NFL WEEK 6 DFS PREVIEW! SEAHAWKS at BENGALS: 🟢How popular is Ja’Marr Chase going to be this week against a pourous SEA DST after putting up 50?! 🟢If Higgins is out again, I’ll likely be overweight the field even at his $8,300 price tag coming off 43 targets his past 3 games. 🟢Burrow looked better last week, & at $6,300 against a bad DST, he will definitely make my player pool. 🟢Despite seeing 29 RB opportunities, Mixon continues to be the least effective RB in the league. He’s had 15 or more touches every week & has yet to exceed 14 DK points. Hopefully the field continues to roster him at sizable ownership. 🟢On the other side of the ball, Walker is only $400 more & has outscored Mixon every week (excluding week 5; SEA on bye). 🟢On the ground, the Seahawks gave up 3 TDs to Kyren/Akers in week 1, a rushing TD to Montgomery in week 2 and a rushing TD to Sanders in week 3, before bottling up the Barkley-less Giants in week 4. Hopefully Walker flys under the radar as I like the spot. 🟢Both Metcalf & Lockett are seeing around 6 targets a game, which likely isn’t the opportunity I’ll be focused on. COMMANDERS at FALCONS: 🔴I wasn’t on him, but I think we witnessed Ridder’s ceiling game for 2023 last week. The same can possibly be said for Sam Howell, who also exceeded 29 DK points. 🔴Both teams have been strong against the run, especially the Falcons. 🔴ATL is undefeated at home, while they have yet to surpass 7 points scored in their two road games. Feels like a game of evenly matched teams, but I would expect a slugfest of sorts, especially since ATL prefers to run the ball - best guess the game ends 21-17. 🔴Bijan and Allgeier likely too thin for their salaries splitting touches. 🔴Howell is coming off back to back games of 40+ pass attempts so Falcons D is interesting as Howell takes a lot of sacks and has been turnover prone (7 so far). 🔴ATL DST initially the only piece I’m considering. VIKINGS at BEARS: 🟧Both Chicago’s and Minnesota’s defenses have been bad. Bears have given up big DK scores to Aaron Jones, Romeo Doubs, Mike Evans, and Travis Kelce, while the Vikings got absolutely torched by Keenan Allen and Devonta Smith. 🟧Kelce also put up 20+ DK points so both DJ Moore and Cole Kmet feel like strong plays. 🟧Fields is coming off back to back 4TD games and the Bears offense seems to be humming. He’s Definitely in play this week along with his two primary pass catchers. 🟧Roschon Johnson also interesting at $4,600 if healthy, as Herbert will miss the game with a high ankle sprain. 🟧On MIN side - Justin Jefferson was placed on IR this morning, which likely leads to a ton of ownership on Vikings individual pieces by the field. 🟧The Bears gave up 2TDs to both Aaron Jones and Jerick McKinnon, while Jaleel McLaughlin had 19 DK points - Mattison extremely interesting as other pass catching RB’s have had strong success. 🟧However, a Vikings over-stack was my first thought. A bold strategy would be rostering 2 or 3 of the main 4 - Addison / Hockenson / Osborn / Mattison across a wide range of your rosters. 🟧This approach likely has you to get several rosters that avoid the one or two duds and could be in consideration for one of JM’s famous player blocks. NINERS at BROWNS: 🟫The 49ers continue to look like (one of) the best teams after dismantling Dallas on SNF. The 49ers have kept Purdy under 30 pass attempts in 4 of 5 games this season, however he continues to get there in terms of DK points on great efficiency. 🟫Both DST have been strong, and I think SF could be a sneaky pay up to be contrarian play as the Browns will likely be trailing (and passing more). 🟫At $4k the Niners should be low owned as DFS players have been engrained to think always pay down at DST. 🟫Amari Cooper would be interesting to me (at likely low ownership) if Watson plays, as SF has given up some big production to WRs (Brown & Wilson combined for a 14–172-2 for AZ in week 4 & Nacua & Atwell combined for a 22-224-0 for LAR in week 2). 🟫For SF, CMC is always in play but at $9,500, it’s hard for me to get there against a solid CLE DST SAINTS at TEXANS: ⚪️Hard to ignore Kamara’s usage - He’s had 25 opportunities in both games since returning from suspension and has been effective. ⚪️At $6,800 in a plus matchup, he’s likely to make my final player pool. On the other side of the ball, Pierce continues to see the lion’s share of the work (20+ rushes in back to back weeks) while also seeing a handful of targets. ⚪️While he’s yet to pay off his salary, at $5,100, feels like a spot to go right back to him. At WR, Tank Dell has been a fantasy darling for us OWS folks all season, but is now in the concussion protocol. ⚪️If he’s unable to go, I think I’ll be on Robert Woods (ducks). At $3,800 he’s been consistently involved, with a minimum of 6 targets every game and the field refuses to play him. ⚪️Unlike Wan’Dale last week, Woods actually has ceiling. While I’ve been impressed with Stroud, I doubt I’ll have interest in him (or Carr) this week. COLTS at JAGUARS: 🟦These teams meet for the second time this season - Jags won 31-21 in week 1, although they’ll be facing a different Colt’s QB this week in (ex-Jag) Gardner Minshew. 🟦Initially both QBs are in play for me this week as Lawerence is throwing a good bit (2 games over 40 attempts) and Minshew is only $5k in a “revenge” game. 🟦At RB, Etienne has been a true workhorse back and is averaging 19 rushes and over 4 targets a week. As detailed last week, Indy has given up big games to RBs: Kyren Williams - 128 total yards, 2 TD Lamar / Edwards / MG3 - 180 rushing yards and 2 TD Henry/Spears - 140 total yards, 1 TD Etienne/Bigsby - 117 total yards, 2 TDs. I do like the JAX WRs too, so potential interest in game stacks PANTHERS at DOLPHINS: ◼️Poor offenses (ATL/NO/SEA) have faired well against CAR as have more competent offenses (DET / MIN). Here comes the Dolphins - with Achane likely to multiple weeks, this MIA offense gets even more condensed. ◼️At $6,400, I will most certainly be overweight the field on Mostert. Tyreek Hill has three 33+ point outings already (including 35 DK points Sunday), despite his buddy Jaylen Waddle seeing a season high 10 targets. ◼️Might be a one minimum one Dolphin per roster for me this week with Tua doubles in play. ◼️On the Carolina side, Bryce Young is interesting at $5,100, although I’m most interested in Adam Theilen. He has 44 targets the past 4 weeks and CAR is likelier than not to be playing from behind. LATE GAMES🕓 PATRIOTS at RAIDERS: ◻️Luckily DK priced up the Raiders DST or they’d be the highest owned of the week after the recent performances by Mac Jones and this putrid Patriots offense. ◻️While the Pats WRs are super cheap, NE only has 18 total points the past 3 weeks. Josh Jacobs my only initial interest in this game LIONS at BUCCANEERS: 🟥Although the matchup isn’t daunting, Goff plays considerably better at home so this is likely an avoid spot for me. 🟥Baker has been pretty consistent and the Lions DST has given up points to the QB position. Initially in consideration for me at $5,400, although his pass catchers are too expensive for the likeliest outcomes. Montgomery was effective last week at high ownership in a great spot. 🟥At $7,300 on the road with Gibbs (and ARSB) likely back, that feels way to expensive for a yardage and TD back. Might end up being a spot I avoid as it’s probably hard for anyone to put up a price considering score you had to have. 🟥Although the Lions DST at $2,700 might be my favorite pay down option. CARDINALS at RAMS: 🟡Stafford is averaging 40+ pass attempts per game this season, and the Cardinals D has given up 4 or more TDs in 60% of their games this season. Interestingly they’ve also given up QB rushing TDs to Purdy, Howell and Daniel Jones this season. 🟡All the Rams are in play (Kyren/Kupp/Pacua/Atwell) but all are expensive. Kupp stepped right back into the role we’ve been accustomed to him (8-118 on 12 targets), but $9,000 isn’t exactly a bargain. 🟡On the Cardinals side, Hollywood Brown saw 10 targets for the 3rd time in the past 4 games - Definitely in play at $5,100. 🟡If James Conner misses, undrafted rookie Emari Demercado is interesting at sub-$5k as he was the only RB to get a carry after Conner’s knee injury. EAGLES at JETS: 🟩Sets up a battle of one of the best offenses against one of the best defenses. None of the Jets offensive pieces are of interest despite WRs success against the Eagles as I just don’t trust Zack Wilson. 🟩On the Eagles side of the ball, I was immediately drawn to Swift (not Taylor Swift) at $6,100 as he’s seen workhorse type usage the past four weeks (averaging 19 carries and 3.5 receptions). 🟩The matchup might scare people off, but I’d rather play Swift than Breece Hall for $100 more as the Eagles run D has been solid. 🟩At $8,200 on the road, Hurts is probably too expensive for my liking, as his season high 31.3 DK points isn’t even 4x his salary and I respect the Jets D unit. 🟩Both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith could have big games, but would need 30+ to hurt you, and thus likely won’t make my pool this week. FINAL THOUGHTS 🏈With 11 games on the main slate we are likely back to a higher scoring week to take down larger tournaments so try to remember not only what each play adds to your but what you’re potentially sacrificing. 🏈Two highest Vegas implied team totals are in the late window (Eagles and Rams) so keep that in mind while constructing rosters. All Edge games will be available on the site by Thursday night! -@wgabelman

NFL DFS: WEEK 3 A first look at this weeks massive 13-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. FALCONS (24.75) 🪶AT PANTHERS (18.75)⚫️ 🪶The Falcons open the week with the third highest implied team total, only ¾ of a point less than both Tampa Bay and Dallas, however this spot doesn’t stand out to me for Michael Penix or the Falcons WRs. ⚫️The Panthers defense kept both Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray under 225 yards passing. ⚫️However, on the ground, they allowed Travis Etienne to account for 156 total yards on 19 touches, while the duo of James Conner and Trey Benson accumulated 96 yards and a TD on 19 combined 19 touches. 🪶Now they face a more talented back in Bijan Robinson, who has exceeded 120 total yards in both games this season. Even at $7,900, he jumps out early on in the week. ⚫️Through the air, rookie Tet McMillan continues to be the focal point for the Panthers, with 31% and 40% target share and would be my favorite correlation with Bijan in this game. PACKERS (24.5) 🧀AT BROWNS (17)🟤 🧀The Packers are a TD favorite here on the road, but again, not a spot that stands out for the QB position. 🟤Despite facing elite QBs in Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, Cleveland’s defense only allowed 338 passing yards to them combined, while limiting Lamar to just 13 rush yards. 🧀Green Bay’s defense has also been stingy to opposing QBs, holding Jared Goff to 225 yards and Jayden Daniels to 200 passing yards (he also added 17 rushing yards). 🧀The two best fantasy games against GB have come through the opposing TEs, with Sam LaPorta (6-79) and Zach Ertz (6-64-1). 🟤Rookie TE Harold Fannin has out targeted and out produced David Njoku both games converting 14 targets into 111 receiving yards. At $3,600, he appears to be an early favorite if paying down at TE. 🧀On the other side of the ball, the Jayden Reed injury (collarbone), will likely lead to increased opportunity for Dontayvion Wicks, Malik Heath, and Savion Williams. 🧀Wicks initially stands out to me at $3,700 as he’s played north of 45% of the offensive snaps both weeks. 🧀On the ground, Josh Jacobs has been a workhorse for GB, however the Browns limited Chase Brown to 43 rush yards on 21 touches, and Derrick Henry to just 23 total yards. TEXANS (21.5) 🐂AT JAGUARS (22.5)😼 🐂Despite starting 0-2, Houston has only allowed 34 points through two games and initially not a spot I want to focus on targeting opposing offenses, however a case can be made for Travis Etienne. 😼Etienne has been effective this season, with touch counts of 19 and 16, and the Texans have allowed opposing RBs (Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Rachaad White and Bucky Irving) to average 4.9 yards per touch against them this season. 😼Etienne also operates as the goal line back, and Houston has allowed rushing TDs in both games thus far. 🐂On the Texans side of the ball, this feels like a good bounce back spot for Nico Collins, as the Jags just allowed a monster 14-165-1 game to Ja’Marr Chase (with Jake Browning at QB). BENGALS (19.25) 🐯AT VIKINGS (22.25)🪓 🏈The big news here unfortunately is injury focused with this likely to be a matchup of Jake Browning versus Carson Wentz. 🪓The Bengals allowed 290 yards to Joe Flacco and 271 to Trevor Lawrence already this year, and while both QBs are intriguing, Wentz, at the stone minimum ($4k), and a solid skill position cast around him, jumps out here. 🪓On the ground, Aaron Jones was placed on IR this week, which will likely lead to off-season free agent acquisition Jordan Mason to see 15-20 touches. At $5,400 and with some pass game involvement, he also stands out as a strong early week value. 🐯On the other side of the ball, Chase Brown is also interesting as he’s seen 100% of the rush attempts thus far for CIN and is facing a Viking defense that just allowed 248 yards (and a TD) to Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. 🏈Through the air, both Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are considerations every week, and with the value available on the slate this week due to injuries, both are intriguing as part of a bet on this game to exceed expectations. STEELERS (23) 🟨AT PATRIOTS (21.5)🟦 🟦Through the air, an interesting spot for Drake Maye at $5,300, coming off a solid road performance against Miami. 🟨The Steelers allowed games of 266 and 295 total yards and multiple scores to Justin Fields and Sam Darnold already this season. 🟦On the ground, the New England backfield has some appeal as the Steelers allowed a 100-yard rusher in both games (Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker). 🟦However, the split nature of their rushing attack makes it hard to get really excited about the spot as TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson don’t offer any price discount to Jordan Mason ($5,400) in the aforementioned game. 🟨Through the air, the Steelers have allowed solid games to both WR1s they’ve faced with Garrett Wilson (7-95-1) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8-103-0) both surpassing 20 DK points. 🟦The Patriots don’t have a standout WR1 with Stefon Diggs still working his way back from injury, but both Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are interesting at sub-$5k prices. 🟨On the Steelers side of the ball, DK Metcalf is interesting at $5,700 as the Patriots have allowed strong games to Jakobi Meyers (8-97), Brock Bowers (5-103) and Tyreek Hill (6-109) already this season. RAMS (20.5) 🐑AT EAGLES (24)🦅 🐑The LA Rams have been stout defensively, only allowing 28 points against, and are not a team I want to go out of my way to target opposing offenses against, especially on a 13 game slate. 🦅Saquon Barkley is in play every week, but I much prefer Bijan Robinson for just $100 more upon first pass if paying up at the RB position. 🏈The Eagles defense also presents a difficult matchup across the board with Puka Nacua being my favorite consideration from the Rams offense. Overall, a game I will likely avoid. JETS (18.75) ✈️AT BUCCANEERS (25.25)🏴‍☠️ ✈️The Jets are a team that wants to run the ball, which sets up poorly against this Buccaneers defense that kept Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Nick Chubb all to under 44 yards rushing. ✈️QB Justin Fields sustained a concussion in week two, and if he’s unable to go, Tyrod Taylor would draw the start. At $4,800, he doesn’t stand out among several other pay down options at QB. 🏴‍☠️For TB, Bucky Irving is the most intriguing option as I expect the Buccaneers to control this game and the Jets just allowed James Cook to rush for 132 yards and two touchdowns last week. 🏴‍☠️Through the air, both Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are interesting but don’t stand out in this matchup, as my favorite plays from this game early on are Irving and the Bucs DST. COLTS (23.5) 🐴AT TITANS (20)⚔️ ⚔️On the ground, a better matchup than it appears for Tony Pollard as De’Von Achane and J.K. Dobbins averaged 7.5 and 5.7 yards per touch against the Indy defense, while both adding touchdowns. Pollard has seen 19 and 21 opportunities through two games and is only $5,700. 🐴Through the air, Troy Franklin is the only pass catcher to exceed 40 receiving yards against the Colts, mostly due to his 42 yard deep reception in the first half last week. ⚔️Despite this, Elic Ayomanor continues to see heavy usage for the Titans, and is interesting at only $3,700. 🐴On the Colts side of the ball, I think the matchup is also better than it appears for Daniel Jones who has produced solid performances against DEN and MIA already this season. 🐴Along with Daniel Jones, the three main passing options for Indy (Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and Tyler Warren) are also interesting and are all priced in the $4k range. RAIDERS (20.25) ☠️AT COMMANDERS (23.75)⛑️ ⛑️Another game with some major injury news. Jayden Daniels suffered a knee injury and his status for week 3 is up in the air as of the time of this writing. ⛑️If he were to miss, Marcus Mariota would draw the start and would offer another intriguing option at the stone minimum price for a QB ($4,000). ☠️The Raiders would be traveling cross-country on a short week after allowing both Drake Maye and Justin Herbert to have above average games - 298 total yards for Maye and 273 yards for Herbert. ⛑️Early on, Deebo Samuel is the most intriguing WAS pass catcher, with 18 targets through 2 games, as well as both rushing and receiving TDs already. ☠️On the other side of the ball, Brock Bowers jumps off the page a week after Tucker Kraft shredded this WAS defense for 124 yards and a TD, and is priced at just $6,000. BRONCOS (21.5) 🟠AT CHARGERS (24.5)⚡️ 🏈While the first game of the afternoon window features a solid Vegas total of 46, it also has two defenses that I expect to finish the season in the top 10 of the league. 🏈Justin Herbert and Bo Nix both are fairly priced ($6,200 and $5,800 respectively), however neither stands out to me in this matchup. ⚡️Week 2 saw Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris split the backfield work for LAC, with Najee out-touching Hampton 10-9. Against this defense, not a spot I’m drawn to this potentially split backfield. 🟠Through the air, Troy Franklin at $4,000 is the most intriguing option initially as he’s seen 15 targets thus far, and led the team in WR snaps last week. Outside of some one-offs of Franklin, this feels like a game I may have little exposure to. SAINTS (17) 🟡AT SEAHAWKS (24.5)🟢 🟢An above average spot for Sam Darnold, but with so much potential value at the position this week, I’m not sure I’ll get to him without any rushing upside. 🟢On the ground, Zach Charbonnet quietly out-snapped Ken Walker for the second straight week, however neither SEA RB offers much pass game upside. Charbonnet is an interesting bet on talent and potential changing of the guard at just $4,800. 🟡Through the air both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jauan Jennings (each team’s de-facto WR1) both had their best game of the season against New Orleans. 🟢Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off back to back double digit target games, producing 100+ receiving yards in both. At $6,500 he’s one of my favorite WR plays on the entire slate. 🟡On the other side of the ball, both Chris Olave ($5,100) and TE Juwan Johnson ($3,900) continued to get peppered with targets from Spencer Rattler and are both intriguing options again this week. COWBOYS (25.5) 🤠AT BEARS (24.5)🐻 🤠A week after allowing Jared Goff to throw 334 yards and 5 TDs, the Bears welcome Dak Prescott to town, who is coming off a 361-2 performance of his own. Dak is priced at just $5,900, and stands out as another strong QB option this week. 🤠Through the air, CeeDee Lamb has exceeded 100 receiving yards in both games this season. Now facing this Bears defense that just allowed games of 9-115-3 to Amon-Ra St. Brown and 2-108-1 to Jameson Williams, this feels like a smash spot for Lamb. 🐻On the other side of the ball, Rome Odunze exploded for 128 yards and 2 TDs last week, and now faces a Dallas defense that allowed lines of 8-142-1 to Wan’Dale Robinson and 9-167-2 to Malik Nabers last week. 🐻At $5,300, Odunze also stands out as a strong on-paper play in this matchup and a game that catches my eye to potentially build around. 🏈DJ Moore, George Pickens and Cole Kmet can also be considered if stacking this game. CARDINALS (21) 🔴AT 49ERS (22.5)⛏️ ⛏️The final game features the most expensive player on the slate in Christian McCaffrey, whose role has been massive thus far, averaging 26 opportunities a game. Even at $8,200, he’s a consideration every week and this week is no different. ⛏️Mac Jones is set to start for the 49ers again this week, and saw his price jump to $5,000 after a solid performance (279 yards and 3 TDs) last week. 🏈Against this Cardinals defense that just allowed 328 yards and 3 TDs to Bryce Young, Mac Jones is of initial interest to me again this week. 🔴The matchup on the ground is middling for AZ, and with that backfield forming more of a timeshare between James Conner and Trey Benson, it’s not a spot that stands out upon initial review. 🔴Through the air, SF has given up solid games to their opponent’s top pass catcher, and at $5,700 Trey McBride stands out as a strong option here. ⛏️Along with CMC, I also have initial interest in Jauan Jennings at $5,000 after his 10 targets last week. Upon first pass, the Defensive units that stood out to me were: SEA, TB, WAS, NE and LAR NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

NFL DFS: WEEK 2 A first look at this weeks 12-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. BROWNS (16.75) 🟤AT RAVENS (28.25)🟣 🟤I’m not sure it’s going to be sneaky, but this feels like another good spot for Joe Flacco. Coming off 45 pass attempts for 290 yards, in a game I expect the Browns to be chasing, Flacco stands out at just $5k flat. 🟤On the ground, rookie Dylan Sampson saw 20 touches last week, including 8 receptions. Assuming Quinshon Judkins is inactive, Sampson stands out as a potential pairing partner with Flacco and is only $5,200. 🟣On the other side of the ball, Derrick Henry had 182 total yards and 2 TDs in week one, and should continue to be the focal point of this Ravens offense. 🟣Zay Flowers led the way for Baltimore last week and appears poised to take a step forward this season. His price has elevated to $6,200 but I intially like him in lineups built around this being a high scoring affair. 🟤For the Browns, Cedric Tillman and rookie TE Harold Fannin stand out at their modest prices. JAGUARS (22.5) 😼AT BENGALS (26)🐯 🐯Joe Burrow struggled mightily last week, passing for only 113 yards, however this is a spot that stands out as a strong bounce back spot for the Bengals offense. 😼On the other side of the ball, Trevor Lawrence didn’t have to do much against Carolina last week, but this also sets up well for him in a possible shootout. 😼The Jaguars traded Tank Bigsby (their co-starting RB in week 1), to the Eagles, signaling their confidence in Travis Etienne. At $5,700 and with involvement in the pass game, Etienne is an intriguing option. 🐯On the other side of the ball, Chase Brown wasn’t effective in week 1, but was the only Bengal to receive a carry. His 23 touches certainly keeps in him in early consideration as a strong bet on volume play. 🐯Ja’Marr Chase and Brian Thomas Jr. disappointed in week 1, but both saw a price drop for week 2 in what could be a very friendly fantasy environment. GIANTS (19.25) 🔵AT COWBOYS (25.25)🤠 🔵The Eagles held A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to 24 yards on 4 catches last week, which doesn’t bode well for Malik Nabers, especially after how uninspiring Russell Wilson looked in week 1. 🤠CeeDee Lamb is priced as the 2nd most expensive WR on the slate, after converting 13 targets into 110 yards last week. He’s in play every week, but initially I prefer Brian Thomas for less or Ja’Marr Chase for $300 more. 🤠On the ground, Javonte Williams converted 17 touches into 20+ fantasy points, but doesn’t stand out here against an above average Giants D. BEARS (20.75)🐻 AT LIONS (26.25)🦁 🦁The Lions struggled last week, but Jared Goff historically has fared significantly better indoors. He doesn’t stand out initially here though however. 🐻Caleb Williams started the MNF game on fire, but didn’t do much after an opening drive TD. He’s only $5,400 and his rushing upside is interesting, but a divisional matchup on the road on a short week isn’t appealing. 🦁On the ground, David Montgomery out carried Jahmyr Gibbs in a game they were losing throughout. Gibbs salvaged his day with 10 (!!) receptions, but doesn’t stand out here either. 🐻On the other side of the ball, D'Andre Swift was the only Bears RB to receive a rushing attempt, but only averaged 3 yards a carry. Despite the inefficiency, Swift did see 20 touches and at $5,700 that volume is intriguing. 🐻Through the air, Rome Odunze played 94% of the offensive snaps and saw 9 targets, which aligned with preseason reports that Chicago would try to feature him more. At $4,800, he’s my early favorite play from this game. PATRIOTS (21) 🟦AT DOLPHINS (22)🐬 🐬After allowing Daniel Jones to look like Joe Montana in his prime on Sunday, the Dolphins welcome Drake Maye to Miami this week. 🟦Maye set a career high for pass attempts (46) last week, while continuing to work in designed runs. At $5,200 he’s probably my favorite pay down option at QB. 🏈While Tua struggled last week, Geno Smith had a big day with 362 passing yards as did Jakobi Meyers (8-97) and Brock Bowers (5-103) against this Patriot defense. 🏈I doubt this matchup will catch the eye of many, but it’s a game environment that stands out to me initially. 🏈Through the air, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Kayshon Boutte are interesting, as is TE Hunter Henry. 49ERS (23.25)⛏️ AT SAINTS (19)🟡 ⛏️Big news here is the injury status around the 49ers. SF placed George Kittle on IR Tuesday morning. Jauan Jennings suffered a shoulder injury, but the Niners haven’t released an injury update on his situation yet. ⛏️If Jennings misses or is limited, a rule of at least one of Ricky Pearsall or Christian McCaffrey feels appropriate as I expect the offense to be completed condensed around those two. 🟡On the other side of the ball, Chris Olave is coming off a 12 target game, and saw his price DROP to $4,900. He stands out as a screaming value here as well. ⛏️Jauan Jennings and SF backup TE Jake Tonges are both intriguing pay down options as well. BILLS (26.25) 🦬AT JETS (20)✈️ ✈️If you had to guess which week 2 matchup consisted of the two highest combined scoring teams in week one (with 72 combined points), and you guessed the Jets, then Bravo to you. ✈️After giving up 34 points to Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, the Jets host Josh Allen this week and this spot stands out for both offenses. ✈️Along with both QBs, Garrett Wilson is initially interesting as Zay Flowers just put up a 7-143-1 line against BUF last week and played on 100% of the offensive snaps. ✈️Breece Hall saw 23 touches last week, and at $6,200 also caught my eye in this spot. 🦬On the Buffalo side, Keon Coleman led the team with 88% of the offensive snaps, and is just $5,100. SEAHAWKS (18.5) 🟢AT STEELERS (21.5)🟨 🏈Despite Pittsburgh’s success last week, this isn’t an offense or game environment that stands out to me. I would expect both teams to lean on the run, however the nature of each split backfield generates very little interest from me. 🟢The only player of initial interest is Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at $6,000. JSN saw 13 targets last week and was the only Seahawk with more than 3 targets. He figures to be heavily involved again this week. RAMS (23.75) 🐑AT TITANS (18.25)⚔️ 🏈A matchup between two defenses that held their week one opponent to 20 or less points, this isn’t a game environment that jumps out to me initially at all. 🐑On the ground, Kyren Williams is at least intriguing as he saw 95% of the teams rush attempts, and the Titans allowed 133 yards and a TD on 22 rushes to the combination of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey last week. ⚔️Tony Pollard operated as a bell cow back last week, however the Texans RBs only totaled 77 yards on 21 attempts last week against this Rams defense. 🐑Through the air, Puka Nacua converted 11 targets into 130 yards and is a consideration every week, however my favorite player in this game is the LA defense. PANTHERS (19.25) ⚫️AT CARDINALS (25.75)🔴 🔴Neither QB stands out here as I don’t think we’ll see more than 35 pass attempts out of Arizona in a game they likely control throughout. 🏈On the ground, both James Conner and Chuba Hubbard set up well, but neither scares me at their price. 🔴Through the air, Trey McBride continued where he left off last season as the primary focal point of this pass attack, and saw his price drop to $6k. Initially, he’s my favorite play at the TE position on the slate. ⚫️On the Panthers side of the ball, rookie WR Tet McMillan was the unquestioned top wideout, however Xavier Legette saw 7 targets and is priced at only $3,900. He’s an intriguing punt option at the position. BRONCOS (22.25) 🟠AT COLTS (20.75)🐴 🏈This may be a battle of top defenses as Denver and Indy held their opponents to a combined 20 points in week one. 🏈Both QBs are fairly priced, but neither jumps out upon first pass. 🐴On the ground, Jonathan Taylor saw 21 touches last week and would be a bet on volume in a tough on paper matchup. 🟠The Broncos absolutely suffocated the pass attack of the Titans last week, leaving my only initial interest in TE Tyler Warren at $4,500. EAGLES (24) 🦅AT CHIEFS (23)🏹 🏈A matchup of last year’s Super Bowl, both teams come in to this game after shaky week one performances. 🏹The Chiefs looked overmatched against the Chargers and will likely be without both Rashee Rice (suspension) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder). 🏹Coming off 16 (!!!) targets last week, Hollywood Brown should operate as the WR1 and at only $5,200 will likely garner some heavy ownership. 🏹Patrick Mahomes saw his price rise to $6,200, however he’s topped 29 fantasy points only once in his last 45 starts. 🦅The Eagles played a tight game against DAL last week where their offense continued to flow through Saquon Barkley (and Jalen Hurts’ legs) in week one. 🦅Barkley is expensive at $8,000, but of initial interest to me in what will likely be the late game hammer. Upon first pass, the DST units that stood out to me were: SF, LAR, NE and CHI NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

NFL DFS: WEEK 6 A first look at the 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL COMMANDERS (23) ⛑️AT RAVENS (29.5) 🐦‍⬛ ⛑️Washington prefers to attack on the ground and Baltimore has stifled every backfield they’ve faced this season. ⛑️Against BAL, Isiah Pacheco produced the best RB game of the season back in week 1 with 15 DK points (45 yards rushing, 2 catches for 33 yards and a TD), and thus, it's hard to get excited about Ekeler or Robinson here. 🐦‍⬛On the other side of the ball, the matchup sets up well for Henry, as every RB that saw 10 or more rush attempts produced a solid game - 106 total yards for Rachaad White, 95 yards and a TD for Singletary, 97 total yards and a TD for Zack Moss, and 113 total yards and a TD for James Conner. ⛑️As noted last week, the Commanders secondary has been a welcome sight to opposing WRs allowing games of 6-118-2 to Ja’Marr Chase, 10-127-1 to Malik Nabers, 8-83-1 to Chris Godwin, and 5-61-2 to Mike Evans. 🐦‍⬛The same can be said for the Baltimore secondary as they’ve allowed games of 10-193-2 to Chase, 9-83-2 to Higgins, 7-103 to Rashee Rice and 9-110-1 to Davante Adams. 🏈This game environment sets up well through the air, and I expect to have interest in both QBs, Flowers, McLaurin and both team’s TEs. CARDINALS (22) 🐦AT PACKERS (27)🧀 🐦This is a great spot for James Conner, who has seen 19 or more touches in 4 of 5 Cardinals’ games this season. 🧀The Packers have been generous to opposing RBs this season, allowing games of (total yards) 132 to Saquon Barkley, 135 to Jonathan Taylor, 137 to Aaron Jones and 105 to Kyren Williams last week. 🐦Arizona has also been a friendly matchup to opposing RBs, allowing 98 or more total yards to James Cook, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Robinson and Jordan Mason. A spot I’ll have some interest in both Jacobs and Conner. 🐦Through the air, the matchup is good for Marvin Harrison, but he’s yet to surpass 5 receptions in a game, which makes his $7,200 price tag initially hard to swallow. 🧀I feel similarly about Jayden Reed, who only has exceeded 4 catches once all season and is also in the $7k price range on DK. 🧀Of note, Tucker Kraft saw a 37% price increase to $4,800, and is no longer the strong value he was early in the season. TEXANS (22.5) 🐂AT PATRIOTS (15.5) 🟦 🐂If Joe Mixon is unable to go, this could be an interesting spot for Dare Ogunbowale, who quietly saw 21 touches last week in 23-20 win over the Buffalo Bills and is only $4,800. 🟦On the other side of the ball the matchup is better than it appears on paper for Rhamondre Stevenson but initially it’s not a spot I’m drawn to. 🐂Through the air, Nico Collins is likely to miss, but DK has proactively priced up both Stefon Diggs ($7,400) and Tank Dell ($6,200) thus lessening my interest in them. 🟦On the other side of the ball, Ja’Lynn Polk is intriguing to me at $3,600 as he played all 60 offensive snaps last week and continues to draw targets (13 combined the last two weeks).  🟦Just saw Drake Maye was named the starter. He's my highest owned QB in Best Ball, so I'll probably have some interest at $5,000. BUCCANEERS (22.5) 🏴‍☠️AT SAINTS (19)🟡 🏴‍☠️Despite facing Barkley, Bijan, Gibbs, Montgomery and Brian Robinson already, the Bucs have yet to allow an RB to score 18 DK points, which initially makes me shy away from Kamara at $7,700. 🏴‍☠️On the ground, the matchup is middling for TB, but until we see Irving emerge as the lead back, hard to pay mid $5k for 12 touches. 🟡Through the air, Rashid Shaheed continues to lead the team in targets and receiving yards, yet his price has not moved in four weeks, despite his steady production of 16-21 point fantasy scores. Early on, he stands out as my favorite WR option in the mid-range. 🏴‍☠️On the other side of the ball, both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are in play in a game environment that could turn into a shootout. BROWNS (16.75) 🟤AT EAGLES (26.25)🦅 🦅Tougher matchup than it appears on paper for Barkley as the Browns haven’t allowed a rusher to top 67 yards this season, although they have allowed 6 rushing TDs through 5 games which inflates the stats. 🦅Same can be said for Jalen Hurts, as Cleveland hasn’t allowed a QB to throw for more than 238 yards yet. 🟤Initially I have no interest in Jerome Ford, as he’s yet to surpass 12 carries in a game. 🟤Through the air, this once again sets up as a great spot for Amari Cooper who has seen 8 or more targets in every game this season. 🦅DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown would both be interesting if either were to return from injury. COLTS (22.25) 🐴AT TITANS (21.25)⚔️ ⚔️I do have initial interest in Pollard (and Spears) as Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, and Tank Bigsby all eclipsed 100 yards against the Titans. 🐴No interest in the Colts RBs as TEN has been a tough matchup on the ground with Breece Hall’s 62 yards on 14 rush attempts the best to date. ⚔️On paper, the Titans D has been very strong against the pass, but that doesn’t factor in the opponent - Through 4 weeks they faced Skylar Thompson, Malik Willis, a 40 yr old Aaron Rodgers, and Caleb Williams making his NFL debut. 🐴If Flacco draws the start and the field is going to be off Pittman and Downs, I’ll likely have interest in both, especially paired with Pollard in a mini correlation. CHARGERS (19.5) ⚡️AT BRONCOS (16.5)🐎 🐎I legit think this Denver defense is one of the best in the league, and as Bo Nix continues to improve, they won’t spend as much time on the field defending. 🏈That said, no initial interest in either backfield in this one. Through the air, this is a very difficult matchup for both teams and probably not a game I’ll gravitate towards much at all in my builds outside of both defenses. STEELERS (19.75) 🟨AT RAIDERS (16.75)☠️ 🟨Mike Tomlin has already stated that both Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson are both doubtful, leaving the backfield to Najee Harris again. 🟨He’s yet to produce anything of note, but is once again interesting against a poor Raiders run defense that has already allowed (total yards - TDs) games of 139-1 to Dobbins, 96-1 to Henry, 169-1 to Hubbard, and 111-0 to Javonte Williams. ☠️The LV run game is a mess and I’ll have no interest there once again this weekend against a stout PIT team. ☠️As far as the passing game goes, my favorite piece in this game would be rookie TE, Brock Bowers, who saw 12 targets last week, especially if Adams were to miss again. FALCONS (26.25) 🪶AT PANTHERS (20.25)🐈‍⬛ 🪶On paper, this is a fantastic matchup for Bijan and Allgeier, as CAR has already surrendered 11 TDs to RBs through just 5 games. 🪶The game also looks strong through the air for Atlanta, and I have initial interest in Cousins as well as both Mooney and London. 🐈‍⬛Atlanta has also been an above average matchup for opposing WRs, and Diontae Johnson would appear to be the best on paper matchup if building around this game environment. LIONS (27.5) 🦁AT COWBOYS (24.5)🤠 🦁Definitely a spot I’ll have some interest in both Montgomery and Gibbs as Dallas has surrendered some absolute monster games to RBs already this season including 180 yards and 4 TDs to Alvin Kamara and 173 and 2 TDs to Derrick Henry. 🦁Detroit has been formidable against the run and not a spot I have initial interest in Rico Dowdle. With teams generally struggling to get the ground game going against DET, the Lions have allowed a 100+ yard WR (Kupp, Godwin, Metcalf) in 3 of their 4 games this season. 🤠With Brandon Cooks now on IR, this draws my attention to Jalen Tolbert as well as CeeDee Lamb. Jake Ferguson at the same price as Tolbert is also intriguing, especially with how thin the TE position this season. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: PIT, LAC, DEN, GB, DET and CLE That does it for this week. Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard in week 6. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

NFL DFS: WEEK 11 A first look at this weeks massive 11-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. PANTHERS (19.5) ⚫️ AT FALCONS (23) 🪶 🏈 Not a spot that stands out for either QB as both defenses have yet to allow a 300 yard passer all season. 🏈 The ground game is initially appealing on both sides. ⚫️ Rico Dowdle ($6,800) has taken the reins in the Carolina backfield, seeing 18 or more touches in five of the past six games, with over 25 touches in half those. 🪶 The Falcons just surrendered 286 total yards (and 3 TDs) to Jonathan Taylor last week. CMC also topped 200 yards with multiple scores on this Atlanta defense just 3 weeks ago. 🪶 The matchup is also interesting for Bijan Robinson, as Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs, and James Cook all topped 100 total yards against the Panthers in their previous 3 games. 🪶 Through the air, the matchup is better than it appears on paper for Drake London as Olave, Pickens, Waddle, and Diggs all topped 100 receiving yards against CAR. ⚫️ Additionally, Romeo Dobbs (7-91), Khalil Shakir (6-88-1) and Juwan Johnson (4-92-1) (as well as Olave) had solid outings against Carolina in the past 3 weeks. BUCCANEERS (21.25) ☠️ AT BILLS (26.75) 🦬 🦬 The Bills have been a bit of Jekyll and Hyde the past four games, with strong performances against KC and CAR, while shockingly unable to generate more than 14 points against MIA or ATL. 🦬 On paper, the Bucs offer a strong spot for Josh Allen as Michael Penix, Sam Darnold, Mac Jones, and Drake Maye all topped 280 yards against them. 🦬 If paying up at QB, Allen stands out as my favorite option at $7,000. ☠️ On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield has been close to the model of consistency, but draws a difficult matchup here as no QB has thrown for more than 2 TDs or topped 275 yards against the Bills. 🦬 James Cook has 17 or more touches in every game but one (the 24-14 loss to ATL) and has shown 30 point ceiling twice this season. ☠️ Both TreVeyon Henderson and Jahmyr Gibbs surpassed 30 fantasy points against Tampa Bay in the past 3 weeks. ☠️ Bucky Irving is likely to miss, but the ground game doesn’t stand out for the Bucs as Rachaad White has only topped 14 rush attempts once all season. ☠️ With only one game above 17.4 fantasy points, White doesn’t stand out at $6,200. ☠️ Through the air, Emeka Egbuka stands out, as opposing WR1s have had success against BUF, and Egbuka has seen target counts of 13, 12, and 9 the past three weeks. 🦬 If he were active, Dalton Kincaid would be my favorite BUF pass catcher. CHARGERS (23.25) ⚡️AT JAGUARS (20.25) 😼 😼 The Jaguars present one of the easiest on paper matchups for opposing QBs. Purdy, Mahomes, Darnold, Smith and Davis Mills all accounted for 293+ total yards and multiple scores against JAX the past 6 weeks. 😼 The only QB the Jags held under that yardage during that stretch was Matt Stafford, who threw for 5 TDs. ⚡️Justin Herbert has topped 26 fantasy points in 3 of his past 4 games and stands out at $6,300. ⚡️The ground game doesn’t stand out for Vidal, as no RB has topped 63 yards rushing against the Jaguars, and while opposing backs have had more success in the passing game, Vidal has only topped 1 reception twice all season. 😼 The Chargers have been vulnerable to bigger games on the ground, however Travis Etienne has only topped 16 rushes once since week 4. He’s still intriguing at $5,600 because of his pass game involvement however. ⚡️ Through the air, rookie TE Oronde Gadsden left last week’s game against the Steelers with a knee injury, and if he were to miss, would help concentrate targets to McConkey, Allen, and Johnston. 😼 On the other side of the ball, the matchup is difficult for the Jaguars. Courtland Sutton is the only WR to top the century mark (100 yards) against this Chargers secondary all season. BEARS (22.75) 🐻 AT VIKINGS (25.75) 🟪 🏈 J.J. McCarthy at home against this Bears defense and Caleb Williams are both intriguing options this week, however Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers (featured in the next game write-up) are probably both better on paper plays in the same price range. 🟪 On the ground, Aaron Jones is interesting at $5,500 as he played on 71% of the snaps last week and out-touched Jordan Mason 12-5. 🟪 Through the air, all of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Jalen Nailor are interesting against this porous Chicago secondary. 🟪 Jefferson has seen double digit targets in 5 of the past 6 weeks and stands out the most of the group as fellow upper-echelon WRs have absolutely smashed the Bears. 🐻 On the Bears side of the ball, Rome Odunze and rookie Colston Loveland have appeal initially, especially if building around this game. PACKERS (25.25) 🧀AT GIANTS (18.25) 🔵 🧀 As horrendous as Jordan Love looked on MNF against the Eagles, he has topped 30 fantasy points twice this season, both times against bottom 5 pass defenses we typically target in the Steelers and Cowboys. 🔵 The Giants do present a matchup that has been friendly to opposing QBs, with Nix and Hurts both accounting for 4 TDs against the Giants the past 4 weeks, while Caleb Williams also exceeded 25+ fantasy points last week against them. 🧀 Like J.J. McCarthy, I think Jordan Love will fall into a group of players intriguing to me that the field may find as gross clicks. 🔵 On the other side of the ball, Jaxson Dart left the Bears game last week with a concussion and his status is one to monitor here. 🧀 On the ground, Josh Jacobs is expensive, but we’ve seen bell cow backs put up monster games against the Giants recently, with both Saquon Barkley (174 total yards, 2 TDs) and Christian McCaffrey (173 total yards and 2 TDs) both going off on the Giants in the past three weeks. 🧀 Packers pass catchers will also stand out here as they are all $5k or less and with Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft on IR, targets continue to consolidate, especially if Romeo Dobbs were to miss (he left Eagles game with a chest injury). 🔵 If it’s Russell Wilson at the helm, I don’t think I’ll have any interest in Giants pieces, however if Jameis Winston draws the start, Darius Slayton at $4,800 is intriguing. BENGALS (21.25) 🐯 AT STEELERS (27) 🟨 🐯 At $5,500, Joe Flacco really stands out here. The Steelers have surrendered games of 295 or more yards with multiple scores to Darnold, Maye, Wentz, Love, Daniel Jones, and Joe Flacco (342-3) when these teams met back in week 7. 🐯 Flacco has exceeded 24 fantasy points the past three weeks, and has attempted 45 or more passes in 3 of his 4 starts with the Bengals. 🟨 On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers is also intriguing, as the Bengals secondary has been one we’ve picked on all season and Rodgers accounted for 255 yards and 4 TDs in the first meeting between these teams. 🟨 On the ground, Jaylen Warren is interesting, and will likely garner ownership this week because of his consistency, but hasn’t produced a 4x fantasy score all season. 🐯 I think the other side of the ball may be more interesting however, if Samaje Perine were to miss the game after suffering a high ankle sprain last week. If Perine is out, Chase Brown becomes a solid bet at $5,700 with an expected workload of 16-20 touches. 🐯 Through the air, both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins stand out. 🐯Chase has seen 62 targets in the four games that Flacco has played and has topped 20 fantasy points in each, while Higgins has seen 8 or more targets in 3 of the 4 Flacco games and produced games of 21.6 and 36.1 points during that stretch. 🟨 For the Steelers, the passing game is essentially DK Metcalf and their 3 TEs, and it’s the TEs that stand out as the Bengals have been torched by the position several times this season, with Pat Freiermuth posting a 5-111-2 statline when these teams squared off in week 7. 🐯 Sam LaPorta (5-92-1) and Colton Loveland (6-118-2) also produced strong games against the Bengals, while Mason Taylor, Jonnu Smith, T.J. Hockenson, Tucker Kraft, and Harold Fannin all exceeded 12 fantasy points in the matchup. TEXANS (22.75) 🐂 AT TITANS (15.75) ⚔️ 🐂 My first thought when I saw this matchup was did DraftKings actually price up the Texans defense for once all season? Unfortunately, they did, but I’ll still have interest in the Texans D this week. 🐂 C.J. Stroud missed last week with a concussion, so while his status for week 11 is still up in the air, this is an intriguing spot for either Texans quarterback (Stroud or Davis Mills). 🐂 On the ground, Woody Marks is intriguing at $5,400 in this matchup, however, has only topped 14 rushes once all season. Not sure it’s a spot I’ll get to. 🐂 Through the air, the matchup stands out for Nico Collins who has seen 36 targets over the last three weeks and certainly has 25-30 points well within his range of outcomes. ⚔️ Not much to like on the Titans side of the ball against what is arguably one of the best defenses in the league. 49ERS (25.5) ⛏️ AT CARDINALS (23) 🔴 🔴 An interesting spot here for Jacoby Brissett, still priced under $5000. Brissett has topped 20 DraftKings points in all four of his starts and now faces a beat up 49ers defense. ⛏️ The 49ers have allowed the likes of Rattler, Dart, and Stroud to top 20 fantasy points while more polished QBs like Matt Stafford threw for 280-4 and 389-3 in his two games against them. ⛏️ On the ground, this is a middling matchup for Christian McCaffrey, but he doesn’t stand out at $9,000. 🏈 In the passing game, the two most intriguing options are at the TE position in George Kittle and Trey McBride. 🔴 In Brissett’s four starts, McBride has seen target counts of 13, 13, 11, and 9 and has 5 TDs. 🔴 At $11,200 combined he and Brissett form one of my favorite stacks on the week. 🔴 The pairing has produced 41+ fantasy points in all four of Brissett’s starts, including two games north of 50 combined points. Not bad for $11.2k. SEAHAWKS (22.75) 🟢 AT RAMS (25.75) 🐏 🏈 A battle of two of the top defenses and teams in the NFC, with both Matt Stafford and Sam Darnold playing well this season. 🐏 Stafford has gone for 26.8 or more points in 5 of his past 6 starts and is of interest here initially at $6,600. 🐏 On the ground, the matchup is middle of the road for the Rams, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have been close to a split backfield, making both hard to get to on a full 11-game slate. 🏈 This game features two of the top WRs in the league in Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in addition to future hall of famer, Davante Adams. 🐏 Adams has one of the most robust red zone roles in the league, but is priced up at $7,700 and only has one game with double-digit targets since Week 2. 🏈 JSN and Puka have such strong floors of basically 20 points, but at $8,900 and $8,700, my initial thought is to play them together on rosters built around this game taking off. 🏈 At TE, the carousel of options both the Rams and Seahawks definitely makes it difficult to have confidence in any particular player. RAVENS (23.75) 🟣 AT BROWNS (15.75) 🟤 🟣 A tough matchup here for Lamar Jackson, and not one that stands out at $6,900 as the Browns haven’t allowed a rushing TD to any QB or any 300 yard passing performances despite facing Lamar, Burrow, Love, Goff, Maye, and Justin Fields already. 🟣 On the ground, the Browns present another difficult matchup for Derrick Henry, and limited him to just 23 rushing yards when they matched up earlier this season. 🟤 The matchup is much easier for Quinshon Judkins, and he’s intriguing at $6,400 with 25 or more touches in 4 of the past 6 games. 🟤 Through the air, Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman are initially intriguing at $4,400 and $3,400 respectively in a game I expect Cleveland to be playing from behind in. 🟣 Mark Andrews is also in early consideration at $3,500 if wanting to pay down at TE, but overall, not a lot that stands out in this division matchup. CHIEFS (24.25) 🏹 AT BRONCOS (20.25) 🟠 🏈 The final game of slate should shape up to be a good real life game with 5-4 KC visiting the division leading Broncos, currently sitting at 8-2. 🏈 Both QBs are in below average matchups here, and surprisingly, Bo Nix stands out more as the Chiefs have allowed multiple QBs to score 2 or more TDs on the ground. 🏈 The matchup is difficult on the ground for both J.K. Dobbins and Pacheco/Hunt, and I’m not gravitating towards either backfield initially. 🏹 Through the air, the matchup is very difficult for both WR groups, however Rashee Rice is intriguing as the Broncos will be without top corner Pat Surtain. 🟠 Troy Franklin has really come into his own in recent weeks, with target counts of 10, 10, 9, 8 the past four weeks, while leading the team in red zone targets (by a pretty far margin). At $5,400, he’s probably my favorite play in this game. DST Upon first pass, the Defensive units that stood out to me were: HOU, GB, LAR, LAC, and SEA NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

