Anthropic claims Claude Opus 4.6 published today is a marked improvement for investment analysis; I put it to the test. I ran it through my automated stock pitch pipeline: 6 AI analysts, 5 rounds of debate, 1 research director. It cost ~$50 (20x my usual). Is it worth it? Here's what I found: 🧵

0 – Are there ways to stabilize in-game FX & make P2E economies more sustainable? @0xAikoDai & I came up w/ 10 ideas esp. for games w/ heavy PvE + dual tokens. These ain’t no panacea – just our opinions & hope to inspire developers exploring the fog of war. Threadoooor below:

ugh bro

The race to become the de-facto Steam / Animoca on $TON starts now, and we like @CatizenAI as the current frontrunner. Read Folius Report here (EN): docsend.com/view/xqqbnterzep… ---------- After spending time on Telegram x $TON, it’s becoming clear to us that in the next 3-6 months, a ton of (no pun intended) H5 mini-app devs are about to onboard & build out the ecosystem (already evident w/ clickers). We believe this app narrative is likely underappreciated by the broader $ETH / Base / $SOL CT cabal, and as a result we are very likely going to see (a) new token playbooks on $TON similar to that of DeFi / NFT / VC-infra, and (b) massive 20-100x type wins within this ecosystem. In particular, Telegram’s nascent Infra & ecosystem lends itself very well to a social x gaming behemoth establishing dominance early & capturing significant value – and we believe the fastest horse currently to be the Catizen team @CatizenAI (amongst a sea of clickers). ---------- The report is split into 2 pieces, 1st part about Telegram x TON, and the 2nd part about Catizen. We believe that: - Telegram x TON is on the cusp of massive Web3-enabled app growth, and - That Catizen, amongst others, could be the fastest horse to become the “Mini-steam / Next Animoca” on Telegram to monetize the traffic. As of June 2024, Telegram x TON has worked its way solidly into the tier-1 camp both as a messenger app with 900 mm MAU and as a blockchain platform w/ usage rivaling that of $BASE and $SOL. - We believe that with the launch of its Mini Apps effort circa 2023, the 2024 Telegram ecosystem reminds us of Facebook in 2008 and WeChat in 2018 – just prior to explosive DAU and monetization ramp after the launch of Mini Apps respectively. - In particular, if we benchmark Telegram to WeChat today, we believe that per MAU spend on Telegram still sees 10-30x upside easily, while the developer ecosystem remains 100x less competitive. - With Web3 wallet, USDT, and IAP (In-app-purchase) all integrated within the past 12 months, the onboard, onramp, and onchain cost for Web3 is significantly reduced – the stage is now set for explosive Web3-enabled 2C product growth on Telegram in the foreseeable future. While Telegram’s H5 infra, ad-targeting, and app-center-distribution stills leaves much to be desired (as well as difficulty in smart contract dev), we believe that a Steam-like platform to onboard, launch, and distribute thousands of apps on Telegram is a sizable opportunity -- and we believe that Catizen could be the fastest horse in this race. Not only do we believe that the ecosystem will quickly move beyond clickers in 2-3 months, but also that Catizen so far inspired confidence via: - A single-title hit demonstrates remarkable Web3-induced virality, production value, AND monetization at this stage of the Telegram ecosystem, as evident by its 20 mm in registered users and 12 mm USD in revenue 3 months into launch, - The founders’ 5+ years tenure of success in both the WeChat + Facebook ecosystem, as well as building out the app infra along the TON team since mid-2023 , - Its execution on dev-onboarding and app-center-building, - Its proximity to the WeChat mini-game ecosystem – with a strong pipeline of 150-200 games ready to launch in the next 3-6 months. We look forward to seeing the $CATI flywheel in motion. Disclosure: Folius Ventures is an investor in Catizen and its parent company Pluto Studio.

(0) Since our last report on July 4th, 2020, The #DeFi space and our mental framework had evolved enough to prompt another iteration – a deck about the broader #valuenet and ETH-based #DeFi / #WallstreetAPI. As usual, would appreciate any feedback! Link: drive.google.com/file/d/1eTu…

(0) As per requested, I spent some weekends putting together my basic framework on the $ETH + $DeFi space. Would greatly appreciate your feedback as it’s the sole purpose of putting the deck out there -- should be pretty timely as the space heats up Link: drive.google.com/file/d/1_pj…

Wow @JamboTechnology

Recently, an internal excel document from Huobi (one of the BPs) is circulating in the Chinese community. This file documents the collusion, mutual voting, and pay-offs that occur amongst the Chinese BP community. I’ m working on getting the file.

