@Penn @Wharton Budget Model provides nonpartisan, research-based estimates and analysis on the fiscal impact of public policy.

Philadelphia, PA
Our latest briefs analyze the policy proposals of the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump campaigns for their economic, budgetary, and distributional effects over the next 10 and 30 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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#PWBM believes that the macroeconomic effects of the Build Back Better Act will decrease GDP by 0.2% by 2031, and 0.3% by 2040. Government debt is set to increase by 1.5% by 2050. Read more: whr.tn/3kVMFZU
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#PWBM estimates that forgiving federal college student loan debt will cost between $300B and $980B over the 10-year budget window, depending on details. About 70% of debt relief accrues to borrowers in the top 60% of the income distribution. Read more: whr.tn/3dSQbn8
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This statement stands true especially in a democracy. But what if you still have questions about the #economic impacts of the #government policies. Worry not, #PWBM website has got your back. See: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… @USAFacts #Money #Tax #Trade @Steven_Ballmer #Reform
"Americans need more trusted, transparent, and understandable information about their government and its expenditures." - @Steven_Ballmer #opengov #opendata #votercenter #GovAccountability
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(2/2) Notable differences in revenue estimates include the 15% minimum tax on book income and increased IRS funding by $80B over the next 10 years. The White House estimated $325B and $400B, respectively, while $PWBM only estimates $195B and 190B in revenues, respectively.
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#QUESTIONHOUR Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wants a 70% top rate on income over $10M. #PWBM is estimating how much that would boost tax revenue. WRITE YOUR ESTIMATE below. The closest one to PWBM's gets featured on my twitter profile. @AOC #AlexandriaOcasioCortez #Tax @USAFacts
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Hello! Welcome to @BudgetModel, the official Twitter handle for the @Penn @Wharton Budget Model. We have all the latest updates on #PWBM results, analysis, methods and general goings-on. However, if you’re hooked on Kent Smetters he is @KentOnMoney.
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Excited that Dr. Diane Lim is joining @Penn @Wharton Budget Model as senior advisor! She brings a wealth of experience and will advise #PWBM on matters related to public outreach, business development, and strategic planning. @economistmom #economics budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Excited that Dr. Diane Lim is joining @Penn @Wharton Budget Model as senior advisor! She brings a wealth of experience and will advise #PWBM on matters related to public outreach, business development, and strategic planning. Sharp focus and economics. @economistmom
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Are you one of those 61% of people who turn to data to form an opinion on a policy? If yes, you will not be disappointed by #PWBM's analysis based on reliable #data. Check out all the issues PWBM addresses: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… #Finance #Economics #Analysis #Money #Policy #USA
"When forming an opinion on a policy issue or preparing for an election, a majority of Americans (61%) turn to data" - Check out the State of the Facts poll 2018: usfct.org/2e06f
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NEW: #PWBM analysis of the entire Biden policy platform! In the first ten years, we estimate $5.35T in new spending and $3.375T in new tax revenue. But by 2050, the full platform decreases debt by 6.1% and boosts output by 0.8% See the full analysis: whr.tn/biden_analysis
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#PWBM predicts both the tax and spending provisions of the American Jobs Plan would increase government debt by 1.7% by 2031 but decrease debt by 6.4% by 2050. GDP would also be decreased by 0.8% in 2050. Full brief: whr.tn/3wynctN
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Indexing capital gains to to inflation would cost $102B over 10 years. 63% of gains to to the top 0.1% #PWBM @jimtankersley @arappaport @NYtimes @riccoja nytimes.com/2018/07/30/us/po…
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Since #SocialSecurity is a concern for many, here is #PWBM's @SocialSecurity simulator. With multiple parameters and their effects on different factors, this #Simulator is a winner. Visit: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… #Tax #Money #Budget #Funds #Federal #Government #USA #Calculator
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#PWBM projects that recent tax reforms proposed by the House Ways and Means Committee would increase the incentive of U.S. firms to shift intangible investments and profits to foreign countries with a tax rate below 20.7 percent Read more: whr.tn/2YdMK3b
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NEW: Our #coronavirus policy simulator lets you see how lifting lockdown orders and reopening businesses will affect cases, deaths, GDP, and jobs for the U.S. AND for each state! Try it for yourself: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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President Biden has proposed raising the current excise tax rate on stock repurchases from 1% to 4%. We estimate for US shareholders, this would flip the historical tax preference from stock repurchases to distributing earnings as dividends. Read more: whr.tn/3Jwh0Lb
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According to @USAFacts in 2015, commuters spent an extra 42 HOURS stuck in #traffic. Will the proposal of the #WhiteHouse to spend money on #infrastructure help? Read more while you are not stuck in traffic this winter: whr.tn/2SF7hVx #USA #FederalTax #Tax #PWBMin2018
