15-year veteran, focusing on macro-trading BTC. Sharing observations on Crypto & Marco's economy and providing statistics in the hope to aid your strategy.
Mars
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Mar.16th, 2022
⚠️ Market will be bumpy when it's close to breakout
Let's keep watching at $39876.76 $BTC & Fed's decision on interest rates
🧐See the detailed analysis here👇
medium.com/@BitMidas/bitmida…
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2/3 Yesterday's net outflow of funds was about $230 million, and the support and resistance levels shifted down, with both support and resistance moving down to $28271 and $29539 respectively. Long-term consolidation continues. See updated tp 👇
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📢 #BTCUSDT Analysis June 9
Yesterday, there was a net outflow of funds, estimated at around $80 million. The long/short ratio remained around 2, with no significant overall changes in the intraday data. The center acts as resistance and the market tends to explore the lower range. During the process, attempts will still be made to reclaim the center, while the lower range will be widened. Now $26,021 support is weak. The area between $26,634 and $26,715 below the center also acts as resistance.
In the short term, the market is still operating weakly within the range and faces uncertainty and risks related to US regulations. In the medium to long term, the current process of balancing long and short positions is still ongoing. BTC and ETH's overall structures remain intact and are battling at a crucial area. Control your positions and wait patiently.
Tokens mentioned by the SEC had their data structures disrupted on a monthly level. If you hold positions in such tokens, consider reducing them to mitigate risks.
On the macroeconomic front, the initial jobless claims recorded 261,000 people last night, significantly exceeding expectations and previous figures, which is positive for reducing inflation and negative for the US dollar. From a macro perspective, this is good data and favorable for expectations of rate halt. Crypto market is in the shadow of US regulations risks. As I mentioned earlier, the market will reverse upon settlement of this lawsuit. The Senate demanded the US Department of Justice investigate Binance's misleading behavior. If the Department of Justice gets involved, the subsequent uncertainty and risks will increase.
Follow @BitMidas and be tuned to our subscription channel on ETH in the near future.
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📢 #BTCUSDT Analysis June 1 📈📉
Yesterday, BTC failed to break above $28,305 and experienced a pullback. The price was suppressed between $28,305 and $28,156, breaking the short-term balance based on previous intraday supports. It reached a low of $26,839.01 but found support at the key support level of $27,083-$26,836 mentioned earlier. Short-term data and trends appear unstable, requiring stabilization above $27,602.
There was a significant outflow of funds, estimated at around $550 million, which offset the inflow from the weekend's rebound. The market is currently unstable, with the long-short ratio on multiple platforms favoring shorts. A breakout and stabilization above $27,602 are needed to bring stability. Although the current price is not far from it, the early rebound only reached $27,350, indicating weak upward momentum. If the key support at $26,836.36 is broken, the price may retest the $26,226 area. Short-term volatility is expected to remain weak. Monthly data has been updated, with a downward shift in the center. The overall market is still in consolidation.
The Fed released the Beige Book, revealing a deterioration in future economic growth and a cooling in employment and inflation. Instead of following the original plan, the Fed will now be guided by data, taking into account monthly economic, employment, price, and inflation data to determine monetary policy. The probability of a pause or rate hike in June has reversed, with the probability of a pause in June now exceeding 70%. This expectation may change with other data. Personally, I believe that if subsequent data is positive, the pause in June should be temporary, and future rate decisions will be based on data, not a predetermined pattern. The pause will continue until there is a significant decline in inflation.
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Apr.14th, 2022
📐Price is trying to break out of the triangle between $42199.63~$39760.99, with a maximum diversion between $42409.07~$39475.43.
🎯Keep a close look at the triangle and the support at $38263.17.
#BTC #daytrading
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Signals were given on Friday.
#bitmidasrecap #BTCUSDT
#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | June 10th, 2022
$BTC Box: $32084.67~$28288.38
🎯 Center: $29850.35
The general movement is pro-shorts, while more spaces are opened for both sides in the box.
Monitor the seasonally-adjusted CPI to be released at 20:30 UTC+8.
