Politics Editor for the Washington @Monthly. Also, contributor @politico @realclearnews, @DMZShow, When America Worked podcast. (Avi by @Jess_Sassenach.)
Northampton, MA
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For the debut episode of my history podcast "When America Worked," I delve into to the story of Edward Stettinius and the creation of the UN
It's a story with sex, spying, betrayal and, most importantly, bipartisanship and compromise
You can listen here scherable.com/whenamericaworâŚ
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JD Vance yesterday: "We have to stop getting so offended at every little thing in the United States of America. I'm so over it."
This is disgusting. Kamala Harris and her boss Joe Biden are attacking half of the country.
There's no excuse for this. I hope Americans reject it.
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A seminal moment in the history of the Republican Party, which eventually chose the path of the woman in red
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AZ can't be recounted (Campaigns can't ask for recounts, and Biden's margin is too big for an automatic recount.)
AZ gives Biden 270 EVs without PA & GA.
In other words, all the litigation in PA & GA can't change the outcome.
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I'm seeing a lot of "cancel the debates" but the next debate is a town hall and Trump should absolutely be subjected to the questions of real voters.
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Democrats after losing by 2 points: Our brand is in ashes. We need a complete overhaul.
Republicans after losing by 4.5 points: Let's run the same guy again.
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What messaging worked in Kansas? Let's look at the ads from the winning "NO" team...
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The cruelest cut: Trump lost 4 of the top 5 states for boat ownership (CA, MI, MN and WI)
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Senate Republicans have a 6-3 Supreme Court and still act like they've been treated unfairly in the nominations game. Just an amazing commitment to grievance politics.
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For someone oft-derided as past his prime, Biden going off-script and negotiating Social Security and Medicare on live TV is a uniquely agile SOTU moment
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So the anti-DNC protests were a bust and AOC lit up the conventional hall with a unifying speech effusively praising the Democratic nominee.
This ainât 2016.
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2016: Why didn't Hillary Clinton campaign in Wisconsin?!
2024: Why did Kamala Harris campaign in Wisconsin instead of going to a white tie dinner in New York City?!
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* Inflation since last June down from 9.1 to 4.0%
* Border crossing from month prior down 70%
* Fentanyl seizure in â22 3x more than â20
* Murder in â23, to date, down 12%
The GOP narrative doesnât add up. Me in âŚ@monthlyâŠ: washingtonmonthly.com/2023/0âŚ
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If Biden should release all of the private communications of the course of his entire career, so should Trump.
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Michael Moore, just now on MSNBC, said he was âshockedâ that Biden didnât âswing to the rightâ and pick Susan Rice, and instead âswung to the leftâ and picked Kamala Harris.
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I don't really care about this sort of thing, but if Biden did it, there would be a slew of tweets from Trump campaign staff suggesting Biden was deteriorating before our very eyes, and the clip would end up in its ads.
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Amazing how folks who say Harris should do more interviews find a way to hate every interview she does
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If Iâm Buttigieg, and my internal polling shows me getting very few delegates on Tuesday, better to drop out Sunday and endorse Biden, than after a Tuesday humiliation that undercuts Bidenâs ability to consolidate
He can get a cabinet post in a Biden WH, but not a Sanders WH
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Who in the Republican Party will take a stand against cancel culture and confirm Neera Tanden?
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âI don't wear masks like him. Every time you see him, he's got a mask. He could be speaking 200 feet away from them and he shows up with the biggest mask Iâve ever seen.â
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One theme: labelling the proposed amendment as a "government mandate." In this ad the word abortion is not said:
"It's a strict government mandate designed to interfere with private medical decisions ... Kansans don't want another government mandate."
piped.video/watch?v=3hNaOFXeâŚ
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This ad features a male doctor:
"Do no harm. That's the oath we take as doctors. But now the government wants to force doctors ...to break that oath ...It's a government mandate that could ban all abortions with no exceptions, even rape and incest"
piped.video/watch?v=6FdBYQiPâŚ
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This ad features a mother talking about an abortion needed to save her life:
"It's an impossible choice ... I had a three year old son at the time and a husband ... if I didn't have an abortion they would be without their mother and their wife"
piped.video/watch?v=_oAyjCsEâŚ
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Biden '24 (preliminary) vs. Obama '12 primary results
AL
Biden 90%
Obama 84%
AR
Biden 90%
Obama 58%
MA
Biden 82%
Obama 81%
NC
Biden 88%
Obama 79%
OK
Biden 73%
Obama 57%
TN
Biden 93%
Obama 89%
TX
Obama 88%
Biden 86%
VT
Obama 98%
Biden 89%
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Two months ago, a jury found Trump liable for sexual abuse.