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#Immigration is a hot topic of discussion in the #UnitedStates currently. Read #PWBM's analysis on "The Effect of Immigration on US Economy" to get a better understanding of the dynamics behind it whr.tn/2yZCjiG #Federal #immigrants #Economy #Money #Finance @USAFacts
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If you are a stakeholder in a company, you sure know what a 10-k is. But ever wondered how the government was performing? Well @USAFacts has a solution. Here is their latest report on the governments #10K : usafacts.org/reports/2019/go…. Comment your thoughts below. #gov10k #PWBM
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#Penn #Wharton #Budget Model finds that indexing #capitalgains for #taxes would cost $102B over the next decade. Those with high-incomes benefit, but the share of taxes paid by #income group remains the same. #NationalDebt #PWBM budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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(1/2) Earlier today at 9AM, the White House released a set of revenue options for budget reconciliation that the White house estimated to total $1,995b over 10 years. Our estimates of that same package is only $1,527b, $468b less than the WH. Read more: whr.tn/3BmP45m
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Congrats to @USAFacts on their new site and exciting new work on the numbers behind the State of Union's most pressing issues! Use it before tonight's #SOTU to get the latest data on the economy, incomes, health, and more: usafacts.org/state-of-the-un…
New year, new website, new products! If you love data and cool visuals, check out our new State of the Union in Numbers & let us know what you think💪usfct.org/sotu #usafacts
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.@Penn @Wharton Budget Model powers data @USAFacts. What does your government do with your tax dollars? Register for a data-driven portrait of America with @Steven_Ballmer on April 17th. live.usafacts.org/
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Are you interested in learning about the impact of #Immigration on the #US Economy? From August 5th - August 9th #PWBM will have its #ImmigrationWeek wherein we’ll post new briefs, have quizzes and organize polls on Twitter. Participate to get a shoutout and stay tuned for more.
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.@jasonfurman cites our analysis of the Biden platform in this op-ed for @WSJopinion; You can read the full analysis and several follow-ups on the #PWBM website: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
My latest @wsjopinion explains why the Biden tax plan—and the economic program it funds—would help ensure we have more shared growth. wsj.com/articles/bidens-tax-…
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Will new federal dollars for #infrastructure achieve a high-speed economy, higher wages and GDP? It depends, #PWBM new report finds. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Do #Taxcuts even make sense if the gas prices are going to be so high? Do you gain or do you lose? #PWBM can tell you. Read this brief: whr.tn/2SNw1Mx #Midterms2018 #ElectionDay #PWBMElectionSpecial #tax #gasprices #Budget #Economics #lowincome @USAFacts @Wharton
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(1/4) @WhiteHouse issued a response to #PWBM’s recent analysis of their #infrastructure plan. #PWBM explains why each major criticism raised by the White House is incorrect. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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That's me addressing the worrying issue of #nationaldebt. Read this piece by @whartonknows to learn more about where the current debt path will lead us in the future. #USA #Debt #Economics #Economy #Government #USEconomy
Is it time to worry about the national debt? "Under the current debt path, we currently estimate that the government will have almost no reasonable options left, outside of debt default, in about 25 years,” says @KentSmetters #PWBM knlg.net/2UCgaRb
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I host a weekly radio show named "Your Money" nitter.app/BizRadio111/status/965…
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Can your marital status affect the type of your #employment? How does marriage in women affect their self employment status? Well #PWBM in its new interactive article answers these questions. Click here: whr.tn/2EdabxX #USA @USAFacts #Marriage #PWBMin2018 @whartonknows
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Should we run up the debt until we see inflation? When inflation comes it is way too late. Stabilizing debt/GDP increases GDP. Check out the #PWBM estimations in the report I talked about at #FiscalSummit today. @Wharton @ojblanchard1 budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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What will your tax bill be in 2018 and beyond? @WSJ provides a tax calculator, powered by #PWBM wsj.com/graphics/republican-…
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#PWBM estimates that the Inflation Reduction Act would reduce non-interest cumulative deficits by $248 billion over the budget window with no impact on GDP in 2031. The impact on inflation is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Read more: whr.tn/3zH8z#
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PWBM estimates that the House SALT proposal raises a net $28 billion over the budget window, with a gross cost of $291 billion through 2025. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
I was close! Latest proposal is to not for short-term repeal, but it would set the cap at $72,500 starting in 2021 and going through 2031. No score yet, but I would bet that's pretty close to "self-financing."