FYI👇#bitmidasdaily
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Our chief analyst @qiuyue_analyst shares his opinion on how macroeconomics impact BTC and cryptos as a whole. Read the digest and hopefully, it'll help you get prepared for the extreme uncertainty. 🌪️
medium.com/@BitMidas/fed-is-…
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#Aptos is definitely a promising asset. What's your idea on the performance of $APT / $USD?
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✔️Comment down below
We're #Givingaway free $APT to 10 lucky followers.
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | June 13th, 2022
$BTC Box broken down - mentioned last Friday.
CPI is higher than expected, which strengthened the expectation of adding interest rates.
The market will be running under pressure.
The next key support is $22309.06
FYI👇#bitmidasdaily
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Mar.14th, 2022
Congestion range: $43912.8~$37017.70
Keep an eye on the center at $39615.5
Multiple testing against $37140~$37017.70
⚠️First target below adjusted to $35351.31~$35009
🧐See the intraday analysis here👇
medium.com/@BitMidas/bitmida…
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Weekly Digest on the Macroeconomic Trend with Bitmidas.
CDS soared, with mounting concerns on US debt default. As the tightening cycle is approaching the end, the market becomes even more sensitive.
medium.com/bitmidas-bitcoin-…
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#Bitcoin Dec 26, 2022
The day range is between $17056-$16308 today.
The downward pressure force BTC to go down prudently, testing and forming an initial part of the bottom.
See updated entry points. 👇
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Oct 24, 2022
Intraday movement is ready to challenge higher targets.
The consolidating range now is between $20755.26-$19248.58.
Monitor $19985.96.
See Details👇#bitmidasdaily
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1/ #bitmidasrecap
Yesterday, #Bitcoin broke down the key support level of $27817 and dropped to a lowest of $27262. It weakly rebounded after testing the lower support at $27219. The rebound did not stand above $27817, which results in weakness.
#Bitcoin2023 May 8
2/ Due to the failed support at $29663, capital did not follow through, leading to a net outflow of around $360 million. Short-term resistance at $29846 continues to suppress the price, with support at $29014-$29183 becoming the range for consolidation.
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Dust settle first, and this short-term bull run could see as high as 25k.
If dovish views continue, the next target is 31k. 📈
Hoping for more upside. 🤞 #Bitcoin
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Apr 28th, 2022
A breakout could happen anytime in 1-8 days.
🚨Range: upper at $42734.05, center at $40433.92, lower at $37460.23.
Keep looking at how the price goes against the center.
Very important msg, read the chart. 👇
#BTC #bitmidasdaily
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#Bitcoin2023 May 8
2/ Due to the failed support at $29663, capital did not follow through, leading to a net outflow of around $360 million. Short-term resistance at $29846 continues to suppress the price, with support at $29014-$29183 becoming the range for consolidation.
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#Bitcoin2023 May 18
1/ Yesterday, BTC showed a weak intraday trend, dipping to $26544 but finding support near the intraday support level.
2/ The market stabilized after Biden's commitment to the US debt ceiling, easing risk-avert sentiment. BTC and US stocks reversed their short-term trends, but BTC failed to break through the resistance level at $27671.
3/ The trend is gradually stabilizing, currently facing resistance at this level. If $27671 is broken today, the price may surge towards today's intraday resistance, and the long/short ratio could drop to around 1.2.
4/ The market shift its focus back to inflation and economic data. Expectations of a rate pause in June remain high, but further data releases are still needed for the Fed to make a final decision.
#Bitcoin2023 May 17
$27,000 lost its supportive function as a result of too many tests yesterday. Short-term weak consolidation. Today a narrow range is between $27,389 and $26671. Debt ceiling and interest rate hikes are still uncertain. Set protections.
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$ETH Mar 9, 2023
Intraday range:
$1474/$1497/$1515 - $1566/$1592/$1620
Heavy resistance at $1666
Key support at an area between $1455 - $1423.
#CryptocurrencyMarket #ETH $ETH
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We provide daily target points for trading across all market conditions. #bitmidasrecap #BTCUSDT
#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | June 13th, 2022
$BTC Box broken down - mentioned last Friday.
