan @donlemon @TaraSetmayer @PaulBegala & @C_C_Krebs online Jan. 6th 6-8PM (ET) for inaugural edition of Democracy Dialogues. Sign up free 👇👇👇 eventbrite.com/e/democracy-d…
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Today we honor Officers Harry A. Dunn, Caroline Edwards, Michael Fanone, Sergeant Aquilino Gonell, Eugene Goodman, Daniel Hodges, Howard Liebengood (posthumously), Jeffrey Smith (posthumously) & Brian Sicknick (posthumously). Defenders of Democracy on Jan 6, 2021 and always!
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Biden 321 - Trump 217. @LarrySabato @kkondik @JMilesColeman discuss the final Election 2020 ratings in an all new VIDEO edition of Sabato's Crystal Ball. Available now. 👇👇👇👇👇👇👇Click here👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 piped.video/watch?v=RMzamCrT…
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Professor @Liz_Cheney and former Australian Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm with @LarrySabato today. What a class!
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While supplies last, order your free @Center4Politics VOTE mask today and please subscribe to our free YouTube channel UVaCFP. Click here to order: centerforpolitics.org/cfpmas…
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Do-Nut forget to #vote parties happening now at Madison Hall steps, and EVERY @UVA dorm! Free @CarterMountain apple cider donuts! #hoosvote #vote #electionday #uva #wahoowa Our thanks to Carter Mountain Orchard for staying up all night to make 9000 fresh donuts!
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Tomorrow, Sep. 23rd noon-1:30 pm @Center4Politics' @LarrySabato & U.S. Sen. @TimKaine honor U.S. Capitol Police Officers & D.C. Metro Police Officers who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with first annual “Defender of Democracy” awards. Limited seats: eventbrite.com/e/defender-of…
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We've updated #GeorgiaRunoff to Leans Democratic. Most indicators point to a Warnock advantage & it wouldn't be shocking if he ends up improving on 51%-49% margin he notched 2 years ago. More on the rating change by @JMilesColeman on the Crystal Ball: bit.ly/3XY3fu5
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We're so grateful to @CarterMountain, our Fall interns, more than 40 @uva student volunteers & a partnership with UVA Housing & Residence Life for making "Do-Nut Forget to Vote" parties possible. We had a blast celebrating #ElectionDay! nbc29.com/video/2023/11/07/u…
UVA hands out donuts, encourages students to vote this Election Day nbc29.com/2023/11/07/uva-han…
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Center for Politics director @LarrySabato joins @CNN with @Acosta to discuss the renewed calls for President Biden to step down as the nominee: "He's receptive (to stepping down)... Well, being receptive and actually doing it are two different things."
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Anyone recognize this young fella? He's turning SEVEN-OH this month and you're invited. givecampus.com/schools/Unive…
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On behalf of our director @LarrySabato and all of us at @Center4Politics, THANK YOU for your generous support and good wishes celebrating Larry's 70th. 263 generous donors in 35 states, DC & abroad contributed $82,000+ to the Center. We're grateful to you. givecampus.com/schools/Unive…
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We will miss our friend, Clint Hill, and the many visits with students at @UVA @Center4Politics. His lessons and legacy of leadership will continue to be a key focus of the classes we teach @UVA. Rest in peace.
IN MEMORIAM and RIP: Clint Hill, Secret Service agent who jumped onto JFK's car after the president was shot, dies at 93 cbsnews.com/news/clint-hill-… via @CBSNews
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#Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) signed a bill into law this week that creates a new congressional map featuring two majority-Black districts, ending a nearly two-year saga over adequate Black representation in the state. Crystal Ball House ratings for LA-6 change from Safe Republican to Safe Democratic. Read the new analysis by @JMilesColeman on @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Nearly midnight on the East Coast, but our dedicated @Center4Politics interns continue their good work assisting @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball with election analysis and data collection. Thank you @JohnSMichaelD (pictured)...but you still have to come to class tomorrow.
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