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Marty was dissertation adviser to scores of students, including me. Incredibly generous with his time, he pushed students to think about the economics intuition of their ideas. The teaching of sensible economics stands the course of time, and Marty was a steadfast defender of it.
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Save the date to watch #PWBM's First Annual Policy Forum - we’ll walk through new tools for evidence based policymaking. Sign up for the live webcast on June 22. @Penn @Wharton #Budget Model @USAFacts @Steven_Ballmer @whartonknows budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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NEW #PWBM ESTIMATE: As the Senate continues #coronavirus negotiations over the CARES Act, we project that the bill's emergency "recovery rebate" would cost $272 billion. The bottom quintile of families would see a 46% boost to their after-tax income:
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Married women are at least 3% more likely to have a child than unmarried women. Simultaneously marriage rates among women 25 to 29 declined 15.9% since 2006. Additionally, women who complete 4 years of college are less likely to have a child. Read more: whr.tn/3yyWS4G
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How educated are the newly entered immigrants? #PWBM presents data to answer that question. Read more: whr.tn/2NbnZZA #immigration #immigrants #education #USA #data #policy #federal
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Never fear, non-Philadelphians! This Thursday's #PWBM #WealthTax event will be livestreamed for all to enjoy. Tune in to see @gregleiserson, @NatashaRSarin, and @richpriz discuss what we know about taxing wealth! Register to watch: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
How would a #wealthtax work in the U.S.? How much money could it raise and what are the trade-offs? Join us November 14 at @Wharton for a discussion of these questions and more with @NatashaRSarin, @gregleiserson, and #PWBM's own @richpriz RSVP here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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#PWBM recently analyzed the impact of the Build Back Better Act on inflation. We project the spending and taxes in the Act would add up to 0.2% to inflation over the next two years and reduce inflation by similar amounts later in the decade. Read more: whr.tn/3sqdw4G
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#PWBM estimate that forgiving federal college student loan debt will cost between $300B to $980B over the 10 year budget window, depending on details. About 70% of debt relief accrues to borrowers in the top 60% of the income distribution. Read more: whr.tn/3dSQbn8
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Married women are at least 3% more likely to have a child than unmarried women. Simultaneously marriage rates among women 25 to 29 declined 15.9% since 2006. Additionally, women who complete 4 years of college are less likely to have a child. Read more: whr.tn/3yyWS4G
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Important announcement: It’s about time that this account fully transition into the official PWBM handle (@BudgetModel). The switch will happen this Thursday, October 24th. I’ll still chime in on economics and personal finance from my personal account @KentOnMoney.
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#BREAKING!!! The #WhiteHouse recently made some remarks on #PWBM's analysis of the #TCJA. Here is my response to the critique: whr.tn/2H1bDFR Read and let me know your comments below. #TaxPolicy @USAFacts #Tax #Economics #Policy #Reform #GDP
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#WelcomeErikaJames as the new dean of @Wharton! The PWBM team is excited to meet you.