CPI is higher than expected, which strengthened the expectation of adding interest rates.
The market will be running under pressure.
The next key support is $22309.06
FYI👇#bitmidasdaily
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#Bitcoin Mar 24, 2023
BTC maintained at $27,000, rebounded to $28,868 due to positive news from the US stock market, with Secretary Yellen reassuring banks and providing additional liquidity. The overall trend remains bullish with net inflows and support levels moving higher.
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#Bitcoin Feb 14 2023
The key support today diverts to $21361.59. BTC continues running in the box. The expected CPI annual rate is 6.2%. Scenarios are displayed in the chart.
Only by breaking out the box and taking hold of $22667 could it ends the correction.
Updated TP 👇
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11/Currently, more and more market institutions believe that the Fed will take the lead in easing the balance sheet shrinkage around March and abandon the tightening stance at this interest rate meeting.
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6/On the macro front, Fed officials, including Kashkari, have hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes, though 2024 rate cuts are still expected. ECB officials forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2024. Keep an eye on macro data and central bank statements for further insights.
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Oct 26, 2022
Battleground broke up. Capital inflow has pushed up target points, lifting the consolidation range.
Taking hold of the intraday support will bulls keep challenging resistances.
See Details👇#bitmidasdaily
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#Bitcoin2023 May 6
The market is still recovering and consolidating around the $29539-$29663 resistance. The core resistance is now between $32-35k. While the market is still waiting for the next CPI data, the overall trend is bullish as liquidity is expected to increase.
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#Bitcoin Jan 6, 2023
Unaffected by the ADP data, BTC performed quite well, testing the starting point of the weekly resistance at $16987. It keeps chopping between the daily target range before widening to $17486~$16226.
#bottomseeking 👇 #cryptomarket
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Sep 9, 2022
Breaking up and holding above $19784.57-$19913.87 will BTC reclaim key support and avoid a second slide.
However, a downward risk is not released.
Keep monitoring the tapering process.
Details & TP👇#bitmidasdaily
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#Bitcoin Dec 5, 2022
Data released last week supports the positive sentiment for non-US assets. BTC gradually moves upward, with the key resistance shifted to $17820.63. $17427.78 sees an easy breakout.
Generally, BTC is under a long-term downtrend.
TP & Details👇
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Oct 27, 2022
Strong short-term bull run.
The consolidation range is formed between $20782.41-$20831.62.
Breakout the long-term support channel requires a test.
The market expected next interest rate hike: 75bp(87.3%),50bp(12.7%)
TP👇#bitmidasdaily
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5/According to sandbox deduction, there is a significant gap in fund flow that needs to be filled after the monthly data update, and if the height can be expanded, there is a high probability that this gap be filled at a high level in March and April.
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#bitmidasmacro ☕️
Inflation keeps decline, and we're approaching the end of the Fed’s dot plot. The market is over optimistic, while new risks emerge on the real estate.
As liquidity's pushing up the risk assets, we need extra cautious in strategies.
medium.com/bitmidas-bitcoin-…
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#bitmidas macro weekly, signaling a recession
medium.com/@BitMidas/macro-e…
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#Bitcoin2023 Apr 11
1/ BTC broke up the resistance of $29732 and is trying to sustain the $29000 level, with a net inflow of around $1.3 billion (potentially including virtual funds) and a bullish market trend. Long-term investors remain optimistic.
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#Bitcoin Dec 2, 2022
BTC rejected from the formulated resistance at $17455.27. It’s trying to seek the bottom while testing resistances. Still heavy resistance above without liquidity increase.
Range today: $16615.81-$17455.27
High volatility upon unemployment
TP & Details👇
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#Bitcoin Jan 31, 2023
The weekly-framed diversion didn’t follow up, and BTC consequently fell back in correction above the weekly uptrend. There’s room for correction extending to $20906~$20777.
High volatility in FOMC week. Set protections.
TP Updated👇
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#Bitcoin Feb 21, 2023
The bullish trend continues on the day frame. Today the intraday support is $24636~$24483. The key resistance of $25331 weakens, another test could be a breakout.