It’s been 4-5 days since the Gas Hero (GH) launch and I now feel comfortable putting this out as reality matches my model – I believe $GMT is reversing its historically poor emission dynamic (of 1-1.5 mm GMT sold per day) into net-sink imminently, whereby every 10k DAU = 1-1.5 mm GMT locked up per day at current prices. And if Gas Hero were to trod the path towards 100k+ users + maintain current set of GH asset prices, then the FSL ecosystem may be set to hit 15 mm GMT locked per day + relive the craze circa Mar-May 2022 once again. High hopes for this new title and personally think the token can get back to top 25-75 again within 2-3 months. Short-term target set at 1 dollar per GMT (3x from here). Current GMT selling dynamic: - We estimate that prior to GH, GMT emission is about 115 mm stepping down to 109 mm per month starting in December; whereby it’s split 1/3 to investors & advisors, 1/3 to team & treasury, and 1/3 to M2E rewards. Team isn’t selling, advisory emission is small, and treasury emission is controllable; so the big jeet are mostly M2E (1 mm / day assuming 80% sale, but about half of it is burned within Stepn, so really 300k / day net sold) and investor sale. - Prior to Oct 23, ~75% of GMT gets jeeted right when private investors get them. So close to 1-1.1 mm / day if we include advisory sale as well. - So net-net we have about 1.5-1.6 mm of GMT selling pressure per day almost ever since March 2023. Almost half a million dollars daily. No wonder the ratio of GMT is down-only in USD and vs. BTC / ETH terms. - The recent events had marked impacts on the GMT/Beta ratio: --- This investor selling pace slowed since the mini-bull started in Oct and the insta-jeet went to ~40% (from 75% before). So daily selling went from 1.6 mm to 1.1 mm. Along with alts liquidity this had an immediate positive impact to the ratio. --- Also note 20 mm GMT was sent from FTX to Wintermute around Dec 1st; all of which jeeted by Dec 15th. This added about 1 mm / day of selling pressure that’s now done. The ratio took a very marked hit during this period and started reverting up once FTX is done. - If we assume only 40% of investors portion are jeeted for the next couple of months, we are looking at ~1 mm of GMT being dumped daily; but let’s assume it’s 1-1.5 mm jeet daily. - This all changed when FSL launched its Gas Hero game on Jan 3rd, 2024. How GH works - In simplified terms, a player needs to buy a BCV truck + heros to start mining resources (whereby the mined resources are NFTs and not tokens). Heroes can carry weapons + pets (buff attributes), all of which need to be soul-bound to go into battle (and can’t be resold once bound), and die after 20-60 days of usage (except for genesis heroes, btw there are only 2084 of them). All resources can be traded in the in-game marketplace. The 3 ways to acquire resources would be to either farm them (in battle), bid in auction (effectively buying *primary* from the system), and buy in marketplace (effectively buying*P2P* from other players). - $GMT as the base currency will be used for key functions (breed, level up, etc) and denominate transactions (marketplace, auction, prize pools). Importantly, 50% of $GMT functional usage is burnt (rest goes to FSL), 2% of marketplace royalty goes to FSL, and 50% of auction proceeds is split in half between FSL and burn. This in-app taxation along with the supply sink to prize pool for the 1st cycle should drive material $GMT lock-up shortly after the game launches. - While the typical low-end users play for ROI (i.e. recycle heros & dump resources into marketplace), the big players are mainly competing for the prize-pool – which is distributed either to PVP winners or area officials. Winning in PVP battles effectively requires spending $ really decking out the hero line-up, while becoming officials would require similar hero-line-ups for smaller areas but increasingly donation / voting-based elections for larger areas. The prize pool = the tax base of the Gas Hero ecosystem (i.e. marketplace & auction house royalty) – importantly, no additional $GMT inflation is emitted in GH; the game is net-burn only. - The elegance of the economic design should be immediately obvious – In the short-run, entry of new users + reinvestment of existing users guarantee the ROI; but over-time, the big players’ spending aiming to win the prize pool = buying demand for resources = ROI for smaller players. And effectively sunk cost of many & recurring losers in the prize pool competition become the “consumption” that pays for everyone’s ROI. The key to GH’s success imo would be to (a) accrue sizable prize pools, hopefully in millions of dollars and (b) consistently attract (new) whale players who continuously spend and compete. To the extent that GH does become a 100k – 1 mm DAU game (where all players share the same global state + GH being inherently social), the triple satisfaction of global recognition (fame), control over one’s faction (power), and sizable monetary reward (wealth) should drive tremendous dopamine hit beyond any SLG we’ve witnessed so far. - The positive flywheel goes like this: initial fomo (we are here) -> more new users and reinvestments -> more transactions and thus royalty taxes -> bigger prize pool -> more competition on investing for PvP and donations + more attention on the game -> more new users and reinvestments (and the loop goes on). - Additionally, the existence of asset lifespan + the option to restart economic cycles by the elders allow for constant destruction of excess production capacity. Assuming relatively stable user attention + wallet share via clever GTM, oversupply of assets + declining ROI can be resolved by sheer passage of time (oversupply -> lower ROI & prices -> letting heroes die -> less production of NFTs -> higher prices if demand stays constant). New seasons mean rule adjustment – which gives new hope & incentives for player reinvestment. - With GH soon hitting 10k users (6.5 currently) + internal testing data + the current slate of prices (all of which observable on Mooar), we believe that the prize for being the global champion could be easily 200-400k USD, whereby 0.5 mm GMT can be burnt / day + 1 mm GMT being locked with FSL / day. This is around 1.5 mm of GMT going out of circulation on a daily basis. Current Dune analytics is supportive of our estimates. The 1st batch of supply via prize pools won’t be hitting the market for at least 14 days; and after that the meta-game (PVP + common Hero death by day 20) should add more to the burn. Where we are going: - So the GMT Supply / demand will flip from 1-1.5 mm daily sale to net-sink right from the start. The marked reversal will only accelerate as GH accrue more users – and if we get a craze like Stepn in the early days of March – May of 2022, I expect the GMT burn to kick into hyperdrive where we get more users in GH = more burn = GMT up = more attention = more users in GH. The added benefit is even Stepn + Mooar may accrue more DAUs in the process and add fuel to the GMT sink. - I believe western crypto funds are materially underexposed to GMT. The name doesn’t show up on any alleged “gaming beta” threads I read on CT. It’s also very clear to me from speaking to most of these private investors of Stepn (especially those who are jeeting currently) that none of them spend any time on this name anymore, some of them don’t even know what Gas Hero is. You can’t ask for a better uninformed, DPI-driven seller base that are on “autopilot dumping” mode. Once the thesis gets recognized by allocators + more western players find out about GH I expect the flywheel to spin even faster. - The fun really starts when say we hit 50k DAU + GMT price is high enough where the prize pool for the top-dog winner goes into millions of dollars. No SLG game in the Web2 world had ever seen something like this (i.e. no one actually makes money from SLG games except for the game company). If the FSL team markets this aspect well, I expect the game to have significant pull from the traditional Web2 SLG community + become the 1stmegahit title from Web3 in 2024. - At $0.35 today and ~1.6 Bn circulating, GMT is effectively 1/6 of IMX and <1/2 of AXS / SAND / MANA / BEAM. It didn’t get much love at all from the “gaming beta” trade and is due for a catch-up (and in my opinion the best public gaming beta today for Asia, we work with FSL very closely on multiple other gaming / app investments in the region). The GH launch provides both the narrative and the fundamentals for this catchup to occur (and perhaps somewhat quickly) – with the added kicker of westerners recognizing the story (much like Chinese buying Solana coins, or westerners buying ordinals). FD (but I think everyone knows already): Folius owns a material position in $GMT tokens and the founder serves as an advisor to FSL the company. Source that you can dig up #'s yourself:

Last day in TradFi. A new chapter awaits.