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Just now at #EconHHCon: low-wage men used to work much more than high-wage men. But this relationship reversed, as @mdoepke shows, as married women enter the labor force. One question: how are cash side-hustles treated in the data? budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… #PWBM #EconTwitter
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SOUND ON!!! Simply changing how you organize your business can help you save on the amount of taxes that you pay. But how? Watch the video and check out #PWBM's interactive business tax calculator: whr.tn/2RGeA2G @USAFacts #Economics #Tax #FederalTax
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Is the #LIFT credit proposed by @SenKamalaHarris really cost effective? How is it going to affect the #GDP. Read #PWBM's BRAND NEW analysis here to know: whr.tn/2JiRXdR #LIFTCredit #SenatorHarris #Economy #Finance #Money #Income #Tax #USA @USAFacts #labor #economics #law
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.@USTreasury report says IF there is more growth #taxreform costs less. But #PWBM projects real GDP will increase at most 0.10 percentage points. Not enough for the bill to pay for itself. whr.tn/2jPwPQU
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Wow @USAFacts this is a great source of information for voters. #PWBM too is working on providing information for voters. Our #PWBMElectionSpecial series covers issues to keep you abreast for the #Midterms2018
Any idea who might represent you in Congress after the midterm elections? Add your ZIP Code to our Voter Center and find out before November 6th! usafacts.org/voter-center #opendata #opengov #midterms2018 #ElectionDay
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Today Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the #TaxCutsAndJobsAct will pay for itself. #PWBM finds the bill will increase debt $1.9B-$2.2B by 2027. @CNBC cnbc.com/video/2018/08/28/mn… budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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#PWBM estimates that forgiving federal college student loan debt will cost between $300B and $980B over the 10-year budget window, depending on details. About 70% of debt relief accrues to borrowers in the top 60% of the income distribution. Read more: whr.tn/3dSQbn8
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#PWBM has published TWO BRAND NEW BLOGS. According to @USAFacts, in 2015, the #federal government paid more than $220 billion in interest. Read our first blog where we use our dynamic OLG model to make projections of interest paid on the federal debt here: whr.tn/2sA41A5
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#Wharton receives it's largest ever funding of $50 million from the co-founder of #Apollo, Marc Rowan. This money will also be used to support #PWBM's effort in analyzing #government spending and #revenue bloomberg.com/news/articles/… @Penn #Tax #Economics #Analysis @Wharton
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Oh wait, did you know #PWBM has a #simulator which analyzes the effects of #immigration on the #economy? Here is how it looks like: Want to use it? It's simple. Click on budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… #federal #PWBMEstimates #data #tool #policy #federal #law #reform #government #USA
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Join us and @AEI on 5/13 in DC for a deep dive into the US fiscal trajectory, its economic effects, and reform options. Our expert panels from academia, government, and industry will provide valuable insights. Register here to attend in person or online! aei.org/events/federal-debt-…
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We estimate that inflation in 2021 will require the average US household to spend around $3500 more in 2021 to achieve the same level of consumption of goods and services as in previous years. Read more: whr.tn/3e3Zi10
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The White House's preliminary estimated revenue effects of selected provisions in its budget reconciliation package estimate a total of $1,995B over 10 years. This is $468B more than our #PWBM's estimate of revenues, which amount to $1,527B. Read more: whr.tn/3BmP45m
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Have an innovative policy idea? An idea that needs more attention from the policy community or that's starved for fact-based analysis? Submit it to #PWBM's Democratizing the Budget Process contest! Deadline is July 31st: whr.tn/budget_challenge