NFL DFS: WEEK 2 A first look at the 13-game main slate through the lens of StatATL 49ERS ⛏️ (25.75) @ VIKINGS 🪓(19.75) ⛏️If Christian McCaffrey misses Week 2, Jordan Mason will probably be the highest owned RB on the slate. ⛏️If CMC is active, he won't see the usual workload and will be a tough click at $8,700. 🧐Upon first pass, this passing game caught my eye. 🪓Both offenses are reasonably concentrated and would be even more so if Jordan Addison missed. 🤔Along with Mason in the run game, Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel remain my initial favorites from this contest. RAIDERS ☠️(16) @ RAVENS 🐦‍⬛(25.5) 🐦‍⬛After getting gashed by J.K. Dobbins last week, the Raiders now get Derrick Henry on the road. At $6,700, Henry stands out as a bounce back play, 🐦‍⬛And I'm intrigued to see what the field will do with Mark Andrews. CHARGERS⚡️(22.75) @ PANTHERS 🐈‍⬛(16.25) 🐈‍⬛The Panthers gave up 180 rushing yards last week, and now face the Chargers that rushed on 51% of offensive plays last week. ⚡️At $5,400, J.K. Dobbins stands as value, and although all the pass catchers are affordable in this game, I don't have much interest outside of Ladd McConkey. SAINTS🔸(19.75) @ COWBOYS 🤠 (26.25) 🔸Alvin Kamara's price is up, and the Dallas backs split the workload last week. 🔸I am interested in Rashid Shaheed after the strong showing last week. 🤠If Ferguson misses, Luke Schoonmaker is interesting as a sub $3K option, and CeeDee Lamb is a strong candidate to lead the slate in raw points. BUCS 🏴‍☠️(22.5) @ LIONS 🦁(29.5) Another game where I'm not drawn to either backfield. 🏴‍☠️In the passing game, Chris Godwin should benefit from short area work, but is more a floor than ceiling option. 🦁The emergence of Jameson Williams adds another mouth to feed in the Lions offense, and makes the price tags on LaPorta and ARSB too hard to swallow. COLTS 🐴(22) @ PACKERS 🧀 (19) 🧀This should be a strong spot for Josh Jacobs. Jordan Love will miss the game and the Colts just surrendered 178 total yards to Joe Mixon last week. 🐴With Malik Willis under center, there is too much uncertainty regarding the Packers passing game, and while Michael Pittman would be my preferred Colt, he's probably too expensive for his likeliest outcomes. BROWNS 🟤(19) @ JAGUARS 😼(22.5) 🟤In Week 1 the Browns backfield belonged completely to Jerome Ford, and at $5,900 he's in consideration as a bet on volume. 😼Tank Bigsby was much more involved in the Jags game plan last week which makes Travis Etienne at $7,200 tough to swallow. 😼Thru the air, the Jags will face another tough test with the CLE secondary. 🟤And this isn't a game I'm drawn to with how poor Deshaun Watson looked in the season opener. SEAHAWKS 🟢(20.5) @ PATRIOTS 🔷(17) 🐄I have some initial interest in Kenneth Walker and Rhamondre Stevenson as both showed borderline bell cow roles in Week 1 and are priced $6,300 and $6,200 respectively. 🔷In the passing game, all the Patriots WRs are cheap, but rotated pretty evenly in Week 1. 🟢For Seattle, Lockett had the best game last week but only played 54% of the offensive snaps. JETS ✈️(22) @ TITANS ⚔️ (18.5) ⚔️The Jets have another road test on a short week. After watching Jordan Mason rush for 147 yards and a TD against the Jets on MNF, Tony Pollard stands out as intriguing. ✈️I'll have some interest in Garrett Wilson (who saw 11 targets in Week 1), especially if his $7,100 price tag keeps the field off of him. ✈️Not a spot I like for the Titans passing game as the Jets have one of the strongest secondaries in the league. GIANTS 🔵(21.25) @ COMMANDERS ⛑️(22.75) 🔵Washington's secondary looks as porous as I expected in Week 1 and Naber's didn't see his salary move. 🔵After seeing 12 targets in Week 1, Wan'Dale Robinson is also intriguing at just $4,300. ⛑️On the Washington side, I will probably go right back to Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin and correlate them with one of those Giants WRs. RAMS 🐏(24) @ CARDINALS🔺(25.5) 🏈Divisional matchup between two teams who played well but lost Week 1. 🐄Both Kyren Williams and James Conner saw bell cow roles in Week 1, and at $6,800 and $6,400, I have initial interest in both. 🐏Puka Nacua was placed on IR which makes Cooper Kupp almost a lock for me at $7,600 after seeing 21(!!!) targets on SNF. 🐏Demarcus Robinson is intriguing at just $4k, as is Colby Parkinson at $3,100. With such a concentrated offense, I may have a rule of at least one Ram on every roster this week. 🔺On the other side of the ball, Trey McBride is my favorite option at $6k. 💪This feels like a strong game to build around. BENGALS 🐈 (20.75) @ CHIEFS 🔴 (26.75) 🔴Isiah Pacheco doesn't jump off the page as a strong option, but after Rhamondre Stevenson put up 120 and a TD against the Bengals, Pacheco has some interest from me initially. 🔴If Hollywood Brown misses again, I'll go right back to Rashee Rice again at $6,700. Patrick Mahomes, of course, is in play every week. 🐈 If Tee Higgins is back for Cincy, this could be an interesting game to build around. STEELERS 🟡(19.75) @ BRONCOS 🐎(16.75) 🟡Last week, Najee Harris had 22 opportunities to only 4 for Warren. At $5,500 against a poor Denver team, that puts Harris strongly into consideration. 🟡Thru the air, George Pickens will likely see shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain, which makes Pat Freiermuth (a guy I never play) interesting at $4,100. 🐎On the other side of the ball, both Devaughn Vele and Greg Dulcich are interesting as (close to) min salary punt considerations at WR and TE. DEFENSE The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: BAL, PIT, LAC, IND, JAX, and GB. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

NFL DFS: WEEK 4 A first look at the 12-game main slate through the lens of StatATL SAINTS (20.25) 🟡AT FALCONS (21.75) 🪶 🟡Alvin Kamara has 20 or more touches in all three games and I would expect that to continue against the division rival Falcons. He’s of early interest to me. 🪶Through the air, Darnell Mooney appears to be a screaming value at $4,400 after seeing 15 targets the past two weeks. Week 3 was his season low in terms of snap count, and he still saw 93% of the offense snaps. 🟡This is a spot to be early on his role in this offense. For New Orleans, this feels like a good bounce back spot for Shaheed. BENGALS (26.25) 🐈AT PANTHERS (21.75)🐈‍⬛ 🐈‍⬛In Carolina’s first competitive game of the season, Chuba Hubbard saw 26 touches, and now facing the 0-3 Bengals, he’s an intriguing option at $5,700. 🐈‍⬛Through the air, this sets up to be a solid spot for Diontae Johnson, who saw 14 targets last week in Dalton’s first start, and Adam Thielen was just placed on IR. 🐈‍⬛At $5,600 Johnson offers a strong combination of both floor and ceiling. 🐈Ja’Marr Chase is always in play and the Panthers have allowed multiple WRs to go for 22+ DK points already this season. RAMS (19.25) 🐏AT BEARS (21.75)🐻 🐻The Bears backfield is completely unplayable with it currently being a 3-headed timeshare. 🐏On the other side of the ball, Kyren Williams saw 26 touches last week: and I would expect that workload to continue with Kupp and Nacua both sidelined. 🐻On paper this is an incredible spot for DJ Moore who has seen double digit targets in back to back games. 🐏The Rams have been absolutely gashed by opposing WRs with lines of 5-121-1 to Jameson Williams, 4-130-2 to Marvin Harrison and 11-175-3 to Jauan Jennings last week. VIKINGS (20.5) 🪓AT PACKERS (23)🧀 🧀A lot of my interest in this game will be determined on whether or not Jordan Love is under center for GB. If not, it’s probably a game I’ll mostly avoid with some potential interest in Aaron Jones. 🧀If Love does play this is an interesting spot for Jayden Reed, who continues to be the focal point of the Packers pass game with both schemed rushing attempts in every game as well as leading the team in receptions. 🪓Justin Jefferson and either Addison or Nailor are interesting on the Vikings side of the ball. JAGUARS (19.25) 😼AT TEXANS (25.75)🔴 😼I will have no interest in Etienne at $7,000 as he’s yet to surpass 13 carries on the season. 🔴In theory, Joe Mixon could be interesting as the Texans are likely to be touchdown favorites at home against the 0-3 Jags, but Jacksonville has yet to allow more than 70 yards rushing to any back, despite playing several high powered offenses in Miami and Buffalo. 🔴Probably a spot I’ll avoid. My favorite play in this game is Nico Collins who has seen 28 targets this season and went for 7-104-1 against the Jags last season. If Evan Engram were to return, he has immense upside at just $4,600. STEELERS (21) 🟨AT COLTS (19)🐴 🟨This Steelers defense is legit and I plan on avoiding offensive players against them until further notice. 🟨Najee Harris is initially intriguing as he’s seen 19 or more opportunities in each game and the Colts got gashed on the ground by both Joe Mixon (159 yards) and Josh Jacobs (151 yards). 🟨Pickens is another guy I’ll have interest in as he continues to operate as the unquestioned WR1 and now gets an Indy team that allowed 117 to Nico Collins and 112 to Rome Odunze. At $5,700 a 5x score seems well within his range of outcomes. BRONCOS (15.75) 🐎AT JETS (22.75)✈️ ✈️Breece Hall has seen strong workloads all three games (opportunity counts of 21, 22 and 22), but at $7,800 it feels steep with Braelon Allen also seeing double digit opportunities the last two weeks. 🐎On the other side of the ball, I don’t have any interest in the Broncos offense despite a better showing last week. ✈️Through the air, the Broncos have been tough, and while chemistry is continuing to build between Rodgers and Garrett Wilson, this feels like a tough spot for Wilson to put up a 30+ score. EAGLES (23.75) 🦅AT BUCS (21.25)🏴‍☠️ 🦅Saquon Barkley has seen an elite role through the first three games with heavy involvement in both the run game and passing game and should be line for 20-25 touches again this week. I’ll definitely have interest in him this week. 🏴‍☠️The Bucs run game is probably unplayable until they start giving Bucky Irving the lion’s share of the touches. 🏴‍☠️This should be a good spot for both Evans and Godwin as the only game the Eagles didn’t allow a 20+ point DK score to an opposing WR was week 2 where Darnell Mooney went for 3-88-1 (17.8 DK points). 🦅If AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith were to miss, I’d have interest in Dallas Goedert coming off a 10-170 outing last week. COMMANDERS (23.25) ⛑️AT CARDINALS (26.75)🔺 ⛑️This could potentially be a great spot for Brian Robinson if Austin Ekeler were to miss after exiting the MNF game with a concussion. 🔺The Cardinals have allowed James Cook, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to all amass over 100 total yards against them. 🔺This is also an intriguing spot for James Conner, who continues to operate in borderline bell cow role for Arizona and is still priced in the mid $6k. 🔺With Trey McBride in the concussion protocol, this sets up as a smash spot for rookie Marvin Harrison Jr, who has seen 19 targets the past two weeks. ⛑️The Commanders secondary has been a welcome sight to opposing WRs allowing games of 6-118-2 to Ja’Marr Chase, 10-127-1 to Malik Nabers, 8-83-1 to Chris Godwin and 5-61-2 to Mike Evans. PATRIOTS (14.75) 🟦AT 49ERS (24.75)⛏️ ⛏️Despite a rock solid role, and what appears to be a better than average matchup, this is not a spot I’m interested in Jordan Mason. ⛏️Despite 20 opportunities each week, Mason only has 4 receptions and the Patriots have yet to allow a back to pass 55 yards rushing. 🟦On the other side of the ball Rhamondre Stevenson is initially interesting at $6,200. ⛏️Through the air, Brandon Aiyuk is once again interesting seeing double digit targets last week with Deebo Samuel sidelined. ⛏️If Kittle were to be active, I’d also have interest in him, a week after the Patriots surrendered 93 yards to Tyler Conklin. CHIEFS (24) 🟥AT CHARGERS (15.5)⚡️ 🟥Carson Steele saw 18 touches in his first game as KC’s starter, and at $5,500 is one of my favorite value RBs on the slate upon first pass. ⚡️Despite JK Dobbins increased involvement, this is not a matchup I’m drawn to as the Chiefs held Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson (and Zach Moss) all to 52 total yards or less. ⚡️The Chargers have held all 3 WR1s they’ve faced this season under 60 yards and have only allowed 1 TD to opposing WRs and TEs. 🟥On paper a tough matchup for both Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. ⚡️If Justin Herbert is active, the most intriguing piece is Ladd McConkey, who leads the team in targets and receptions and is only $4,800. BROWNS (18) 🟤AT RAIDERS (19)☠️ 🟤Jerome Ford has gone for between 64-70 scrimmage yards in all three games and should pace the Browns here. 🟤He’s intriguing to me as I suspect the field will be off him and the Raiders have allowed 96 total yards or more to an RB (Dobbins, Henry & Hubbard) in each game they’ve played this year. 🟤Amari Cooper is interesting here as he’s seen 29 targets this season and the Raiders have allowed the opposing WR1 to score in every game, including games of 8-122-1 to Diontae Johnson and 7-91-1 to Zay Flowers. ☠️On the other side of the ball, Brock Bowers is my favorite option. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: NYJ, CLE, PIT, HOU, MIN and DEN That does it for this week. Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard in week 4. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

NFL DFS: WEEK 6 A first look at this weeks 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. RAMS 🐑AT RAVENS 🟣 🟣The Ravens D have been a sight for sore eyes, surrendering 4 TD performances to C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen already this year. 🐑Matt Stafford stands out here, and is coming off back-to-back games with 375 yards and 3 TDs. 🟣While the Ravens have only allowed one 25-point fantasy performance to opposing WRs, 12 different players have receiving TDs against BAL already. 🐑The Rams are the most concentrated team in the league when it comes to targets, which leads Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to jump off the page here. 🐑The matchup also stands out for Kyren Williams, as the Ravens have already allowed 3 RBs to amass 20+ fantasy points against them this year and Kyren is coming off a 32-point performance himself. 🐑This is the first game of the slate, but a rule of at least one of Kyren/Puka/Davante feels appropriate. 🟣Derrick Henry has seen his price drop all the way down to $6,200, but the Rams have been tough to opposing backs and haven’t allowed a rushing TD or a 100-yard rusher all year. 🟣If Lamar misses again, I may avoid the Ravens side of the ball. If he plays, I think Zay Flowers is intriguing. 🐑At $8,700, and with less value on the slate than in past weeks, it feels unlikely that Nacua posts a score (probably 35+) that you’d have trouble winning without at his price. COWBOYS 🤠AT PANTHERS ⚫️ ⚫️My first thought was are we going back to Bryce Young at just $4,800? The past four QBs to face Dallas all surpassed 300 total yards with multiple scores. ⚫️On the ground, Rico Dowdle exploded last week in Chuba Hubbard’s absence and if Hubbard were to miss again, I’d have interest in Dowdle again this week in a potential “revenge game” against his former club. ⚫️Through the air, Tet McMillan continues to be the focal point, leading the team in targets and yardage every week this season. ⚫️His price is up to $6,000, and despite seeing 8 or more targets in every game, we’ve yet to see the upside of a score that would actively hurt you for not rostering him. 🤠The Panthers D has allowed double digit fantasy points to TEs in 4 of the 5 games this year, and with Lamb and Turpin likely to miss again this week, Jake Ferguson really stands out at $5,300. 🤠On the ground, Javonte Williams saw a price increase to $6,400, but that honestly still feels too low for his role this year. CARDINALS 🔴AT COLTS🐴 🔴The Cardinals defense has been solid, but allowed 240+ yards to every QB they’ve faced, and the list of opposing signal callers isn’t impressive. 🏈Bryce Young led the way with 328 yards and 3 TDs, while Mac Jones, Sam Darold, Cam Ward, and Spencer Rattler all fared respectably. 🐴That’s certainly a bull case for Daniel Jones, who is a more accomplished QB than any of those 5. 🔴On the ground, the Cardinals have only faced two RBs that saw 18+ touches, and both (CMC and Kenneth Walker) exceeded 100 yards against them. 🐴Jonathan Taylor has seen his price surpass McCaffery’s and he’s posted 30+ fantasy performances in 3 of the past 4 games. He will likely be my favorite pay-up option at the position. 🐴No pass catcher for Indy stands out, but Pittman, Downs, and Warren are all worth considering if wanting to take pieces from the Colt’s passing offense. 🔴On the other side of the ball, Kyler Murray hasn’t posted a 20-point fantasy game all season, and this likely isn’t the spot I’m going to bet on to be his first. 🔴Michael Carter saw a bell-cow role last week and at $5,300 is interesting after 23 touches last week. 🔴Trey McBride is more appealing than Marvin Harrison Jr. as he leads the team in red zone targets and has out-targeted MHJ every week thus far. SEAHAWKS 🟢AT JAGUARS 😼 🟢Darnold is coming off his best game of the year (341 yards and 4 TDs) and the Jaguars have allowed Purdy and Mahomes to each throw for 300+ and multiple scores in back-to-back weeks. 🟢On the ground, this should be a tough spot for Walker and Charbonnet as the Jaguars haven’t allowed an opposing RB to rush for 60-yards yet this season. 😼Travis Etienne also does not stand out, as no running back has rushed for 70 yards against the Seahawks, which includes a game where Christian McCaffrey saw 22 rush attempts. 😼While four different RBs exceeded 30 receiving yards against Seattle, Etienne only has 9 receptions on the year so a ceiling game feels unlikely from him in this environment. 🟢The spot does set up well for Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has surpassed 20 DK points in 4 of 5 games this season. Jacksonville has already given up big games to Ja’Marr Chase (14-165-1) and Nico Collins (8-104-1). CHARGERS ⚡️AT DOLPHINS 🐬 ⚡️With Omarion Hampton being placed on IR today, the first thing I did when I got to this game was to look to see the pricing on Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal. ⚡️Both are priced at $5k and are interesting to me as a pay down option at the position. 🏈We’ve seen what RBs have done against Miami this year - 234 yards for Dowdle, 111 yards for Hall, 118 yards for Cook, 142 for Stevenson, and 98 yards for Jonathan Taylor. ⚡️Neither are exciting from strictly a talent perspective, but if we get news that one will handle the lion’s share of the work, my interest would be increased. ⚡️The matchup is also intriguing for Justin Herbert as Daniel Jones, Drake Maye, Josh Allen, and Justin Fields all exceeded 23 DK points against Miami, with all finding moderate success (25+ yards) on the ground. ⚡️A stacking partner with Herbert is hard to pin down as Allen, Johnston, and McConkey have all led the WR corp in fantasy points on different weeks. 🐬On the other side of the ball, Jaylen Waddle is interesting as I’d expect 8-10 targets a game for him moving forward and opposing WR1s have had success against LA. BROWNS 🟤AT STEELERS 🟨 🏈My notes say “Don’t play RBs against CLE until further notice”. 🟤The ground game is much more appealing on the other side of the ball for Quinshon Judkins who has seen 20 or more opportunities in each of the past 3 weeks. 🟤What really stands out to me however, is the spot for Dillon Gabriel at $4,400. 🏈This is not for the faint of heart but the Steelers have allowed every QB they’ve faced (Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Drake Maye, and Carson Wentz) to surpass 17 DK points with both Fields and Wentz exceeding 26. 🟤David Njoku would probably be my favorite stacking partner with Gabriel as he led the team in targets with 9 last week in Gabriel’s first NFL start. PATRIOTS 🟦AT SAINTS 🟡 🟦An interesting spot here for Drake Maye as Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Jaxson Dart all rushed for 38 or more yards against the Saints to go along with multiple passing scores. 🟦Stefon Diggs has posted back-to-back 100+ yard receiving games and continues to build chemistry with Maye, while the Saints have allowed an opposing pass catcher to exceed 17.9 fantasy points in every game. 🟦The ground game for New England also presents an above average matchup, making this a situation to monitor after Antonio Gibson's season ending injury. 🟡On the other side of the ball, my only interest would be in Juwan Johnson at $3,300 as he’s seen 35 targets on the year and the Patriots have already allowed 3 TEs to surpass 15 DK points against them. 🏈Both DST catch my eye as well in this matchup. TITANS ⚔️AT RAIDERS ☠️ ☠️Man, talk about a game I am not enthused about at all. The Raiders defense has not allowed a QB to go for 300 total yards or account for more than 2 TDs this season, and they’ve held every RB to under 90 total yards. 🏈Jonathan Taylor had a big fantasy game last week, but it was on the back of 3 short rushing TDs, as he only accounted for 86 total yards on 21 opportunities. ☠️The Raiders offense isn’t any more appealing to me initially either. ☠️Ashton Jeanty has been highly inefficient outside of one quarter in week 4, but continues to see 15+ opportunities a game. At $6,900 he’s intriguing, but there probably are just better options. 49ERS ⛏️AT BUCS 🏴‍☠️ 🏴‍☠️Tampa Bay has looked like a Super Bowl contender out of the NFC, and that's once again been led by the play of Baker Mayfield. 🏴‍☠️Like last week in Seattle, SF presents a difficult on paper matchup for TB, but Mayfield may draw consideration from me this week. 🏴‍☠️If Bucky Irving were to return, he’d also be interesting as the Niners have allowed an opposing RB to exceed 120 total yards in 3 of the past 4 weeks (Kamara, Etienne, and Kyren Williams). 🏴‍☠️On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay continues to operate as a pass-funnel defense, with Kenneth Walker's 86 rushing yards last week marking the first RB to exceed 43 yards on the ground. ⛏️The Bucs have allowed 4 different pass catchers to exceed 19 fantasy points against them in the past 3 weeks, thus making Pearsall, Bourne, and Jennings all potentially appealing in the $5k price range. 🏴‍☠️Rookie Emeka Egbuka has been an absolute beast for TB thus far, but with his price up over $7k, he doesn’t stand out initially in this matchup. BENGALS 🐯AT PACKERS 🧀 🐯The final game of the slate offers another strong spot for one side of the ball, with the Bengals allowing 27 or more points in each of the last 4 weeks. 🧀Jordan Love stands out here as the Packers have had an extra week to rest and prepare for this matchup coming out of a week 5 bye. 🧀The spot also stands out for Josh Jacobs, as opposing RBs have scored at least one TD against CIN in every game this season and Jacobs continues to see 21+ touches every week. 🧀The WR room is very difficult to dissect for GB and with Christian Watson being designated to return from the reserve/PUP list, it may get even more convoluted. 🧀The one constant however has been TE Tucker Kraft, who leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. At $4,700, he’s my favorite stacking partner with Love. 🐯The Bengals acquired Joe Flacco as I was typing this up, and if he were to start, my interest in Packers DST would increase. Upon first pass, the DST that stood out to me were: GB, PIT, IND, JAX, and NO NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

NFL DFS: WEEK 4 A first look at this weeks 11-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. COMMANDERS (23) ⛑️AT FALCONS (22)🪶 🏈Despite watching the Falcons get trounced by the Panthers on Sunday, this isn’t a spot standing out to me for Washington, even if Jayden Daniels returns. 🪶The Falcons held the Bucs, Vikings, and Panthers all under 170 passing yards, and despite facing above average wideouts in Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Tet McMillan, only Jefferson (3-81-0) exceeded 70 yards. 🪶Jordan Love (292 yards and 2 TDs) and Geno Smith (289 yards and 3 TDs) both had strong games against the Commanders the past two weeks, and at only $5,100 this feels like an intriguing bounce back spot for Michael Penix. 🪶In 6 career starts Penix has exceeded 300 total yards with multiple scores twice (both at home), so the upside is there. ⛑️The Commanders also have surrendered multiple massive games to opposing pass catchers already this season to both Tre Tucker (8-145-3) and Tucker Kraft (6-124-1). 🪶As such, Drake London (27 targets), Kyle Pitts (19 targets), Darnell Mooney (15 targets in 2 games) and even Bijan Robinson (18 targets) are all viable stacking partners. SAINTS (15.75) 🟡AT BILLS (32.25)🦬 🟡The Saints didn’t quite keep the streak alive last week of having the opposing WR1 post their best game of the season, but it was close, as Jaxon Smith-Njigba went for 5-96-1 despite not playing in the 4th quarter of the Seahawks 44-13 blowout victory. 🦬The challenge however is determining who is the Bills WR1 as a different pass catcher has led the team in yardage every week. Initially, a strategy of playing both Josh Allen and James Cook is appealing as a way to (likely) capture all the TDs. 🟡Despite all that, my favorite player in this game might be Chris Olave. Olave saw a slight price drop, despite his third straight game with double digit targets. He leads the NFL in targets with 37 and is only $5,100. BROWNS (17.5) 🟤AT LIONS (26.5)🦁 🏈After a dismal performance week 1, the Lions offense has looked like its old, potent self the last two weeks, however the Browns defense should offer a formidable test this week. 🏈No individual matchup on the Detroit side stands out as Cleveland has held Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs all to under 45 rushing yards on the ground, while mostly stymieing opposing pass catchers as well. 🦁Despite this tough on paper matchup, I would expect the Lions to potentially carry the second highest team total on the slate (behind the Bills), so how the field plays this game is intriguing to me already. 🟤On the other side of the ball, Quinshon Judkins appears to have taken over the RB1 role for Cleveland with 20 opportunities last week. At $5,500, he’s interesting if that workload continues. 🟤Through the air, Cedric Tillman, Harold Fannin, and David Njoku all are initially appealing as well at their reduced pricing. TITANS (15.75) ⚔️AT TEXANS (22.75)🐂 🐂My first thought on this game was how much is the Texans DST. While Cam Ward has looked progressively better each game, Houston has held all three of their opponents thus far to 20 or less points while averaging 3 sacks a game. 🐂Stroud hasn’t looked great either this year, with more INT than TDs, while he’s yet to throw for more than 210 yards in a game. Probably not a game I’ll be targeting either QB. ⚔️On the ground, Tony Pollard is interesting as he’s handled 57 of the team's 61 backfield touches through 3 games, however it's hard to envision a game where he puts up a fantasy score you can’t win without. 🐂Houston’s backfield also has a good matchup here, but Nick Chubb’s touches have decreased every week while Woody Marks’ have increased. Unless they decide to hand the reins over to Marks, I’m not sure either back is playable. 🐂Through the air, Nico Collins is interesting. The Texans have focused on getting the ball in their superstars hands the past two games, with Collins seeing 20 targets. ⚔️For the Titans, Ayomanor continues to be an every down WR, and at $3,900 stands out as a solid cheap WR option this week. PANTHERS (19) ⚫️AT PATRIOTS (24.5)🟦 🟦On paper, a tough matchup for Drake Maye, however the second year QB does appear to have taken a step forward this season. Maye’s rushing upside, averaging 7 rushes a game for 29 yards, provides a nice floor at his $5,500 price tag. 🏈Thus far, the Panthers have shut down Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, and Michael Penix, limiting them to 220 (or less) passing yards in all three games, which does make it hard to get excited about Maye initially. ⚫️On the other side of the ball, Bryce Young is an intriguing option, as his price has fallen to $4,900 and both Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa threw for over 300 yards against NE on less than 35 attempts. ⚫️Through the air, the environment stands out for rookie WR Tet McMillan as I don’t expect Chuba Hubbard to find much success on the ground. 🟦The Patriots limited Ashton Jeanty, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Warren all to 47 rush yards or less, while the trio averaged less than 2.4 yards per carry combined. ⚫️McMillan is averaging 9 targets a game, and all four pass catchers who saw at least 6 targets (Jakobi Meyers, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Brock Bowers) against NE, all produced at least 17.8 fantasy points. CHARGERS (25.25) ⚡️AT GIANTS (18.75)🔵 🏈While the Giants defense has played well in general, this is an interesting spot for Justin Herbert and the 3-0 Chargers. ⚡️Herbert has thrown for 300 yards twice this year and has already shown 30 point upside with more use of his legs with designed runs this season. ⚡️Najee Harris suffered a season ending injury last week, leaving the backfield to rookie Omarion Hampton. At $5,900 he catches my eye as well. ⚡️Through the air, Keenan Allen has been the most consistent option, with at least 5 catches, 60 yards and a TD in every game thus far, while Quentin Johnston has also been a solid performer. 🔵On the Giants side of the ball, Malik Nabers is coming off the least productive game of his career, but would be my favorite option initially. 🔵On the ground, we should see increased opportunity for rookie RB Cam Skattebo, however I initially prefer Hampton, Pollard, or Judkins in the mid to high $5k range. At $5,500, Skattebo is in play due to his likely workload. EAGLES (23.5) 🦅AT BUCCANEERS (20)🏴‍☠️ 🏈A battle of two 3-0 teams, this is likely to be one of the better real life games this weekend. 🦅Jalen Hurts is the more intriguing option at QB coming off a 30-point performance last week. 🏈I expect a ceiling performance out of Saquon Barkley to occur at a low frequency against the tough Tampa run defense. 🦅As such, both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are interesting. 🏴‍☠️The Buccaneers may be even more condensed on offense than usual this week, with Mike Evans likely to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury. 🏴‍☠️With this news, Bucky Irving and Emeka Egbuka are more appealing with the expectation of increased opportunity. 🏴‍☠️There is also optimism that Chris Godwin may make his season debut, but I would expect him to likely be eased in if so. COLTS (23) 🐴AT RAMS (26.5)🐑 🐴The Rams have been one of the better defenses this season, but at $5,600, I’m initially intrigued by Daniel Jones. 🐴Tyler Warren leads the team in both targets and red zone targets and would be my favorite Colt pass catcher. 🐴On the ground, Jonathan Taylor has been a beast, with back to back 30-point performances, but now faces a Rams team that limited Saquon Barkley to just 55 total yards on 22 touches. 🐑On the other side of the ball, Puka Nacua’s usage has been insane, with 35 targets through 3 games as well as schemed rushes in every game. He’s interesting every week. JAGUARS (21.75) 😼AT 49ERS (25.25)⛏️ ⛏️A tough matchup on paper for Christian McCaffrey and with his price now up to $8,500, he doesn’t stand out. ⛏️The most interesting spot in this game for me is Ricky Pearsall, who is coming off an 11 target game where he produced his second 100-yard performance of the season. 😼The Jags also just surrendered back to back massive games to opposing WR1s; Ja’Marr Chase (14-165-1) and Nico Collins (8-104-1). ⛏️At $5,700 this should be a strong spot for Pearsall once again, especially if Brock Purdy, who is scheduled to resume practicing this week, were to return. 😼Nothing stands out to me on the Jaguars side of the ball early on. RAVENS (25.5) 🟣AT CHIEFS (23)🏹 🏈In a surprising matchup of two 1-2 teams, this game feels like it has extra importance as neither wants to start the season with 3 losses through 4 weeks. 🏹On paper, this should be a strong spot for the entire Chiefs offense as we’ve seen strong games against the Ravens at every position, however I’m not sure any KC player, including Patrick Mahomes, feels like a comfortable click this week. 🏈After watching Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery compile 263 total yards and 4 TDs against the Ravens on Monday night (as well seeing James Cook surpass 100 yards and a TD in week 1), this should be a great spot at home for the KC backfield. 🏹However, neither Kareem Hunt nor Isiah Pacheco have exceeded 50 total yards yet in a game this season. 🏹Even at their reduced pricing, it's hard to see either KC RB putting up a fantasy score you couldn’t win without.  🏹Through the air, Tyquan Thornton stands out at just $4,000 as his snap count, targets, and receiving yards have increased every week and he’s coming off back to back games with a TD. 🏹If Xavier Worthy were to miss again, Thornton feels like a strong WR value this week. 🟣On the Ravens side of the ball, the Chiefs present a below average matchup across the board, however, Derrick Henry’s price is down to $7,200 and he can break a slate any given week. BEARS (24) 🐻AT RAIDERS (24)☠️ 🏈Despite the potential for a lot of fantasy goodness, this feels like a game that will be generally overlooked by the field. 🐻On the Chicago side, Caleb Williams has put together two solid games with 8 TDs through 3 games while offering rushing upside. 🐻Through the air, Rome Odunze stands out here as he appears to have taken over the alpha WR role in Chicago with 7 or more targets and touchdowns in every game this season. ☠️For the Raiders, Geno Smith is also in a good spot as are his primary pass catching options in Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and TE Brock Bowers. 🏈If you throw out week 1, where J.J. McCarthy only completed 13 passes in his first career start, the Bears have allowed two pass catchers in each game to exceed 17 fantasy points. ☠️It’s early in the week, but I initially like the thought of one of Bowers, Tucker, or Meyers on most rosters I build this week. DST Upon first pass, the Defensive units that stood out to me were: BUF, HOU, LAC, INDY and JAX NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

NFL DFS: WEEK 5 A first look at the 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL PANTHERS (19.25) 🐈‍⬛AT BEARS (22.75) 🐻 🐻Going to be interested to see what the field does with D’Andre Swift. 🐈‍⬛The Raiders are the only team’s backfield the Panthers have held in check; allowing 110-1 to Kamara, 131-1 to Dobbins, and 170-3 combined to Chase Brown and Zach Moss. 🐻In his past three games, Swift is averaging 19 opportunities and is priced at $5,700. 🐈‍⬛Chuba Hubbard is also interesting on the other side of the ball as the Bears have allowed Pollard, JT, and Kyren to all average 5 yards per carry and give up rushing TDs to all 3. 🐻Thru the air, the Bears have been strong against the pass, allowing only Nico Collins to exceed 15 DK points. Probably a passing game I will avoid from both teams. RAVENS (26.75) 🐦‍⬛AT BENGALS (24.25)🐯 🐦‍⬛Derrick Henry is coming off back to back 25+ touch games, producing 33+ DK points in both and is now facing a Cincy team that has allowed 110 or more yards to Rhamondre Stevenson, Isiah Pacheco, and Chuba Hubbard already this season. 🐦‍⬛On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have yet to allow an RB to eclipse 45 yards rushing, despite facing the Bills, Cowboys, and Chiefs already this season. 🐯I’ll be avoiding Moss and Brown who are both at their highest DK prices of the season. 🐯Through the air, this is an intriguing spot for Burrow as the Ravens have allowed 275+ passing yards to Mahomes, Minshew, and Dak before stymying Josh Allen last week. BILLS (24.25) 🦬 AT TEXANS (23.25)🐂 🦬 Hard to get excited about James Cook at $7,000 as he’s only exceeded 15 touches once this season (way back in week 1). 🐂This is an intriguing spot for Joe Mixon if he returns from injury as the Bills have surrendered several big games to RBs already this season - allowing games of (total yards-TDs) 209-2 to Henry, 165-1 to De’Von Achane, 96-1 to Justice Hill, and 83-1 to James Conner. 🐂On paper, this is a tough matchup for Stroud as no QB has thrown for even 180 yards yet against Buffalo. 🐂The HOU wideouts are in a similar position, as the Bills have stifled Tyreek, Waddle, Harrison, Kirk, Brian Thomas, and Flowers, with only Kirk (8-79-0) surpassing 50 yards. COLTS (21.75) 🐴 AT JAGUARS (24.75) 😼 🐴Jonathan Taylor is likely to miss this game after suffering an ankle sprain, leaving Trey Sermon in line for 15-20 touches. 😼This should garner a lot of attention from the field, however, no back has exceeded 100 total yards against the Jags. 😼The Jacksonville backfield is more of a timeshare than people realize, leaving both Etienne and Bigsby unplayable at their salaries IMO. 🏈Both secondaries have struggled against the pass, with Nico Collins, Rome Odunze, and George Pickens all exceeding 100 yards receiving against Indy. 😼Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas stand out initially on the Jags side. The Jaguars have also been generous to opposing WRs, allowing huge games to Tyreek Hill (7-130-1) and Nico Collins (12-151-1). 🐴Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are also of interest, especially if Joe Flacco gets the start. DOLPHINS (17.25) 🐬 AT PATRIOTS (18.25) 🟦 🐬This Dolphins offense has been a mess since Tua went down and this will probably be a spot I continue to avoid again this week. 🟦Rhamondre Stevenson is interesting, seeing 18 or more opportunities in 75% of the games thus far and now facing a Dolphins team playing on a short week who has allowed multiple TDs to RBs in three straight games. 🟦This is probably a game I will pass on outside of some Stevenson exposure. BROWNS (20.5) 🟤AT COMMANDERS (24) ⛑️ 🟤The Browns have been tough against the run, but Brian Robinson would be interesting if Austin Ekeler were to miss again. 🟤Through the air, I’ll some interest in both Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin, but not sure it’s a spot I’ll target Daniels or Watson. RAIDERS (16.75) ☠️AT BRONCOS (19.75)🐎 🐎A bit of a gross game, but might have some interest in Javonte Williams. ☠️I did throw up in my mouth a little bit just typing that, however the Raiders have given up big games already to Dobbins, Henry, and Hubbard. 🐎Williams is coming off his highest touch game of the season (19 opportunities). 🐎Probably two passing games I’ll avoid outside of Courtland Sutton, who has 9 or more targets in all but one game this season. CARDINALS (21.25) 🐦AT 49ERS (28.75)⛏️ ⛏️Jordan Mason has seen his price rise almost $3,000 on DK but as a strictly yardage and TD back, he feels too expensive, even in a good matchup. 🐦This is an interesting spot to go back to Marvin Harrison Jr, as the two competent offenses the 49ers have faced (NYJ and MIN) both had strong WR showings: 6-89-2 for Lazard and 4-133-1 for Jefferson. ⛏️The Niners were able to shut down the Rams wideouts (missing both Kupp and Nacua) as well as the Patriots WRs. ⛏️For the 49ers, Deebo Samuel would be my favorite piece from their offense this week. PACKERS (25.75) 🧀AT RAMS (22.25)🐑 🐑Both backfields are of initial interest here. Kyren Williams is yet again in a good spot as GB has allowed Barkley, Aaron Jones, and JT to all surpass 130 total yards. 🧀On the other side of the ball, Josh Jacobs has seen 15 or more opportunities in every game this season and should benefit from the return of Jordan Love. 🐑Before shutting down the Bears offense last week, the Rams secondary had allowed monster WR games each of the first three weeks, allowing Marvin Harrison, Jauan Jennings, and Jameson Williams all to exceed 120 yards with a TD. 🧀Jordan Love is my favorite QB upon first pass and Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks stand out here. 🐑On the other side of the ball, Jordan Whittington would be my favorite pass catcher for the Rams. GIANTS (18.75) 🔵AT SEAHAWKS (24.75)🟢 🟢Kenneth Walker is in a plus matchup here in a game environment Seattle could just completely dominate at home if the Giants are without Malik Nabers who is currently in the concussion protocol. 🔵If Nabers is active, I would expect him to see double digit targets yet again and would be of interest to me as both a one off or part of a mini correlation. 🟢For Seattle, both JSN and Metcalf are interesting, but more so on rosters where I build around NY keeping it competitive. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: SF, SEA, GB, DEN and INDY That does it for this week. Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard in week 5. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

Not Chalk. Overlooked by the field. 9 Contrarian Plays that can break the slate👇 RUNNING BACKS 1. DAVID MONTGOMERY // 3% You’ve heard the homecoming narratives by now, but excessive steam isn’t a huge concern — there are too many cheaper options projecting better. 2. WOODY MARKS // 3% Seems to have earned his place atop the food chain in Houston’s backfield. While most will rightfully flock to Rachaad White and Rico Dowdle, we can bet on the rookie’s continued ascension on rosters that could use a bit of an ownership discount. 3. MICHAEL CARTER // 3% A bit of a leap of faith in terms of role versus the rest of this depleted depth chart, but a home favorite at 4k is worth a few stabs. Don’t hate the old-school pairing with Arizona’s DST here either. WIDE RECEIVERS 4. EMEKA EGBUKA // 8% I want to play him across from Jaxon Smith-Njigba this week just so I sound awesome announcing my lineup in Dr. Evil’s voice. 5. DARIUS SLAYTON // 3% Possible steam candidate — just makes too much sense. Vacated targets and big-play ability at a bargain price. 6. MALIK WASHINGTON // 3% Increased role due to injury, and I like the cut of this guy’s jib. 7. ADONAI MITCHELL // .4% Increased role due to injury, but I do not like the cut of this guy’s jib. And honestly, I’m not even sure what a jib is — which somehow makes me trust him even less. TIGHT ENDS 8. SAM LAPORTA // 7% Filling the tight end position with touchdown equity is usually a good approach. I’ll be eating plenty of Tyler Warren chalk, but Sam is a good option at $500 less. Grab a cheap DST other than the Texans or Saints, plug in LaPorta, and pay up three times at RB — you won’t have to worry about uniqueness. For DFS anyway. Social situations? That’s another story. 9. TOMMY TREMBLE // 2% I hate chasing one good game, but he’s stupid cheap and Miami has shown very little interest in guarding tight ends. Find all of Milly Winner @Sonic_nhpain's MME plays each week @oneweekseason on The Scroll

NFL DFS: WEEK 3 A first look at the 12-game main slate through the lens of StatATL Giants 🔵 (16.25) at Browns 🟤(22.25) 🟤Jerome Ford is an interesting option, however almost all his work came in the 2nd half. 🔵The Giants gave up 109 total yards and a TD to Aaron Jones Week 1, and just allowed Brian Robinson to rush for 133 last week. 🟤Deshawn Watson looked somewhat competent last week and that should only help Ford and the CLE run game. 🟤The Browns haven’t allowed a WR to top 100 and have only surrendered one passing TD through two games so not a spot I’m running to grab Malik Nabers. Bears 🐻(21) at Colts 🐴(22) 🐴This is an interesting spot for Jonathan Taylor, who saw his DK price fall for the 2nd straight week. 🐻Through the air, I do like DJ Moore, who is averaging 9 targets a game, as well as Josh Downs at $4,700 if he were to make his season debut this week. 🐴Probably not a game I will have a ton of exposure to, however I will likely have some Richardson and Downs stacks if he's active. Texans 🔴(23.25) at Vikings 🪓(22.25) 🪓Not on spot I’m initially drawn to either backfield, however Aaron Jones might be intriguing if Jefferson were to miss the game. 🪓If Jefferson were to play this is environment I’d definitely be interested in building around. 🔴Nico Collins is coming off back to back 100 yard games and the Vikings just allowed 110 yards to Deebo Samuel. He’s my favorite piece in this game. 🪓If Jordan Addison were to return from his ankle injury he’d be an intriguing option as well as he showed 30+ point upside multiple times last year as a rookie. Eagles 🦅(23.75) at Saints 🟡(26.25) 🟡After both Bijan Robinson and Josh Jacobs went for over 100 total yards, this feels like a good spot for Kamara who had seen 20+ opportunities in each of the Saints first two games. 🦅The passing game from both is also very interesting, especially if AJ Brown were to miss as this would all but guarantee double digit targets for DeVonta Smith. 🟡On the other side of the ball, I have initial interest in both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed as well. Chargers ⚡️(17) at Steelers 🟨(18.5) ⚡️J.K. Dobbins feels like a trap in this game. The Steelers defense has been very formidable against the run and Dobbins is still likely to split the workload with Gus Edwards. ⚡️At $6,400, his likelihood of putting up a had to have it scores feels very low and I think the field is going to chase the past two weeks’ results. 🟨Overall, the game feels like a slugfest and not one catching my eye thru either passing game. After a 2-0 start, I would expect Justin Fields to draw the start for PIT. Broncos 🐎(16.25) at Bucs 🏴‍☠️(23.25) 🏈Rachaad White is averaging under 2 yards a carry and Javonte Williams isn’t doing much better (2.1 yards per carry). Probably backfields I will avoid this week. 🐎Denver’s defense has been stout thus far, but has only faced 45 pass attempts thru two games as opponents know that if they don’t beat themselves, the Bo Nix led Broncos offense is unlikely to generate much. 🏴‍☠️This feels like a 21-10 game and probably not one I have much interest in outside of Chris Godwin as a floor play in cash. Packers 🧀(16.75) at Titans ⚔️(19.75) 🧀Both backfields stand out in this game. Josh Jacobs has averaged over 25 opportunities a game this season and with Malik Willis still under center should be heavily featured again this week. ⚔️The Titans surrendered 170 total yards and 3TDs to the combo of Breece Hall and Braelan Allen last week. 🧀On the other side of the ball, the matchup for Pollard is also juicy as the Packers allowed 131 yards (and 3 TDs) to Barkley in week 1, as well as 135 total yards to Jonathan Taylor last week. ⚔️If Spears is out (ankle injury), Pollard is likely to see 20 opportunities and at $6k appears to be a strong spot to target. 🧀In the passing game, as long as Willis is under center, I will be avoiding all GB pass catchers. ⚔️Calvin Ridley leads all WRs in air yards and is initially intriguing as a mini correlation with Jacobs. Panthers 🐈‍⬛(18) at Raiders ☠️(23) ☠️On paper, this should be a spot to consider Zamir White, as a home favorite against a struggling Panthers team, but with his split usage thus far, I’m not sure I can pull the trigger. 🐈‍⬛The Panthers have been atrocious on both sides of the ball and appear to be a team to target for opposing offenses. ☠️Initially, my favorite play in this game is Brock Bowers, as his 156 receiving yards is the all time record for a rookie TE thru 2 games. Dolphins 🐬(18.25) at Seahawks 🟢(23.25) 🟢If Kenneth Walker is inactive, this should be a good game environment for Zach Charbonnet facing a Dolphins team who allowed 28 fantasy points to James Cook. 🟢Charbonnet saw 19 opportunities last week and I would expect similar workload this week if Walker is out. 🐬Tua Tagovailoa is likely to miss this affair, leaving Skylar Thompson to lead the Dolphins passing attack. 🐬This is a major downgrade to both Tyreek and Waddle and will likely keep me off both as we wait and see what this passing game looks like without Tua. Lions 🦁(27.25) at Cardinals 🔺(24.75) 🔺It’s a small sample size, but the Cards have been stingy on the ground, holding Kyren Williams to just 25 yards rushing last week and James Cook to 71 rushing in a week 1 loss to Buffalo. 🔺The Lions also present a tough matchup, but if I had to take an RB from this game it would definitely be James Conner, who has seen at least 20 opportunities in both games and is involved in the passing game. 🔺From a passing standpoint, this is definitely one of the games that jumps off the page to me, although Marvin Harrison’s $7,400 price tag feels excruciating high for a rookie WR with 5 career catches. 🔺For the second week in a row, Kyler Murray looks to be my favorite QB play on the slate. Building around him, my favorite price considered pass catcher is Trey McBride. 🦁For the Lions I really like Jameson Williams, as he’s seen 20 total targets and has been schemed rush attempts in both games thus far. Ravens 🐦‍⬛(25) at Cowboys 🤠(24) 🐦‍⬛On paper, this sets up as a solid get right spot for Derrick Henry. Henry is averaging 17 opportunities a game and Dallas has surrendered games of 47 fantasy points to Alvin Kamara and 19 points to Jerome Ford. 🤠The Dallas backfield continues to see split work and now faces a tough Baltimore defense. A situation I will likely avoid. 🤠Thru the air, CeeDee Lamb appears to be a great option with Baltimore already surrendering games 9-110-1 to Davante Adams, 9-98 to Brock Bowers and 7-103 to Rashee Rice. 🐦‍⬛On the Baltimore side of the ball, both Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are intriguing as this Dallas team was just gashed for 44 points by New Orleans last week. 49ers ⛏️(25.75) at Rams 🐏(18.25) ⛏️Although he’s shown to be an afterthought in the passing game, Jordan Mason is averaging 25 touches the past two weeks, and now the 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel (and CMC). ⛏️Even at $6,200 he’s still a very strong option this week on paper as the Rams have allowed games of 122-1 to James Conner and a combined 132-2 on the ground to Montgomery and Gibbs in week 1. 🐏For the Rams, I would expect a heavy dosage of Kyren Williams, with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp out. ⛏️On the other side of the ball, I expect one (or both) of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle to see 10+ targets in an above average matchup. ⛏️The Rams have already allowed games of 4-130-2 to Marvin Harrison Jr and 5-121-1 to Jameson Williams, so this feels like a great spot for Aiyuk in particular. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: CLE, SEA, INDY, TB and NO That does it for this week. Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard once again in week 3. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