Beyond the initial aftermath, Iâm not aware of a single mention of the verdict by an opposing candidate, or by a journalist posing a question to a candidate.
Just completely memory-holed.
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Mock every Kamala misstep if you want, but in 4-8 years, she will have immensely more experience navigating the most politically tricky issues than anybody else who might run for president
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Iâm not inclined to deem any particular poll as incorrect but I am confident Arizona did not experience a 10-point margin shift in the past month
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This ad features a Catholic grandmother:
"Growing up Catholic, we didn't talk about abortion. But now it's on the ballot ... If it were my granddaughter, I wouldn't want the government making that decision for her."
piped.video/watch?v=gKeCl5fVâŚ
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Sara Gideon 43%
Susan Collins 42%
NEW: Collins faces a tough reelection race, new poll from Colby shows wsj.com/articles/susan-colliâŚ
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Congressional generic ballot, Marist
April
Republican 47%
Democratic 44%
June
Democratic 48%
Republican 41%
A 10-point swing to the Democrats post-Dobbs npr.org/2022/06/27/110773363âŚ
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And this one features "a pastor for over 50 years"
"As Christians we are instructed to love one another. We do so when we respect and trust women as God does. I'm voting No ... because it replaces religious freedom with government control."
piped.video/watch?v=NNSVYn6GâŚ
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This ad emphasizes existing abortion rules to suggest the amendment is "extreme and goes too far":
"Abortion is already highly regulated in Kansas ... Taxpayer funding for abortion: outlawed. Abortion after viability: banned. Parental consent: required."
piped.video/watch?v=3DLaTQuLâŚ
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Joe Biden promised a return to normalcy and the revival of bipartisanship.
He delivered.
My Washington @monthly budget deal analysis: washingtonmonthly.com/2023/0âŚ
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Here's another that doesn't mention abortion directly:
"It gives government more power over your privacy and your personal medical decisions. Don't let politicians take away your freedom."
piped.video/watch?v=Vq0vUDIAâŚ
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Why is a New York Times opinion columnist retweeting Donald Trumpâs post of deceptively edited Joe Biden video?
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Notable from Biden yesterday:
"[Kamala] Harris [has] been able to generate more than $3.2 billion from the private sector to create jobs and opportunities in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala to help people stay in their own countries"
whitehouse.gov/briefing-roomâŚ
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If DeSantis wins re-election, after governing as a relentless far right culture warrior, Iâd be inclined to stop referring to Florida as a swing state and Democrats should seriously question spending $100M+ there again in 2024
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This ad is a response ad poking holes in the pro-life ad campaign: "supporters aren't telling you the truth"
piped.video/watch?v=La6Q26JDâŚ
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That all this is coming out one month after the election is a colossal failure of journalism and opposition research. The screenshots donât even come close to covering everything. nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregâŚ
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Disinfo from the Trump campaign. This flagrantly and dishonestly cuts Biden off.
What Biden actually said: "We can only re-elect Donald Trump if, in fact, we get engaged in this circular firing squad here."
10 minute mark: piped.video/watch?v=IUCA4qg8âŚ
Sleepy Joeđ¤in St. Louis, Missouri today:
âWe can only re-elect @realDonaldTrump.â
#KAG2020LandslideVictoryđşđ¸
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â October debate
â 60 Minutes
â CNN town hall
â CNBC
âď¸Saudi-owned propaganda TV network
In the final stretch of a tight presidential race, Donald Trump is making an unusual move: he's sitting down for an interview with a Saudi government-owned news channel. The interview comes as his family's business ties with the kingdom have grown.
globelynews.com/americas/truâŚ
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1. Lincoln plant was never going to Mexico freep.com/story/money/cars/fâŚ
2. Ford told Trump this weeks ago autonews.com/article/2016100âŚ
Just got a call from my friend Bill Ford, Chairman of Ford, who advised me that he will be keeping the Lincoln plant in Kentucky - no Mexico
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The worst thing about âDefund the Policeâ is not the electoral impact but the policy impact
We had an amazing moment of consensus in the aftermath of George Floyd that couldâve been leveraged for real reform
Instead we fed the forces of polarization & threw the consensus away
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Poverty rate
1983: 15.2%
2021: 11.6%
census.gov/data/tables/time-âŚ
Homicide rate (per 100K pop.)