在上海差不多呆了5个月，见了很多相当优秀的Web2转Web3 App创业者。聊聊最近想法，轻喷。Elon把Thread限流了很不爽，委屈大家看长文了。 - USD支付已经是行业内最强应用了。让用户用USDX做买卖依然是扩大用户基数最好方案，绝大多数人玩不转自己的utility token。入金问题在逐渐解决，最后一英里出金需要更多毛细血管落地，还没想好怎么跑通。有想法可以找我们聊聊，很多App有巨大需求=） - 纯清真账户体系目前是业内自嗨，类CEX的半中心化方案最适合想快速落地的同志们。另外广大用户其实就那几个子儿真的不care啥Web3原生那一套。吃饱了肚子+基数大了才有诗和远方。这个估计12-24个月内就挺成熟的了。至于清真派，我只能寄望于几个天才能顺便把UIUX做好一些最后弯道超车。 - 旁氏是用免费的币、现金流背后的乘数、和流通盘时间错配在既定时间内靠财富效应做成规模效应和网络效应，最后得靠产品下限和娱乐消费需求夯实。一般很多目前Web3的产品做大了既没规模效应，也没网络效应，整个完成度跟坨屎一样。没准备好的时候上了旁氏这个激素自然是个死。当然这个兴奋剂是一般项目和Web2龙头争锋的超级大杀器，也是胜负手，不过在怎么不大幅度改变用户画像、持续激励后来者、绑定持续贡献者、和平衡食利阶层上还没玩明白。个人依然非常期待新模式跑出来。 - 之前也说过。你连价值捕获的边都不敢蹭，还敢说爱Web3。价值捕获有很多方法，不仅仅是回购。Staking后增加空投游戏内盲盒+爆率怎么样？对Staker溢价回购/返现游戏内潜在价值呢？对于众多抽税场景的大幅度减税甚至贴现/补贴呢？和上一点联系起来，产品+机制双牛逼的团队我个人认为在拉新效率/ARPU/Retention上是可以在一定时间内吊打同类Web - 都2023了，就不要拿“我们是个NFT项目”来说事了。NFT跟FT一样，都会成为一个融合Web3 feature项目的标配。所以你哪怕说“我们是Web3奢侈品潮牌”都要更好。在游戏方面，目前行业吞吐成本支持不了一般游戏道具上链，所以一段时间内估计CEX形态交易还会是主流。能上链的都是贵重玩意儿，这里面有很多能游戏化的地方（比如上了链再搞回游戏里能有buff/debuff），在这方面可以和我们一起多想想到底一个贵重物品上链是为了啥。 - 我们普遍都没想好游戏内经济产业链多少归于官方/多少归于玩家，以及耐用品最终到底怎么消耗才好。这个我们自己也没答案。只能走一步看一步。这个行业内大牛比我们懂多了。期待交流。 - App的真正花钱场景就两个。刚才说了娱乐性决定了消费力度，另一个就是场外有ROI需求的人对App里的一些行为付钱，最典型的就是广告/眼球。娱乐性打造确实不好搞，所以我也蛮期待看到有啥直接变现场外需求+返现给用户的App的。这东西最好是高频日用Utility App而且在Web2就已经盈利能力蛮强。无论是Strava还是Chrome还是今日头条。你们有啥好想法直接发我们就行=） - 绝大多数目前Web3里面看到的项目既不懂2C产品，也不懂怎么做用户增长（其中其实CEX普遍做的很好）。Web2的经验很多时候其实非常适用，所以过去有过Web2创业成功经验的人其实我认为是很有优势的。不过一要认清行业里很多任督二脉没打通，现成的TAM极小+很多基础设施乱七八糟的，二要理解说加了Web3 feature等于是开始玩一个金融游戏；所以过去的固有牛逼经验固然很好，但是按照大TAM大干快上+不对预期管理和金融价格敏感的话还是很容易出幺蛾子。可以一起学习。 最后吹一波 @Scroll_ZKP / @degame_l2y / @Galxe / @ChainbaseHQ / @zellic_io 欢迎广大Web3 App创业者和他们多多合作。

0 - As popularly requested, this will be a thread about $NXM. The token design of $NXM is one of the most elegant I have seen yet. Enough good work had been done by @krugman25, @Darrenlautf, @BatmanDeFi on bonding curves and core mechanics so I won’t repeat here.

国内的朋友们勿需妄自菲薄。Web3的下一个章节应将由B2C应用写就，而这恰恰是亚太工程师优势所在。 下个一个10年的发展，亚太尤其是中国人必然不会缺席，而且会大放异彩。

Presented without comments ahead of the $COIN listing when compared to a small subset of exchange tokens / DEX's out there. Am I making any glaring errors? (TVL / Volume / Fee / token data are all eyeballed).

0 - It’s been a long time coming. Today I am announcing @FoliusVentures / 一叶创投 dedicated to investing in, evangelizing, and buidling the Web3 future w/ a global mandate (APAC focus to start).Ping me on twitter / Telegram with the same handle if you wanna jam!

Out of curiosity I mapped out $QUICK and it actually looks...cheap? Assuming $MATIC momentum continues on-boarding other protocols $QUICK could pull what $CAKE pulled for $BNB. $QUICK-$MATIC yielding 100% trading fee + 50-70% $QUICK inflation reward.

0 - I feel strongly that well-organized, cleverly incentivized, vertical-focused DAOs that understands capital markets will meaningfully outperform generalists and even any individuals in their niche, and many are best served joining them vs. trying to beat them.

Hot $UNI takes - Initial reaction is dump $UNI into your favorite token across (long best DEFI coins) - 2nd reaction is long ETH as alts take-profit + buy to farm $UNI. - 3rd reaction is ETH based farms likely higher yield given ETH goes to $UNI pool (percent & pickle to name 2)

(0) I lean towards believing we had a paradigm shift for $BTC demand given news from China. Similar to how halving step-function reduces demand, CCP officially making blockchain a strategic pillar = step-function in demand creation that permeates into ecosystem in next 1-2 years.

关于Friend.tech，欧美圈子玩到飞起，而这阵风暂时还没完全登陆亚洲。就此我们根据目前搜集到的信息加上我们的判断，写就关于这个产品的短篇以便讨论一下其背后火热的逻辑+未来可能的演化态势，以飨读者。 详情请见中文版本：docsend.com/view/cn6axjcaxcy… 目前FT处于第二个圈内的波峰期，头部Beta可能回调在即；但在我们认为在200-500%+APR的空投预期加成以及产品核心PMF+不断向正确方向迭代的前提下，一旦成功覆盖硅谷+亚太+流量型头部用户并将KEY的购买入口金融化，则可能仍有着两波DAU高峰冲击。如果后续产品和代币经济设计合理，其潜在1Q24的发币值得重点关注。我们同时也认为FT务实的设计理念、刷屏流量、和吸金效应，吹响了下一波社交产品与Web3功能融合的集结号，非常期待后续行业内新产品的到来。

0 - As I delve beyond the ETH ecosystem as local #DeFi token circulating market caps soared (200-500 mm), $LUNA by @terra_money at ~160 mm USD market cap really stood out to me not only as an interesting VC bet, but also as a solid counter-weight to all the native craze.

