Co-Founder of @BritainElects. Senior Data Journalist for the @NewStatesman. Borough Councillor for Chester's city centre, West Cheshire
United Kingdom
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Sorry, uh, what's with the cross on the lectern?
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I'll always remember the day I had to call my student landlord to explain why I'll be a few days late on rent (work being late on payment), and the anger and incredulity in her voice while she was... horse-riding stays with me to this day.
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Labour do well when the Lib Dems do well. I question the second rate hot takes that North Shropshire has negative implications for Starmer.
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November
>Bank of England forecasts inflation will halve in 2023
January
>Rishi Sunak pledges to halve inflation in 2023
ok
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Head and shoulders above anyone in this government for conveying strategy, is Darren Jones
Darren Jones, "If I believed nothing would change.. I wouldn't be sat here today.. I would go off and do something else, other than sit in front of audiences on national TV trying to set out how we're trying to change things"
"Are things hard? They absolutely are.. But you have to lift your head.. You're trying to improve people's lives.. To make Britain a better place to live in and to work"
"You have to believe in our democratic system otherwise you lose all hope" #BBCQT
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CNN: former president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, how do you plan to defend yourself?
Poroshenko:
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Pick one:
> Having your name chanted at Glastonbury
> Beating the Tories on the economy
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"We can win elections, and make change, or we can pursue apparent political purity in our party. But make no mistake, we can't do both"
— Starmer at ScotLab's annual conference just now
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How the wards that make up the Hartlepool constituency voted on Thursday:
Lab: 42.8%
Con: 34.1%
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We have High Wycombe modelled as a Labour gain with an 8pt majority
sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/0…
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Irritating and yet endearing that both Gareth Southgate and Marcus Rashford have a better grasp of how to properly own and elevate English identity with the politics of social justice than the current Labour party.
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Second year politics student at debate society vibes, too confident by half no matter how stupid the statement
“There was a time when there wasn't any maternity pay and people were having more babies.”
@KemiBadenoch suggests statutory maternity pay is "excessive".
@KateEMcCann | @AdamBoultonTABB
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No sign of protest in the hall. No dissent. Labour's members rise to sing the national anthem. New era? Feels it.
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This is insane. Turnout 50%. Up on 41% in 21. Young Plaid organiser telling me of all the texts and DMs from apolitical friends that they're turning out to stop Reform.
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Don't know why Sunak thinks tarring Starmer with Corbyn will work. Public notice the party isn't what it used to be, and don't make the associations Westminster is desperately trying to do. Who's advising this guy?
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Me for the NS:
By obsessing over immigration, the Tories are chasing phantom voters. Salience has fallen. Attitudes have shifted. There isn't a UKIP vote to squeeze - this isn't 2015 anymore 👇
sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/0…
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Reform's Winsford borough councillor Mandy Clare who equates the 🏳️🌈 flag to child abuse was today escorted from Winsford Pride, resisted, and ended up arrested and in the back of a police van following intimidation and attacks on drag acts.
Video src:
facebook.com/share/v/1CXqvg5…
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Today has reminded me of the mock-up posters Labour had for Brown's snap election. Would work well today.
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Okay, so this table is pretty disingenuous stuff from The Times. Qualification requirements for standard courses against foundation are just... not comparable.
My middle son is hoping to study economics at uni from September - this makes my blood boil: Cashfor courses: top universities recruit foreign students on low grades
thetimes.co.uk/article/c19d0…
Community note
Foundation courses last one year and aren't comparable in their entry requirements to an honours degree. They are aimed at students who don't have the formal qualifications for degree entry, including those whose overseas qualifications aren't recognised by UCAS.
prospects.ac.uk/applying-for-u
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Think I'm so used to the numbers pointing to the Cons on 110 that I haven't quite appreciated how dramatic an about turn that really is. Datavis is important
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Discontent because some MPs believe the flag is a figure of the far right.
Well, it's gonna stay that way if MPs don't let Labour try to reclaim it.
Grow up, is my advice.
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Losing the West Mids gives Con MPs anxiety, but losing North Yorkshire doesn't? You are not serious people.
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18pt majority for Labour in Wakefield is significant. Better than the national polls, but a touch under the two constituency polls done in the seat. IF reflected nationally, it would give Labour a comfortable majority in the Commons.
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Windsor Castle and Eton now represented by Lib Dem councillors... sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/0…
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Real eye opener. Labour underperform my model by 10pts, Reform overperform by 10.
❗ Reform GAIN from Labour
Longdendale (Tameside) council by-election result:
REF: 46.6% (+46.6)
LAB: 25.0% (-28.8)
CON: 12.4% (-9.7)
GRN: 12.1% (-12.0)
IND: 3.9% (+3.9)
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~21% (-7)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
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So last year Sunak made £1,970,992 through various means (ministerial salary, investment income, etc) and paid various taxes that amounted to £446,430 - 22.7%
... meanwhile I, a graduate, pay an effective tax rate of 25.6%. Christ.
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The Labour MP for Canterbury said at party conference last month she would leave Labour if Eddie Izzard was allowed on an all-women shortlist.
Labour voters disagree with her.
sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/1…
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Bit of a shocker, this. The last time the ward voted Labour was 2012, and back then it was won with 38% of the vote.
Dudley Labour's doing something right.