NFL DFS: WEEK 9 A first look at this weeks 11-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. BEARS (27.5) 🐻 AT BENGALS (25) 🐯 🏈 The first game of the slate is intriguing for both QBs, as neither defense presents a difficult matchup. 🐯After posting scores of 24 and 29 fantasy points in his two games with the Bengals, Flacco is my preferred option at just $5,600. 🐻 Caleb Williams is slightly less appealing on the road, as he’s yet to throw for 300 yards this season and has only accounted for more than 2 TDs once. 🐯 On the ground, the Bengals have allowed the opposing RB1 to top 146 total yards in 3 straight weeks (Hall, Warren, and Jacobs), while Mason and Dobbins also topped 100 yards. 🐯 The matchup is also above average for Chase Brown, but last week’s 2 TD performance marked the first time he exceeded 13.1 fantasy points this season. 🐯 Brown hasn’t topped 15 touches since week 2 and at $5,900, it feels unlikely he puts up a score you can’t win without. 🐻 The Bears matchup doesn’t stand out through the air, as ARSB (21 DK points) is the only WR to top 20 points against the Bengals this season. 🐯On the other side of the ball, Ja’Marr Chase is the obvious stacking partner with 42 (!!!) targets in Flacco’s two games with the Bengals. 🐻 If Cole Kmet were to miss again, Colston Loveland would be intriguing at $3,300 as seven different TEs have produced double-digit fantasy points against Cincinnati this year. VIKINGS (19.25) 🟪 AT LIONS (28.25) 🦁 🦁 The matchup won’t stand out on paper for Jared Goff, but the two above average QBs the Vikings have faced this season (Hurts and Herbert), both exceeded 26 fantasy points. 🟪 J.J. McCarthy is expected back for the Vikings but didn't throw for 160 yards in either of his two career starts prior to his ankle injury. 🦁 The matchup for the Lions WRs is interesting as the Vikings started the season limiting Chase, Odunze, and London all to 50 yards or less, but then allowed strong games the next four games to: ➡️DK Metcalf (5-126-1) ➡️A.J. Brown (4-121-2) ➡️Ladd McConkey (6-88-1) ➡️DeVonta Smith (9-183-1) 🦁...even David Njoku and Harold Fannin combined for 10-80-2 line in week 5. If playing Goff, ARSB would be my favorite stacking partner. 🦁 The ground matchup is also intriguing for the Lions as Vidal, Judkins, Gainwell, and Robinson all surpassed 125 total yards against the Vikings. 🦁 The Lions have been tough against the run this season, with no RB topping 82 yards rushing. 🟪 On the other side, Justin Jefferson (and to a lesser extent Addison) stand out as the Lions have allowed multiple 30+ fantasy point games to WRs this season. 🟪 Justin Jefferson is coming off 4 straight games with double digit targets. PANTHERS (15.5) ⚫️ AT PACKERS (28.25) 🧀 🧀 Jordan Love has feasted against weak pass defenses (DAL & PIT) and struggled against everyone else. 🧀 No QB has accounted for more than 261 total yards this season against the Panthers (despite facing Allen, Prescott, Murray, and Maye). As such, I’ll likely pass on Love this week. ⚫️ Bryce Young is likely to return for Carolina, but has only topped 20 fantasy points once all season (26.3), in a game he threw the ball 55 times. ⚫️ On the ground, head coach Dave Canales said Monday that Rico Dowdle will likely see a boost in workload, but no RB has exceeded 100 total yards or put up 20 fantasy points against the Packers. 🧀 Despite James Cooks’ massive game last week, Josh Jacobs doesn’t stand out either on the other side of the ball. Jacobs is $7,700 and outside of Cook, no other RB has topped 20 points against CAR. 🧀 Through the air, we’ve seen 100+ yard games for Diggs, Waddle, and Pickens vs. the Panthers, but the Packers tend to spread the ball around, making it difficult to single out any Packers WR. 🧀 At the end of the day, I’m not sure any player from the game will make my player pool, although Christian Watson at $4,400 is intriguing after returning from injury last week. BRONCOS (19.5) 🟠AT TEXANS (20.5) 🐂 🏈 A game featuring two of the top defenses, both QBs feel like thin options this week. The Texans haven’t allowed a QB to account for 250 yards or more than 2 TDs yet, while Stroud may be without his top weapon in Nico Collins. 🐂 On the ground, the Texans haven’t allowed an opposing RB to top 71 yards, despite facing CMC, Kyren Williams, Irving, Pollard, Henry, and Walker. 🏈 Outside of Jonathan Taylor, the same stat holds true for the Broncos against the run, leading me to likely avoid both backfields in this game. 🟠 Through the air, Courtland Sutton has seen his price rise to $6,500 and feels unlikely to post a score you can’t win without. 🏈 Jayden Higgins (if Collins or Kirk miss) and Pat Bryant are intriguing cheap options, especially Higgins with Denver shutdown corner Pat Surtain out. That said, my favorite options in this game are likely both defenses. FALCONS (19.75) 🪶 AT PATRIOTS (25.25) 🟦 🟦 Drake Maye has been outstanding this season, but Tua’s 205 passing yards was the highest total of the season against this Falcon’s defense. At $6,500, Maye doesn’t stand out. 🪶For Atlanta, Michael Penix missed last week with a knee injury, but wouldn’t catch my eye either if he was active in this matchup. 🪶 On the ground, Bijan Robinson draws a really tough spot here. After the worst game of his career, the Patriots present a tough matchup as no RB has topped 50 rushing yards against them yet. 🟦 The ground matchup on the other side is more inviting, however Stevenson and Henderson continue to split touches, making it unlikely either puts up 25+ points. 🟦 Rhamondre Stevenson’s 21.1 points in week 2 marked the only time either NE RB topped 16.8 points. 🪶 The spot that stands out the most in this game is TE Kyle Pitts at $4,200. Pitts has 19 targets the past two weeks and opposing TEs have found success against the Patriots. 🟦 All of Harold Fannin, Dalton Kincaid, Tommy Tremble and Brock Bowers all exceeded 15 points against NE, while Mitchell Evans (CAR) and David Njoku both also topped 11 points. 49ERS (25.75) ⛏️ AT GIANTS (23.25) 🔵 ⛏️ After disappointing against a stout Texans front, the best on-paper matchup at RB probably belongs to Christian McCaffrey this week. 🔵 The Giants allowed Barkley, Hampton, and Javonte Williams all to exceed 120 total yards with at least 1 TD, while Bigsby (104 yards on 9 rushes), Dobbins (81 yards on 14 rushes) and Croskey-Merritt (82 yards on 10 rushes) also had solid performances on limited touches. ⛏️ CMC has seen at least 6 targets in every game this season and prior to last week, posted 7 straight games of 22+ fantasy points. 🔵 The ground game for NY may end up popular as Tyrone Tracy is only $5,100. Tracy has averaged 4.74 yards per touch in his career. Skattebo averaged 4.93 this year, so I don't expect a huge drop off in efficiency. 🔵 Singletary will mix in, but hasn't seen more than 7 touches, whereas Tracy should see 15+ opportunities. In terms of targets, Tracy has 4x the targets of Singletary this season, despite missing multiple games. 🔵 SF presents a middle of the road matchup but have allowed Marks, Bijan, Rachaad, Kyren, Etienne, and Kamara all to top 85 total yards. At $5,100, Tracy is intriguing to me. ⛏️ The matchup through the air is intriguing for either Mac Jones or Brock Purdy (both priced between $5k and $5,500) as Daniels, Prescott, Nix, and Hurts (twice) topped 20 points against the Giants. 🔵 On the Giants side of the ball, Jaxson Dart is once again interesting at $5,200, as he’s put up at least 18.6 points in all five of his career starts. Stroud just threw for 318 yards against this 49ers team last week without Nico Collins. 🏈 Pass catchers in this game also catch my eye, specifically Wan’Dale Robinson, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle. COLTS (26.75) 🐴 AT STEELERS (23.75) 🟨 🟨 The Steelers have given up season high passing yards to four straight QBs - ✅Jordan Love (360-3) ✅Joe Flacco (342-3) ✅Dillon Gabriel (221-0) ✅Carson Wentz (350-2) ...even Sam Darnold went 295-2 back in week 2. 🐴 As such, Daniel Jones stands at $6,200 coming off three straight games of 22+ fantasy points. 🐴 On the ground, the matchup is middling for Jonathan Taylor, but he’s proven time and time (and time and time and time) again this season that he can score 30+ points, even in a tough matchup. 🐴 JT's price is crazy high at $9,800, but the Steelers have allowed Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and Chase Brown all to rush for over 100 yards. 🐴 Through the air, the Steelers have given up monster games to multiple TEs - Hunter Henry and Tucker Kraft both exceeded 29 points, making Tyler Warren stand out at $5,500. 🐴 The matchup also stands out for Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce as Garrett Wilson, JSN, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase also topped 20 points (Chase went for 41). 🟨 On the other side of the ball, the ground matchup is tough for Warren and Gainwell with no opposing RB topping 76 yards rushing or posted 17 Dk points against the Colts. 🟨 Pass catchers have had success against Indy, as McBride, Troy Franklin, Puka, Keenan Allen, and Oronde Gadsden have all exceeded 20 fantasy points, while Atwell, Dike, and McConkey also topped 15. At $5,500, DK Metcalf is interesting as part of a game stack. CHARGERS (26.75) ⚡️ AT TITANS (16.75) ⚔️ ⚡️ The matchup is middling for Justin Herbert, however no QB has topped 23.2 fantasy points against the Titans. At $6,800, this spot doesn’t stand out for Herbert. ⚡️ The ground game is intriguing for Kimani Vidal as he’s seen 20+ touches in two of his three starts. In 7 of 8 games the opposing RB (Marks, Carter, Jeanty, Dobbins, Stevenson, and JT twice) exceeded 14.8 fantasy points against the Titans. ⚡️ Through the air, McConkey, Keenan, QJ, and Gadsden are all priced between $5,300 and $6,000, and are interesting as it feels likely one puts up 20+ points in this matchup. ⚡️ Through 8 weeks, Keenan Allen has topped 19 fantasy points three times, while QJ, McConkey, and Gadsden have each done it twice. ⚡️ Allen and Johnston also have multiple other games of 15+. Initially, I don’t mind a rule of one Charger per lineup. ⚔️ On the Titans side of the ball, Calvin Ridley, Chimere Dike, and Elic Ayomanor all stand out as cheap WR options to pair with LAC pieces. SAINTS (15.5) 🟡 AT RAMS (29) 🐏 🟡 The Rams present a difficult matchup for the Saints, no matter if it’s Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough under center for New Orleans. 🐏 The matchup is middling for Matt Stafford as no QB has exceeded 28 points against the Saints, however, Mac Jones, Allen, Dart, Murray, and Maye all topped 18.3. Stafford has gone for 27 or more in 3 of his past 4 games. 🐏 Puka Nacua should be back for the Rams, but doesn’t stand out at $8,500 as the Saints have generally done a solid job at limiting production from opposing WRs. 🟡 The Saints pass catchers are somewhat appealing, especially Rashid Shaheed as the Rams have allowed TDs of 30+ yards to Goedert, Hunter, and Adonai Mitchell (with an asterisk*). 🐏 All in all, this is another game where my initial favorite play is a (LAR) defense. JAGUARS (24.25) 😼 AT RAIDERS (21.25) 💀 😼 Trevor Lawrence has generally been underwhelming thus far this season, but gets an above average matchup this week against the Raiders. He’s interesting, but there are better on paper plays. 💀 The matchup is great on paper for Geno Smith, but he’s been borderline unplayable, with only one game above 12.8 fantasy points since week 2 and three straight games of single digit points. 🏈 The ground matchup is tough for both teams, as LV has yet to allow a RB to top 78 yards rushing or 86 total yards, while the Jags defense has held every opposing RB to under 60 yards rushing. 🏈 The pass catchers for both teams stand out, specifically Travis Hunter at $4,700 (reports say that he could be featured as the WR1 going forward) as well as TE Brock Bowers at just $5,000. CHIEFS (27.25) 🏹 AT BILLS (25.25) 🦬 🏈 The late afternoon hammer this week features two of the best teams in the NFL. The matchup on paper is difficult for both QBs, however they are two of the top signal callers in the league. 🏹 Patrick Mahomes has been on fire lately, with 5 straight games of 26.2 or more fantasy points. He would probably be my early lean between him and Josh Allen considering the weapons on offense. 🦬 The matchup on the ground is difficult for James Cook, as no RB has topped 100 rushing yards against the Chiefs this year. 🏹 Henry and Bijan both surpassed 180 total yards against the Bills, however, the Chiefs operate as a split backfield, making all three of Pacheco, Hunt, and Brashard Smith borderline unplayable. 🏹 Through the air, the matchup stands out for Rashee Rice, who has topped 23 points in both his starts this season. McMillan, London, Diggs, and Flowers all had 99+ yards and 7+ catches against the Bills. 🦬 On the Buffalo side of the ball, Dalton Kincaid would be my favorite option at $4,000. DST Upon first pass, the Defensive units that stood out to me were: LAR, DET, DEN and HOU NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

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NFL DFS: WEEK 7 A first look at this weeks 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. SAINTS (20.75) 🟡 AT BEARS (26.25) 🐻 NO hasn’t given up any massive games to opposing QBs, but all 6 QBs they’ve faced exceeded 16 fantasy points, while Jones, Allen, and Maye all surpassed 23. Along with Caleb Williams, the Chicago run game is also intriguing. D’Andre Swift has seen 12 or more rush attempts and 3 or more targets in every game. The Saints have faced 5 opposing RBs who saw 12+ carries and 3+ targets (Conner, CMC, Walker, Cook, and Skattebo) and each of them had at least 14.4 fantasy points. That makes Swift appealing at $5,700. Opposing pass catchers have also put up solid games, with Harrison, Jennings, Smith-Njigba, Shakir, Boutte and Theo Johnson all topping 17.9 points. Rome Odunze stands out as the most likely receiver to continue this trend for Chicago. On the other side of the ball, both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are interesting as a correlated piece if building around this game. Former Saints head coach, now Chicago DC Dennis Allen should know Spencer Rattler well. If the Bears scheme shuts down the Saints offense, Caleb Williams may not have the ceiling here for a tournament worthy outcome on the other side. DOLPHINS (18.5) 🐬AT BROWNS (21.5) 🟤 After looking at all 10 games, I circled back to Dillon Gabriel. He’s the cheapest starting QB at $4,400 and is facing a Dolphins team that has allowed five QBs to top 18.5 fantasy points this season. With how tight pricing feels, he may have value this week. Gabriel hasn’t been exciting, but has yet to throw an interception and has 3 TDs thru 2+ games. Jerry Jeudy is coming off 13 targets last week and is also $4,400, while Harold Fannin and David Njoku are sub $4k and averaging 6+ targets a week (both with 14 or more targets in the two games Gabriel has started). This feels like a strong bounce back spot for Quinshon Judkins. Opposing RB1s have exceeded 97 total yards every game against Miami, with Vidal, Dowdle, and Stevenson all surpassing 137 total yards. For Miami, I’ll be avoiding De’Von Achane as my rule of “don’t play RB’s against Cleveland” still applies here after Jaylen Warren (8.3 points) marked the 5th RB1 of the season to be held to 15 points or less. Jaylen Waddle is initially the only Dolphin I’d consider, but has seen his price rise to $6,300. RAIDERS (16.75) 💀AT CHIEFS (28.75) 🏹 The Chiefs will likely carry a high team total, but it feels hard to imagine a robust game environment with the Chiefs strong defense taking on Geno Smith. Patrick Mahomes is coming off three straight great performances with 27+ fantasy points in each. He will likely be a consideration for me this week despite my concerns. The ground game for the Chiefs hasn’t been strong, and LV has yet to allow an RB to exceed 78 rushing yards or 86 total yards all year. With that considered, I doubt Pacheco makes my player pool this week. The most interesting play is likely to be Rashee Rice at $5,600. Rice operated as Mahomes’ top target last year and is making his season debut this week. The upside at his price is hard to ignore. For the Raiders, the most appealing option might be rookie Ashton Jeanty, who has seen 20+ opportunities the past 3 weeks, but at $7,000, it feels like this is an unlikely spot for him to post a had-to-have-it score. EAGLES (22.25) 🦅AT VIKINGS (21.25) 🟪 The Vikings have held every QB they’ve faced this season to 210 or less passing yards. This feels unlikely to be a spot where Jalen Hurts outscores both Dak Prescott and Jayden Daniels, who are both within $200 of his salary. I’m initially intrigued to see what the field does with Saquon Barkley this week, who has yet to top 20 fantasy points all season and is still priced up at $7,700. The Vikings have allowed big days to all three backs that saw 20+ touches (168 yards to Bijan Robinson, 128 yards to Quinshon Judkins and 134 yards and 2 TDs to Kenneth Gainwell). After starting 4-0, the Eagles are coming off back to back losses where Saquon failed to see 15 touches. Of note, Barkley had 22+ touches in all four of the Eagles wins this season. Through the air, neither A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith stood out. The Vikings held Chase, Odunze, and London all to 50 or fewer yards. The one exception was DK Metcalf (5-126), who scored an 80-yard TD on a broken play.  On the other side of the ball, the matchup stands out for Justin Jefferson, who has posted back-to-back games with 120+ yards. He now faces an Eagles secondary that has allowed Lamb, Nacua, Egbuka, and Sutton to hit 100 receiving yards against them. Wan’Dale Robinson also had a solid outing with a 6-84-1 line for 20+ DK points. PANTHERS (21.5) ⚫️ AT JETS (20.5) ✈️ A week after I highlighted how good a spot it was for Bryce Young, I’ll likely be completely hopping off that train this week as the Jets defense has held Allen, Mayfield, Prescott, Nix, and Rodgers all to under 250 passing yards this season. The ground matchup for Carolina does stand out, but Rico Dowdle has seen his price skyrocket up to $6,800 after back-to-back monster games and Chuba Hubbard will likely return to the mix in the backfield this week. Garrett Wilson hyperextended his knee last week and is likely going to miss the next few weeks. This leaves the Jets passing “weapons” to be basically non-existent outside of rookie TE Mason Taylor at $3,400. The Jets will likely run the ball as much as possible, which makes Breece Hall interesting, as 20+ touches feels like the likeliest scenario for him. PATRIOTS (24.5) 🟦 AT TITANS (17.5) ⚔️ Upon first pass, this doesn't feel like a game I’ll have a lot of exposure to though Drake Maye has topped 21 fantasy points in 4 of the past 5 weeks, and now faces the 1-5 Titans. The Titans D has been better than I think the field will realize. They’ve held Nix, Stafford, Stroud, Kyler, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones to less than 300 total yards. The ground matchup doesn’t stand out for Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson, who have been operating as a split backfield. Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Kyren Williams, Ashton Jeanty, Michael Carter, and Woody Marks all combined to average less than 4 yards a carry against the Titans. So far this season, a Patriot pass catcher has posted a tournament worthy score 5 times, but it’s hard to pin down who it will be on a given week. Kayshon Boutte has posted a 5x salary score twice, Diggs once, Henry once, and DeMario Douglas posted a 4.9x score last week. Diggs also had a 4.2x score (19.1 points) in week 4. At their salaries, all four could be in play this week as value pieces. Pass catchers for Tennessee are sneakily intriguing to me as the Patriots have allowed Meyers, Hill, Olave, Bowers, and Kincaid to exceed 97 receiving yards. Titans pass catchers are all under $5k. Calvin Ridley left the Raiders game with a hamstring injury and if he were to miss, Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, Van Jefferson, and TE Chig Okonkwo would be some of my favorite inexpensive value pieces. GIANTS (16.75) 🔵 AT BRONCOS (23.75) 🟠 Bo Nix hasn’t been great, but has seen his price drop to $5,600 (the cheapest he’s been all season), and the Giants surrendered 295 or more total yards to Daniels, Prescott, and Hurts already this season. The other side of the ball is also intriguing as Jaxson Dart has posted a fantasy score of 18.6 or higher in all 3 of his starts this season, and is only priced at $5,200. While the matchup will be one I think the field will completely shy away from, it should be noted that Jones, Herbert, and Hurts all posted games of 18+ fantasy points against the Broncos, while Ward, Browning, and Fields all threw for 125 or fewer yards with no TDs. With all that said, it feels unlikely either Nix or Dart produce a top raw or point-per-dollar score in this matchup. No Giants skill position player stands out, while Courtland Sutton would be my favorite Bronco with 4 games of 17.9 or higher fantasy points already this year. COLTS (23.5) 🐴 AT CHARGERS (25) ⚡️ The matchup is better than it appears for Justin Herbert as the Colts have allowed games of 375 and 320 passing yards recently. However, Herbert only has one game over 20 fantasy points all season. On the ground, we saw Kimani Vidal snatch the lead back role last week, but he doesn’t stand out in this matchup at $5,500 as no RB has topped 17 fantasy points against the Colts this season. Through the air for the Chargers, my interest will likely depend on Quentin Johnston’s status, who missed last week with a hamstring injury. If he were to miss, both Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen become more viable, while rookies Tre’ Harris and Oronde Gadsden would be intriguing cheap dart throws. The matchup is below average for Daniel Jones, but better for Jonathan Taylor, as the Chargers have allowed Achane and Croskey-Merritt to both go for 150 total yards and 2 TDs. At $8,800, JT is the most expensive player on the slate, but has exceeded 30 DK points in half his games this season. Opposing WR1s have also fared better than the field will realize against LA, with Hollywood Brown (10-99), Courtland Sutton (6-118-1), Deebo Samuel (8-96-1), and Jaylen Waddle (6-95) posting solid lines. He’s not an exciting click, but Michael Pittman is intriguing to me here, as is Tyler Warren, who leads the team in red-zone targets. PACKERS (25.25) 🧀AT CARDINALS (18.75) 🔴 Kyler Murray looks truly questionable to play, meaning we might get to see veteran Jacoby Brissett under center again for the Cardinals. At $4,500, he’s intriguing as a bet on volume as the Packers have seen at least 36 pass attempts against them in every game this season. Brissett had 44 pass attempts last week against Indy. This led to Trey McBride tying a season high in targets (11) and early on he looks to be my favorite TE option on the slate at $5,700. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals appear on paper to be a difficult matchup for the QB position, however they’ve only faced Rattler, Young, Mac Jones, Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Cam Ward thus far. At $6,200 Jordan Love is interesting as the Packers should be able to score against the Cards. The matchup stands out on the ground for Josh Jacobs, as opposing RBs have scored every week against AZ. Jacobs is coming off back-to-back 30+ fantasy point performances with 20 or more touches in every game. Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft stand out here as well as sub $5k options and would be my favorite stacking options with Jordan Love. COMMANDERS (28.25) ⛑️AT COWBOYS (26.75) 🤠 The final game of the slate certainly offers the late afternoon hammer. After going through all ten games, I went back and compared players, especially QBs, to Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott. The game carries a 55-point total, a full TD more than any other game on the main slate. My first impression is that this game will likely be “accounted for” on most, if not all, rosters I build this week. Let’s start at the QB where Jayden Daniels is probably the best on paper play at the QB position this week. Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love all posted their best fantasy score of the season against Dallas (29+ points), while Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts each went for 24+ fantasy points. On the other side, the matchup is also strong for Dak Prescott, who may be getting his top weapon in CeeDee Lamb back. On the ground, the Commanders have surrendered massive games to Bijan Robinson (181 total yards) and D’Andre Swift (175 total yards), leading Javonte Williams to stand out in this matchup. Dallas has been a friendly matchup to opposing RBs allowing Josh Jacobs (157 yards), Breece Hall (155 total yards) and Rico Dowdle (239 total yards) to have monster days against them. As such, JCM stands out here on the Washington side of the ball. Through the air, the Commanders have given up massive days (27+ fantasy points) to Tucker Kraft, Drake London, and Tre Tucker already this season. The Dallas secondary hasn’t been much more impressive with Malik Nabers, Romeo Doubs, and Wan’Dale Robinson all topping 29 points, while Luther Burden and Garrett Wilson both had 19+ games. As such, Lamb (if he plays), Pickens, and Ferguson stand out on the Dallas side, where Ertz, Deebo, and McLaurin (if he plays) stand out as pair partners with Jayden Daniels. That said, I expect tournaments to be decided late in the day as this game finishes on Sunday. Upon first pass, the DST units that stood out to me were: KC, DEN, NE, CLE and CAR. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

NFL DFS: WEEK 7 A first look at the 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL SEAHAWKS (24)🟢 AT FALCONS (27) 🪶 🟢Seattle has been a generous matchup for opposing backfields, already surrendering games of 129 to Tyrone Tracy, 172 to Guerendo/Mason, 118 to Montgomery/Gibbs and 177 to Gibson/Stevenson. 🪶While Bijan is coming off his second-best game of his career with 25.5 fantasy points, Tyler Allgeier actually out-touched Robinson (19-18) and didn’t see his price move on DK. At $5,100, he’s initially intriguing. 🟢On the other side of the ball, the matchup is middling for Kenneth Walker. 🟢Geno Smith leads the league in both pass attempts and passing yardage, and since that's where Atlanta is more vulnerable, I’ll likely have more interest in Geno and his pass catchers than the Seahawks ground game. 🟢Both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf have 3 games of 9 or more targets, and they happened to come in the same weeks, so if building around this game I’d prefer them stacked together with Geno Smith. 🪶For the Falcons, Drake London has seen 44 targets over the past 4 weeks and has receiving TDs in four of the past 5 games. He would be my preferred run back / ATL pass catcher upon first pass. TITANS (16) ⚔️AT BILLS (25) 🦬 🦬Likely not much interest in the Bills' RBs as TEN has been a tough matchup on the ground with Breece Hall’s 62 yards on 14 rush attempts still the best to date. 🦬If Cook misses again, Ray Davis would be in consideration despite a tough matchup as he’s only $5,200 and likely to see 15-20 touches. ⚔️The matchup is much stronger for the Titans ground attack as Buffalo has allowed games (total yards - TDs) of 165-1 to De’Von Achane, 209-2 to Derrick Henry and 169-0 to Breece Hall. ⚔️Tony Pollard has seen 19 or more touches in every game but one and is initially a standout option at RB. ⚔️On paper, the Titans D has been very strong against the pass, but that doesn’t factor in opponent; through 5 games they faced Caleb Williams’ NFL debut, Skylar Thompson, Malik Willis, a 40 yr. old Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco. 🦬It’s not a spot I’m rushing to play Josh Allen, but if DK adds Amari Cooper to the Bills, I’ll have some interest in him. BENGALS (24.25) 🐯AT BROWNS (17.75)🟤 🟤This is an interesting spot as the Browns are potentially getting Nick Chubb back. 🟤He’s unlikely to see 20 touches in his first game back in a year, but the Bengals have given up at least one rushing TD in every game except one this season. 🐯Of note - Isiah Pacheco went for 111 yards in the one game where Cincy didn’t allow a rushing score. 🟤With Jerome Ford sustaining an injury last week, this is a situation to monitor. 🐯On the other side of the ball, Chase Brown may take on a large role after Zack Moss’ struggles, but the matchup isn’t great. 🐯Through the air, this is a better matchup than it appears for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as the Browns have given up big games to WRs in 3 of their past 4 games (6-116-1 to A.J. Brown, 4-112-0 to Terry McLaurin, and 8-78-2 to Malik Nabers). 🟤The Browns on the other hand are a dumpster fire on offense. Since I expect them to be trailing throughout in this one, David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy both become intriguing value options with Amari Cooper traded to Buffalo. TEXANS (22.25) 🐂AT PACKERS (25.25)🧀 🧀As noted last week, the Packers have been generous to opposing RBs this season, allowing games of (total yards) 132 to Saquon Barkley, 135 to Jonathan Taylor, 137 to Aaron Jones, and 105 to Kyren Williams. 🐂I’d expect Joe Mixon back in his bell cow role after returning from injury last week, and is of initial interest. 🧀On the other side of the ball, Josh Jacobs doesn’t initially stand out, but the Texans D isn’t as imposing as it seems on paper as Aaron Jones, Tank Bigsby, and James Cook all rushed for 80+ yards. 🐂Along with Joe Mixon, I’m also initially interested in the Texans pass catchers, specifically Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz. 🧀The Packers side of the ball is much harder to pinpoint as they have a myriad of options and tend to throw the ball 35 times or less in most (all but one) games. DOLPHINS (20.5) 🐬AT COLTS (23.5)🐴 🐴On paper, a great spot for Jonathan Taylor if he’s back from his ankle injury as the Dolphins have allowed 9 TDs to running backs in only 5 games. 🐬The other side of the ball is also an inviting spot as the Colts have allowed games of (total yards - TDs) 178-1 to Joe Mixon, 151-0 to Josh Jacobs, 129-2 to Tank Bigsby and 93-1 on the ground to Tony Pollard last week. 🐬If Achane were to miss, Raheem Mostert would be a strong bet in this matchup. 🐬This is also an intriguing spot for both Tyler Huntley and Tyreek Hill. The Colts have surrendered 4 games already of 112 or more yards to WRs and Tyreek is the cheapest we’ve seen him in years. He’s building some chemistry with Huntley and saw 9 targets last week. 🐴On the other side of the ball, Josh Downs has led the team in targets and receptions each of the past 4 weeks since returning from injury and is still only $5,700. LIONS (23.75)🦁 AT VIKINGS (26.25)🪓 🏈While this is one of the best in real life games of the week, it doesn’t stand out on the ground. 🪓Outside of Jordan Mason (who touched the ball 20+ times), no other RB has rushed for over 51 yards or even hit 30 yards receiving against MIN, which makes it hard to get excited about Gibbs or Montgomery in a split backfield at their prices. 🦁Detroit is one of the biggest pass funnels in the league and with Aaron Jones injuring his hip last week, it’s not a spot I’m initially drawn to. 🪓Through the air however it’s a different story, as Jefferson and Addison both stand out for Minny. 🦁For Detroit, both ARSB and Jameson Williams are interesting and a game I’ll probably have interest in stacking. EAGLES (23)🦅 AT GIANTS (20)🔵 🔵A better matchup than it appears on paper for the Giants and one I’ll have interest in Tyrone Tracy if Singletary is unable to play. 🦅The Eagles allowed Bijan, Kamara, and Jacobs to surpass 100 total yards, and both Bucky Irving (55 yards on 11 touches) and Pierre Strong (78 yards on 11 touches) also had success on limited opportunities. 🔵Tracy has seen 20+ touches in back to back games and may go overlooked. 🦅The matchup is middle of the road for Saquon Barkley, but certainly a spot where he can succeed as both Brian Robinson and Aaron Jones eclipsed 100 yards in this matchup. 🏈Through the air, both A.J. Brown and Malik Nabers (if active) are of interest, especially if Dallas Goedert were to miss. RAIDERS (18.5)☠️ AT RAMS (25)🐑 🐑An awesome matchup here for Kyren Williams as J.K. Dobbins (139-1), Derrick Henry (96-1), Chuba Hubbard (169-1), Javonte Williams (111-0) and Najee Harris (122-1) all had strong games against LV this season. ☠️The matchup is above average for the Raiders backfield as well, but not one I’m drawn to with how inept their offense has looked this season. ☠️Through the air, the most intriguing option is rookie TE, Brock Bowers, who has seen 22 targets the past two weeks in Davonte Adams' (now traded to NYJ) absence. PANTHERS (22) 🐈‍⬛AT COMMANDERS (29.5)⛑️ ⛑️This is a fantastic matchup for Brian Robinson as the Commanders prefer to attack on the ground, and the Panthers have already surrendered 14 TDs to RBs through just 6 games. 🐈‍⬛On the other side of the ball, Chuba Hubbard continues to see a borderline bell cow workload and is once again intriguing at $6,500. 🐈‍⬛Through the air, Diontae Johnson has seen double digit targets in 3 of the 4 games Andy Dalton has started, and I expect him to be heavily involved again this week. His price is getting expensive, but he’s a solid high floor option at $6,800. CHIEFS (22.75)🟥 AT 49ERS (24.25)⛏️ 🟥Despite facing Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, and J.K. Dobbins, the Chiefs have yet to allow a RB to exceed 46 yards rushing. No, that’s not a typo. ⛏️With both Jordan Mason and backup Isaac Guerendo priced up, it's not a spot I’m interested in targeting this week. 🟥The other side of the ball is intriguing however as Kareem Hunt has seen 17 and 28 opportunities the past two weeks and the 49ers have been a middle of the pack defense against the run this season. 🟥Travis Kelce is basically the only game in town with Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice both on IR and is coming off 7 and 9 catch games. ⛏️The 49ers pass catchers are healthy now, and as always when that’s the case, it’s tough to single out one of Kittle, Aiyuk, or Deebo Samuel as a strong on paper play. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: BUF, SF, LAR, CLE and the NYG. That does it for this week. Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard in week 7. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

NFL DFS: WEEK 10 A first look at this weeks 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. SAINTS (17.25) 🟡 AT PANTHERS (22.75) ⚫️ ⚫️ On paper, not a bad spot for Bryce Young but he’s only topped 200 passing yards once all season and has 10 or less rushing yards in all but one of his starts. ⚫️ On the ground, Dave Canales kept true to his word last week, and featured Rico Dowdle in the Panthers 16-13 win over the Packers. ⚫️ Dowdle saw 27 touches and converted the opportunity into 141 yards and 2 TDs. He now faces a Saints defense that has allowed 100+ total yards to five different RBs; he stands out at $6,300. 🏈 Opposing backfields have scored at least one TD in 7 of 9 games against NO this year, and the two outliers, saw the opposing QB account for 3 TDs instead. 🟡 On the other side of the ball, Alvin Kamara has seen 8 or fewer touches in back-to-back games and feels borderline unplayable at $5,400 as the Saints have totaled only 13 points the past two games. 🟡 The Saints traded Rashid Shaheed on Tuesday, meaning they may be forced to lean on Kamara a bit more in this one, but he still feels thin to me initially. ⚫️ Through the air, the best matchup is with Tet McMillan, but he continues to see double-digit ownership every week and has yet to top 19 fantasy points. ⚫️ He has seen 6 or fewer targets 3 of the past 4 weeks and at $5,700 doesn’t stand out in this matchup as no opposing WR has hit the 100-yard bonus against the Saints. ⚫️ Outside of Dowdle, nothing really stands out for me in this game. GIANTS (22.25) 🔵 AT BEARS (25.75) 🐻 🐻 The Bears backfield stands out here after a dominating performance last week against the Bengals. Kyle Monangai shined with 176 yards rushing on 25 attempts. 🔵 The Giants have allowed McCaffrey, Barkley, Hampton, and Javonte Williams all to exceed 120 total yards with at least 1 TD. 🏈 Additionally, Bigsby (104 yards on 9 rushes), Dobbins (81 yards on 14 rushes), and Croskey-Merritt (82 yards on 10 rushes) also had solid performances on limited touches. 🐻 If Swift is out or limited, Kyle Monangai would once again be of interest at $5,600. 🔵 The matchup for both QBs is above average, but Jaxson Dart has shown an incredible floor for a rookie QB, with at least 18.6 FP per game and averaging 23. 🔵 At $5,700, Dart stands out again this week as Chicago has allowed J.J. McCarthy, Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Flacco all to top 23 fantasy points against them this season. 🔵 If rostering Dart, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Theo Johnson all stand out as stacking partners. 🐻 On the Chicago side of the ball, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, and Colston Loveland are all interesting options if wanting to build around this game. 🐻 Caleb Williams is certainly intriguing coming off the best performance of his career. JAGUARS (18.5) 😼 AT TEXANS (19.5) 🐂 🐂 The only tournament viable scores that the Texans have allowed all season were to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8-123-1) and Puka Nacua (10-130-0), and at their respective prices ($7k+), neither were scores you couldn’t win without. 😼 No other skill position player has topped 18.1 points and as such, I’m probably off every Jaguar this week. 🐂 For Houston, David Mills is likely to lead after C.J. Stroud’s concussion on Sunday. He’s $4,500, but I don’t think he has the upside on this slate with Lamar Jackson ($6,800) and Josh Allen ($7,000) both priced down. 🐂 Through the air, this is an intriguing spot for Nico Collins at $6,700. We haven’t seen a ceiling game out of him in 2025, but he’s had back-to-back weeks of 10+ targets since the Texans bye. 😼 The Jaguars have already allowed monster games to Ja’Marr Chase (39.5), JSN (39.2), and Brock Bowers (45.7); even Davante Adams and Nico Collins (in week 3) had 26+ fantasy point outings. BILLS (29.75) 🦬 AT DOLPHINS (20.25) 🐬 🐬 The Dolphins have been a friendly sight for mobile QBs this season, with Jones, Maye, Fields, Jackson, and Allen (back in week 3) all exceeding 23 FP. 🦬 At $7,000, Josh Allen certainly stands out in this matchup while carrying his cheapest price of the season. 🦬 On the ground, the matchup also sets up well for James Cook. Opposing RB1s versus the Dolphins this season: ✅Quinshon Judkins - 84 yards and 3 TDs ✅Kimani Vidal - 138 yards and a TD ✅Rico Dowdle - 234 yards and a TD ✅Breece Hall - 111 yards ✅James Cook - 118 yards and a TD ✅Rhamondre Stevenson - 142 yards ✅Jonathan Taylor - 98 yards ✅Derrick Henry - 121 yards 🐬 On the other side of the ball, the matchup is also intriguing for De’Von Achane, who like CMC, has his floor boosted by his consistent pass-catching work. 🐬 We’ve seen massive games from RBs against the Bills this season (238-1 for Bijan and 182-2 for Henry), however Achane produced his 2nd worst performance of the season (16.1 DK points) when these teams met earlier this season. 🦬 None of the BUF WRs particularly stand out in this matchup, but Dalton Kincaid would be my preferred stacking partner with Allen as he comes off his 2nd 100+ receiving game in the past 3 outings. 🐬 For the Dolphins, Waddle stands out as several opposing WR1s have had massive days against the Bills: 👀7-143-1 for Zay Flowers 👀10-158-1 for Drake London 👀10-146 for Stefon Diggs RAVENS (26) 🟣 AT VIKINGS (22) 🟪 🟣 Now this is a game that stands out at QB, specifically Lamar Jackson, who is still priced at $6,800 despite topping 25 DK points in all 4 of his full games this season. 🟪 The other side is intriguing for rookie J.J. McCarthy. Baltimore limited Stafford, Williams, Tua, Flacco, and Goff to less than 13 points, however, Josh Allen, Mahomes, and Stroud all produced strong games with 4 TDs. At $4,900, McCarthy could offer salary flexibility on this slate. 🟪 The green 27th ranked defense against the run will draw people to Jordan Mason, but only 3 RBs all season have topped 17 points against the Ravens. 🏈 Two of them (Gibbs and Montgomery) did it in the same game, while the other was James Cook who rushed for 44 yards and a TD and added 58 yards on 5 catches. 🟪 At $6,200 there certainly is upside for Mason, but it’s less of a slam dunk than I think the field may realize, even if Aaron Jones is out. 🟣 On the other side of the ball, Derrick Henry is coming off three straight games of 20 or more touches and is $6,800. The Vikings have allowed every opposing RB with 20+ touches (Bijan, Gainwell, Judkins, and Vidal) to top 125 yards. 🟣 Through the air, Mark Andrews stands out at just $3,400. He's topped 16.5 in 50% of Lamar’s full games. 🟪 The Vikings allowed David Njoku, Oronde Gadsden, and Sam Laporta all to top 18 points against them the past 4 weeks. 🟣 On the Vikings side of the ball, Justin Jefferson is intriguing in an above average matchup, as is Jordan Addison at $5,400. BROWNS (20.25) 🟤 AT JETS (17.75) ✈️ ✈️ The most intriguing fantasy player for the Jets most weeks is Breece Hall, however, I have a hard and fast rule against playing RBs against the Browns. 🟤 Gibbs is the only back to exceed 15 points against CLE (17.7) despite the Browns facing Henry, Jacobs, Mason, Warren, Brown, Achane, and Henderson. ✈️ Justin Fields is only $5,200 and has topped 20 points in 4 of 7 games this season, however those matchups were against far weaker defenses (Bengals, Cowboys, Dolphins and Steelers). 🟤 Quinshon Judkins is intriguing for the Browns, but if he were to miss, I’d have a ton of interest in fellow rookie RB Dylan Sampson at $4,700. 🟤 Outside of the defenses, my favorite player in this game might be Cedric Tillman at $3,500 if he’s activated from IR, as the Jets traded away Sauce Gardner on Tuesday. If Tillman isn’t active, I’ll likely avoid the game altogether. PATRIOTS (23) 🟦 AT BUCCANEERS (25.5) ☠️ 🟦 Drake Maye has been great this year, leading the Patriots to a 7-2 record. The Bucs have generally been strong against opposing QBs but have allowed Penix, Taylor, Hurts, Darnold, and Mac Jones to top 19 points against them. At $6,200, Maye is interesting to me. ☠️ Bucky Irving may return from a 6 week injury absence, but draws a really tough spot here. The Pats have been stout against the run, with no RB topping 50 rushing yards against them; a list that includes Bijan, Quinshon, Cook, and Achane. 🟦 The matchup on the ground for New England doesn’t stand out either as they have shown the desire to operate as a split backfield, no matter who the combination of backs is. 🟦 Through the air, Kayshon Boutte suffered a hamstring injury last week against the Falcons and has his status up in the air. 🟦 If we were to miss, Pop Douglas would be intriguing at $4k, after leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards last week. ☠️ On the other side of the ball, Emeka Egbuka is interesting as he’s seen 21 targets over the past two games without Evans or Godwin. Tez Johnson has seen 15 during the same stretch. CARDINALS (19.5) 🔴 AT SEAHAWKS (26) 🟢 🔴 The Cards are a better team than I think the field realizes, despite being 3-5, as all five losses were by 4 points or less. 🔴 After a convincing win on MNF against Dallas, I wonder if we get Jacoby Brissett again this week. Brissett has made 3 consecutive starts, and all 3 produced better stat lines than any of Kyler Murray’s starts this year. 🔴 If Brissett draws the start, I think he’s worth considering at $4,600, even against this strong Seahawks defense. Murray, Purdy, Mayfield, and Lawrence all exceeded 18 fantasy points against Seattle. 🏈 The matchup on the ground for both teams is middling, however, both teams have been operating with split backfields, and are of no interest to me here. 🟢 Through the air, the matchup doesn’t stand out for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as Arizona held him to his lowest output and fantasy score (13.0 points) when these teams met back in week 4. 🟢 The team did add Rashid Shaheed, but no pass catcher has topped 24 points against the Cards this season, making it initially difficult to get excited for JSN at $8,600. 🔴 On the other side of the ball, both Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison would be my preferred stacking options if considering Brissett. RAMS (26.5) 🐏 AT 49ERS (23) ⛏️ ⛏️ Despite the tough on paper matchup, the Rams defense isn’t as difficult as it would appear for either Brock Purdy or Mac Jones as the list of QBs the Rams faced this year wouldn’t scare most defenses - 🏈 Shough, Huntley, Rush, Lawrence, Stroud, Ward, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, and Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts scored 31 and Mac Jones put up 25 fantasy points. ⛏️ At home, both Purdy and Jones are appealing at $5,500 and $5k respectively, depending on who draws the start. 🐏 On the other side, Matt Stafford has quietly been hot, producing at least 26.8 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games (including 29.6 against the 49ers back in week 5). 🐏 Stafford’s lack of rushing (season high is 6 yards) does make it difficult to go to him over Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or even Drake Maye who are all within a few hundred dollars of him at $6,500. 🐏 On the ground, the Rams have been stout, and held CMC to his lowest yards per rush on the season - averaging only 2.6 yards per touch (57 yards on 22 carries) in the first meeting between these teams. ⛏️ While he is heavily involved in the pass game, at $9,000, it feels unlikely CMC produces a score you can’t win without in this matchup. 🐏 Kyren Williams may stand out to the field here, as he produced a season high 32 DK points in the first matchup between these teams. 🐏 However, Kyren has seen his workload develop into more of a timeshare with Blake Corum. He’s only topped 21 points once all season, and at $6,600 he feels overpriced for his likely role. 🐏 Through the air, Puka Nacua stands out as he’s exceeded 22 fantasy points in all 6 games he’s finished this season while Davante Adams has seen his price climb to only $1,000 less ($7,700). ⛏️ The 49ers pass catchers also stand out here as Mac Jones had a season high 49 pass attempts when these teams met in week 5, where Kendrick Bourne exploded for 27 DK points. LIONS (29.25) 🦁 AT COMMANDERS (20.25) ⛑️ 🦁 The matchup jumps off the page here for Jared Goff at just $5,900 as recent QB performances against Commanders include: 👇 330-4 for Sam Darnold 299-3 for Patrick Mahomes 313-2 for Michael Penix 292-2 for Jordan Love 289-3 for Geno Smith 264-3 for Dak Prescott ⛑️ Jayden Daniels will miss the game with a dislocated elbow, and while Marcus Mariota is a capable backup, he doesn’t stand out here but keeps the Washington pass catchers as viable options. 🦁 The Lions have been tough against the run this season, with no RB topping 82 yards rushing, which keeps me off any Commanders RB. 🦁 Jahmyr Gibbs is intriguing as Washington has surrendered some massive games to dual threat backs, specifically 181 total yards and a TD to Bijan Robinson and 175 total yards and a TD to D’Andre Swift. ⛑️ The only two other RBs to top 18 touches against Washington, Javonte Williams, and Josh Jacobs, both also topped 80 rushing yards with a TD. 🦁 Gibbs is expensive at $8,000, but draws my interest initially. ⛑️ Through the air, the Commanders have been gashed by opposing WRs and TEs alike. Kelce, Kraft, and Ferguson all topped 20 points, while JSN, Tucker, London, Lamb, Rice, and Horton also exceeded 20 points. ⛑️ The Commanders are likely to be without McLaurin, McCaffrey, and Brown, which will consolidate the targets around Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz. Both are intriguing bring back options if building around Goff. DST Upon first pass, the Defensive units that stood out to me were: SEA, DET, HOU, CHI, CLE and JAX NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

NFL DFS: WEEK 8 A first look at this weeks 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. DOLPHINS (19) 🐬 AT FALCONS (26) 🪶 🪶First game of the slate, but wow, Bijan Robinson jumps off the page this week. 🏈 Opposing RB1s vs. the Dolphins: ✅Quinshon Judkins - 84 yards and 3 TDs ✅Kimani Vidal - 138 yards and a TD ✅Rico Dowdle - 234 yards and a TD ✅Breece Hall - 111 yards ✅James Cook - 118 yards and a TD ✅Rhamondre Stevenson - 142 yards ✅Jonathan Taylor - 98 yards 🪶Bijan is priced at $8,800, but has topped 27+ DK points in half his games this season with multiple 30-point games. 🐬On the other side, I’ll be curious if De’Von Achane is popular after CMC went for 40+ DK points against Atlanta on MNF, however no other RB topped 15 DK points against the Falcons. 🪶Atlanta has only topped 24 points once all season, so the likelihood of this game becoming a shootout feels unlikely. Initially, it’s just Bijan Robinson for me in this game. BEARS (21.75) 🐻 AT RAVENS (28.25) 🟣 🟣 Now this is a game that stands out for the QBs, as we are likely to get Lamar Jackson back priced at $6,800. He has topped 26 DK points in all three of his full games this season. 🐻 Caleb Williams is also intriguing. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and C.J. Stroud all had 4 TDs against the Ravens while all topping 27 points. 🟣 The running games for both teams also stand out, especially for Derrick Henry, who like Lamar is the cheapest he’s been all season at $6,000. 🟣 Opposing RBs have averaged 5.5 yards per touch against the Bears and Henry is coming off a 25-touch game last time out (a 17-3 loss to LAR). 🐻 D’Andre Swift is also intriguing coming off back-to-back games with 23+ DK points and has seen 17 or more touches in every game but one this season. 🟣 Through the air, all of Flowers, Likely, and Andrews are intriguing as Chicago has surrendered multiple massive games to WRs and four straight games of double-digit points to the opposing TE1. BILLS (26.5) 🦬 AT PANTHERS (19) ⚫️ 🦬 Not a spot that stands out for Josh Allen and the Bills as the Carolina defense has been better than the field will realize. No QB has accounted for more than 260 total yards this season against the Panthers. ⚫️ The ground matchup also does not stand out as the Panthers have held Breece Hall, Javonte Williams, De’Von Achane and Rhamondre Stevenson all to under 40 yards rushing the past 4 weeks. ⚫️ Despite the good match up, the other side of the ball also isn’t intriguing, as Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard continue to operate in a time share. ⚫️ Through the air, the matchup is interesting for the Panthers as Bryce Young is likely to miss, leading to Andy Dalton drawing the start for Carolina at just $4,500. ⚫️ All four opposing WRs that saw 9 or more targets produced 15.9+ FP with Flowers, Diggs, and London all producing 27+ fantasy points. Tet McMillan is intriguing in this spot at $5,700. JETS (19) ✈️ AT BENGALS (25.5) 🐯 🐯 My first thought on this game was snoozefest, but the addition of Joe Flacco to the Bengals might actually change that especially with Jets’ shutdown corner Sauce Gardner in concussion protocol. 🐯 If Gardner were to miss, it would be wheels up for Ja’Marr Chase, coming off a 41-point performance in his first game with Flacco under center. 🐯 If Gardner does clear protocol, Tee Higgins becomes more appealing at $5,600 as the second receiving option has produced several strong games while the alpha WR has been mostly held in check - ✅C. Austin 4-70-1 w/ Gardner on Metcalf ✅E. Egbuka 6-85 w/ Gardner on Evans ✅R. Flournoy 6-114 w/ Gardner on Pickens ✅X. Legette 9-92-1 w/ Gardner on McMillan 🏈 Jake Ferguson and Darren Waller also had multi-touchdown games while Gardner was on Pickens and Tyreek Hill respectively. 🐯 On the ground, Chase Brown is intriguing at his lowest price of the season ($5,400). ✈️ Cook, Irving, Achane, and Javonte Williams all had 99 or more yards against the Jets while the pairing of Hubbard/Dowdle accounted for 151 yards last week. ✈️ The most appealing play from the Jets side of the ball is likely to be at QB. Lawrence, Nix, Goff, and Rodgers all topped 20 fantasy points against the Bengals. ✈️ Justin Fields (and Tyrod Taylor) are both cheap at $5,000 and $4,500 respectively and if Tyrod draws the start, rookie TE Mason Taylor is an intriguing pay down option at the position. 49ERS (20.25) ⛏️ AT TEXANS (21.25) 🐂 🐂 The Texans present a tough matchup across the board here, with no QB topping 20 points all season against them, and only Baker Mayfield surpassing 14. ⛏️ On the ground, Christian McCaffrey has been a machine, churning out 20+ point performances every week, however, he’s only topped 28 once, and has seen his price increase to $9,000. ⛏️ Despite facing Irving, Kyren Williams, Henry, Travis Etienne, and Pollard, no opposing RB has hit 20 fantasy points against Houston all season, making this spot feel like a spot I’ll likely fade CMC. 🐂 The two elite WRs (Nacua and JSN) that faced HOU both topped 120 yards, however no other pass catcher has topped 72 yards, or exceeded 13 fantasy points. ⛏️ Outside of the San Francisco DST, no 49er stands out here. 🐂 The Houston side of the ball is equally unappealing. C.J. Stroud has yet to throw for 250 yards in a game, and is likely to be without his top weapon in Nico Collins who suffered a concussion on Monday night. 🐂 The most interesting spot probably lies with Dalton Schultz, who saw a season high 10 targets last week after Collins exited the game. 🐂 Opposing TEs Pitts, Otton, Strange, Long, McBride, and Johnson all had double-digit fantasy points against the 49ers and Schultz is only priced at $3,300. 🐂 Jaylin Noel is also intriguing at $3,500 if needing a cheap WR after a season high 77 yards on 7 targets. BROWNS (16.75) 🟤 AT PATRIOTS (23.75) 🟦 🟦 The Browns haven’t allowed a QB to throw for 250 yards or even rush for 20 yards, despite facing Burrow, Jackson, Love, and Goff. As such, no interest in Drake Maye at $6,200. 🟤 Quinshon Judkins doesn’t stand out as the Patriots have been stout against the run all season with no RB topping 50 rushing yards. 🟦 For New England, I’ll be avoiding Rhamondre Stevenson as my rule of “don’t play RB’s against Cleveland” still applies here after Achane marked the 6th RB1 of the season to be held to 15 points. 🏈 Jahmyr Gibbs is the only back to exceed 15 points against Cleveland with 17.7. 🟦 Upon first pass this feels like a game I may avoid outside of the defenses, and my favorite play in this game is probably the NE defense. GIANTS (18.5) 🔵 AT EAGLES (25.5) 🦅 🏈 The final game in the early window features a rematch from week 6 between these NFC East opponents where the Giants surprisingly dominated 34-17. 🔵 Jaxson Dart is probably my preferred option in this game at QB as he’s topped 18.5 fantasy points in all four of his starts this season and continues to provide a decent floor with 35 rush attempts (and 3 rushing TDs) through 4 games. 🔵 The ground matchup is interesting here for Cam Skattebo who went for 31 points when these teams met two weeks ago. 🔵 Skattebo was the 4th RB to top 19 DK points against the Eagles (Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams, and Bucky Irving the others). 🦅 On the other side of the ball, Saquon Barkley is still priced up at $7,600, despite not topping 18.4 points all season. Hard to get there with pay up options like Bijan and JT in such better spots. 🦅 Through the air, both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are interesting as 9 different pass catchers have surpassed 14 pre-touchdown fantasy points against the Giants. 🔵 Wan’Dale Robinson is also intriguing at $5,200 coming off 12 targets last week and a 6-84-1 game two weeks ago against this same Eagles defense. BUCCANEERS (25.75) ☠️ AT SAINTS (21.25) 🟡 ☠️ Baker Mayfield is interesting here as Mac Jones, Josh Allen, Jaxson Dart, and Drake Maye all went for 250+ total yards with 3 TDs against New Orleans. ☠️ The ground matchup is fine for Rachaad White, but at $6,400, I don’t know that he has the ceiling to hurt you for not rostering him. ☠️ Through the air, it looks like both Evans and Godwin will miss, leaving Emeka Egbuka to operate as the main option. He stands out in this spot, even at $7,000. 🟡 On the other side, Chris Olave stands out as his 71 targets on the season are second in the NFL (behind only Ja’Marr Chase) and he’s coming off back to back games of 98 receiving yards. 🟡 Juwan Johnson is an intriguing option at $3,300 (and would be a direct price pivot off of Dalton Schultz) as multiple TEs have 2 TD games vs. the Bucs. 🟡 Additionally, Johnson’s 44 targets are 4th at the position thus far this season. COWBOYS (23.5) 🤠AT BRONCOS (27) 🟠 🏈 Certainly, an intriguing real-life matchup between the NFL’s top offense in Dallas, squaring off against a tough Broncos defense. 🤠 Despite the matchup, I wouldn’t immediately shy away from Dak Prescott. Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Jaxson Dart all threw for over 280 yards against Denver. 🟠 The other side is also intriguing for Bo Nix as Dallas has given up massive games to QBs, with Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, and Caleb Williams all exceeding 29 fantasy points. 🟠 RBs don’t stand out here, however Broncos WRs jump off the page as 8 different pass catchers have topped 15 fantasy points against Dallas already this season. 🤠 Jake Ferguson stands out from a matchup perspective, but at $6,000 with both Lamb and Pickens healthy, it feels unlikely he puts up 25+ fantasy points here. 🤠 At their prices, neither Pickens and Lamb stand out in this spot as DeVonta Smith (22.2 points) and Keenan Allen (19.5 points) are the only WRs to exceed 16 points against DEN this season. TITANS (16.5) ⚔️ AT COLTS (30.5) 🐴 🐴 Two TD home favorite Jonathan Taylor jumps off the page in this matchup. Taylor has 30+ DK points in four games this season, including Week 3 when these teams met the first time. 🐴 JT is priced all the way up at $9,500 but is the likeliest player (non-QB) on the slate to score multiple TDs. 🐴 The matchup through the air doesn’t really stand out for Daniel Jones or any of his pass catchers as Davante Adams (25.6 points) is the only pass catcher to top 18.1 point against the Titans this season. ⚔️ On the other side of the ball, Gunnar Helm is intriguing as a cheap TE option at $3,100 as is Elic Ayomanor at $3,900 as opposing WR2 and TEs have fared well against the Colts this season. DST Upon first pass, the Defensive units that stood out to me were: IND, NE, ATL, HOU, SF and CLE NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