#bottombuilding 👇See chart for details
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#Bitcoin2023 May 17
$27,000 lost its supportive function as a result of too many tests yesterday. Short-term weak consolidation. Today a narrow range is between $27,389 and $26671. Debt ceiling and interest rate hikes are still uncertain. Set protections.
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6/ Macro-wise, US labor market and inflation-related data are crucial for Fed's decision on initiating the first rate cut since 2024. Weekly initial jobless claims showed minimal change, failing to trigger cuts. Swiss National Bank initiates a rate cut, a start of a global trend.
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#Bitcoin Feb 17, 2023
The gap is filled by more capital inflow. The mid-to-long-term bullish trend continues. On the day frame, it’ll test and take every resistance step by step. 1-2 days are required to recover the loss of the bulls.
#bottombuilding 👇See chart for details
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$ETH Feb 24, 2023
Intraday range: $1614- $1675/$1709
key resistance diverts to 了$1735~$1749
#cryptocurrency
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6/Macrowise, while the US February ISM non-manufacturing index cooled down, S&P Global Services PMI edged up, suggesting rising price pressures. Some institutions, like BNP Paribas, worry about the Fed's rate cut frequency. Rate cuts are expected in the latter half of 2024.
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The Federal Reserve wants to temporarily provide a large amount of liquidity to offset the panic, and take this time window to continue tightening and avoid recession, but they are facing a delimma. #bitmidasmacro
medium.com/@BitMidas/macro-e…
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Now the question is how do you identify truth from all the noise? @cz_binance
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#Bitcoin Mar 10, 2023
Silicon Valley Bank crashed and drag down the S&P500. BTC saw a capital outflow of over $5 billion. Day-frame bearish trend continues. $17034 is the bottom of this small bullish trend. More negative news in the air.
Updated TP 👇Long-term #bottombuilding
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With a pessimistic outlook of a possible recession, many markets began to seek the bottom. A lift on lockdown in China will improve the condition of the global supply chain. #HOPE
medium.com/@BitMidas/macro-e…
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | July 4th, 2022
The consolidation range narrows down to:
✡️$22112.96~$18267.50(also the key support of the month), centering $20455.18.
The box today: $22599.73~$18625.55
FYI👇#bitmidasdaily
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Oct 28, 2022
The breakout needs to be tested. The center remains the axis of oscillation.
When intraday support is not broken, it’ll hold up on the center several times. Otherwise, it’ll break down to $19600.41.
See Details👇#bitmidasdaily
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Apr 26th, 2022
A range before a breakout has formed: upper at $43357.55; center at $40949.95; lower at $38369.03.
Daily Traders: 🔼$40128, $40949; 🔽$38369.03
Read the chart. 👇
#BTC #bitmidasdaily #DYOR
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Don’t forget to subscribe to the temporally free newsletter (above on profile) for a profound macro overview.
Who’s ready ‼️
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#Bitcoin Dec 30, 2022
A short-term support has formed at $16453, and a mild resistance at $16760. The former is quite near the breakeven point at $16203.
Breakout is hard to happen above 18k or below 15k. Macro matters still.
Updated entry points👇 #bottomseeking
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | June 28th, 2022
BTC fluctuates within the box in the downward channel and forms an unsteady triangle...
✡️The box range is depicted in the chart.
It follows the movement of long-short flips but weakens in strength today. See charts.
👇#bitmidasdaily
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#bitmidasrecap Range high and lows to aid your trading strategy.
1/ Yesterday, BTC saw narrow range fluctuations with relatively low volume, failing to break the key level of $27,817. The price is expected to oscillate between $28,087 and $27,182 in the short term, with $28,087 likely to put temporary pressure on the price.
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#Bitcoin Mar 6, 2023
Short pressure concentrates on $22821. Today the range is between $22821~$21930. The $21000~$20330 area gathers long positions. The sentiment is more or less cautious under a hawkish expectation.
Long-term #bottombuilding
Updated TP 👇
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#Bitcoin Mar 13, 2023
The concern of a liquidity crisis of SVB triggered a short-term depeg of USDC and BTC plummeted to the 19625 support. Fed shore-up-confidence move boosted a bull run today. Taking hold of $22986 will enhance bulls.