Wollaston and Stourbridge Town (Dudley) election result:
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Lab: 49.1% (+4.3)
Con: 40.9% (-7.5)
LDem: 6.8% (+6.8)
Oth: 3.1% (+3.1)
More:
sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/0…
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Popularity of Prime ministers on/near day 100:
Tony Blair: 74% approval
Gordon Brown: 50%
David Cameron: 57%
Theresa May: 42%
Boris Johnson: 39%
... and Rishi Sunak: 28%
The worst start.
Some thoughts:
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/0…
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No country for young men
NEW: The Conservatives would upgrade the Triple Lock for pensioners with an extra income tax cut.
The new 'Triple Lock Plus' would raise pensioners' tax-free allowance each year.
National service for the young, tax cuts for the old. Big difference in the generational offering!
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I see Downing Street have launched their own newspaper!
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"The Conservatives are on course to make a net loss of more than 400 council seats across Great Britain"
"That's great, let's put a korma pun on the front page"
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Full disclosure, I am now a borough councillor for Chester's city centre & the Garden Quarter.
When it comes to continued objective analysis about public opinion and elections, the proof, imo, is in the pudding. It's up to you to decide, but nothing has, or will ever, change.
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Local aggregate in Wakefield points to a sizeable Labour gain in the parliamentary by-election to come.
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She's great.
"I don't work on the railways, I work in parliament" says Labour's Lisa Nandy as #Raworth asks if she would have voted for rail strikes
Nandy adds there is no point telling staff to "get round the table, if you've taken away the table"
#SundayMorning bbc.in/3zKNIEj
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Wandsworth: demonstration of Labour's ability to actually win something
Barnet: demonstration of Labour's ability to win with Jewish voters
Westminster: over and above
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Britain Predicts finds more than half of the 100-150 seats the Tories are currently forecast to hold will be with majorities of 5pts or less.
In other words, if the polls do not change, the government is an error margin away from near annihilation.
sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/0…
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Russians woke up this morning telling me their armed forces would not target civilian areas. They were adamant. Now they just look on in shock.
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Most Britons...
1. Think the BBC are in the wrong over suspending Lineker;
2. Don't think it's acceptable to compare gov policy with that of the Nazis;
3. Support sports correspondents promoting their own politics on their own personal channels;
4. Like Stopping The Boats™
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Never forget the Conservative MPs who called Theresa May "mummy" because she got them 15pt leads in the polls.
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Quite the result in Somerset. Lib Dems have surged from 21% of the seats to 55% - majority control.
sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/0…
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Poor Joe. Really, poor Joe. What a thoroughly decent man. But it's time to step aside. It was time two years ago.
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Communist Party of Britain now has elected representation - a Cllr Iain Mooney on Barrow Borough Council. A defection from Lab to Comm.
Bit late in the day. The council is to be abolished on 01 Apr.
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Huge shift in *GB-wide* public opinion of Nicola Sturgeon:
Favourable: 33% (-10)
Unfavourable: 53% (+14)
YouGov, 09 Mar
docs.cdn.yougov.com/wdb424mg…
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2001 general election:
Lab: 40.7%
Con: 31.7%
Result: 412 Lab MPs
2022 polling:
Lab: 40.6%
Con: 32.7%
Projection: 312 Lab MPs
newstatesman.com/politics/el…
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Gosh, we're very much within the realms of possibility that we are living under Britain's shortest ever serving Prime Minister.
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With little sign of fading, Labour's rise from 26% mid-April to 42% now has been quite something.
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Sky's coverage has been much better this election season than the BBC's, and as a default advocate of the BBC I'm really disappointed to say that.
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The party of so-called sound finance is spaffing cash on an offshore processing centre to please a phantom voter that isn't as fussed about this as they think
Andrew Mitchell, Tory, says it would be cheaper to put adult asylum seekers up at the Ritz & send under-18s to Eton than to put them in offshore processing centres
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Well then, a stumble of the highest order
Our forecast for today's local elections:
CON: 483 seats (-538 on 2021)
LAB: 334 (+72)
LDEM: 314 (+104)
REF: 311 (+311)
GRN: 56 (+17)
OTH: 109 (-1)
Council-by-council drilldown:
newstatesman.com/politics/uk…
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Swings in safer seats are less impressive than in marginals - shocker.
Despite 70% vote share for Labour, the swing was relatively underwhelming - implying a national Labour lead of 9pts.
The 10.5% swing, if repeated nationwide, would produce seat result of:
🔴 LAB 302 (+100)
🔵 CON 261 (-104)
🟡 SNP 48 (-)
🟠 LD 17 (+6)
🟢 PC 2 (-2)
🟢 GRN 1 (-)
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Deselections when the right faction is in charge:
Choo Choo!🚩✊
Deselections when the wrong faction is in charge:
Divisive purges!
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A story to wreck the Burnham Campaign
EXC: Rosie Duffield is open to rejoining the Labour Party if Andy Burnham becomes leader
The MP - who quit the party over Keir Starmer’s leadership a year ago - told @TimesRadio Burnham is Labour’s best chance of taking on Reform
thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
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Flags won't win elections, but rejecting them and all that they symbolise outright won't help, either. Is this really so hard to understand?
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Proportion of Britons who believe X has had a...
Keir Starmer
Good week: 45%
Bad week: 20%
Rishi Sunak
Good week: 20%
Bad week: 55%
via @OpiniumResearch
— Tories happy they won air war in opening days but fears set in that there’s been no poll movement
— Sunak considering further bold policies
— aides speculate that could be inheritance tax, stamp duty cut, or even Rwanda flights *before* the election
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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YouGov earlier this week had the Cons level pegging with Lab on the economy. Now we have this from Ipsos:
sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/0…
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