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Policies in the past affect the #policies in the future. @USAFacts has taken care of the past and #PWBM estimates the numbers associated with these policies in multiple scenarios. The #Immigration simulator will tell you how: whr.tn/2J5D6U4 #Tax #GDP #Growth #Employment
From its first #immigration policy until now, the US gov has shaped what it means to be (or become) a citizen. Our timeline summarizes the ebb and flow of gov immigration policies & programs over the past 170 years: trib.al/ZQI1Kce #ThursdayThoughts #opengov #opendata
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... PWBM estimates these proposals would raise $144B over 10 yrs, offsetting some revenue losses in other Harris campaign proposals, but lose $308B compared to the Biden FY 2025 budget. Visit our election center for full details: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Did you know that a change in net annual immigration affects the educational attainment of the US population? About 50% of the legal immigrants who arrived since 2014 have at least a bachelor's degree only a third of native born Americans have one. #PWBM @profzeke @PaulWisemanAP
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We would like to introduce to everyone #PWBM's Dataview! Have you ever wondered how employment has changed over time? Or how stock returns vary with different economic factors? Find answers to your economic questions with dataview! Check it out: whr.tn/3tnhHOQ
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When Ireland closed the "Double Irish" in 2020, one effect was that US multinationals repatriated more foreign earnings. However, fiscal benefits to the US have been offset by tax incentives from TCJA. Read more here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Replying to @rodangol @USAFacts
#PWBM's report uses data from the Current Population Survey to show that recent immigrants are more educated than ever. That fact didn't come through in our original post. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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#Jobs are on the top of the people's agendas when voting for a party. So what is The Jobs and Infrastructure Plan for America’s Workers proposed by the #Senate #Democrats like? Read here: whr.tn/2RDBnIS #Infrastructure #PWBMElectionSpecial #PWBM #Economy @USAFacts
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That's some exciting data. But what percent of these people are educated? Don't worry, #PWBM has you covered. Click here to get an answer to this question: whr.tn/2NbnZZA #immigration #immigrants #education #USA #data #policy #federal @uscensusbureau @USAFacts
In 2060, the projected U.S. Hispanic #population will reach 111 million. See more facts for #HispanicHeritageMonth here: go.usa.gov/xP4Cn
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Our NEW analysis finds that the #CARESAct will soften the drop in 2020 Q2 GDP from 37 percent (annualized) to 30 percent Additional details, including implications for unemployment and jobs, at the link! budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
NEW from Penn Wharton @BudgetModel: Short-Run Economic Effects of the CARES Act — Penn Wharton Budget Model budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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How would a #wealthtax work in the U.S.? How much money could it raise and what are the trade-offs? Join us November 14 at @Wharton for a discussion of these questions and more with @NatashaRSarin, @gregleiserson, and #PWBM's own @richpriz RSVP here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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A $30 #carbontax per ton of emissions? #PWBM projects that it could raise $1.6 trillion of additional revenue and increase GDP by 2.2 percent by 2050. How though? Read all about it in our latest Carbon tax brief here: whr.tn/33XQHGI @Wharton @USAFacts
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Thank you everyone for sending all your questions for Mr. #AlanGreenspan. #PWBM has a winner for the best question and it is @Jeff3Richards. You can find the question below. The video with Dr. Greenspan's answer will be up soon along with some other great videos. #USA #economics
Replying to @BudgetModel
I’d love to hear Mr Greenspan’s thoughts on the potential negative impact from pressures to artificially increase Minimum Wage to levels that may work on contradiction to purposed goals. Does he feel that poverty is better treated w other tools. I’ll hang up and listen.