Thanksgiving Slate Strategy StatATL's breakdown on how to win the three-game slate Like a Thanksgiving plate - Let's dig in 👇

NFL DFS: WEEK 10 A first look at the 10-game slate... PACKERS 🧀 at STEELERS ⚫️ 🧀Aaron Jones quietly saw 24 touches, more than doubling his previous high this season. The Steelers have been gashed on the ground this season (100+ yards to Henry, Etienne, Pierce, Ford & CMC), so fingers crossed Jones comes in at low ownership again this week. 🧀If Christian Watson misses, Jayden Reed becomes an intriguing option. ⚫️The Steelers continue to split the backfield opportunities, so it’s hard to get to either back, however Najee has 15 or more touches in 5 of the past 6 games & is only $4,900. ⚫️In the passing game, Diontae Johnson caught his first TD in over a year last week, and continued his high level of involvement with 9 targets. He’s interesting every week at $5,400. BROWNS 🟠 at RAVENS🐦‍⬛ 🏈Divisional matchup of two of the top defenses in the league. 🐦‍⬛Lamar went for 29 DK points in week 4 when these teams met in Cleveland (a 27-3 Baltimore victory). Ravens offense has been humming; averaging 35 points per game over the past 3 games. 🐦‍⬛Along with Herbert, Lamar is the only other pay-up QB on the slate. Only Jared Goff surpassed 250 yards against the Ravens D, so likely not a spot I’ll end up on Deshaun Watson. 🐦‍⬛For the Ravens, OBJ continues to see targets and remains sub $4k. He’s definitely interesting again this week as is Mark Andrews, who went 5-80-2 in these teams’ first meeting this season. 🐦‍⬛A week after 3 rushing TDs, Gus Edwards put up 2 more last week, albeit it on 5 total touches. He has 7 targets all season and I can’t get behind $6,100 for his usage. 🟠On the other side of the ball, the Browns ran the ball 38 times, with Ford seeing 20 rush attempts, to go along with 7 targets. Hunt and Strong were still involved, but it looks like Ford has regained the lead back role. He’s interesting as a lower-priced option. 🟠At WR, Amari Cooper put up his 3rd 100+ yard game of the season, while playing half the season with PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB. He’s interesting this week. TEXANS🐂 at BENGALS🐅 🐂Stroud is coming off the best overall QB performance this season (470 yards & 5 TDs) in what sets up for another potential shootout. 🐂The Texans have had an RB exceed 12 DK points only once this season (14.9 for Pierce), so I’ll have no interest there. 🐂For HOU, which pass catchers aren’t at least somewhat interesting after last week’s offensive explosion?! Tank Dell stands out at $5,500 as he’s surpassed 20 points in 3 of 7 games. 🐅Burrow has gotten more mobile as the season has gone on, and has exceeded 25 DK points in 3 of his past 4 games. Both QBs are strong options. 🐅On the ground, Mixon is averaging 19.5 opportunities this season and HOU is vulnerable against the run. He’s a guy I literally play once a season, but this might be the week. 🐅Ja’Marr Chase is always in play, but HOU is better against the pass compared to the run. 49ERS🔴 at JAGUARS🐈 🔴The Jags D has given up strong games to Allen (359-2), Minshew (329-1) Mahomes (305-2), Carr (301-1) & Stroud (280-2), so Purdy is also in early consideration. 🔴CMC is getting elite usage, but you already knew that. He’s actively involved in the pass game & the Jags have shown to be susceptible to RB receptions having given up 9 for 61 to Warren/Najee, 12 for 91 to Kamara & 11 for 84 to JT/Moss thru the air their past 3 games. 🔴For the Niners, it appears Deebo Samuel will return, which doesn’t make any of Aiyuk, Kittle or Deebo jump off the page at their prices. 🐈While a strong defense, the 49ers have faced 4 above average QBs this season (Stafford, Cousins, Prescott & Burrow), and have allowed 280+ yards to all but Dak. I think Lawrence is more interesting than the field likely does. 🐈Etienne is seeing more opportunities than CMC averaging over 23 a game with a heavy red zone role - 9 TDs thru 8 games. He’s $2,100 cheaper than CMC and will be considered for my final player pool. 🐈Both Ridley & Kirk would be appealing if Zay Jones missed again, as would TE Evan Engram. SAINTS⚜️ at VIKINGS 🟣 ⚜️Justin Herbert is the only QB to throw 3 TDs or exceed 285 passing yards against the MIB, which makes Carr less interesting than other pocket passers on this slate. ⚜️At RB, Kamara gets most of his value thru targets, but saw a season low 14 opportunities last week in. With Jamaal Williams being eased back in and Taysom Hill vulturing TDs seemingly every week, $8,300 feels too expensive. I’d likely prefer both Etienne & CMC. ⚜️Olave has averaged 9.5 targets a game & is interesting to pair with Addison. 🟣NO DST has been strong against the pass, but they haven’t faced a mobile QB this season. Dobbs has 3 games this season exceeding 24.75 points (4.5x his $5,500 salary) and is of early interest after his performance last week. 🟣Mattison is an interesting piece at $5,500 as his price didn’t move despite Akers likely being lost for the season. If he sees 17+ opportunities (like he has the past 2 weeks), he’s a strong value. 🟣Thru the air, Jordan Addison is averaging 8 targets since Justin Jefferson’s injury in week 5, and with KJ Osborn sustaining a concussion and likely to miss, Addison should remain heavily involved at $5,900. He’s simply too cheap for his likely role. TITANS ⚔️ at BUCCANEERS 🏴‍☠️ ⚔️Levis’ 26.9 DK points in week 8 have only been bested by Baker once since the start of the 2021 season. TB has given up 275 yards and at least 2TDs to over half the QBs they’ve faced this year, further supporting the case to consider Levis. ⚔️Against Tampa, D’Andre Swift has been the only RB to exceed 70 yards rushing all season, so it’s tough to get on Henry at $7,400 with Etienne $300 cheaper. ⚔️Both Evans and Hopkins are appealing as both teams are much stronger against the run and could easily make up a game stack if paired with Levis. Cade Otten & Chig Okonkwo are also viable as pay-down TEs. 🏴‍☠️Despite 40+ pass attempts in 2 of the past 3 weeks, Mayfield has yet to exceed 24 DK points this season. TEN is historically a pass funnel, but there just feels like better pay down spots, like on the other side of the ball with Will Levis. 🏴‍☠️On the ground, only Zach Moss and Jaylen Warren have eclipsed 100 total yards against TEN so Rashaad White would be a bet strictly on usage as he’s averaging over 18 touches a game. FALCONS⚪️ at CARDINALS 🐦 🏈Maybe this spot is interesting if Kyler plays? If not, this feels like a 17-14 slugfest, as both of these offenses are bad; The Cardinals have only exceeded 21 points twice and the Falcons have only done it 4 times. No thanks ⚪️Bijan and Allgeier continue to split the Atlanta backfield and are tough to trust. At this point in the week, neither stands out. ⚪️On the other side of the ball, if Drake London is Inactive, I’ll go right back to Pitts & Jonnu Smith. 🐦For Arizona, if James Conner is activated, he’s appealing, especially if the expectation is for him to resume his pre-injury average usage (19+ touches) 🐦If Murray is active I’d be drawn to Hollywood Brown. LIONS🦁 at CHARGERS ⚡️ 🏈This feels like a game the field is going to gravitate towards. 🦁Jared Goff has only eclipsed 20 DK points on the road twice since the start of 2021. On what’s likely to be perceived as another ugly slate, Goff will probably be over owned compared to his likelihood to put up a score you had to have. Likely a pass for me. 🦁For the Lions, both Gibbs and Montgomery are priced as if the other was out and going to be hard to get to at $7k for split usage. 🦁Amon-Ra St Brown has surpassed 100 receiving yards in 5 of his 7 games this season. He’s also priced above $8k but has 30+ upside. 🦁At TE, LaPorta has double digit targets in 2 of his past 3 games and the Chargers have struggled defending the position. He’s initially interesting at $5,700. ⚡️Herbert feels like a strong floor play, with at least 20 DK points in all but two of his starts this season. His two lower outputs came against very strong defenses in KC and NYJ. ⚡️Ekeler’s usage has been elite in the five games he’s played this year and with both Mike Williams and Josh Palmer on IR, he likely continues to see increased targets. ⚡️He’s expensive, but from a volume standpoint alone, Keenan Allen is interesting averaging over 10 targets a game this season and now the Chargers are without their #2 and #3 WRs. GIANTS 🔴 at COWBOYS 🤠 🔴Without a passing game or legitimate QB, the Giants are likely to lean heavily on Barkley, but at $7,700 he’d need a monster game to hurt you. It should be noted he’s only surpassed 30 DK points once since the start of the 2021 season. 🤠Dak feels like a strong play here. The Cowboys have generally walloped weaker competition, including a 40-0 road victory against these same NYG earlier this year. Dak has back to back 30+ point games, and at $6,700 feels like one of the best on-paper QB plays of the slate. 🤠For Dallas, this sets up for a good game on the ground, but Pollard is unlikely to see the touches required to pay off his $7,300 salary. Hopefully his ownership continues to reflect what DFS players hope his role will/should be instead of what it has been for a majority of the year without Zeke. 🤠At WR, CeeDee Lamb has 23 receptions on 30 targets in the two games since the Cowboys bye. He’s interesting if you think the Giants can keep it competitive, however if not, Jalen Tolbert is an interesting dart throw at $3,400. COMMANDERS⛑️at SEAHAWKS 🟢 ⛑️I think Washington has found its QB of the future in Sam Howell, and despite his propensity to take sacks, he’s shown a great ceiling. ⛑️All the Commanders pass catchers are initially interesting, especially if Curtis Samuel is inactive and the targets become more condensed. McClaurin is averaging 10 targets a game the past four, and like Diontae Johnson and Jordan Addison, is just too cheap at $5,800 for that volume. 🟢The Commanders are a weaker DST unit, but Geno only has one game all season above 17 DK points, despite games against the Giants, Panthers and Cardinals. Feels like there are better spots at QB this week. 🟢On the ground, Walker had less than 10 carries in back to back weeks, and while the matchup isn’t intimidating, Washington hasn’t given up a 100-yard rusher all season. Initially a pass for me. Seattle surrendered its first 100 yard rusher of the season last week to Keaton Mitchell, who had a 40 yard TD and 60 yard scamper in the 4th Qtr). Not a spot I'm targeting for either backfield. 🟢For Seattle, I’m most interested in Tyler Lockett as he’s 10% cheaper than Metcalf and historically has been 3x more likely to produce a 30 point score. - All NFL Edge games will be available on the site by Thursday! -@wgabelman

NFL DFS: WEEK 5 A first look at this weeks 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL. TEXANS (20.5)🐂 AT RAVENS (19.5) 🟣 🟣The Ravens have faced three competent offenses thus far (Bills, Lions, and Chiefs) and allowed 37 or more points to all three, while both Josh Allen (424 total yards) and Patrick Mahomes (275 total yards) accounted for 4 TDs. 🐂As such, the matchup for C.J. Stroud stands out as initially appealing at $5,200. 🟣Lamar Jackson is likely to miss the game with a hamstring injury, leaving Cooper Rush as the likely starter. Despite his $4,300 price tag as Houston has only allowed 51 total points this season, an average of less than 13 per game. 🟣On the ground, RBs have had moderate success against the Texans, but Henry doesn’t stand out, as he’s gone 3 straight games with 13 or fewer touches. 🐂On the other side of the ball, Woody Marks has seen his usage grow every week and out-snapped and out-produced Nick Chubb last week with 119 total yards and 2 TDs. At $5,200 he’s intriguing, but certainly not a slam dunk. 🐂Through the air, Nico Collins is of interest at $6,800. 🏈On the other side of the ball, no Raven catches my eye as outside of Puka Nacua (10-130-0), no other pass catcher has surpassed 12.9 fantasy points against Houston. 🐂The Texans DST is also interesting as a pay down option. DOLPHINS (22.75) 🐬AT PANTHERS (21.75)⚫️ ⚫️At $4,700 Bryce Young stands out as the Dolphins have given up 31 or more points in 3 of 4 games and now travel to CAR on a short week. 🏈Daniel Jones, Drake Maye, and Josh Allen all accounted for 3 TDs against MIA, while Justin Fields had 307 total yards and 2 TDs. ⚫️Rookie WR Tet McMillan has 8 or more targets in every game and would be my favorite stacking partner with Young. 🐬On the ground, the Dolphins have allowed strong games to the opposing RB1 every game this year - 111 yards to Breece Hall, 118 yards to James Cook, 142 yards to Rhamondre Stevenson, and 98 yards to Jonathan Taylor. ⚫️At $5,800 and with 3 or more receptions in every game, Chuba Hubbard also stands out.  🐬On the Miami side of the ball, Tyreek Hill suffered a season ending injury, leaving their already concentrated offense even more condensed. 🐬De’Von Achane should continue to see 20 total touches, with a significant amount of pass-game work, while I would expect Jaylen Waddle to see 8+ targets most weeks without Hill. Both Achane and Waddle are strong bets for volume if building around this game. RAIDERS (20.5) ☠️ AT COLTS (27.5) 🐴 🐴This feels like a spot the field is going to want to play Colts, especially Jonathan Taylor, however the Raiders have been well above average against the run this year, and JT’s price is up to $8,000. Taylor is going to check a lot of boxes for folks this week but initially doesn’t stand out to me. 🐴Daniel Jones is also likely to garner interest, however his fantasy production has been bolstered by his 3 rushing TDs in weeks 1 and 2. For reference, in his previous 6 seasons, Jones exceeded 2 rushing TDs on a season once. 🐴At $5,800, it feels unlikely Jones puts up a score you can’t win without as LV held four mobile QBs (Maye, Herbert, Mariota and Caleb Williams) all to 21.3 or less fantasy points. 🐴Through the air, Tyler Warren is averaging 13 fantasy points per game, but hasn’t scored a TD yet, despite leading the team in red zone targets. At $4,700, he’s probably my favorite (price considered) Colt. ☠️On the other side of the ball, Ashton Jeanty exploded last week for 155 yards and 3 TDs, however the Colts present the most difficult matchup he’s faced. ☠️With his price rising to $6,700, Jeanty doesn’t stand out initially. Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker initially are my favorite plays on the Raiders side of the ball. GIANTS (19.25)🟦AT SAINTS (21.75) 🟡 🏈While neither team has been strong on offense, the Giants injuries may make some of their pieces more interesting in this matchup as the week progresses. 🟦Jaxson Dart got his first NFL start last week, leading the Giants to a 21-18 victory over the Chargers, however with his top weapon Malik Nabers done for the year, it’s hard to get excited about Dart here. 🟦Tyrone Tracy is also dealing with an injury and his absence led Cam Skattebo to see 27 touches last week. If Tracy were to miss again, I’d likely have interest in Skattebo here as a bet on volume. 🟡Alvin Kamara has seen his price drop to $5,900, and while Kendre Miller saw an increased workload, Kamara still handled 19 touches, which he’s done in all but one game this year. 🟡Through the air, Chris Olave continues to see a ton of targets as his 43 on the season are second in the NFL only behind Puka Nacua. 🟡The Giants have given up a solid fantasy score to every opposing team’s top weapon, thus making Olave and Shaheed interesting. 🟦On the other side of the ball, I’m not sure any Giants pass catcher sees enough volume to get excited about. COWBOYS (24.75) 🤠AT JETS (22.25) ✈️ 🤠The Cowboys defense has been anything but intimidating this year, allowing an average of 33 points per game against. 🤠Opposing QBs (Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love) all scored 24+ fantasy points against DAL, with that group combining to average over 30 fantasy points against the Cowboys. ✈️At just $5,600, Justin Fields definitely catches my eye. ✈️The Jets side of the ball is particularly appealing as the MCL sprain suffered by Braelon Allen should bolster Breece Hall’s workload, basically guaranteeing he’ll see 20+ touches, including the goal line work. ✈️The passing game for the Jets is almost entirely Garrett Wilson as his 38 targets is 22 more than their #2 option, rookie TE Mason Taylor. 🤠On the other side of the ball, the matchup also stands out for Dallas, as their offense has gotten more condensed with the CeeDee Lamb injury. 🤠I prefer Fields to Dak, but both George Pickens and Jake Ferguson are interesting pass catching options. 🤠On the ground, Javonte Williams stands out as the Jets have allowed the opposing RB1 to top 99 total yards in three straight games (James Cook, Bucky Irving, and De’Von Achane). 🤠Williams has 15 or more touches in every game this season, including multiple games of 23 or more touches. BRONCOS (20) 🟠AT EAGLES (23.5) 🦅 🏈Despite his best performance of the year on Monday night, Bo Nix doesn’t stand out here on the road as the Eagles have kept Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, and Baker Mayfield all under 20 fantasy points this season. 🏈The Broncos have also been an above average defense, thus the matchup for Jalen Hurts also doesn’t stand out here either. 🦅On the ground, Saquon Barkley has seen 22 or more touches every week and this feels like a better spot than the field will give it credit for for Barkley to post a bounce back performance. 🦅At $7,500 he’s the cheapest he’s been all year and both Jonathan Taylor and Omarion Hampton accounted for over 125 yards and a TD against Denver. 🟠Through the air, the matchup really stands out for Courtland Sutton as 3 of 4 opposing WR1s have posted really strong games against the Eagles this season - CeeDee Lamb went 7-110-0, Puka Nacua went 11-112-0, and Emeka Egbuka went 4-101-1 (without Mike Evans). TITANS (17) ⚔️AT CARDINALS (24.5) 🔴 ⚔️Despite the fact that both Kenneth Walker and Christian McCaffrey surpassed 110 total yards against the Cardinals, it's hard to get excited about any Titan, including Tony Pollard. Probably a team I’ll avoid completely. 🔴On the other side of the ball, this spot should “check all the boxes” as my esteemed colleague Mike would say for Trey Benson. 🔴As a home favorite, with an implied team total of 25 points and likely to see the lion's share of the carries, Benson stands out at $5,700. 🔴Through the air, Trey McBride continues to be the focal point of the pass game, with 35 targets on the year. He leads the team in red zone targets as well, and at $5,800 presents a solid matchup once again this week. BUCCANEERS (20.5) 🏴‍☠️AT SEAHAWKS (24) 🟢 🟢Sam Darnold may be cheap and with a green matchup posted on DK, but he does not stand out to me here. 🏴‍☠️Despite the Bucs reputation of being a pass funnel defense, they’ve limited C.J. Stroud, Tyrod Taylor, and Jalen Hurts all to 207 or less passing yards this season. 🏈They have also absolutely stifled every opponent's run game as well, holding Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Woody Marks all to 43 rushing yards or less. Definitely not a spot I want to consider Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet. 🟢Through the air, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a workhorse for SEA this year, but Tampa has done a good job of limiting big games against them this year, despite opposing WRs like Drake London (15 targets) and Garrett Wilson (13 targets) getting peppered. They also held A.J. Brown (9 targets) to just 7 yards. 🏴‍☠️The Tampa Bay side of the ball also doesn’t present any plays that jump off the page upon initial review, although at $5,900 Chris Godwin could be appealing if Mike Evans were to miss again as he saw 10 targets last week in his season debut. LIONS (30) 🦁AT BENGALS (19.5) 🐯 🐯The Bengals have looked completely incompetent the past two games without Joe Burrow and now face one of the best offenses in the league. 🐯The Lions present a league average run defense, however Chase Brown hasn’t been able to get anything going year, as he’s yet to top 50 yards rushing this season, despite double-digit attempts every game. At $6,100 he feels borderline unplayable. 🐯The same can be said for QB Jake Browning, as he’s thrown more INTs than TDs in his two starts this year and didn’t account for 150 total yards in either start. 🐯Ja’Marr Chase was visibly upset last week, but would purely be a bet on talent as $7,800 is a steep price for a WR who’s only surpassed 10 fantasy points once this season (albeit a 39 point performance in week 2). 🦁The Detroit side of the ball is much more interesting, however, the challenge with the Lions is that they spread the ball around and their key skill position players are expensive. 🦁Despite that, early on I think a case can be made to consider Lions overstacks this week as we’ve seen them keep the pedal down in blowouts and I’m not sure this Bengals D will present them much of a challenge. 🦁If forced to choose, the ground game stands for Detroit, with both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs of early interest. 🐯Bhayshul Tuten, Travis Etienne, Jordan Mason, and RJ Harvey all exceeded 74 total yards with a TD against Cincy, while Dylan Sampson and J.K. Dobbins surpassed 93 total yards (without a TD). 🦁Gibbs is likely to be significantly higher owned of the two, but Montgomery at $5,200 is also quite appealing. COMMANDERS (22.5) ⛑️AT CHARGERS (25.5) ⚡️ ⚡️This feels like a solid bounce back spot for Justin Herbert, a week after the Chargers suffered their first loss of the season. 🏈The Commanders have allowed games of 289 or more passing yards (with multiple TDs) to Jordan Love, Geno Smith, and Michael Penix the past three weeks, and I would argue Herbert is as good if not better than all three. ⚡️The environment also stands out for Chargers RB Omarion Hampton, a week after Bijan Robinson went for 181 total yards on 21 touches. Hampton has seen 17 or more touches in 3 of the 4 games this season, and with Najee Harris on IR, that workload is likely to continue. ⚡️Through the air, Quentin Johnston continues to look like a first round talent after a disappointing rookie season, leading the team in targets, yards, and TDs. At $5,700 he’s my favorite stacking partner with Herbert. ⚡️Rookie TE Oronde Gadsden is also interesting at $2,700 if looking to punt the position. ⛑️On the other side of the ball, Jayden Daniels' status is up in the air as of Tuesday. Even if he plays, no Commander stands out in this matchup for me. DST Upon first pass, the Defensive units that stood out to me were: DET, IND, LAC, SEA, HOU and NO NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman and live on @oneweekseason each week!

Day 11 of the OWS $10,000 Giveaway! 39 EDGE POINTS for EVERYONE!! The 39 points can be used to purchase nearly any course in our Marketplace! How to Win: 1. Reply with who you think will win the Super Bowl. 2. Tag a friend who would enjoy OWS. 3. Retweet, bookmark, & like this post How to Claim your 39 Edge Points: After completing steps 1,2,3 above, drop us a DM with your OWS email and we will add the points over the next 24 hours.

TOP DraftKings Contests: Week 3 We went through the DK lobby and found the contests with the best payout structures. 🔖Bookmark this guide for this weekend: $50 BANKROLL • $50k Huddle - $5 Single Entry • $50k Pylon - $3 Single Entry • $20k Pylon - $3 Single Entry • $50k Nickel - $5 3-max • $30k Triple Option - $3 3-max • $15k Daily Dollar - $1 Single Entry • $175k First Down - $1 20-max • $20k Safety - $2 20-max • $20k Singleback - $1 3-max • $60k Engage Eight - $8 3-max $250 BANKROLL • All $50 Bankroll contests • $200k Fair Catch - $12 Single Entry • $75k Fair Catch - $12 Single Entry • $50k 1st and 10 - $10 10-max • $1M Play-Action - $3 20-max • $75k Blindside - $27 Single Entry • $40k Front Four - $4 20-max • $25k Fair Catch - $12 Single Entry $1,000+ BANKROLL • All $250 Bankroll contests • $150k Slant - $9 150-max • $50k Spy - $100 Single Entry • $40k Goal Line - $75 3-max • $40k 4th and 10 - $40 10-max • $600k Power Sweep - $150 3-max • $1.5M Wildcat - $333 150-max • $150k Three-Point Stance - $33 5-Max

NFL EDGE WEEK 4 🏈Start your Week 4 research with a breakdown from every game! 🗒️ DOLPHINS (25.5) at BILLS (28) 🔸Jaylen Waddle cleared the concussion protocol and was removed from the team’s injury report. 🔸River Cracraft and Erik Ezukanma did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, likely leaving the bulk of the WR3 role to Braxton Berrios. 🔸These two defenses have combined to allow just five total touchdowns through the air through three weeks of play, well below the league average. 🔸The Bills run the bulk of their defensive snaps from nickel, split between Cover-2 and Cover-3 alignments, while the Dolphins new defensive coordinator effectively set the league on its current trajectory of two-high base alignments (Vic Fangio). Both of those schemes force opponents to march the field through efficiency while aiming to take away splash plays. VIKINGS (25.5) at PANTHERS (21) 🔸Both of these defenses have struggled in all phases this season and have some injury situations they are dealing with. 🔸Minnesota’s passing offense is loaded with talent and will be a problem for Carolina’s beat-up secondary. 🔸The Panthers offense appears to be a matchup-sensitive group that will look to take advantage of this juicy setup. 🔸Frank Reich and Kevin O’Connell have these teams playing with pace, as they both rank in the top 10 in the league in tempo through three weeks. 🔸This game has the makings of a sneaky shootout due to struggling running games and beatable defenses. BRONCOS (24.75) at BEARS (21.75) 🔸We’ve talked about teams still trying to find their identity in other writeups this week, and that sentiment could not be more true than when talking about these two teams. 🔸Something has got to give in this spot – sharp money would appear to be on the Broncos, who somewhat quietly have a top 10 offensive line and have blocked to 2.0 yards before contact on the ground (fourth in the league). 🔸Nothing from this game truly pops on paper regardless of the current state of each defense. RAVENS (18.75) at BROWNS (21.75) 🔸The Cleveland defense has been nothing short of remarkable through three weeks, holding opponents to just 163.7 total yards of offense per week (first, by a lot), 6.2 fantasy points to quarterbacks per week (first, by a lot), 19.9 fantasy points to wide receivers per week (first, by a lot), 12.6 fantasy points to running backs per week (first), and 3.2 fantasy points to tight ends per week (first). 🔸The Ravens have been no slouches on defense themselves, holding opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry and 4.3 net yards per pass attempt behind a forced 6.5 defensive aDOT allowed. 🔸The biggest glaring shortcoming of the Baltimore defense is a robust 34.5 percent blitz rate (eighth) that has led to a subpar 18.6 percent pressure rate. 🔸Both of these offenses are very clearly trying to figure things out in the early goings, with the Ravens once again fighting through injuries and the Browns now without Nick Chubb for the season after he was such a cornerstone to their offense. 🔸Rashod Bateman (hamstring), Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle), and Justice Hill (foot) did not practice Wednesday for the Ravens. 🔸Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. 🔸These two teams are first and second in net yards allowed per pass attempt. STEELERS (22.5) at TEXANS (20) 🔸Pittsburgh enters this game with a 2-1 record, and their victories have primarily been driven by their defense. 🔸Pittsburgh’s offense is a work in progress as they deal with the absence of Diontae Johnson due to injury and a lack of a running game. 🔸Houston is coming off a huge divisional win in Jacksonville and looking to build on their growing success after showing progress each week so far. 🔸#2 overall pick CJ Stroud looks every bit the part of a franchise quarterback through three games and has yet to throw an interception despite attempting 121 passes already. 🔸Both of these teams play at a brisk pace, ranking 5th and 6th in the NFL in seconds per play on offense. RAMS (23) at COLTS (23) 🔸Anthony Richardson was a full participant in practice Wednesday and should make his return to the starting lineup after missing one game with a concussion. 🔸Tyler Higbee (Achilles) was listed as a ‘DNP’ on the Rams’ estimated practice report Wednesday – Los Angeles played on Monday night, meaning their first full practice will come Thursday. 🔸Michael Pittman should continue to see double-digit looks week in and week out, but his 5.9 aDOT and 6.8 yards per target leave little in the way of pure upside at his cost. 🔸The Colts have been most susceptible to perimeter wide receivers but have run zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league – the wide receiver that has seen the most targets against zone coverage this season is none other than Puka Nacua. BUCS (18) at SAINTS (21.5) 🔸Jameis Winston adds a lot of variance to this game. 🔸Rachaad White and Alvin Kamara are both underpriced for their anticipated touches. 🔸Mike Evans is set for his yearly duel with Marshon Lattimore. 🔸Chris Olave has plenty of upside if the Saints coaching staff lets Jameis cook. COMMANDERS (17.75) at EAGLES (25.75) 🔸The Eagles D/ST is one of the top on-paper defenses for Week 4’s main slate. 🔸Sam Howell has targeted his tight ends (Logan Thomas, John Bates, and Cole Turner) on 32 percent of his pass attempts this season. 🔸The Philadelphia defense has one soft spot in coverage – opposing tight ends over the middle of the field. 🔸The Eagles started the season playing almost exclusively from nickel defensive alignments but had to adjust following the loss of Avonte Maddox – still, Josh Jobe stepped into the starting lineup in Week 3 and played 57 percent of the defensive snaps. 🔸The Commanders could struggle to sustain drives with little ability shown to attack downfield in their present state, meaning the Eagles defense is likely to have numerous opportunities to rack up the sacks and disrupt drives in this spot. BENGALS (21.75) at TITANS (19.25) 🔸Ja’Marr Chase saw a career-high six targets when aligned in the slot and also saw the most slot snaps of his career in Week 3 against the Rams. 🔸It appears as if the Bengals are finally attempting to design something in their offense to optimize against 2-high defensive alignments. 🔸Joe Burrow currently sports the lowest IAY/PA (Intended Air Yards/Pass Attempt) of his career at 6.5, which ranks 32nd in the league. 🔸Tennessee forces the sixth-highest opponent pass rate over expectation (PROE) value on the season, behind just the 49ers, Jaguars, Lions, Buccaneers, and Eagles. 🔸Derrick Henry currently sports the lowest yards-before-contact and yards-after-contact numbers of his career, and he’s seeing an average of 6.9 men in the box on his carries. 🔸DeAndre Hopkins has exactly nine (NINE) yards after the catch through three games. RAIDERS (21.5) at CHARGERS (27) 🔸The Raiders have one of the most concentrated offenses you will ever see in the modern NFL. 🔸The Chargers have played three high-scoring games that went down to the wire, narrowly escaping in Minnesota for their first win of the season in Week 3. 🔸Justin Herbert is playing the best football of his career, but Los Angeles will now have to deal with the loss of star wide receiver Mike Williams. 🔸Las Vegas will likely be without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who suffered a concussion in the Raiders’ Week 3 loss to the Steelers. 🔸Both of these teams rank within the top 10 teams in the NFL regarding Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), and the Chargers play at one of the fastest tempos in the league. PATRIOTS (18.5) at COWBOYS (25) 🔸Maybe this will be the week the Patriots score more than 20 points. 🔸Shockingly, New England leads the league in offensive tempo through three weeks as they search for an answer to move the ball consistently. 🔸Dallas looked like a team on a mission the first two weeks of the season before pulling off a classic “Cowboys letdown,” losing by two scores to an Arizona team whom they were favored by 11 against. 🔸The Dallas defense is built for flash, big plays, and creating havoc. They struggle against teams who are able to take care of the ball and use their aggressiveness against them. 🔸The last time these teams met, Ceedee Lamb had a monster game that Bill Belichick will surely not forget. CARDINALS (15) at 49ERS (29) 🔸These teams rank 26th and 31st in the NFL in tempo while also ranking 24th and 31st in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE). 🔸San Francisco has scored 30+ points in eight of their nine regular season games since Brock Purdy stepped in for Jimmy Garoppolo last season. 🔸The 49ers defense has been dominant once again this season, making life exceedingly difficult on their opponents. 🔸Arizona has been surprisingly competitive to start the season as they play a controlled and conservative style on both sides of the ball that relies on their opponents making mistakes. 🔸The Cardinals have outscored their opponents by 28 points during the first three quarters of their games so far this year. The NFL Edge is written every week by @HilowFF, @mjohnson_86, @Papy324

NFL WEEK 7 DFS PREVIEW! LIONS at RAVENS 🔳At WR, Zay Flowers is averaging 8 targets a game and is interesting at $5,700 as the Lions have given up some solid scores to WR1; their past 3 opponents. 🔳The Ravens lead the league in rush attempts this season with over 200 through 6 games. Despite their run-first preference, the Ravens may find no success on the ground. 🔳The Lions have had strong offensive outputs against weaker defenses, but failed to top 21 against KC, TB and ATL. 🔳Opponents are only averaging 15 points per game against the Ravens, so while the game features explosive players in Lamar, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Amon-Ra St Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, this feels like a spot where the likeliest outcome is middling slugfest. 🔳On the ground, David Montgomery is likely to miss this game. If Gibbs were also to miss, Craig Reynolds is interesting as a sub-$5k RB, however if active, Jahmyr is also interesting on his own IF the Lions give him similar workload as week 3 against Atlanta where he saw 20 opportunities. 🔳Same case can be made for Mark Andrews averaging 7 targets per game also at $5,700 as he has 3 TDs in 5 games. 🔳Ravens DST also appealing at $2,500 as a pay down option. RAIDERS at BEARS 🔶On the ground, Josh Jacobs has had 3 straight games of 25 or more opportunities and would likely be in line for another heavy workload if Garoppolo misses. 🔶There is also uncertainty at the RB position for the Bears - Herbert is on IR, Travis Homer has been out with a hamstring issue, and Roschon Johnson missed last week with a concussion. 🔶If Johnson returns, both him and last week’s starter D’Onte Foreman are likely too thin, splitting the workload. BROWNS at COLTS 🟤In the two games that Minshew has started for the Colts, he’s had 44 and 55 pass attempts. This has him initially in consideration for me at $5,200, although the Browns have held opponents to 17 or fewer points in 3 of their 5 games this season. 🟤I would have interest in both Watson and Amari Cooper if Deshawn is back under center this week as the pair only costs $11,800 and the Colts have surrendered some monster games to WR1 already this season. 🟤At RB, both Taylor and Moss are strong options who can explode for big games, but continue to split time and thus are hard to get to at $6,500 and $6,200 respectively. 🟤Minshew turned the ball over 4 times last week so CLE D certainly in play. BILLS at PATRIOTS 🔷Josh Allen has been a mixed bag against NE, although historically faring much better in their second matchup each season. His past fantasy scores against the Pats: 2022 - 16.9 and 22.1 2021 - 11.7 and 31.0 2020 - 13.5 and 32.3 2019 - 11.7 and 20.6 2018 - 11.7 (only one start against NE) 🔷Stefon Diggs has only eclipsed 30 DK points 4 times in his past 40 games, and at $8,900, this doesn’t feel like a spot I’m going to him in. 🔷James Cook is averaging over 15 RB opportunities a game this season but has yet to exceed 23 DK points. At $6,400, he feels too expensive for his low TD expectations. 🔷On the NE side, Mac Jones surpassed 30 pass attempts last week (33) for the first time since week 2, although this Patriots offense continues to look anemic. The Patriots are only averaging 12 points per game and it likely isn’t going to get easier facing a formidable Bills DST this week. 🔷Buffalo DST in consideration as a pay up option as it's been ingrained in DFS player's minds to pay down at the position. COMMANDERS at GIANTS 🟡If active, Jones is an intriguing option at $5,600 at home against a Washington team that has surrendered at least 22 DK points to the QB position each of the past 5 weeks. 🟡The Commanders run defense has been above average this year while Barkley has exceeded 30 DK points just once in his past 30 games. At $8,100, I feel like there will be better RB spots this week. 🟡At WR, Wan’Dale Robinson is coming off 18 catches in his past 3 games and at $3,800 is a strong consideration as a value WR this week. 🟡At $5,400, McLaurin is interesting as well with 10+ targets 2 of the past 3 weeks. FALCONS at BUCCANEERS 🟥Divisional matchup between two teams who know each other well. Winner will be leading the division afterwards. Atlanta and Tampa are both in the bottom 10 for PROE (pass rate over expectation), but both teams have above average run defenses. 🟥I do have some early interest in Ridder (again) who has 185 pass attempts in his past 5 games. 🟥Drake London is averaging over 8 targets a game during that same stretch. 🟥As far as RBs go, the past two games have seen rushing attempts of 28 for Bijan Robinson and 30 for Tyler Allgeier, so it’s hard for me to get on Bijan at $7,300, especially at the ownership he’s seen every week. 🟥At $5,100 Rashaad White is intriguing as he’s averaging over 17 RB opportunities a game, but this feels like a slugfest with the likeliest outcome a 21-17 game. STEELERS at RAMS 🟨The field continues to roster Stafford at double digit ownership most weeks despite the fact that he has 2 games of 30 DK points since the start of 2021 (where he’s started 32 games). 🟨Kyren Williams was the only show in town averaging 24 opportunities a week, but is likely to miss this game with a sprained ankle. Backup Ronnie Rivers is also expected to miss with a sprained PCL, leaving rookie Zack Evans as the only healthy RB on the roster at the stone minimum. 🟨I’d expect Royce Freeman to be elevated from the practice squad to split reps with Evans, however this likely leads the Rams to lean on the pass more heavily this week. 🟨Cooper Kupp is right back to the role (and unfortunately price) we’re accustomed to, putting up a 15-266-1 line in his two games back from injury. He has one of, if not the safest floor on the slate, but is $9,500. 🟨 I wonder if the Rams also find a way to get the ball in Tutu Atwell’s hands more at $4,300. CARDINALS at SEAHAWKS 🟩After giving up 88 points the first 3 weeks of the season to the Rams, Lions & Panthers, Seattle limited the Panthers & Giants to just 20 total combined the past 2 games. 🟩On the surface it feels like a good spot for Geno Smith. He has 2 games already this season with 40+ passing attempts & 300 yards, and is facing a Cardinals defense that is allowing an average of 32 points against them this season. 🟩Kenneth Walker is in a great on paper matchup, but is only averaging 1.5x his salary on pre-touchdown fantasy points. Tough to pull the trigger at his $7k salary, where he likely needs the 100 yard bonus & 2 touchdowns to hurt you. 🟩The Cards RB situation is a mess after James Conners injury with Keontay Ingram, Damian Williams & Emari Demarcado all splitting carries. 🟩The only Cardinal I’m initially interested in is Hollywood Brown, who has double digit targets in 4 of his past 5 games and $5,300 is just too cheap for that kind of volume. PACKERS at BRONCOS 🔵The Packers come off their bye week to face the Broncos, who sport one of the weakest defenses in the league. They’ve given up some huge games to primary pass catchers season. 🔵With that said, I have initial interest in Aaron Jones (if healthy), AJ Dillion (if no Jones), both Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, and Luke Musgraves as a cheap TE option. 🔵Jordan Love is also in consideration at $5,800 since I like all his supporting cast. 🔵On the Broncos side, Russell Wilson has been under the radar good, and at $5400, is in play along with both of his primary pass catchers. 🔵Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are both in the $5k price tier & are both averaging 6 targets per game. This is a game I’ll likely have stacks of this week. CHARGERS at CHIEFS 🔥This is definitely (one of) the best on paper game environments on the slate, but will not go unnoticed by the field. 🔥Mahomes is averaging over 37 pass attempts per game this season, while the Chargers have surrendered an average of 26 points against. 🔥Not that you need incentive to fire up Travis Kelce, but if Taylor Swift is going to be in attendance you know he’s catching a TD (or three). 🔥I feel like the perception is that you can't run against the Chargers, however versatile RBs have done well against them. Pacheco has also been a nice surprise this season, averaging just shy of 18 opportunities a game, while being more involved in the passing game. 🔥At $6,100, he’ll definitely be in my pool as the field is likely to build / account for the scoring from this game to come through the air. 🔥On the Chargers side of the ball, Keenan Allen has been on a heater. Since Mike Williams got hurt, he has 46 targets with a receiving line of 36-443-4, along with a passing TD. 🔥Austin Ekeler is also back in the fold and has 20+ opportunities in both of his two games this season. This is definitely a game I'm considering for game stacks. - All Edge games will be available on the site by Thursday night! -@wgabelman

NFL DFS: WEEK 9 A first look at all 10 games on the Main Slate! SEAHAWKS at RAVENS 🐦‍⬛Seattle surrendered a combined rushing line of 17-109-1 to the two mobile QBs they’ve faced (Jones & Dobbs), which makes Lamar Jackson initially very appealing. 🐦‍⬛My initial interest in Lamar extends to both his primary pass catchers, Zay Flowers & Mark Andrews, however, I doubt this take will be sneaky. 🐦‍⬛On the ground, Gus Edwards is likely to garner some ownership coming off a 3 TD performance and back-to-back games of 20+ DK points, however, it’s not a spot I’m interested in. 🐦‍⬛Ravens Pass D is elite so no interest in Geno. 🟢If I include a runback in my Lamar builds or a Seattle player in my overall player pool, Lockett is my initial favorite. 🟢The Seahawks started the season giving up 300+ yard passing games to Stafford, Goff & Dalton. They have been better statistically in the past few games, however, albeit against PJ Walker, Josh Dobbs, Daniel Jones & Joe Burrow (recovering from injury). CARDINALS at BROWNS 🔴Cardinals coach Matt Gannon mentioned Monday that Kyler Murray (or Clayton Tune) would start against the Browns. Due to the nature of the slate, Murray will draw interest if he starts, and I may be in that boat as well at his $5,900 price tag. 🔴On the ground, Demercado is coming off back-to-back games of 18 or more opportunities. He’s of interest at $4,700 as a pay-down option. 🔴At WR, I’ll have interest in Hollywood Brown, who is averaging over 8.5 targets a game, if Kyler starts. 🟠If Deshaun were to start for Cleveland I’d have potential interest in both QBs. 🟠On the CLE side, too much uncertainty between Ford/Hunt/Strong at this point in the week for me. 🟠On the other side of the ball, Amari Cooper at home is interesting, especially if Watson plays. RAMS at PACKERS 🧀Is Jordan Love interesting this week? Maybe. 🧀Only 3 QBs have surpassed 230 yards against LA (Hurts, Burrow, and Prescott), but Dobbs, Hurts, and Anthony Richardson all found success on the ground, while Pickett and Purdy also had rushing TDs. 🐏For the Rams, Stafford’s top game this year is 20.2 DK points, and is dealing with a UCL thumb sprain in his throwing hand. 🐏At RB, Henderson has seen 15 or more opportunities in back-to-back games since Kyren Williams’ injury and also caught my eye as a potential pay-down option. 🐏If Stafford is good to go, I’ll have some interest in Cooper Kupp, who is seeing just shy of 10 targets a week but hasn’t produced the last two weeks, which may lead to lower ownership, especially since the field is likely to be drawn to AJ Brown and CeeDee Lamb. VIKINGS at FALCONS 🔴It’s entirely possible we see Taylor Heinicke replace Ridder, which would improve the outlook for London/Pitts/Bijan. 🔴On the ground, both MIN and ATL are split backfields, however, Bijan has 16+ opportunities in every game this season (excluding his week 7 game where he was sick). 🟣Big loss for the Vikings losing Cousins for the season on Sunday. Definitely downgrades Addison, Hockenson & Jefferson (when he returns from IR). 🟣No interest in any Viking WR here without Cousins. BUCCANEERS at TEXANS 🔴This should be a good spot for Stroud but he has 30 or fewer pass attempts in 4 of his past 5 games. 🔴At WR, both Nico Collins and Tank Dell are interesting as Tampa has been gashed through the air this season, allowing 100+ receiving games to Jefferson, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, and Amon-Ra St Brown. 🏴‍☠️The Bucs WR can always hit, but both are too expensive for me in the $7k tier for their likeliest outcomes. 🏴‍☠️On the ground, Rachaad White continues to be fed the rock, averaging over 13 rushes and 4 receptions a game. The Texans have surrendered over 100 total yards in half of their games to Zack Moss, Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Alvin Kamara, so White is of interest. COMMANDERS at PATRIOTS 🏈Howell has such a wide range of outcomes in terms of pass attempts; through 8 games he has 2 games in the twenties, 2 in the thirties, 2 in the low forties, and two over 50. 🏈He’s had two salary-considered monster performances, however not surprisingly, both came in the two games he attempted over 50 passes. He’s put up 3x his current salary in 75% (6 of 8) games this season so he’s likely in consideration for me this week. 🏈At WR, McLaurin has averaged 9.5 targets in the past five weeks and his price continues to stay in the mid $5k range. Seems like a strong value. 🔴For the Pats, Mac Jones only has one game in his last 6 with 30+ pass attempts and just lost his #1 target (Bourne) for the season. Even at $4,900, I don’t think I’ll get there. 🔴On the ground, neither matchup is intimidating, but only Raheem Mostert surpassed 100 yards on the ground against NE, which makes it hard to get to Brian Robinson as a yardage and TD back. 🔴The season-ending injury to Bourne likely means a great opportunity for Pop Douglas, and at $4k, he feels like a strong gamble to take against a horrendous Commanders secondary. BEARS at SAINTS 🐻Rookie Tyson Bagent will make his third start for the Bears on the road in the SuperDome - likely not getting there. ⚜️Carr has 3 straight games of 20+ DK points and is facing a Bears D that has allowed 20+ DK points to 75% of QBs they faced this season. He’s in consideration this week for me. ⚜️On the ground: Kamara’s usage continues to be elite, potentially the best in the entire league. In his 5 games played this season, he’s averaging 17 rushes along with 9 targets per game. $8,100 is expensive, but on a potentially low-scoring week, raw points are emphasized and it’s hard to ignore his floor/ceiling combo. ⚜️At WR, all three options (Olave / Thomas / Shaheed) are of interest to me. Initially, Carr doubles (including Kamara) seem like a good way to save some salary. COLTS at PANTHERS ⚫️Bryce Young is also sneakily in consideration this week as the Colts have allowed 36+ points in three straight games (while facing Trevor Lawrence, PJ Walker, and Derek Carr). ⚫️On the ground, the Panthers are horrendous against the run. Feels like another great spot to go back to Jonathan Taylor (or Zach Moss). They continue to split touches, but both have been uber-efficient. ⚫️At $5k, Hubbard is also interesting as he’s had games of 17 and 20 touches the past two weeks, and appears to have taken the starting role away from Miles Sanders. ⚫️At WR, Theilen has seen his price elevate all the way to $7,500 with 59 targets in his past 5 games. Hard to ignore that level of involvement. 🐴On the other side of the ball, Josh Downs has been really strong this year and is of interest at $5,200. 🐴Minshew has 40+ pass attempts in 75% of the games he’s started, and while the Panthers are best attacked on the ground, I will definitely be considering Minshew again this week. GIANTS at RAIDERS ⚫️Only Tua & Purdy surpassed 250 passing yards against the Giants and no QB has yet to account for more than 2 TDs - not a spot to jump on Jimmy G. ⚫️On the ground, both Jacobs & Barkley are expensive but are workhorses, and as such are interesting with a 30+ point upside. ⚫️Davante Adams was visibly upset after MNF yesterday and while I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s fed targets, I initially prefer the other pay-up options at WR on this slate. 🔵For the Giants, neither Tyrod nor Danny Dimes are catching my eye as the Giants have been bad offensively all year; surpassing 16 points only once all season. COWBOYS at EAGLES 🦅Hurts is probably the safest bet for 20+ points at QB. He’s had 6 straight weeks of 275+ passing yards and two or more TDs. 🦅Since taking over the starting role in week 2, D’Andre Swift’s workload has been elite - averaging 21 opportunities (rushes + targets) a game. 🦅The Eagles Run D is elite so no initial interest in Pollard as the Eagles are most vulnerable through the air. 🦅AJ Brown has been a beast, averaging 8-138-1 in his past 6 games. At TE, Goedert is more interesting to me than Ferguson, who has been TD-dependent. 🔵For Dallas, Dak is coming off a season-high 32-point performance himself. 🔵The only two teams that didn’t have a 20-point WR score against the Eagles were TB (17 points for Evans) & NYJ (17 points for Garrett Wilson). For DAL, Lamb/Cooks/Gallup all of interest. This thread was written by: @wgabelman Find the full FREE writeups for all the games by Thursday at One Week Season!

