$RCAT
Initial thoughts - it's been a frustrating ride for those in the stock for multiple quarters.
Initial thesis is company won SRR tranche 2 I believe it was Nov 24. The parallel was Skydio winning SRR tranche 1 Nov 21 I believe.
I am going off memory and it's been a long year so don't @ me, but Skydio got into LRIP in Feb 22. So that was the expectation here for Feb 25 for RCAT. From that you estimated maybe 3 months of LRIP or give it 4 and by end of Q2 and beginning of Q3 you are in FRIP. Then you have 2 great quarters and blow the socks out the door at least hitting the bottom end of guidance of the $80 to $120M.
There was never any communication from the co to dissuade that thought. In fact the guide all year was EXACTLY for that sort of outcome.
There was an investor day I believe in February in NYC - not heavily attended from reports. But that would have been an opportunity to say "guys it doesn't look like LRIP is happening right now for ABC reasons". Instead nothing like that. We got through entire Q2 with nothing. Last we heard as the sign off on the conf call was "a fax for LRIP just hit". Mid July. (which turned out to be true it appears) But what happened ALL OF Q2? Never was explained.
Then because the original award was announced by the company rather than the Army the inference was LRIP would not be announced by the company and we'd wait for the Army to announce it. Which they never did.
So what to believe?
Then the Panda arrives in his bear suit. Then Skydio is out there promoting they are selling SRR2 drones to the Army.
So why could a competitor announce they are selling drones under SRR2 but radio silence from Red Cat?
Then in next conf call which was not a traditional one - but prepared Q&A not live questions it was talk of how many BW drones they can get out the door a week. They easily could do 50 a day so working 6 days a week that is 300. The entire order was 690 units so less than 1400 drones.
So what's the inference an investor should make when the company is leaving you with info about how easy they can make 300 drones a week and have LRIP coming.
Well us nerds went to the maths and said oh if they can do 50 a day and 300 a week they can knockout 1400 in a month a half. So once they posted a photo of their first LRIP shipment (I forgot what month but it was early in Q3) we pro rated that they could easily get all of LRIP out the door by end of Q3 and start FRIP in Q4.
Hey maybe we don't get to the $80-$120M but we get close to the bottom of the range. Which was confirmed on the prior (no live questions) Q&A. Never came off the $80M guide even then. But we had our doubts.
Instead now today we hear, oh there were adjustments made and 3 weeks later we were able to get the drones out. But we didn't fulfill the whole 690 units. Oh but the LRIP is now EVEN bigger - surprise. So its mega LRIP but still no FRIP.
Skipping to Edge 130 - yes it was said they were still working on making it a Trichon. But it was never said we are not going to get to the $25M of sales in 2025 we published multiple times. It should have been explicitly said we are pulling all guidance for Edge 130 as we want to toughen it up for military use and that's going to take us time, so expect that bad boy out in 2026. Expect ZERO for 2025. Instead today it was said "we told you guys prior we are working on the redesign". Yes you did but you never said that means ZERO sales of it. And you stuck to the $80M guidance for the year.
What about non SRR BW? $25M stated all year - never saw a contract not one all year. Now it seems to have disappeared from the guide.
Where was that $25M non SRR BW guide from? Who were the implied non Army customers? Why no explanation today that disappeared? It is one thing to disappoint; that's business. It is another to disappoint and NOT explain. I still don't know why there are not any non SRR BW out the door in 2025 and I follow this company as closely as anyone out there aside 2-3 people on reddit.
Then their CRO Geoff on TWO different interviews at public venues said they are in FRIP. This was 2 months ago? 6 weeks? So we have confusion - are we in LRIP? Are we in FRIP? You'd think the CHIEF REVENUE OFFICER would be able to communicate WHICH PROGRAM they are in.
Then the marketing guy Stan (who I like) says we are in LRIP as recently as 3 weeks ago. So now we are confused. CRO says this? Marketing says that. Then The D.C. regulation guy Brandon (who I like) also says we are in LRIP a month ago. But the CRO said we are in FRIP. TWICE.
Then you have Panda on the side coming in for round 2 (hi Matthew) all while one side of the company points this way, and one points the other.
It has been a ridiculous year.
It should have been stated - we thought we would get LRIP in spring - it has not happened. Here are the delays - some of it is OUR fault some of it is OUT of our hands. But we take responsibility for the communication part, we did not deliver on that. And left our investors hanging. We have worked on multiple redesigns. The govt budget took longer than we anticipated. Or our standards in the factory were not up to snuff - we have now corrected that with the 3rd party ace manufacturer we now brought in.
Instead its Palantir this, look at this boat over here... its shiny and new. Ok NATO contracts. Any second now. We are in a catalogue.
Anyhow it's been a frustrating year and a lot of goodwill lost. People new to the name won't know any of that and I believe will make pretty good money in 2026 because a rising tsunami of drone orders will lift all boats. Including those who had a rough go of it in 2025 if they are inclined to stick around.
The people who were here all along are the ones burned of course. Either losing money or lost opportunity cost tying up money in a business that was not ready to deliver. In the end we make our own investing decisions and WE are RESPONSIBLE. But we rely on the good faith of the management communication for said decisions.
This has been a horrible year of communication. Piss poor.
It's ok to communicate that and say WE LEARNED. WE LET DOWN OUR FELLOW COMPANY OWNERS which are what shareholders are. WE ARE A BIT HUMBLED AND MORE EDUCATED NOW.
Instead just point finger at the dysfunctional government and wash hands of it. Point at shiny boats.
People would be frustrated still but give grace if a company took it upon themselves and said WE AS A COMPANY WERE PART OF THE PROBLEM.
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I am rambling. Seeing how other companies operate and their management it's a big difference. You hope there is a 45 degree learning curve.
All that said, everything is hopefully pushed out half a year. What should have been in July 25 will now be in February 26. MAYBE.
There is a scarcity of opportunities to take part in the opportunity and
$RCAT is saved by that
At this point
$UMAC is a vendor
$DPRO has army contract (FPV) and Canada locked down
$ONDS has 3rd party Wasps it resells from Europe not someone who is getting massive US contracts for the gov drone production themselves (yet). They are more CUAS and at this point an array of other drone adjacent exposures in Israel with Europe . So not a pure play on the actual drone production.
That leaves
$RCAT in the public market available to the retail public.
$UAVS is out there but it's behind.
So it's
$DPRO or
$RCAT at this point for direct line to the DOW.
$UMAC benefits from anyone obviously making a drone with its parts.
So now you have to say is the DOW/Armed Forces opportunity in 2026-2028 so big, it just overcomes a management who stumbled through this entire year.
Great question.