Interesting. Sneaky $PUMP update on fees.pump.fun/ Don't think it's been picked up yet. Basically Padre revenue now goes to buying back $PUMP tokens starting 2 days ago. Assuming they can pick that fee stream up (and users don't just offboard because no more airdrop / fee capture on $PADRE etc), this could add like 5-15% to Pump's current fee stream.

0 - As per popularly requested & at risk of repetition, here is my framework on $YFI. A lot of good work done by @DefiGod1, @im_manderson, and @learn2yearn already. I will try on a higher-level flesh out what all the hype is all about. If I have higher IQ, it'd be shorter.

The Dec dynamic just changed materially with this break of 100k and I think we are in for fireworks: - Was in the camp that S/D was balanced re: Saylor buying off Jeetors. Saylor has 2-3 more weeks of buying left so may get front-run and we put in local top before (literally 1-3 days before everything sells off) - With BTC now at 100k barrier, it means that Saylor + new buyer absorbed most supplies likely coming from profit-takers who think it's 95-110k top & planning accordingly w/ dynamics above. - So we are now at a place where 3 forces battle it out -- (1) folks to sodl early (but may need to buy back), (2) folks who don't have limit orders but are now jeeting, (3) and new folks who are now fomoing as the 100k headline will be plastered globally. - I'm in the camp that camp 1 and 2 battle it out in the next 24 hours but camp 1 will win; then the "rocket fuel" reinforcement arrives thereafter, sending BTC on a tear continuously higher (with 0 dip). - We will have added dynamics of altcoin owners selling their alts to chase BTC, but this short-term dynamic will be counteracted by folks rotating from BTC to alts + camp 3 aping into "things that could pump like BTC". All in, I think my base case after this 100k break is the market will no longer top in 1-3 days but got another lease of life to keep running for 2+ weeks into Christmas. First via BTC then via a rampage of alts. Open to changing my mind as the tape trades. Good luck hunting.

来聊一下$Pump未来必经的惊险一跃 最近对这个票很感兴趣，是在 $HOOD / $HYPE / $POLY / $CARDS / $ZRO 之外为数不多让我感到可以蛮性感的一个标的。Risk:reward也比较明确，但是其Upside非常需要执行+想象力，属于一步步走出来加仓的类型。 - 先说估值。Pump 现在每天进账大概 1–1.5 mm 美金，年化 400–500 mm，折算不到 10×PE；对应的流通市值也就 3–4× Float。这意味着以现金流看，它已经很便宜，市场几乎没给任何“产品升级”的预期溢价。 - 我把$PUMP的下一步誉为整个公司的“惊险一跃”。 所谓“惊险一跃”，不是把 launcher 做得更炫，而是从 meme 发射器，跳到一个能让普通人用认知下注未来注意力的娱乐应用——你觉得什么会火，就押它一注；注意力做大后带来的商业价值，再被透过各种好玩的方式反馈到对应的币上，构成“注意力 → 变现 → 回流到币”的闭环。成功了，它就不再是工具，而是一个命运参与式娱乐平台。这里的重点是$PUMP的未来一定要是Entertainment App first-and-foremost，不然目前这个业态很容易消失在历史长河里。 - 跟团队交流后。Alon / Noah现在的方向很明确：100% 把所有精力资源转向移动端，尽快把信息流做成 娱乐+社交优先、投机为辅的娱乐产品；完全倒向抖音交替模式 -- 视频+直播内容将会是用户看到的第一状态；交互尽量低摩擦（右滑、拖拽就能下单），引进算法 - 按照互动 × 下单金额推送分发；KOL 与主播能一键开盘、建预测池、做回购或福利；用户这边有 Portfolio + Chat 把身份与关系收拢在一起。换而言之，Pump Mobile 将会往 Tiktok w/ speculative features 无限靠拢。 - 为什么这条路有意思？因为在 Web2，素人的流量基本一文不值，你有十几万播放也拿不到几块钱；在 Pump，交易手续费就是现金流，哪怕你只是把人带进来下了几单，平台的抽水也是真金白银，素人阶段的变现速度能直接媲美中等网红。注意力在这里不再虚，它立刻能变钱，接着再回流到币上。 - 那为什么大家会想赌呢？我认为有两个核心原因：第一是大环境让大家不得不赌，第二是Fungible Token本身是人类历史上最好的赌具 (better than every other gambling vehicles historically). - 为什么要赌的原因很现实：大家只要稍微思考一下生活，都会开始觉醒。AI + 机器人 把岗位压扁，资产整体估值又贵，稳定币将碾压大部分发展中国家，普通人的上升通道在变窄；贫富差距越拉越大，有资本者越滚越大，没资本者连上车资格都难。与其等“稳定路径”，不如去找 lop-sided bet——用几次正确的认知，为人生加一把杠杆。这代人真的相信自己看得准“什么会火”，也愿意为此下注。这种虚无主义的大趋势浩浩荡荡，韩国已是先例，未来几年，十几年应该会愈远愈烈。 - 为什么Token在我看来是最好的赌具？它的赔率上限可以接近彩票，但过程却让人感觉“可控”：靠你的眼力下注，随时加减仓、换标的、拉群互动；再叠加社交属性（主播带节奏、评论区共振、社区统一换 PFP），可操纵感 + 高赔率 + 社交快感 让参与者更有黏性。这种互联网时代的新博彩，可比传统博彩好玩太多了。 - 商业上，这种娱乐+博彩的设计自带飞轮：主播带来注意力 → 更多人看与交易 → 一部分主播与交易员真的赚到钱 → 更多人和主播涌入 → Pump 的抽水自然抬升。平台要的就是流动性和时长，参与者要的要么是关注，要么是收益，大家彼此成就。 - 难点也摆在那儿： ---第一，Pump上目前的内容非常水，飞轮第一步根本还没转起来。 ---第二，Pump的产品本身迭代速度还是慢，加上这种兴趣x交易量的推流算法完全是新东西。他们能不能做出来只能一步步看。 ---第三，没人能提前算准什么内容会火、能火多久，平台必须用产品与算法去拥抱这份不确定。 ---第四，娱乐与投机一体化在移动生态里要兼顾有趣、流畅、风控与合规，既要“上头”，又要“可持续”。这些feature全是新的。具体他们有没有这种想象力，到底这种feature存不存在，完全成疑。 ---第五，如何稳定把主播的商业价值作用回到币上（回购、分红池、任务回购等）并长期合理、跑得起来，是成败关键，目前看起来这个问题解决起来非常难。 能把这几道坎跨过去，Pump 的那一步，才算真正落地。不过吧，在4 Bn FDV，现金流充沛，并且大概确定了(a) 大额回购还会继续 + (b) 团队对公司和币价真的很上心的前提下，如果对于这种新时代的泛娱乐+投机一体的App需要下注的话，这个手握十几亿现金，创造了这个赛道的年轻团队或许还是值得赌一把的。

I'm looking for a Research Partner to help buidl @FoliusVentures together. If you an ex-founder / prop / HF / big tech / degen ready to explore everything out there in Web3, this is for you.