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What changed in 2007 with #immigrant education? The country-composition of U.S. #immigration shifted suddenly around 2007. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… @Penn @Wharton #Budget Model #PWBM #TuesdayThoughts #opendata @uscensusbureau
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Tired of debates based on bad data? Watch @LAClippers Owner, Steve Ballmer, on Friday, June 22 from 9:15-10:30AM ETdiscuss his new tool to make sense of government data with @Serwer.” #opendata #PWBM budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Happy New Year! To kick off 2021, #PWBM revisits our analysis of the Biden policy platform. We estimate $5.35T in new spending and $3.375T in new tax revenue. After 30 years the platform decreases debt by 6.1% and increases output by 0.8%. Full analysis: whr.tn/biden_analysis
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Tune in today at 9:00 AM ET for #PWBM's First Policy Forum. We'll walk through new tools for evidence based #publicpolicy #blockchain #opendata #infrastructure #cyber #nationaldebt #budget #economics budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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#PWBM’s brand new analysis of five major #tax proposals included in Senator Michael Bennet’s “The Real Deal” projects that these would raise over $4.5 trillion dollars over the 10-year budget window. Read more: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… @Wharton @SenatorBennet @USAFacts
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Want to ask something to #AlanGreenspan? Well then send in your best questions by replying to this post and we will pick the most interesting one to ask him tomorrow. Plus you also receive a shout out during the event. So hurry up and get asking NOW!!!! #AskAlanGreenspan #PWBM
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#PWBM estimates that the federal estate tax would have generated 9 times more revenue in 2019 without the changes in 2001 & 2017 ($85B counterfactual vs $9B actual) and 100 times as many taxable estates (127,000 counterfactual vs 1,275 actual). Read more: whr.tn/3SeLH9Z
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On August 5th at 10:00 AM ET, @whartonknows will broadcast a discussion by Efraim Berkovich of #PWBM, Marshall Meyer of the @Wharton and Mary Lovely @melovely_max of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University @maxwellsu on the impact of #trade #tariffs. whr.tn/2YjxtfP
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#PWBM recently published a blog projecting the evolution of #UnauthorizedImmigrants in the #UnitedStates. Read it here to learn about the factors driving unauthorized immigration and a lot more: whr.tn/2REvyMm @Wharton @PewHispanic @mhugolopez #PWBMImmigrationweek
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#PWBM estimates that the White House’s Build Back Better reconciliation framework would increase spending by $1.87 trillion over the 10-year budget window and revenues by $1.56 trillion over the same period. Read more: whr.tn/2ZR3lKV
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At 12:30 today, I'm joining a Wharton MBA panel on tax reform. Speakers include Cathy Koch and Sahang-He Hahn. Watch the live-stream below! lnkd.in/eJHv7DA lnkd.in/e7uphHT
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Do you find yourself constantly wondering what would happen if the U.S. eliminated all itemized tax deductions? …no? Is that just us? Who are we kidding, everyone wants to see the budgetary, economic, and distributional tables in #PWBM's latest analysis: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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#PWBM's core mission is really to move from ideology to a much more rational discussion about the economic impact of #publicpolicy changes. Learn about predicting the outcome of policy changes below. @Penn @Wharton #Budget Model @jctgov @socialsecurity knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/…
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#PWBM's latest analysis breaks down mortality rates over time by race, gender, and education—while men and women see similar mortality advantages from more education, this advantage is larger for White people than for Black people. See the full post: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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#PWBM took a look at 3 options for infrastructure plan outcomes.
Did you know that 9% of all US bridges were considered structurally deficient in 2016? Is the US infrastructure lagging behind? Check out what 3 options for 200 Billion of federal investment in #infrastructure could do: usfct.org/optiocdf4 #wharton #TuesdayThoughts #penn
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Why hasn’t the #tradewar noticeably reduced US GDP? #PWBM shows that trade wars can actually boost GDP in the short run while reducing GDP over time relative to no #trade war. #tariffs @WhiteHouse budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Flattening a different curve: Using cell phone tracking data, we show that the relationship between physical encounters and the spread of the #coronavirus has weakened over time — social distancing is working! Read the full analysis: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed…
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Higher #gasprices in 2018 offset nearly 50% of the gains from recent #taxcuts for the bottom half of the #income distribution. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed… @Penn @Wharton #Budget Model #PWBM #economics #publicpolicy #TuesdayThoughts
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#Trade has always been a hot topic of discussion when it comes to economic #growth. But ever wondered how the #tradepolicies recently enforced by the #government affect the #economy? Read this article by #PWBM to know: whr.tn/2NzBPFo #WhiteHouse @USAFacts #Tax #economics
We import $564 billion from #China, our top trading partner in imports. Learn more about US trade with USAFacts: imgur.com/a/3qkTSz1 #NAFTA #USMCA #trade #opendata #dataviz
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