1980: 10.4
2021: 8.2
cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2019/0âŚ
cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortaâŚ
Do you remember when you were growing up, do you remember how simple life was, how easy it felt? It was about faith, family, and country. We can have that again, but to do that, we must vote Joe Biden out. #RTM2023
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âFormer Speaker Nancy Pelosi, convinced Biden will lose, has been working the phones since June 27 in hopes of finding a way to ease him off the ticket.â politico.com/news/magazine/2âŚ
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People who have said they will vote for Joe Biden:
Bernie Sanders
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Cornel West
David Sirota
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Reminder that this is the first presidential campaign in history featuring an all-Ivy League Republican ticket and an all-non-Ivy League Democratic ticket
Walz: Look, folks, in the heartland and in Nebraska and in Minnesota, we don't need a Yale educated philosophy major backed by Billionaire venture capitalists to tell us who we are. We know who we are.
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Young voters thinking about abandoning the Democratic Party over the Middle East crisis might want to check out this Republican debate first
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âAmong voters under age 35, Trump leads Biden in the new Post-ABC poll by 20 pointsâ washingtonpost.com/politics/âŚ
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The notion that Biden is suffering from any sort of mental or physical decline is clearly debunked in this interview
President Biden on his old Senate colleague Joe Lieberman working with No Labels to explore a potential third-party candidacy in 2024:
"it's going to help the other guy. And he knows."
piped.video/NfU931HBWvQ?si=1rK5âŚ
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Check out my @monthly analysis of the Kansas abortion rights victory here: washingtonmonthly.com/2022/0âŚ
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I think it smart for Ossoff and Warnock to campaign as a team.
They will be attacked as a team, and if they tried to run independently, it would give a vibe that they had reason to mistrust each other.
Besides, it'll be a nationalized race and they will rise or fall together.
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Iâve long been a Pelosi defender. The GOP caricatured her as a San Francisco liberal. But she was an ice cold vote counter who made her mark corralling progressives to accept compromises. She is a master class in pragmatic leadership. Learn from her.
𧾠of my Pelosi workâŚ
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Since the Death Star began firing, Biden's lead in the Real Clear Politics average has grown 3.7 points
For nearly three years we have been building a juggernaut campaign (Death Star). It is firing on all cylinders. Data, Digital, TV, Political, Surrogates, Coalitions, etc.
In a few days we start pressing FIRE for the first time.
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"...a poll commissioned by the Republican National Committee tested roughly 20 lines of attack against Mr. Biden ... None of the lines of attack significantly moved voter sentiment..." nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/poâŚ
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âFor all you knuckleheads on Fox who say that Biden canât put two sentences together, hereâs a news flash: He just put NATO together, Europe together and the whole Western alliance together â stretching from Canada up to Finland and all the way to Japanâ nytimes.com/2022/05/22/opiniâŚ
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The notion that Democrats said Blasey Ford should be believed without the need for any investigation is not accurate. The ask of Democrats at the time was for a thorough FBI investigation, and then they complained the FBI didnât talk to all key potential witnesses.
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U. of North Florida poll, FL reg voters
Trump 50
Biden 43
DeSantis 51
Biden 42
6 wk abortion ban, no exceptions
Support 22
Oppose 75
Concealed carry
Support 21
Oppose 77
Ban CRT/DEI on campus
Support 35
Oppose 61
unfporl.org/uploads/1/4/4/5/âŚ
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The quality of Cuomo's press conferences is eclipsing how good Newsom has been in containing the spread. California currently ranks 30th among the states in cases per capita.
â@GavinNewsom has led the way on the #coronavirus crisis & it has paid off.â
@cmarinucci of @politico says CA has flattened the curve more than other states because of its Govâs early actions.
Thatâs likely saving lives.
More from @TheIssueIsShow: piped.video/ZaszDptzrsE
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So Reality Winner is in prison recovering from COVID-19, in part because she wanted to warn us about Russian cyberattacks on election infrastructure in 2016, and sent the information to the absolute wrong person
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Total popular vote to date:
Biden + Bloomberg + Buttigieg + Klobuchar: 54.5%
Sanders + Warren: 41.3%
Imagine if the progressives consolidated last night like the moderates consolidated, who would have won?