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 14:

NFL EDGE WEEK 5 🏈Start your Week 5 research with a breakdown from every game!🗒️ TEXANS (20) at FALCONS (21.5) 🐦‍⬛ Bijan Robinson has garnered snap rates of 72 percent, 81 percent, and 76 percent over the previous three games, handling 62.8 percent of the team’s running back opportunities during that timeframe. 🐦‍⬛ The Falcons run man coverage at a top 10 rate in the league and just had A.J. Terrell line up opposite Calvin Ridley on 79 percent of their snaps last week. 🟥 Nico Collins ranks third in fantasy points per route run (per PFF, 1.13) and carries the top overall receiving grade against man coverage (per PFF). 🟥 Tank Dell ranks sixth in fantasy points per route run against man coverage (per PFF). 🟥 C.J. Stroud has averaged more than 300 pass yards per game and has thrown six touchdowns this season, five of which have gone to Collins or Dell. 🟥 The Texans face the third-highest neutral rush rate against this season and the Falcons sport the league’s highest rush rate over expectation (RROE). PANTHERS (17) at LIONS (27) 🦁 Amon-Ra St. Brown did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday while dealing with an abdomen injury. 🦁 Jameson Williams makes his season debut after seeing his six-game suspension reduced to four games – his 4.39 speed and downfield acumen bring one of the missing pieces to this Lions offense. 🦁 David Montgomery has played two games where he wasn’t injured during or missed entirely – in those games; he has seen 53 carries and two targets. 🦁 Montgomery has also scored five touchdowns in what amounts to 2.5 games worth of offensive snaps. 🦁 The rushing matchup for Detroit yields the week’s third-best net-adjusted line yards metric in one of the biggest mismatches of the week. GIANTS (18.75) at DOLPHINS (29.75) 🔴 Wink Martindale’s Giants defense has been in man coverage at the highest rate in the league through the first month of play (45.1 percent), ranking second in blitz rate (49.6 percent) and forcing the third shallowest defensive aDOT (6.7). 🔴 Even with the continued utilization of heavy blitz rates, the Giants rank 23rd in pressure rate, have just four sacks in as many weeks and have missed the second most tackles (40). 🔴 I’m writing this before the teams release their first injury reports of the week, but the big name to keep an eye on is Giants running back Saquon Barkley, who went into the team’s Week 4 Monday Night Football game doubtful and was ultimately held out. 🔴 I honestly have no clue what to expect with the team on a short week, and they are likely to only run a walkthrough practice on Wednesday considering their late-week game in Week 4, so monitor the situation carefully this week. Saquon’s presence would be a big boost to the game environment here. 🐬 Miami leads the league in explosive rush rate and the Giants have given up the fifth-highest rate of explosive rush plays. 🐬 The Dolphins lead the league in points per game at a whopping 37.5. Even if we remove their 70-point outburst against the Broncos, this offense is averaging 26.67 points per game in their other three games this season, which came against the Chargers, Patriots, and Bills. That would still rank eighth in the league. This offense can put up points with the best of them. 🐬 Miami averages a ridiculous 511.0 yards of offense per game this season, which is 113.0 more per game than the second-place 49ers (LOL!). 🔴 The Giants average the second-fewest yards per game this year at just 252.0. 🐬 Yup, you read that right – the Dolphins average more than double the yards per game than the Giants. TITANS (22.75) at COLTS (20.25) 🔷 After missing the team’s Week 4 contest with a knee injury, wide receiver Treylon Burks has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday). 🐎 Sound the alarm! Jonathan Taylor was a full participant in each practice period this week (as of Thursday) – it appears he will likely make his season debut against the Titans after calling his recent contract dispute with the team “an offseason issue.” 🐎 Kwity Paye (concussion) and Shaquille Leonard (groin) have yet to practice this week for the Colts, two staples of their defense. 🔷 Tennessee’s offensive line is blocking to just 1.06 yards before contact per rush, which ranks second worst in the league this year (behind only Carolina). 🐎 Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is one of the most dynamic athletes in today’s game, and he brings weekly upside with both his arm and legs. 🐎 The Colts have played at the fastest pace in the league through the first month of play. RAVENS (21.25) at STEELERS (16.75) 🟪 Rashod Bateman returned to a full practice Wednesday, while Odell Beckham Jr. remained a limited participant with his ankle injury. 🚧 Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth was labeled “very doubtful” for Sunday by head coach Mike Tomlin. 🚧 Four Pittsburgh starting offensive linemen missed practice Wednesday (Dan Moore, Isaac Seumalo, James Daniels, and Chukwuma Okorafor). 🚧 Kenny Pickett left the team’s Week 4 loss to the Texans with a knee injury and was limited in practice to start the week – he anticipates playing in Week 5 with a knee brace. 🚧 Diontae Johnson remains out of the Pittsburgh lineup for at least one more game. 🚧 The Steelers have been in man coverage at a 25.9 percent clip this season, which ranks 12th in the league; their 48.4 coverage grade when in man ranks 29th, per PFF. 🟪 Of Baltimore wide receivers, only Odell Beckham Jr. (44.4 percent) and Zay Flowers (25.9 percent) carry target rates higher than 18 percent against man coverage. 🟪 Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers set up well to exploit this matchup through the air, with expected volume as the biggest detractor. SAINTS (19.75) at PATRIOTS (19.75) 🔒 The best plays from this game are the defenses. ⚜️ Derrick Carr had an absurdly low 3.4 yards per attempt last week. ⚜️ Alvin Kamara had 33 yards on 13 catches last week. ▫️ The Patriots defense is missing several key starters. ▫️ The Patriots backfield is becoming a timeshare. 🔒 Both offensive coordinators look lost. LATE GAMES 🕓 CHIEFS (28.25) at VIKINGS (24.25) 🏈 Hard to draw up a more exciting on-paper matchup than this one between the first- and third-ranked teams in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). Both teams enter this game off “close calls” against lower-tier competition in Week 5. 🏈 Kansas City is still in control of its division, while Minnesota is trying to avoid being left in the dust. 🟪Minnesota’s defense has had an up-and-down season, but it has struggled against teams with higher-end quarterbacks – which Patrick Mahomes probably qualifies as. 🔥 Kansas City’s defense has only surrendered 52 points through four games (13 points per game) and has yet to allow an opposing offense to score 20 points in a game. 🏈 Explosive players on both sides of this game possess the ability to take the lid off this one at any point. EAGLES (27) at RAMS (23) 🦅 The Eagles offense continues to hum this season as they have scored at least 25 points in all four games, rank 3rd in the NFL in both rushing offense DVOA and yards per carry and have one of the most explosive and talented passing attacks in the league. 🐏 The Rams have been very efficient offensively this season and will get star wide receiver Cooper Kupp back in some capacity this week. 🐏 Los Angeles will likely have little success running the ball this week and will likely be forced into a high volume of pass attempts due to matchup and game script. 🦅 Philadelphia has huge advantages at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. 🏈We will likely see a very high volume of pass attempts in this game due to how both defenses funnel their opponents. BENGALS (23.75) at CARDS (20.75) 🏈Both of these teams have had surprising performances to start the season, with the Bengals offense failing to meet expectations and the Cardinals being impressively competitive through four weeks. 🐅 Joe Burrow’s injured calf has crippled his mobility and made the Bengals passing offense a shell of the unit we are used to seeing. 🐦Arizona has a very conservative approach on both sides of the ball that has helped them overcome some personnel deficiencies. 🐦 The Cardinals' offense is one of only a couple of teams to rank top 10 in the NFL in DVOA via both the run and the pass. They also profile very similarly to the Titans offense, who just played their best game of the season against this Bengals defense. 🐅 Cincinnati has lost their two road games this season by a combined total of 51 to 6. JETS (20.5) at BRONCOS (23) ✈️ Most of this game’s outlook will depend on the offensive mindset that the Jets start with. ✈️ New York has faced an extremely difficult schedule of defenses to start the year but gets a reprieve against a historically bad defense. 🐴 The Broncos offense operates with a very broad distribution of touches and has primarily been reactionary in its approaches to opponents so far this season. 🐴 Denver is hoping to get some key defenders back this week, but the Broncos are unlikely to completely turn this thing around in one week. ✈️ Common opponents between the Jets and Bears could potentially provide a glimmer of optimism for Zach Wilson and the Jets. Want to learn more about these games? You can find the entire NFL Edge for FREE at One Week Season. All NFL Edge games are written and researched by @HilowFF, @mjohnson_86, @Papy324, @xandamere, and @JMToWin

Week 5 DFS Chalk RB:💨 ▫️DE'VON ACHANE (24%) ▫️BIJAN ROBINSON (23%) ▫️BREECE HALL (14%) ▫️JOE MIXON (21%) ▫️ALVIN KAMARA (18%) ▫️DAVID MONTGOMERY (18%) WR:👐 ▫️JUSTIN JEFFERSON (20%) ▫️JA'MARR CHASE (22%) ▫️TYREEK HILL (22%) ▫️WAN'DALE ROBINSON (19%) RUNNING BACKS💨 BREECE HALL ✈️First off, the comments surrounding Breece Hall and a potential easing of his strict snap count to this point in the season were vastly overstated by a major media outlet this week. ✈️That said, Hall ranks second in the league amongst qualified running backs in yards per touch at 6.8, behind only the previously discussed Achane. ✈️The matchup is also as pure as they come against a Denver defense allowing a robust 5.6 yards per carry. The Broncos also allow 1.50 yards before contact per carry this season, good for third worst in the league. DE’VON ACHANE 🐬Achane carries an absurd 9.0 true yards per carry, 10.3 yards per touch, 45.7 percent juke rate, and 18.5 percent breakaway run rate into Week 5, all of which rank first in the league amongst qualified running backs. 🐬He has 16 evaded tackles on 27 carries and eight receptions, which is by far the highest per-touch elusiveness rating through the season’s first month of play. He also seemingly took over the lead back role in the Miami backfield in the second half of the team’s Week 4 loss to the Bills. 🐬The problem with assuming the workload will carry forward is the game environment in which it occurred, with a pure negative game script likely contributing to the second-half snap rate split and touch dispersal between him and Raheem Mostert. 🐬In other words, did Achane supplant Mostert, or was his usage a product of the game environment? That’s an important distinction considering the vastly different game environment expected in Week 5 against the Giants. Finally, the Giants allow a ridiculous 1.80 yards before contact per rush against this season. BIJAN ROBINSON 🐦‍⬛The electric rookie running back leads the league in reception amongst qualified backs this season and has rushed for 318 yards through his first four NFL games, the latter of which ranks third in the league. His 5.6 true yards per carry ranks sixth in the league. 🐦‍⬛At some point this season, Bijan Robinson is going to find the end zone multiple times in a game regardless of the fact he has just one carry inside the 10 compared to five for Tyler Allgeier. The ticking time bomb could go off at any moment. JOE MIXON 🐅 Joe Mixon’s 84.7 percent opportunity share ranks fourth in the league but is weighed down by a 4.1 true yards per carry, the latter of which ranks 29th. A 44.7 percent route participation rate could increase should Higgins miss. ALVIN KAMARA ⚜️13 catches on 14 targets in his first game action of the season in Week 4 has the field giddy to shove Alvin Kamara into their rosters through a Vegas implied team total of just 19 points. For comparison, the Jets are projected for 20.5 points currently. DAVID MONTGOMERY 🦁The Panthers allow 1.50 yards before contact per carry this season, good for a tie for third worst in the league through four weeks. 🦁The Lions have one of the highest red zone rush rates in the league. Finally, Detroit is currently instilled as a 10 point home favorite. Everything lines up well for David Montgomery to approach or surpass his “healthy game average” of 26.5 carries and one target. 🦁Finally, Montgomery is on pace for two touchdowns per four quarters played, with five scores through 10 quarters. WIDE RECEIVERS:👐 JUSTIN JEFFERSON 🟪He’s Justin Jefferson – the man is always in play. The other side of that argument is a Steve Spagnuolo defense that is designed to limit alpha wide receivers such as Jefferson. 🟪While that lowers his chances of putting the slate squarely out of reach (as in, you had to have him in order to win anything this weekend), Jefferson has still scored between 26.5 and 30.9 DK points in every contest this season. JA’MARR CHASE 🐅Ja’Marr Chase is the unquestioned alpha for a broken offense, one that is severely limited by a quarterback who lacks any semblance of mobility in the pocket. 🐅That immobility has forced Zac Taylor to run an offense based exclusively out of the gun, which to this point in the season has limited his ability to generate much misdirection pre-snap via motion. 🐅Since the personnel on the roster precludes the Bengals from playing a true Z-type wide receiver, paired with the limited pre-snap movement, it allows opposing defenses to play more straight-up two-high defensive alignments, limiting the per-touch upside from the entire offense in the process. 🐅Enter a Jonathan Gannon defense that plays a modified two-high defensive scheme through shallow safeties (about 10-12 yards in depth beyond the line of scrimmage compared to the more natural 18-20 yards in other defenses around the league), which further limits the per-touch upside of all Bengals skill position players here. 🐅The injury to Tee Higgins could give Chase a clear path to 13-15 targets in this spot, but the limited upside lessens the chances of Chase burning you for not playing him. TYREEK HILL 🐬Wink Martindale, the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants, has blitzed and run man coverage at the second highest rates in the league this season. Will that continue against the most dynamic offense in the league? Sheesh, I sure hope so! 🐬Tyreek Hill against primary man coverage over the previous two seasons with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa is one of the great cheat codes of modern football. WAN’DALE ROBINSON 🔹Wan’dale Robinson was hand-selected by the current coaching regime as a second round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. His 28.2 percent targets per route run rate highlights his schemed usage in the offense. 🔹That said, Robinson carries a paltry 3.4 aDOT on 11 targets this season (6.2 aDOT in 2022) and played just 64 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 4, splitting time with another hand-picked asset on the offense in Parris Campbell. 🔹Robinson is objectively underpriced (duh, he’s priced at the minimum on DraftKings) but has very little chance to provide anything more than a solid cost-considered salary multiplier in this spot. The rest of @HilowFF's End Around can be found on The Scroll!

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 3:

NFL DFS WEEK 13 🏈A first look at the upcoming 10-game slate! LIONS 🦁at SAINTS ⚜️ ⚜️If the Saints are in fact without all three of their primary WRs, Kamara becomes interesting as we’ve seen him have 14 targets multiple times this season. 🦁On the other side of the ball, both Gibbs and Montgomery continue to split work and are too expensive for me for their likeliest outcomes. ⚜️The Saints haven’t allowed a QB to surpass 268 yards this season and Jared Goff has traditionally performed better at home. ⚜️Carr is more interesting on paper, however he’s yet to put up 22.4 DK points (4x his current salary) and may be missing Olave, Shaheed, and Michael Thomas. 🦁Thru the air, only Chris Godwin surpassed 100 receiving yards (on 11 targets) against the Saints, which makes St. Brown’s $8,500 salary tough to swallow. ⚜️This might be a game I avoid outside of one-offs on either Kamara or Taysom Hill. CHARGERS ⚡️at PATRIOTS 🟥 🟥 Theoretically, this should be a good on paper matchup and both Patriots QBs are $4,800, however both have been bad. If we get some news later in the week on a starter, especially if its Zappe, I might have some interest in this spot. ⚡️On the ground, Ekeler has only put up 3x his current salary once all season and the Patriots have only allowed 1 RB (Raheem Mostert) to surpass 80 rush yards and no back has more than 5 receptions or 53 yards receiving. Hard to get to Ekeler at $8,300 for me this week. 🟥 Rhamondre on the other hand has seen 25 opportunities in back-to-back games while Mac Jones has struggled, and the Chargers have given up several big games to RBs this season. ⚡️Keenan Allen’s role has been absolutely elite this season, averaging just under 12 targets a game (which leads the league) and I would expect him to be peppered again this week with all the injuries to the Chargers WRs. 🟥 On the other side of the ball, if Demario Douglas were to miss, DeVante Parker and JuJu both become interesting as punt WR options against this Charger secondary that has been gashed all season. FALCONS 🐦‍⬛ at JETS ✈️ 💪 A matchup featuring Desmond Ridder and Tim Boyle is probably another spot I avoid on this 10-game slate, although Boyle is at least moderately interesting at $4,800. 🐦‍⬛ We all know Atlanta wants to run the ball, and the Jets are most susceptible to success on the ground. Enter Bijan Robinson who has opportunity counts of 22 and 24 the past two weeks at $6,700. ✈️ Thru the air, Garrett Wilson is at least mildly interesting as he saw 10 targets in Tim Boyle’s first start and Atlanta is easier to pass against than run against. With this in mind, I’ll probably also consider Ty Conklin as a punt TE at $3k flat. CARDINALS 🐦at STEELERS 🚧 🐦 Kyler Murray’s price continues to rise and his scores have been bolstered by rushing TDs in all three of his starts this year. Take out those 6 points, and his top score would be 16.7. No thank you at $7,000. 🚧 On the other side of the ball, Kenny Pickett is coming off his best game of the season in his first week without Matt Canada and is only $5,100. 🚧 The Cardinals have been one of the most generous opponents to QBs, and Pickett has shown some rushing upside, with 4 or more rushing attempts in over half the Steelers’ games this season. 🚧 On the ground, the main question is how much Jalen Warren am I going to have after such a harsh letdown last week 🚧 As far as pass catchers go, the three main weapons for PIT (Johnson, Pickens and Freiermuth) are all cheap and in consideration if going with a Pickett stack. 🐦 For Arizona, Greg Dortch out-snapped both Rondale Moore and Zach Pascal the past two weeks, and if Michael Wilson is out again this week, Dortch will be in consideration for my player pool as a pay down option at WR coming off back to back weeks of 8 or more targets. COLTS 🐎 at TITANS 🛡️ 🐎 On the ground, the matchup isn’t great but with the news of Jonathan Taylor having surgery and out for a few weeks, how owned is Zack Moss going to be at $4,600?? First thought is that 50% feels about right. 🛡️ On the other side of the ball Derrick Henry is also interesting in a great on-paper matchup as most people won’t want to roster two RBs from the same game. 🐎 Initially, an interesting angle I thought of was playing a Minshew, Moss and Downs stack at only $15,000 in DK salary. At $7,100 Pittman feels too expensive as he’s yet to put up 24 DK points all season. DOLPHINS 🐬 at COMMANDERS 🟨 🐬 Tua is near the top of my list in terms of QBs for consideration this week. 🟨 On the Washington side, Sam Howell continues to average over 40 pass attempts a week and I expect him to surpass that season average against this Miami team. 🐬 Along with not being good against the pass, the Commanders are also not an imposing matchup to RBs and Mostert seen 21+ opportunities in back-to-back games with Devon Achane injured. If he’s out again this week, Mostert is interesting to me as both a one-off, and as well as part of a stack with Tua and Tyreek/Waddle. 🐬 Speaking of Tyreek and Waddle, both are in on-paper smash spots, however they are both expensive. 🟨 For Washington, all of McLaurin, Dotson, Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel are interesting as considerations for bring backs on any Miami stacks. BRONCOS 🐴 at TEXANS 🐂 🐂 This is a tougher matchup than it originally appears for CJ Stroud and his price is up to $8,100!!! 🐴 Russell Wilson is initially interesting to me at $5,700. 🐴 Despite the improvement in the pass game, the Broncos have remained bad against the run. 🐴 Thru the air, Tank Dell and Nico Collins are interesting every week as the Texans have put up 9 instances of a pass catcher going for 26 or more points, with a majority coming from Dell and Collins. PANTHERS 😼 at BUCCANEERS 🏴‍☠️ 😼 This could be an intriguing spot for Bryce Young as the Panthers fired Frank Reich on Monday and Tampa has allowed 4 of the past 7 QBs they’ve faced to surpass 320 yards while throwing for at least 2TDs. 🏴‍☠️ I don’t have interest in Baker Mayfield, but Rachaad White caught my eye in this matchup, and despite it only being a 10-game slate, White is the 14th most expensive RB. 😼 If playing Young, he’s best paired with Thielen or Mingo. Thielen’s price is the cheapest it’s been since week 6, and he’s still averaging over 8 targets a game during that stretch. He’s an interesting buy-low spot. NINERS ⛏️ at EAGLES 🦅 🦅The Niners have one of, if not, the best defense in the league so my initial interest in Hurts is low at $8,200. ⛏️On the other side of the ball, Brock Purdy is interesting as the Eagles have allowed multiple 300+ yard games but no RB has eclipsed 89 yards rushing. ⛏️While CMC can hit in any matchup, $9,000 just feels too expensive in this spot. 🦅The one area the 49ers defense has been below average is through the air, so this may be a sneaky spot of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith as I assume the field would rather pay up for Hill or Waddle. ⛏️On the other side of the ball, this sets up as a great matchup for both Aiyuk and Kittle. My initial thought is on a week where many will again want to pay up for WR, Kittle will probably go under owned. BROWNS 🐶 at RAMS 🐏 🐏Coming off his best game of the year with 24 DK points (took 4 TDs to do it), Stafford now gets a top 2 unit against the pass in the Browns. 🐶 On the other side of the ball, DTR (Dorian Thompson-Robinson) left last week’s game with a concussion and is unlikely to suit up this week. If he misses, we are likely to see Joe Flacco. Hard pass for me. 🐶On the ground, Ford and Hunt continue to split work for the Browns, making it hard to bet on either, although their salaries ($5,500 and $4,700) make them worth considering, however they will both likely be completely overlooked with Zack Moss at $4,600. 🐏On the other side of the ball and coming of a 41.2 slate breaking performance, Kyren Williams resumed his lead back role and continues to average 20+ opportunities a week. He’s in play again this week, however the matchup is a bit tougher. 🐏The Browns present a very tough matchup through the air, and while Kupp and Nacua can hit despite the matchup, I’m not initially interested in this spot for WRs for either team. 🐶The only pass catcher who did catch my eye is TE David Njoku, who has 24 targets the past two weeks. 🪨Upon first pass, my favorite DST units are MIA, DET, NO and PIT As a reminder, full Edge write ups will be live on the site on Thursday! @wgabelman

DFS + CHESS In Chess, we position pieces with strategic intent and leverage their strengths to gain an advantage. In DFS we do the same. Here's 6 Chess pieces Papy will be using in Week 5: PAWN – TE TUCKER KRAFT ($3,500) It’s pick your Packer week! With Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson set to sit, things are condensed to Jayden Reed ($6,500), Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000), Bo Melton ($3,300), and Kraft. Kraft gets the nod as the pawn because he’s so cheap, plays TE, and saw 86% of the snaps last week leading to nine targets. It’s hard to find that type of target volume at TE, and with all the injuries to the Packers WRs, Kraft feels as likely as any TE to see targets this week. The Rams are also injured, and pairing any of the GB pass catchers with Tutu Atwell ($4,900), Jordan Whittington ($4,600), or Demarcus Robinson ($4,800) makes for easy game stacks. KNIGHT – QB DESHAUN WATSON ($5,300) It feels yucky recommending Watson because he has been terrible since signing with the Browns, but this week offers hope for redemption. He’s priced like a punt, has been using his legs (29 rushing yards per game), and gets the pathetic Commanders secondary. Watson hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards this year, but he’s still produced DK scores of 13 // 15 // 18 // 13. None of those are great but Watson is cheap enough that they also wouldn’t totally kill you if the rest of your roster performed. It’s easy to pair Watson with Amari Cooper ($6,200) or Jerry Jeudy ($5,200) who have been his clear favorite targets. Brian Robinson Jr ($6,600) looks truly questionable but if he sits, Austin Ekeler ($5,600) makes a nice bring back on teams that stack the Browns. I don’t have a high confidence level that Watson will post a big game but the potential that he does at what is sure to be light ownership is what could win you a tournament. BISHOP – WR WAN'DALE ROBINSON ($5,600) Malik Nabers is set to miss this game which opens a ton of targets for everyone else. Robinson has already been seeing plenty of targets, with 14 // 8 // 4 // 12 to start the year and the absence of Nabers makes it feel like this is going to be another 10-target game for Robinson. Robinson’s role has prevented him from having a blow-up game, but his floor is high, and without Nabers, we could see Robinson’s ceiling show up. Darius Slayton ($3,900) and Jalin Hyatt ($3,100) were both considered for the pawn space in this article and they are both strong salary-saver plays. The targets must go somewhere and there is a good chance Seattle will be able to put up points against the Giants defense, forcing the G-men to the air. Any of the Giants WRs are viable but Robinson should function as a “slot alpha” much like prime Keenan Allen. That role can produce nice scores in PPR, with a yardage bonus, and always has a safe floor. ROOK – WR MICHAEL PITTMAN ($6,000) I waited as long as I could to write Papy’s Pieces this week in hopes of getting injury updates. Anthony Richardson is now doubtful, which means Joe Flacco ($5,500) should get the start. Pittman produced DK scores of 7 // 5 // 7 the first three weeks of the season before dropping 20 DK points against a stout Steelers defense with Flacco at the helm. With Flacco in, it’s a boost to all the Indy receivers but particularly to Pittman who is the alpha of the group. Jonathan Taylor is also set to miss this game, which opens value in Trey Sermon ($5,700) but there is a real concern that Sermon isn’t any good at football. If Sermon stinks, Flacco would be forced to the air and in that scenario, it’s hard to see Pittman failing to reach 10 targets. Add in that Pittman gets the sorry Jags secondary and he starts to look highly appealing with Flacco under center. QUEEN – JORDAN MASON ($7,400) Yardage and touchdown backs have never been more viable with all the running we are seeing and Mason even got a little involved in the passing game with three targets last week. You aren’t playing Mason for his receiving role, you’re playing him for his carry totals of 28 // 20 // 19 // 24. The 49ers want to run and have one of the best run schemes in the league. They’re at home, touchdown favorites, with a game total of 50, against a Cardinals defense that can’t stop anyone. The combination of factors in this game screams 100 yards rushing and two touches for Mason. If the 49ers end up getting an early lead, it’s not impossible for Mason to see 30 carries. That type of rushing volume is a yardage and touchdown back’s dream. I’m not brave enough to fade Mason this week, which means I’ll eat the chalk (33% ownership projection) and look to be different elsewhere on my lineups. KING – WR JA’MAR CHASE ($8,000) The CIN/BAL game is the premier spot on the slate for me. The Bengals are not always an aggressive team but for whatever reason, they always come out firing against the Ravens. This year’s Ravens profiles as an extreme pass funnel. They’re terrifying to run on but can be had through the air, which means there is no reason for the Bengals to change the way they always play against the Ravens. I think this could be a 50-pass attempt game for Joe Burrow ($6,400) and I intend to stack him with all his WRs in various ways throughout my lineups. The Bengals have been bad against the run and Derrick Henry ($7,800) regained his form in the past two weeks. It’s easy to play stacks with Burrow + two pass catchers and King Henry coming back. I like that game stack the best, but I’ll be using all types of different stacks from this game on my tighter builds. The best part? This game isn’t projected to draw high ownership. To read @Papy324's End Game, you can find Papy's Pieces in The Scroll

NFL Week 9 Cheat Sheet 🔥 🔖Bookmark this post for Sunday Morning -7 Defenses -3 Tight End Plays -5 Value Plays Under 5k -Mike's RB Tiers -8 QBs by the Numbers -The Chalk Build -7 Defenses 1. Texans 2. Rams 3. Lions 4. Falcons 5. Patriots 6. Chargers 7. Broncos nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… -3 Tight End Plays 1. Tyler Warren 2. George Kittle 3. Tucker Kraft nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… -5 Value Plays Under 5k 1. TREVEYON HENDERSON ($4,900) 2. KAREEM HUNT ($4,700) 3. KYLE MONANGAI ($4,600) 4. JAUAN JENNINGS ($4,300) 5. ALEX PIERCE ($4,600) nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… -Mike's RB Tiers Cash: Monangai, CMC, Vidal GPP: Taylor, Henderson, Hunt, Tracy, Warren Game Stacks Only: Gibbs, Etienne, Cook, Dowdle, Kyren At Your Own Risk: Bijan, Jeanty, Brown, Jacobs Do Not Play: Pollard, Marks, Dobbins, Kamara, Mason nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… -8 QBs by the Numbers 1. PATRICK MAHOMES 2. JOSH ALLEN 3. JUSTIN HERBERT 4. JARED GOFF 5. DANIEL JONES 6. AARON RODGERS 7. JAXSON DART 8. MAC JONES nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… -The Chalk Build Here’s what the build looks like in Week 9: RB 1: CMC RB 2: Monangai / Henderson / Tracy / Warren / Vidal WR: Chase/Puka/ARSB/Rice TE: Bowers/Kittle/Warren nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1…

6 Wide Receivers by the Numbers Powered by @StatRankings 1. TEZ JOHNSON — $4.3K -Tied Emeka Egbuka for 24% first read share in Week 7. -Targeted on 23% of routes (45% slot rate). -Faces NO (25th YPA allowed, 4th in explosive rate). -Saints play zone on 71.5% of snaps — great for Baker (1st QB rating vs zone). 2. GEORGE PICKENS — $7.1K -Likely shadowed by Riley Moss (allowing 14.6 YPR). 82% X-WR rate (2nd); 2.38 YPRR (10th). -4th in Catchable Air Yards, 11th in Dominator Rating. -DEN allows the deepest aDOT (9.53) in NFL. -Ultra-low ownership GPP target with massive upside. 3. DEVONTA SMITH — $5.9K - Without A.J. Brown: 6 REC / 80 YDS / 0.7 TDs avg. - +24% boost over season baseline. -Clear alpha role when Brown sits or leaves early. 4. TETAIROA MCMILLAN — $5.7K -Dalton at QB raises pass efficiency (+41 QB accuracy rank over Young). -Averages 9 targets in losses vs 6.5 in wins. -BUF secondary allowing 106+ QB rating to every starter. -Drake London (10-158-1) torched them pre-bye. -Seven-point dogs → more dropbacks = volume boost. 5. JERRY JEUDY — $4.1K -Salary dip creates value vs NE (-7 fav). -CLE leads team in first-read share (26.7%) with Gabriel. -NE defense forces 33+ pass att/g (75% yards via air). -Volume plus game script make him a viable salary relief play. 6. JAYLIN NOEL — $3.5K -Slot-heavy (73%) usage; 27% target rate on routes. -Faces SF slot CB Upton Stout (1.67 FP/target allowed, 142.3 QB rating). -Nico Collins & Kirk out → cheap path to volume in 2-WR sets. 👉 Find more One Week Stats by @MagicSportsGuy in The Scroll

JM Flips the Slate on its head The "Leverage City" block Bijan Barkley Jefferson Bourne Most won’t double pay-up at RB. That’s where the leverage starts. If Bijan + Saquon both hit for 25-30+, only a tiny fraction of lineups will have them together. You’re separating instantly. Jefferson flips the script on Jordan Mason chalk. If Mason doesn’t score — JJ probably does. He’s not just leverage, he’s the ceiling piece you want. Bourne is the sneaky piece off CMC. He’s cheap, he’s red-zone capable, and every Bourne TD is a direct hit against the highest-owned stud on the slate. When the chalk fails. You win. 👉@JMToWin's full Player Grid is up now only on OWS 🔥

CONTEST SELECTION To be consistently successful at DFS, the contests you enter mean almost as much as your roster/player selections. Here's the contests you should consider: Weekly Bankroll :: $50 $50k Huddle - $5 Single Entry $50k Pylon - $3 Single Entry $40k Nickel - $5 3-Max $15k Daily Dollar - $1 Single Entry $200k First Down - $1 20-Max $30k Quarter Jukebox - $0.25 20-Max Weekly Bankroll :: $250 All contests mentioned in “lower stakes” $200k Fair Catch - $12 Single Entry $100k Fair Catch - $12 Single Entry $50k 1st and 10 - $10 10-Max $40k Cover Four - $4 3-Max $500k Play-Action - $3 20-Max $50k Red Zone - $50 Single Entry $100 Blindside - $27 Single Entry Weekly Bankroll :: $1,000 and up All previously mentioned contests $200k Slant - $9 150-max $200k Red Zone - $50 Single Entry If you want to learn more about contest selection, we suggest jumping into The Scroll this week and reading the entirety of @wgabelman 'Contest Selection' article

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 16:

🏈NFL WEEK 8 DFS PREVIEW! PATRIOTS at DOLPHINS: 🔴Mac Jones is way more interesting than he’s going to be given credit for here. 🔴At WR, Kendrick Bourne is interesting, especially if playing Jones. He’s not a sexy click but has 16 catches the past two weeks. 🐬On the other side of the ball, Tua is less interesting. Despite facing several above-average QBs already this season (Hurts, Tua, Josh Allen, Dak) no QB has eclipsed 265 yards against NE. Can’t get to Tua here at $7.7k. 🐬Jeff Wilson was activated and was eased into action last week, but I expect his role to grow which makes Mostert at $7.7k too expensive for his likeliest outcome and role. 🐬No explanation is needed on Tyreek Hill. It’s a tough matchup but he can break the slate any given week. TEXANS at PANTHERS: 🔴At RB, this should also be a great spot for Pierce, but he split carries and was outplayed by Singletary last week. ⚫️Panthers are coming off back to back games where their D got shelled for 40+ points. First thought was that Stroud would be an interesting pay down QB, but his price is at a season high. ⚫️Will have to monitor this situation as the week goes on. Same can be said for the Panthers running game with Sanders injury. If he misses again, Hubbard would be in consideration as a pay-down option. ⚫️At WR, Theilen is interesting at $6,600 as he’s averaged 11.5 targets a game the past 5 outings. RAMS at COWBOYS 🟡Neither QB feels to be in play this week as Stafford didn’t even throw 30 times last week despite Kyren being out and he so rarely puts up a score you had to have. 🟡At RB, the only back to exceed 70 yards against the Rams was CMC (116-1) so at $7,500 Pollard feels too expensive. 🟡LA’s RB situation is a mess without Kyren and isn’t one I have any interest in. Dallas has only allowed one WR to exceed 20 DK points - Keenan Allen for 21, which makes Kupp and Nacua tough to pull the trigger on at their prices. VIKINGS at PACKERS 🟣At RB, this should be a good matchup for the Vikings on the ground as the Packers have given up some monster games (172 total yards to Bijan Robinson and 141 and 3 TDs to David Montgomery). 🟣The concern however is the Vikings continue to increase the workload for Akers making this closer to a true split backfield. Both backs are cheap, but there are spots with more certainty on usage. 🟣At WR, we got to see Jordan Addison’s coming out party on MNF and at $5,700 he’s too cheap for his role with Jefferson out. 🧀On the other side of the ball, the Packers wideouts are in a great matchup and are super cheap coming off a disappointing result against the Broncos. Watson and Doubs both of interest initially. 🧀GB has been stingy against opposing QBs, with Desmond Ridder’s 237 yards representing a season-high against them. 🧀Jordan Love initially interesting at $5.7k. SAINTS at COLTS ⚜️Coming off back-to-back games with 50+ attempts, Carr is interesting as the Colts have surrendered multiple 300-yard passing games to pocket passers (384 to CJ Stroud and 319 to Stafford). I prefer Carr to Minshew at the same price as Saints D is strong. ⚜️At RB, Kamara has played four games this season and is averaging 17 rushes and 10(!!) targets a game. At $7,200 he is underpriced for his role. ⚜️At WR, Olave has double-digit targets in 5 of his 7 games this season but was arrested Monday for reckless driving. His status is a situation to monitor. If he’s inactive, this feels like a smash spot for Shaheed at sub-$4k. 🔵On the other side of the ball, Moss and Taylor continue to split carries but both have been effective. It’s a tough matchup against the Saints but Moss has already shown that doesn’t decrease ceiling with his 36.5 output against the Titans in week 5. JETS at GIANTS ◼️The “battle” of NY (played in NJ)... Neither QB is in play as both defenses are above average and there are just better pay-down options. 🔵At $8,000 I can’t get to Barkley as he’s exceeded 30 DK points just once since the start of 2021 (30+ games). 🔵Regarding the pass catchers, both Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt are interesting as the Jets have given up several 100 yard outings to wideouts this year: 10-102-1 to Diggs, 11-143 to Lamb, and 7-131 to AJ Brown. ✈️On the Jets side, Garrett Wilson is averaging 10 targets a game the past 5 and is interesting as well as a potential one-off. ✈️At RB, Breece Hall is interesting at $5,900. Other dynamic RBs have had success against the Giants (Pollard - 82 and 2 TDs, Conner 106 and a TD, CMC 119 and a TD, and Achane 165 and a TD). JAGUARS at STEELERS 🟡Oh man, am I going to burn money playing Kenny Pickett this week? At $4,900 it feels like yes. The Jaguars have given up four 300+ yard games already, including to Carr and Minshew. The only concerning thing is Pickett has less than 30 pass attempts in 3 of his past 4 games. 🟡At RB, no interest in the Steelers backs splitting time, but Etienne is interesting with 3 straight games with 2 TDs. He only has one career game exceeding 28.8 points (4x multiplier his $7,200 salary), but offers a solid floor averaging 22 opportunities a game. 🟡At WR, I like both Pickens and Diontae Johnson, especially if considering Pickett, and both are in the $5k range. 🐆Ridley and Kirk are also in that pricing tier which makes stacking this game very affordable. Engram can also be added to that conversation. FALCONS at TITANS 🔴My first thought when I saw this match was did Drake London’s price move? (Spoiler, it did not). Against this pass funnel defense and only at $5,100, he’s one of my favorite plays early in the week. 🔴At RB, Bijan would be a pure bet on talent play, but at $6k might be worth the gamble as he’s likely to carry very low ownership coming off a one-touch performance last week where he was sick. 🔵On the other side of the ball, the Falcons haven’t allowed a RB to eclipse 80 rushing or 100 total yards all season, which makes Henry feel overpriced in this matchup. 🔵Titans are a pass funnel defense but all of Ridder’s best/usable games have come at home. Probably not a spot I’m getting to either QB, but London or Pitts succeeding doesn’t necessarily mean that Ridder is. EAGLES at COMMANDERS 🦅The Eagles continue to look like the best team in the league and this Washington defense has given up big games to QBs already this year - 300+ yards to Russell Wilson, Desmond Ridder, and Jalen Hurts once already in week 4, as well as 282 and 4 TD to Justin Fields. 🦅On the ground, Swift is interesting as his role has shifted to a bell cow role, averaging over 22 opportunities a game since week 1. 🦅No interest in either WAS back against this stout Eagles run D. 🦅At WR, AJ Brown caught my eye immediately against this Commanders D that has been gashed this season: 8-230-3 by DJ Moore, 9-175-2 by AJ Brown in week 4, 9-125 by Drake London and 8-111 by Stefon Diggs. 🦅Eagles D stood out and at $4,300 are likely to be low-owned as DFS players have been trained to pay down at DST 🟡On the other side of the ball, both McLaurin and Samuel are also interesting as the Eagles have been one of the worst defenses against WRs. BROWNS at SEAHAWKS 🟤No interest in either QB here - CLE’s D has been pretty strong overall and Deshaun looked absolutely pitiful last week coming off injury. 🟤Kareem Hunt is my highest initial interest in this game at $5,200 with Jerome Ford likely to miss. He’s likely to see 14-18 opportunities in a plus matchup. 🟤I do have some interest in Amari Cooper as he’s likely to be low-owned after disappointing many last week and has 30 point upside. 🟢After starting the season struggling mightily against WRs, the Seahawks have contained them in the last three games against ARI, CIN, and NYG. RAVENS at CARDINALS 🟣Lamar is definitely in play again this week as the only dual-threat QB the Cardinals have faced was Daniel Jones, who went for 320 and 2TD passing as well as 59 yards and a TD rushing. 🟣No interest in any RBs on either side. Both Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are once again interesting with Lamar as is Odell Beckham Jr (ducks). CHIEFS at BRONCOS 🐴The Broncos struggled mightily when facing the likes of Tua, Fields and Mahomes, who all exceeded 300 yards, but looked better against less proven competition in Jordan Love, Zach Wilson and Jimmy Garappolo. 🔴Coming off his best game of the season, Mahomes is definitely in consideration again this week. No QB has put up 20 DK points against the Chiefs this year so not considering Wilson. 🔴At RB, Pacheco continues to average 17 opportunities a game and is of interest against this Broncos D that has surrendered some massive games on the ground: Breece Hall - 194 total yards, De’Von Achane - 233 total yards and Brian Robinson - 129 total yards. 🔴Travis Kelce is the safest bet for targets and the highest ceiling for Chiefs pass catchers (duh) as their wide receiver carousel continues. 🔴Rashee Rice is the most interesting if playing a WR. BENGALS at NINERS 🐅While the 49ers have looked like one of the best defenses in the league, they have given up multiple 300-yard passing games this season (Stafford and Cousins), and haven’t exactly faced a murders row of QBs - PJ Walker, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Josh Dobbs etc. This might be a sneaky spot for Burrow. 🐅At WR, Ja’Marr Chase is interesting as SF has given up big games to opposing WR1s. 🔴For SF, Aiyuk is likely to garner ownership with Deebo probably out, but the Bengals have yet to surrender a game above 95 yards to opposing WRs. 🔴On the ground, McCaffrey saw a full workload, playing EVERY offensive snap, despite an oblique injury. He’s in play every week. - All NFL Edge games will be available on the site by Thursday -@wgabelman

THE CHALK BUILD — WEEK 9 - Cheap RBs - Elite TE - Chase/CMC/Puka Here’s what the build looks like in Week 9: RB 1: CMC RB 2: Monangai / Henderson / Tracy / Warren / Vidal WR: Chase/Puka/ARSB/Rice TE: Bowers/Kittle/Warren Value exploded at RB, and the field’s going all-in. Seven of the top nine in ownership are backs — five priced $6.3K or below. That means the chalk build is RB in the flex… again. Think Monangai / Henderson / Tracy / Warren / Vidal — with Chase or Puka jammed in up top. Tight end spend-up returns, QB spend-down follows. A “safe” construction that’s actually fragile when everyone plays it the same way. Ownership will cluster around those value RBs and elite WRs… but it won’t take much to flip that script. A single leverage pivot — different salary allocation, or a contrarian game stack — can break this slate wide open. 👉 Full End Around breakdown + game theory angles now live on OWS.

DFS Chalk :: Week 1 Current projection for 20%+ Ownership ▫️ TYREEK HILL (35%) ▫️ ALVIN KAMARA (26%) ▫️ KYLE PITTS (24%) ▫️ KENNETH WALKER (22%) ▫️ BIJAN ROBINSON (21%) ▫️ DRAKE LONDON (21%) ▫️ ANDRE IOSIVAS (20%) Who do you think disappoints?

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 1:

NFL DFS: WEEK 11 🏈A first look at the upcoming 11-game slate COWBOYS 🤠 at PANTHERS 🐈‍⬛ 🤠As weird as it this to say, Dak feels like a bargain at $7.3k this week. Since Dallas’ week 7 bye, Dak has 12 TD while averaging 360 yards passing in those 3 games. 🤠Tony Pollard is down to the cheapest he’s been all season at $6.6k and the Panthers struggle against the run. He’s averaging 18+ opportunities every week and the field might be off him after last week. It could be an interesting pivot if the DAL passing attack is highly owned. 🤠Since the bye, Lamb has seen an absurd 44 targets, producing a combined stat line of 34-500-4 during that stretch. His price is up to an astronomical $9.2k but feels justified based on his recent role 🤠Brandin Cooks is coming off his best game of the year and has a TD in 3 of the last 4 games. He’s also of interest. 🐈‍⬛The Cowboys have yet to surrender a 100-yard rushing game so no interest in CAR split backfield STEELERS 🟡 at BROWNS 🔶 🟡No interest in either Steelers running back as no RB has eclipsed 75 yards rushing against CLE (which includes some strong backs in the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, CMC, Mixon & Henry). No initial interest in any other Steelers for that matter either. 🔶While PIT hasn’t been gashed by a QB this season, Deshaun Watson is of interest as the worst QB performances this season against them is either Will Levis’ 262 yards in week 9 or Watson’s week 2 performance of 235 yards with a TD. 🔶Amari Cooper is interesting to me in a potential pairing with Watson against the Steelers' weak secondary. Cooper has exceeded 89 yards in 6 of 9 games this season and I like his upside this week. 🔶Jerome Ford is very interesting at $5.2k. He has 37 rushes and 8 combined targets the past 2 weeks coming off his ankle injury and appears to have retaken the leading role. In week 2, he totaled 131 yards and a TD against PIT. BEARS 🐻 at LIONS 🦁 🐻Justin Fields is interesting if he starts. The 3 mobile QBs that Detroit has faced (aka they had 4 or more rush attempts) all did well – Lamar Jackson: 357 passing, 36 rushing with 4 total TDs, Justin Herbert 323 passing and 15 rushing with 4 TDs and Patrick Mahomes with 226 passing, 45 rushin,g, and 2 TDs. 🦁Goff has put together 3 straight above-average performances on the road and now gets a Bears defense at home that has allowed 3 or more passing touchdowns to 40% of their opponents this season (Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Justin Herbert), which excludes Sam Howell’s 388-2 line from week 5. 🦁The RB matchup for DET looks good on paper, however the season high against the Bears is only 73 yards. Gibbs is more interesting of the two because of his pass-catching role as the Bears have given up decent passing games to the RB position – 7-94-1 for Ekeler, 4-44 for Kamara, 2-86-1 for Aaron Jones. Still, $7k for Gibbs is a tall ask. 🦁Through the air, Amon-Ra St Brown continues to be the man in Detroit, averaging just under 11 targets a game, however outside of Mike Evans back in week 2, no WR/TE has surpassed 77 receiving yards against this Bear D, which includes Kelce, Thielen, Olave, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Jordan Addison, Sutton, McLaurin, & Hockenson. CHARGERS ⚡️ at PACKERS 🧀 ⚡️Justin Herbert has been good this year, but the Packers have yet to allow a QB to exceed 275 yards or account for more than 2 TDs. At $7.6k, he’s probably too expensive in this matchup. ⚡️ The ground matchup is intriguing as both defenses are bad against the run. Ekeler is averaging over 21 opportunities (rushes + targets) a game, and the Packers have given up big games to multiple RBs this season – 172 to Bijan, 141-3 to Montgomery, 89-1 to Jacobs, and 206-2 to Najee/Warren combined. ⚡️Through the air, Keenan Allen has shown absolutely elite upside, with multiple 40-point games this season, however, he has a below-average matchup this week, as GB has only allowed one 100-yard WR this year (Olave - 8-104-0). 🧀Are we going to gamble on Jordan Love at $5.6k in a great on-paper matchup? Maybe... Through 9 games, the Chargers have faced 5 average QBs and have gotten shelled by all of them – with total yards and TDs lines of 471-3 for Tua, 377-3 for Cousins, 312-2 for Dak, 331-2 for Goff, and 453-4 for Mahomes. The worst outputs against them this season are Zack Wilson 270-0, Tyson Bagent 231-1, and Aiden O’Connell 241-1. Even the bad games aren’t really that bad. 🧀Jordan Love has cheap stacking partners in Doubs, Watson, Reed, and Musgrave, who are all in a great matchup. Initially, I’m interested in having some builds around this GB passing attack. CARDINALS 🐦 at TEXANS 🐂 🐦For Arizona, Kyler Murray made his first start back from injury last week and showed glimpses of his former self while accounting for 282 yards and a rushing TD. 🐦James Conner returned from injury and resumed his lead-back role yet is not involved in the passing game. He’s yet to put up a 20-point DK score and I think there are just better options in the mid-range on this slate. 🐂CJ Stroud has not looked like a rookie, averaging over 300 total yards per game 🐂All the pass catchers for HOU are priced up as this is an above-average spot for the Texans WRs. The Cardinals have allowed big games to the position – 6-148 to Aiyuk, 15-192 to Chase, 7-148 to Kupp, and 5-139 to Amari Cooper, so even at slightly elevated prices, I have interest in the Texans’ ceilings. TITANS ⚔️ at JAGUARS 🐈 ⚔️As weird as it is to say, Will Levis is more interesting this week than Trevor Lawrence. The Jags D has given up 280 or more passing yards to 6 of 9 QBs this season, with the only exceptions being Anthony Richardson, Desmond Ridder, and Trubisky/Pickett. ⚔️Derrick Henry’s price is $700 cheaper than we’ve seen it all season and while it’s a tough matchup on paper, the Jags have surrendered some strong games to elite RBs this season – 137 total yards to Bijan, 153 to Kamara & 142 to CMC. ⚔️At WR, Hopkins has seen 25 targets in Levis’ 3 starts & now gets a vulnerable Jax secondary. 🐈On the ground, Etienne finished with fewer than 12 carries for the first time this season as JAX abandoned the run after getting down big last week to SF. Most teams haven’t found great success on the ground against Tennessee; however, Zach Moss did go for 195 total yards & 2 TDs. The upside is there if ETN is looking to be ignored by the field. 🐈Kirk and Ridley are also interesting as both have had multiple double-digit target games & this Titans pass funnel has allowed 90+ receiving games to Evans, Diontae Johnson, Josh Downs, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen & Olave. RAIDERS 🏴‍☠️ at DOLPHINS 🐬 🏴‍☠️Aiden O’Connell isn’t cheap enough to be considered as I’ll likely find a way to pay up a few hundred more for Levis, Love, or Deshaun Watson as they’ve at least shown a ceiling. 🏴‍☠️There is definitely that risk here, however, Jacobs is averaging an insane 23 opportunities a game for his $6.8k price tag and saw 26 and 27 carries the past two weeks under new head coach Antonio Pierce. 🏴‍☠️Davante Adams is also interesting in this game as he’s seen 20 targets in the past two weeks under the new coaching regime and Vegas is likely to be trailing in the game. 🐬On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins announced that Achane has been designated for return from IR, and if he were to return Sunday would muddy up the Fins backfield. 🐬For the Dolphins, Tua is always in play with the upside Tyreek and Waddle bring, however, the Raiders have yet to allow a QB to surpass 275 yards which make $7.7k feel too expensive 🐬Tyreek Hill has averaged just under 11 targets a game this season and has 25+ DK points in 6 of 9 starts. He’s of interest every week. Waddle is just too expensive for the upside he’s shown this season. GIANTS 🔷 at COMMANDERS ⛑️ 🔷The Commanders present a middling matchup on the ground for Barkley, yet they haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season, and Tommy DeVito isn’t going to scare teams from crowding the box. ⛑️Sam Howell is initially interesting due to the ceiling he’s shown; however, the Giants did keep him to 10 DK points in Week 7. ⛑️On the ground, Brian Robinson Jr is coming off his best career receiving game, but still only saw 14 opportunities. He’s shown explosive ceiling twice already this season but only had 23 rushing yards and no receptions when these teams met earlier this season 🏈This game feels like one I may completely avoid outside of a cheaper piece from the Washington pass game. BUCCANEERS 🏴‍☠️at 49ERS 🔴 🏈When I saw the schedule, this was a spot that caught my eye. 🏴‍☠️Despite a massive workload seemingly every week, Rashaad White has only eclipsed 100 total yards 3 times all season, with 119 as his season high output. Feels like a spot I’ll be targeting in the passing games. 🏴‍☠️Mike Evans is the most interesting Bucs' pass-catching piece as he’s coming off his 4th game of the season with double-digit targets. 🔴Purdy is averaging over 300 yards at home, and it seems like the week 9 bye helped this 49ers offense reset. We’ve seen TB give up 300+ total yards to Cousins (351-2), Hurts (305-2), Goff (356-2), Allen (365-3), and Stroud (470-5), and at $5.8k, this feels like a great spot for Purdy. 🔴The Bucs have been stout on the ground, allowing only D’Andre Swift to surpass 70 rushing yards, and haven’t given up a rushing TD all year. While CMC can always hit, it feels very unlikely he’ll pay off his $9.3k salary. 🔴The Bucs have been gashed by WRs this season – 9-150 to Jefferson, 6-104 for DJ Moore, 9-131 for AJ Brown, 12-124 to ARSB, 6-114 to Tank Dell, 6-153 to Noah Brown and 10-130 to Dalton Schultz. Fire up all the 49ers pass catchers. JETS ✈️ at BILLS 🦬 ✈️On the ground, Breece Hall has some initial interest, as he’s averaged 20 opportunities in the past 5 games and I have no confidence in the Jet’s passing game. The Jets beat the Bills in Week 1 by running the ball and playing strong defense, and I suspect Robert Salah will attempt to implement the same game plan this week. 🦬Josh Allen’s worst week of the year came in Week 1 against this same NYJ team. The Jets have yet to allow a 300-yard passer or any QB to account for more than 2 TDs, despite facing Allen, Dak, Mahomes, Herbert, and Jalen Hurts already this year. Josh Allen will be on a short week (was at DEN for MNF yesterday) so not a spot catching my eye initially, especially at $8.2k. 🦬With double-digit targets in 60% of his games this season, Stefon Diggs is in play every week. He put up a 13-102-1 against this same Jets team earlier this season and I suspect he’ll be peppered with targets this week coming off his worst output of the season on MNF. SEAHAWKS 🟢at RAMS 🐏 🏈Like Trevor Lawrence, Stafford has yet to exceed 21 DK points all season and a price tag in the $6k range for both is just not appealing. With two games of at least 26 DK points and $500 cheaper, Geno Smith is more interesting, although this same Rams team held him to his season-low 112 passing yards in Week 1. Probably not a spot I’ll get to either QB. 🏈On the ground, it’s also not a spot that jumps out for either RB. 🐏At WR, this feels like a game that’s going to go overlooked by the field, but SEA has allowed several strong games to WRs this year, including two 100+ yard performances to Nacua and Atwell when these teams met earlier this season. 🐏The Seahawks have been better recently, but Cooper Kupp’s price is down to the cheapest we’ve seen it all year and this feels like a spot where he may go under-owned for his potential upside. All NFL Edge games will be available on the site by Thursday! -@wgabelman

Name the Player you will be most thankful for when You Win all the Money on Thanksgiving 🦃 🔁 Retweet your Answer 👇 Reply w/ DK Name ❤️ Like the post *** No salary cap restriction

9 Players under 5% owned for Week 1:

OWS FAM Week 6 Binks!💰 $1,000,000 $100k $50k $40k $30k $20k $10k $5k This week the OWS Fam used @JMToWin's Falcons Stack to take home all the money! Milly Maker👀winner 'ddry' credits OWS' game analysis for their big day!💰 OWS Member 'FireDawgs' wins the Spy! OWS member 'TDSTROMM' wins the Red Zone!