Just catching up on the $LUNA ecosystem... man, what a constellation @d0h0k1 's team built. terra.smartstake.io/eco

F

0 – As per popularly requested, here’s my preliminary thoughts on the $LEND / $AAVE 2.0 tokeneconomics restructuring, with the #’s based on @The3D_ ‘s proposal at governance.aave.com/t/initia…

Seems inevitable.

We are excited to lead the 10 mm A2 financing round for Matr1x, which in our opinion can be one of the fastest horses in reaching sizable DAU as a Web3-enabled game as early as 1H24. For those interested, here’s a full deck on our thesis: Folius Matr1x Deck: docsend.com/view/77zy8kbp7su… - Right team, right market: mobile FPS with sizable TAM (up to 500k – 5 mm DAU which could place Matr1x at top of the Web3 list) built by seasoned team who executed similar franchise before. - Derisked product: Robust production value as shown in beta, along with strong player feedback. We felt that the game possesses strong enough production quality to be top-tier in Web3 today and can compete somewhat evenly in Web2. - Unfair Web3 playbook achieving critical scale: a low cash-cost way to virally attract users in a highly popular category, leveraging recursive loops and wealth-effects shown by Axie and StepN. - …made sustainable by a proven cosmetics model: separation of ROI / consumer asset, solid precedence set by CS:GO skin market, and strong cash-flow induced buyback collectively may solidify the “growth debt”. We are hopeful that the ultimate product can strike an elegant balance that may, in the best case, help it achieve critical scale, appeal to the mass market, become sustainably lucrative, while side-stepping the Web3 death spiral altogether. Expect the official beta / launch of the game by 1Q24. Happy Thanksgiving!

(0) Since our last report on Dec 17th, 2020, the Web3 narrative had moved far beyond single-chain #DeFi to prompt another iteration – this time on where we are re: Web3, #DeFi, token gov & fundamentals, & new primitives. EN: docsend.com/view/9x4a3reuvvf… CN: docsend.com/view/np5dhyyc9ui…

Good work by @Lucas; here's my latest visual. Think Sushi is >2x undervalued vs. $UNI. $UNI and $AAVE seem to be catching inst. bids, $UNI also trades like pot'l v3 release w/ inside info. FWIW I expect gap to close w/ catalyst w/ $SUSHI on Bentobox, Mirin, & other good stuff 👀

I think what's been missing in the ETH/BTC ratio discussion in the west (@NorthRockLP 's recent tweet is gud and summarizes) is that BTC gets another kicker of inflow via BRC20 / Ordinals. People actually ape this stuff and it's predominantly Asia especially China. My wechat groups are going nuts and none of my western frens are remotely aware what's going on. Alas infra for funds to ape is hard, we are actively looking for ways to get exposure -- and it's hard because mints are tiny + custody is not there, but the easiest thing (for western funds) aside from privates may be ERC20 exposure that's directly linked. Explains the strength in the following coins: - $RUNE - Bridge to BTC duh - $MUBI - another bridge - $BSSB - basically USD on BRC20 collateral (I think) - $AUCTION - launchpad for the 2 coins above + more launches in BRC20 ecosystem - you'd expect these "easy proxies" to get a bid as funds ape while looking for ways to put on real exposure. Also probably things that get listed on Binance like $ORDI + $SATS when PMs say "get me some ordinal exposure" There's probably more, but my thesis is that miners + mining rig manufacturers have every interest to make this sector pump thanks to fees (so pumping it after fair launch is easy to create wealth effect similar to FT). Every new crypto generation gets their own kingmaker trade & ponzu, and your new vintage of retail probably won't want to buy your memecoin + VC bags at multi-billion FDV right out the gate. They want their own stuff.

(0) $LEO’s token economics remain one of the most interesting (and bullish) out there in the market today. At 10 Bn run-rate monthly traded volume, 0.3% take-rate, and 27% towards buyback, this translates to roughly 100 mm / yr towards token burn. @zhaodong1982 @zhusu

A sector rotation into DEFI is happening - where tokeneconomics actually make sense: - KNC - AMM - SNX - Synthetic casino - LEND - Flash loans - MKR - Collateralize loans - KAVA - MKR on Cosmos / DOT - RUNE - Eross-chain uniswap - ZRX - Dex - LRC - L2 Dex - REN - Hidden orderbook

FTX indicated Coinbase $CBSE pricing at ~$388 / share, that's close to ~$97 Bn USD market cap. At that valuation it's worth $ICE (which owns NYSE) and Nasdaq ($NDAQ) combined. Make of it what you will.

I like this so much I need to quote retweet. 1. Long Equities / Short Bonds - because one could have pricing power & soak up productivity and one loses it. 2. Long the gambling x entertainment barbell - because those are the only 2 options left for everyone who can’t quite make it. 3. Long both Gold and BTC for debasement - needs no further explanation. 4. Long AI / Industrials and robotics - because a leap in productivity is the only way to bail us out, and u need a hedge in case this trend also makes you irrelevant.

I need a Web3 app that: - shows me all events at a conference - allows nft-gated /whitelist sign-up - shows frens are going - sync w/ calendar - event notification & chat - allows nft drop + QR code entry Plz save me from this calendar / eventbrite / telegram / google sheet hell

回亚洲了。凌晨还醒着。Trump发币具有时代性意义： - 直接打板, 基本上明牌告诉你发币没问题，未来1个月估计还有1-2个顶级速通盘。后续关注(1) 价值捕获 + (2) 贿选 - On 2，你想象一下只要美国人注册/KYC+有链上地址就能直接领空投，外加TRUMP各种蹭换取现金流+资产。2028大选Trump的派系是否还能当选 - 川普派系对于加密圈的实际支持概率在上升 - 以太得抓紧了。财富效应继续全部在SOL产生的话行业地位的颠覆就在12-24个月之内 - SOL 本身会变成未来3个月的财富效应currency - 亚太区政策上是否会180反复跟进目前没有定论，属于known unknown. 有的话是重大行业利好

I used to think that over-collateralized lending is too small a market and DeFi must tackle un/under-collateralized lending to scale. After all, TradFi's unsecured / uncollateralized lending market is huge vs. collateralized. I no longer think that. When we get to tokenize almost everything with decent liquidity, giving everyone instant access to low-cost leverage/liquidity on said equity is already a 10x improvement vs. all forms of existing TradFi systems. Yes this is massively bullish the front-runner lending / borrowing platforms and there's a bit of a strong local network effect there. Over cycles one should expect the TVL to increase exponentially (assuming we don't backtrack progress made under the Trump regime).