Updated TP 👇Long-term #bottombuilding
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | May 9th, 2022
#BTC is still gaining speed and moving quickly down the slope, forming a bearish impulse wave.
$32211.78 is the next target of the slide.
Reference to the points👇#BTC #bitmidasdaily
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6/Overall, in the short term, uncertainty remains high, showing a continued direction toward consolidation. Long-term prospects involve challenging new structural highs, with the $57,000 region exceeding the upper boundary of the bullish channel (currently at $54,371).
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Mar.18th, 2022
Dawn Before The Breakout! Center at 40106.56!
Keep a close look at the movement between 41879.55~40106.56 within 3 days from now.
🧐See today's full analysis here👇
medium.com/@BitMidas/bitmida…
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It's not really a problem, follow @BitMidas and join multiple DAOs. #TwitterLayoffs
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Mar.31st, 2022
CCI and RSI hit the support and bounce back from yesterday, possibly leading to a test on the half-year resistance.
⛳️Keep watching:
Half-year resistance $48645.1
Support of the indicators
👇 #DYOR🎯#intradaytrading
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Apr 25th, 2022
BTC to choose the direction very soon.
Daily Traders: 🔼$40739.24 🔽$38369.03
Read the chart. 👇
#BTC #bitmidasdaily #DYOR
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📢 #BTCUSDT Analysis Aug 22
Yesterday, BTC struggled below the $26562 resistance, displaying a generally weak rebound in a bearish pattern. The highest point reached was only $262568.42, with a feeble rebound. The lowest point was $25812, but it didn't break below the support at $25738 from the previous day. The intraday structure remains weak, marked by rebounds and bearish movements in this range, with minimal changes in positions. Funds continue to flow out, indicating that the short-term market has yet to stabilize.
Yesterday, there was an estimated net outflow of funds of around -$200 million, and the fund outflow has not stopped. The short-term market still hasn't found stability. Intraday data still shows weak movement between the $26565 resistance and the small support at $25747. The structure remains bearish, making it easier to fall than rise. If it rebounds above $26565, there will likely be a subsequent pullback between $26565 and $27080. If the price can stay above $26565 until the next day after this drop, the short-term trend will start to recover, but the trend won't reverse entirely. However, if the price falls below $26565 and can't regain it the next day, the short-term market will still be bearish and unstable.
Looking at the long term, today's data suggests a need to reclaim $27695 this month for some stability in the structure next month. The key support at $25026.73 is crucial, and if it breaks, the structure for the next month becomes fragile. In the scenario analysis, the next month or the month after could see a decline to the range between $23000 and $21000. Overall, the long-term market is still in the process of balancing long and short positions within the oscillation. However, in the past three months, bullish structure have been eroded, funds are diverging, and the oscillation center has shifted lower. On the macroeconomic front, monetary policy is still tightening. The long-term oscillation may continue until there is a clear turning point.
On the macroeconomic front, there is growing dissent among Federal Reserve officials. Hawks generally believe that strong economic data and low unemployment rates may lead to a rebound in inflation, while doves argue that continuing to raise interest rates carries risks. Many economists now believe that continuing the hike is risky. Monetary economist Will Luther suggests that interest rates above inflation by 1.14% are restrictive, and they are currently too high. There may be no need to continue taking risks. This Friday, FOMC voter Harker will be interviewed, and Powell will speak at the Global Central Bank Meeting. Their statements may provide insights into the future path of monetary policy.
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#Bitcoin Jan 11, 2023
Short-term upward testing continues. The intraday resistance diverts to the $17630~$17735 area. The weekly trend could be reversed if the $18099~$18561 area is flipped into support based on our updated data.
#bottomseeking 👇#Cryptos #Bullish
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#Bitcoin Mar 14, 2023
BTC's price continues to rise as the US banking sector faces system risk, leading to a market reversal. Breakout on $22986 led a rally towards $24207.
See updated TP 👇Long-term #bottombuilding 🧵1/2
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On the macro level, despite the Binance settlement, no imminent collapse is anticipated. Short-term ETF and rate cut expectations may not be affected.