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 6:

WEEK 11 :: ANGLES By: @JMToWin 5 Overlooked Spots 1. The Texans are favored by five points against an Arizona team that has allowed five opponents to score 27+ points. 2. The concentrated Jags (23.5) taking on a Tennessee defense that has allowed the seventh most yards per game to wide receivers. 3. The pass-happy Commanders (23.25) taking on a Giants defense that has allowed the sixth most yards per game to wide receivers. 4. The Seahawks and Rams are playing one another in a game that has an outside shot at developing into an overlooked shootout. 5. The Chargers and Packers have a sneaky opportunity for price-considered upside from the Packers' passing attack if the Chargers' offense does their job. With the five spots mentioned above, that doesn't even include the top offenses... 5⃣TOP OFFENSES >Miami (30) vs Raiders >Detroit (28.25) vs Bears >San Francisco (26.5) vs Bucs >Houston (26.5) vs Cardinals >Dallas (26.5) @ Panthers 4⃣Favored by 9+ >Miami >Detroit >San Francisco >Dallas Remember, It's possible for good, aggressive offenses to produce at a tourney-winning level without "game environment" cooperating. FINAL THOUGHTS - Not only do we have the obvious spots, but we have a lot of other spots as well. - DraftKings is finally adjusting running back pricing (shoutout to FanDuel for doing this much earlier), and there is plenty of salary flexibility across all positions, creating what should be a wide-open slate! --- Find more of @JMToWin all around the site throughout the weekend.

🤟-Thankful for our Subs 🏈-Thankful for Football 📈-Thankful for DFS So We've Made this For You... 🦃 Thanksgiving Special Contest 🦃 Prizes :: 🥇-Free Lifetime Membership 👀 🥈-100 Edge Points 🥉-50 EPs 4⃣-25 EPs 5⃣-20 EPs 6⃣-15 EPs 7⃣-10 EPs See the Rules in the thread ⬇️

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 5:

NFL DFS WEEK 15! 🏈A first look at the upcoming 10-game slate! PACKERS 🧀 at BUCCANEERS 🏴‍☠️ 🧀Jordan Love will likely make my QB pool this week. QBs vs Tampa’s pass funnel - Stroud: 470 - 5 - Purdy: 333-3 - Cousins: 344-2 - Goff: 353-3 - Allen: 324-2 - Ridder: 347-2 🧀 Through the air, the offense continues to condense for the Packers with both Watson and Wicks dealing with injuries. I know it’s early but if both miss, I will consider a rule of one of Reed, Doubs, or Kraft on every lineup. 🏴‍☠️On the ground, Rashaad White has one of the most bankable usage roles in the league, averaging 20 opportunities a game. In the past 5 games, the Packers have allowed 101-2 to Barkley, 123-1 to Pacheco, 144-1 to Gibbs/Montgomery, 70-0 to Ekeler, and 206-2 to Najee/Warren. FALCONS 🔴 at PANTHERS 🐈‍⬛ 🔴The Falcons prefer to run the ball, but as we saw last week, Desmond Ridder is viable against pass funnel defenses, however, that’s not the case this week. 🔴On paper, the Panthers present an easy matchup on the ground for Bijan Robinson in a game the Falcons have to win to keep pace at the top of the division. 🔴Drake London is at the most expensive he’s been all year and I don’t expect the Falcons to focus their attack through the air. 🐈‍⬛On the other side of the ball, it’s hard to ignore the usage Chuba Hubbard has seen, with opportunity counts of 25, 25, and 19 in the past 3 weeks. Initially, he’s intriguing as a mid-priced back. 🐈‍⬛ Through the air, Jonathan Mingo has averaged 7 targets a game since the Panther's bye and is only $3,900. BEARS 🐻 at BROWNS 🟠 🐻The Browns are a tough matchup through the air, but DJ Moore has averaged over 10 targets a game the past month with Justin Fields back under center. 🟠On the other side of the ball, David Njoku continues to be a target monster and is once again intriguing despite seeing his price rise as he has as high a ceiling as any $4k WR. 🟠Not a ton of initial interest in either QB, however Flacco is intriguing simply because he’s cheap and has 44 and 45 pass attempts in his two starts this year. 🟠The Bears don’t present an intimidating matchup on the ground and if Jerome Ford ends up missing the game with his wrist injury, Kareem Hunt would become very interesting at $4,900. JETS ✈️at DOLPHINS 🐬 ✈️On the ground, it’s hard to ignore Breece Hall’s usage, especially in the passing game. In the past 4 games, he has 32 targets to go along with 40 rush attempts. ✈️ Through the air, it’s Garrett Wilson who catches my eye, not Tyreek or Waddle. Averaging over 10 targets a game on the year, he feels like 2021 Keenan Allen, except he’s only $5,900. 🐬The Jets have allowed 5 backs to surpass 100 total yards against them, however, it has taken a ton of volume to do so (Pollard - 109 yards on 32 touches, Barkley - 128 yards on 38 touches, Pacheco - 158 yards on 23 touches, Jacobs - 127 yards on 29 touches, and James Cook - 102 yards on 20 touches). All that to say it’s hard to get excited about Mostert or Achane splitting the backfield with both being over $7k. 🐬The Jets are a premier DST and Tua hasn’t put up 4x his current salary since week 1. Tough to get there this week on a short week for the Dolphins. GIANTS 🤌 at SAINTS ⚜️ 🏈Both defenses are above average and not a spot catching my eye as it relates to the QB position. 🤌On the ground, Barkley is averaging 22 opportunities a game and while the Saints present a tough matchup, he’s intriguing simply based on his usage. ⚜️ Through the air, Chris Olave has to be considered against this NYG secondary, however, his price is back up above $7k, just $100 below his season high. As you can see from the write-up, not a game environment catching my eye on this slate. TEXANS 🐂 at TITANS ⚔️ 🐂It could be an interesting spot for Stroud if he clears concussion protocol as the Titans have allowed 300+ passing games to Carr, Herbert, and Minshew this season. 🐂I’ll be interested to monitor Nico Collins’ status as if he were to miss, all the Texans pass catchers would be $5k or less. It would also be an intriguing spot to consider Devin Singletary. ⚔️It’s after Thanksgiving so it’s traditionally time for Henry. He’s averaging 20+ opportunities the past three games and coming off a win against MIA, TEN is still in the playoff hunt. At $6,900, Henry is interesting. CHIEFS 🏹 at PATRIOTS 🇺🇸 🏈The ground game for both teams is one to keep an eye on as the week progresses as both Isiah Pacheco and Rhamondre Stevenson missed last week. 🏹The Chiefs offense has generally been middle of the pack this year and it’s translated to Mahomes only having one game all season above 26 DK. Hard to get to him at $7,800 this week at NE. 🏹After spending the first five weeks of the season in the $3k range, Rashee Rice finds himself priced at $6,100 this week. NE and Bill Belichick are famous for taking away a team’s best weapon, in this case, Travis Kelce, which would make Rice interesting even at his elevated price. 49ERS 🔴at CARDINALS 🐦 🔴Since the bye, the 49ers offense has been absolutely humming, averaging 32 points per game. Purdy has 23.8 or more DK points in 5 of his past 6 and the Cardinals have been very friendly to opposing offenses. Feels like a spot I’d once again consider one 49er on every roster. 🔴CMC is in play every week and the Cardinals have been gashed on the ground with 7 RBs exceeding 100 total yards this season. 🔴As mentioned above all of the key pieces for SF are in play this week - CMC/Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle. 🐦The 49ers have given up big games to WRs and I think it’s an interesting spot for Hollywood Brown and OWS favorite, Greg Dortch. COMMANDERS ⛑️ at RAMS 🐏 ⛑️Sam Howell is interesting as the Rams have allowed multiple 300-yard passers this season as well as strong rushing performances to every mobile quarterback they’ve faced - 56-1 on the ground to Anthony Richardson, 72-1 on the ground to Jalen Hurts, 47 yards rushing to Josh Dobbs, and 70 yards on the ground to Lamar Jackson. They also surrendered rushing TDs to Purdy, Pickett, and Kyler Murray. My initial thought was this would be a target for game stacks. 🐏Stafford is not a QB I personally play often, but he’s definitely in strong consideration this week at home against the porous Commanders' defense. The Rams offense has looked great since their week 10 bye, averaging over 30 points during that stretch. 🐏On the ground, Kyren Williams is in a great spot and is averaging over 25 opportunities a game since returning from injury. Initially, he feels like a core play for the upcoming week. 🐏The Commanders have also been horrendous against elite WRs and Nacua and Kupp are both firmly in play. 🏈Both TEs (Logan Thomas and Tyler Higbee) are also interesting value plays. COWBOYS 🤠 at BILLS 🦬 🏈Probably the most exciting game of the weekend from a viewer's standpoint. Both QBs are in the $8k tier and initially not a spot to I’m drawn to with how strong both defenses are. 🤠Tony Pollard is interesting as he continues to be heavily involved averaging 20 opportunities a game. At $6,700 in an above-average matchup, he feels like a strong value. 🤠 Through the air, CeeDee Lamb has seen his price rise all the way to $9,200. I have to say, my first reaction to this was utter disbelief, however, he does have 4 games above 30 DK points this season, which only trails Tyreek Hill (6 occurrences) on this slate. 🦬The biggest takeaway from the firing of Ken Dorsey has been the increased role for James Cook in the offense. While Dallas presents a tough matchup on the ground, he’s intriguing based on his increased role. 🦬DK Metcalf has been the only WR to surpass 100 yards, which makes getting to Stefon Diggs at $8,400 a tough ask this week. 🏈Initially, my favorite pass catchers in this game are the TEs. --- FAVORITE DST'S ⛓️ 🏈My favorite DST upon first pass were SF, MIA, KC, NO, LAR, NYG, and NE. --- As a reminder, full NFL EDGE writeups will be live on the site on Thursday! - @wgabelman (Aka Statatl)

NFL DFS WEEK 17! 🏈A first look at the upcoming 13-game slate! DOLPHINS 🐬 at RAVENS 🐦‍⬛ 🐦‍⬛ Not a scary matchup for Lamar as both elite mobile QBs that faced the Fins this year both smashed 🐦‍⬛ The Ravens D presents a tough matchup both on the ground and through the air, but I wouldn’t completely shy away from Mostert here. 🐬 Tyreek can hit in any matchup and if Waddle is out, 10 targets feels like it could be his floor. PATRIOTS 🔴 at BILLS 🔵 🔵 Stefon Diggs has struggled lately but has historically had success against Bill Belichick. 🔴 Demario Douglas has averaged over 7 targets a game since week 6, and is interesting at $4,300. FALCONS ⬛️ at BEARS 🐻 🐻 I's hard to get excited about Fields at $7,300 against a Falcons team fighting for their playoff lives. ⬛️ The matchup for Bijan is also much tougher than it appears. TITANS 🛡️ at TEXANS 🐂 🐂 CJ Stroud would be interesting if he were to return with the Texans tied for both the division lead and the final playoff spot. If Stroud plays, Nico Collins and Noah Brown are intriguing RAIDERS 🏴‍☠️ at COLTS 🐴 🏴‍☠️ The matchup sets up as a juicy one, especially if Jacobs is back to full health. 🐴 Jonathan Taylor saw 18 touches last week with Zack Moss sidelined and would be in store for another heavy workload if Moss were to miss again. PANTHERS 😼 at JAGUARS 🐈 😼 If you want to be bold this week, Bryce Young is your man. Young is still priced below $5k despite coming off the best game of his career. 😼 He pairs easily with Adam Thielen, and a player block with these two and Hubbard only costs $16,600. RAMS 🐏 at GIANTS ⬜️ 🐏 An above average spot for Stafford and the entire Rams offense. 🐏 Kyren Williams continues to have arguably the best RB role in the league averaging over 26 opportunities a game since returning from injury last month. 🐏 Kupp and Nacua are both strong options this week. Might be a spot for a min 1 Ram on every roster this week. CARDINALS 🐦 at EAGLES 🦅 🦅 The Cardinals present a fantasy friendly matchup for Hurts. 🦅 The best matchup however is reserved for D’Andre Swift. I'm not sure it's a "lock button" spot, but it's definitely a play for the RB core this week. 🦅 AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are both also in play, as is Trey McBride as a potential run back / mini correlation partner. 🐦 McBride has averaged 9 targets a game since taking over the starting role after Zach Ertz’s injury in week 7. SAINTS ⚜️ at BUCCANEERS 🦜 ⚜️ Tampa’s pass funnel should be a solid spot for both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed who are both coming off strong performances last week. 🦜 Cade Otton is interesting as a potential salary saver at the TE position down at $3,100. NINERS ⛏️ at COMMANDERS 🟡 ⛏️ The best on paper spot of the slate, all of Purdy, CMC, Aiyuk, Kittle and Deebo Samuel are strongly in play this week against arguably the worst defense in the league. Feels like a min of one 49er on every roster week. STEELERS 🚧 at SEAHAWKS 🟢 🚧 Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren project to see 30-35 (or more) combined opportunities again this week and are both interesting at their price tags. 🟢 Tyler Lockett is probably the most interesting coming off an 11-target game at only $5,700. BENGALS 🐅 at CHIEFS 🔥 🔥 This is an above average spot for Mahomes. Hard to get excited about Mahomes at $7,500 as he only has one game above 26 points all season. 🔥 If Pacheco is unable to go, CEH is very much in play at $5,300. CHARGERS ⚡️ at BRONCOS 🐎 ⚡️ The Broncos present the best on paper matchup against the TE position and Gerald Everett is coming off three straight games with 8 or more targets. If Keenan Allen were to miss for a third straight week, Everett would be a very strong price considered play at $3,500. 🌪️DST: Upon first pass, my favorite DST options are SF, BUF, LAR, BAL and CIN Full edge write ups will be available on the site beginning Thursday. I hope to see you and your OWS avatar atop a leaderboard come Sunday night! -@wgabelman

OWS Fam, Back by popular demand... @JMToWin's Week 7 DFS Angles!

NFL DFS: WEEK 14 A first look at the 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL JETS (19.75) ✈️AT DOLPHINS (26.25)🐬 🐬Tua has played well since returning from concussion (his 4th), but no QB has thrown for 275 or more than 2 TDs against the Jets. 🐬The Jets have also been a tougher matchup to opposing RBs, however, De’Von Achane has 5 or more receptions in over half his healthy games this season, to go along with an average of 12 carries a game. 🐬Achane has surpassed 20 DK points in 7 of his 11 healthy games this season but is more of a floor play than a ceiling play at $8,200. 🐬4 RBs have eclipsed 20 DK points against the Dolphins (28 for James Cook, 25 for Zach Charbonnet, 21 for Josh Jacobs, and 21 for Ray Davis), but no opposing RB has topped 92 yards. ✈️Breece Hall has 5 games this season with over 19 DK points, but in each of them, he saw 6 or more targets, which is something that’s happened only once in his past 6 games. 🐬Through the air, Jonnu Smith has seen his price rise to $5,300, but has 3 straight games of 22 or more DK points, and 4 in his last 7 since the Dolphins bye. 🐬Tough matchups here almost across the board for both teams and not a game that stands out at any individual position outside of Jonnu. FALCONS (20.25) 🪶 AT VIKINGS (25.25)🪓 🏈While it likely won’t stand out to the field, this strikes me as an intriguing game environment. 🪓The Vikings have faced many strong offenses but have only allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to exceed 100 yards rushing against them; despite facing Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, James Conner, D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Tyrone Tracy, David Montgomery, and Jordan Mason already this season. 🪓While opposing RBs have mostly struggled, a few opposing QBs have done better than the matchup suggests. Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, and Caleb Williams all threw for 300+ yards, and both Matt Stafford and Jordan Love had 4 passing touchdowns against the Vikings. 🪶Kirk Cousins has multiple games of 300+ yards and multiple games of 4 passing TDs. 🪶In the 5 games this season Cousins has attempted more than 30 passes, Drake London is averaging 12.5 targets per game. If the game sees elevated passing volume from Cousins, it’s clear who the likeliest benefactor is likely to be. 🪓For the Vikings, the matchup is interesting for Justin Jefferson, and at $7,800, is at his cheapest price of the year. 🪶The Falcons have allowed the opposing primary pass-catcher to exceed 14 DK points in every game this season, with Courtland Sutton (7-78-0 on 8 targets) to be the worst of the bunch (This excludes the DAL game where Dak Prescott was injured mid-game). 🪓Jefferson only has 1 TD since week 5 but has still managed to surpass 20 DK points in half his games this season. SAINTS (22.75) 🟡AT GIANTS (17.75)🔵 🔵In his only start this season, Drew Lock attempted 32 passes and at $4,700 would be an interesting option this week if he gets the nod to start again this week. 🟡10 different starting QBs have faced the Saints this season, and 7 of them attempted more than 30 pass attempts, with the worst passing yardage of the group coming from Dak Prescott, who threw for 293 yards. 🏈The ground games are also interesting this week for both Alvin Kamara and Tyrone Tracy. The Saints have allowed 7 different RBs to surpass 20 DK points this season, while the Giants have allowed 5 RBs (Dowdle, Hubbard, Irving, Najee, and Saquon) to surpass 120 yards in just their last 6 games. 🟡With Taysom Hill put on IR on Monday, and the Saints only two games back, I would expect Kamara to once again see 20+ opportunities, which has been the case in 5 of the past 6 weeks. 🔵The Giants also placed TE Theo Johnson on IR, potentially leading to more targets being filtered to Malik Nabers, who is already averaging a ridiculous 11.5 targets a game this season. At $6,900, Nabers also stands out from this game. PANTHERS (17) 🐈‍⬛AT EAGLES (29)🦅 🦅The Panthers have allowed an opposing RB to score 20 or more DK points on 9 different occasions this season and now face Saquon Barkley who is averaging 24 opportunities a game and 26 DK points. Barkley is probably the best on paper play of the slate. 🦅Through the air, Grant Calcaterra is interesting at $3,500 (especially if DeVonta Smith is inactive again) as Dallas Goedert is likely to miss a few weeks. 🐈‍⬛The Panthers have allowed 10 TEs to put up at least 40 yards receiving against them this season through 12 games. 🐈‍⬛Adam Thielen is my initial favorite piece as the Panthers are likely to be facing a trailing game script and Thielen is coming off an 8 catch game. BROWNS (18.5) 🟤AT STEELERS (25)🟨 🏈These teams just met in week 12, a 24-19 victory in the snow for the Browns. Russell Wilson is coming off the best game of his career, but the Browns have yet to allow a QB to pass for 300 yards yet this season, despite facing the likes of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert. 🟤The Browns have presented a tough matchup for opposing backs as no opposing RB has rushed for more than 85 yards and Devin Singletary’s 108 total yards (on 20 touches) in week 3 is still the best to date, despite facing Henry, Saquon, Dobbins, and Kamara. 🟨Initially, the most interesting piece on the Steelers offense is George Pickens. 🟤The ground game doesn’t stand out for Nick Chubb here either as only Tyrone Tracy Jr surpassed 90 yards rushing against Pittsburgh, despite them also facing several strong backfields in Bijan, Henry, Dobbins, JT, and Breece Hall. 🟤Jameis Winston has attempted 40+ passes in every game he’s started this year outside of the snow game against the Steelers which should lead to ample opportunities for the Cleveland pass catchers, specifically Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku, especially if Cedric Tillman is inactive once again. 🟤It’s usually feast or famine with Jameis, and while he has games of 395-2 and 497-4 in two of his past 4 games, he also has two games with 3 INTs during that time span, making the Steelers DST interesting if Winston gains popularity due to his MNF performance. Winston is also averaging 3 sacks a game in his 5 starts this season. RAIDERS (19.5) ☠️AT BUCCANEERS (26.5)🏴‍☠️ ☠️This sets up as an interesting spot for second year signal-caller Aidan O’Connell, who is coming off the best game of his young career (340 yards and 2 TDs). ☠️Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Bryce Young all accounted for 300 or more total yards against Tampa Bay this season, and AOC is priced at only $4,800. 🏴‍☠️The Bucs have faced several strong TEs this season and have given up some monster games – 27 DK points to Travis Kelce, 25 DK points to Kyle Pitts, 20 DK points to Mark Andrews, while also allowing 7-62 to Dallas Goedert and 3-57-1 to George Kittle (on 4 targets). ☠️Brock Bowers has seen 40 targets the past 3 weeks and stands out here. 🏴‍☠️On the other side of the ball, Bucky Irving has seen his price skyrocket to $6,600 but is coming off back-to-back games of 18 and 28 touches with 27+ DK points in both affairs. 🏴‍☠️The Raiders have allowed 20+ point games to De’Von Achane, Chase Brown, Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard and J.K. Dobbins already this year, while Kyren Williams (19.6) fell just short. Irving is also initially interesting from this game. 🏴‍☠️This game also stands out for TB’s TE Cade Otton, as Otton is averaging over 8 targets a game since Chris Godwin’s injury in week 7 and the Vikings have allowed games of 10-90-1 to Kelce, 5-100-2 to Gesicki, and 6-101-2 to Jonnu Smith in their last 5 games played. JAGUARS (18) 😼AT TITANS (21.5)⚔️ 😼Another game where a pay down ($5k or less) QB stands out as intriguing. Half the QBs that have faced the Jags have either thrown for 330 or more yards or thrown for 4 or more TDs, a list that includes Tua, Stroud, Flacco, Goff, Josh Allen, and Caleb Williams. ⚔️At $5k, and with games of 275 or more yards in two of his past 3 starts, Will Levis will likely make my initial player pool. ⚔️Since the DeAndre Hopkins trade, Calvin Ridley is averaging over 8.5 targets a game and faces a team that has allowed 7 WRs to exceed 100 receiving yards this season. ⚔️Tony Pollard is also interesting as Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, and the combo of Montgomery/Gibbs (218-3) all exceeded 100 yards against the Jags the past 5 games, with 3 of them accounting for multiple TDs. 😼It looks like Mac Jones will likely be under center again, tempering any interest I’d have in Jaguars pieces, although Brian Thomas Jr would be my preferred option if rostering a Jag. SEAHAWKS (20.75) 🟢AT CARDINALS (23.75)🐦 🐦Kyler Murray has played well this season and led the Cards to the division lead, but Seattle hasn’t allowed a QB to post a 25-point score yet this season. 🟢Arizona is also a middling matchup for Geno Smith, and while he’s among the league leaders in pass attempts, he only has one game above 18 fantasy points since week 6. 🟢The ground matchup doesn’t stand out here either, as the only backfield to score a TD or amass 100 total yards since week 5 against Arizona was the Dolphins. At $6,800, there feels like much better spots on this slate to attack then Kenneth Walker on the road. 🐦On the other side of the ball, Seattle limited the combination of Trey Benson and James Conner to just 67 total yards on 16 touches when these teams met back in week 12. 🐦However, the matchup is intriguing for Trey McBride who has seen 27 targets the past few weeks, while the Seahawks have given up monster games to TEs this season, including 20+ DK point outings to Hunter Henry, George Kittle, and Trey McBride (in week 12). 🟢On the other side of the ball, the matchup is middling for DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but no pass catcher (WR or TE) has gone for 20 DK points against Arizona since week 5 (which includes games against Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, and this same Seattle offense. 🐦My initial thoughts have this as a game I will probably mostly avoid outside of McBride. BILLS (26.75) 🦬AT RAMS (22.25)🐑 🦬The matchup here is above average for Josh Allen, but the Rams haven’t allowed any 30-point scores, despite facing Hurts, Tua, Geno, Love, Purdy, and Kyler already this season. At $8k, it feels like there are better spots as Allen has only topped 25 points (28.4) once since week 3. 🦬The best price considered matchup for Buffalo is probably Khalil Shakir as the Rams have allowed monster games to opposing possession WRs, including 7-180-2 to JSN, 11-175-3 to Jauan Jennings, and 4-130-2 to Marvin Harrison Jr, as well as 5-121- to Jameson Williams, 6-109-1 to A.J. Brown, and 8-115 to Justin Jefferson. 🐑Through the air, the matchup is less appealing for Nacua and Kupp, as the NY Jets are the only team to have a pass catcher (WR or TE) eclipse 82 yards against Buffalo. BEARS (20) 🐻AT 49ERS (24)⛏️ ⛏️CMC and Jordan Mason are both out for SF, leaving Isaac Guerendo in line to lead the Niners backfield. In the two games where he saw more than 5 touches, Guerendo produced games of 99 yards on 10 touches and 102 yards (and a TD) on 17 touches. 🐻The past five weeks, the Bears have surrendered 119 yards to James Conner, 129 yards to Aaron Jones, 134 yards to Josh Jacobs, 77 yards to Rhamondre Stevenson and 228 to the combination of Montgomery/Gibbs. ⛏️The 49ers have produced strong RB scores almost every week this season and at $5,400, Guerendo feels like lock-button play this week. 🐻For Chicago, Caleb Williams has looked better as a of late, and is interesting at $5,600 as the mobile QBs that have faced the Niners all produced decent games on the ground against SF – Kyler 7-83-1, Mahomes 5-39-1, and Allen 3-18-2 (includes receiving TD). None of his pass catchers stand out however on my first look. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: PHI, PIT, MIN, AZ and TEN Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard in week 14. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

COLTS VS RAMS Steichen’s offense is rolling. McVay’s offense is loaded. This one’s got firework potential.🔥 GAME OVERVIEW ▫️Daniel Jones is playing the best ball of his career, Jonathan Taylor leads the league in rushing. ▫️Rookie TE Tyler Warren leads the team in targets but hasn’t hit a ceiling yet. ▫️Colts defense has improved but gets its toughest test to date. ▫️Davante Adams’ status (DNP Wed/Thu) is key for LA. ▫️Rookie RB Blake Corum carving out a larger role behind Kyren Williams. HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ▫️Shane Steichen’s decision to ride Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson looks vindicated — offense humming. ▫️Colts lead the league in YPP (6.6), top-3 in points scored — only DET & BAL match their firepower. ▫️Jonathan Taylor locked into 23–28 touches unless game script flips hard. ▫️Pittman + Warren primary receiving options, with Adonai Mitchell expected to step into Alec Pierce’s absence. ▫️Colts rank bottom-10 in PROE + play at 5th-slowest pace. Efficiency is carrying them. ▫️Key wrinkle: Philly torched LAR with up-tempo in Week 3. Steichen (former Eagles OC) may have inside track to replicate. HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ▫️Offensive core concentrated: Puka Nacua + Davante Adams + Kyren Williams = 77% of usage. ▫️Rams came out swinging vs PHI, then collapsed late — still proved they can dominate a top team. ▫️Stafford is pushing it deep more than ever since 2021, boosted by Adams’ arrival. ▫️ If Adams plays, defenses face a bind: Zone = Nacua eats. Man = Adams isolated. ▫️Colts defense mixes coverages, but Stafford + McVay motion makes disguises tough. ▫️Ground game is #1 in NFL (5.62 adj line yards). Colts rank 25th vs run. Expect Williams heavy early, with Corum sprinkled in. ▫️Expect Nacua + Williams volume early, Adams as the matchup-breaker, Corum mixing in later. Every matchup. Every edge. Only at OWS 👇 Don't miss out on a $1 DFS Pass only for Week 4! (Link in Bio)

DFS + CHESS In Chess, we position pieces with strategic intent and leverage their strengths to gain an advantage. In DFS we do the same. Here's 6 Chess pieces Papy will be using in Week 3: Pawn RB Cam Akers ($4,700) Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce were DNPs this week, leaving Cam Akers to be the lead back for a potent offense, in a good game environment. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that he is as close to a “must play” as we see in DFS. I suspect he will be around 50% owned, maybe higher, but sometimes you must eat the chalk. It’s tough find reasons to avoid Akers other than an ownership fade, which you can do in large tournaments, but in smaller field stuff it’s hard to stay off Akers as a free square. Knight RB Zach Charbonnet ($6,000) Charbonnet played 96% of the snaps last week. I shouldn’t have to say anything other than that to make you want to play him. With Kenneth Walker looking like he will miss another week, there is no reason to think Charbonnet won’t dominate the backfield in Week 3. Very few RBs get over 95% of their team’s snaps. Last week versus the Patriots, Charbonnet had 19 opportunities (five of which were targets) that he turned into 17.9 DK points. This week he’s at home against a much weaker (21st in DVOA) Dolphins run defense that just got crushed by James Cook for three TDs. With Skylar “Days of our Lives” Thompson back in the saddle for the Dolphins, there is a strong probability that Seattle controls this game. If Charbonnet sees 95% of the snaps, there is a good chance he gets 20+ carries and 3-5 targets. I’ll take that at $6,000. Bishop WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200) Play your 49er. That seems to be the thinking of the week. Jordan Mason is still underpriced and is projected to be the chalkiest play of the week at around 50%. Brandon Aiyuk was already underpriced for Deebo sitting and is now all but guaranteed to be the focus of the passing game with George Kittle also being ruled out. Aiyuk and Mason are obvious plays, but it’s worth considering the idea that without Deebo or Kittle, the 49ers offense might struggle. Kittle is a big part of the pass game. He’s no small loss, and without him or Deebo to take pressure off Aiyuk, there is a chance their passing game sputters. I’m going to play Aiyuk, because it feels foolish not to play him, but I’m going to be willing to play lineups where I fade both him and Mason in hopes that the banged-up 49ers offense is ineffective. Rook WR DeVonta Smith ($6,900) DeVonta Smith, another injury-oriented player, has been a true WR1 in games without A.J. Brown throughout his career, and Brown is set to miss this week. Last week, he saw 10 targets which he turned into a 7/76/1 line. This week, he should be in a better game environment against a Saints team that has been putting up points in bunches. The Saints have been respectable (11th in DVOA) against the pass, but they’ve been winning early in both their games which put their opponents into predictable situations. CB Marshon Lattimore is practicing in a limited fashion and FS Tyrann Mathieu is also limited. Smith makes an obvious stacking partner with Jalen Hurts ($7,300) or as a bring back with Saints stacks. Chris Olave ($6,300) is also desirable and makes sense paired with Smith in a variety of stacks. Smith also makes sense as a one-off way to gain exposure to this game, while going a different direction and stacking elsewhere. There isn’t a bad way to play Smith. Queen WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,400) There are a lot of different ways to attack DET/ARI. Every primary offensive contributor on both sides of the ball is in play, but it’s interesting that Harrison is only projected for 4% ownership. Didn’t we all just overlook him last week? Is it going to happen again? I think it might. Why? He’s priced in a way that makes it feel uncomfortable to pay for him. There are a lot of good WRs priced lower, and when you look up at Harrison who has at least a $500 dollar premium on guys who are all much more established producers at the NFL level, it just feels wrong. That uncertainty might be the only reason we see Harrison being this overlooked two weeks in a row. Last week’s game was a blowout, which limited Harrison’s usage in the second half. He exploded in the 1st quarter, which shows you what he’s capable of in a full game given the right conditions. He’s playing in the highest total game of the week, against an offense that should be able to fight back. The Lions also look like a pass funnel. They’ve stuffed the run (3rd in DVOA), while getting hurt (30th in yards allowed per pass) through the air. Get uncomfortable. Play Harrison. King WR CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) The Cowboys were a points machine at home last season and ran into the buzz saw that is the Saints last week. Lamb put up a 4/90/1 line, and that was ok, but it was disappointing at his price tag. The main issue with Lamb is that he is priced more appropriately than his peers. His high price tag has his ownership projected below 10%, and any time you can get Lamb at home, under 10% owned, he should be on your radar. Lamb has 17 targets though two games, and while that’s certainly involvement, he hasn’t had a monster 15-20 target game. The Ravens just got whacked by Davonte Adams for a 9/110/1 line. This week should be Lamb’s turn to drop a strong stat line against the Ravens. If paying up to be different, go with Lamb. To read @Papy324's end game, you can find Papy's Pieces in The Scroll

DFS Chalk :: Week 2 Current projection for 20%+ Ownership ▫️ JORDAN MASON (52%) ▫️ BREECE HALL (45%) ▫️ COOPER KUPP (32%) ▫️ DEEBO SAMUEL (24%) ▫️ CEEDEE LAMB (23%) ▫️ KYREN WILLIAMS (22%) Who do you think will fall short this week?

Chalk draws the crowd. Leverage wins the money. Top plays under 10% 👇 RUNNING BACKS ▫️JONATHAN TAYLOR (9%) ▫️JOSH JACOBS (6%) ▫️JAMES COOK (6%) WIDE RECEIVERS ▫️DAVANTE ADAMS (7%) ▫️JUSTIN JEFFERSON (7%) ▫️MICHAEL PITTMAN (8%) TIGHT ENDS (Under 5%) ▫️BROCK BOWERS (5%) ▫️THEO JOHNSON (5%) ▫️DALTON KINCAID (4%)

NFL DFS: WEEK 8 A first look at the giant 13-game main slate through the lens of StatATL RAVENS (26.5) 🐦‍⬛AT BROWNS (18) 🟤 🟤I typically start by looking at the ground game, but the first thing I looked at was how much Jameis Winston (and Dorian Thompson-Robinson) were as the Ravens have given up big games to almost every QB they’ve faced. 🐦‍⬛Excluding the game against the Bills, the other 6 QBs *have averaged* 330 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns against this Ravens secondary. 🟤Even if you throw out Burrow’s 392-5 game, it’s still an average of 317-2. Feels like I’m going to lose money on the Browns offense this week. 🐦‍⬛Through the air, Rashod Bateman and both Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews will be massively appealing if Zay Flowers is unable play through his ankle injury. 🟤For Cleveland, both David Njoku and Cedric Tillman thrived without Amari Cooper last game and offer some salary relief. TITANS (17.25)⚔️ AT LIONS (28.25) 🦁 🦁I likely will not have much interest in the Lions split backfield as TEN has been a tough matchup on the ground with Breece Hall’s 62 yards rushing still the best to date. ⚔️On the other side of the ball, Pollard is just too expensive (despite his strong role) in this matchup. 🦁Jameson Williams should miss this game with a suspension, opening up additional opportunities for both Kalif Raymond and TE Sam LaPorta. 🦁However, Detroit should have its way here, which may limit the pass volume as the Lions may remain content to just run the ball and avoid mistakes. COLTS (20) 🐴AT TEXANS (25.5) 🐂 🐂Joe Mixon accumulated 178 yards and a TD when these teams met back in week one and is of initial interest as multiple other RBs (Jacobs and Bigsby) have also surpassed 100 yards on the ground against this Colts’ defense. 🐴On the other side of the ball, Jonathan Taylor (if active) doesn’t initially stand out, but the Texans D isn’t as imposing as it seems on paper as Aaron Jones, Tank Bigsby, James Cook and Josh Jacobs all accounted for 90+ yards. 🐂While the matchup is good for Mixon, this game stands out for Stroud and his pass catchers, specifically Diggs, Dell and TE Dalton Schultz. 🐴As much as I like Josh Downs, he’s yet to exceed 6 fantasy points with Anthony Richardson at QB, so my initial interest is limited to the Houston side of the ball. PACKERS (26.75) 🧀AT JAGUARS (22.75) 😼 🧀Not as good a spot for Josh Jacobs as it would appear on paper as he’s only playing 65% of the snaps, coupled with the fact that just D’Andre Swift (91 yards) has rushed for over 64 yards against the Jags. 😼The Jags backfield has a much friendlier matchup on paper, as the Packers have already allowed Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams and Joe Mixon to each rush for over 100 yards and Aaron Jones amassed 139 total yards. 😼If Etienne were to miss or be limited, I’d have a ton of interest in Tank Bigsby. 🧀My main interest in this game is through the air with Jordan Love and his pass catchers. The Jags have been torched multiple times already this season, allowing 280 or more yards to every QB they’ve faced this season outside of Deshaun Watson. 😼On the other side of the ball, both Brian Thomas Jr and Evan Engram are intriguing options. CARDINALS (21.75) 🐦AT DOLPHINS (24.75)🐬 🐦James Conner stands out as he’s seen 19 or more touches in 5 games already this season and now gets a Dolphins team that’s allowed some strong RB scores against (total yards - TDs) of 95-3 to James Cook, 107-2 to Zach Charbonnet, 108-1 to Tony Pollard, 148-1 to Rhamondre/Gibson and 132-1 to Etienne/Bigsby. 🐬If Tua Tagovailoa is able to return, the passing game for the Dolphins is interesting as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both underpriced. 🐦Through the air for Arizona, Trey McBride would be the only pass catcher I’d consider. JETS (24.25) ✈️AT PATRIOTS (17.25) 🟦 ✈️While Breece Hall only went for 83 and a TD when these teams met in week 3, the Patriots have been gashed by RBs the past four weeks, allowing 118-2 to Tank Bigsby, 132-2 to Joe Mixon, 160-1 to Jordan Mason and 184-0 to the combination of Mostert/Wright. ✈️I’ll definitely have interest in Breece Hall in this matchup. The matchup is tougher through the air however. ✈️Outside of two Seahawks in week 2, no WR has topped 89 yards against NE this season, which makes it hard to get excited about Davante Adams or Garrett Wilson now completing for targets. 🟦On the other side of the ball, Hunter Henry would be my favorite piece, offering some salary relief at just $3,800. FALCONS (24.25) 🪶AT BUCCANEERS (21.75)🏴‍☠️ 🏴‍☠️The Bucs are likely to be without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in this one, meaning the Falcons should be able to keep the Tampa offense in check, likely leading to more opportunity for Bijan and Tyler Allgeier. 🪶Derrick Henry just put up 182 yards and a TD on this Bucs defense on MNF, so both Falcons RBs are interesting. 🪶The Falcons pass catchers are also in an above average spot, but feel likely to be way over-owned here based on what happened in week 5 when these teams met for the first time. 🏴‍☠️My initial thoughts are that I’ll avoid these passing games outside of salary savers in Cade Otton and Jalen McMillan. EAGLES (22.5)🦅 AT BENGALS (25) 🐯 🐯Chase Brown has seen an increase in workload but the Eagles have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher and have only surrendered 1 TD to RBs all season. Probably a spot I’ll avoid. 🦅On the other side of the ball, the matchup is middling, but doesn’t stand out for Barkley either, priced at $8,300. 🐯The Eagles secondary has been susceptible to splash plays this year, which makes Chase and Higgins both interesting, but both are at their highest DK salaries of the season. 🦅The matchup isn’t as exciting on paper for A.J. Brown, but he’s certainly in play every week. SAINTS (16.25) 🟡AT CHARGERS (23.75)⚡️ 🟡With Shaheed out for the season and Olave in concussion protocol, the Saints offense has flowed through Kamara, who has a ridiculous floor. 🟡The Chargers are a tougher matchup but Kamara has seen 32 targets the past 4 games to go along with 50 rush attempts during that same stretch. ⚡️For the Chargers, J.K. Dobbins struggled last week, but still saw 17 touches, which he’s done in every game since week 1. His price is elevated, but he’s interesting due to the volume he’s likely to see once again. 🟡Through the air, the matchup is tough, but if Olave were to miss, Mason Tipton stands out as a potential value piece, coming off 9 targets last week. ⚡️For the Chargers, if Quentin Johnston were to miss, this could be a strong spot for rookie Ladd McConkey, who has seen 6 or more targets in all but one game this season. BILLS (25) 🦬AT SEAHAWKS (22)🟢 🟢RBs who have seen 20 touches against the Bills have flourished (209-2 for Henry, 169-0 for Breece and 165-1 for Achane), and Kenneth Walker is averaging 13 rushes and 5 targets this season. At $7,800, he’s expensive, but the matchup doesn’t get much better. 🦬The matchup is also above average for the Bills’ backfield, but James Cook has only seen 16+ touches once in the last 6 weeks. At $7,000 and with 12 other games, there are better spots to target. 🟢Through the air, Geno Smith leads the league in pass attempts and yardage and while the matchup is tough, I’ll have some interested in both JSN and Lockett if Metcalf is out after sustaining an MCL sprain last week. 🦬For the Bills, Keon Coleman is initially my favorite piece. BEARS (22.5)🐻 AT COMMANDERS (21)⛑️ ⛑️The status of Jayden Daniels is probably the biggest factor in my interest in this game. ⛑️The matchup is above average for Brian Robinson Jr as the Bears have allowed 92 or more yards and (at least one) TD to Pollard, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren and Hubbard this season. 🐻Through the air, this is an interesting spot for by Caleb Williams and D.J. Moore as the Commanders have allowed some massive games to WRs already this season; such as 10-127-1 to Malik Nabers, 6-118-2 to Ja’Marr Chase and 9-132-0 to Zay Flowers. PANTHERS (17.25) 🐈‍⬛AT BRONCOS (26.25)🐎 🐎Outside of the Raiders, every team has had its way with Carolina on the ground, and thus I’ll definitely have interest in Javonte Williams in this matchup. 🐎Javonte has seen 17 or more touches in 3 out of the last four games. 🐈‍⬛On the other side of the ball, Chuba Hubbard has seen strong usage as well, but the matchup here is below average. 🏈Through the air, both team’s passing games are probably complete avoids for me on a 13 game slate. CHIEFS (25.75)🟥 AT RAIDERS (15.75)☠️ 🟥Kareem Hunt has seen 28 and 24 touches the past two weeks and the Raiders have allowed several strong games to RBs already. Hunt will likely be on my short list of RBs this week at $6,300. ☠️On the other side of the ball, I have no interest in the Raiders backfield. 🟥While the ground matchup is friendly for Hunt, it’s not a strong one through the air as Zay Flowers and Diontae Johnson are the only pass catchers to surpass 15 DK points against LV so far this season. ☠️For the Raiders, Brock Bowers stands out from both a matchup standpoint as well as potential opportunity, as he’s seen 36 targets the past three weeks. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: DET, DEN, KC, LAC, GB, CHI and ATL That does it for this week. Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard in week 8. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

Congrats @JMToWin and the entire Tohline family!! ❤️ Evelyn Tohline ❤️ January 23rd 1:16 am 8lbs 4oz 21 inches Winners Below 👇

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 2:

7 DK Plays under $5.5k 🔥 Here’s who can help you bink Week 6🏆 (One of these players is only $2.5k!) BRYCE YOUNG ($4,800) Young is too cheap for being a part of the best game environment. He’s playing the Cowboys who boost every QB but is priced for his performance against the rest of the league. He’s easily stackable in several ways, with a few viable bring-backs on the Cowboys. There is a high probability he is going to be the QB on my main team, likely paired with Tet and possibly Dowdle. I’ll use one or two of Javonte Williams, Jake Ferguson, or George Pickens as bring-backs. TREVOR LAWRENCE ($5,100) Like Young, Lawrence is too cheap for being a QB playing in a strong game environment. The Jags offense hasn’t fully clicked, and Lawrence’s play has been a big part of the growing pains. He needs to play better, but this offense is well-orchestrated, and it hasn’t been far away from exploding. The Seahawks defense is dealing with injuries, and with the field generally giving up on Brian Thomas, it’s easy to pair him with T-law at relatively low ownership. I’m going to have one of my tighter builds dedicated to this game, stacked from the Jaguars side. MICHAEL CARTER ($5,300) Carter was priced up after last week, but not enough for having a role that can yield 20+ opportunities. He had that many last week, and he did it while only playing a little over half the snaps. After Emari Demercado’s end zone issues, Carter feels more likely to get 65-70% of the snaps. There is a good chance he sees another 20 opportunities and is still priced like a guy in a timeshare. I’m going to use Carter as a salary saver wherever he makes sense. TREVEYON HENDERSON ($5,200) This is a “play it before you see it” spot. The Patriots lost Antonio Gibson for the year, and Rhamondre Stevenson can’t hold onto the ball. Henderson also needs to play better, but he’s likely to see one of his highest snap shares of the season without Gibson and has the upside to take over the backfield if the coaching staff is tired of Stevenson fumbling. Henderson is risky, but if he goes off, he’ll be chalk in the coming weeks. I’m willing to take a swing before I see it. CHRIS OLAVE ($5,100) Olave is going to remain a projections darling until his price increases. He has seen double digit targets in four out of five games and has scored between 10-16 DK points every week. So far, he’s only demonstrated the floor his usage offers, which, at his price, is nice. The ceiling game hasn’t shown up, but all it’ll take is connecting on one deep pass for Olave to look like a guy who was an obvious play. I’m going to keep riding him until he hits. MICHAEL PITTMAN ($5,400) I think the Colts are going to lean on the pass more than usual to start this game and will keep passing unless they take a commanding lead. Pittman is too cheap for a WR1 in a plus matchup. Like Olave, he hasn’t shown his ceiling, but he has shown a steady floor, scoring over 15 DK points in four out of five games. I’m happy to roster a guy who has a good chance of posting a strong game, with some chance of posting a great game. HUNTER LONG ($2,500) Long is filling in for an injured Brenton Strange. Value is scarce on this slate, and Long provides a lot of salary relief. This floor here is 0, and the most likely outcome is a score between 5-8DK points, but he’s so cheap that if he somehow falls into the end zone, he could end up being a slate defining value. Long is a long shot, but he opens a lot of other possibilities on a week that doesn’t have many obvious ways to save salary. 🚨WEEK 6 ONLY, @Papy324's entire player pool is available for FREE @oneweekseason

NFL Early Week Preview! Our guy @wgabelman goes game by game, position by position with his initial thoughts on the Week 5 slate.. HOU at ATL: 🔴Stroud has been such a pleasant surprise in his first 4 games. Attempted only 30 passes in each of the past 2 games (both HOU wins), but 44 & 47 in the games HOU trailed and lost. 🔴ATL defense has been decent with 24 points the largest they’ve surrendered. Falcons are a run-first team; they like to bleed the clock and reduce total number of plays. 🔴Probably avoid both QBs as it would take 30+ from Stroud at $6k to hurt you - feels like there will be better spots. 🔴ATL run game is in good a spot but going to be tough to pay off Bijan’s salary, esp splitting work. Bijan is averaging 19 touches a game (including 5.5 targets) but would need multiple scores to hurt you at $7.7k. 🔴While it feels like a lower-scoring slugfest (implied total of only 41), at $4.7k Allgeier is in consideration as a punt RB averaging 13 touches. 🔴Pierce is averaging 18.5 opportunities and is also in play as a cheap RB at $5.3k. 🔴Nico Collins has two 30+ DK point outputs & can also be considered. Likely not enough passing to play either DST CAR at DET: 🔷Bryce Young is not as far along in development as Stroud. 🔷CAR has been gashed on the ground. Montgomery is definitely in play. CAR opponents rushing: ATL: Robinson/Allgeier - 25 rushes, 131 yards, 2 TD NO: Taysom/J Williams/Tony Jones - 30 rushes, 138 yards, 2 TD SEA: Walker/Charbonnet - 27 rushes, 143 yards, 2 TD MIN: Mattison/Akers - 22 rushes, 135 yards Average: 26 rushes, 137 yards, 1.5 TD 🔷Goff attempts 28-35 attempts every game with only 12 rushing yards on the season. Viable but may be hard for him to pay off his salary. Put up 26 (likely a borderline ceiling output for him) against a weak SEA secondary on a 300/3 line. 🔷Theilen saw 8+ targets for 3rd straight week, in play at $5.1k TENN at INDY: 🔳 Don’t play RBs against TEN. 🔳Titans have allowed big games to Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and Chris Olave, but kept Jamar Chase in line last week (modest 7 for 73). Is this a spot to take a shot on Downs or Alec Pierce? 🔳Titans haven’t faced a dual-threat QB yet but Richardson’s $7k price tag means he’ll need 30+ to hurt you. Possibly yes, likely, probably not. 🔳Henry in play - Indy has given up big games to RBs: Kyren Williams - 128 total yards, 2 TD Lamar / Edwards / MG3 - 180 rushing yards and 2 TD Etienne/Bigsby - 117 total yards, 2 TDs In a game where TEN leads or keeps it close throughout, Henry could feast. NYG at MIA: 🟠Giants in general have been an absolute dumpster fire 7 out of 8 halves this season. The defense has been absolutely gashed. “Best” outings have been only surrendering 24 to the Seahawks and keeping lowly Arizona to four touchdowns (28 points). 🟠On paper this looks like one of the better game environments on the slate, (and will likely be popular), however, the Giants have only averaged 11 points this season. 🟠MIA DST is a potential strong leverage play as NYG has surrendered 22 sacks through only 4 games and Danny Dimes has committed 7 turnovers. NYG now goes on the road on a short week. If Fins D is gonna be sneaky I will be significantly overweight. 🟠A case for Daniel Jones can be made, however - QBs have done above average against MIA (Allen 39 DK points, 21 to Herbert, 19 to Wilson, and 15 to Mac Jones). 🟠Maybe an unconventional game stack like Jones, Mostert, Tyreek, Waller/Slayton. Tua doubles in play too but expensive. Wan’Dale is only $3k as a punt WR or part of the game stack NO at NE: 🔺 Feels like a gross game. Probably a slugfest of sorts. Both DST are in play. No initial interest outside of Kamara who saw 11 rushes and caught 13 passes last week. The Saints only averaging 19 points against and DST has 5 INT and 9 sacks on the season. Solid mid-tier option. BAL at PIT: 🟣Another gross game with a game total likely under 40. A divisional game that is probably a complete pass for me outside of BAL DST, especially if Pickett sits. 🟣At $7,800, Lamar is just too expensive. 🟣Harris/Warren will likely see a decent amount of touches (especially if Trubisky starts), but the Ravens have yet to give up a rushing TD and neither RB has been particularly efficient while splitting the workload. Late Games:🕓 ⚫️CIN at AZ: The first thing I noticed was $6,200 for Burrow. Yes, he’s been bad, but we saw what a bad defensive unit like the Cards can do for a struggling QB. A Burrow skinny with Chase & Hollywood Brown feels in play. ⚫️Surprisingly, the next thing that crossed my mind is that Cardinals stacks feel oddly viable. The public views AZ as a terrible team tanking for a better pick, but they’ve been (surprisingly) competent and competitive. ⚫️Josh Dobbs already has two games this season with 4.5x his current salary in DK points and likely won’t be owned. A Dobbs double with two of Brown/Conner/Ertz only costs a maximum of $16k. ⚫️On the other side of the ball, Mixon at $6,400 also in play getting 15+ touches a game. Chase and Boyd both strong plays if Higgins misses, and this makes Burrow doubles easy to build. PHI at LAR: 🟨 Jalen Hurts has been good this year but certainly not spectacular. His best game this year is 27 points which is only 3.5x his $8k salary. 🟨Rams DST has been decent despite playing 4 on paper above-average offenses (Bengals, 49ers, Seahawks, and Colts). 🟨Not sure I can get to Hurts in this spot. 🟨Stafford looks appealing at his price but as a pocket passer, he needs 300/3 to get there and has only had 3 total TDs all season. I feel like he’ll garner ownership but my first thought is there are better spots. Now his pass catchers are a different story. 🟨I’ve hit on how the Eagles are not a matchup to be feared for WRs - Bourne, Jefferson, Evans, and McClaurin all had strong games against PHI so Tutu and Puka appear to be strong one-off options. 🟨Kyren at $6,700 feels expensive against the Eagles' formidable run D. 🟨For the Eagles, AJ Brown has seen 10 or more targets in 3 of the 4 games this season but at $8k he needs 35 points to hurt you. 🟨Goedert at $4,200 is appealing as he’s seen 18 targets in the last 3 games. NYJ at DEN: 🟢After SNF, it feels like the field will be running to play Zack Wilson at $4,900. I just don’t know that I can get there. He threw the ball 40 times and only scored 20 DK points, which feels at or close to his ceiling. 🟢The Broncos' DST has been putrid and made Justin Fields look like peak Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson last week. That said, still no ZW for me. 🟢I am interested in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson as one-offs, however. 🟢NYJ DST has been solid and likely not much interest in Broncos pieces unless we have some clear news on their RB situation. KC at MIN: 🔥This sets up to be a good game environment indoors, but QBs feel overpriced. 🔥We know KC traditionally has one of the highest PROE but Pacheco has back-to-back weeks of 18 or more touches. Could be a decent value and bet at $5,700. 🔥Justin Jefferson needs no explanation, but at $9,400 he literally needs 40 to hurt you. 🔥The KC WRs are all cheap and in good on-paper spots, but I’ll need to dig further to see if there is one I want to try and take a stand on. 🔥Both TEs - Kelce and Hockenson are also in good spots but are the two most expensive TEs on the slate (by a wide margin). 🔥I’m guessing they both will carry some decent ownership this week, which may make the mid-tier the forgotten-about range for TE as people always like to pay down and save at the position. 🔒DST - A couple spots caught my eye initially - BAL, DET, MIA, IND, NYJ, NO ⭐️Only a 10-game slate. Winning GPP score (for non-lottos) will likely be lower - maybe 225. A 60/40 split between early/late games this week brings late swap even more into play. As a reminder, all Edge games will be available on the site by Thursday night As always, remember to play fearlessly and build for first!