Being a core part of an emerging DAO today could be similar to being employee #1-10 of FAANG 15-25 years ago.

(0) Since our Feb 22 report & many Qs later, @0xAikoDai & I felt it's time to share our latest thinking around Web3 x Gaming again – namely In-app taxation now as a fitting biz model, paired w/ 10 tentative ideas around sustainability, & our hypothetical game as an example. 👇🧵

I think you guys shouldn't count out the possibility of ETH ETF potentially getting more flow than est. of15-20% BTC ETF AUM. Not a likely case but you may want to consider: - Equity market cap as a whole much larger than gold / bitcoin, justification for business > store of value. - Equity bros love to overanalyze complex stuff + things they can value + yield; it's intellectually more satisfying than "herp derp digital gold". I think non-zero chance wall-street thinks of ETH like a large-cap tech stonk and analyze / ape accordingly. Surprisingly it might be an easier thing to pitch internally to large long/short equity or long-onlys. The Bitcoin / currency debasement pitch is too far out the tradfi framework for most analysts and pms.

How $NFTX financialized NFTs is rather clever. Wrapping ERC-721 into divisible ERC-20 tokens is basically issuing NFT-backed-tokens (similar to ABS) which can interact with broader #DeFi ecosystem. Price of said ERC-20 represents a rough median market-clearing px of underlying.

The flywheel in $GMT dictates that: - if Gas Hero is a success (pending Dec 23 launch), a lot of $GMT will be locked-up / staked (for meta game) and burned (for progression) - the beta in crypto + demand dynamic above driving GMT upward can hopefully offset inflationary pressure from Stepn itself - if $GMT were to go up thanks to this supply/demand shift, economics on Stepn shoes will improve meaningfully, driving shoe prices, which drives GST prices (re: upgrades) - the wealth effect / big ROI with now cleaner fiat on/off-ramp should drive more 2C interest assuming team iterates the app further. - Rekindled mass market interest may drive DAU / GST metrics again and we get a 2nd wind similar to mid-2022 -- further driving $GMT given KPI growth and sinks to upgrade. Personally hopeful of this playing out given out sizable interest and ownership in the ecosystem. Looking forward to also updating you w/ internal testing of Gas Hero coming up.

Viewing 2% of people owning 98% of the wealth as “wealth inequality” is classic old-paradigm thinking. The new paradigm is 2% of the people owning 120% of the wealth, while the remaining 98% of people carry 120% debt to asset (I.e. negative 20% net-worth)

idk why it feels like $MEGA is gonna be massively oversubbed and people get less than the allo they want and just slam long on hyperliquid and liquidate the pre-hedgoooors who got the allo xpl style

- US wakes up - News outlets - Social media - Maybe Musk retweet - Major CEX listings - Likely the only pure-play of attention (mkt closed Monday) - Claim presidential immunity when he’s in; last commercial activity until sworn in. Could see a lot higher in 48 hours.

Half my tradfi friends are so livid about fartcoin and the other half found it so funny that they asked me to buy it for them. Probably higher.

idk about u but $ENA is at a really cool spot of the cycle where it should enjoy all of the tailwind: - DATs nonstop bidding - ...which also enjoy the stablecoin narrative - where short trades are trading down - ... and crypto basis heating up w/ DATs + price, so the UST - crypto spread widens w/ good liquidity - Bafin risk lifted so maybe soon buyback - ETH & DeFi exposure - Maybe soon HIP3 leverage w/ USDE underlying - and HUSDE capturing $HYPE basis adding fees

I’m as midcurve as it gets re: meme tokens but I bought some $GOAT because I find its virgin birth as the 1st AI designed memecoin infinitely fascinating and imagination-evoking. I can’t recall another meme that I got converted like this in the past 1-2 years Do with this information what you will. I could see Web2 VCs feel the same way after finding out.

He's technical, and he's crypto-native. But use-case / business-model beats technicality, and GTM / execution beats nativeness, and that's what you will see in the next phase of Web3.

AMZN - everything store but no self-owned storefront Uber - "taxi" network but no self-owned cars Airbnb - "hotel" network but no self-owned buildings #DeFi - everything finance but no self-operated balance sheet

We are delighted to announce the promotion of @0xAikoDai to Venture Partner at Folius. Aiko has been a driving force behind our success, bringing passion, dedication, and unparalleled expertise to our team. Her innovative vision and steadfast commitment have made a significant impact, and we are excited to see her thrive in this new role. Congrats Aiko! And many thanks to your hard work and achievements so far.

The local top of BTC and this dip is ETH+ Web3 / DeFi's baptism by fire prepping for the eventual de-coupling and a much needed reality check into the L2 scaling + EIP-1559 packed summer. The global top of adoption and awareness, I believe, remains years away.

$ACT - found the story and dug - loved it, aped - got rekt because dev dumped - sodl at loss because thesis broken - Binance - missed 10x and big sadge Will probably see many of such cases the next 1-2 months across the space Thesis: bidclub.io/posts/cm2mnvs2y00…

We also recently took a position in $MYTH and think the SOTP narrative could be interesting if the team can execute on: - Mobile Party Game capturing the big TAM via Blankos - 1p / 3p capture with broad US studios after NFL proving its uplift in revenue via marketplace - Gaming infra play narrative picking up steam, and - "Fastest horse on DOT" narrative (similar to $TAO) There seems to be a clear path to hopefully 3-5x assuming the team executes on the SOTP roadmap above, showing numbers (like Dune, webpage, notion, like-for-like comps, etc), and pulling an IMX while getting uplisted across major CEX's w/ good MMs. The story going from subdued to pronounced means the coin at 100-150 mm circulating is mispriced vs. peers. More on our informational piece on BidClub: bidclub.io/posts/clvh0id8i00…