Thatâs what we should be analyzing. I feel confident a united progressive movement would have allowed for us to #BuildTogether and win MN and other states we narrowly lost.
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Joe Biden: sundowning shell of a man ... but also omnipotent Anti-Christ who will terminate God
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Fav/Unfav, ABC/Ipsos
HARRIS
July 19-20: 35/46
July 26-27: 43/42
TRUMP
July 19-20: 40/51
July 26-27: 36/52
VANCE
July 19-20: 25/31
July 26-27: 24/39
ipsos.com/sites/default/fileâŚ
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UPDATED Virginia school districts keeping their mask mandates & defying Gov. Youngkin's executive order:
Accomack
Albemarle
Alexandria
Arlington
Buchanan
Caroline
Charlottesville
Colonial Beach
Colonial Heights
Fairfax
Fluvanna
Fredericksburg
Hampton
Harrisonburg
(continued...)
Virginia school districts keeping their mask mandates and defying Gov. Youngkin's executive order:
Alexandria
Arlington
Chesterfield
Fairfax
Henrico
Hopewell
Loudoun
Portsmouth
Prince William
Richmond
Roanoke
Stafford
*3rd update! Please let me know of any I may have missed.
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So CBS should lose its broadcast license and Fox shouldnât run any ads for Kamala Harris. Totally normal not weird not authoritarian stuff.
Trump: In the old days, Fox News didnât air negative ads about me. Itâs very rough. I donât think you should do that anymore. I love complaining
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If the 2020 Electoral College matches the 2018 House popular vote, it will look like this
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Violent crime rate down 20.3%, murder rate down 16.6%, during Obama administration fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crâŚ
Crime is out of control, and rapidly getting worse. Look what is going on in Chicago and our inner cities. Not good!
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When McConnell celebrated "Citizens United," he said, "For too long, some in this country have been deprived of full participation in the political process ... the Constitution protects their right to express themselves about political candidates and issues up until Election Day"
âStay out of politics,â Republican leader McConnell tells U.S. CEOs, warns of âconsequencesâ buff.ly/3rMcZGs
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696 executive branch positions require Senate confirmation.
For 662, Trump has not yet nominated anyone
washingtonpost.com/graphics/âŚ
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Today is March 5
I'll be clear - if my campaign is not viable after March 5th, I'll wrap it up and endorse the likely nominee - Biden or otherwise.
I will then campaign for them as vigorously as I'm campaigning now.
I'm not here for games - the goal is to maximize the odds of beating Trump.
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Two years ago Pete Davidson said Dan Crenshaw looked a "hit man in a porno movie" and he was treated like history's greatest monster
Dan Crenshaw is a globalist John McCain in an eyepatch who loves to party hardy while our country burns. PROTECT OUR ELECTION SYSTEM & OUR COUNTRY, NOT THE GOP SWAMP!
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Met with them before the rally. Opened the door to a meeting. Got heckled anyway.
Kamala Harris met with the co-founders of the Uncommitted movement who asked to meet with her about their request to halt weapons transfers to Israel to stop the carnage in Gaza âand she indicated she was openâ to the meeting and introduced them to her staff, reports @EricaLG
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July -> Late Aug/Sept natâl poll shifts
NYT: Trump +1 -> Trump +1
Quinnipiac: Trump +2 -> Harris +1
WSJ: Trump +2 -> Harris +1
Economist: Trump +3 -> Harris +2
Emerson: Trump +6 -> Harris +2
Morning Consult: Trump +2 -> Harris +3
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This is literally what they accused Hillary of doing with the Clinton Foundation
The bidding is still open--and the price keeps going up. U too can buy private access to Ivanka Trump, for a cause. nytimes.com/2016/12/15/us/poâŚ
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The Hunter pardon is obscuring a larger truth:
The Biden administration is one of the most ethical in history.
No indictments or convictions of its political appointees. No cabinet resignations because of accusations of impropriety.
More here: washingtonmonthly.com/2024/1âŚ
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Emerson IOWA poll
BIDEN 23%
Sanders 22%
Buttigieg 18%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 10%
All else <5
emersonpolling.reportablenewâŚ
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If I understand correctly, the GOP position is:
* Donald Trump should be President
* Bob Menendez should have his day in court
* Jamaal Bowman should be expelled from Congress immediately
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