WEEK 6 DFS ANGLES! OPPORTUNITIES FOR UPSIDE📈 35 POINT WRs:💥 🐬Tyreek Hill 🐅Ja'Marr Chase 🐏Cooper Kupp 🏴‍☠️Davante Adams 🐏Puka Nacua 🦅A.J. Brown 🦁Amon-Ra St. Brown 🐬Jaylen Waddle 🛳️Mike Evans 🦅Devonta Smith 🛳️Chris Godwin 🟢DK Metcalf 🐈Calvin Ridley ⚜️Chris Olave 🐻D.J. Moore RBs:💨 🐏Kyren Williams in a great matchup 🐈Travis Etienne coming off a 39-point game 🐬Raheem Mostert potentially seeing more touches ⚜️Alvin Kamara with back-to-back games of 24+ touches - GAME ENVIRONMENTS: 🚀This slate offers us JUST two teams with implied totals north of 24.75: 🐬DOLPHINS (31.0) vs PANTHERS 🐏RAMS (27.75) vs CARDINALS and everyone else... COMMANDERS (20) at FALCONS (22.5) 🟡The Commanders have seen 60+ points scored in three of their five contests, and they have allowed 33+ points to four of five opponents. 🐦‍⬛The Falcons are capable of putting up points, and the Commanders have the firepower to keep pace if this happens. VIKINGS (23.5) at BEARS (21) 🐻Would it surprise us if these two teams who have combined for seven games over that total end up playing to a higher-scoring affair? SEAHAWKS (21) at BENGALS (24) 🐅The Bengals defense appears to be rounding into form, but the Seattle defense is tough on the ground and has been bad against the pass. 🟩The Seattle offense is almost always going to find a way to keep pace. A higher-scoring outcome is well within the viable range of outcomes. COLTS (20.75) at JAGUARS (24.75) 🐈The Jags scored 31 points against the Colts the last time these teams met, and a similar outcome wouldn't be surprising here and a more exciting game could develop. - Put it all together, and this shapes up as a really fun week. 🏈 The potential for 30-point scores feels high, which should make for fun tourney play.🏆 See you at the top of the leaderboards! -@JMToWin

Low Ownership. Massive Leverage. 9 Contrarian Plays for Week 10 RUNNING BACKS I’m comfortable smashing chalk at this position, but rostering some low-owned options could be effective— especially when betting on game environments. 1. JAHMYR GIBBS // 11% Highest game total for a team that isn’t interested in showing mercy. Between Gibbs and Montgomery, I’m getting full “Sweep the Leg” vibes. I may even get freaky and play them together—with the Lions D and a fourth Detroit piece—in a little secondary onslaught. LFG. 2. D’ANDRE SWIFT // 6% The offense isn’t always pretty, but they run a lot. We’re expecting Swift to settle back into a 60%-plus role and around 16 touches based on his body of work this season. The weather could tilt this game further to the ground, and the Giants have been hemorrhaging points to the position. While the field chases shinier options in his price range, Swift quietly profiles as the kind of volume-and-efficiency combo that sneaks into optimal builds. 3. KENNETH WALKER // 5% One of these days, he’s gonna remind everyone what that Kenneth Walker 60-yard touchdown stuff looks like. At this price-ownership combo, I’ll sprinkle him into a few lineups that lean a little too safe elsewhere. WIDE RECEIVER 4. NICO COLLINS // 7% Yeah, Davis Mills is an issue. Low game total, sure. But that’s why we get an alpha target earner at an ownership discount. Sometimes talent just wins. A three-6K WR build should be plenty unique this week—all five of the 6K guys have concerns, yet all have shown ceiling this season. Imagine a Mac Jones stack with no WRs and three of these 6K dudes doing damage. 🤔 5. DAVANTE ADAMS // 5% DraftKings tossed some chum into the GPP Game Theory bro waters here. He’s overpriced for his likely median outcome, but if he breaks through for a 30-piece… yikes. 6. DYAMI BROWN // 4% Brian Thomas Jr. is out and Jakobi Meyers just unpacked his bags on Wednesday. Brown and Parker Washington should both see plenty of looks. Parker’s your floor piece; Dyami’s the Babe Ruth swing. TIGHT END 7. JUWAN JOHNSON // 4% The Panthers rank 32nd in DVOA against the position, which is bad because there are only 32 teams in the NFL. 8. COLSTON LOVELAND // 3% Drafted 10th overall in the 2025 draft and broke out for 32.8 fantasy points last week. That’s a lot of fantasy points. 9. GREG DULCICH // 1% I can hear you guys now — “oh shit, Sonic’s gone off the rails again.” But Darren Waller’s addition earlier this season gave Miami’s pass game a much-needed third dimension, and Dulcich isn’t here to block. Get the rest of @Sonic_nhpain's MME Pool and everything else OWS has to offer for $1 this week! 🔥 (Link in Bio)

DFS + CHESS In Chess, we position pieces with strategic intent and leverage their strengths to gain an advantage. In DFS we do the same. Here's 6 Chess pieces Papy will be using in Week 13: PAWN – WR DAVID MOORE ($3,500) Jalen Coker has been ruled out which means it’s likely that the Panthers will deploy their WRs the same way they did last week. In that game, Moore played 94% of the snaps and saw 10 targets. He turned those targets into a 6/81/1 line and gave the Panthers every reason to keep using him. The Bucs are below average (21st in DVOA) against the pass and the Panthers seem to have taken a “screw it” approach with Bryce Young since he returned from a mid-season benching. The coaching staff started the year trying to hide Young. That changed when he came off the bench. Young has been allowed to throw over 35 times in two of the Panthers last four games. The Bucs are probably going to score against the Panthers (everyone does) and that will force the Panthers to respond with aggression. Expect another 35 plus passing attempts from Young, with a target expectation of 7-9 for Moore. I’m going to use Moore throughout my rosters as a classic salary-saving one-off player who has a heightened role because of injury. KNIGHT – QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON ($5,500) I’m going to plant my flag on Richardson this week. He’s currently projected for 12% ownership, but I’d guess it’ll end up lower because there are so many appealing game environments, and IND/NE (42.5) is the second lowest total on the slate. Richardson is inconsistent, but when he hits, he usually hits hard. There isn’t another player on the slate priced in his range with as much of a chance at scoring 30 DK points. Richardson’s rushing production is locked in, all he needs to be a fantasy stud is adding more through the air. The Patriots secondary has been atrocious (31st in DVOA).  Only the hapless Jaguars have been worse. They’re also specifically bad against WR1s (26th in DVOA) and WR2s (29th in DVOA). The Colts WR room is banged up. Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin have been ruled out, leaving a gimpy Alec Pierce ($4,900) (he missed Wed/Thu practices with a foot), plus Michael Pittman ($5,200) as the primary target, with Adonai Mitchell ($3,900) to see an elevated role. Pittman and Mitchell are both dirt cheap for their projected roles/matchup and make easy stacking partners with Richardson. Hunter Henry ($4,200) has seen 8/9 targets the past two weeks and the Colts defense concedes production to TEs (24th in DVOA). There is a good chance I’m going to use Richardson + Pittman + Mitchell + Henry as the primary stack on my main build this week, which should be almost entirely unowned as a player block. BISHOP – TE TREY MCBRIDE ($5,800) McBride is highly involved in the passing game, essentially functioning as the Cardinals WR1. He’s seen 15/5/4/11/7 targets in his past five games which highlights his volatility, but also shows his upside. He’s been nothing but excellent, turning his 15/11 target games into 12/133 and 9/124 lines. Even in his recent games where he didn’t get as much volume, he still scored over 10 DK points in all three. The Vikings defense has been generally great, but the one area where they’re middling is against TEs (13th in DVOA), while they’ve been brutal against WRs. If the Cardinals offense finds any success, it’s probably coming through McBride. The one area McBride hasn’t contributed this season is touchdowns. Remarkably, he has only scored one touchdown (it was rushing). That doesn’t make much sense given that McBride is a big bodied physical specimen who profiles as a red zone weapon. We all know that touchdowns are flukey, and they can show up at any moment. If McBride finds the end zone, he’s going to post a monster stat line. I’m willing to bet he finally finds the paint through the air, in a game that feels close to “must win” status for the Cardinals playoff position. ROOK – WR TEE HIGGINS ($6,600) Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600) has been the best WR in fantasy football but this week he gets what is going to be a career long battle with Joey Porter. Porter has been the best shadow coverage corner in the league since he became a full-time starter in Week 8 last season. He covered Chase on 86% of his routes in last year’s Week 12 meeting between these two teams and he is expected to shadow Chase again on Sunday. Porter versus Chase is an awesome real-life matchup that any football fan should be excited to see twice a year over the next decade, but for fantasy football, Porter’s coverage on Chase means there is a good chance Higgins sees additional volume. Last week, Higgins got 13 targets in his return from injury, and he saw 8 // 7 // 14 // 10 targets in his previous four games. The Bengals are the only team still passing like it’s 2019, and even if the Bengals decide to go after Chase against Porter, it’s still likely that Higgins will end up with 8-10 targets. If Porter’s coverage sends more balls to Higgins, he could see 10-15 targets. That’s a lot of opportunity, and I plan on using Higgins as a one-off WR throughout my tighter builds. Even though I’d rather play Higgins, don’t totally forget about Chase. Chase should have negligible ownership, and since his matchup with Porter is going to be a career long grudge match, you know Chase doesn’t want to concede that Porter can take him away. He’s probably been telling Burrow all week, “he can’t cover me.” I’ll throw in some Chase in large field play, but I’ll primarily focus on Higgins for my tighter builds. QUEEN – RB JOE MIXON ($8,000) Mixon has seen 31 // 24 // 29 // 24 // 20 opportunities over his past five games. He plays around 75% of the snaps and is set to dominate the backfield work against the sorry Jaguars. The Jags defense has been the worst in the league and it isn’t particularly close. They rank dead last overall (32nd in DVOA), are easy to pass against (30th in DVOA), and a walkover (32nd in DVOA) on the ground. Mixon has scored over 25 DK points five times this year. Those games came against IND (2x) // NE // GB // DAL. Those teams rank 16th // 27th // 15th // 29th in DVOA against the run. Mixon has shown a clear pattern of dominating games against bad run defenses and this week he gets the worst of the bunch. I view Mixon as the player with the most likely chance to reach 30 DK points, and 20 DK points feel like his floor. The one knock on Mixon is that he’s playing on the road but interestingly, four out of five of Mixon’s big games have come on the road. That’s probably just a quirk in the stats, but it’s nice to see that he’s succeeded away from home. There aren’t many reasons to avoid Mixon and I’m going to use him as my pay up RB on my tighter builds. KING – WR A.J. BROWN ($8,300) If Mixon is the most likely player to reach 30 DK points, Brown is the most likely player to reach 40 DK points. That’s not to say it’s “likely” that Brown will reach such a high threshold, but if looking at a player “who could” post a 40 DK point game, Brown must be at the top of the list. Brown has been his usual dominant self this year, but remarkably, he has seen double digit targets only once, all the way back in Week 1. In fact, he only saw 9 targets one other time, and that was in Week 2. From Week 3 forward, Brown has been between 4-8 targets per game, miraculously only seeing 8 targets in one of those games! A fair target projection per game for Brown this season is 5-7. That’s wild considering he is priced over $8,000. Why am I recommending playing a WR on the run heaviest team in the league with a tiny target projection? Because this week he sees the Ravens, who have boosted the passing volume of every team they’ve faced. Brown is the WR8 in PPR per game scoring average, despite seeing the typical targets of a mid-range WR2. What is going to happen if he has a spiked week of 10-15 targets? His matchup against the Ravens means it could be this week and it doesn’t hurt that DeVonta Smith ($5,800) looks like he might be on the wrong side of questionable. I want Brown when he finally gets 15 targets. To read @Papy324's End Game, you can find Papy's Pieces in The Scroll

One Story Four Players Use this stack to hunt first place👇 The Stack: - Sam Darnold - Kenneth Walker - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Rashid Shaheed The Story: Seahawks win 34-24 Darnold goes overlooked because he’s priced near other backup QBs → leverage spot JSN hauls in 2 TDs on volume Walker controls the ground game Shaheed rips a 125-yard line + a long TD with Seattle missing multiple DBs Yes, JSN + Walker will draw ownership. But adding Darnold + Shaheed turns it into a true low-owned stack with ceiling. Why It Can Work: New Orleans plays at the fastest pace in the league (1st in neutral pace, 3rd in PROE). Seattle is implied for 24.5 points in a game with real shootout potential. Darnold is at home (where he always plays better), and with the Saints’ defense showing little resistance, the path is clear. No Charbonnet means volume funnels through Walker + JSN. 🥇Want more ideas to attack first place? 👉 Check out @larejo123's 'Willing to Lose' in The Scroll at @oneweekseason

7 DK Plays under $5.7K 🔥 Here’s who can help you bink Week 10🏆 J.J. MCCARTHY ($4,900) McCarthy looked like he could play last week after some concern that his injury was really a secret benching. His price is still depressed because of his early season performance, but if he is going to be capable of running a good offense, this is way too cheap. I’m high on this game environment, and it’s easy to pair him with either of his primary pass catchers. I’m going to have a Vikings stack on one of my tighter builds. TREVEYON HENDERSON ($5,600) Henderson played a lot (75% of the snaps) last week with Stevenson out, and he is set to miss another week. The matchup isn’t ideal, but if Henderson gets another 20 opportunities, he should be about $1,000 more expensive. Henderson is an explosive player, and you don’t have to squint very hard to see him breaking a big play. I’m going to use him as a salary saver RB. TEZ JOHNSON ($4,500) Tez played 71% of the snaps in Week 8 and appears to have secured the number 2 WR role. His matchup isn’t ideal, but it’s difficult to find a better option in his price range. He’s seen 15 targets over the past two weeks, and it’s reasonable to project him for another 7-9. I’m going to take the volume at his price tag. He’s easy to pair in a mini correlation with Henderson that saves salary. JAUAN JENNINGS ($4,300) Jennings remains underpriced since returning from injury. He led the WR room in snaps (79%), and there is a good chance he’ll see more targets in this game environment. He’s easily stackable or used as a one-off to save salary. He offers access to one of the top environments at a discount. There is no wrong way to play Jennings. MARVIN HARRISON JR. ($5,300) Harrison is priced like he has Kyler Murray at QB. No matter who you think is better between Jacoby Brissett or Murray, it’s impossible to question what is better for Harrison. He has looked like a different player with Brissett, and this would be an easy smash play if it weren’t for his difficult matchup. He’s still too cheap for a WR1 that looks like he is finally starting to deliver on his draft talent. I’m going to use Harrison, mostly as a one-off play where his salary makes sense. KAHLIL SHAKIR ($5,100) He’s too cheap and easy to pair with Josh Allen. He has a reasonable target projection of 6-8, and that should be plenty to do damage against the Dolphins secondary. He probably doesn’t have the upside to break the slate, but he should be safe for solid salary considered value. I don’t think I’ll use him away from Allen, but on rosters where I predict the Bills game explodes, I’ll use Shakir. JUWAN JOHNSON ($3,700) Johnson gets the Panthers, who have been murdered by TEs (32nd in DVOA). He’s not seeing the targets he was earlier in the season, but this could be a spike game with such a prime matchup. There aren’t a lot of great punt TE options this week, and if I’m looking to spend other places, I’ll lean on Johnson at TE and hope for a 7-9 target game. View @Papy324's entire Process on The Scroll weekly @oneweekseason

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 15:

Top DraftKings Contests: Week 2 We went through the DK lobby and found the best contests for your bankroll. 🔖Bookmark this guide for this weekend: Lower Stakes :: $50 Bankroll •$175k Fair Catch - $12 :: Single Entry •$75k Fair Catch - $12 :: Single Entry •$100k Huddle - $5 :: Single Entry •$15k Huddle - $5 :: Single Entry •$40k Pylon - $3 :: Single Entry •$40k Nickel - $5 :: 3-max •$25k Triple Option - $3 :: 3-max •$15k Daily Dollar - $1 :: Single Entry •$150k First Down - $1 :: 20-max •$15k Safety - $2 :: 20-max •$15k Singleback - $1 :: 3-max •$20k Cover Four - $4 :: 3-max •$25k Fair Catch - $12 :: Single Entry •$10k Pylon - $3 :: Single Entry •$15k Screen Pass - $15 :: 3-max •$75k Blindside - $27 :: Single Entry •$2k T-Mobile Game Day - Free Mid Stakes :: $250 Bankroll • All contests mentioned in “lower stakes” •$50k Front Four - $4 :: 20-max •$50k 1st and 10 - $10 :: 10-max •$888k Play-Action - $3 :: 20-max •$200k Red Zone - $50 :: Single Entry •$50k Red Zone - $50 :: Single Entry •$50k Spy - $100 :: Single Entry •$100k Red Zone - $100 :: Single Entry •$100k Blindside - $27 :: Single Entry •$50k Blindside - $27 :: Single Entry •$40k Goal Line - $75 :: 3-max •$150k Three-Point Stance - $33 :: 5-max •$30k End Zone - $75 :: Single Entry High Stakes :: $1000+ Bankroll • All previously mentioned contests •$100k Slant - $9 :: 150-max •$40k 4th and Ten - $40 :: 10-max •$100k Power Sweep - $150 :: 3-max •$50k Spin Move - $300 :: Single Entry

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 8:

Low Ownership. Elite Upside. 🔥 10 Contrarian Plays Under 10% 👇 RUNNING BACK 1. SAQUON BARKLEY // 10% A tremor is felt emanating from Minnesota. Birds take to the sky for safety, but the Eagles look directly at Barkley to exploit the Vikings’ aggression and finally rip multiple big plays — reminding us why we coveted him so in August. Something wicked this way runs. 2. ASHTON JEANTY // 8% His offense sucks, but his legs are fresh and his role voluminous. I’d dodge him in this spot if he were chalk, but he ain’t. 3. JORDAN MASON // 7% Sixteen plus touches every week but only one payoff game. Touchdown variance has been cruel, but this could be the week the pendulum swings. Minnesota may push pace and force Mason into high-value touches — perfect setup for overdue efficiency regression. 4. RHAMONDRE STEVENSON // 6% It’s heartwarming to see a coach stand by his man despite fumble-itis. If there’s ever a spot for a Pats blowout and multiple goal-line touches for Rhamondre, it’s this narrative-laden affair. WIDE RECEIVER 5. COURTLAND SUTTON // 8% The Giants showed some sac at home last week, but Mile High’s a different story. I’m leaning into the idea that Denver stays aggressive and the Bo Nix–Sutton connection bears fruit. 6. JORDAN ADDISON // 5% If Saquon starts ripping big plays, this could morph into an attractive game environment. Addison’s quick-strike ability makes him a solid bet to further ignite that fire — and he’s clean leverage off his ever-popular teammate, Justin Jefferson. 7. RASHID SHAHEED // 5% A staple in this space, and probably always will be — we’ll always click his boom/bust profile over the high-floor, low-aDOT crowd. Keep an eye on the weather; heavy wind could temper the field’s enthusiasm … making him an even better tournament play! 8. DEMARIO DOUGLAS // 0.3% You probably think of him as a short-aDOT Wandale/Rondale type, don’t you? The dude caught a bomb last week and had another wiped out by a bullshit penalty. If Stefon Diggs can’t go or is limited, maybe DD gets on the field more and reminds us why he was the buzz of camp last year. Make no mistake — plays like this are exactly why I put that disclaimer pic in here. TIGHT END 9. DALLAS GOEDERT // 6% Probably my favorite play on the slate because I haven’t heard his name mentioned by anyone all week — and he may get squeezed while well-endowed, name-brand Travis Kelce gets the iPhone click and Tucker Kraft draws the attention of opto-geeks and ball-knowers. Twenty targets in the last three games, and they feature him creatively in the red zone. Lots of intriguing options at this position, but our ROI may depend on which one (or TWO…double TE ftw!) we choose to overweight. 10. JAKE FERGUSON // 7% Bad news is they jacked his price up. Good news is fewer people will click him. So really, the bad news is actually good news … which I think means I’m a glass-half-full guy. Also, I’m drunk. Check out Sonic's MME Pool in the scroll for more Contrarian Plays from @Sonic_nhpain

THE TOP THREE TEAMS 🚀 @JMToWin is BUILDING AROUND this week! 1⃣EAGLES 🦅Hurts is the only QB with four top-four fantasy finishes on the year, and he’s taking on a pass defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and has allowed 279+ passing yards to Russell Wilson, Hurts, Fields, Ridder, and Tyrod. 🦅Mims, Diggs, AJB, DJ Moore, and London have all topped 100 against Washington, with AJB and DJM going for 175+. 🦅In case you’ve missed it: the Philly pass defense hasn’t been the same this year, which has allowed Philly opponents to stay in games, which has led to Philly passing deeper into games than they did last year, which has allowed AJB to see target counts in his last five games of 15 // 9 // 8 // 13 // 14. 🦅Brown has tied Calvin Johnson’s record of five consecutive games with 125+ receiving yards, and it won’t be surprising if he takes that record for himself this week. 🦅Washington is middling against RBs, but D’Andre Swift is sitting on 15.0 pre-TD PPR points per game (13.3 in his last four — which removes his two best games), which matches him with Pollard (13.2), Saquon (13.3), and Etienne (13.4), all of whom have much higher price tags. Swift also has 12 carries inside the 10, compared to six for Etienne and four for Saquon (Pollard leads this group with 17). 🦅Any way you slice it, Swift remains very underpriced, and it’s only a matter of time until he has another 30-pointer and finally sees his price spike. 🦅The entire Eagles passing attack (Hurts // AJB // Devonta // Goedert) and Swift are in play for me this week. - 2⃣CHIEFS 🔥On the KC side, it’s Mahomes // Rashee // Kelce // Pacheco for me. 🔥Nothing much needs to be said about any of these guys, but I’ll note that Rashee Rice ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per route run, and his snaps are continuing to increase. 🔥The Broncos have given up the most running back rushing yards and the second most running back targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. 🔥Kansas City has talked this week about the need for them to continue establishing the run, and this is (obviously) a great spot for them to do just that. Pacheco stands out on this slate. 🔥I’m sure I’ll have my fair share of Kelce and Mahomes, I’ll continue taking some shots on Rice, and I’ll probably have plenty of Pacheco this week. - 3⃣RAVENS 🐦‍⬛Arizona ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and 29th against the run, and the only real drawback in this spot is the potential for this game to be non-competitive, which would lessen the need for the Ravens to remain aggressive throughout. 🐦‍⬛I still don’t know how deep I’ll be on these plays, but all of Lamar // Zay // Andrews will be part of my pool this week, with all three in contention for tighter builds. - For more including: 🔵Blue Chips 🔵Building Blocks 🔵Single-Three Entry Player Pool Find the rest of @JMToWin's Player Grid on The Scroll!

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 13:

5 DK Plays under $5K 🔥 Here’s who can help you bink Week 9 🏆 TREVEYON HENDERSON ($4,900) Henderson is the last man standing in the Patriots backfield, and the Falcons have been vulnerable against the run. Josh McDaniels likes to attack an opponent’s weakness, and that raises the chance that Henderson gets his highest number of carries this season. If Henderson takes over Stevenson’s 75% snap share, he’s a screaming value. I’m going to Henderson to save salary wherever possible. KAREEM HUNT ($4,700) Hunt is stepping into the Chiefs RB1 role due to injury. He’s too cheap for his projected volume in a high total game, but it would be foolish to predict a massive snap share. Hunt should lead the way, but the Chiefs are likely to go with Brashard Smith ($4,200) in passing situations. The Chiefs are also choosing to attack through the air, and that is unlikely to change in a game they’ll probably need to score points. Hunt is underpriced, but with so many good options filling in for injured players at RB, I’m not sure how many of my lineups Hunt will end up making. I’ll use him, but he won’t be a priority. KYLE MONANGAI ($4,600) Monangai steps into the Bears RB1 role with D’Andre Swift set to miss this game. Monangai has been getting more run as the season progresses, and now should be the lead back in an excellent matchup against the Bengals Swiss cheese defense. There isn’t much more to explain. He’s nearly minimum priced, he’s playing in a great game environment, and he has an easy opponent. What more could you want? JAUAN JENNINGS ($4,300) Jennings is too cheap for a player who has seen seven targets in the past two weeks and projects for another 7-9 targets in a plus matchup. This game should be played with pace, and one of the 49ers pass catchers is likely to hit. Jennings is the cheapest, and when fading CMC, he’s a good leverage option to bet on. There are a lot of good cheap options at RB, which has allowed most of my tighter builds to spend money at WR. I don’t know if I’ll end up on Jennings because of this week’s cheap RBs, but if I want to save at WR, he’ll be one of my top choices. ALEX PIERCE ($4,600) This game is expected to draw heavy ownership, but Pierce is projected to be under 5% owned. He plays nearly every snap and is the primary deep threat. Pittman is more likely to hit, but Pierce has the highest upside. If he gets behind the Steelers defense, he could be the guy you need to take down a big tournament. I’m going to use him as leverage on rosters that don’t use other players from this game. Pierce catching long TDs could be the reason chalk pieces from this game fail. View @Papy324's entire Process on The Scroll weekly @oneweekseason

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 10:

The field is ignoring these 8 plays All are under 6% owned in Week 2 👀 If you play MME, don't ignore this post 👇 RUNNING BACKS 1. Breece Hall // 4% In Week 1, Hall played 58 percent of the snaps, stayed fresh while still handling 70 percent of the RB carries, and racked up 21 touches. One glance at Schefter’s “Ed Oliver in a walking boot” tweet and I thumb-upped Breece in the opto instantly. 2. D'Andre Swift // 6% The Lions usually play sharper at home, which raises the odds of a back-and-forth script where Chicago has to keep pace. Swift handled 20 touches in Week 1, and if touchdown variance spins his way and lands on one of those little wedges like in Wheel of Fortune, he’s got the profile to be a tournament winner at this price and ownership. WIDE RECEIVERS 3. Rashid Shaheed // 3% Guys who can produce tournament-winning numbers on limited touches at low ownership are always in my pool. They’ll often miss — and as MME players, we’ve got to have the stomach for that. 4. Jameson Williams // 4% He could completely bust if this environment underwhelms, or he could break the slate. I want to be sitting at 4x on Jamo whenever he’s left for dead by the field. 5. George Pickens // 5% The Giants front is dangerous, but their secondary is exploitable. With Pickens, you’re just hoping he hauls in the long ones instead of drawing those fantasy-killing PI flags. TIGHT ENDS 6. Noah Fant // 1% The Bengals have been searching for a tight end they can actually trust to handle multiple roles instead of the one-trick ponies they’ve been stringing together. Last week, in a game where Joe Burrow threw just 23 forward passes, Fant drew five targets and looked like the subject of schemed usage. At micro ownership against Jacksonville, this feels like a nice MME dart. 7. Brenton Strange // 5% Had four targets in Week 1, caught all of them, and somehow led the team with 59 receiving yards. If he can fall into the box, he could unlock some ceiling for you on the cheap. 8. Tyler Warren // 6% Oh, and play Tyler Warren at single-digit ownership until I say stop, OK? Need more GPP winning plays? All are under 6% owned in Week 2 croll

🚨First Look Chalk Report: Week 7 Currently Projecting for 15%+ Ownership DRAFTKINGS ▫️RASHEE RICE – 33% ▫️QUINSHON JUDKINS – 31% ▫️JAVONTE WILLIAMS – 27% ▫️DEEBO SAMUEL SR. – 24% ▫️TREY MCBRIDE – 24% ▫️CEEDEE LAMB – 23% ▫️CHRIS OLAVE – 22% ▫️BREECE HALL – 22% ▫️JAYDEN DANIELS – 22% ▫️JONATHAN TAYLOR – 18% ▫️JOSH JACOBS – 17% ▫️A.J. BROWN – 16% ▫️TYLER WARREN – 16% ▫️DE'VON ACHANE – 16% ▫️JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITT – 15% ▫️D’ANDRE SWIFT – 15% FANDUEL ▫️QUINSHON JUDKINS – 31% ▫️JAVONTE WILLIAMS – 29% ▫️BREECE HALL – 26% ▫️DEEBO SAMUEL SR. – 25% ▫️JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITT – 23% ▫️RASHEE RICE – 23% ▫️JAYDEN DANIELS – 23% ▫️CHRIS OLAVE – 21% ▫️PATRICK MAHOMES – 20% ▫️TREY MCBRIDE – 19% ▫️CEEDEE LAMB – 19% ▫️JONATHAN TAYLOR – 18% ▫️D’ANDRE SWIFT – 18% ▫️DE’VON ACHANE – 17% ▫️STEFON DIGGS – 17% ▫️KIMANI VIDAL – 16% ALL OWNERSHIP IS FREE ON OWS THIS WEEK 🔥

DFS Chalk :: Week 3 Current projection for 20%+ Ownership DRAFTKINGS ▫️ JORDAN MASON (40%) ▫️ CAM AKERS (32%) ▫️ BRANDON AIYUK (27%) ▫️ ZACH CHARBONNET (26%) ▫️ ALVIN KAMARA (24%) ▫️ DEVONTA SMITH (21%) --- FANDUEL ▫️ CAM AKERS (43%) ▫️ JORDAN MASON (30%) ▫️ BRANDON AIYUK (29%) ▫️ ZACH CHARBONNET (24%) ▫️ RASHEE RICE (23%) ▫️ ALVIN KAMARA (22%) Who do you think will fail this week?

🚨 DFS Chalk :: Week 2 Current Projection for 15%+ Ownership DRAFTKINGS ▫️CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (34%) ▫️PUKA NACUA (19%) ▫️HOLLYWOOD BROWN (19%) ▫️TEE HIGGINS (18%) ▫️JA'MARR CHASE (18%) ▫️DE'VON ACHANE (18%) ▫️TREY MCBRIDE (17%) ▫️KYREN WILLIAMS (17%) ▫️CHASE BROWN (17%) ▫️JAHMYR GIBBS (15%) FANDUEL ▫️CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (25%) ▫️TREY MCBRIDE (22%) ▫️CHASE BROWN (22%) ▫️JA'MARR CHASE (21%) ▫️PUKA NACUA (21%) ▫️TONY POLLARD (20%) ▫️DERRICK HENRY (20%) ▫️ZAY FLOWERS (19%) ▫️DE'VON ACHANE (18%) ▫️JAHMYR GIBBS (18%) ▫️TETAIROA MCMILLAN (16%) ▫️TEE HIGGINS (16%) ▫️MALIK NABERS (15%)

NFL DFS: Week 12 Game by Game Thoughts by @wgabelman JAGUARS🐈 @ TEXANS🐂 🐂Jacksonville has allowed 300+ passing games to Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Gardner Minshew and Derek Carr. Brock Purdy (296 yards, 3 TDs) and CJ Stroud (in these team’s first matchup - 280 yards, 2 TDs) both also produced strong games. 🐈Coming off a season high 32 DK points, Trevor Lawrence is also interesting, but CJ Stroud at home feels like the better option initially. 🐈On the ground, the Texans have allowed only one running back to exceed 21 DK points (Rashaad White - 27 points with 2 rushing TDs). 🐂Both Nico Collins and Tank Dell, as well as Ridley and Kirk are interesting options from this game and one, I have initial interest in building around. 🐂Dalton Schultz and Evan Engram also fall into that bucket for me this week. SAINTS⚜️@ FALCONS 🐦‍⬛ 🐦‍⬛Desmond Ridder is back under center for Atlanta, but this a divisional matchup that is unlikely to turn into aerial assault. No QB has surpassed 275 passing yards against either team so no interest in both Ridder or Carr. 🐦‍⬛Coming off a season high 22 rush attempts, Bijan Robinson is initially interesting as a potential volume play, however, the Saints have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. ⚜️At $8,300 and ceding work to both Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hill, probably not a spot I get to Alvin Kamara. ⚜️In the pass game, Chris Olave continues to average 9.5 targets a week. Could be a sneaky spot for him, despite coming off back-to-back games with TDs. 🐦‍⬛On the Atlanta side, I’m most interested in the TEs (Pitts and Jonnu Smith) as pay down options at the position. STEELERS🟡@ BENGALS🐅 🟡Another divisional matchup with an underwhelming QB matchup between Kenny Pickett and Jake Browning. Not a spot I’ll likely be targeting either QB. 🟡At RB, this feels like a strong spot for Jaylen Warren. Coming off back-to-back hundred-yard performances in a game where Pittsburgh needs to win to keep their playoff position. 🐅Thru the air, this is an intriguing spot for the Bengals, as alpha WRs have had success against Pittsburgh. I expect Chase’s ownership to be low with the field’s uncertainty with Browning at the helm. Will be a spot I take some shots if he’s projecting for low ownership. BUCANEERS 🏴‍☠️ @ COLTS🐴 🐴Teams tend to pass at a high rate against Tampa, and Gardner Minshew has shown 30 point ceiling. Initially a spot I’m very interested in as Indy’s pass offense is very condensed, and Minshew is only $5,100. 🏴‍☠️On the ground White is interesting as he continues to see 18+ opportunities a game and the Colts have allowed multi-score games to several RBs this season. 🏴‍☠️Like the Texans and Jags game, this is a game environment that I have interest in the primary pass catchers on both teams, and is a spot I’d potentially be interested in building around. PATRIOTS🔴 @ GIANTS 🔷 🔷Devito has improved in each of his starts but has yet to attempt more than 27 passes. 🔴On the other side of the ball, no interest in Mac Jones either as his play has generally been putrid. 🔷On the ground Barkley continues to be heavily involved, averaging 24 opportunities a game and will be someone I consider. 🔴Demario Douglas is the only pass catcher of initial interest as this is likely a spot, I’ll mostly avoid outside of those two. PANTHERS 🦁@ TITANS ⚔️ ⚔️Another matchup of rookie QBs, but not one I see a whole lot of potential fantasy goodness. ⚔️That story changes on the ground however, as the Panthers offer one of the best on paper matchups against the run. Both Henry and Spears are initially interesting. 🦁The Titans have been susceptible to the pass, and the general public feels like it’s cooling on Adam Thielen. He continues to see double digit targets most weeks and makes a great pairing with Henry or Spears or as a one-off. RAMS🐏 @ CARDINALS 🐦 🐦A potentially interesting spot for Kyler Murray. Four opposing QBs attempted 5 or more rushes, and 2 had great success - Anthony Richardson, 30.6 DK points and Jalen Hurts 31.3 DK points, while Josh Dobbs had 47 yards rushing and Kenny Pickett also ran for a TD. 🐏The Rams are potentially expecting Kyren Williams back, who has averaged over 20 opportunities a game while scoring 7 TDs (in 6 games). The Cardinals have been very friendly against the run with 5 backs surpassing 100 yards, which excludes lines of 80-3 from Gus Edwards, 95-1 from Bijan Robinson and 92 total yards and 2 TDs from Saquan Barkley. Definitely a spot I’ll be keeping an eye on. 🐦For the Cardinals, Hollywood Brown was limited on Wednesday but was a non-participant yesterday. If he misses, my interest in Trey McBride would be substantial. 🐏On the other side of the ball, Kupp is listed as questionable after sustaining an ankle sprain last week. If he’s unable to go, Puka Nacua is still averaging over 10 targets a game and like McBride, would also be in a strong spot. BROWNS🔶 @ BRONCOS🐎 🔶Cleveland might be the best overall defense in the league, and the Broncos have been borderline elite as well for the past six weeks averaging 17 points against, despite facing Mahomes twice, Josh Allen and Josh Dobbs. 🔶The ground matchup here is interesting for the Browns, however Ford and Hunt basically split the backfield last week. 🔶Amari Cooper might make his way into consideration but coming off 15 targets last week Njoku is the pass catcher I’m most interested in from this game. CHIEFS🔴@ RAIDERS 🏴‍☠️ 🔴No QB has exceeded 25 DK points against LV, and last week Tua Tagovailoa was the first quarterback to surpass 275 yards against the Raiders. I’m not sure this is as good a spot as the field might think for Mahomes and he’s $8,200. 🔴I may have some interest in Pacheco here as he’s seen 17 or more opportunities in 7 of the past 8 games and The Raiders have been susceptible against the run. 🔴Travis Kelce is in play every week and offers put the slate out of reach upside, averaging 9 targets a week. BILLS 🦬 @ EAGLES🦅 🦬Probably the most exciting game of the weekend from a viewer standpoint. Josh Allen is initially the more interesting of the two options to me as the Eagles have allowed some monster games to QBs this season - 397-4 to Sam Howell, 374-3 to Dak Prescott, 364-4 to Kirk Cousins and 316-3 to to Mac Jones. 🦅On the ground, the matchup is intriguing for Swift as the Bills have allowed big games to opposing RBs and the field is likely to want to play Eagles passing attack. 🦬Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid are the two pass catchers catching my eye initially as we’ve seen this Eagles secondary get gouged almost every week. DEFENSES Upon first pass, my initial favorite DST units this week are DEN, KC and HOU --- Join us on the site for Black Friday deals and strategy thoughts for Week 12!

NFL DFS: WEEK 2 — THE END AROUND Scoring is down. Chalk is forming. The slate is wide open. Let’s cut through the noise and find where the raw points really are. 🔥 QB: Expensive (Lamar/Burrow/Allen/Hurts) RBs: CMC + 1–2 from Achane/Kyren/Brown/Gibbs WRs: At least one CIN WR (Chase/Higgins) + Hollywood Brown as the glue piece Quarterback Expensive QBs are leading the way: Lamar, Burrow, Allen, and Hurts make up about a third of the field combined. That means the “default” roster construction starts by paying up at QB. Running Back CMC as the anchor: ~1/3 of rosters will start with Christian McCaffrey. Ownership cluster: Achane, Kyren, Chase Brown, and Gibbs combine for ~65% ownership. That makes the mid-to-high RB pricing tier extremely concentrated. The chalk build is almost always going to include two of these guys, often paired with CMC. That creates a three-RB chalk core. Wide Receiver: Bengals stack piece: ~1/3 of lineups will have either Chase or Higgins. That’s a clear ownership funnel around Burrow stacks or runbacks. Salary Saver: Hollywood Brown looks like the cheap WR that fits the double-spend RB builds, meaning his ownership could spike higher than projections. FINAL THOUGHTS This slate is wide open. The field is clumping into predictable builds. That means leverage + creativity is more valuable than ever. 👉 Full breakdown inside The End Around (@HilowFF) — only at OWS. 🔥

Top DraftKings Contests: Week 4 We went through the DK lobby and found the contests with the flattest payout structures. 🔖Bookmark this guide for this weekend: Lower Stakes :: $50 Bankroll • $50k Huddle - $5 Single Entry • $50k Pylon - $3 Single Entry • $50k Nickel - $5 3-max • $30k Triple Option - $3 3-max • $15k Daily Dollar - $1 Single Entry • $25k Quarter Jukebox - $0.25 20-max • $175k First Down - $1 20-max • $20k Safety - $2 20-max • $60k Engage Eight - $8 3-max • $20k Singleback - $1 3-max Mid Stakes :: $250 Bankroll •All contests mentioned in “lower stakes” • $200k Fair Catch - $12 Single Entry • $75k Fair Catch - $12 Single Entry • $50k 1st and 10 - $10 10-max • $1M Play-Action - $3 20-max • $50k Red Zone - $50 Single Entry • $100k Red Zone - $50 Single Entry • $75k Blindside - $27 Single Entry • $40k Front Four - $4 20-max • $25k Fair Catch - $12 Single Entry High Stakes :: $1000+ Bankroll • All previously mentioned contests • $150k Slant - $9 150-max • $50k Spy - $100 Single Entry • $40k Goal Line - $75 3-max • $40k 4th and 10 - $40 10-max Other High Stakes Considerations • $600k Power Sweep - $150 3-max • $300k End Zone - $75 3-max • $150k Three-Point Stance - $33 5-max

NFL DFS: WEEK 9 A first look at the robust 12-game main slate through the lens of StatATL COWBOYS (24.75) 🤠AT FALCONS (27.25)🪶 🪶Every opponent facing Atlanta has had a pass catcher post a solid score against this Falcons defense, the worst being George Pickens with a 6-85-0 line on 7 targets, in a game that saw Justin Fields attempt just 23 passes. 🤠Dallas is averaging over 39 pass attempts per game, and I’m initially drawn to Dak, Lamb, Ferguson and Tolbert. 🤠The Cowboys have been a friendly matchup to opposing backfields, already allowing games (total yards - TDs) of 180-4 to Alvin Kamara, 174-3 to Derrick Henry and 168-2 to the combination of Gibbs/Montgomery. 🪶With Bijan coming off 3 straight games of 19 or more opportunities he catches my eye in this spot. BRONCOS (18) 🐎AT RAVENS (27.25)🐦‍⬛ 🐦‍⬛Last week I highlighted that the Ravens had given up big games to almost every QB they’ve faced, and Jameis Winston didn’t disappoint in week 7. 🐦‍⬛If you exclude the game against the Bills, the other 7 QBs have averaged 331 passing yards and 2.6 touchdowns against this Ravens secondary. 🐎Bo Nix is coming off the best game of his career and is sub-$6k on DK. 🐎Courtland Sutton recorded his first 100 yard receiving game and is priced at $5,400. Seems pretty straightforward where I’ll be going this week. 🐎The matchup is much tougher for the Ravens as Denver has shown to be one of (if not the) best defense in the league. 🐦‍⬛Derrick Henry can hit in any matchup, but at $8,300 there feels like better spots to pay up on this slate. DOLPHINS (22)🐬 AT BILLS (28)🦬 🐬The Bills have been a friendly matchup to opposing backfields and De’Von Achane had success in this same matchup in week 2, recording 165 total yards and a TD. 🐬Both Derrick Henry and Breece Hall also eclipsed 160 yards against Buffalo which led to my initial interest in Achane. 🦬Through the air, no pass catcher (WR/TE) has exceeded 16 fantasy points against Buffalo outside of the NYJ. 🐬Tyreek Hill has two games above 22 fantasy points in 9 career games against Buffalo, and both of them came in the playoffs when he was a KC Chief. 🐬Hill's price has remained relatively low, and while he can break a slate any week, he doesn’t stand out initially here. 🦬Through the air for the Bills, the matchup isn’t great. The Dolphins have only allowed 3 pass catchers to exceed 62 yards on the season, and two of them came last week (Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.). SAINTS (25.25)🟡 AT PANTHERS (18.25)🐈‍⬛ 🐈‍⬛While the matchup looks good on paper for Hubbard, he’s yet to exceed 12 fantasy points the past 8 games Bryce Young has started, with only two games of more than 16 points in Young’s 17 career starts. 🟡The other side of the ball, however, is much more appealing as opposing backfields have had great success against the Panthers, including Kamara’s 110-1 performance when these teams matched up back in week 1. 🟡This game is also interesting through the air, as 9 WRs have already recorded games of 15 or more fantasy points against the Panthers. The Saints should have a very narrow distribution of targets due to a myriad of WR injuries. RAIDERS (19.5) ☠️AT BENGALS (27)🐯 🐯This is an interesting spot for Chase Brown, who has 15 or more opportunities in 4 of the past 5 games, with 5 TDs during that span. ☠️The Raiders have been generous to opposing backfields and this feels like a spot that will go under the radar for the field. ☠️Brock Bowers has 42 targets the past 4 weeks and gets a Bengals’ team that has struggled against opposing TEs this season. ☠️The field tends to like to pay down at the TE position, making this an intriguing spot to roster Bowers. 🐯Ja’Marr Chase is in play every week, and I expect him to carry moderate ownership this week. CHARGERS (22) ⚡️AT BROWNS (20.5)🟤 🟤While this spot won’t stand out for most of the field, I’m interested in Nick Chubb this week. Coming off 18 opportunities last week, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski noted that they were still ramping up Chubb’s workload. 🟤The Chargers just allowed James Conner and Alvin Kamara to each exceed 120 total yards the past two weeks, making Chubb interesting in a spot he’ll likely carry low ownership. ⚡️On the other side of the ball, Ladd McConkey is once again interesting at $5,600 as the Browns have allowed a WR to exceed 18 points in 5 of the past 6 weeks. 🟤As the deep threat, Cedric Tillman remains in play for me this week as the Chargers have already allowed 9 explosive passing plays of over 30 yards in just 7 games. ⚡️The only team not to post an explosive play against LA was the Bryce Young led Panthers back in week 2. COMMANDERS (23.25) ⛑️AT GIANTS (19.75)🔵 ⛑️The Giants have allowed an RB to surpass 100 yards in half their games this season, including 133 rushing yards to Brian Robinson when these teams met back in week 2. He’s initially interesting to me this week. 🔵For the Giants, Tyrone Tracy left the MNF game with a concussion after posting the best game of his young career. 🔵If he clears protocol, he’s an intriguing option as he appears to overtaken Devin Singletary for the RB1 role in NY and has surpassed 100 total yards in 3 of the past 4 weeks. ⛑️Through the air, Terry McLaurin’s chemistry continues to build with Jayden Daniels, but the Giants haven’t allowed a 100-yard WR all season and McLaurin’s price is now over $7k. 🔵On the other side of the ball, Malik Nabers is in a solid spot, as the Commanders have already allowed big WR games of 6-118-2 to Ja’Marr Chase, 9-132-0 to Zay Flowers as well as 10-127-1 to Nabers when these teams met earlier this season. PATRIOTS (17.25) 🟦AT TITANS (20.75)⚔️ ⚔️In the 3 games since the Titans week 5 bye, Calvin Ridley has seen 32 targets, and that high target share is likely to continue with Hopkins traded to KC last week. ⚔️The Patriots have allowed 4 WRs to surpass 18 DK points the past 3 weeks, keeping Ridley in the conversation for me this week at WR. ⚔️The Titans have only allowed 2 players to surpass 70 rushing or receiving yards all season. 🟦This is not the best spot to roster Patriots, especially if we’re likely to see Jacoby Brissett under center again for New England. BEARS (22.25) 🐻AT CARDINALS (22.25)🐦 🐻D’Andre Swift has seen 17 or more opportunities in every game since week 1 and the Cards have allowed James Cook, Gibbs, Montgomery, Brian Robinson, Achane, Mason, and Jacobs to go for at least 90 total yards against them. 🐻Coming off 4 straight games of 20 or more fantasy points, Swift is interesting at $6,400. 🐻This should be a good spot for Caleb Williams and the Bears pass catchers, but Williams only completed 10 passes last week against a middling Commanders’ secondary. 🏈Initially, there feels like better spots on this 12-game slate. 🐦My favorite Cardinals piece once again is Trey McBride, who has seen 35 targets the last 4 weeks since Arizona’s bye. 🐻The Bears have allowed TE outputs of 7-77 to Zach Ertz and 10-102 to Evan Engram their last two games. JAGUARS (N/A) 😼AT EAGLES (N/A)🦅 😼Tank Bigsby has really taken a step forward in his sophomore season, but the Eagles have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher and have only surrendered 1 TD to RBs all season. 😼Even if Etienne were to miss again, I don’t think I’ll get to Bigsby. 🦅Barkley is definitely in consideration as he’s averaging 21 touches a game this season, but it’s not as good a spot for Barkley as it would appear on paper as only Josh Jacobs (127 yards) and D’Andre Swift (91 yards) have rushed for over 64 yards against the Jags. 🦅This game is much more interesting through the air, and appears to be a great spot for Hurts and both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. 😼The Jags have allowed multiple monster WR games already this season, including 7-130-1 to Tyreek Hill and 12-151-1 to Nico Collins, while also allowing Alec Pierce and Jaylen Waddle to top 100 receiving yards. 😼Jax has also been a friendly sight for opposing QBs as Tua, Allen, Stroud, Flacco, Maye and Caleb Williams all exceeded 20 DK points against them with Allen, Flacco, and Caleb surpassing 29 DK points. 😼For the Jags, Evan Engram is my favorite piece. Parker Washington a strong value piece if either Brian Thomas or Gabe Davis were to miss. LIONS (26)🦁 AT PACKERS (22.5)🧀 🦁A strong matchup for the Lions backfield, especially if Jordan Love were to miss after exiting Sunday’s game with a groin injury, however the pricing on both Gibbs and Montgomery makes it tough to get excited about a split backfield. 🧀The Packers have already allowed Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, and Joe Mixon to each rush for over 100 yards with Aaron Jones also amassing 139 total yards. 🧀On paper, the matchup looks horrible for Josh Jacobs. However in the last 4 games, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, and Kenneth Walker have all exceeded 115 total yards against Detroit. 🧀If Love were to miss, Jacobs would still be in consideration for me despite a tough matchup. 🧀Through the air, WRs have done better than expected against Detroit but probably not a spot I’ll try to exploit if Malik Willis starts for GB. 🧀If Love plays, both Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed stand out. 🦁For Detroit, Sam LaPorta saw his highest usage of the season last week with Jameson Williams suspended. With Williams set to miss again, LaPorta is an interesting TE option at $4,800. RAMS (25.25) 🐑AT SEAHAWKS (23.5)🟢 🐑Kyren Williams has scored a TD in every game this season and has surpassed 100 total yards in 4 out his last 5 games. 🐑Kyren now faces a Seattle team who has already allowed games of (total yards - TDs) of 133-2 to James Cook, 143-1 to Bijan Robinson, 130-0 to Tyrone Tracy, 193-1 to the combination of Gibson/Rhamondre, and 158-3 to the combination of Gibbs/Montgomery. 🟢The Rams have also been a friendly matchup to opposing RBs and Kenneth Walker has also been more involved in the pass game this year, with 28 targets since returning from injury 5 weeks ago. 🐑Through the air, the Rams have allowed monster games of 11-175-3 to Jauan Jennings, 4-130-2 to Marvin Harrison Jr, 5-121-1 to Jameson Williams, and 8-115 to Justin Jefferson last week. 🟢If he suits up, I like this spot for DK Metcalf, who already has 3 games of 20+ fantasy points against this Sean McVay led Rams defense in his young career. 🐑On the other side of the ball, the matchup is also enticing for both Nacua and Kupp as the Seahawks have allowed three 100+ yard receiving games in their last 4 games (Drake London went for 17.3 FP in the one game without a 100-yard WR). The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: WAS, LAC, PHI, BUF, CLE, CHI and NYG That does it for this week. Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard in week 9. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