3 personal views: 1- DAO doesn't have to be Athenian democracy (in fact, it best not be). It's just an org structure 2- A P2E game design with assets of infinite ROI is like Christianity without hell 3- Defi is soon commoditized & a sub-feature of apps that own users & traffic

随便在巴黎闲逛，听着STEPN AMA，600刀到手。Web3真的蛮神奇。

If you as a chad / chadette: - Are interested in building something new with me in a tech + ops role now + deal-sourcing & investment next - Speak English + another language (or many!) - Speak fluent degen and can ape stronk Plz dm / am interested in chatting! Location agnostic

Looking forward to the days where I can upload legal docs for review and have ChatGPT add / rephrase / remove clauses and cut the legal bills by 80-90%

While it may be too premature to say so, the new 4 horseman "Crypto Altcoin App Beta" that tradfi bros could size into after doing some work in the next 2-3 years (like I did in DeFI summer circa 2020/21) would probably look something like this: - $HYPE (or top Perp Dex equivalent) - $POLYMARKET token - $ENA (or top stablecoin equivalent) - $PUMP.FUN token (or other social altcoin app) Sure they could buy the old kings like $UNI / $AAVE but I tend to think they want their own stuff.

Forgot who said it but it's as cogent as ever: Bull market produces bullshit, bear market bears fruit.

(0) Now that we have AMM, lend/borrow, derivative platforms, and potential L2 scaling solutions emerging, I think it’s about time where we start seeing active / passive management products emerge, where users can benefit from someone else’s alpha without losing custody.

(0) While the progress of L2 is on-going, I think another area within #DeFi is highly interesting today and remains slightly underexplored by buidlers and speculators / investors alike – tools & modularization add-ons ($GRT, $Gauntlet, $KP3R, $GYSR)

So are people sending @banteg death threats now because they accidentally 100% tip after getting rekt on $EMN I mean <80 IQ is the next best thing after >130 IQ but I didn't know people can actually go below 50.

Soon enough people in crypto will also learn corporate finance 301 where companies with bad corporate governance is not a buy at any price because the C-Suite find all kinds of ways to fuck you and enrich themselves — and no amount of buyback or growth promises will save it until real management changes.

过去几周LP一直问我关于川普当选后的看法： - 短期来讲，12-2月份很可能price in绝大部分美国总统及新班底承诺的利好，整个市场火热到极致，价格短期见顶 - But make no mistake, 整个Web3行业的黄金时代即将在美国诞生。未来的4年将是美国Web2公司下场，最优创业者躬身入局，全球最大资本市场全面拥抱这个行业的一个周期。明牌长牛始于此，行业见顶无有时。You want to be max long and there is literally no top. - 对于亚洲来讲，这个时代应该是既让人亢奋又让人无奈的。前者来自于全球的登堂入室，而后者则来自于母国的不理解+不支持。对于Folius来讲，这里面危中有机、且是一个历史性机遇 -- 很期待在我们更多部署后和大家分享。

1- I may have spoken about this before, but I think it’s rather likely existing #DeFi protocols would vertically and horizontally expand into financial conglomerates. What’s 1 module of financial primitives would expand to a full suite of services

I dunno about you but after moving most of my spending & yield generation to crypto neobanks + onchain I think the traditional banks (starting from SMBs) are so fucked and it's just a matter of time.

It feels to me utterly financially irresponsible to not study Web3 / crypto / Bitcoin and allocate accordingly right now.

Given $ETH is basically cash for crypto-native funds, barring add'l catalysts it'd pump alongside everything dumping as some funds derisking into ETH. The leg for ETHBTC to moon would be contingent on: - S/D flip w/ Mt Gox x Celsius - Restaking induced ponzu forcing peeps to own ETH to make big pool X monies - BTC pumping hard = ETF good = OMG ETH ETF SOON - Everything else played out but ETH still solid upside + everyone "derisks" to ETH Would expect the 0.05x to 0.07-0.08 rerating to occur within a short 2-3 week window when the confluence of catalysts all happen at once.

Actually think $PUMP is getting interesting here. Arguably similar R:R vs it being at 2.5 Bn: - now consistent with its 97% buyback - recouped market share vs Bonk - probably more catalyst coming with new products. I wonder if they’d do a DAT? - SOL pumping and people may look for beta to chase. one of the top beta (and most profitable) also being new coin with no unlock - Upside convexity as market heats up maybe we get memecoin runners - Weak hand HF and retail from ICO all dumped to chase other stuff. If you diamond handed prob not selling here - As it goes higher I think it’s kind of a must-own for funds that allocate to the space. Upside reclexivity. Could see a case it chasing towards the top Defi coins (008-010 per token)

Can someone give me the TLDR on how $API3 differentiates from $LINK? As $GRT rips market focus is shifting to middleware and this one is the recent standout of a small-cap listing.

idk but someone over the next 3-5 years who own Polymarket Hyperliquid Pump.fun Robinhood Kaito Might do just fine and even outperform VCs / liquid funds who own a bunch of crypto betas like ETH / SOL / other currently liquid L1/L2s

$SUSHI goes to show that network effect businesses in the future would have to benefit all stakeholders instead of just equity owners, or risk being disrupted in the blink of an eye. Fascinating (and righteous) liquidity attack launched by the @NomiChef team.

0 – In the past, I have expressed my anticipation on elegant solutions re: non-callable lending – and expect many teams to throw their hats into the ring. @RulerProtocol is what I believe to the 1st valid attempt to take a crack at it (if you know others, dm me! @nftfi maybe?)

(0) There aren’t that many apps that straddle multi-chain, multi-layer (“MCML”) yet, so this is an under-explored area, but I think teams should really start thinking about aggregating such data. Let’s take $SUSHI as an example.

With another sizable clip of 4.7k MKR sent to Coinbase from a16z, I think they only have ~7k MKR left to sell, which by historical cadence is about 5 days of volume. A few whales showed up last couple of days buying some MKR (likely recognizing the thesis as CT heats up). Now is probably a good time to lay out the bull & bear case ahead. A reasonable target remains 1.6k-2k as the token would be priced on 20x FCF with ~80-100mm run-rate, but the next leg beyond that spells further execution risk: Bull case: - SubDao farming (4Q23-1Q24) -- using MKR + sDAI as LP pairs to farm tokens is good for MKR. Rune seems to want to make it happen faster - More pools like Blocktower-Andromeda coming -- allegedly clipping 50-100 bps is a good business so I think MKR is fielding a bunch of calls on this, good for FCF. - Name change and governance driving multi-chain DAI. Unsure of timeline but if MKR goes from 2k / token to 2 cents CT probably ape. Governance proposal needed to change Rune's mind I think going multi-chain. Bear case: - Everyone prob have the same numbers so we will all start dumping starting at 1.5-1.6k. This is the risk of a FCF-driven story -- no imagination-driven impulse higher. Subdao farming prob the impulse catalyst where a bunch of people exit. - DSR is gonna suck 70mm+ of FCF at 8% from the FCF stream. Maybe Rune can squeeze more out from existing pools to offset and maybe ppl will perceive DAI supply ramping again (debatable) as positive but risk remains here. - US rate cut, FCF goes poof, think you want to dump this ahead of that. - US reg risk as usual. One can argue maybe Paradigm + a16z know something. - A bunch of devs did quit and governance is a 1-man shop (Rune's), so it's really not a decentralized protocol anymore. U may not like the direction where it's mid-term going. Hard to argue it'd outperform ETH on an upcycle. I remain of the view that CT will likely chase this as it keeps going up post a16z being done. The narrative shall reach its peak when it outperforms degenspartan's entire portfolio ytd (COIN + LDO + BTC/ETH) where it'd require a reassessment as a trading call. You are welcome on the alfa.

A comp sheet I'm looking at. Presented without comments. Could be useful if you are into real tokens. Can't guarantee accuracy because I literally pulled it thru AI and some eyeballing.

btw this is probably as consensus as it goes amongst Web3 funds but: 1. NFTs = $BLUR 2. DEXs = $UNI 3. Deriv DEXs = $DYDX but I'm eyeing $VRTX launch 4. L2 = prob $ARB + $OP basket 5. Gambling = $RLB 6. AI = prob $AKT but we think Myshell when they have a token. 7. DePin = dunno 8. Oracle = $LINK 9. Memes = $MEME but some would say $PEPE Not investment advice obviously just observation.

Think alt-season is upon us.

Soon enough peeps in crypto will also learn corporate finance 201 where buyback at high valuation and peak of cycle is value destructive and best means of growing stakeholder value is via good capital allocation in high MOIC growth opportunities. But this is also rough because it kind of requires u to trust the management so

Setup into Jun / Jul / Aug now very interesting: - Granular policies / clarity from China on OTC + trading - Inflow into Web3 / DeFi funds bypassing BTC for fiat on-ramp - Arbitrum in a week + Optimism into June + EIP1559 for July - Fed balance sheet pot'l taper by end of summer.

I have no idea how they can possibly compete with - 8%+ yield that's instantly spendable - 0 latency USD transfer globally - Access to all financial instruments, no gates - Users getting paid upside for trying new stuff Honestly if I own a bank I'd either sell it asap or pivot immediately to Web3. The equity value of these things literally goes to 0 in the next decade.

I’d like to extend a very warm welcome to @Chrislulu816 in joining Folius. Chris will be heading our APAC venture efforts, with a previous tenure at Sequoia China and Redpoint China seeding consumer, SaaS, and Web3 startups. I can’t think of a better partner to join forces with.

Folius Web3 China Dev Report (2C App focused): EN: docsend.com/view/p4gzvvimwe7… CN: docsend.com/view/wtyk9aujbg7… If the APAC / China Web3 seed-stage 2C startup side of the world remains a mystery to you, we’ve put something together to offer our observations. Many thanks to @Chrislulu816 and @KD2Moon for penning the report. 2023 was the busiest year (especially in Q2 and Q4) for Folius’ private deal-making, and through looking at 25-50 projects / week (mostly Chinese founders) we’ve noticed some marked patterns that’s hard for our western friends to discern; namely: - We estimate a 15-20 mm total base of potential Chinese entrepreneurs which can distill down to 1-2 top-notch teams building Web3 projects per week over the coming 3 years. - Most don’t realize that the stark contrast between a rather unfriendly Web2 environment in China and the Web3 uptick is what’s driving most of these talents (aside from going into AI). - We generally think that the Web3 infra is matured enough for “Fat Applications” to finally emerge in the next 12-18 months. Tx cost, on-ramps, dev & modular solutions, and economic designs had gotten good. - We’ve notice marked patterns and habits of these entrepreneurs – they are great at some things and not so much on others. We distilled our view into 7 types of common strength and weaknesses respectively. - We also dived deep into what kind of businesses we think they are best suited in starting – namely 2C products with sizable DAU potential (content, platform, and creator-centric mostly), and gave a few examples of our portfolio companies. @GasHeroOfficial, @Stepnofficial, @Matr1xOfficial, @MetaCeneGame, @SleeplessAI_Lab, @0xMJM, @myshell_ai, @Memeland, @Ryzz_tv, @sparklefun2023, @JamboTechnology, @0xSpotlight. - There’s clearly a big list of solid infra companies we didn’t mention (like @Scroll_ZKP, @_kaitoai, @ChainbaseHQ, @DeBankDeFi, @megaeth and the likes). The tech is great, but given our time limit we can only cover 2C for now. We hope aspiring entrepreneurs in APAC and early-stage investors alike may enjoy this report as it attempts to paint a fuller picture of what’s out there. Folius is dedicated to backing especially founders in the APAC region – so you are building something cool, definitely reach out!

Since Talking about $GME is in vogue these days...here's the most shorted stocks currently on the street, wonder who's next. The larger HFs would almost certainly have to front-run this and degross when all the WSB degens are looking at this exact same pic.

1 tx soon = 1 ETH Few

Cogent. Where I drew my inspiration from.

Love your loved ones. Appreciate what your have Prepared for the next phase of the super cycle.

Funny comment when catching up with a friend at another fund: "$DOT is $EOS where the team actually tries". Touche!

MEGA

CT I need your help, would love to know if there's any mistakes / omissions of names / relationships on this picture -- especially glaring mistakes. Good answers will get my NFT if I ever issue one, lol <3<3<3

ECB Dovish + PBOC cut rates. FOMC Jan 26 set up well for more dovish stance from Jerome re: QE / QT + rates. Watch VIX, 10Y, ARKK / Nasdaq, and DXY closely. Path-dependent but reversal from hawkishness will be your signal to run it back turbo (until the Fed's tone changes again)

Ramping up hard on the Solana. If you may, please shill me your favorite resources on the background, ecosystem, and favorite projects in the space. Thanks CT!

Think we could be on the verge of a BTC L2 pump as memecoins rotate a bit. US has $STX China has $ORDI $SATS $CKB Then there’s some China L2 TGEs like Merlin with almost 3 Bn TVL that could drive some Asia induced fomo