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📢 #BTCUSDT Analysis July 3
Last Friday's PCE data was below expectations, causing BTC to initially retreat after testing resistance for 2 weeks. However, it rebounded and successfully broke out above the $30,000 level, forming strong support. Short-term trading remains within a narrow range, with resistance yet to be taken.
Net inflow was around $600 million. The long/short ratio remains around 1. Monthly data has broken through the $30,000 level, but trend structure adjustment may require more time or significant upward movement. The resistance that has suppressed prices for 2 weeks has partially shifted to the $30,673 region, indicating a potential breakthrough. Overall, the trend remains bullish.
Short-term trading remains within a narrow range, temporarily hindered by the resistance of around $31,461. However, the daily trend support has moved to $30,011, indicating the development of a support platform. The aim is to test the resistance around $31,461. Mid-term funds have pushed up to the $28,731 region, and the long-term structure has covered the $24,803 to $25,000 range, strengthening support. The trend is oscillating towards the second critical resistance at $35,225.
On the macroeconomic front, the US May core PCE price index recorded 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 4.7%. Consumer spending also declined, indicating a lack of economic growth momentum and early signs of stagflation. This situation may deepen the entanglement between inflation and the economy, leading institutions to adjust their forecasts. July is seen as a month with a high probability for rate hikes, yet potentially the last one.
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4/From the time structure deduced from the sandbox, whether it can break through and stabilize the structural height and transform it into support is a key factor in whether the height for this month can continue to expand.
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5/ Today's price action signals fluctuation within a limited range, with short-term direction yet to stabilize. ETF net outflow in early trading adds pressure. Market remains bullish long-term, with quarterly data pending update, suggesting a gap in sandbox simulations.
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#Bitcoin Dec 16, 2022
The short-term key support diverts to $17203-$16858. The hawkish remark has wiped out the benefit from CPI stats. Before a real relief on the macro, BTC would likely to keep chopping between the technical points.
Updated TP & Details 👇
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‼️Announcement
To lower reading barriers, we're going to simplify charts on the daily analysis and add more interesting topics around crypto, macro, or businesses. Some of the TPs will be released in our community, which is going to be built soon.
Stay tuned with us @BitMidas
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#Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Oct 25, 2022
Yesterday BTC held intraday support, which creates conditions to challenge the battleground.
The consolidating range now is between $20769.83-$18826.36, center at $19032.92.
Monitor $19985.96.
See Details👇#bitmidasdaily
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📢 #BTCUSDT Analysis July 31
Throughout the weekend, BTC traded narrowly between the short-term resistance at $29,614 and the minor support at $29,000. It's still within this range ($29,614 resistance has weakened, intraday resistance has moved up), and recently entered consolidation. The $29,000 support area is stronger than before, and data has shown some improvement.
Funds saw a slight overall inflow over the past three days, approximately $670 million, but the trading volume has decreased. In the short term, both long and short positions are in a small range of consolidation with relatively low volatility. Data and trends have yet to stabilize. Today's data is slightly better, with some improvement in short-term technical indicators. If the trading volume does not increase significantly and this situation lasts for another 2-3 days, an up-break will be more likely. However, short-term data changes rapidly, and if it falls back below $29,021 during the consolidation process, the market will continue to be suppressed by intraday resistance. Currently, the mainstream market trend is still bullish, and the overall market is in the accumulation phase on the left side. The current dense fund accumulation area is around $27,477-$26,031, with about $7 billion in non-comprehensive statistics.
On the macro side, the US core PCE price index for June recorded 4.1%, significantly lower than previous values and market expectations. This sharp decline in a key indicator, which the Federal Reserve focuses on for price evaluation, implies that there is no reason for further rate hikes. Economic data has shown relative resilience. Fed's shifted into observation.
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👀 #Bitcoin Trend Analytics | Apr.2nd, 2022
🔥Half-year resistance ($48645.1) will be a stronghold for both sides.
CCI and RSI30 are recovering from the support;
RSI, KDJ, CCI will move within the channel (see chart)
See price points👇 #DYOR #intradaytrading
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