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Low-Owned. High-Ceiling. Contrarian Plays for Week 6:

Low Ownership. Massive Leverage. 10 Contrarian Plays for Week 8 RUNNING BACKS 1. SAQUON BARKLEY // 11% OK, OK, OK — I stuck my neck out on Saquon last week and it left me feeling like I dropped the soap in gen pop. But this really is the week. I mean… it’s gotta be, right? 2. RICO DOWDLE // 1% Dowdle ceded snaps to Chuba last week but still handled solid volume when on the field, and his receiving chops should come into play here. An angry Buffalo team off the bye is expected to control this game, which sets up perfectly for Dowdle’s passing-down role. I just wish he were priced more like a committee back — but that’s exactly why no one’s clicking him. Sometimes “mispriced” cuts both ways, and that’s where the leverage lives. 3. ISAIAH DAVIS & KYLE MONANGAI Breece Hall trade rumors are swirling, and the Jets might handle his ankle cautiously — opening a door for Isaiah Davis, who’s shown burst and competency in all phases. Meanwhile, Chicago clearly likes Kyle Monangai, giving him value touches in key spots. If D’Andre Swift isn’t right or exits early, Monangai could become that random cheap back you needed. Two low-cost darts, each with a real path to mattering. WIDE RECEIVER 4. DARNELL MOONEY // 2% Bijan Robinson and Drake London will be two of the highest-owned players on this slate, so clearly we expect Atlanta to get theirs against Miami’s beatable defense. Mooney’s the clean leverage off that chalk — cheap, fast, and capable of stealing touchdown equity. Or you can lean all the way in, stack the whole damn thing, and hope for a fifty-burger that makes everyone say, “Shit, could’ve just played all Falcons.” 5. RASHID SHAHEED // 6% We love this archetype, but Rashid Shaheed has only posted one score this year we really needed. I still believe. A 20.7% target share is solid considering how deep his looks tend to be, and there should be plenty of volume in this one. Volatile? Always. But that’s why we roster him — for the one play that changes everything. 6. ROME ODUNZE // 6% Whether or not we get Lamar Jackson, I expect Baltimore to score points — which means Chicago will have to keep pace. Odunze feels due for a “don’t forget about me” game, and this sets up nicely. If the Ravens push, his volume and talent can do the rest. 7. DARIUS SLAYTON // 1% Slayton returns to a Giants team desperate for someone — anyone — to make plays for rookie Jaxson Dart against an Eagles squad that should be plenty pissed after losing to these same Giants two weeks ago. Wan’Dale Robinson should handle most of the short-area stuff, but if things get real and New York needs to strike fast, Slayton’s the one they’ll call. Often labeled a “deep aDOT, low-volume” type, he could be counted on for more in his return. TIGHT END 8. ISAIAH LIKELY // 5% Cheap. Talented. On the field a ton. Surrounded by expensive, chalky teammates. Leverage. Did I mention the $2,600 part? If Tyler Huntley starts, Likely still profiles well — Huntley’s history with tight ends keeps the path to ceiling alive. 9. COLSTON LOVELAND // 3% A leap of faith considering he hasn’t seen more than four targets since facing the Indiana Hoosiers, but Cole Kmet is out and D.J. Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus aren’t exactly striking fear into anyone. Also, why didn’t my parents name me Olamide? It’s a Nigerian name meaning “my wealth has arrived.” Good for him. Loveland’s turn. 10. EVAN ENGRAM // 2% Bo Nix will be popular, but double-stacking him with Engram and frequent red-zone target Troy Franklin makes those builds plenty unique. Engram’s simming well, priced right, and gives chalk a path to differentiation. Sims seem to like this, so there’s that.

NFL DFS WEEK 14! 🏈A first look at the upcoming 11-game slate! RAMS 🐏 at RAVENS 🟣 🟣Interesting spot for Lamar, as the Rams have not only allowed multiple 300 yard passing games, but have also allowed rushing touchdowns to 5 different QBs. 🐏On the other side of the ball, Stafford has yet to put up a 4X multiplier of his current salary, and is now on the road against arguably the leagues best defense. Probably a pass for me. 🐏On the ground, Kyren is interesting as he continues to be one of the few bell cow backs and despite a difficult matchup should see 20+ opportunities again this week. 🟣Lamar can easily be paired with OBJ or Isaiah Likely who are both in the $3k pricing tier this week. 🐏For the Rams, Cooper Kupp is the cheapest he’s been all season and has 7 or more targets in 6 of 8 games this season, but likely not a spot I’ll prioritize this week. BUCCANEERS 🦜 at FALCONS 🐦‍⬛ 🐦‍⬛This spot could be interesting for Desmond Ridder. Against teams like Washington, Houston, Tennessee and Detroit, Atlanta did not fight the path of least resistance, and threw the ball more. Ridder has 3 games above 22 DK points and this sets up as a spot where that is potential. 🦜For the Bucs, Baker Mayfield is more consistent, but is on the road, more expensive and has not eclipsed 25 DK points since 2021. 🐦‍⬛On the ground, Bijan Robinson’s usage has been strong lately, but with the Buccaneers run funnel tendencies, I think there are better spots to focus this week. 🐦‍⬛Another thing that makes Ridder intriguing this week is that his primary pass catchers - Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith are all cheap - $4,600 or less. LIONS 🦁 at BEARS 🐻 🏈It’s Early in the week but both QBs are intriguing in this one, which potentially means it’s a spot I’ll be considering for game stacks. 🦁Montgomery is mildly interesting with his role increasing each week since returning from injury 4 weeks ago. 🐻Thru the air, DJ Moore has loved having Justin Fields back as he’s seen 22 targets the past two weeks. At $6,500, he caught my eye this week in a matchup with the Lions mediocre secondary. COLTS 🐎 at BENGALS 🐅 🐅 Another intriguing spot for a pay down QB after Brownings MNF performance. 🐅 On the other side of the ball, Gardner Minshew is also interesting with multiple 300 yard games this season, and Cincinnati has been very friendly to opposing QBs. 🐎On the ground, Zack Moss is more interesting this week than last to me. The matchup is better and he’s coming off 50% ownership, and putting up his worst score of the season as a starter. He still saw 22 opportunities and the Bengals are not an imposing run defense. 🐅Alpha WR Ja’Marr Chase is the cheapest he’s been all season coming off an 11-149-1 game on MNF. He’s the go to option for Browning, and I expect him to be somewhat popular this week. JAGUARS 😼 at BROWNS 🐶 😼 If Lawrence is able to play it’s tough to ignore Zay Jones and Evan Engram at their prices with Christian Kirk likely to miss at least this week. 🐶On the other side of the ball Amari Cooper suffered a concussion last week against the Rams, and if he’s unable to suit up, it makes Elijah Moore and David Njoku very appealing at their prices. PANTHERS 🐈 at SAINTS ⚜️ ⚜️Opponents tend to focus on the run against the Panthers so Olave at $7k is not catching my eye initially. 🤷‍♂️First thought is this might be game I have low exposure to. TEXANS 🔴 at JETS ✈️ 🔴At $7,600, it’s just not a spot I’ll be prioritizing Stroud. ✈️On the ground, Breece Hall continues to be heavily involved, and has five or more receptions in five of his past seven games. 🔴This feels like a great spot for Nico Collins. The Jets have given up six 100 yard receiving games this season, despite elite corner Sauce Gardner. VIKINGS 🟡 at RAIDERS 🏴‍☠️ 🟡The theme to week however appears to be elite WRs are the cheapest they’ve been all year, and that continues with Davante Adams. Adams is averaging 10 targets a game and the Vikings have given up big receiving games to alpha WRs. Hard to ignore his upside in this spot. SEAHAWKS 🟢 at NINERS ⛏️ ⛏️CMC went for 139 yards and 2 TDs when these teams met just two weeks ago. 🏈The secondaries have been the weak spot for both defenses which makes Lockett, Metcalf, Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle all interesting this week. None of them had big games when these teams met the first time, which initially leads me to think that ownership will be kept down. BILLS 🐂 at CHIEFS 🔥 🔥 Interesting spot for Isiah Pacheco, who has seen 20 or more opportunities in each game since the Chiefs week 10 bye. 🏈 There are elite players on both sides of the ball (specifically Diggs and Kelce) that can hit in any matchup. BRONCOS 🐴at CHARGERS ⚡️ 🏈 Surprisingly, I’m more interested in Russ over Herbert this week, but neither is particularly appealing. 🏈Ekeler is the lowest price he’s been all season and Javonte Williams is averaging 20 opportunities a game since the Broncos week 9 bye. As a reminder, full Edge write ups will be live on the site on Thursday! @wgabelman

DFS Chalk :: Week 4 Current Projection for 20%+ Ownership DRAFTKINGS ▫️ DIONTAE JOHNSON (31%) ▫️ JORDAN MASON (28%) ▫️ NICO COLLINS (27%) ▫️ NAJEE HARRIS (26%) ▫️ BIJAN ROBINSON (24%) ▫️ KYREN WILLIAMS (20%) ▫️ BRIAN ROBINSON JR. (20%) ▫️ RASHEE RICE (20%) ▫️ JAYDEN DANIELS (20%) --- FANDUEL ▫️ BROCK BOWERS (32%) ▫️ NICO COLLINS (31%) ▫️ DIONTAE JOHNSON (29%) ▫️ BREECE HALL (29%) ▫️ NAJEE HARRIS (28%) ▫️ KYREN WILLIAMS (26%) ▫️ BIJAN ROBINSON (22%) ▫️ BRIAN ROBINSON (20%) Who do you think is bad chalk?

NFL DFS: WEEK 12 A first look at the 10-game main slate through the lens of StatATL CHIEFS (26.75) 🟥AT PANTHERS (15.75)🐈‍⬛ 🟥On paper, this should be a great spot for Kareem Hunt as the Panthers have been gashed by opposing RBs, and Hunt is averaging 22 touches a game this season. 🟥The potential news of Isiah Pacheco’s impending activation off IR throws a bit of wrench into this, but Hunt is only $5,700 and Pacheco will likely be eased in. 🟥I’m not sure I understand why Hunt is $1,000 less this week when basically getting the nut matchup, but maybe the interns were doing the pricing this week at DK. 🟥The arial matchup is also beatable for KC, and at $5,400 DeAndre Hopkins is interesting as the Panthers allowed a WR to put up at least 16.2 DK points (a 3x salary score) in each of the first eight games of the year before holding the Olave and Shaheed-less Saints and Giants under that number the past two weeks. 🐈‍⬛The matchup is tough across the board for the Panthers and is likely one I’ll avoid altogether. VIKINGS (21.25) 🪓AT BEARS (17.75)🐻 🪓Initially, I think this is a much better spot than it appears for Justin Jefferson. 🐻While the Bears have been stingy against opposing WRs, I think you must do a deeper dive into who they’ve played - the Titans with Will Levis, the Colts with bad Anthony Richardson, the Rams without Nacua or Kupp, the Panthers, the Jaguars, the Cardinals, and the Patriots. 🐻Their other three opponents, the Texans, Commanders, and Packers are all much more dynamic offenses with better QBs, and each had a WR (Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, and Christian Watson) exceed 125 receiving yards. 🪓Jefferson is also the least expensive he’s been all year. 🏈The ground game doesn’t stand out for either team as both D'Andre Swift and Aaron Jones have seen their respective backups (Cam Akers and Roschon Johnson) eating into their workloads. 🐻For Chicago, rookie Rome Odunze is the most intriguing at $4,800 as his 31% target share last week was the first time a wideout has eclipsed 30% thus far for the Bears and the Vikings have already allowed 6 WRs to surpass 100 receiving yards against them this season. TITANS (16.25) ⚔️AT TEXANS (24.75)🐂 🐂It’s great to have Nico Collins back in the fold, but the Titans have been stingy to opposing WRs. ⚔️Outside of Keon Coleman, who had a 57-yard reception on a broken play, no other pass catcher (WR or TE) has exceeded 81 receiving yards against the Titans this year, which includes games against Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Reed, and Tyreek Hill. 🐂This tempers my excitement around both Collins and Tank Dell at their elevated prices. 🐂Despite his robust role this year, the ground matchup is also a difficult one for Joe Mixon. Excluding Jahmyr Gibbs, who broke off a 70-yard TD run, no RB has exceeded 62 yards rushing against the Titans. ⚔️On the other side of the ball, Calvin Ridley continues to be intriguing as he’s seeing a lot of opportunities since the departure of Hopkins (38 targets the past 4 weeks) and had a 51-yard TD called back last week due to penalty. ⚔️I think the field would have a lot more interest in Ridley at $5,700 had that score counted and his recent box scores looked like 26.6, 12.3, 25.4 and 21.9. LIONS (29) 🦁AT COLTS (21.5)🐴 🦁This stands out as a strong spot for Jared Goff as the Colts have allowed Caleb Williams, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold to all pass for at least 280 yards against them (only holding Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley, Aaron Rodgers, and Will Levis in check). 🦁Goff is coming off a 412-4 game and his confidence should be high. 🦁Several TEs have gashed Indy, most notably Cole Kmet (10-97-1) and Jonnu Smith (7-96-1), and Sam LaPorta would be intriguing at just $4,300 if he were to return from his shoulder injury that kept him out last week. 🦁The matchup is also above average for the Detroit backfield, but with Gibbs and Montgomery splitting work, it’s hard to get excited about their workload at elevated prices as they’ve each only seen 20 or more touches twice this season. 🐴For the Colts, this is an intriguing spot for both Anthony Richardson and Josh Downs. Multiple QBs have thrown for 300 yards against the Lions and all four QBs who had at least 4 rushing attempts (Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield) all rushed for 29 yards or more with half putting up a rushing TD. 🐴Through the air, the Lions have allowed an opposing WR to eclipse 100 receiving yards in half their games this year and Josh Downs has seen 9 or more targets in 2/3 of his games this season. In what I expect to be a trailing game script for Indy, Downs is my favorite Colt. PATRIOTS (19.5) 🟦AT DOLPHINS (26.5)🐬 🟦Drake Maye has surpassed 18 DK points in 4 of the 5 games where he played at least half the game and the two opposing QBs that attempted more than two rushes against the Dolphins (Richardson and Kyler) amassed 75 yards between them. 🟦While the Dolphins haven’t given up any monster games against them this season, both Kyler Murray and Josh Allen had 25+ DK points against MIA, and I’m interested in Maye again this week. 🟦Both Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte have played over 80% of the offense snaps each of the past 6 weeks and remain at $4k or less. 🐬On the Miami side of the ball, De’Von Achane stands out here as averaging 19 opportunities a game since the Dolphins week 5 bye and the Patriots have allowed Mason, Mixon, Bigsby, and Pollard all to rush for over 100 yards against them this season. 🐬When these teams met in week 5, Achane left with a concussion in the first quarter and even with Tyler Huntley at the helm, Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright combined for 184 total yards. 🐬Tyreek Hill is also interesting as all of Cooper Kupp, Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, Puka Nacua, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all surpassed 100 yards while several other WRs (Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, and Brian Thomas) all exceeded 18 DK points against New England. BUCCANEERS (23.5) 🏴‍☠️AT GIANTS (18)🔵 🔵Tyrone Tracy stands out here in a spot where I think Tommy DeVito will draw ownership at $4k. 🏴‍☠️Tampa Bay has allowed games of 100+ total yards to Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Tracy has seen 17 or more touches in 5 of 6 games. 🔵Through the air, Malik Nabers is also intriguing as he’s averaging 12 targets a game and the Buc’s have allowed 20+ point fantasy games to 8 pass catchers already this season. 🏴‍☠️On the Tampa side of the ball, Bucky Irving is interesting at just $5,300 as the Giants have allowed an opposing RB to exceed 130 total yards in 3 of the past 4 games and Ekeler went for 81 yards and a TD on 14 touches in the outlier game during that span. 🏴‍☠️Mike Evans is also expected back for TB but doesn’t stand out as no pass catcher (TE or WR) has hit 100 yards against the Giants yet this season and only Amari Cooper surpassed 21 DK points (a 3x score of Evans $7k price tag) and it took 12 targets and 2 TDs to do so. COWBOYS (17.5) 🤠AT COMMANDERS (27.5)⛑️ ⛑️The spot initially stands out for both Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson. ⛑️To opposing QBs, the Cowboys have surrendered games of 56 yards rushing and 2 TDs to Jalen Hurts, 87 yards rushing and a TD to Lamar Jackson, and 56 yards rushing and a TD to Brock Purdy, so this presents a strong opportunity for Daniels to utilize his legs. ⛑️In the run game, the Cowboys have allowed some massive games to opposing RBs, including games of (total yards - TDs) of 180-4 to Alvin Kamara, 174-2 to Derrick Henry, 153-3 to Joe Mixon and 171-2 to the combination of Gibbs/Montgomery. At just $5,600, Brian Robinson stands out as one of the best values on the slate. 🤠For the Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb continues to get peppered with targets, with 51 targets in the past 4 games since Dallas’ week 7 bye. 🤠Lamb's price is down to $7,300 and the Commanders have already allowed multiple explosive games this year, most notably game lines of 10-127-1 to Malik Nabers, 6-118-2 to Ja’Marr Chase, and 9-132 to Zay Flowers. BRONCOS (23.25) 🐎AT RAIDERS (17.75)☠️ 🐎The ground game stands out here for Denver as J.K. Dobbins, Chuba Hubbard, Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, and Chase Brown all amassed over 110 yards against LV already this season, with all but Javonte Williams scoring at least once. 🐎However, there is so much uncertainty to how the workload will be distributed, it feels like a spot I will avoid. 🐎The volume has been very strong for Courtland Sutton, and while the matchup is tough on paper, Travis Kelce (10-90-1), Mike Gesicki (5-100-2), and Jonnu Smith (6-101-2) have all had strong games against LV the past 3 weeks. At $5,800 he’s initially interesting. ☠️On the Raiders side of the ball, Brock Bowers has been incredible this year. He’s seen double digits targets in 4 of his past 6 games (including 16 last week) and despite the tough matchup produced 23.7 DK points when these teams met back in week 5 in Denver. 49ERS (22.5) ⛏️AT PACKERS (25)🧀 ⛏️While I’m not sure it’ll be a spot that catches most DFS players eyes, SF has allowed 5 WRs to put up games of 24 or more DK points, including two such instances (10-110 to JSN and 13-146-2 to Lamb) the last 3 weeks. 🧀The challenge is identifying who that might be as Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks and TE Tucker Kraft all have games with over 19 fantasy points, however only Reed has done it more than once (3 times). 🧀The matchup is middling for Josh Jacobs and not a spot that initially catches my eye. ⛏️On the other side of the ball, CMC has seen opportunity counts of 20 and 24 in his two games this season and has completely taken over the SF backfield, with Mason, Guerendo, and Juszczyk only combining for 5 total touches since CMC’s return. 🧀Through 10 games, the Packers have allowed Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones, and Joe Mixon to surpass 100 yards against them. ⛏️The 49ers are last in the NFC West and despite this only being week 12, this feels like a must win game for the Niners, and I would be surprised if McCaffrey doesn’t see ~25 opportunities this week. ⛏️The best value in this game however is reserved for Jauan Jennings, who despite back-to-back games of 11 targets and his role greatly expand since Brandon Aiyuk’s season ending injury, is still only $5,600. ⛏️I would expect Jennings to be one of the highest owned WRs on the slate this week. CARDINALS (23.75) 🐦AT SEAHAWKS (23.75)🟢 🟢A big game in the NFC West, the matchup for Kenneth Walker is what stands out upon first look. 🐦The Cards have allowed James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Brian Robinson and De’Von Achane all to account for over 100 yards against them. 🐦All but James Cook, also added at least one TD as well, while Jeremy McNichols and Raheem Mostert also have games with multiple scores against AZ. 🟢Walker is averaging over 18 touches a game and I’d expect him to see a healthy workload here. 🟢Through the air, Geno Smith is leading the league in pass attempts per game, averaging over 37, and Arizona presents an above average matchup. 🟢DK Metcalf and JSN are initially interesting as well as both are averaging over 8.5 targets a game this season. 🐦On the other side of the ball, the matchup stands out for James Conner, who is averaging 19 opportunities a game this season, and Seattle has allowed all of CMC, Williams, Cook, Bijan, Guerendo, Tracy, Gibson, and Stevenson to account for 90 or more yards in games against them this season. The combination of Gibbs/Montgomery also totaled 158 yards on 27 touches. 🟢Pass catchers have also found success against Seattle with at least one player (George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Demarcus Robinson, Cooper Kupp, Khalil Shakir, Deebo Samuel, and Darius Slayton) all having games of 20+ DK points against the Seahawks in each of their past 6 games. 🐦Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison are both of interest here, and this game, along with the Lions and Colts, is initially one of my favorites to potentially build around. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: DET, HOU, MIN, TB, and DEN That does it for me this week. Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard here in week 12. NFL DFS First Look is created by @wgabelman

NFL Week 10 Cheat Sheet 🔥 🔖Bookmark this post for Sunday Morning -6 Defenses -3 Tight End Plays -5 Value Plays Under 5k -9 Contrarian Plays -The Chalk Build 6 Defenses 1. Seahawks 2. Lions 3. Texans 4. Browns 5. Panthers 6. Cardinals nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… 4 Tight End Plays 1. George Kittle 2. Hunter Henry 3. David Njoku 4. Colston Loveland nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… 7 Value Plays Under 5.7k 1. J.J. MCCARTHY ($4,900) 2. TREVEYON HENDERSON ($5,600) 3. TEZ JOHNSON ($4,500) 4. JAUAN JENNINGS ($4,300) 5. MARVIN HARRISON JR. ($5,300) 6. KHALIL SHAKIR ($5,100) 7. JUWAN JOHNSON ($3,700) nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… 9 Contrarian Plays 1. JAHMYR GIBBS // 11% 2. D’ANDRE SWIFT // 6% 3. KENNETH WALKER // 5% 4. NICO COLLINS // 7% 5. DAVANTE ADAMS // 5% 6. DYAMI BROWN // 4% 7. JUWAN JOHNSON // 4% 8. COLSTON LOVELAND // 3% 9. GREG DULCICH // 1% nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1… The Chalk Build RB: Dowdle/CMC/Achane WR: JSN/Puka/Zay/ARSB TE: McBride/Kittle nitter.app/oneweekseason/status/1…

NFL DFS: WEEK 11 A first look at the robust 11-game main slate through the lens of StatATL PACKERS (23.5) 🧀AT BEARS (17.5)🐻 🧀On paper, this is not a great spot for Jordan Love as only one QB (Jayden Daniels) has thrown for more than 260 yards, and only one QB (Trevor Lawrence) has accounted for more than 1 TD against the Bears. 🏈On the ground, the matchup is middling for both Jacobs and Swift, with neither standing out initially. 🧀Jacobs is averaging less than 3 targets a game, which makes it hard to get excited about his $7k price tag and he only has one game this season with more than 21 DK points (aka even just a 3x salary multiplier). 🐻Through the air, Nico Collins is the only WR to post a 25-point game against Chicago, with Gabe Davis’ effort of 21 DK points, which included 2 TDs the only other score above 20. 🐻With how inept the Bears have looked on offense lately, this is probably a game I’ll avoid entirely. JAGUARS (17) 😼AT LIONS (30)🦁 😼My first thought on this game is if Mac Jones is under center again, I’ll be drawn to the Lions defense as he struggled mightily last week at home against Minnesota. 🦁Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs each have 8 TDs this season, but Montgomery is more interesting here as this is likely a game the Lions control throughout. 🦁Montgomery has only seen 15 or more touches four times this season, so at $6,500, I’m probably most interested in him played together with the Lions D in a game Detroit just curb stomps Jacksonville. 🦁Through the air, Goff hasn’t put up a 4x salary score once this season, despite 3 games where the Lions scored 42 or more points. It doesn’t seem like he has 30-point upside. 🦁Assuming he is healthy come Sunday, the player that stands out the most paper is Sam LaPorta at $4,300 as the Jaguars have allowed an opposing TE to eclipse 70 receiving yards in each of the past 4 games. RAIDERS (18.5) ☠️AT DOLPHINS (26)🐬 🐬The ground game stands out here for De’Von Achane as J.K. Dobbins, Chuba Hubbard, Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, and Chase Brown all amassed over 110 yards, with all but Javonte Williams scoring at least once. 🏈Through the air, the matchup is tough for both LV and MIA, and while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both explosive players, only Diontae Johnson has gone for 100 yards receiving against the Raiders. ☠️Outside of Achane, this is not a game environment that is catching my eye, and the only piece for Las Vegas that is of initial interest is Brock Bowers, who has seen 49 targets over the past 5 weeks. RAMS (24.5) 🐑AT PATRIOTS (19.5)🟦 🟦When I saw this matchup, my first thought was to see what Drake Maye’s DK price was this week. 🟦Spoiler alert, Maye is $5,600, and facing the Rams who will be traveling cross country on a short week for a 10am pacific start. 🐑I definitely have some initial interest here as the Rams allowed both mobile QBs they’ve faced this season, Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy, to each throw for 260+ yards, rush for 40+, and pass for 3 TDs. 🐑On the ground, the matchup sets up well for Kyren Williams, who is averaging 22 touches a game and has 10 touchdowns on the season. 🟦Meanwhile, the Patriots have allowed Tony Pollard, Tank Bigsby, Joe Mixon, and Jordan Mason each to rush for over 100 yards against them already this season. 🐑Both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are also interesting in a middle of the road matchup, but neither stands out here, likely keeping their ownership low. BROWNS (21.75) 🟤AT SAINTS (22.75)🟡 🟡I’ll be curious to see how the field handles Alvin Kamara this week, as the Browns haven’t allowed an RB to rush for over 85 yards. 🟤Devin Singletary’s 108 total yards on 20 touches has been the best game against the Browns, despite facing strong rushing attacks like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and J.K. Dobbins. 🟡Kamara’s volume is tremendous, but the matchup is tougher than it appears, and Kamara is the most expensive he’s been all season. 🟤The matchup on the other side of the ball for Nick Chubb, however, stands out as one of the best on the slate. 🟤Chubb has seen opportunity counts of 14, 18, and 16 in his three games after missing a full year, and the Saints have allowed 6 different RBs to amass over 100 and a TD against them this season. 🟤The matchup is also intriguing for Jameis Winston as the Saints have allowed Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins to all exceed 300 total yards against them this season, and Winston has 40+ pass attempts in both his starts this season. 🟤Cedric Tillman, who has 32 targets the past 3 weeks and is $5,300, is my favorite stacking partner with Winston. RAVENS (25.5) 🐦‍⬛AT STEELERS (22.5)🟨 🐦‍⬛I have written up targeting the Ravens secondary most of the year and that won’t stop this week. 🟨Through ten games, opposing QBs are **averaging** 314 yards, and 2.3 total TDs a game against BAL, with an average fantasy score of 25 DK points. I’ll be firing up Russell Wilson this week at $5,900. 🐦‍⬛Opposing WR1’s have absolutely smashed the Ravens as well this season, again **averaging** a line of 6.6-111-1.2 for 27 DK points. 🐦‍⬛While that does include Ja’Marr Chase’s monster performance last week, it also includes Mike Evans’ 1 catch game where he was injured in the first quarter. 🟨Pickens has seen his price rise to $7k but has scored 20 or more DK points in 3 of his last 6 games, and now gets his best on paper matchup of the year. 🟨I expect the Steelers to be passing at a higher rate than normal as the matchup is a nightmare for Najee Harris as the Ravens have yet to allow a 60-yard rushing game this year. 🐦‍⬛The ground matchup doesn't stand out for BAL either, as Tyrone Tracy is the only RB to rush for over 88 yards against PIT, despite also facing Bijan, Dobbins, Breece Hall, and Jonathan Taylor. It’s a matchup Henry can succeed in, but certainly doesn’t stand out on paper. 🐦‍⬛Through the air, the Steelers have been susceptible to splash plays as both Darius Slayton and Terry McLaurin had over 100 yards receiving against them the past two weeks, leading me to some interest in Zay Flowers. VIKINGS (22.75) 🪓AT TITANS (16.75) ⚔️ 🪓The ground matchup is difficult for Aaron Jones as outside of Jahmyr Gibbs, who broke off a 70-yard TD run, no RB has exceeded 62 yards rushing against the Titans. ⚔️Tony Pollard is slightly more appealing, as he’s seen a tremendous workload of at least 20 touches in 5 of the past 6 games and the Vikings have allowed Jordan Mason, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Kyren Williams all to amass over 100 yards and a TD against them, which are the only three backs who saw 16+ touches against MIN. ⚔️There is certainly risk as the Titans could get blown out, but I think Pollard will carry low ownership this week and could be a sneaky play if Tennessee keeps the game competitive. ⚔️The matchup is also interesting for Calvin Ridley who has seen 49 targets over the past 5 games and has become the primary target with Hopkins’ departure. 🪓The Vikings have allowed Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Reed, and Deebo Samuel all to exceed 100 yards against them this season. 🏈Through the air, not a spot that stands out for either QB - Tennessee has only allowed Josh Allen to surpass 206 passing yards this season. ⚔️The Titans have also been stingy to opposing WRs as outside of Keon Coleman, who had a 57-yard reception on a broken play, no other pass catcher (WR or TE) has exceeded 67 receiving yards against the Titans this year. 🪓As such, my initial interest in Jefferson or Addison is tempered. COLTS (20) 🐴 AT JETS (24) ✈️ 🐴From the Colts side of the ball, Joe Flacco will be under center again, which leads me to initial interest in Josh Downs, who has seen 9 or more targets in 6 of his past 7 games. 🐴The matchup is a difficult one, but both George Pickens and Tank Dell each exceeded 100 receiving yards in the past 4 weeks against the Jets. ✈️For the Jets, the matchup sets up well for all their key skill position players – Rodgers, Breece Hall, Adams, and Garrett Wilson. 🐴The Colts have allowed 50% of the opposing QBs to account for at least 300 yards and the QBs they’ve kept under that mark were Tyler Huntley, Will Levis, Malik Willis and C.J. Stroud (who threw for 285 yards). ✈️Rodgers is averaging 35 pass attempts a game, and at $5,500, he’s intriguing. ✈️Both Adams and Wilson have strong on paper matchups as Nico Collins, Rome Odunze, George Pickens, Brian Thomas, and Justin Jefferson all went for over 100 receiving yards against the Colts. ✈️Adams has seen 30 targets in his three games with the Jets, with his targets increasing every game as he gets more familiar with the playbook. FALCONS (21) 🪶AT BRONCOS (23)🐎 🪶On the ground, the matchup is middling for Bijan Robinson. He's seeing elite usage lately, but no RB has put up a 4x (their salary) score against DEN yet this season, despite facing Henry, Kamara, Dobbins, Hall, Najee, Hubbard, Hunt, and Walker already this season. 🪶Bijan's utilization and involvement in the pass game certainly keeps him in the conversation, but at $7,800 I think there are better pay up options at the position. 🪶Outside of Zay Flowers, (who went for 127 yards and 2 TDs), no other WR has exceeded 6 catches or 77 yards, which makes London and Mooney less appealing this week. 🐎On the other side of the ball, there are some intriguing options, specifically Courtland Sutton and rookie RB Audric Estime. 🐎Through the air, the matchup sets up well for Sutton, who has quietly seen 30 targets the past 3 weeks, scoring 19 or more DK points in each game. 🪶There have been 10 WRs that saw 7 or more targets against the Falcons this season, and all but two produced at least 14.5 DK points. 🪶This doesn’t include other strong performances like MVS’s 3-109-2 game last week or Cade Otton’s 9-81-2 in week 8. 🐎On the ground, the matchup is middling, but Estime is just $4,500 and saw 14 of the 17 RB touches last week. 🐎Coach Sean Peyton alluded to him getting more opportunity and thus he presents a strong value this week. SEAHAWKS (21.5) 🟢AT 49ERS (28)⛏️ ⛏️Christian McCaffrey made is 2024 debut last week and saw 20 opportunities. Despite his time away, he wasn’t limited in terms of usage or production, amassing over 100 total yards. 🟢Seattle has been gashed on the ground, allowing 99 or more rushing yards to Tyrone Tracy, Isaac Guerendo, Bijan Robinson, and James Cook over the past 5 games. ⛏️Initially, CMC is my favorite play of the slate. ⛏️Through the air for SF, the matchup is also inviting for both Brock Purdy and the Niners pass catchers. 🟢Six pass catchers have put up 20 or more DK points against SEA the past 5 games, and that doesn’t include the 18.3 score from Drake London or 18.0 from Keon Coleman during that same stretch. 🟢Nothing really stands out on the Seattle side, but Metcalf or JSN would have some interest if building game stacks around this game. CHIEFS (22) 🟥 AT BILLS (24) 🦬 🦬This is an average spot for Josh Allen, as the Chiefs have yet to allow a QB to pass for 275 yards against them, despite facing Lamar, Burrow, Cousins, Herbert, Purdy, and Baker Mayfield already this season. 🦬The ground matchup is a nightmare for James Cook as no RB has rushed for 60 yards against the Chiefs or even accounted for 80 total yards against them this season. 🦬The matchup through the air isn’t great for Buffalo either as the Chiefs haven’t allowed an opposing WR to post a 20-point DK game yet this season. 🦬They’ve been most vulnerable to the TE position, allowing games of 9-111-2 to Isaiah Likely, 7-91 to Mike Gesicki, 6-92 to George Kittle, and 8-77 to Cade Otton. Dawson Knox, if Kincaid is unable to go, is initially interesting. 🟥On the KC side of the ball, the best matchup is the Chiefs backfield, as JT, De’Von Achane (twice), Breece Hall, and Derrick Henry all amassed over 120 total yards against this Buffalo team. At $6,700, Kareem Hunt is initially interesting. 🟥Travis Kelce has seen 40 targets the past 3 games, and at $6,300 is a better opportunity count than WRs at the same price point. The DST units that stood out to me upon first pass were: DET, MIN, GB and DEN Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard in week 11.

🚨 DFS Chalk :: Week 3 Current Projection for 15%+ Ownership DRAFTKINGS ▫️JORDAN MASON (31%) ▫️KENNETH WALKER III (30%) ▫️CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (28%) ▫️JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA (24%) ▫️TREY MCBRIDE (22%) ▫️BIJAN ROBINSON (22%) ▫️ROME ODUNZE (19%) ▫️JONATHAN TAYLOR (18%) ▫️CEEDEE LAMB (18%) ▫️PUKA NACUA (17%) ▫️JAKOBI MEYERS (15%) FANDUEL ▫️JORDAN MASON (36%) ▫️KENNETH WALKER III (30%) ▫️CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (28%) ▫️TREY MCBRIDE (24%) ▫️JONATHAN TAYLOR (20%) ▫️CEEDEE LAMB (19%) ▫️BIJAN ROBINSON (19%) ▫️BUCKY IRVING (18%) ▫️SAQUON BARKLEY (17%) ▫️ROME ODUNZE (16%) ▫️JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA (16%) ▫️TONY POLLARD (16%) ▫️PUKA NACUA (15%)

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 12:

JM's Journal Early week practice builds help sort out the slate. The Build👇 QB: Bryce Young RB: 1 :: Dowdle 2a :: Javonte // Judkins 2b :: Kyren // Rachaad 3 :: Etienne (but with EV added for the fact that he’ll almost certainly be low-owned) I’d be fine rearranging/ranking those middle four guys in any way you want. Lots of solid running back options, and for the third consecutive week, it feels like we have a good shot at seeing a decent number of solid to excellent scores from the position. WR: Puka + JSN ...or Puka + CMC, or JSN + CMC if looking for CMC exposure at RB And then just figuring out "whatever I need to do" to fill in the rest... Given the way this slate is shaping up, I think this is a massively +EV approach — but yeah, there’s real risk in the Bryce Young side of that. As always, trying to avoid getting locked into one way of thinking too early. These builds have helped me understand what the slate offers — but now I’m looking to explore what else might be out there. QB thoughts: Matthew Stafford is a bet on a competitive Rams/Ravens game — and with the Ravens' offense + past Cooper Rush performance, that’s possible… ...but, it takes a bit of a leap to see the Ravens pushing enough for Stafford to hit a third elite game in a row. I lean "No" on Stafford for tighter builds, but if I were playing him, I’d want a Ravens bring-back or two. Cooper Rush is technically viable, but betting on him means betting on a career-first tourney-worthy score against a good defense. I’ll probably leave that one alone in tighter builds. Dak is playing at an MVP level, and while a matchup vs the Panthers doesn’t scream ceiling, we said the same about the Giants and Jets — and he dropped 26.1 and 28.3 DK points in those games. View JM's Journal weekly on The Scroll at @oneweekseason

🚨FIRST LOOK DFS CHALK :: WEEK 5 Currently Projecting for 15%+ Ownership DRAFTKINGS ▫️DE'VON ACHANE (30%) ▫️JONATHAN TAYLOR (26%) ▫️JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA (26%) ▫️BREECE HALL (24%) ▫️OMARION HAMPTON (22%) ▫️TREY MCBRIDE (21%) ▫️RACHAAD WHITE (21%) ▫️JAHMYR GIBBS (21%) ▫️GARRETT WILSON (21%) ▫️RICO DOWDLE (19%) ▫️SAINTS DST (19%) ▫️TYLER WARREN (18%) ▫️AMON-RA ST. BROWN (17%) ▫️QUENTIN JOHNSTON (17%) ▫️GEORGE PICKENS (15%) ▫️MICHAEL PITTMAN JR. (15%) ▫️JUSTIN FIELDS (15%) FANDUEL ▫️DE'VON ACHANE (35%) ▫️JONATHAN TAYLOR (28%) ▫️OMARION HAMPTON (23%) ▫️DEEBO SAMUEL (23%) ▫️RICO DOWDLE (21%) ▫️RACHAAD WHITE (20%) ▫️JAHMYR GIBBS (20%) ▫️GEORGE PICKENS (20%) ▫️BREECE HALL (19%) ▫️JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA (19%) ▫️CAM SKATTEBO (19%) ▫️SAQUON BARKLEY (17%) ▫️JAYLEN WADDLE (17%) ▫️TYLER WARREN (17%) ▫️JAVONTE WILLIAMS (17%) ▫️TETAIROA MCMILLAN (16%)

DFS + CHESS In Chess, we position pieces with strategic intent and leverage their strengths to gain an advantage. In DFS we do the same. Here's 6 Chess pieces Papy will be using in Week 6: PAWN – WR JA’LYNN POLK ($3,600) It’s the start of a new era in Boston with Drake Maye ($5,000) making the first start of his career. Maye is probably an upgrade over Brissett after he looked “good enough” in the preseason. Polk played 100% of the snaps last week, and you must imagine the Patriots are going to give him a chance to be their number one WR after they spent the 37th pick on him in April’s draft. What better time than to feature him than Maye’s first start? It’s not as if Polk hasn’t been involved the past two weeks. He’s seen 6 and 7 targets, but he just hasn’t done anything with them. The change at QB could be the change Polk needs, and it’s difficult to find a guy who could see 8-10 targets priced like a punt. He’s also currently projected to draw almost no ownership, which is strange because there is an abundance of value on this slate. I’m going to use Polk as a one-off salary saver in a variety of different lineups. KNIGHT – RB BUCKY IRVING ($5,400) It’s Bucky week! With the news that Rachaad White is doubtful, Bucky Irving becomes the Bucs new lead back. Bucky had already worked his way into a meaningful role behind White and caused a frustrating split backfield. Without White, we can expect Bucky to look like, well, White from last year. The nice thing about Bucky is that he might be good at football, which has always been in question with White. The Bucs backfield has been a lucrative place, yielding over 20 combined running back opportunities the past two weeks. All those touches in one player’s hands (again, think last year’s White) are worth a lot in fantasy. Throw in that Bucky is mispriced because White wasn’t expected to miss when pricing was set, and this becomes an easy play.  Bucky’s ownership will be high, but on a slate without a ton of value, sometimes you must take what’s there. BISHOP – WR TERRY MCLAURIN ($6,400) Terry is finally scary after getting competent quarterback play. He has settled into a reasonable expectation of 8-10 targets, and that range is elevated this week because of the pass funnel matchup and game environment. The Ravens run defense has been a brick wall, and there is no reason to bang your head against it. With Jayden Daniels ($7,300) playing well, but also priced into the elite tier, his moderately priced WR1 makes a lot of sense. It’s fair to bump F1’s target expectation up to 10-12 in this matchup, and because the game environment is explosive, he has clear paths to monster 15 plus target game. That’s a lot of upside with a strong floor to be able to roster for a moderate price. Everyone in this game will rightly be popular but if F1 puts up 100 yards and a score, you’re going to want him in your lineups. The current projections show F1 for 13% ownership, which feels low to me, but even if it ends up higher, I plan to use him in game stacks as well as a solo play in lineups that focus on other games. ROOK – WR DRAKE LONDON ($6,700) Every week feels like it’s “Pick your (fill in the blank team) week” and this week that title goes to the Falcons. We know the Falcons are going to score points against the Panthers. Everyone scores points against the Panthers. The only question is, “How will the Falcons score points against the Panthers?” Do you want Bijan Robinson ($6,600), Darnell Mooney ($5,300), Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,300), or Kyle Pitts ($4,400)? They’re all viable and a huge percentage of rosters will have a Falcon in their lineup. I’m going with London, who has seen 13 // 12 // 9 targets in the past three weeks. After being taken away by Joey Porter Jr. in Week 1, London has posted DK scores of 36 // 12 // 18 // 17. That’s a nice ceiling and floor combination for a player who is priced below ($7,000). I understand the case for any of the Falcons and I’ll be mixing and matching them throughout my lineups. With London and Robinson being priced so close together, which one goes into which lineup might end up determining your week. The Falcons are a key decision point. QUEEN – RB JAHMYR GIBBS ($7,000) The Lions are coming out of a bye and playing in the highest total game of the slate. I mention the high total straight away because it’s curious that this game isn’t projected to draw high ownership. Sure, there are guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100) who are projected for the upper teens in ownership, but Gibbs is projected to be under 10% owned, with Sam LaPorta ($5,500), and Jameson Williams ($5,800) both expected to draw next to no ownership. Most of the Lions offense isn’t going to be played by many lineups, creating an opportunity to take one side of the highest total game in a lot of ways that will be unique. Gibbs didn’t see a target the past two weeks, and coming off the bye, I think the Lions will have more plays designed to get the ball in his hands out of the backfield. I’m going to use a variety of Lions stacks across my lineups and hope that this game takes off. KING – WR CEEDEE LAMB ($8,600) I don’t usually write up two players from the same game because I can cover more ground by talking about guys in different games, but this week, the Cowboys/Lions stand out for having the highest total and not carrying high ownership. Lamb is projected to be around 10% owned, which I can only attribute to his price. There isn’t a lot of value at the bottom of the slate (guys priced below $4,000) which makes it more difficult to make lineups with a player priced near $9,000. That doesn’t tell the whole story because Dak Prescott ($6,700) is only projected for 10% ownership. Jalen Tolbert ($5,000) is only expected to be around 10% owned, and KaVontae Turpin ($3,800) looks like an afterthought with sub 5% ownership. The only piece of the Dallas offense that is expected to be heavily owned is Jake Ferguson ($5,000). It’s easy to build stacks like Prescott + Lamb + Gibbs that give you exposure to the highest total game and will garner minimal combinational ownership. I’m going to stack this game coming and going, with the hopes that it explodes and becomes the must have spot of the week. To read @Papy324's End Game, you can find Papy's Pieces in The Scroll

The Chalk Build QB RB = Skattebo, Hampton + CMC WR = Meyers, London, Olave, + Nacua TE DEF Here's how to break free from the herd. 👇 MACRO SLATE VIEW 4 of the 5 highest-total games land late (JAX/SF, IND/LAR, BAL/KC, CHI/LV). Early games mostly lopsided — field is funneling late. HIGHEST PROJCTED CHALK 1. Puka Nacua: clear WR1, underpriced at $8K. 2. Christian McCaffrey: elite usage, massive ownership. 3. Jakobi Meyers: steady role, but inflated ownership profile. THE CHALK BUILD QB RB = Skattebo, Hampton + CMC WR = Meyers, London, Olave, + Nacua TE DEF Hampton + Skattebo rookie RBs = ~33% combined. Add CMC, Cook, Taylor, Bijan = another ~50%. WRs: Meyers, London, Olave + Nacua = heavy funnel between $5,100 and $5,700 paired with Nacua LEVERAGE The field is clustered on CMC + rookies + WR chalk which makes it easier to generate meaningful leverage. @HilowFF breaks down his favorite leverage angles in Week 4 for $1! 🔗 Link in our Bio

Mike Johnson's favorite DraftKings players for Week 18:

🚨Week 4 Chalk — First Run Currently Projecting for 15%+ Ownership DRAFTKINGS ▫️PUKA NACUA - 33% ▫️CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY - 32% ▫️JAKOBI MEYERS - 23% ▫️OMARION HAMPTON - 19% ▫️DAVANTE ADAMS - 18% ▫️DRAKE LONDON - 17% ▫️CAM SKATTEBO - 17% ▫️JONATHAN TAYLOR - 15% ▫️JAMES COOK - 15% FANDUEL ▫️CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY - 38% ▫️CAM SKATTEBO - 29% ▫️PUKA NACUA - 26% ▫️JAKOBI MEYERS - 24% ▫️TETAIROA MCMILLAN - 22% ▫️JAMES COOK - 19% ▫️OMARION HAMPTON - 18% ▫️BROCK BOWERS - 17% ▫️BUCKY IRVING - 17% ▫️JAHMYR GIBBS - 17% ▫️BIJAN ROBINSON - 16% ▫️ASHTON JEANTY - 16% ▫️DAVANTE ADAMS - 15% For constantly updated ownership check out the OWS One Week pass for only $1 🔥 (Link in Bio)

Low-Ownership. High-Ceiling. This Archetype Wins Tournaments 8 Contrarian Plays for Week 13: